+8 Jan 21 '28 165C-8 Jan 21 '28 240P+8 Dec 18 '26 90P448 days leftCSV ND 16.80entry $211 -33.2%CC-SS $213.74 (+52% vs spot)BE-SS $210.90 (+50% vs spot)
Spot
$140.85
CBOE 2026-10-30 13:50:13
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 23 Oct 2027
448 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
Short put deep in the money with $8 of time value (85% of a year's carry on the strike): assignment risk is real; check it weekly.
Holding as is costs about $23 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
The new expiry is still wide (worst leg spread 15% of mid, open interest as low as 0): work the order at mid, never natural.
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying✓ EXTEND
It fights for its income: the extra time pays for the roll
Since 2026-04-17 it has banked $10,274, $1,573/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $2,558/mo against a $2,224/mo floor and a $4,448/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $214 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $184 (+31% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $2,650/mo at COIN's realized keep of 67% (36 closed calls).
The record shows it fights: $2,558/mo earned against a modelled $2,650/mo, so FIGHT income counts toward the time.
Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 12 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $42,576 if you keep, $84,655 after the roll; safe calls alone: $22,174 vs $48,398. Odds safe calls restart: 46% vs 44%.
At the record's pace the extra 12 months are worth about $30,629.
Today, if you keep it
Value now (mid)
-$56,168
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$69,608
Max loss from here
$63,832
Margin it holds (IBKR)
$41,369
a close frees it; model $41,349; $54,305 on all COIN here
CC-SS
$213.74
safe call from $184
Net delta
+986 sh
notional $112,680
Theta
-$23/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$8.15
assignment WATCH
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$59,334
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$69,608
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$10,274
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
-$56,168
legs at mid + call buyback +$0
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$18,369
expected; -$59,334 if closed today
Chance of break-even
25%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$63,832
52% of the $133,440 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$123,166
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (FIGHT included). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $41,349 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding trails closing by $385.
Recommended roll
BEST: cash + margin · also BEST WITH INCOME, MOST CASH, LEAST MARGIN, LOWEST MAX LOSS, SAME STRIKES
-$6,220
cash at mid today (natural -$17,440)
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29+12 months
SELL 8 Jan 21 '28 165C (close)
BUY 8 Jan 21 '28 240P (close)
BUY 8 Jan 19 '29 165C (open)
SELL 8 Jan 19 '29 240P (open)
Margin change (IBKR)
-$427
asked at 21:53; model -$1,518, this underlying only
Hedge extension (est.)
-$5,720
kept hedge carried to the new expiry
Income over the time bought
$18,830
actual: $1,573 a month x 12 months; covers 303% of the max loss it adds
Restart odds
46% → 44%
safe calls paying before expiry
Max loss from here
$70,052
+$6,220 vs keep
CC-SS
$217.83
now $213.74
CSV ND after
24.58
at a mid fill
If you're assigned
Odds of early assignment within 12 months: 75% The holder exercises once the stock is at or below $101 in 6 months..
Close everything now: -$56,168. Wait for assignment: -$49,648 (the put spread -$78,768, plus the 165C you keep, worth $29,120). About the same, and waiting keeps the call income.
On assignment: sell the shares and sell the hedge put (never exercise it): $78,768 more ($98 a share). Basis 115.26; the 165C alone has CC-SS $250.65 (now $213.74), break-even $280, margin about zero.
Calls afterwards (Dec 04 '26, 35d): a 165C (at or above the call) about $4,340 a cycle; a 160C (~0.30 delta) about $5,280 a cycle, but a rally can cost up to $4,000 a cycle. The 165C loses about $967 a month to time.
Ride the 165C: safe calls out-earn its decay.
Income outlook
Income history · since 2026-04-17
Banked since entry
$10,274
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$1,573/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$2,558/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$4,636
Oct 2026
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
$4,636
Oct
life pace $1,573/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$2,558/mo
EARNING ITS KEEP
floor $2,224
design $4,448
$2,558/mo earned, at least half of the $4,448/mo it is designed to earn and above its hedge
Scanner's best pick today
$1,980/mo
Banked so far
$10,274
Whole-life P/L
-$42,714
Time with a call written
69%
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
75%
CBOE 30-day 69%
Regime
PULLBACK
RSI 39
Next earnings
2027-02-11
104 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$2,650/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 67% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $184
spot $141
Spot needs +31% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$42,576
Roll Jan 19 '29
$84,655
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
46%
Roll Jan 19 '29
44%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$22,174
Roll Jan 19 '29
$48,398
Months bought
12
Worth at the record's pace
$30,629
Engine state
FIGHTING
Roll choices on Jan 19 '29
Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.
BEST: cash + margin
Most cash received net of margin added (the 2026-10-22 rule): the recommended roll.
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29also BEST WITH INCOMEalso MOST CASHalso LEAST MARGINalso LOWEST MAX LOSSalso SAME STRIKES
Cash at mid
-$6,220
Margin change
-$1,518
Strikes
165C / -240P / +90P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$17,440
Hedge extension (est.)
-$5,720
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$42,079 (+$3,514/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$26,224 (+$2,190/mo)
Restart odds
44% (keep 46%)
Value incl. income
+$31,657
Max loss from here
$70,052 (+$6,220)
CC-SS
$217.83 (now $213.74)
Net delta
+962 sh (now +986)
CSV ND after
24.58
Worst spread / min OI
15% / 0
Order legs
SELL 8 Jan 21 '28 165C (close)
BUY 8 Jan 21 '28 240P (close)
BUY 8 Jan 19 '29 165C (open)
SELL 8 Jan 19 '29 240P (open)
INCOME ENGINE
Most expected income to the new expiry, FIGHT included (model).
