+8 Jan 21 '28 165C-8 Jan 21 '28 240P+8 Dec 18 '26 90P448 days leftCSV ND 16.80entry $211 -27.5%CC-SS $209.38 (+37% vs spot)BE-SS $210.90 (+38% vs spot)
Spot
$152.98
CBOE 2026-10-30 00:39:55
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 23 Oct 2027
448 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
Holding as is costs about $10 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
The new expiry is still wide (worst leg spread 12% of mid, open interest as low as 140): work the order at mid, never natural.
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying✓ EXTEND
It fights for its income: the extra time pays for the roll
Since 2026-04-17 it has banked $10,274, $1,573/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $2,558/mo against a $2,224/mo floor and a $4,448/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $209 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $184 (+20% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $2,612/mo at COIN's realized keep of 67% (36 closed calls).
The record shows it fights: $2,558/mo earned against a modelled $2,612/mo, so FIGHT income counts toward the time.
Extending to Dec 15 '28 buys 11 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $41,920 if you keep, $79,058 after the roll; safe calls alone: $24,539 vs $48,550. Odds safe calls restart: 54% vs 52%.
At the record's pace the extra 11 months are worth about $27,684.
Earnings 2026-10-30 (1 days): sell no new income into it.
Today, if you keep it
Value now (mid)
-$39,548
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$52,988
Max loss from here
$80,452
Margin it holds (model)
$42,948
a close frees it; $55,763 on all COIN here
CC-SS
$209.38
safe call from $184
Net delta
+987 sh
notional $122,384
Theta
-$10/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$10.10
assignment LOW
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$42,714
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$52,988
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$10,274
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
-$39,548
legs at mid + call buyback +$0
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$10,761
expected; -$42,714 if closed today
Chance of break-even
29%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$80,452
40% of the $133,440 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$123,166
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (FIGHT included). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $42,948 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding trails closing by $10,995.
Recommended roll
BEST: cash + margin · also BEST WITH INCOME, MOST CASH
-$500
cash at mid today (natural -$11,240)
LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '28+11 months
SELL 8 Jan 21 '28 165C (close)
BUY 8 Jan 21 '28 240P (close)
BUY 8 Dec 15 '28 160C (open)
SELL 8 Dec 15 '28 250P (open)
Margin change
+$606
freed is good; IBKR: IBKR's margin engine answers only in US market hours (21:30-04:00 SGT)
Hedge extension (est.)
-$5,580
kept hedge carried to the new expiry
Income over the time bought
$17,019
actual: $1,573 a month x 11 months; covers 200% of the max loss it adds
Restart odds
54% → 52%
safe calls paying before expiry
Max loss from here
$88,952
+$8,500 vs keep
CC-SS
$210.59
now $209.38
CSV ND after
17.43
at a mid fill
If you're assigned
Odds of early assignment within 12 months: 71% The holder exercises once the stock is at or below $103 in 6 months..
Close everything now: -$39,548. Wait for assignment: -$31,464 (the put spread -$69,324, plus the 165C you keep, worth $37,860). About the same, and waiting keeps the call income.
On assignment: sell the shares and sell the hedge put (never exercise it): $69,324 more ($87 a share). Basis 103.46; the 165C alone has CC-SS $232.25 (now $209.38), break-even $268, margin about zero.
Calls afterwards (Dec 04 '26, 35d): a 165C (at or above the call) about $9,760 a cycle; a 185C (~0.30 delta) about $4,220 a cycle, but a rally can cost up to $0 a cycle. The 165C loses about $989 a month to time.
Ride the 165C: safe calls out-earn its decay.
Income outlook
Income history · since 2026-04-17
Banked since entry
$10,274
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$1,573/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$2,558/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$4,636
Oct 2026
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
$4,636
Oct
life pace $1,573/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$2,558/mo
EARNING ITS KEEP
floor $2,224
design $4,448
$2,558/mo earned, at least half of the $4,448/mo it is designed to earn and above its hedge
Scanner's best pick today
$1,980/mo
Banked so far
$10,274
Whole-life P/L
-$42,714
Time with a call written
69%
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
67%
CBOE 30-day 68%
Regime
NEUTRAL
RSI 43
Next earnings
2026-10-30
1 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$2,612/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 67% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $184
spot $153
Spot needs +20% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$41,920
Roll Dec 15 '28
$79,058
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
54%
Roll Dec 15 '28
52%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$24,539
Roll Dec 15 '28
$48,550
Months bought
11
Worth at the record's pace
$27,684
Engine state
FIGHTING
Roll choices on Dec 15 '28
Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.
