LEAPS Extend · 2026-10-30 · All fortresses

MSTR · Joint

+10 Dec 17 '27 180C413 days leftCSV ND 53.00entry $395 -66.2%CC-SS $172.12 (+29% vs spot)BE-SS $233.00 (+74% vs spot)
Spot
$133.54
CBOE 2026-10-30 00:14:49
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 18 Sep 2027
  • 413 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 18 Sep 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
  • Holding as is costs about $46 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying! EXTEND FOR RECOVERY
Engine stalled: extending is a bet on recovery
  • Since 2025-05-15 it has banked $18,553, $694/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days -$780/mo against a $883/mo floor and a $1,767/mo design.
  • Safe calls (at or above the $172 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $151 (+13% from here).
  • FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $3,513/mo at MSTR's realized keep of 81% (22 closed calls).
  • The record does not show the FIGHT engine running ($694/mo earned vs $3,513/mo modelled): only safe-call income is credited.
  • Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 13 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $47,753 if you keep, $102,601 after the roll; safe calls alone: $30,091 vs $73,045. Odds safe calls restart: 62% vs 60%.
  • At the record's pace the extra 13 months are worth about $9,111.
  • Even after the roll the odds are only 60%: the extension is a bet on recovery, with little income in the meantime.
  • Earnings 2026-10-30 (1 days): sell no new income into it.

Today, if you keep it

Value now (mid)
$32,800
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$20,200
Max loss from here
$32,800
Margin it holds (model)
$19,746
a close frees it; $29,666 on all MSTR here
CC-SS
$172.12
safe call from $151
Net delta
+560 sh
notional $133,539
Theta
-$46/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
-
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$7,867
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$20,200
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$18,553
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
+$26,580
legs at mid + call buyback -$6,220
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
+$8,189
expected; -$7,867 if closed today
Chance of break-even
19%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$32,800
38% of the $53,000 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$40,667
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Dec 17 '27 (safe calls only). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $19,746 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding trails closing by $3,689.

Hold

No roll pays for itself: hold and keep writing calls
No roll's actual income ($694 a month, life to date (533 days)) covers 80% of the max loss it adds.

Income outlook

Income history · since 2025-05-15
Banked since entry
$18,553
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$694/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
-$780/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$4,170
Feb 2026
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
$4,170
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
$2,850
open
life pace $694/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
-$780/mo
floor $883
design $1,767
Scanner's best pick today
$1,096/mo
Banked so far
$18,553
Whole-life P/L
-$8,497
Time with a call written
99%
Call roll chain
6 rolls down to 180, $2.85/sh
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
68%
CBOE 30-day 68%
Regime
NEUTRAL
RSI 51
Next earnings
2026-10-30
1 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$3,513/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 81% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $151
spot $134
Spot needs +13% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Dec 17 '27
$47,753
Roll Jan 19 '29
$102,601
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Dec 17 '27
62%
Roll Jan 19 '29
60%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Dec 17 '27
$30,091
Roll Jan 19 '29
$73,045
Months bought
13
Worth at the record's pace
$9,111
Engine state
STALLED

Roll choices on Jan 19 '29

Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.

SAME STRIKES

The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).
FULLJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$18,700
Margin change
+$9,625
Strikes
180C / - / -
Cash at natural
-$21,900
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$54,848 (+$4,179/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$42,954 (+$3,273/mo)
Restart odds
60% (keep 62%)
Value incl. income
+$26,524
Max loss from here
$51,500 (+$18,700)
CC-SS
$166.16 (now $172.12)
Net delta
+671 sh (now +560)
CSV ND after
71.70
Worst spread / min OI
6% / 187
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 10 Dec 17 '27 180C (close)
BUY 10 Jan 19 '29 180C (open)

Side by side

FamilyExpiryLCSPHPCash midHedge estMargin chgExtra incomeExtra safeRestartValue incl. incomeMax lossCC-SSDelta sh
KEEPheldDec 17 '27180-------62%-$32,800$172.12+560
SAME STRIKESFULLJan 19 '29180---$18,700-+$9,625+$54,848
+$4,179/mo		+$42,954
+$3,273/mo		60%+$26,524$51,500$166.16+671
Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29
FamilyExpiryLCSPHPCash midHedge estMargin chgExtra incomeExtra safeRestartValue incl. incomeMax lossCC-SSDelta sh
How this was built