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$17,020
Margin change
+$2,193
Strikes
125C / -240P / +90P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$27,840
Hedge extension (est.)
-$5,720
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$42,142 (+$3,520/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$27,528 (+$2,299/mo)
Restart odds
46% (keep 46%)
Value incl. income
+$17,209
Max loss from here
$80,852 (+$17,020)
CC-SS
$212.36 (now $213.74)
Net delta
+1040 sh (now +986)
CSV ND after
38.08
Worst spread / min OI
10% / 0
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 8 Jan 21 '28 165C (close)
BUY 8 Jan 21 '28 240P (close)
BUY 8 Jan 19 '29 125C (open)
SELL 8 Jan 19 '29 240P (open)
Side by side
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
KEEP
held
Jan 21 '28
165
240
90
-
-
-
-
-
46%
-
$63,832
$213.74
+986
BEST
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
165
240
90 (kept)
-$6,220
-$5,720
-$1,518
+$42,079 +$3,514/mo
+$26,224 +$2,190/mo
44%
+$31,657
$70,052
$217.83
+962
BEST WITH INCOME
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
165
240
90 (kept)
-$6,220
-$5,720
-$1,518
+$42,079 +$3,514/mo
+$26,224 +$2,190/mo
44%
+$31,657
$70,052
$217.83
+962
MOST CASH
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
165
240
90 (kept)
-$6,220
-$5,720
-$1,518
+$42,079 +$3,514/mo
+$26,224 +$2,190/mo
44%
+$31,657
$70,052
$217.83
+962
LEAST MARGIN
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
165
240
90 (kept)
-$6,220
-$5,720
-$1,518
+$42,079 +$3,514/mo
+$26,224 +$2,190/mo
44%
+$31,657
$70,052
$217.83
+962
LOWEST MAX LOSS
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
165
240
90 (kept)
-$6,220
-$5,720
-$1,518
+$42,079 +$3,514/mo
+$26,224 +$2,190/mo
44%
+$31,657
$70,052
$217.83
+962
INCOME ENGINE
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
125
240
90 (kept)
-$17,020
-$5,720
+$2,193
+$42,142 +$3,520/mo
+$27,528 +$2,299/mo
46%
+$17,209
$80,852
$212.36
+1040
SAME STRIKES
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
165
240
90 (kept)
-$6,220
-$5,720
-$1,518
+$42,079 +$3,514/mo
+$26,224 +$2,190/mo
44%
+$31,657
$70,052
$217.83
+962
Cost of waiting
The BEST roll done later instead of today (-$6,220 at mid). Black-Scholes at each leg's IV, aged and moved, anchored on today's market. Estimates.
Roll on
Days before expiry
Spot -30% ($99)
Spot +0% ($141)
Spot +30% ($183)
Today
448
-
-$6,220
-
2027-10-23
90
-$12,682
-$13,003
-$6,442
2027-12-07
45
-$13,089
-$16,265
-$8,231
How much time to buy
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
Jan 19 '29
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
165
240
90 (kept)
-$6,220
-$5,720
-$1,518
+$42,079 +$3,514/mo
+$26,224 +$2,190/mo
44%
+$31,657
$70,052
$217.83
+962
Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
1
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
165
240
90 (kept)
-$6,220
-$5,720
-$1,518
+$42,079 +$3,514/mo
+$26,224 +$2,190/mo
44%
+$31,657
$70,052
$217.83
+962
2
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
160
240
90 (kept)
-$7,680
-$5,720
-$1,019
+$42,085 +$3,515/mo
+$26,393 +$2,204/mo
44%
+$29,705
$71,512
$217.08
+972
3
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
155
240
90 (kept)
-$8,300
-$5,720
-$705
+$42,090 +$3,515/mo
+$26,534 +$2,216/mo
44%
+$28,775
$72,132
$216.46
+981
4
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
150
240
90 (kept)
-$9,860
-$5,720
-$190
+$42,095 +$3,516/mo
+$26,698 +$2,230/mo
45%
+$26,704
$73,692
$215.72
+990
5
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
145
240
90 (kept)
-$11,440
-$5,720
+$323
+$42,098 +$3,516/mo
+$26,856 +$2,243/mo
45%
+$24,615
$75,272
$215.01
+1000
6
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
140
240
90 (kept)
-$12,480
-$5,720
+$728
+$42,101 +$3,516/mo
+$27,001 +$2,255/mo
45%
+$23,173
$76,312
$214.36
+1010
7
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
135
240
90 (kept)
-$13,960
-$5,720
+$1,216
+$42,116 +$3,517/mo
+$27,181 +$2,270/mo
45%
+$21,220
$77,792
$213.68
+1020
8
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
150
230
90 (kept)
-$16,440
-$5,720
-$878
+$42,087 +$3,515/mo
+$26,454 +$2,209/mo
44%
+$20,805
$72,272
$216.81
+971
9
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
130
240
90 (kept)
-$15,540
-$5,720
+$1,714
+$42,130 +$3,519/mo
+$27,357 +$2,285/mo
45%
+$19,155
$79,372
$213.01
+1030
10
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
125
240
90 (kept)
-$17,020
-$5,720
+$2,193
+$42,142 +$3,520/mo
+$27,528 +$2,299/mo
46%
+$17,209
$80,852
$212.36
+1040
How this was built
492 rolls on the real strikes of Jun 16 '28, Dec 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 10 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($210.90), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.24), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (75%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 21:34. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.