+10 Jan 21 '28 320C-10 Jan 21 '28 450P+10 Jan 21 '28 330P448 days leftCSV ND 136.00entry $465 -22.5%CC-SS $470.67 (+31% vs spot)BE-SS $456.00 (+27% vs spot)
Spot
$360.27
CBOE 2026-10-30 13:50:16
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 23 Oct 2027
448 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
Short put deep in the money with $1 of time value (7% of a year's carry on the strike): assignment risk is real; check it weekly.
Holding as is costs about $10 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying✓ EXTEND
It fights for its income: the extra time pays for the roll
Since 2026-02-11 it has banked $28,510, $2,849/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $638/mo against a $4,267/mo floor and a $8,533/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $471 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $452 (+26% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $3,499/mo at GLD's realized keep of 79% (18 closed calls).
The record shows it fights: $2,849/mo earned against a modelled $3,499/mo, so FIGHT income counts toward the time.
Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 12 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $49,005 if you keep, $95,679 after the roll; safe calls alone: $6,084 vs $18,947. Odds safe calls restart: 23% vs 30%.
At the record's pace the extra 12 months are worth about $34,111.
Coverage Insights: more income needs FIGHT's ladder or a rebuild in Rolls.
Today, if you keep it
Value now (mid)
-$2,925
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$138,925
Max loss from here
$117,075
Margin it holds (IBKR)
$83,107
a close frees it; model $80,157; $80,157 on all GLD here
CC-SS
$470.67
safe call from $452
Net delta
+1353 sh
notional $360,269
Theta
-$10/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$1.32
assignment WATCH
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$113,210
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$138,925
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$28,510
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
-$5,720
legs at mid + call buyback -$2,795
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$87,487
expected; -$113,210 if closed today
Chance of break-even
22%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$117,075
54% of the $256,000 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$230,285
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (FIGHT included). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $80,157 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding trails closing by $54,434.
Hold
No roll pays for itself: hold and keep writing calls
No roll's actual income ($2,849 a month, life to date (261 days)) covers 80% of the max loss it adds and of the cash it costs.
If you're assigned
Odds of early assignment within 12 months: 89% The holder exercises once the stock is at or below $354 in 6 months..
Close everything now: -$2,925. Wait for assignment: -$1,606 (the put spread -$73,281, plus the 320C you keep, worth $71,675). About the same, and waiting keeps the call income.
On assignment: sell the shares and sell the hedge put (never exercise it): $73,281 more ($73 a share). Basis 209.28; the 320C alone has CC-SS $512.60 (now $470.67), break-even $529, margin about zero.
Calls afterwards (Dec 04 '26, 35d): a 320C (at or above the call) about $42,700 a cycle; a 376C (~0.30 delta) about $4,725 a cycle, but a rally can cost up to $0 a cycle. The 320C loses about $669 a month to time.
Ride the 320C: safe calls out-earn its decay.
Income outlook
Income history · since 2026-02-11
Banked since entry
$28,510
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$2,849/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$638/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$8,000
Feb 2026
$8,000
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
$5,730
open
life pace $2,849/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$638/mo
BELOW DESIGN
floor $4,267
design $8,533
$638/mo earned pays the hedge but is under half of the $8,533/mo it is designed to earn
Banked so far
$28,510
Whole-life P/L
-$103,615
Time with a call written
100%
Call roll chain
6 rolls down to 394, $5.73/sh
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
23%
CBOE 30-day 23%
Regime
PULLBACK
RSI 36
FIGHT rate (model)
$3,499/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 79% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $452
spot $360
Spot needs +26% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$49,005
Roll Jan 19 '29
$95,679
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
23%
Roll Jan 19 '29
30%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$6,084
Roll Jan 19 '29
$18,947
Months bought
12
Worth at the record's pace
$34,111
Engine state
FIGHTING
Roll choices on Jan 19 '29
Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.
SAME STRIKES
The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).
FULLJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$24,550
Margin change
-$3,378
Strikes
320C / -450P / +330P
Cash at natural
-$34,750
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$46,675 (+$3,898/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$12,862 (+$1,074/mo)
Restart odds
30% (keep 23%)
Value incl. income
+$25,503
Max loss from here
$141,625 (+$24,550)
CC-SS
$483.88 (now $470.67)
Net delta
+1234 sh (now +1353)
CSV ND after
160.55
Worst spread / min OI
13% / 11
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 10 Jan 21 '28 320C (close)
BUY 10 Jan 21 '28 450P (close)
SELL 10 Jan 21 '28 330P (close)
BUY 10 Jan 19 '29 320C (open)
SELL 10 Jan 19 '29 450P (open)
BUY 10 Jan 19 '29 330P (open)
Side by side
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
KEEP
held
Jan 21 '28
320
450
330
-
-
-
-
-
23%
-
$117,075
$470.67
+1353
SAME STRIKES
FULL
Jan 19 '29
320
450
330
-$24,550
-
-$3,378
+$46,675 +$3,898/mo
+$12,862 +$1,074/mo
30%
+$25,503
$141,625
$483.88
+1234
Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
How this was built
81 rolls on the real strikes of Jun 16 '28, Dec 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 0 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($456.00), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.24), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (23%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 21:34. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.