BEST: cash + margin
Most cash received net of margin added (the 2026-10-22 rule): the recommended roll.
LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '28also BEST WITH INCOMEalso MOST CASH
Cash at mid
-$500
Margin change
+$606
Strikes
160C / -250P / +90P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$11,240
Hedge extension (est.)
-$5,580
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$37,137 (+$3,432/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$24,011 (+$2,219/mo)
Restart odds
52% (keep 54%)
Value incl. income
+$30,451
Max loss from here
$88,952 (+$8,500)
CC-SS
$210.59 (now $209.38)
Net delta
+985 sh (now +987)
CSV ND after
17.43
Worst spread / min OI
12% / 140
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 8 Jan 21 '28 165C (close)
BUY 8 Jan 21 '28 240P (close)
BUY 8 Dec 15 '28 160C (open)
SELL 8 Dec 15 '28 250P (open)
LEAST MARGIN
Largest drop (or smallest rise) in maintenance margin.
FULLDec 15 '28
Cash at mid
-$44,908
Margin change
-$3,472
Strikes
115C / -240P / +120P
Cash at natural
-$59,568
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$37,029 (+$3,422/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$22,271 (+$2,058/mo)
Restart odds
51% (keep 54%)
Value incl. income
-$4,407
Max loss from here
$101,360 (+$20,908)
CC-SS
$214.62 (now $209.38)
Net delta
+905 sh (now +987)
CSV ND after
72.94
Worst spread / min OI
17% / 17
Danger point
-58% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 8 Jan 21 '28 165C (close)
BUY 8 Jan 21 '28 240P (close)
SELL 8 Dec 18 '26 90P (close)
BUY 8 Dec 15 '28 115C (open)
SELL 8 Dec 15 '28 240P (open)
BUY 8 Dec 15 '28 120P (open)
LOWEST MAX LOSS
Smallest worst-case loss from here.
LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '28also SAME STRIKES
Cash at mid
-$6,560
Margin change
-$597
Strikes
165C / -240P / +90P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$16,360
Hedge extension (est.)
-$5,580
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$37,107 (+$3,429/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$23,460 (+$2,168/mo)
Restart odds
52% (keep 54%)
Value incl. income
+$25,565
Max loss from here
$87,012 (+$6,560)
CC-SS
$211.87 (now $209.38)
Net delta
+959 sh (now +987)
CSV ND after
25.00
Worst spread / min OI
10% / 96
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 8 Jan 21 '28 165C (close)
BUY 8 Jan 21 '28 240P (close)
BUY 8 Dec 15 '28 165C (open)
SELL 8 Dec 15 '28 240P (open)
INCOME ENGINE
Most expected income to the new expiry, FIGHT included (model).
LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '28
Cash at mid
-$3,660
Margin change
+$1,630
Strikes
150C / -250P / +90P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$13,280
Hedge extension (est.)
