+20 Jan 21 '28 25C-20 Jan 21 '28 47P+20 Jan 15 '27 35P448 days leftCSV ND 16.00entry $45 -46.0%CC-SS $49.82 (+105% vs spot)BE-SS $44.00 (+81% vs spot)
Spot
$24.29
CBOE 2026-10-30 13:50:09
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 23 Oct 2027
448 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
Holding as is costs about $50 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying✓ EXTEND
It fights for its income: the extra time pays for the roll
Since 2026-01-28 it has banked $10,825, $986/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $1,330/mo against a $933/mo floor and a $1,867/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $50 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $39 (+62% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $1,218/mo at IREN's realized keep of 51% (71 closed calls).
The record shows it fights: $1,330/mo earned against a modelled $1,218/mo, so FIGHT income counts toward the time.
Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 12 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $23,033 if you keep, $47,992 after the roll; safe calls alone: $14,064 vs $33,714. Odds safe calls restart: 33% vs 29%.
At the record's pace the extra 12 months are worth about $15,925.
Earnings 2026-11-05 (6 days): sell no new income into it.
Today, if you keep it
Value now (mid)
-$7,500
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$39,500
Max loss from here
$16,500
Margin it holds (IBKR)
$10,109
a close frees it; model $8,681; $8,681 on all IREN here
CC-SS
$49.82
safe call from $39
Net delta
+1138 sh
notional $48,580
Theta
-$50/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$3.52
assignment LOW
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$30,125
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$39,500
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$10,825
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
-$8,950
legs at mid + call buyback -$1,450
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$1,237
expected; -$30,125 if closed today
Chance of break-even
18%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$16,500
71% of the $56,000 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$46,625
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (FIGHT included). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $8,681 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding beats closing by $20,207.
Recommended roll
BEST: cash + margin · also BEST WITH INCOME, MOST CASH, LEAST MARGIN, LOWEST MAX LOSS, SAME STRIKES
-$1,650
cash at mid today (natural -$4,800)
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29+12 months
SELL 20 Jan 21 '28 25C (close)
BUY 20 Jan 21 '28 47P (close)
BUY 20 Jan 19 '29 25C (open)
SELL 20 Jan 19 '29 47P (open)
Margin change (IBKR)
-$1,026
asked at 21:53; model -$1,035, this underlying only
Hedge extension (est.)
-$4,150
kept hedge carried to the new expiry
Income over the time bought
$11,802
actual: $986 a month x 12 months; covers 715% of the max loss it adds
Restart odds
33% → 29%
safe calls paying before expiry
Max loss from here
$18,150
+$1,650 vs keep
CC-SS
$51.48
now $49.82
CSV ND after
16.82
at a mid fill
If you're assigned
Odds of early assignment within 12 months: 71% The holder exercises once the stock is at or below $11 in 6 months..
Close everything now: -$7,500. Wait for assignment: -$470 (the put spread -$21,020, plus the 25C you keep, worth $20,550). About the same, and waiting keeps the call income.
On assignment: sell the shares and sell the hedge put (never exercise it): $21,020 more ($11 a share). Basis 26.51; the 25C alone has CC-SS $45.00 (now $49.82), break-even $52, margin about zero.
Calls afterwards (Dec 04 '26, 35d): a 25C (at or above the call) about $6,140 a cycle; a 31C (~0.30 delta) about $2,650 a cycle, but a rally can cost up to $0 a cycle. The 25C loses about $522 a month to time.
Ride the 25C: safe calls out-earn its decay.
Income outlook
Income history · since 2026-01-28
Banked since entry
$10,825
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$986/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$1,330/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$2,420
Aug 2026
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
$2,420
Aug
Sep
Oct
$4,580
open
life pace $986/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$1,330/mo
EARNING ITS KEEP
floor $933
design $1,867
$1,330/mo earned, at least half of the $1,867/mo it is designed to earn and above its hedge
Banked so far
$10,825
Whole-life P/L
-$28,415
Time with a call written
73%
Call roll chain
5 rolls down to 32.5, $2.29/sh
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
111%
CBOE 30-day 112%
Regime
OVERSOLD
RSI 36
Next earnings
2026-11-05
6 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$1,218/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 51% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $39
spot $24
Spot needs +62% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$23,033
Roll Jan 19 '29
$47,992
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
33%
Roll Jan 19 '29
29%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$14,064
Roll Jan 19 '29
$33,714
Months bought
12
Worth at the record's pace
$15,925
Engine state
FIGHTING
Roll choices on Jan 19 '29
Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.
BEST: cash + margin
Most cash received net of margin added (the 2026-10-22 rule): the recommended roll.
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29also BEST WITH INCOMEalso MOST CASHalso LEAST MARGINalso LOWEST MAX LOSSalso SAME STRIKES
Cash at mid
-$1,650
Margin change
-$1,035
Strikes
25C / -47P / +35P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$4,800
Hedge extension (est.)
