LEAPS Extend · 2026-10-30 · All fortresses

INTC · Neville

+5 Jan 21 '28 85C-5 Jan 21 '28 100P+5 Dec 18 '26 35P448 days leftCSV ND 29.00entry $116 -44.1%CC-SS $117.22 (+80% vs spot)BE-SS $114.00 (+75% vs spot)
Spot
$65.09
CBOE 2026-10-30 13:50:07
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 23 Oct 2027
  • 448 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
  • The new expiry is still wide (worst leg spread 12% of mid, open interest as low as 80): work the order at mid, never natural.
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying✓ EXTEND
It fights for its income: the extra time pays for the roll
  • Since 2026-05-14 it has banked $9,561, $1,697/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $494/mo against a $783/mo floor and a $1,567/mo design.
  • Safe calls (at or above the $117 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $104 (+59% from here).
  • FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $736/mo at INTC's realized keep of 74% (17 closed calls).
  • The record shows it fights: $1,697/mo earned against a modelled $736/mo, so FIGHT income counts toward the time.
  • Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 12 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $10,737 if you keep, $21,562 after the roll; safe calls alone: $3,144 vs $9,007. Odds safe calls restart: 27% vs 33%.
  • At the record's pace the extra 12 months are worth about $20,322.
  • Coverage Insights: write closer: today the 50% normal 102C offers $977/mo, 2.0x what it earns.

Today, if you keep it

Value now (mid)
-$13,785
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$28,285
Max loss from here
$18,715
Margin it holds (IBKR)
$10,764
a close frees it; model $11,155; $11,155 on all INTC here
CC-SS
$117.22
safe call from $104
Net delta
+574 sh
notional $32,548
Theta
-$3/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$4.52
assignment LOW
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$18,724
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$28,285
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$9,561
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
-$13,785
legs at mid + call buyback +$0
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$9,183
expected; -$18,724 if closed today
Chance of break-even
22%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$18,715
60% of the $47,000 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$37,439
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (FIGHT included). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $11,155 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding trails closing by $1,615.

Recommended roll

BEST: cash + margin
-$312
cash at mid today (natural -$2,000)
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29+12 months
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 85C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 100P (close)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 85C (open)
SELL 5 Jan 19 '29 105P (open)
Margin change (IBKR)
+$809
asked at 21:53; model +$555, this underlying only
Hedge extension (est.)
-$860
kept hedge carried to the new expiry
Income over the time bought
$20,322
actual: $1,697 a month x 12 months; covers 723% of the max loss it adds
Restart odds
27% → 33%
safe calls paying before expiry
Max loss from here
$21,528
+$2,812 vs keep
CC-SS
$117.15
now $117.22
CSV ND after
29.62
at a mid fill

If you're assigned

Income outlook

Income history · since 2026-05-14
Banked since entry
$9,561
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$1,697/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$494/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$3,920
Jun 2026
May
$3,920
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
life pace $1,697/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$494/mo
BELOW DESIGN
floor $783
design $1,567
$494/mo earned pays the hedge but is under half of the $1,567/mo it is designed to earn
Scanner's best pick today
$977/mo
Banked so far
$9,561
Whole-life P/L
-$3,272
Time with a call written
66%
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
64%
CBOE 30-day 63%
Regime
OVERSOLD
RSI 39
Next earnings
2027-01-28
90 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$736/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 74% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $104
spot $65
Spot needs +59% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$10,737
Roll Jan 19 '29
$21,562
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
27%
Roll Jan 19 '29
33%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$3,144
Roll Jan 19 '29
$9,007
Months bought
12
Worth at the record's pace
$20,322
Engine state
FIGHTING

Roll choices on Jan 19 '29

Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.

BEST: cash + margin

Most cash received net of margin added (the 2026-10-22 rule): the recommended roll.
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$312
Margin change
+$555
Strikes
85C / -105P / +35P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$2,000
Hedge extension (est.)
-$860
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$10,825 (+$904/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$5,863 (+$490/mo)
Restart odds
33% (keep 27%)
Value incl. income
+$9,097
Max loss from here
$21,528 (+$2,812)
CC-SS
$117.15 (now $117.22)
Net delta
+590 sh (now +574)
CSV ND after
29.62
Worst spread / min OI
12% / 80
Order legs
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 85C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 100P (close)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 85C (open)
SELL 5 Jan 19 '29 105P (open)

BEST WITH INCOME

Cash + margin + the extra income the time buys, FIGHT included (model).
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29also MOST CASH
Cash at mid
+$200
Margin change
+$357
Strikes
87.5C / -105P / +35P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$1,475
Hedge extension (est.)
-$860
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$10,801 (+$902/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$5,800 (+$484/mo)
Restart odds
32% (keep 27%)
Value incl. income
+$9,784
Max loss from here
$21,015 (+$2,300)
CC-SS
$117.81 (now $117.22)
Net delta
+583 sh (now +574)
CSV ND after
28.60
Worst spread / min OI
12% / 35
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 85C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 100P (close)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 87.5C (open)
SELL 5 Jan 19 '29 105P (open)

