+20 Jan 21 '28 50C-20 Jan 21 '28 70P+20 Jan 21 '28 25P448 days leftCSV ND 6.85entry $65 -62.0%CC-SS $63.15 (+155% vs spot)BE-SS $63.43 (+157% vs spot)
Spot
$24.72
CBOE 2026-10-30 00:04:33
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 23 Oct 2027
448 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
Short put deep in the money with $0 of time value (6% of a year's carry on the strike): assignment risk is real; check it weekly.
Holding as is costs about $25 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
The new expiry is still wide (worst leg spread 15% of mid, open interest as low as 215): work the order at mid, never natural.
The best roll lowers the CC-SS from $63 to $61: covered calls can be written $2 closer to spot.
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying▲ RECONSIDER
The roll costs more than the income its time brings
Since 2026-05-31 it has banked $6,947, $1,142/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $635/mo against a $1,728/mo floor and a $3,457/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $63 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $50 (+103% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $1,204/mo at IREN's realized keep of 51% (71 closed calls).
The record shows it fights: $1,142/mo earned against a modelled $1,204/mo, so FIGHT income counts toward the time.
Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 12 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $19,744 if you keep, $44,762 after the roll; safe calls alone: $9,201 vs $29,186. Odds safe calls restart: 22% vs 24%.
At the record's pace the extra 12 months are worth about $13,675.
The roll costs more (cash and margin) than the income its extra time is expected to bring.
Coverage Insights: hold to expiry instead of buying back at a loss (your record: holding did better 39 of 54 times).
Earnings 2026-11-05 (7 days): sell no new income into it.
Holding to expiry instead (15 months, calls written all the way, FIGHT included): expected whole-life -$56,543 vs -$68,863 if closed today; 9% chance to finish at break-even or better; worst case -$98,313 (another $29,450 if the legs end at their worst and no call pays); 72% of the entry max loss ($103,700) is already taken.
Closing wins once the $19,707 of margin it frees is counted (holding's edge is +$12,320 on average): consider closing.
Today, if you keep it
Value now (mid)
-$60,550
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$74,250
Max loss from here
$29,450
Margin it holds (model)
$19,707
a close frees it; $19,707 on all IREN here
CC-SS
$63.15
safe call from $50
Net delta
+1883 sh
notional $49,440
Theta
-$25/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$0.17
assignment WATCH
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$68,863
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$74,250
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$6,947
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
-$62,110
legs at mid + call buyback -$1,560
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$56,543
expected; -$68,863 if closed today
Chance of break-even
9%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$29,450
72% of the $103,700 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$98,313
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (FIGHT included). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $19,707 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding trails closing by $7,387.
Recommended roll
BEST: cash + margin · also BEST WITH INCOME, MOST CASH
-$45,900
cash at mid today (natural -$54,300)
FULLJan 19 '29+12 months
SELL 20 Jan 21 '28 50C (close)
BUY 20 Jan 21 '28 70P (close)
SELL 20 Jan 21 '28 25P (close)
BUY 20 Jan 19 '29 28C (open)
SELL 20 Jan 19 '29 50P (open)
BUY 20 Jan 19 '29 20P (open)
Margin change
+$5,122
freed is good; IBKR: IBKR's margin engine answers only in US market hours (21:30-04:00 SGT)
Hedge extension (est.)
none
hedge rolled too
Income over the time bought
$13,675
actual: $1,142 a month x 12 months; covers 86% of the max loss it adds
Restart odds
22% → 24%
safe calls paying before expiry
Max loss from here
$45,350
+$15,900 vs keep
CC-SS
$60.93
now $63.15
CSV ND after
29.80
at a mid fill
If you're assigned
Odds of early assignment within 12 months: 95% The holder exercises once the stock is at or below $23 in 6 months..
Close everything now: -$60,550. Wait for assignment: -$60,210 (the put spread -$72,710, plus the 50C you keep, worth $12,500). About the same, and waiting keeps the call income.
On assignment: sell the shares and sell the hedge put (never exercise it): $72,710 more ($36 a share). Basis 43.21; the 50C alone has CC-SS none ≤ 3x spot (now $63.15), break-even $93, margin about zero.
Calls afterwards (Dec 04 '26, 35d): a 50C (at or above the call) about $360 a cycle; a 33C (~0.30 delta) about $2,950 a cycle, but a rally can cost up to $34,000 a cycle. The 50C loses about $672 a month to time.
Close the 50C at assignment, unless you want the upside bet.
Income outlook
Income history · since 2026-05-31
Banked since entry
$6,947
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$1,142/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$635/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$3,007
Jul 2026
May
Jun
$3,007
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
$900
open
life pace $1,142/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$635/mo
BELOW DESIGN
floor $1,728
design $3,457
$635/mo earned pays the hedge but is under half of the $3,457/mo it is designed to earn
Banked so far
$6,947
Whole-life P/L
-$68,923
Time with a call written
47%
Call roll chain
1 rolls down to 33, $0.45/sh
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
107%
CBOE 30-day 109%
Regime
PULLBACK
RSI 38
Next earnings
2026-11-05
7 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$1,204/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 51% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $50
spot $25
Spot needs +103% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$19,744
Roll Jan 19 '29
$44,762
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
22%
Roll Jan 19 '29
24%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$9,201
Roll Jan 19 '29
$29,186
Months bought
12
Worth at the record's pace
$13,675
Engine state
FIGHTING
Roll choices on Jan 19 '29
Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.
