+5 Jan 21 '28 105C-5 Jan 21 '28 120P+5 Jan 15 '27 40P448 days leftCSV ND 20.45entry $128 -55.1%CC-SS $126.74 (+120% vs spot)BE-SS $125.45 (+118% vs spot)
Spot
$57.50
CBOE 2026-10-30 00:43:15
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 23 Oct 2027
448 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
Short put deep in the money with $1 of time value (30% of a year's carry on the strike): assignment risk is real; check it weekly.
Holding as is costs about $18 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
The new expiry is still wide (worst leg spread 17% of mid, open interest as low as 145): work the order at mid, never natural.
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying✓ EXTEND
It fights for its income: the extra time pays for the roll
Since 2026-05-31 it has banked $3,825, $745/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $62/mo against a $837/mo floor and a $1,674/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $127 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $104 (+80% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $989/mo at CRWV's realized keep of 79% (10 closed calls).
The record shows it fights: $745/mo earned against a modelled $989/mo, so FIGHT income counts toward the time.
Extending to Dec 15 '28 buys 11 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $14,557 if you keep, $27,779 after the roll; safe calls alone: $5,630 vs $14,342. Odds safe calls restart: 27% vs 28%.
At the record's pace the extra 11 months are worth about $8,063.
Coverage Insights: review the hedge in Rolls (no FIGHT or scanner pick to compare today).
Earnings 2026-11-10 (12 days): sell no new income into it.
Today, if you keep it
Value now (mid)
-$25,285
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$35,510
Max loss from here
$14,715
Margin it holds (model)
$7,819
a close frees it; $7,819 on all CRWV here
CC-SS
$126.74
safe call from $104
Net delta
+506 sh
notional $28,750
Theta
-$18/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$1.45
assignment WATCH
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$31,780
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$35,510
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$3,825
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
-$25,380
legs at mid + call buyback -$95
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$17,605
expected; -$31,780 if closed today
Chance of break-even
14%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$14,715
71% of the $50,225 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$46,495
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (FIGHT included). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $7,819 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding beats closing by $6,357.
Recommended roll
BEST: cash + margin
-$9,712
cash at mid today (natural -$12,825)
LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '28+11 months
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 105C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 120P (close)
BUY 5 Dec 15 '28 87.5C (open)
SELL 5 Dec 15 '28 105P (open)
Margin change
+$167
freed is good; IBKR: IBKR's margin engine answers only in US market hours (21:30-04:00 SGT)
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,800
kept hedge carried to the new expiry
Income over the time bought
$8,063
actual: $745 a month x 11 months; covers 364% of the max loss it adds
Restart odds
27% → 28%
safe calls paying before expiry
Max loss from here
$16,928
+$2,212 vs keep
CC-SS
$126.75
now $126.74
CSV ND after
39.88
at a mid fill
If you're assigned
Odds of early assignment within 12 months: 86% The holder exercises once the stock is at or below $50 in 6 months..
Close everything now: -$25,285. Wait for assignment: -$24,560 (the put spread -$30,372, plus the 105C you keep, worth $5,812). About the same, and waiting keeps the call income.
On assignment: sell the shares and sell the hedge put (never exercise it): $30,372 more ($61 a share). Basis 81.19; the 105C alone has CC-SS $161.94 (now $126.74), break-even $186, margin about zero.
Calls afterwards (Dec 04 '26, 35d): a 105C (at or above the call) about $213 a cycle; a 75C (~0.30 delta) about $1,480 a cycle, but a rally can cost up to $15,000 a cycle. The 105C loses about $327 a month to time.
Close the 105C at assignment, unless you want the upside bet.
Income outlook
Income history · since 2026-05-31
Banked since entry
$3,825
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$745/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$62/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$1,840
Jul 2026
May
Jun
$1,840
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
-$1,190
open
life pace $745/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$62/mo
NOT PAYING ITS HEDGE
floor $837
design $1,674
$62/mo earned against $331/mo of hedge carry
Banked so far
$3,825
Whole-life P/L
-$32,420
Time with a call written
73%
Call roll chain
0 rolls down to 77, $-2.38/sh
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
97%
CBOE 30-day 99%
Regime
PULLBACK
RSI 40
Next earnings
2026-11-10
12 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$989/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 79% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $104
spot $58
Spot needs +80% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$14,557
Roll Dec 15 '28
$27,779
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
27%
Roll Dec 15 '28
28%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$5,630
Roll Dec 15 '28
$14,342
Months bought
11
Worth at the record's pace
$8,063
Engine state
FIGHTING
Roll choices on Dec 15 '28
Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.
