+20 Jan 21 '28 25C-20 Jan 21 '28 47P+20 Jan 15 '27 35P448 days leftCSV ND 16.00entry $45 -45.1%CC-SS $48.72 (+97% vs spot)BE-SS $44.00 (+78% vs spot)
Spot
$24.72
CBOE 2026-10-30 00:04:33
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 23 Oct 2027
448 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
Holding as is costs about $47 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying✓ EXTEND
It fights for its income: the extra time pays for the roll
Since 2026-01-28 it has banked $9,552, $847/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $1,330/mo against a $933/mo floor and a $1,867/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $49 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $39 (+57% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $1,204/mo at IREN's realized keep of 51% (71 closed calls).
The record shows it fights: $1,330/mo earned against a modelled $1,204/mo, so FIGHT income counts toward the time.
Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 12 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $22,718 if you keep, $47,224 after the roll; safe calls alone: $13,844 vs $32,924. Odds safe calls restart: 34% vs 31%.
At the record's pace the extra 12 months are worth about $15,925.
Earnings 2026-11-05 (7 days): sell no new income into it.
Today, if you keep it
Value now (mid)
-$4,950
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$36,950
Max loss from here
$19,050
Margin it holds (model)
$9,409
a close frees it; $9,409 on all IREN here
CC-SS
$48.72
safe call from $39
Net delta
+1247 sh
notional $49,440
Theta
-$47/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$2.62
assignment LOW
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$29,698
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$36,950
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$9,552
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
-$7,250
legs at mid + call buyback -$2,300
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$3,582
expected; -$29,698 if closed today
Chance of break-even
19%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$19,050
66% of the $56,000 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$48,748
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (FIGHT included). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $9,409 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding beats closing by $16,707.
Recommended roll
BEST: cash + margin
-$3,950
cash at mid today (natural -$9,400)
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29+12 months
SELL 20 Jan 21 '28 25C (close)
BUY 20 Jan 21 '28 47P (close)
BUY 20 Jan 19 '29 23C (open)
SELL 20 Jan 19 '29 47P (open)
Margin change
-$379
freed is good; IBKR: IBKR's margin engine answers only in US market hours (21:30-04:00 SGT)
Hedge extension (est.)
-$4,900
kept hedge carried to the new expiry
Income over the time bought
$10,138
actual: $847 a month x 12 months; covers 257% of the max loss it adds
Restart odds
34% → 31%
safe calls paying before expiry
Max loss from here
$23,000
+$3,950 vs keep
CC-SS
$49.85
now $48.72
CSV ND after
17.98
at a mid fill
If you're assigned
Odds of early assignment within 12 months: 73% The holder exercises once the stock is at or below $14 in 6 months..
Close everything now: -$4,950. Wait for assignment: +$290 (the put spread -$23,060, plus the 25C you keep, worth $23,350). About the same, and waiting keeps the call income.
On assignment: sell the shares and sell the hedge put (never exercise it): $23,060 more ($12 a share). Basis 27.53; the 25C alone has CC-SS $44.92 (now $48.72), break-even $53, margin about zero.
Calls afterwards (Dec 04 '26, 35d): a 25C (at or above the call) about $8,300 a cycle; a 33C (~0.30 delta) about $2,950 a cycle, but a rally can cost up to $0 a cycle. The 25C loses about $516 a month to time.
Ride the 25C: safe calls out-earn its decay.
Income outlook
Income history · since 2026-01-28
Banked since entry
$9,552
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$847/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$1,330/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$2,420
Aug 2026
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
$2,420
Aug
Sep
Oct
$4,580
open
life pace $847/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$1,330/mo
EARNING ITS KEEP
floor $933
design $1,867
$1,330/mo earned, at least half of the $1,867/mo it is designed to earn and above its hedge
Banked so far
$9,552
Whole-life P/L
-$29,688
Time with a call written
73%
Call roll chain
5 rolls down to 32.5, $2.29/sh
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
107%
CBOE 30-day 109%
Regime
PULLBACK
RSI 38
Next earnings
2026-11-05
7 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$1,204/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 51% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $39
spot $25
Spot needs +57% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$22,718
Roll Jan 19 '29
$47,224
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
34%
Roll Jan 19 '29
31%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$13,844
Roll Jan 19 '29
$32,924
Months bought
12
Worth at the record's pace
$15,925
Engine state
FIGHTING
Roll choices on Jan 19 '29
Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.