BEST: cash + margin
Most cash received net of margin added (the 2026-10-22 rule): the recommended roll.
FULLJan 19 '29also BEST WITH INCOMEalso MOST CASH
Cash at mid
-$45,900
Margin change
+$5,122
Strikes
28C / -50P / +20P
Cash at natural
-$54,300
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$25,018 (+$2,089/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$19,985 (+$1,669/mo)
Restart odds
24% (keep 22%)
Value incl. income
-$26,004
Max loss from here
$45,350 (+$15,900)
CC-SS
$60.93 (now $63.15)
Net delta
+2101 sh (now +1883)
CSV ND after
29.80
Worst spread / min OI
15% / 215
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 20 Jan 21 '28 50C (close)
BUY 20 Jan 21 '28 70P (close)
SELL 20 Jan 21 '28 25P (close)
BUY 20 Jan 19 '29 28C (open)
SELL 20 Jan 19 '29 50P (open)
BUY 20 Jan 19 '29 20P (open)
LEAST MARGIN
Largest drop (or smallest rise) in maintenance margin.
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29also LOWEST MAX LOSS
Cash at mid
-$47,700
Margin change
+$1,495
Strikes
28C / -50P / +25P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$55,000
Hedge extension (est.)
-$5,200
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$23,364 (+$1,951/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$18,086 (+$1,510/mo)
Restart odds
23% (keep 22%)
Value incl. income
-$31,030
Max loss from here
$37,150 (+$7,700)
CC-SS
$62.85 (now $63.15)
Net delta
+1902 sh (now +1883)
CSV ND after
30.70
Worst spread / min OI
15% / 215
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 20 Jan 21 '28 50C (close)
BUY 20 Jan 21 '28 70P (close)
BUY 20 Jan 19 '29 28C (open)
SELL 20 Jan 19 '29 50P (open)
INCOME ENGINE
Most expected income to the new expiry, FIGHT included (model).
FULLJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$52,500
Margin change
+$5,110
Strikes
23C / -50P / +23P
Cash at natural
-$60,300
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$25,230 (+$2,107/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$20,240 (+$1,690/mo)
Restart odds
24% (keep 22%)
Value incl. income
-$32,379
Max loss from here
$45,950 (+$16,500)
CC-SS
$60.56 (now $63.15)
Net delta
+2127 sh (now +1883)
CSV ND after
33.10
Worst spread / min OI
11% / 98
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 20 Jan 21 '28 50C (close)
BUY 20 Jan 21 '28 70P (close)
SELL 20 Jan 21 '28 25P (close)
BUY 20 Jan 19 '29 23C (open)
SELL 20 Jan 19 '29 50P (open)
BUY 20 Jan 19 '29 23P (open)
SAME STRIKES
The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).
FULLJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$9,850
Margin change
+$3,155
Strikes
50C / -70P / +25P
Cash at natural
-$17,900
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$23,005 (+$1,921/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$17,671 (+$1,476/mo)
Restart odds
23% (keep 22%)
Value incl. income
+$10,000
Max loss from here
$39,300 (+$9,850)
CC-SS
$63.26 (now $63.15)
Net delta
+1973 sh (now +1883)
CSV ND after
11.77
Worst spread / min OI
11% / 64
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 20 Jan 21 '28 50C (close)
BUY 20 Jan 21 '28 70P (close)
SELL 20 Jan 21 '28 25P (close)
BUY 20 Jan 19 '29 50C (open)
SELL 20 Jan 19 '29 70P (open)
BUY 20 Jan 19 '29 25P (open)
Side by side
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
KEEP
held
Jan 21 '28
50
70
25
-
-
-
-
-
22%
-
$29,450
$63.15
+1883
BEST
FULL
Jan 19 '29
28
50
20
-$45,900
-
+$5,122
+$25,018 +$2,089/mo
+$19,985 +$1,669/mo
24%
-$26,004
$45,350
$60.93
+2101
BEST WITH INCOME
FULL
Jan 19 '29
28
50
20
-$45,900
-
+$5,122
+$25,018 +$2,089/mo
+$19,985 +$1,669/mo
24%
-$26,004
$45,350
$60.93
+2101
MOST CASH
FULL
Jan 19 '29
28
50
20
-$45,900
-
+$5,122
+$25,018 +$2,089/mo
+$19,985 +$1,669/mo
24%
-$26,004
$45,350
$60.93
+2101
LEAST MARGIN
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
28
50
25 (kept)
-$47,700
-$5,200
+$1,495
+$23,364 +$1,951/mo
+$18,086 +$1,510/mo
23%
-$31,030
$37,150
$62.85
+1902
LOWEST MAX LOSS
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
28
50
25 (kept)
-$47,700
-$5,200
+$1,495
+$23,364 +$1,951/mo
+$18,086 +$1,510/mo
23%
-$31,030
$37,150
$62.85
+1902
INCOME ENGINE
FULL
Jan 19 '29
23
50
23
-$52,500
-
+$5,110
+$25,230 +$2,107/mo
+$20,240 +$1,690/mo
24%
-$32,379
$45,950
$60.56
+2127
SAME STRIKES
FULL
Jan 19 '29
50
70
25
-$9,850
-
+$3,155
+$23,005 +$1,921/mo
+$17,671 +$1,476/mo
23%
+$10,000
$39,300
$63.26
+1973
Cost of waiting
The BEST roll done later instead of today (-$45,900 at mid). Black-Scholes at each leg's IV, aged and moved, anchored on today's market. Estimates.
