+125 Jan 21 '28 37.5C-125 Jan 21 '28 37.5P+125 Jan 21 '28 17.5P448 days leftCSV ND 2.21entry $37 -53.4%CC-SS $35.29 (+105% vs spot)BE-SS $39.71 (+130% vs spot)
Spot
$17.25
CBOE 2026-10-30 01:46:44
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 23 Oct 2027
448 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
Short put deep in the money with $1 of time value (58% of a year's carry on the strike): assignment risk is real; check it weekly.
Holding as is costs about $88 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
The new expiry is still wide (worst leg spread 27% of mid, open interest as low as 18): work the order at mid, never natural.
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying⚔ HOLD AND FIGHT
Don't roll, don't close: holding and writing calls beats closing
Since 2025-08-05 it has banked $18,575, $920/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $4,300/mo against a $4,627/mo floor and a $9,254/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $35 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $29 (+69% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $6,472/mo at GLXY's realized keep of 72% (13 closed calls).
The record shows it fights: $4,300/mo earned against a modelled $6,472/mo, so FIGHT income counts toward the time.
Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 12 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $98,973 if you keep, $199,512 after the roll; safe calls alone: $41,701 vs $108,548. Odds safe calls restart: 29% vs 30%.
At the record's pace the extra 12 months are worth about $51,487.
The roll costs more (cash and margin) than the income its extra time is expected to bring.
Coverage Insights: write calls when a safe strike pays.
Holding to expiry instead (15 months, calls written all the way, FIGHT included): expected whole-life -$94,559 vs -$165,488 if closed today; 14% chance to finish at break-even or better; worst case -$263,800 (another $98,312 if the legs end at their worst and no call pays); 65% of the entry max loss ($277,625) is already taken.
Holding beats closing by about $34,903 on average, after charging it the $36,026 of margin a close would free: don't roll, don't close; keep writing calls.
Today, if you keep it
Value now (mid)
-$151,688
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$179,312
Max loss from here
$98,312
Margin it holds (model)
$36,026
a close frees it; $36,026 on all GLXY here
CC-SS
$35.29
safe call from $29
Net delta
+9759 sh
notional $215,625
Theta
-$88/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$0.88
assignment WATCH
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$165,488
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$179,312
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$18,575
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
-$156,438
legs at mid + call buyback -$4,750
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$94,559
expected; -$165,488 if closed today
Chance of break-even
14%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$98,312
65% of the $277,625 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$263,800
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (FIGHT included). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $36,026 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding beats closing by $34,903.
Recommended roll
BEST: cash + margin · also BEST WITH INCOME, MOST CASH, LEAST MARGIN, LOWEST MAX LOSS
-$165,750
cash at mid today (natural -$212,750)
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29+12 months
SELL 125 Jan 21 '28 37.5C (close)
BUY 125 Jan 21 '28 37.5P (close)
BUY 125 Jan 19 '29 25C (open)
SELL 125 Jan 19 '29 25P (open)
Margin change
-$1,327
freed is good; IBKR: IBKR's margin engine answers only in US market hours (21:30-04:00 SGT)
Hedge extension (est.)
-$17,188
kept hedge carried to the new expiry
Income over the time bought
$11,011
actual: $920 a month x 12 months; covers 116% of the max loss it adds
Restart odds
29% → 30%
safe calls paying before expiry
Max loss from here
$107,812
+$9,500 vs keep
CC-SS
$35.28
now $35.29
CSV ND after
15.47
at a mid fill
If you're assigned
Odds of early assignment within 12 months: 82% The holder exercises once the stock is at or below $13 in 6 months..
Close everything now: -$151,688. Wait for assignment: -$140,750 (the put spread -$181,250, plus the 37.5C you keep, worth $40,500). About the same, and waiting keeps the call income.
On assignment: sell the shares and sell the hedge put (never exercise it): $181,250 more ($14 a share). Basis 16.71; the 37.5C alone has CC-SS $41.16 (now $35.29), break-even $54, margin about zero.
Calls afterwards (Dec 04 '26, 35d): a 22C (~0.30 delta) about $11,250 a cycle, but a rally can cost up to $193,750 a cycle. The 37.5C loses about $2,662 a month to time.
Close the 37.5C at assignment, unless you want the upside bet.
Income outlook
Income history · since 2025-08-05
Banked since entry
$18,575
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$920/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$4,300/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$11,900
Oct 2026
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
$11,900
Oct
$250
open
life pace $920/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$4,300/mo
BELOW DESIGN
floor $4,627
design $9,254
$4,300/mo earned pays the hedge but is under half of the $9,254/mo it is designed to earn
Banked so far
$18,575
Whole-life P/L
-$165,862
Time with a call written
46%
Call roll chain
1 rolls down to 22, $0.02/sh
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
92%
CBOE 30-day 89%
Regime
PULLBACK
RSI 42
Next earnings
2027-02-09
103 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$6,472/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 72% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $29
spot $17
Spot needs +69% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$98,973
Roll Jan 19 '29
$199,512
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
29%
Roll Jan 19 '29
30%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$41,701
Roll Jan 19 '29
$108,548
Months bought
12
Worth at the record's pace
$51,487
Engine state
FIGHTING
Roll choices on Jan 19 '29
Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.
BEST: cash + margin
Most cash received net of margin added (the 2026-10-22 rule): the recommended roll.
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29also BEST WITH INCOMEalso MOST CASHalso LEAST MARGINalso LOWEST MAX LOSS
Cash at mid
-$165,750
Margin change
-$1,327
Strikes
25C / -25P / +17.5P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$212,750
Hedge extension (est.)