-$4,150
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$24,959 (+$2,084/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$19,650 (+$1,641/mo)
Restart odds
29% (keep 33%)
Value incl. income
+$20,194
Max loss from here
$18,150 (+$1,650)
CC-SS
$51.48 (now $49.82)
Net delta
+1044 sh (now +1138)
CSV ND after
16.82
Worst spread / min OI
5% / 18
Order legs
SELL 20 Jan 21 '28 25C (close)
BUY 20 Jan 21 '28 47P (close)
BUY 20 Jan 19 '29 25C (open)
SELL 20 Jan 19 '29 47P (open)
INCOME ENGINE
Most expected income to the new expiry, FIGHT included (model).
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$8,350
Margin change
+$1,614
Strikes
15C / -47P / +35P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$12,100
Hedge extension (est.)
-$4,150
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$25,161 (+$2,101/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$20,117 (+$1,680/mo)
Restart odds
30% (keep 33%)
Value incl. income
+$11,047
Max loss from here
$24,850 (+$8,350)
CC-SS
$49.56 (now $49.82)
Net delta
+1235 sh (now +1138)
CSV ND after
20.18
Worst spread / min OI
6% / 18
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 20 Jan 21 '28 25C (close)
BUY 20 Jan 21 '28 47P (close)
BUY 20 Jan 19 '29 15C (open)
SELL 20 Jan 19 '29 47P (open)
Side by side
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
KEEP
held
Jan 21 '28
25
47
35
-
-
-
-
-
33%
-
$16,500
$49.82
+1138
BEST
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
47
35 (kept)
-$1,650
-$4,150
-$1,035
+$24,959 +$2,084/mo
+$19,650 +$1,641/mo
29%
+$20,194
$18,150
$51.48
+1044
BEST WITH INCOME
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
47
35 (kept)
-$1,650
-$4,150
-$1,035
+$24,959 +$2,084/mo
+$19,650 +$1,641/mo
29%
+$20,194
$18,150
$51.48
+1044
MOST CASH
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
47
35 (kept)
-$1,650
-$4,150
-$1,035
+$24,959 +$2,084/mo
+$19,650 +$1,641/mo
29%
+$20,194
$18,150
$51.48
+1044
LEAST MARGIN
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
47
35 (kept)
-$1,650
-$4,150
-$1,035
+$24,959 +$2,084/mo
+$19,650 +$1,641/mo
29%
+$20,194
$18,150
$51.48
+1044
LOWEST MAX LOSS
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
47
35 (kept)
-$1,650
-$4,150
-$1,035
+$24,959 +$2,084/mo
+$19,650 +$1,641/mo
29%
+$20,194
$18,150
$51.48
+1044
INCOME ENGINE
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
15
47
35 (kept)
-$8,350
-$4,150
+$1,614
+$25,161 +$2,101/mo
+$20,117 +$1,680/mo
30%
+$11,047
$24,850
$49.56
+1235
SAME STRIKES
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
47
35 (kept)
-$1,650
-$4,150
-$1,035
+$24,959 +$2,084/mo
+$19,650 +$1,641/mo
29%
+$20,194
$18,150
$51.48
+1044
Cost of waiting
The BEST roll done later instead of today (-$1,650 at mid). Black-Scholes at each leg's IV, aged and moved, anchored on today's market. Estimates.
Roll on
Days before expiry
Spot -30% ($17)
Spot +0% ($24)
Spot +30% ($32)
Today
448
-
-$1,650
-
2027-10-23
90
-$6,302
-$4,466
-$711
2027-12-07
45
-$7,598
-$6,470
-$1,299
How much time to buy
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
Jan 19 '29
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
47
35 (kept)
-$1,650
-$4,150
-$1,035
+$24,959 +$2,084/mo
+$19,650 +$1,641/mo
29%
+$20,194
$18,150
$51.48
+1044
Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
1
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
47
35 (kept)
-$1,650
-$4,150
-$1,035
+$24,959 +$2,084/mo
+$19,650 +$1,641/mo
29%
+$20,194
$18,150
$51.48
+1044
2
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
23
47
35 (kept)
-$2,950
-$4,150
-$494
+$25,010 +$2,089/mo
+$19,750 +$1,649/mo
29%
+$18,404
$19,450
$51.07
+1081
3
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
20
47
35 (kept)
-$4,800
-$4,150
+$270
+$25,071 +$2,094/mo
+$19,888 +$1,661/mo
30%
+$15,851
$21,300
$50.49
+1137
4
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
23
45
35 (kept)
-$6,200
-$4,150
-$996
+$24,971 +$2,085/mo
+$19,673 +$1,643/mo
29%
+$15,617
$18,700
$51.39
+1047
5
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
20
45
35 (kept)
-$8,050
-$4,150
-$232
+$25,040 +$2,091/mo
+$19,816 +$1,655/mo
29%
+$13,072
$20,550
$50.80
+1104
6
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
15
47
35 (kept)
-$8,350
-$4,150
+$1,614
+$25,161 +$2,101/mo
+$20,117 +$1,680/mo
30%
+$11,047
$24,850
$49.56
+1235
How this was built
118 rolls on the real strikes of Jun 16 '28, Sep 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 6 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($44.00), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.15), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (111%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 21:34. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.