LEAPS Extend · 2026-10-30 · All fortresses

MARA · RetireInc

+500 Jan 21 '28 40C448 days leftCSV ND 1.04entry $10 -35.8%CC-SS $10.65 (+61% vs spot)BE-SS $41.04 (+520% vs spot)

Spot

$6.62

CBOE 2026-10-30 13:52:11

When to roll⏸ WAIT

Wait until 23 Oct 2027

448 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
Holding as is costs about $85 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).

Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).

Is the time worth buying• NO ROLL

Nothing to roll to: no admissible later expiry

Since 2026-06-05 it has banked -$1,273, -$260/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $0/mo against a $867/mo floor and a $1,733/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $11 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $9 (+29% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $10,785/mo at whole book's realized keep of 71% (664 closed calls).
The record does not show the FIGHT engine running ($0/mo earned vs $10,785/mo modelled): only safe-call income is credited.
No roll to judge the time on: no later LEAPS expiry, or no roll keeps the fortress's shape and upside.
Earnings 2026-11-04 (5 days): sell no new income into it.

Today, if you keep it

Value now (mid)

$18,500

Unrealized vs CSV ND

-$33,500

Max loss from here

$18,500

Margin it holds (IBKR)

$13,597

a close frees it; model $15,085; $15,085 on all MARA here

CC-SS

$10.65

safe call from $9

Net delta

+7305 sh

notional $330,750

Theta

-$85/day

net of the three legs

Short put time value

If you close it today

Whole-life P/L

-$34,773

legs + call income, all in

Legs vs entry

-$33,500

close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND

Call income banked

-$1,273

since entry, incl. the open chain

Cash to close today

+$18,500

legs at mid + call buyback +$0

If you hold to expiry instead

Whole-life P/L at expiry

+$62,429

expected; -$34,773 if closed today

Chance of break-even

100%

whole-life P/L at or above zero

Max loss left

$18,500

64% of the $52,000 at entry already taken

Worst case if held

-$53,273

legs at their worst, no call income

No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (safe calls only). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $15,085 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding beats closing by $82,117.

Hold

No roll pays for itself: hold and keep writing calls

No roll's actual income ($0 a month, life to date (147 days)) covers 80% of the max loss it adds and of the cash it costs.

Income outlook

Income history · since 2026-06-05

Banked since entry

-$1,273

closed calls + open chain premium

Life-to-date pace

-$260/mo

open chain marked to today's buyback

Last 90 days

$0/mo

Coverage Insights' window

Best month

Jun 2026

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.

Last 90 days vs design

$0/mo

floor $867

design $1,733

Banked so far

-$1,273

Time with a call written

Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30

Market now

Call IV (~35d)

104%

CBOE 30-day 103%

Regime

OVERSOLD

RSI 36

Next earnings

2026-11-04

5 days

FIGHT rate (model)

$10,785/mo

~0.30-delta calls x 71% keep

Where safe calls start paying

safe from $9

spot $7

Spot needs +29% before a safe call pays a normal premium.

What the time buys

No admissible roll.

Roll choices on Jan 19 '29

Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.

Side by side

	Family	Expiry	LC	SP	HP	Cash mid	Hedge est	Margin chg	Extra income	Extra safe	Restart	Value incl. income	Max loss	CC-SS	Delta sh
KEEP	held	Jan 21 '28	40	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	46%	-	$18,500	$10.65	+7305

Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29

	Family	Expiry	LC	SP	HP	Cash mid	Hedge est	Margin chg	Extra income	Extra safe	Restart	Value incl. income	Max loss	CC-SS	Delta sh

How this was built

2 rolls on the real strikes of Dec 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 0 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($41.04), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.28), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (104%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 21:34. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.