BEST: cash + margin
Most cash received net of margin added (the 2026-10-22 rule): the recommended roll.
LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '28
Cash at mid
-$9,712
Margin change
+$167
Strikes
87.5C / -105P / +40P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$12,825
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,800
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$13,222 (+$1,222/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$8,713 (+$805/mo)
Restart odds
28% (keep 27%)
Value incl. income
+$1,542
Max loss from here
$16,928 (+$2,212)
CC-SS
$126.75 (now $126.74)
Net delta
+507 sh (now +506)
CSV ND after
39.88
Worst spread / min OI
17% / 145
Danger point
-23% (now -23%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 105C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 120P (close)
BUY 5 Dec 15 '28 87.5C (open)
SELL 5 Dec 15 '28 105P (open)
BEST WITH INCOME
Cash + margin + the extra income the time buys, FIGHT included (model).
LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '28also MOST CASH
Cash at mid
-$9,375
Margin change
+$56
Strikes
90C / -105P / +40P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$12,350
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,800
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$13,202 (+$1,220/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$8,658 (+$800/mo)
Restart odds
27% (keep 27%)
Value incl. income
+$1,971
Max loss from here
$16,590 (+$1,875)
CC-SS
$127.37 (now $126.74)
Net delta
+502 sh (now +506)
CSV ND after
39.20
Worst spread / min OI
15% / 589
Danger point
-23% (now -23%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 105C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 120P (close)
BUY 5 Dec 15 '28 90C (open)
SELL 5 Dec 15 '28 105P (open)
LEAST MARGIN
Largest drop (or smallest rise) in maintenance margin.
LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '28
Cash at mid
-$29,338
Margin change
-$160
Strikes
50C / -65P / +40P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$32,000
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,800
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$13,211 (+$1,221/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$8,682 (+$802/mo)
Restart odds
28% (keep 27%)
Value incl. income
-$17,767
Max loss from here
$16,552 (+$1,838)
CC-SS
$127.10 (now $126.74)
Net delta
+489 sh (now +506)
CSV ND after
79.12
Worst spread / min OI
11% / 598
Danger point
-24% (now -23%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 105C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 120P (close)
BUY 5 Dec 15 '28 50C (open)
SELL 5 Dec 15 '28 65P (open)
LOWEST MAX LOSS
Smallest worst-case loss from here.
LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '28
Cash at mid
-$14,325
Margin change
-$17
Strikes
80C / -95P / +40P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$17,075
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,800
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$13,204 (+$1,220/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$8,664 (+$801/mo)
Restart odds
27% (keep 27%)
Value incl. income
-$2,903
Max loss from here
$16,540 (+$1,825)
CC-SS
$127.30 (now $126.74)
Net delta
+498 sh (now +506)
CSV ND after
49.10
Worst spread / min OI
11% / 1012
Danger point
-23% (now -23%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 105C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 120P (close)
BUY 5 Dec 15 '28 80C (open)
SELL 5 Dec 15 '28 95P (open)
INCOME ENGINE
Most expected income to the new expiry, FIGHT included (model).
LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '28
Cash at mid
-$16,550
Margin change
+$2,168
Strikes
42.5C / -105P / +40P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$19,825
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,800
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$13,451 (+$1,243/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$9,441 (+$872/mo)
Restart odds
31% (keep 27%)
Value incl. income
-$7,067
Max loss from here
$23,765 (+$9,050)
CC-SS
$117.27 (now $126.74)
Net delta
+609 sh (now +506)
CSV ND after
53.55
Worst spread / min OI
13% / 12
Danger point
-23% (now -23%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 105C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 120P (close)
BUY 5 Dec 15 '28 42.5C (open)
SELL 5 Dec 15 '28 105P (open)
SAME STRIKES
The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).
LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '28
Cash at mid
-$1,988
Margin change
+$193
Strikes
105C / -120P / +40P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$4,825
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,800
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$13,201 (+$1,220/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$8,654 (+$800/mo)
Restart odds
27% (keep 27%)
Value incl. income
+$9,221
Max loss from here
$16,702 (+$1,988)
CC-SS
$127.41 (now $126.74)
Net delta
+508 sh (now +506)
CSV ND after
24.43
Worst spread / min OI
18% / 828
Danger point
-23% (now -23%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 105C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 120P (close)
BUY 5 Dec 15 '28 105C (open)
SELL 5 Dec 15 '28 120P (open)
Side by side
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
KEEP
held
Jan 21 '28
105
120
40
-
-
-
-
-
27%
-
$14,715
$126.74
+506
BEST
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
87.5
105
40 (kept)
-$9,712
-$1,800
+$167
+$13,222 +$1,222/mo
+$8,713 +$805/mo
28%
+$1,542
$16,928
$126.75
+507
BEST WITH INCOME
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
90
105
40 (kept)
-$9,375
-$1,800
+$56
+$13,202 +$1,220/mo
+$8,658 +$800/mo
27%
+$1,971
$16,590
$127.37
+502
MOST CASH
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
90
105
40 (kept)
-$9,375
-$1,800
+$56
+$13,202 +$1,220/mo
+$8,658 +$800/mo
27%
+$1,971
$16,590
$127.37
+502
LEAST MARGIN
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
50
65
40 (kept)
-$29,338
-$1,800
-$160
+$13,211 +$1,221/mo
+$8,682 +$802/mo
28%
-$17,767
$16,552
$127.10
+489
LOWEST MAX LOSS
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
80
95
40 (kept)
-$14,325
-$1,800
-$17
+$13,204 +$1,220/mo
+$8,664 +$801/mo
27%
-$2,903
$16,540
$127.30
+498
INCOME ENGINE
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
42.5
105
40 (kept)
-$16,550
-$1,800
+$2,168
+$13,451 +$1,243/mo
+$9,441 +$872/mo
31%
-$7,067
$23,765
$117.27
+609
SAME STRIKES
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
105
120
40 (kept)
-$1,988
-$1,800
+$193
+$13,201 +$1,220/mo
+$8,654 +$800/mo
27%
+$9,221
$16,702
$127.41
+508
Cost of waiting
The BEST roll done later instead of today (-$9,712 at mid). Black-Scholes at each leg's IV, aged and moved, anchored on today's market. Estimates.
Roll on
Days before expiry
Spot -30% ($40)
Spot +0% ($58)
Spot +30% ($75)
Today
448
-
-$9,712
-
2027-10-23
90
-$10,083
-$10,704
-$10,908
2027-12-07
45
-$10,082
-$10,893
-$11,388
How much time to buy
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
Jun 16 '28
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
75
90
40 (kept)
-$16,425
-$1,088
+$33
+$6,570 +$1,359/mo
+$4,153 +$859/mo
28%
-$10,976
$16,140
$126.55
+499
Dec 15 '28
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
90
105
40 (kept)
-$9,375
-$1,800
+$56
+$13,202 +$1,220/mo
+$8,658 +$800/mo
27%
+$1,971
$16,590
$127.37
+502
Jan 19 '29
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
85
105
40 (kept)
-$10,312
-$1,975
+$325
+$14,582 +$1,218/mo
+$9,730 +$813/mo
28%
+$1,970
$17,528
$126.12
+511
Top 25 candidates on Dec 15 '28
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
1
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
90
105
40 (kept)
-$9,375
-$1,800
+$56
+$13,202 +$1,220/mo
+$8,658 +$800/mo
27%
+$1,971
$16,590
$127.37
+502
2
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
87.5
105
40 (kept)
-$9,712
-$1,800
+$167
+$13,222 +$1,222/mo
+$8,713 +$805/mo
28%
+$1,542
$16,928
$126.75
+507
3
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
82.5
105
40 (kept)
-$10,288
-$1,800
+$362
+$13,255 +$1,225/mo
+$8,810 +$814/mo
28%
+$805
$17,502
$125.62
+517
4
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
80
105
40 (kept)
-$10,512
-$1,800
+$444
+$13,270 +$1,226/mo
+$8,853 +$818/mo
28%
+$514
$17,728
$125.11