BEST: cash + margin
Most cash received net of margin added (the 2026-10-22 rule): the recommended roll.
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$3,950
Margin change
-$379
Strikes
23C / -47P / +35P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$9,400
Hedge extension (est.)
-$4,900
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$24,507 (+$2,047/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$19,080 (+$1,593/mo)
Restart odds
31% (keep 34%)
Value incl. income
+$16,036
Max loss from here
$23,000 (+$3,950)
CC-SS
$49.85 (now $48.72)
Net delta
+1166 sh (now +1247)
CSV ND after
17.98
Worst spread / min OI
8% / 18
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 20 Jan 21 '28 25C (close)
BUY 20 Jan 21 '28 47P (close)
BUY 20 Jan 19 '29 23C (open)
SELL 20 Jan 19 '29 47P (open)
BEST WITH INCOME
Cash + margin + the extra income the time buys, FIGHT included (model).
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29also MOST CASHalso LEAST MARGINalso LOWEST MAX LOSSalso SAME STRIKES
Cash at mid
-$3,100
Margin change
-$481
Strikes
25C / -47P / +35P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$9,100
Hedge extension (est.)
-$4,900
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$24,486 (+$2,045/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$19,025 (+$1,589/mo)
Restart odds
31% (keep 34%)
Value incl. income
+$16,967
Max loss from here
$22,150 (+$3,100)
CC-SS
$50.09 (now $48.72)
Net delta
+1131 sh (now +1247)
CSV ND after
17.55
Worst spread / min OI
12% / 18
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 20 Jan 21 '28 25C (close)
BUY 20 Jan 21 '28 47P (close)
BUY 20 Jan 19 '29 25C (open)
SELL 20 Jan 19 '29 47P (open)
INCOME ENGINE
Most expected income to the new expiry, FIGHT included (model).
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$9,100
Margin change
+$1,951
Strikes
15C / -47P / +35P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$15,300
Hedge extension (est.)
-$4,900
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$24,641 (+$2,058/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$19,463 (+$1,625/mo)
Restart odds
32% (keep 34%)
Value incl. income
+$8,690
Max loss from here
$28,150 (+$9,100)
CC-SS
$48.41 (now $48.72)
Net delta
+1311 sh (now +1247)
CSV ND after
20.55
Worst spread / min OI
11% / 18
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 20 Jan 21 '28 25C (close)
BUY 20 Jan 21 '28 47P (close)
BUY 20 Jan 19 '29 15C (open)
SELL 20 Jan 19 '29 47P (open)
Side by side
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
KEEP
held
Jan 21 '28
25
47
35
-
-
-
-
-
34%
-
$19,050
$48.72
+1247
BEST
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
23
47
35 (kept)
-$3,950
-$4,900
-$379
+$24,507 +$2,047/mo
+$19,080 +$1,593/mo
31%
+$16,036
$23,000
$49.85
+1166
BEST WITH INCOME
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
47
35 (kept)
-$3,100
-$4,900
-$481
+$24,486 +$2,045/mo
+$19,025 +$1,589/mo
31%
+$16,967
$22,150
$50.09
+1131
MOST CASH
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
47
35 (kept)
-$3,100
-$4,900
-$481
+$24,486 +$2,045/mo
+$19,025 +$1,589/mo
31%
+$16,967
$22,150
$50.09
+1131
LEAST MARGIN
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
47
35 (kept)
-$3,100
-$4,900
-$481
+$24,486 +$2,045/mo
+$19,025 +$1,589/mo
31%
+$16,967
$22,150
$50.09
+1131
LOWEST MAX LOSS
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
47
35 (kept)
-$3,100
-$4,900
-$481
+$24,486 +$2,045/mo
+$19,025 +$1,589/mo
31%
+$16,967
$22,150
$50.09
+1131
INCOME ENGINE
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
15
47
35 (kept)
-$9,100
-$4,900
+$1,951
+$24,641 +$2,058/mo
+$19,463 +$1,625/mo
32%
+$8,690
$28,150
$48.41
+1311
SAME STRIKES
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
47
35 (kept)
-$3,100
-$4,900
-$481
+$24,486 +$2,045/mo
+$19,025 +$1,589/mo
31%
+$16,967
$22,150
$50.09
+1131
Cost of waiting
The BEST roll done later instead of today (-$3,950 at mid). Black-Scholes at each leg's IV, aged and moved, anchored on today's market. Estimates.
