LEAPS Extend · 2026-10-30 · All fortresses

IBIT · Joint

+50 Dec 17 '27 75C413 days leftCSV ND -4.42entry $68 -34.7%CC-SS $22.05 (-50% vs spot)BE-SS $70.58 (+60% vs spot)

Spot

$44.10

CBOE 2026-10-30 00:04:39

When to roll⏸ WAIT

Wait until 18 Sep 2027

413 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 18 Sep 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
Holding as is costs about $37 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).

Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).

Is the time worth buying✓ EXTEND

Safe calls are paying: buy them more time

Last 90 days earned $0/mo.
Spot is above $21, where a ~0.30-delta call already clears the CC-SS: safe calls pay now.
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $2,923/mo at whole book's realized keep of 71% (664 closed calls).
Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 13 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $52,422 if you keep, $109,352 after the roll; safe calls alone: $52,402 vs $108,844. Odds safe calls restart: 100% vs 100%.

Today, if you keep it

Value now (mid)

$11,650

Unrealized vs CSV ND

+$33,750

Max loss from here

$11,650

Margin it holds (model)

$8,700

a close frees it; $64,391 on all IBIT here

CC-SS

$22.05

safe call from $21

Net delta

+1184 sh

notional $220,523

Theta

-$37/day

net of the three legs

Short put time value

If you close it today

Whole-life P/L

+$33,750

legs + call income, all in

Legs vs entry

+$33,750

close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND

Call income banked

no history

Cash to close today

+$11,650

legs at mid + call buyback +$0

If you hold to expiry instead

Whole-life P/L at expiry

+$76,692

expected; +$33,750 if closed today

Chance of break-even

100%

whole-life P/L at or above zero

Max loss left

$11,650

from here

Worst case if held

+$22,100

legs at their worst, no call income

No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Dec 17 '27 (FIGHT included). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $8,700 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding beats closing by $34,242.

Hold

No roll pays for itself: hold and keep writing calls

No roll's actual income ($0 a month, last 90 days (no entry date on the sheet)) covers 80% of the max loss it adds and of the cash it costs.

Income outlook

Last 90 days vs design

$0/mo

Time with a call written

Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30

Market now

Call IV (~35d)

37%

CBOE 30-day 36%

Regime

NEUTRAL

RSI 57

FIGHT rate (model)

$2,923/mo

~0.30-delta calls x 71% keep

Where safe calls start paying

safe from $21

spot $44

Safe calls pay now.

What the time buys

Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)

Keep Dec 17 '27

$52,422

Roll Jan 19 '29

$109,352

Odds safe calls start paying before expiry

Keep Dec 17 '27

100%

Roll Jan 19 '29

100%

Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)

Keep Dec 17 '27

$52,402

Roll Jan 19 '29

$108,844

Months bought

Engine state

SAFE CALLS PAYING

Roll choices on Jan 19 '29

Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.

SAME STRIKES

The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).

FULLJan 19 '29

Cash at mid

-$21,975

Margin change

+$11,493

Strikes

75C / - / -

Cash at natural

-$25,200

Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)

+$56,930 (+$4,338/mo)

Extra safe income (model)

+$56,442 (+$4,300/mo)

Restart odds

100% (keep 100%)

Value incl. income

+$23,463

Max loss from here

$33,625 (+$21,975)

CC-SS

$22.05 (now $22.05)

Net delta

+2110 sh (now +1184)

CSV ND after

-0.03

Worst spread / min OI

14% / 442

Danger point

none to -60% (now none to -60%)

Order legs

SELL 50 Dec 17 '27 75C (close)

BUY 50 Jan 19 '29 75C (open)

Side by side

	Family	Expiry	LC	SP	HP	Cash mid	Hedge est	Margin chg	Extra income	Extra safe	Restart	Value incl. income	Max loss	CC-SS	Delta sh
KEEP	held	Dec 17 '27	75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	100%	-	$11,650	$22.05	+1184
SAME STRIKES	FULL	Jan 19 '29	75	-	-	-$21,975	-	+$11,493	+$56,930 +$4,338/mo	+$56,442 +$4,300/mo	100%	+$23,463	$33,625	$22.05	+2110

Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29

	Family	Expiry	LC	SP	HP	Cash mid	Hedge est	Margin chg	Extra income	Extra safe	Restart	Value incl. income	Max loss	CC-SS	Delta sh

How this was built

117 rolls on the real strikes of Jun 16 '28, Dec 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 0 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's, max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.15), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (37%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 03:50. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.