+400 Jan 21 '28 13C449 days leftCSV ND 3.75entry $10 -30.1%CC-SS $11.16 (+52% vs spot)BE-SS $16.75 (+128% vs spot)
Spot
$7.33
CBOE 2026-10-29 16:33:18
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 23 Oct 2027
449 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
Holding as is costs about $120 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
The new expiry is still wide (worst leg spread 14% of mid, open interest as low as 1408): work the order at mid, never natural.
The best roll lowers the CC-SS from $11 to $10: covered calls can be written $1 closer to spot.
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying! EXTEND FOR RECOVERY
Engine stalled: extending is a bet on recovery
Since 2026-08-20 it has banked $1,400, $600/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $600/mo against a $2,500/mo floor and a $5,000/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $11 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $9 (+24% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $9,032/mo at whole book's realized keep of 70% (658 closed calls).
The record does not show the FIGHT engine running ($600/mo earned vs $9,032/mo modelled): only safe-call income is credited.
Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 12 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $145,572 if you keep, $289,508 after the roll; safe calls alone: $92,557 vs $210,053. Odds safe calls restart: 49% vs 47%.
At the record's pace the extra 12 months are worth about $7,184.
Even after the roll the odds are only 47%: the extension is a bet on recovery, with little income in the meantime.
Earnings 2026-11-04 (6 days): sell no new income into it.
Today, if you keep it
Value now (mid)
$68,600
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$81,400
Max loss from here
$68,600
Margin it holds (model)
$49,945
a close frees it; $79,910 on all MARA here
CC-SS
$11.16
safe call from $9
Net delta
+19812 sh
notional $293,400
Theta
-$120/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
-
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$80,000
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$81,400
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$1,400
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
+$68,600
legs at mid + call buyback +$0
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$2,202
expected; -$80,000 if closed today
Chance of break-even
12%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$68,600
54% of the $150,000 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$148,600
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (safe calls only). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $49,945 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding beats closing by $27,854.
Recommended roll
BEST: cash + margin · also BEST WITH INCOME, MOST CASH, LEAST MARGIN, LOWEST MAX LOSS, INCOME ENGINE, SAME STRIKES
-$43,800
cash at mid today (natural -$55,600)
FULLJan 19 '29+12 months
SELL 400 Jan 21 '28 13C (close)
BUY 400 Jan 19 '29 12C (open)
Net after hedge and margin
-$62,649
-$43,800 cash -$18,849 margin
Margin change (IBKR)
+$12,538
asked at 00:33; model +$18,849, this underlying only
Hedge extension (est.)
none
hedge rolled too
Extra income (model)
+$143,937+$12,021/mo
FIGHT included, over the 12 months bought; safe calls alone +$117,496 (+$9,813/mo)
Restart odds
49% → 47%
safe calls paying before expiry
Max loss from here
$112,400
+$43,800 vs keep
CC-SS
$10.47
now $11.16
CSV ND after
4.84
at a mid fill
Income outlook
Income history · since 2026-08-20
Banked since entry
$1,400
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$600/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$600/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$1,400
Aug 2026
$1,400
Aug
Sep
Oct
life pace $600/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$600/mo
floor $2,500
design $5,000
Scanner's best pick today
$1,210/mo
Banked so far
$1,400
Whole-life P/L
-$82,400
Time with a call written
1%
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-29
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
97%
CBOE 30-day 97%
Regime
OVERSOLD
RSI 37
Next earnings
2026-11-04
6 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$9,032/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 70% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $9
spot $7
Spot needs +24% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$145,572
Roll Jan 19 '29
$289,508
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
49%
Roll Jan 19 '29
47%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$92,557
Roll Jan 19 '29
$210,053
Months bought
12
Worth at the record's pace
$7,184
Engine state
STALLED
Roll choices on Jan 19 '29
Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.
BEST: cash + margin
Most cash received net of margin added (the 2026-10-22 rule): the recommended roll.