LEAST MARGIN

Largest drop (or smallest rise) in maintenance margin.
FULLJan 19 '29also LOWEST MAX LOSS
Cash at mid
-$12,785
Margin change
-$1,434
Strikes
60C / -105P / +65P
Cash at natural
-$14,495
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$10,703 (+$894/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$5,528 (+$462/mo)
Restart odds
31% (keep 27%)
Value incl. income
-$648
Max loss from here
$19,000 (+$285)
CC-SS
$120.46 (now $117.22)
Net delta
+512 sh (now +574)
CSV ND after
54.57
Worst spread / min OI
7% / 80
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 85C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 100P (close)
SELL 5 Dec 18 '26 35P (close)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 60C (open)
SELL 5 Jan 19 '29 105P (open)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 65P (open)

INCOME ENGINE

Most expected income to the new expiry, FIGHT included (model).
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$10,300
Margin change
+$3,935
Strikes
35C / -105P / +35P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$11,950
Hedge extension (est.)
-$860
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$11,090 (+$926/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$6,706 (+$560/mo)
Restart odds
38% (keep 27%)
Value incl. income
-$4,005
Max loss from here
$31,515 (+$12,800)
CC-SS
$107.49 (now $117.22)
Net delta
+742 sh (now +574)
CSV ND after
49.60
Worst spread / min OI
7% / 80
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 85C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 100P (close)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 35C (open)
SELL 5 Jan 19 '29 105P (open)

SAME STRIKES

The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$2,400
Margin change
+$325
Strikes
85C / -100P / +35P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$4,000
Hedge extension (est.)
-$860
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$10,788 (+$901/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$5,765 (+$481/mo)
Restart odds
32% (keep 27%)
Value incl. income
+$7,202
Max loss from here
$21,115 (+$2,400)
CC-SS
$118.16 (now $117.22)
Net delta
+574 sh (now +574)
CSV ND after
33.80
Worst spread / min OI
12% / 87
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Jan 21 '28 85C (close)
BUY 5 Jan 21 '28 100P (close)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 85C (open)
SELL 5 Jan 19 '29 100P (open)

Side by side

FamilyExpiryLCSPHPCash midHedge estMargin chgExtra incomeExtra safeRestartValue incl. incomeMax lossCC-SSDelta sh
KEEPheldJan 21 '288510035-----27%-$18,715$117.22+574
BESTLEAPS ONLYJan 19 '298510535 (kept)-$312-$860+$555+$10,825
+$904/mo
+$5,863
+$490/mo
33%+$9,097$21,528$117.15+590
BEST WITH INCOMELEAPS ONLYJan 19 '2987.510535 (kept)+$200-$860+$357+$10,801
+$902/mo
+$5,800
+$484/mo
32%+$9,784$21,015$117.81+583
MOST CASHLEAPS ONLYJan 19 '2987.510535 (kept)+$200-$860+$357+$10,801
+$902/mo
+$5,800
+$484/mo
32%+$9,784$21,015$117.81+583
LEAST MARGINFULLJan 19 '296010565-$12,785--$1,434+$10,703
+$894/mo
+$5,528
+$462/mo
31%-$648$19,000$120.46+512
LOWEST MAX LOSSFULLJan 19 '296010565-$12,785--$1,434+$10,703
+$894/mo
+$5,528
+$462/mo
31%-$648$19,000$120.46+512
INCOME ENGINELEAPS ONLYJan 19 '293510535 (kept)-$10,300-$860+$3,935+$11,090
+$926/mo
+$6,706
+$560/mo
38%-$4,005$31,515$107.49+742
SAME STRIKESLEAPS ONLYJan 19 '298510035 (kept)-$2,400-$860+$325+$10,788
+$901/mo
+$5,765
+$481/mo
32%+$7,202$21,115$118.16+574

Cost of waiting

The BEST roll done later instead of today (-$312 at mid). Black-Scholes at each leg's IV, aged and moved, anchored on today's market. Estimates.
Roll onDays before expirySpot -30% ($46)Spot +0% ($65)Spot +30% ($85)
Today448--$312-
2027-10-2390-$187-$841-$426
2027-12-0745-$140-$1,171-$633

