LEAPS Extend · 2026-10-30 · All fortresses

GOOG · Neville

+5 Jun 17 '27 340C-5 Jun 17 '27 405P+5 Jun 17 '27 360P230 days leftCSV ND 51.00entry $369 -24.2%CC-SS $397.58 (+42% vs spot)BE-SS $398.00 (+42% vs spot)

Spot

$279.84

CBOE 2026-10-30 13:51:06

When to roll✕ ROLL NOW

Roll now

The short put has almost no time value left ($1 a share): early assignment can come any day, and it would break the structure.
Holding as is costs about $35 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).

Is the time worth buying✓ EXTEND

It fights for its income: the extra time pays for the roll

Since 2026-06-04 it has banked $6,967, $1,313/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $999/mo against a $800/mo floor and a $1,600/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $398 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $378 (+35% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $1,658/mo at GOOG's realized keep of 78% (49 closed calls).
The record shows it fights: $1,313/mo earned against a modelled $1,658/mo, so FIGHT income counts toward the time.
Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 19 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $11,523 if you keep, $46,531 after the roll; safe calls alone: $554 vs $13,460. Odds safe calls restart: 8% vs 40%.
At the record's pace the extra 19 months are worth about $25,146.

Today, if you keep it

Value now (mid)

-$14,912

Unrealized vs CSV ND

-$40,412

Max loss from here

$7,588

Margin it holds (IBKR)

$7,695

a close frees it; model $7,226; $56,371 on all GOOG here

CC-SS

$397.58

safe call from $378

Net delta

+226 sh

notional $139,920

Theta

-$35/day

net of the three legs

Short put time value

$0.54

assignment HIGH

If you close it today

Whole-life P/L

-$33,840

legs + call income, all in

Legs vs entry

-$40,412

close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND

Call income banked

+$6,967

since entry, incl. the open chain

Cash to close today

-$15,307

legs at mid + call buyback -$395

If you hold to expiry instead

Whole-life P/L at expiry

-$26,312

expected; -$33,840 if closed today

Chance of break-even

whole-life P/L at or above zero

Max loss left

$7,588

84% of the $48,000 at entry already taken

Worst case if held

-$41,428

legs at their worst, no call income

No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jun 17 '27 (FIGHT included). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $7,226 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding beats closing by $301.

Hold

No roll pays for itself: hold and keep writing calls

No roll's actual income ($1,313 a month, life to date (148 days)) covers 80% of the max loss it adds and of the cash it costs.

If you're assigned

Odds of early assignment within 12 months: 97% The holder exercises once the stock is at or below $309 in 6 months..
Close everything now: -$14,912. Wait for assignment: -$14,642 (the put spread -$20,992, plus the 340C you keep, worth $6,350). About the same, and waiting keeps the call income.
On assignment: sell the shares and sell the hedge put (never exercise it): $20,992 more ($42 a share). Basis 92.98; the 340C alone has CC-SS $416.85 (now $397.58), break-even $433, margin about zero.
Calls afterwards (Dec 04 '26, 35d): a 340C (at or above the call) about $395 a cycle; a 295C (~0.30 delta) about $2,500 a cycle, but a rally can cost up to $22,500 a cycle. The 340C loses about $840 a month to time.
Close the 340C at assignment, unless you want the upside bet.

Income outlook

Income history · since 2026-06-04

Banked since entry

$6,967

closed calls + open chain premium

Life-to-date pace

$1,313/mo

open chain marked to today's buyback

Last 90 days

$999/mo

Coverage Insights' window

Best month

$2,843

Jul 2026

Jun

$2,843

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

$705

open

life pace $1,313/mo

Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.

Last 90 days vs design

$999/mo

EARNING ITS KEEP

floor $800

design $1,600

$999/mo earned, at least half of the $1,600/mo it is designed to earn

Scanner's best pick today

$100/mo

Banked so far

$6,967

Whole-life P/L

-$33,650

Time with a call written

75%

Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30

Market now

Call IV (~35d)

29%

CBOE 30-day 29%

Regime

OVERSOLD

RSI 33

Next earnings

2027-02-03

96 days

FIGHT rate (model)

$1,658/mo

~0.30-delta calls x 78% keep

Where safe calls start paying

safe from $378

spot $280

Spot needs +35% before a safe call pays a normal premium.

What the time buys

Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)

Keep Jun 17 '27

$11,523

Roll Jan 19 '29

$46,531

Odds safe calls start paying before expiry

Keep Jun 17 '27

Roll Jan 19 '29

40%

Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)

Keep Jun 17 '27

$554

Roll Jan 19 '29

$13,460

Months bought

Worth at the record's pace

$25,146

Engine state

FIGHTING

Roll choices on Jan 19 '29

Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.

SAME STRIKES

The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).

FULLJan 19 '29

Cash at mid

+$1,750

Margin change

+$15,032

Strikes

340C / -405P / +290P

Cash at natural

-$2,450

Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)

+$35,008 (+$1,829/mo)

Extra safe income (model)

+$12,906 (+$674/mo)

Restart odds

40% (keep 8%)

Value incl. income

+$21,726

Max loss from here

$40,838 (+$33,250)

CC-SS

$374.67 (now $397.58)

Net delta

+456 sh (now +226)

CSV ND after

47.50

Worst spread / min OI

7% / 2

Danger point

-22% (now none to -60%)

Order legs

SELL 5 Jun 17 '27 340C (close)

BUY 5 Jun 17 '27 405P (close)

SELL 5 Jun 17 '27 360P (close)

BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 340C (open)

SELL 5 Jan 19 '29 405P (open)

BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 290P (open)

Side by side

	Family	Expiry	LC	SP	HP	Cash mid	Hedge est	Margin chg	Extra income	Extra safe	Restart	Value incl. income	Max loss	CC-SS	Delta sh
KEEP	held	Jun 17 '27	340	405	360	-	-	-	-	-	8%	-	$7,588	$397.58	+226
SAME STRIKES	FULL	Jan 19 '29	340	405	290	+$1,750	-	+$15,032	+$35,008 +$1,829/mo	+$12,906 +$674/mo	40%	+$21,726	$40,838	$374.67	+456

Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29

	Family	Expiry	LC	SP	HP	Cash mid	Hedge est	Margin chg	Extra income	Extra safe	Restart	Value incl. income	Max loss	CC-SS	Delta sh

How this was built

610 rolls on the real strikes of Jan 21 '28, Dec 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 0 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($398.00), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.34), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (29%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 21:34. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.