Roll on
Days before expiry
Spot -30% ($17)
Spot +0% ($25)
Spot +30% ($32)
Today
448
-
-$3,950
-
2027-10-23
90
-$8,238
-$6,854
-$3,425
2027-12-07
45
-$9,554
-$8,834
-$3,916
How much time to buy
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
Sep 15 '28
LEAPS ONLY
Sep 15 '28
20
45
35 (kept)
-$7,800
-$3,200
+$147
+$15,383 +$1,965/mo
+$11,733 +$1,499/mo
32%
+$4,236
$22,850
$49.27
+1230
Jan 19 '29
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
47
35 (kept)
-$3,100
-$4,900
-$481
+$24,486 +$2,045/mo
+$19,025 +$1,589/mo
31%
+$16,967
$22,150
$50.09
+1131
Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
1
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
47
35 (kept)
-$3,100
-$4,900
-$481
+$24,486 +$2,045/mo
+$19,025 +$1,589/mo
31%
+$16,967
$22,150
$50.09
+1131
2
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
23
47
35 (kept)
-$3,950
-$4,900
-$379
+$24,507 +$2,047/mo
+$19,080 +$1,593/mo
31%
+$16,036
$23,000
$49.85
+1166
3
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
20
47
35 (kept)
-$5,500
-$4,900
+$588
+$24,569 +$2,052/mo
+$19,237 +$1,607/mo
31%
+$13,581
$24,550
$49.27
+1220
4
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
20
45
35 (kept)
-$8,500
-$4,900
-$58
+$24,533 +$2,049/mo
+$19,145 +$1,599/mo
31%
+$11,190
$23,550
$49.61
+1187
5
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
15
47
35 (kept)
-$9,100
-$4,900
+$1,951
+$24,641 +$2,058/mo
+$19,463 +$1,625/mo
32%
+$8,690
$28,150
$48.41
+1311
6
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
15
45
35 (kept)
-$12,100
-$4,900
+$1,306
+$24,620 +$2,056/mo
+$19,379 +$1,618/mo
32%
+$6,314
$27,150
$48.73
+1278
7
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
15
42
35 (kept)
-$16,250
-$4,900
+$193
+$24,567 +$2,052/mo
+$19,232 +$1,606/mo
31%
+$3,224
$25,300
$49.28
+1227
8
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
15
40
35 (kept)
-$19,100
-$4,900
-$332
+$24,530 +$2,049/mo
+$19,137 +$1,598/mo
31%
+$862
$24,150
$49.63
+1192
9
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
10
42
35 (kept)
-$22,000
-$4,900
+$1,819
+$24,638 +$2,058/mo
+$19,452 +$1,625/mo
32%
-$4,081
$31,050
$48.45
+1317
10
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
10
40
35 (kept)
-$24,850
-$4,900
+$1,294
+$24,616 +$2,056/mo
+$19,365 +$1,617/mo
32%
-$6,428
$29,900
$48.78
+1282
11
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
10
38
35 (kept)
-$28,450
-$4,900
+$1,132
+$24,598 +$2,054/mo
+$19,314 +$1,613/mo
31%
-$9,884
$29,500
$48.98
+1246
How this was built
97 rolls on the real strikes of Jun 16 '28, Sep 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 14 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($44.00), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.21), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (107%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 03:50. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.