+523
5
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
75
105
40 (kept)
-$11,212
-$1,800
+$666
+$13,303 +$1,229/mo
+$8,946 +$827/mo
28%
-$375
$18,428
$123.96
+533
6
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
72.5
105
40 (kept)
-$11,488
-$1,800
+$759
+$13,317 +$1,231/mo
+$8,987 +$830/mo
29%
-$729
$18,702
$123.44
+539
7
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
82.5
100
40 (kept)
-$12,175
-$1,800
+$140
+$13,222 +$1,222/mo
+$8,713 +$805/mo
28%
-$893
$16,890
$126.75
+505
8
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
80
100
40 (kept)
-$12,400
-$1,800
+$221
+$13,238 +$1,223/mo
+$8,759 +$809/mo
28%
-$1,184
$17,115
$126.22
+511
9
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
67.5
105
40 (kept)
-$11,975
-$1,800
+$934
+$13,342 +$1,233/mo
+$9,065 +$838/mo
29%
-$1,367
$19,190
$122.43
+550
10
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
75
100
40 (kept)
-$13,100
-$1,800
+$443
+$13,272 +$1,226/mo
+$8,858 +$819/mo
28%
-$2,071
$17,815
$125.04
+521
11
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
65
105
40 (kept)
-$12,662
-$1,800
+$1,108
+$13,356 +$1,234/mo
+$9,113 +$842/mo
29%
-$2,215
$19,878
$121.78
+556
12
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
80
97.5
40 (kept)
-$13,600
-$1,800
+$182
+$13,228 +$1,222/mo
+$8,731 +$807/mo
28%
-$2,354
$17,065
$126.54
+504
13
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
72.5
100
40 (kept)
-$13,375
-$1,800
+$536
+$13,288 +$1,228/mo
+$8,902 +$823/mo
28%
-$2,424
$18,090
$124.51
+527
14
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
80
95
40 (kept)
-$14,325
-$1,800
-$17
+$13,204 +$1,220/mo
+$8,664 +$801/mo
27%
-$2,903
$16,540
$127.30
+498
15
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
60
105
40 (kept)
-$13,250
-$1,800
+$1,302
+$13,377 +$1,236/mo
+$9,187 +$849/mo
30%
-$2,975
$20,465
$120.78
+568
16
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
67.5
100
40 (kept)
-$13,862
-$1,800
+$711
+$13,317 +$1,230/mo
+$8,985 +$830/mo
29%
-$3,057
$18,578
$123.47
+538
17
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
75
97.5
40 (kept)
-$14,300
-$1,800
+$404
+$13,263 +$1,225/mo
+$8,833 +$816/mo
28%
-$3,241
$17,765
$125.35
+515
18
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
72.5
97.5
40 (kept)
-$14,575
-$1,800
+$497
+$13,279 +$1,227/mo
+$8,877 +$820/mo
28%
-$3,593
$18,040
$124.81
+521
19
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
75
95
40 (kept)
-$15,025
-$1,800
+$205
+$13,241 +$1,224/mo
+$8,769 +$810/mo
28%
-$3,788
$17,240
$126.10
+509
20
FULL
Dec 15 '28
75
105
40
-$16,510
-
+$649
+$13,170 +$1,217/mo
+$8,569 +$792/mo
27%
-$3,989
$23,725
$128.35
+515
21
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
65
100
40 (kept)
-$14,550
-$1,800
+$886
+$13,333 +$1,232/mo
+$9,036 +$835/mo
29%
-$3,902
$19,265
$122.81
+544
22
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
72.5
95
40 (kept)
-$15,300
-$1,800
+$298
+$13,257 +$1,225/mo
+$8,816 +$815/mo
28%
-$4,141
$17,515
$125.55
+515
23
FULL
Dec 15 '28
72.5
105
40
-$16,785
-
+$742
+$13,189 +$1,219/mo
+$8,622 +$797/mo
27%
-$4,338
$24,000
$127.77
+520
24
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
67.5
97.5
40 (kept)
-$15,062
-$1,800
+$672
+$13,309 +$1,230/mo
+$8,961 +$828/mo
29%
-$4,226
$18,528
$123.77
+532
25
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
55
105
40 (kept)
-$14,288
-$1,800
+$1,572
+$13,399 +$1,238/mo
+$9,265 +$856/mo
30%
-$4,260
$21,502
$119.71
+579
How this was built
613 rolls on the real strikes of Jun 16 '28, Dec 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 353 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($125.45), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.27), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (97%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 03:50. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.