+10 Jan 21 '28 45C-10 Jan 21 '28 60P+10 Dec 18 '26 20P448 days leftCSV ND 7.30entry $59 -57.1%CC-SS $59.60 (+135% vs spot)BE-SS $56.15 (+122% vs spot)
Spot
$25.34
CBOE 2026-10-30 13:49:37
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 23 Oct 2027
448 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
Short put deep in the money with $1 of time value (27% of a year's carry on the strike): assignment risk is real; check it weekly.
Holding as is costs about $15 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying⚔ HOLD AND FIGHT
Don't roll, don't close: holding and writing calls beats closing
Since 2026-05-31 it has banked $1,930, $325/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days -$402/mo against a $788/mo floor and a $1,577/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $60 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $52 (+107% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $564/mo at whole book's realized keep of 71% (664 closed calls).
The record shows it fights: $325/mo earned against a modelled $564/mo, so FIGHT income counts toward the time.
Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 12 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $8,037 if you keep, $15,763 after the roll; safe calls alone: $1,078 vs $3,999. Odds safe calls restart: 13% vs 20%.
At the record's pace the extra 12 months are worth about $3,887.
The roll costs more (cash and margin) than the income its extra time is expected to bring.
Coverage Insights: hold to expiry instead of buying back at a loss (your record: holding did better 39 of 54 times).
Holding to expiry instead (15 months, calls written all the way, FIGHT included): expected whole-life -$27,928 vs -$36,670 if closed today; 8% chance to finish at break-even or better; worst case -$45,615 (another $8,945 if the legs end at their worst and no call pays); 81% of the entry max loss ($47,300) is already taken.
Holding beats closing by about $1,446 on average, after charging it the $7,296 of margin a close would free: don't roll, don't close; keep writing calls.
Today, if you keep it
Value now (mid)
-$31,055
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$38,355
Max loss from here
$8,945
Margin it holds (IBKR)
$8,131
a close frees it; model $7,296; $7,296 on all ENPH here
CC-SS
$59.60
safe call from $52
Net delta
+1087 sh
notional $25,340
Theta
-$15/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$0.64
assignment WATCH
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$36,670
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$38,355
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$1,930
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
-$31,300
legs at mid + call buyback -$245
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$27,928
expected; -$36,670 if closed today
Chance of break-even
8%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$8,945
81% of the $47,300 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$45,615
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (FIGHT included). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $7,296 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding beats closing by $1,446.
Hold
No roll pays for itself: hold and keep writing calls
No roll's actual income ($325 a month, life to date (152 days)) covers 80% of the max loss it adds and of the cash it costs.
If you're assigned
Odds of early assignment within 12 months: 88% The holder exercises once the stock is at or below $22 in 6 months..
Close everything now: -$31,055. Wait for assignment: -$30,415 (the put spread -$34,290, plus the 45C you keep, worth $3,875). About the same, and waiting keeps the call income.
On assignment: sell the shares and sell the hedge put (never exercise it): $34,290 more ($34 a share). Basis 41.59; the 45C alone has CC-SS none ≤ 3x spot (now $59.60), break-even $87, margin about zero.
Calls afterwards (Dec 04 '26, 35d): a 29C (~0.30 delta) about $880 a cycle, but a rally can cost up to $16,000 a cycle. The 45C loses about $246 a month to time.
Close the 45C at assignment, unless you want the upside bet.
Income outlook
Income history · since 2026-05-31
Banked since entry
$1,930
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$325/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
-$402/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$1,980
Jul 2026
May
Jun
$1,980
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
$260
open
life pace $325/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
-$402/mo
NOT PAYING ITS HEDGE
floor $788
design $1,577
its calls LOST $402/mo net (closed + open marked to close)
Banked so far
$1,930
Time with a call written
6%
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
66%
CBOE 30-day 65%
Regime
OVERSOLD
RSI 33
Next earnings
2027-02-02
95 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$564/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 71% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $52
spot $25
Spot needs +107% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$8,037
Roll Jan 19 '29
$15,763
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
13%
Roll Jan 19 '29
20%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$1,078
Roll Jan 19 '29
$3,999
Months bought
12
Worth at the record's pace
$3,887
Engine state
FIGHTING
Roll choices on Jan 19 '29
Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.
SAME STRIKES
The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$19,325
Margin change
+$736
Strikes
25C / -45P / +20P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$21,650
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,675
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$7,726 (+$645/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$2,921 (+$244/mo)
Restart odds
20% (keep 13%)
Value incl. income
-$14,010
Max loss from here
$13,270 (+$4,325)
CC-SS
$58.71 (now $59.60)
Net delta
+1140 sh (now +1087)
CSV ND after
26.62
Worst spread / min OI
8% / 0
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 10 Jan 21 '28 45C (close)
BUY 10 Jan 21 '28 60P (close)
BUY 10 Jan 19 '29 25C (open)
SELL 10 Jan 19 '29 45P (open)
Side by side
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
KEEP
held
Jan 21 '28
45
60
20
-
-
-
-
-
13%
-
$8,945
$59.60
+1087
SAME STRIKES
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
45
20 (kept)
-$19,325
-$1,675
+$736
+$7,726 +$645/mo
+$2,921 +$244/mo
20%
-$14,010
$13,270
$58.71
+1140
Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
How this was built
13 rolls on the real strikes of Dec 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 0 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($56.15), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.28), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (66%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 21:34. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.