LEAPS Extend · 2026-10-30 · All fortresses

MSTR · Joint

+10 Dec 17 '27 180C413 days leftCSV ND 53.00entry $395 -68.3%CC-SS $175.94 (+40% vs spot)BE-SS $233.00 (+86% vs spot)

Spot

$125.40

CBOE 2026-10-30 13:50:14

When to roll⏸ WAIT

Wait until 18 Sep 2027

413 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 18 Sep 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
Holding as is costs about $44 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).

Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).

Is the time worth buying! EXTEND FOR RECOVERY

Engine stalled: extending is a bet on recovery

Since 2025-05-15 it has banked $18,553, $694/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days -$780/mo against a $883/mo floor and a $1,767/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $176 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $151 (+21% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $3,603/mo at MSTR's realized keep of 81% (22 closed calls).
The record does not show the FIGHT engine running ($694/mo earned vs $3,603/mo modelled): only safe-call income is credited.
Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 13 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $49,140 if you keep, $104,750 after the roll; safe calls alone: $26,576 vs $66,628. Odds safe calls restart: 54% vs 53%.
At the record's pace the extra 13 months are worth about $9,111.
Even after the roll the odds are only 53%: the extension is a bet on recovery, with little income in the meantime.

Today, if you keep it

Value now (mid)

$25,950

Unrealized vs CSV ND

-$27,050

Max loss from here

$25,950

Margin it holds (IBKR)

$20,704

a close frees it; model $18,518; $26,132 on all MSTR here

CC-SS

$175.94

safe call from $151

Net delta

+501 sh

notional $125,400

Theta

-$44/day

net of the three legs

Short put time value

If you close it today

Whole-life P/L

-$14,717

legs + call income, all in

Legs vs entry

-$27,050

close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND

Call income banked

+$18,553

since entry, incl. the open chain

Cash to close today

+$19,730

legs at mid + call buyback -$6,220

If you hold to expiry instead

Whole-life P/L at expiry

+$4,527

expected; -$14,717 if closed today

Chance of break-even

16%

whole-life P/L at or above zero

Max loss left

$25,950

51% of the $53,000 at entry already taken

Worst case if held

-$40,667

legs at their worst, no call income

No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Dec 17 '27 (safe calls only). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $18,518 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding beats closing by $726.

Hold

No roll pays for itself: hold and keep writing calls

No roll's actual income ($694 a month, life to date (533 days)) covers 80% of the max loss it adds and of the cash it costs.

Income outlook

Income history · since 2025-05-15

Banked since entry

$18,553

closed calls + open chain premium

Life-to-date pace

$694/mo

open chain marked to today's buyback

Last 90 days

-$780/mo

Coverage Insights' window

Best month

$4,170

Feb 2026

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

$4,170

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

$2,850

open

life pace $694/mo

Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.

Last 90 days vs design

-$780/mo

floor $883

design $1,767

Scanner's best pick today

$1,096/mo

Banked so far

$18,553

Whole-life P/L

-$8,497

Time with a call written

99%

Call roll chain

6 rolls down to 180, $2.85/sh

Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30

Market now

Call IV (~35d)

75%

CBOE 30-day 73%

Regime

NEUTRAL

RSI 47

Next earnings

2027-02-04

97 days

FIGHT rate (model)

$3,603/mo

~0.30-delta calls x 81% keep

Where safe calls start paying

safe from $151

spot $125

Spot needs +21% before a safe call pays a normal premium.

What the time buys

Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)

Keep Dec 17 '27

$49,140

Roll Jan 19 '29

$104,750

Odds safe calls start paying before expiry

Keep Dec 17 '27

54%

Roll Jan 19 '29

53%

Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)

Keep Dec 17 '27

$26,576

Roll Jan 19 '29

$66,628

Months bought

Worth at the record's pace

$9,111

Engine state

STALLED

Roll choices on Jan 19 '29

Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.

SAME STRIKES

The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).

FULLJan 19 '29

Cash at mid

-$17,425

Margin change

+$9,457

Strikes

180C / - / -

Cash at natural

-$22,500

Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)

+$55,610 (+$4,237/mo)

Extra safe income (model)

+$40,052 (+$3,052/mo)

Restart odds

53% (keep 54%)

Value incl. income

+$28,727

Max loss from here

$43,375 (+$17,425)

CC-SS

$168.35 (now $175.94)

Net delta

+633 sh (now +501)

CSV ND after

70.42

Worst spread / min OI

12% / 187

Danger point

none to -60% (now none to -60%)

Order legs

SELL 10 Dec 17 '27 180C (close)

BUY 10 Jan 19 '29 180C (open)

Side by side

	Family	Expiry	LC	SP	HP	Cash mid	Hedge est	Margin chg	Extra income	Extra safe	Restart	Value incl. income	Max loss	CC-SS	Delta sh
KEEP	held	Dec 17 '27	180	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	54%	-	$25,950	$175.94	+501
SAME STRIKES	FULL	Jan 19 '29	180	-	-	-$17,425	-	+$9,457	+$55,610 +$4,237/mo	+$40,052 +$3,052/mo	53%	+$28,727	$43,375	$168.35	+633

Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29

	Family	Expiry	LC	SP	HP	Cash mid	Hedge est	Margin chg	Extra income	Extra safe	Restart	Value incl. income	Max loss	CC-SS	Delta sh

How this was built

34 rolls on the real strikes of Jun 16 '28, Dec 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 0 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($233.00), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.15), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (75%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 21:34. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.