+20 Jan 21 '28 50C-20 Jan 21 '28 70P+20 Jan 21 '28 25P448 days leftCSV ND 6.85entry $65 -62.6%CC-SS $64.47 (+165% vs spot)BE-SS $63.43 (+161% vs spot)
Spot
$24.29
CBOE 2026-10-30 13:50:09
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 23 Oct 2027
448 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
Short put deep in the money with $1 of time value (42% of a year's carry on the strike): assignment risk is real; check it weekly.
Holding as is costs about $24 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying✓ EXTEND
It fights for its income: the extra time pays for the roll
Since 2026-05-31 it has banked $6,947, $1,142/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $635/mo against a $1,728/mo floor and a $3,457/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $64 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $51 (+109% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $1,218/mo at IREN's realized keep of 51% (71 closed calls).
The record shows it fights: $1,142/mo earned against a modelled $1,218/mo, so FIGHT income counts toward the time.
Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 12 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $19,875 if you keep, $42,027 after the roll; safe calls alone: $9,273 vs $26,169. Odds safe calls restart: 22% vs 22%.
At the record's pace the extra 12 months are worth about $13,675.
Coverage Insights: hold to expiry instead of buying back at a loss (your record: holding did better 39 of 54 times).
Earnings 2026-11-05 (6 days): sell no new income into it.
Today, if you keep it
Value now (mid)
-$64,300
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$78,000
Max loss from here
$25,700
Margin it holds (IBKR)
$21,760
a close frees it; model $19,603; $19,603 on all IREN here
CC-SS
$64.47
safe call from $51
Net delta
+1826 sh
notional $48,580
Theta
-$24/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$1.16
assignment WATCH
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$72,003
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$78,000
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$6,947
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
-$65,250
legs at mid + call buyback -$950
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$55,824
expected; -$72,003 if closed today
Chance of break-even
9%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$25,700
75% of the $103,700 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$97,703
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (FIGHT included). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $19,603 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding trails closing by $3,424.
Hold
No roll pays for itself: hold and keep writing calls
No roll's actual income ($1,142 a month, life to date (152 days)) covers 80% of the max loss it adds and of the cash it costs.
If you're assigned
Odds of early assignment within 12 months: 87% The holder exercises once the stock is at or below $17 in 6 months..
Close everything now: -$64,300. Wait for assignment: -$61,970 (the put spread -$72,420, plus the 50C you keep, worth $10,450). About the same, and waiting keeps the call income.
On assignment: sell the shares and sell the hedge put (never exercise it): $72,420 more ($36 a share). Basis 43.06; the 50C alone has CC-SS none ≤ 3x spot (now $64.47), break-even $93, margin about zero.
Calls afterwards (Dec 04 '26, 35d): a 50C (at or above the call) about $250 a cycle; a 31C (~0.30 delta) about $2,650 a cycle, but a rally can cost up to $38,000 a cycle. The 50C loses about $636 a month to time.
Close the 50C at assignment, unless you want the upside bet.
Income outlook
Income history · since 2026-05-31
Banked since entry
$6,947
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$1,142/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$635/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$3,007
Jul 2026
May
Jun
$3,007
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
$900
open
life pace $1,142/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$635/mo
BELOW DESIGN
floor $1,728
design $3,457
$635/mo earned pays the hedge but is under half of the $3,457/mo it is designed to earn
Banked so far
$6,947
Whole-life P/L
-$68,923
Time with a call written
47%
Call roll chain
1 rolls down to 33, $0.45/sh
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
111%
CBOE 30-day 112%
Regime
OVERSOLD
RSI 36
Next earnings
2026-11-05
6 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$1,218/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 51% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $51
spot $24
Spot needs +109% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$19,875
Roll Jan 19 '29
$42,027
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
22%
Roll Jan 19 '29
22%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$9,273
Roll Jan 19 '29
$26,169
Months bought
12
Worth at the record's pace
$13,675
Engine state
FIGHTING
Roll choices on Jan 19 '29
Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.
SAME STRIKES
The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).
FULLJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$8,150
Margin change
+$2,135
Strikes
50C / -70P / +25P
Cash at natural
-$13,300
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$22,152 (+$1,850/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$16,896 (+$1,411/mo)
Restart odds
22% (keep 22%)
Value incl. income
+$11,866
Max loss from here
$33,850 (+$8,150)
CC-SS
$65.23 (now $64.47)
Net delta
+1957 sh (now +1826)
CSV ND after
10.93
Worst spread / min OI
6% / 67
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 20 Jan 21 '28 50C (close)
BUY 20 Jan 21 '28 70P (close)
SELL 20 Jan 21 '28 25P (close)
BUY 20 Jan 19 '29 50C (open)
SELL 20 Jan 19 '29 70P (open)
BUY 20 Jan 19 '29 25P (open)
Side by side
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
KEEP
held
Jan 21 '28
50
70
25
-
-
-
-
-
22%
-
$25,700
$64.47
+1826
SAME STRIKES
FULL
Jan 19 '29
50
70
25
-$8,150
-
+$2,135
+$22,152 +$1,850/mo
+$16,896 +$1,411/mo
22%
+$11,866
$33,850
$65.23
+1957
Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
How this was built
45 rolls on the real strikes of Jun 16 '28, Sep 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 0 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($63.42), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.28), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (111%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 21:34. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.