+400 Jan 21 '28 13C448 days leftCSV ND 3.75entry $10 -33.7%CC-SS $10.93 (+57% vs spot)BE-SS $16.75 (+141% vs spot)
Spot
$6.96
CBOE 2026-10-30 00:04:34
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 23 Oct 2027
448 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
Holding as is costs about $116 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
The new expiry is still wide (worst leg spread 12% of mid, open interest as low as 733): work the order at mid, never natural.
The best roll lowers the CC-SS from $11 to $10: covered calls can be written $1 closer to spot.
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying! EXTEND FOR RECOVERY
Engine stalled: extending is a bet on recovery
Since 2026-08-20 it has banked $1,400, $592/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $592/mo against a $2,500/mo floor and a $5,000/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $11 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $9 (+28% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $8,630/mo at whole book's realized keep of 71% (664 closed calls).
The record does not show the FIGHT engine running ($592/mo earned vs $8,630/mo modelled): only safe-call income is credited.
Extending to Dec 15 '28 buys 11 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $138,853 if you keep, $263,310 after the roll; safe calls alone: $84,262 vs $183,447. Odds safe calls restart: 47% vs 45%.
At the record's pace the extra 11 months are worth about $6,402.
Even after the roll the odds are only 45%: the extension is a bet on recovery, with little income in the meantime.
Earnings 2026-11-04 (6 days): sell no new income into it.
Today, if you keep it
Value now (mid)
$66,800
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$83,200
Max loss from here
$66,800
Margin it holds (model)
$44,463
a close frees it; $72,285 on all MARA here
CC-SS
$10.93
safe call from $9
Net delta
+19460 sh
notional $278,460
Theta
-$116/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
-
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$81,800
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$83,200
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$1,400
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
+$66,800
legs at mid + call buyback +$0
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$16,576
expected; -$81,800 if closed today
Chance of break-even
10%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$66,800
55% of the $150,000 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$148,600
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (safe calls only). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $44,463 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding beats closing by $20,762.
Recommended roll
BEST: cash + margin · also BEST WITH INCOME, MOST CASH, LEAST MARGIN, LOWEST MAX LOSS, INCOME ENGINE, SAME STRIKES
-$35,800
cash at mid today (natural -$48,000)
FULLDec 15 '28+11 months
SELL 400 Jan 21 '28 13C (close)
BUY 400 Dec 15 '28 12C (open)
Margin change
+$15,546
freed is good; IBKR: IBKR's margin engine answers only in US market hours (21:30-04:00 SGT)
Hedge extension (est.)
none
hedge rolled too
Income over the time bought
$29,619
actual: $2,737 a month x 11 months; covers 83% of the max loss it adds
Restart odds
47% → 45%
safe calls paying before expiry
Max loss from here
$102,600
+$35,800 vs keep
CC-SS
$10.27
now $10.93
CSV ND after
4.65
at a mid fill
Income outlook
Income history · since 2026-08-20
Banked since entry
$1,400
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$592/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$592/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$1,400
Aug 2026
$1,400
Aug
Sep
Oct
life pace $592/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$592/mo
floor $2,500
design $5,000
Scanner's best pick today
$705/mo
Banked so far
$1,400
Whole-life P/L
-$81,800
Time with a call written
1%
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
98%
CBOE 30-day 98%
Regime
OVERSOLD
RSI 37
Next earnings
2026-11-04
6 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$8,630/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 71% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $9
spot $7
Spot needs +28% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$138,853
Roll Dec 15 '28
$263,310
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
47%
Roll Dec 15 '28
45%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$84,262
Roll Dec 15 '28
$183,447
Months bought
11
Worth at the record's pace
$6,402
Engine state
STALLED
Roll choices on Dec 15 '28
Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.
BEST: cash + margin
Most cash received net of margin added (the 2026-10-22 rule): the recommended roll.
FULLDec 15 '28also BEST WITH INCOMEalso MOST CASHalso LEAST MARGINalso LOWEST MAX LOSSalso INCOME ENGINEalso SAME STRIKES
Cash at mid
-$35,800
Margin change
+$15,546
Strikes
12C / - / -
Cash at natural
-$48,000
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$124,457 (+$11,500/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$99,184 (+$9,165/mo)
Restart odds
45% (keep 47%)
Value incl. income
+$73,111
Max loss from here
$102,600 (+$35,800)
CC-SS
$10.27 (now $10.93)
Net delta
+25100 sh (now +19460)
CSV ND after
4.65
Worst spread / min OI
12% / 733
Danger point
-22% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 400 Jan 21 '28 13C (close)
BUY 400 Dec 15 '28 12C (open)
Side by side
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
KEEP
held
Jan 21 '28
13
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
47%
-
$66,800
$10.93
+19460
BEST
FULL
Dec 15 '28
12
-
-
-$35,800
-
+$15,546
+$124,457 +$11,500/mo
+$99,184 +$9,165/mo
45%
+$73,111
$102,600
$10.27
+25100
BEST WITH INCOME
FULL
Dec 15 '28
12
-
-
-$35,800
-
+$15,546
+$124,457 +$11,500/mo
+$99,184 +$9,165/mo
45%
+$73,111
$102,600
$10.27
+25100
MOST CASH
FULL
Dec 15 '28
12
-
-
-$35,800
-
+$15,546
+$124,457 +$11,500/mo
+$99,184 +$9,165/mo
45%
+$73,111
$102,600
$10.27
+25100
LEAST MARGIN
FULL
Dec 15 '28
12
-
-
-$35,800
-
+$15,546
+$124,457 +$11,500/mo
+$99,184 +$9,165/mo
45%
+$73,111
$102,600
$10.27
+25100
LOWEST MAX LOSS
FULL
Dec 15 '28
12
-
-
-$35,800
-
+$15,546
+$124,457 +$11,500/mo
+$99,184 +$9,165/mo
45%
+$73,111
$102,600
$10.27
+25100
INCOME ENGINE
FULL
Dec 15 '28
12
-
-
-$35,800
-
+$15,546
+$124,457 +$11,500/mo
+$99,184 +$9,165/mo
45%
+$73,111
$102,600
$10.27
+25100
SAME STRIKES
FULL
Dec 15 '28
12
-
-
-$35,800
-
+$15,546
+$124,457 +$11,500/mo
+$99,184 +$9,165/mo
45%
+$73,111
$102,600
$10.27
+25100
Cost of waiting
The BEST roll done later instead of today (-$35,800 at mid). Black-Scholes at each leg's IV, aged and moved, anchored on today's market. Estimates.
Roll on
Days before expiry
Spot -30% ($5)
Spot +0% ($7)
Spot +30% ($9)
Today
448
-
-$35,800
-
2027-10-23
90
-$24,718
-$51,513
-$77,973
2027-12-07
45
-$21,902
-$51,130
-$85,028
How much time to buy
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
Dec 15 '28
FULL
Dec 15 '28
12
-
-
-$35,800
-
+$15,546
+$124,457 +$11,500/mo
+$99,184 +$9,165/mo
45%
+$73,111
$102,600
$10.27
+25100
Top 25 candidates on Dec 15 '28
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
1
FULL
Dec 15 '28
12
-
-
-$35,800
-
+$15,546
+$124,457 +$11,500/mo
+$99,184 +$9,165/mo
45%
+$73,111
$102,600
$10.27
+25100
How this was built
6 rolls on the real strikes of Dec 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 1 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($16.75), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.21), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (98%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 03:50. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.