+5 Jan 21 '28 105C-5 Jan 21 '28 120P+5 Jan 15 '27 40P448 days leftCSV ND 20.45entry $128 -55.1%CC-SS $126.74 (+120% vs spot)BE-SS $125.45 (+118% vs spot)
Spot
$57.50
CBOE 2026-10-30 00:43:15
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 23 Oct 2027
448 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
Short put deep in the money with $1 of time value (30% of a year's carry on the strike): assignment risk is real; check it weekly.
Holding as is costs about $18 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying✓ EXTEND
It fights for its income: the extra time pays for the roll
Since 2026-05-31 it has banked $3,825, $745/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $62/mo against a $837/mo floor and a $1,674/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $127 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $104 (+80% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $989/mo at CRWV's realized keep of 79% (10 closed calls).
The record shows it fights: $745/mo earned against a modelled $989/mo, so FIGHT income counts toward the time.
Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 12 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $14,557 if you keep, $29,094 after the roll; safe calls alone: $5,630 vs $15,231. Odds safe calls restart: 27% vs 27%.
At the record's pace the extra 12 months are worth about $8,921.
Coverage Insights: review the hedge in Rolls (no FIGHT or scanner pick to compare today).
Earnings 2026-11-10 (12 days): sell no new income into it.
Today, if you keep it
Value now (mid)
-$25,285
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$35,510
Max loss from here
$14,715
Margin it holds (model)
$7,819
a close frees it; $7,819 on all CRWV here
CC-SS
$126.74
safe call from $104
Net delta
+506 sh
notional $28,750
Theta
-$18/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$1.45
assignment WATCH
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$31,780
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$35,510
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$3,825
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
-$25,380
legs at mid + call buyback -$95
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$17,605
expected; -$31,780 if closed today
Chance of break-even
14%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$14,715
71% of the $50,225 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$46,495
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (FIGHT included). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $7,819 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding beats closing by $6,357.
Hold
No roll pays for itself: hold and keep writing calls
No roll's actual income ($745 a month, life to date (152 days)) covers 80% of the max loss it adds and of the cash it costs.
If you're assigned
Odds of early assignment within 12 months: 86% The holder exercises once the stock is at or below $50 in 6 months..
Close everything now: -$25,285. Wait for assignment: -$24,560 (the put spread -$30,372, plus the 105C you keep, worth $5,812). About the same, and waiting keeps the call income.
On assignment: sell the shares and sell the hedge put (never exercise it): $30,372 more ($61 a share). Basis 81.19; the 105C alone has CC-SS $161.94 (now $126.74), break-even $186, margin about zero.
Calls afterwards (Dec 04 '26, 35d): a 105C (at or above the call) about $213 a cycle; a 75C (~0.30 delta) about $1,480 a cycle, but a rally can cost up to $15,000 a cycle. The 105C loses about $327 a month to time.
Close the 105C at assignment, unless you want the upside bet.
Income outlook
Income history · since 2026-05-31
Banked since entry
$3,825
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$745/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$62/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$1,840
Jul 2026
May
Jun
$1,840
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
-$1,190
open
life pace $745/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$62/mo
NOT PAYING ITS HEDGE
floor $837
design $1,674
$62/mo earned against $331/mo of hedge carry
Banked so far
$3,825
Whole-life P/L
-$32,420
Time with a call written
73%
Call roll chain
0 rolls down to 77, $-2.38/sh
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
97%
CBOE 30-day 99%
Regime
PULLBACK
RSI 40
Next earnings
2026-11-10
12 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$989/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 79% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $104
spot $58
Spot needs +80% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$14,557
Roll Jan 19 '29
$29,094
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
27%
Roll Jan 19 '29
27%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$5,630
Roll Jan 19 '29
$15,231
Months bought
12
Worth at the record's pace
$8,921
Engine state
FIGHTING
Roll choices on Jan 19 '29
Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.
SAME STRIKES
The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$1,938
Margin change
+$191
Strikes
105C / -120P / +40P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$4,050
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,975
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$14,537 (+$1,214/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$9,602 (+$802/mo)
Restart odds
27% (keep 27%)
Value incl. income
+$10,434
Max loss from here
$16,652 (+$1,938)
CC-SS
$127.58 (now $126.74)
Net delta
+507 sh (now +506)
CSV ND after
24.32
Worst spread / min OI
4% / 174
Danger point
-23% (now -23%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 105C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 120P (close)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 105C (open)
SELL 5 Jan 19 '29 120P (open)
Side by side
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
KEEP
held
Jan 21 '28
105
120
40
-
-
-
-
-
27%
-
$14,715
$126.74
+506
SAME STRIKES
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
105
120
40 (kept)
-$1,938
-$1,975
+$191
+$14,537 +$1,214/mo
+$9,602 +$802/mo
27%
+$10,434
$16,652
$127.58
+507
Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
How this was built
613 rolls on the real strikes of Jun 16 '28, Dec 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 0 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($125.45), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.27), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (97%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 03:50. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.