-$5,580
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$37,140 (+$3,432/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$24,560 (+$2,269/mo)
Restart odds
53% (keep 54%)
Value incl. income
+$26,270
Max loss from here
$92,112 (+$11,660)
CC-SS
$209.47 (now $209.38)
Net delta
+1003 sh (now +987)
CSV ND after
21.38
Worst spread / min OI
7% / 140
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 8 Jan 21 '28 165C (close)
BUY 8 Jan 21 '28 240P (close)
BUY 8 Dec 15 '28 150C (open)
SELL 8 Dec 15 '28 250P (open)
Side by side
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
KEEP
held
Jan 21 '28
165
240
90
-
-
-
-
-
54%
-
$80,452
$209.38
+987
BEST
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
160
250
90 (kept)
-$500
-$5,580
+$606
+$37,137 +$3,432/mo
+$24,011 +$2,219/mo
52%
+$30,451
$88,952
$210.59
+985
BEST WITH INCOME
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
160
250
90 (kept)
-$500
-$5,580
+$606
+$37,137 +$3,432/mo
+$24,011 +$2,219/mo
52%
+$30,451
$88,952
$210.59
+985
MOST CASH
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
160
250
90 (kept)
-$500
-$5,580
+$606
+$37,137 +$3,432/mo
+$24,011 +$2,219/mo
52%
+$30,451
$88,952
$210.59
+985
LEAST MARGIN
FULL
Dec 15 '28
115
240
120
-$44,908
-
-$3,472
+$37,029 +$3,422/mo
+$22,271 +$2,058/mo
51%
-$4,407
$101,360
$214.62
+905
LOWEST MAX LOSS
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
165
240
90 (kept)
-$6,560
-$5,580
-$597
+$37,107 +$3,429/mo
+$23,460 +$2,168/mo
52%
+$25,565
$87,012
$211.87
+959
INCOME ENGINE
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
150
250
90 (kept)
-$3,660
-$5,580
+$1,630
+$37,140 +$3,432/mo
+$24,560 +$2,269/mo
53%
+$26,270
$92,112
$209.47
+1003
SAME STRIKES
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
165
240
90 (kept)
-$6,560
-$5,580
-$597
+$37,107 +$3,429/mo
+$23,460 +$2,168/mo
52%
+$25,565
$87,012
$211.87
+959
Cost of waiting
The BEST roll done later instead of today (-$500 at mid). Black-Scholes at each leg's IV, aged and moved, anchored on today's market. Estimates.
Roll on
Days before expiry
Spot -30% ($107)
Spot +0% ($153)
Spot +30% ($199)
Today
448
-
-$500
-
2027-10-23
90
-$4,598
-$4,561
+$1,639
2027-12-07
45
-$5,296
-$7,542
+$2,051
How much time to buy
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
Jun 16 '28
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
140
220
90 (kept)
-$23,440
-$1,760
+$688
+$18,404 +$3,806/mo
+$12,096 +$2,501/mo
54%
-$7,484
$87,892
$209.42
+982
Dec 15 '28
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
160
250
90 (kept)
-$500
-$5,580
+$606
+$37,137 +$3,432/mo
+$24,011 +$2,219/mo
52%
+$30,451
$88,952
$210.59
+985
Jan 19 '29
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
150
250
90 (kept)
-$5,460
-$5,060
+$1,870
+$40,923 +$3,418/mo
+$27,067 +$2,261/mo
52%
+$28,533
$93,912
$209.54
+1001
Top 25 candidates on Dec 15 '28
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
1
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
160
250
90 (kept)
-$500
-$5,580
+$606
+$37,137 +$3,432/mo
+$24,011 +$2,219/mo
52%
+$30,451
$88,952
$210.59
+985
2
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
155
250
90 (kept)
-$3,480
-$5,580
+$1,380
+$37,139 +$3,432/mo
+$24,332 +$2,248/mo
53%
+$26,700
$91,932
$209.94
+994
3
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
150
250
90 (kept)
-$3,660
-$5,580
+$1,630
+$37,140 +$3,432/mo
+$24,560 +$2,269/mo
53%
+$26,270
$92,112
$209.47
+1003
4
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
165
240
90 (kept)
-$6,560
-$5,580
-$597
+$37,107 +$3,429/mo
+$23,460 +$2,168/mo
52%
+$25,565
$87,012
$211.87
+959
5
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
160
240
90 (kept)
-$6,860
-$5,580
-$341
+$37,120 +$3,430/mo
+$23,666 +$2,187/mo
52%
+$25,021
$87,312
$211.39
+967
6
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