-$17,188
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$100,539 (+$8,397/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$66,846 (+$5,583/mo)
Restart odds
30% (keep 29%)
Value incl. income
-$81,072
Max loss from here
$107,812 (+$9,500)
CC-SS
$35.28 (now $35.29)
Net delta
+9860 sh (now +9759)
CSV ND after
15.47
Worst spread / min OI
27% / 18
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 125 Jan 21 '28 37.5C (close)
BUY 125 Jan 21 '28 37.5P (close)
BUY 125 Jan 19 '29 25C (open)
SELL 125 Jan 19 '29 25P (open)
INCOME ENGINE
Most expected income to the new expiry, FIGHT included (model).
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$199,500
Margin change
-$943
Strikes
22.5C / -22.5P / +17.5P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$255,250
Hedge extension (est.)
-$17,188
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$100,646 (+$8,406/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$67,124 (+$5,606/mo)
Restart odds
30% (keep 29%)
Value incl. income
-$115,098
Max loss from here
$110,313 (+$12,000)
CC-SS
$35.14 (now $35.29)
Net delta
+9776 sh (now +9759)
CSV ND after
18.17
Worst spread / min OI
33% / 25
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 125 Jan 21 '28 37.5C (close)
BUY 125 Jan 21 '28 37.5P (close)
BUY 125 Jan 19 '29 22.5C (open)
SELL 125 Jan 19 '29 22.5P (open)
SAME STRIKES
The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).
FULLJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$39,500
Margin change
+$6,113
Strikes
37.5C / -37.5P / +17.5P
Cash at natural
-$109,000
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$101,081 (+$8,442/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$68,321 (+$5,706/mo)
Restart odds
31% (keep 29%)
Value incl. income
+$55,468
Max loss from here
$137,812 (+$39,500)
CC-SS
$34.49 (now $35.29)
Net delta
+10965 sh (now +9759)
CSV ND after
5.37
Worst spread / min OI
72% / 0
Danger point
-24% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 125 Jan 21 '28 37.5C (close)
BUY 125 Jan 21 '28 37.5P (close)
SELL 125 Jan 21 '28 17.5P (close)
BUY 125 Jan 19 '29 37.5C (open)
SELL 125 Jan 19 '29 37.5P (open)
BUY 125 Jan 19 '29 17.5P (open)
Side by side
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
KEEP
held
Jan 21 '28
37.5
37.5
17.5
-
-
-
-
-
29%
-
$98,312
$35.29
+9759
BEST
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
25
17.5 (kept)
-$165,750
-$17,188
-$1,327
+$100,539 +$8,397/mo
+$66,846 +$5,583/mo
30%
-$81,072
$107,812
$35.28
+9860
BEST WITH INCOME
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
25
17.5 (kept)
-$165,750
-$17,188
-$1,327
+$100,539 +$8,397/mo
+$66,846 +$5,583/mo
30%
-$81,072
$107,812
$35.28
+9860
MOST CASH
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
25
17.5 (kept)
-$165,750
-$17,188
-$1,327
+$100,539 +$8,397/mo
+$66,846 +$5,583/mo
30%
-$81,072
$107,812
$35.28
+9860
LEAST MARGIN
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
25
17.5 (kept)
-$165,750
-$17,188
-$1,327
+$100,539 +$8,397/mo
+$66,846 +$5,583/mo
30%
-$81,072
$107,812
$35.28
+9860
LOWEST MAX LOSS
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
25
17.5 (kept)
-$165,750
-$17,188
-$1,327
+$100,539 +$8,397/mo
+$66,846 +$5,583/mo
30%
-$81,072
$107,812
$35.28
+9860
INCOME ENGINE
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
22.5
22.5
17.5 (kept)
-$199,500
-$17,188
-$943
+$100,646 +$8,406/mo
+$67,124 +$5,606/mo
30%
-$115,098
$110,313
$35.14
+9776
SAME STRIKES
FULL
Jan 19 '29
37.5
37.5
17.5
-$39,500
-
+$6,113
+$101,081 +$8,442/mo
+$68,321 +$5,706/mo
31%
+$55,468
$137,812
$34.49
+10965
Cost of waiting
The BEST roll done later instead of today (-$165,750 at mid). Black-Scholes at each leg's IV, aged and moved, anchored on today's market. Estimates.
Roll on
Days before expiry
Spot -30% ($12)
Spot +0% ($17)
Spot +30% ($22)
Today
448
-
-$165,750
-
2027-10-23
90
-$172,884
-$171,940
-$171,521
2027-12-07
45
-$173,851
-$172,785
-$172,211
How much time to buy
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
Jan 19 '29
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
25
17.5 (kept)
-$165,750
-$17,188
-$1,327
+$100,539 +$8,397/mo
+$66,846 +$5,583/mo
30%
-$81,072
$107,812
$35.28
+9860
Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
1
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
25
17.5 (kept)
-$165,750
-$17,188
-$1,327
+$100,539 +$8,397/mo
+$66,846 +$5,583/mo
30%
-$81,072
$107,812
$35.28
+9860
2
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
22.5
22.5
17.5 (kept)
-$199,500
-$17,188
-$943
+$100,646 +$8,406/mo
+$67,124 +$5,606/mo
30%
-$115,098
$110,313
$35.14
+9776
How this was built
107 rolls on the real strikes of Jan 19 '29; 2 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($39.71), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.21), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (92%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 03:50. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.