LEAPS Extend · 2026-10-30 · All fortresses

MARA · Main

+400 Jan 21 '28 13C448 days leftCSV ND 3.75entry $10 -37.0%CC-SS $11.18 (+69% vs spot)BE-SS $16.75 (+153% vs spot)
Spot
$6.62
CBOE 2026-10-30 13:52:11
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 23 Oct 2027
  • 448 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
  • Holding as is costs about $112 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying! EXTEND FOR RECOVERY
Engine stalled: extending is a bet on recovery
  • Since 2026-08-20 it has banked $1,400, $592/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $592/mo against a $2,500/mo floor and a $5,000/mo design.
  • Safe calls (at or above the $11 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $9 (+36% from here).
  • FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $8,628/mo at whole book's realized keep of 71% (664 closed calls).
  • The record does not show the FIGHT engine running ($592/mo earned vs $8,628/mo modelled): only safe-call income is credited.
  • Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 12 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $139,182 if you keep, $277,813 after the roll; safe calls alone: $81,182 vs $192,083. Odds safe calls restart: 43% vs 41%.
  • At the record's pace the extra 12 months are worth about $7,083.
  • Even after the roll the odds are only 41%: the extension is a bet on recovery, with little income in the meantime.
  • Earnings 2026-11-04 (5 days): sell no new income into it.

Today, if you keep it

Value now (mid)
$55,400
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$94,600
Max loss from here
$55,400
Margin it holds (IBKR)
$46,053
a close frees it; model $39,875; $67,044 on all MARA here
CC-SS
$11.18
safe call from $9
Net delta
+18760 sh
notional $264,600
Theta
-$112/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
-
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$93,200
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$94,600
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$1,400
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
+$55,400
legs at mid + call buyback +$0
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$19,468
expected; -$93,200 if closed today
Chance of break-even
10%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$55,400
63% of the $150,000 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$148,600
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (safe calls only). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $39,875 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding beats closing by $33,857.

Hold

No roll pays for itself: hold and keep writing calls
No roll's actual income ($2,737 a month, the book's 22% of max loss a year (under 90 days old)) covers 80% of the max loss it adds and of the cash it costs.

Income outlook

Income history · since 2026-08-20
Banked since entry
$1,400
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$592/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$592/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$1,400
Aug 2026
$1,400
Aug
Sep
Oct
life pace $592/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$592/mo
floor $2,500
design $5,000
Scanner's best pick today
$705/mo
Banked so far
$1,400
Whole-life P/L
-$81,800
Time with a call written
1%
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
104%
CBOE 30-day 103%
Regime
OVERSOLD
RSI 36
Next earnings
2026-11-04
5 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$8,628/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 71% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $9
spot $7
Spot needs +36% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$139,182
Roll Jan 19 '29
$277,813
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
43%
Roll Jan 19 '29
41%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$81,182
Roll Jan 19 '29
$192,083
Months bought
12
Worth at the record's pace
$7,083
Engine state
STALLED

Roll choices on Jan 19 '29

Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.

SAME STRIKES

The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).
FULLJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$42,000
Margin change
+$19,337
Strikes
12C / - / -
Cash at natural
-$52,000
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$138,630 (+$11,578/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$110,901 (+$9,262/mo)
Restart odds
41% (keep 43%)
Value incl. income
+$77,293
Max loss from here
$97,400 (+$42,000)
CC-SS
$10.30 (now $11.18)
Net delta
+24984 sh (now +18760)
CSV ND after
4.80
Worst spread / min OI
17% / 1467
Danger point
-23% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 400 Jan 21 '28 13C (close)
BUY 400 Jan 19 '29 12C (open)

Side by side

FamilyExpiryLCSPHPCash midHedge estMargin chgExtra incomeExtra safeRestartValue incl. incomeMax lossCC-SSDelta sh
KEEPheldJan 21 '2813-------43%-$55,400$11.18+18760
SAME STRIKESFULLJan 19 '2912---$42,000-+$19,337+$138,630
+$11,578/mo		+$110,901
+$9,262/mo		41%+$77,293$97,400$10.30+24984
Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29
FamilyExpiryLCSPHPCash midHedge estMargin chgExtra incomeExtra safeRestartValue incl. incomeMax lossCC-SSDelta sh
How this was built