How much time to buy

FamilyExpiryLCSPHPCash midHedge estMargin chgExtra incomeExtra safeRestartValue incl. incomeMax lossCC-SSDelta sh
Jun 16 '28LEAPS ONLYJun 16 '28759035 (kept)-$6,562-$485+$261+$4,876
+$1,008/mo
+$2,504
+$518/mo
30%-$2,433$20,278$117.41+572
Dec 15 '28LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2882.510035 (kept)-$2,675-$698+$455+$9,816
+$907/mo
+$5,251
+$485/mo
32%+$5,989$21,390$117.52+581
Jan 19 '29LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '2987.510535 (kept)+$200-$860+$357+$10,801
+$902/mo
+$5,800
+$484/mo
32%+$9,784$21,015$117.81+583
Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29
FamilyExpiryLCSPHPCash midHedge estMargin chgExtra incomeExtra safeRestartValue incl. incomeMax lossCC-SSDelta sh
1LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '2987.510535 (kept)+$200-$860+$357+$10,801
+$902/mo
+$5,800
+$484/mo
32%+$9,784$21,015$117.81+583
2LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '298510535 (kept)-$312-$860+$555+$10,825
+$904/mo
+$5,863
+$490/mo
33%+$9,097$21,528$117.15+590
3LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '298010535 (kept)-$750-$860+$782+$10,863
+$907/mo
+$5,966
+$498/mo
33%+$8,471$21,965$116.08+603
4FULLJan 19 '298010535-$2,722--$199+$10,768
+$899/mo
+$5,713
+$477/mo
32%+$8,244$23,938$118.68+558
5FULLJan 19 '298010540-$3,548--$567+$10,733
+$896/mo
+$5,613
+$469/mo
31%+$7,753$22,262$119.65+542
6LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '297510535 (kept)-$1,550-$860+$1,109+$10,904
+$911/mo
+$6,072
+$507/mo
34%+$7,385$22,765$114.95+617
7FULLJan 19 '297510535-$3,522-+$128+$10,813
+$903/mo
+$5,832
+$487/mo
32%+$7,163$24,738$117.47+572
8FULLJan 19 '297510540-$4,348--$241+$10,778
+$900/mo
+$5,740
+$479/mo
32%+$6,671$23,062$118.41+556
9LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '298010035 (kept)-$2,838-$860+$552+$10,828
+$904/mo
+$5,873
+$490/mo
33%+$6,579$21,552$117.06+588
10FULLJan 19 '297510545-$5,285--$944+$10,741
+$897/mo
+$5,635
+$471/mo
31%+$6,400$21,500$119.44+539
11LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '297010535 (kept)-$2,212-$860+$1,403+$10,941
+$914/mo
+$6,172
+$515/mo
34%+$6,466$23,428$113.86+632
12FULLJan 19 '297010535-$4,185-+$422+$10,854
+$907/mo
+$5,944
+$496/mo
33%+$6,248$25,400$116.32+587
13FULLJan 19 '297510550-$6,372--$1,365+$10,698
+$893/mo
+$5,515
+$461/mo
31%+$5,690$20,088$120.59+521
14LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '298097.535 (kept)-$3,825-$860+$375+$10,809
+$903/mo
+$5,820
+$486/mo
32%+$5,749$21,290$117.60+580
15FULLJan 19 '297010540-$5,010-+$53+$10,822
+$904/mo
+$5,856
+$489/mo
32%+$5,759$23,725$117.23+571
16FULLJan 19 '297010545-$5,948--$650+$10,785
+$901/mo
+$5,758
+$481/mo
32%+$5,488$22,162$118.23+554
17LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '297510035 (kept)-$3,638-$860+$879+$10,871
+$908/mo
+$5,985
+$500/mo
33%+$5,494$22,352$115.88+602
18FULLJan 19 '297510035-$5,610--$102+$10,776
+$900/mo
+$5,734
+$479/mo
32%+$5,268$24,325$118.48+557
19LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '296510535 (kept)-$3,262-$860+$1,776+$10,972
+$916/mo
+$6,264
+$523/mo
35%+$5,074$24,478$112.80+647
20FULLJan 19 '297510040-$6,435--$471+$10,741
+$897/mo
+$5,635
+$471/mo
31%+$4,777$22,650$119.44+541
21FULLJan 19 '297010550-$7,035--$1,071+$10,745
+$897/mo
+$5,646
+$471/mo
31%+$4,780$20,750$119.34+536
22FULLJan 19 '296510535-$5,235-+$795+$10,895
+$910/mo
+$6,049
+$505/mo
34%+$4,865$26,450$115.20+602
23LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '297597.535 (kept)-$4,625-$860+$701+$10,851
+$906/mo
+$5,935
+$496/mo
33%+$4,665$22,090$116.41+594
24FULLJan 19 '297597.535-$6,598--$279+$10,755
+$898/mo
+$5,676
+$474/mo
32%+$4,437$24,062$119.04+549
25LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '297010035 (kept)-$4,300-$860+$1,173+$10,911
+$911/mo
+$6,090
+$509/mo
34%+$4,578$23,015$114.76+617
How this was built