Roll on
Days before expiry
Spot -30% ($17)
Spot +0% ($25)
Spot +30% ($32)
Today
448
-
-$45,900
-
2027-10-23
90
-$49,266
-$56,413
-$59,826
2027-12-07
45
-$50,155
-$59,135
-$63,511
How much time to buy
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
Sep 15 '28
LEAPS ONLY
Sep 15 '28
20
45
25 (kept)
-$59,750
-$2,700
+$2,556
+$15,503 +$1,980/mo
+$12,082 +$1,543/mo
24%
-$49,504
$39,200
$61.54
+2003
Jan 19 '29
FULL
Jan 19 '29
28
50
20
-$45,900
-
+$5,122
+$25,018 +$2,089/mo
+$19,985 +$1,669/mo
24%
-$26,004
$45,350
$60.93
+2101
Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
1
FULL
Jan 19 '29
28
50
20
-$45,900
-
+$5,122
+$25,018 +$2,089/mo
+$19,985 +$1,669/mo
24%
-$26,004
$45,350
$60.93
+2101
2
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
28
50
25 (kept)
-$47,700
-$5,200
+$1,495
+$23,364 +$1,951/mo
+$18,086 +$1,510/mo
23%
-$31,030
$37,150
$62.85
+1902
3
FULL
Jan 19 '29
25
50
23
-$51,650
-
+$5,002
+$25,056 +$2,093/mo
+$20,028 +$1,673/mo
24%
-$31,596
$45,100
$60.88
+2092
4
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
25
50
25 (kept)
-$49,950
-$5,200
+$2,448
+$24,007 +$2,005/mo
+$18,830 +$1,573/mo
24%
-$33,590
$39,400
$62.08
+1954
5
FULL
Jan 19 '29
23
50
23
-$52,500
-
+$5,110
+$25,230 +$2,107/mo
+$20,240 +$1,690/mo
24%
-$32,379
$45,950
$60.56
+2127
6
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
23
50
25 (kept)
-$50,800
-$5,200
+$2,555
+$24,300 +$2,029/mo
+$19,165 +$1,601/mo
24%
-$34,255
$40,250
$61.75
+1989
7
FULL
Jan 19 '29
23
50
25
-$56,000
-
+$4,707
+$25,026 +$2,090/mo
+$19,993 +$1,670/mo
24%
-$35,681
$45,450
$60.92
+2087
8
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
20
50
25 (kept)
-$52,350
-$5,200
+$3,571
+$24,934 +$2,082/mo
+$19,889 +$1,661/mo
24%
-$36,186
$41,800
$61.02
+2042
9
FULL
Jan 19 '29
23
47
23
-$57,600
-
+$4,559
+$24,901 +$2,080/mo
+$19,851 +$1,658/mo
24%
-$37,257
$45,050
$61.06
+2078
10
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
23
47
25 (kept)
-$55,900
-$5,200
+$2,004
+$23,853 +$1,992/mo
+$18,651 +$1,558/mo
23%
-$39,251
$39,350
$62.27
+1940
11
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
20
47
25 (kept)
-$57,450
-$5,200
+$3,020
+$24,496 +$2,046/mo
+$19,388 +$1,619/mo
24%
-$41,173
$40,900
$61.53
+1994
12
FULL
Jan 19 '29
20
45
23
-$62,150
-
+$4,896
+$25,134 +$2,099/mo
+$20,118 +$1,680/mo
24%
-$41,912
$45,600
$60.79
+2099
13
FULL
Jan 19 '29
20
42
20
-$62,800
-
+$4,800
+$25,096 +$2,096/mo
+$20,074 +$1,677/mo
24%
-$42,504
$46,250
$60.84
+2108
14
FULL
Jan 19 '29
20
47
25
-$62,650
-
+$5,171
+$25,173 +$2,102/mo
+$20,167 +$1,684/mo
24%
-$42,648
$46,100
$60.70
+2092
15
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
20
45
25 (kept)
-$60,450
-$5,200
+$2,342
+$24,091 +$2,012/mo
+$18,927 +$1,581/mo
24%
-$43,900
$39,900
$61.99
+1961
How this was built
39 rolls on the real strikes of Jun 16 '28, Sep 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 16 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($63.42), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.27), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (107%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 03:50. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.