145
250
90 (kept)
-$5,380
-$5,580
+$2,160
+$37,141 +$3,432/mo
+$24,827 +$2,294/mo
53%
+$24,021
$93,832
$208.92
+1012
7
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
140
250
90 (kept)
-$6,940
-$5,580
+$2,658
+$37,141 +$3,432/mo
+$25,085 +$2,318/mo
53%
+$21,963
$95,392
$208.38
+1021
8
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
155
240
90 (kept)
-$9,840
-$5,580
+$433
+$37,136 +$3,431/mo
+$23,952 +$2,213/mo
52%
+$21,283
$90,292
$210.72
+976
9
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
150
240
90 (kept)
-$10,020
-$5,580
+$683
+$37,139 +$3,432/mo
+$24,185 +$2,235/mo
52%
+$20,856
$90,472
$210.24
+985
10
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
135
250
90 (kept)
-$9,080
-$5,580
+$3,237
+$37,141 +$3,432/mo
+$25,341 +$2,341/mo
53%
+$19,244
$97,532
$207.85
+1030
11
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
145
240
90 (kept)
-$11,740
-$5,580
+$1,212
+$37,140 +$3,432/mo
+$24,460 +$2,260/mo
53%
+$18,608
$92,192
$209.67
+994
12
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
130
250
90 (kept)
-$10,000
-$5,580
+$3,645
+$37,140 +$3,432/mo
+$25,588 +$2,364/mo
54%
+$17,914
$98,452
$207.34
+1039
13
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
140
240
90 (kept)
-$13,300
-$5,580
+$1,711
+$37,141 +$3,432/mo
+$24,726 +$2,285/mo
53%
+$16,550
$93,752
$209.13
+1003
14
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
150
230
90 (kept)
-$15,520
-$5,580
-$504
+$37,123 +$3,430/mo
+$23,730 +$2,193/mo
52%
+$16,527
$87,972
$211.24
+967
15
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
145
230
90 (kept)
-$17,240
-$5,580
+$26
+$37,137 +$3,432/mo
+$23,978 +$2,216/mo
52%
+$14,292
$89,692
$210.66
+976
16
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
135
240
90 (kept)
-$15,440
-$5,580
+$2,290
+$37,141 +$3,432/mo
+$24,989 +$2,309/mo
53%
+$13,831
$95,892
$208.58
+1012
17
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
130
240
90 (kept)
-$16,360
-$5,580
+$2,698
+$37,141 +$3,432/mo
+$25,244 +$2,333/mo
53%
+$12,503
$96,812
$208.05
+1021
18
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
140
230
90 (kept)
-$18,800
-$5,580
+$524
+$37,139 +$3,432/mo
+$24,254 +$2,241/mo
52%
+$12,235
$91,252
$210.10
+985
19
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
135
230
90 (kept)
-$20,940
-$5,580
+$1,103
+$37,140 +$3,432/mo
+$24,527 +$2,266/mo
53%
+$9,517
$93,392
$209.54
+994
20
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
130
230
90 (kept)
-$21,860
-$5,580
+$1,511
+$37,141 +$3,432/mo
+$24,792 +$2,291/mo
53%
+$8,190
$94,312
$208.99
+1003
21
FULL
Dec 15 '28
130
240
105
-$32,548
-
-$3,225
+$37,029 +$3,422/mo
+$22,278 +$2,058/mo
51%
+$7,706
$101,000
$214.61
+908
22
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
120
240
90 (kept)
-$20,640
-$5,580
+$3,817
+$37,139 +$3,432/mo
+$25,733 +$2,378/mo
54%
+$7,102
$101,092
$207.03
+1040
23
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
140
220
90 (kept)
-$24,820
-$5,580
-$295
+$37,130 +$3,431/mo
+$23,850 +$2,204/mo
52%
+$7,026
$89,272
$210.96
+966
24
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
135
220
90 (kept)
-$26,960
-$5,580
+$284
+$37,138 +$3,432/mo
+$24,113 +$2,228/mo
52%
+$4,315
$91,412
$210.38
+975
25
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
130
220
90 (kept)
-$27,880
-$5,580
+$692
+$37,140 +$3,432/mo
+$24,387 +$2,253/mo
53%
+$2,988
$92,332
$209.82
+984
How this was built
851 rolls on the real strikes of Jun 16 '28, Dec 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 80 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($210.90), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.21), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (67%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 03:50. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.