FULLJan 19 '29also BEST WITH INCOMEalso MOST CASHalso LEAST MARGINalso LOWEST MAX LOSSalso INCOME ENGINEalso SAME STRIKES
Cash at mid
-$43,800
Margin change
+$18,849
Strikes
12C / - / -
Cash at natural
-$55,600
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$143,937 (+$12,021/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$117,496 (+$9,813/mo)
Restart odds
47% (keep 49%)
Value incl. income
+$81,288
Max loss from here
$112,400 (+$43,800)
CC-SS
$10.47 (now $11.16)
Net delta
+25880 sh (now +19812)
CSV ND after
4.84
Worst spread / min OI
14% / 1408
Danger point
-23% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 400 Jan 21 '28 13C (close)
BUY 400 Jan 19 '29 12C (open)
Side by side
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
KEEP
held
Jan 21 '28
13
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
49%
-
$68,600
$11.16
+19812
BEST
FULL
Jan 19 '29
12
-
-
-$43,800
-
+$18,849
+$143,937 +$12,021/mo
+$117,496 +$9,813/mo
47%
+$81,288
$112,400
$10.47
+25880
BEST WITH INCOME
FULL
Jan 19 '29
12
-
-
-$43,800
-
+$18,849
+$143,937 +$12,021/mo
+$117,496 +$9,813/mo
47%
+$81,288
$112,400
$10.47
+25880
MOST CASH
FULL
Jan 19 '29
12
-
-
-$43,800
-
+$18,849
+$143,937 +$12,021/mo
+$117,496 +$9,813/mo
47%
+$81,288
$112,400
$10.47
+25880
LEAST MARGIN
FULL
Jan 19 '29
12
-
-
-$43,800
-
+$18,849
+$143,937 +$12,021/mo
+$117,496 +$9,813/mo
47%
+$81,288
$112,400
$10.47
+25880
LOWEST MAX LOSS
FULL
Jan 19 '29
12
-
-
-$43,800
-
+$18,849
+$143,937 +$12,021/mo
+$117,496 +$9,813/mo
47%
+$81,288
$112,400
$10.47
+25880
INCOME ENGINE
FULL
Jan 19 '29
12
-
-
-$43,800
-
+$18,849
+$143,937 +$12,021/mo
+$117,496 +$9,813/mo
47%
+$81,288
$112,400
$10.47
+25880
SAME STRIKES
FULL
Jan 19 '29
12
-
-
-$43,800
-
+$18,849
+$143,937 +$12,021/mo
+$117,496 +$9,813/mo
47%
+$81,288
$112,400
$10.47
+25880
Cost of waiting
The BEST roll done later instead of today (-$43,800 at mid). Black-Scholes at each leg's IV, aged and moved, anchored on today's market. Estimates.
Roll on
Days before expiry
Spot -30% ($5)
Spot +0% ($7)
Spot +30% ($10)
Today
449
-
-$43,800
-
2027-10-23
90
-$31,629
-$62,902
-$91,828
2027-12-07
45
-$28,685
-$63,515
-$100,962
How much time to buy
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
Dec 15 '28
FULL
Dec 15 '28
12
-
-
-$43,400
-
+$18,867
+$130,594 +$12,067/mo
+$107,188 +$9,904/mo
47%
+$68,327
$112,000
$10.48
+25400
Jan 19 '29
FULL
Jan 19 '29
12
-
-
-$43,800
-
+$18,849
+$143,937 +$12,021/mo
+$117,496 +$9,813/mo
47%
+$81,288
$112,400
$10.47
+25880
Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
1
FULL
Jan 19 '29
12
-
-
-$43,800
-
+$18,849
+$143,937 +$12,021/mo
+$117,496 +$9,813/mo
47%
+$81,288
$112,400
$10.47
+25880
How this was built
6 candidates on the real strikes of Dec 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 2 keep the fortress shape, at least 95% of the upside at $10 and $16, and add no more than 10% max loss over the larger of keep and the same-strike roll.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.24), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (97%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-29 23:56. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.