+4 Jan 21 '28 125C-4 Jan 21 '28 185P+4 Dec 18 '26 55P448 days leftCSV ND 12.00entry $163 -18.1%CC-SS $156.34 (+17% vs spot)BE-SS $161.00 (+21% vs spot)
Spot
$133.54
CBOE 2026-10-30 00:14:49
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 23 Oct 2027
448 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
The new expiry is still wide (worst leg spread 12% of mid, open interest as low as 69): work the order at mid, never natural.
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying! EXTEND FOR RECOVERY
Engine stalled: extending is a bet on recovery
Since 2026-05-31 it has banked $435, $48/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $153/mo against a $947/mo floor and a $1,893/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $156 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $137 (+3% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $1,405/mo at MSTR's realized keep of 81% (22 closed calls).
The record does not show the FIGHT engine running ($153/mo earned vs $1,405/mo modelled): only safe-call income is credited.
Extending to Jun 16 '28 buys 5 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $22,160 if you keep, $31,428 after the roll; safe calls alone: $16,854 vs $23,896. Odds safe calls restart: 73% vs 68%.
At the record's pace the extra 5 months are worth about $738.
Even after the roll the odds are only 68%: the extension is a bet on recovery, with little income in the meantime.
Coverage Insights: write closer: today the sweet spot 185C offers $439/mo, 2.9x what it earns.
Earnings 2026-10-30 (1 days): sell no new income into it.
Today, if you keep it
Value now (mid)
-$5,811
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$10,611
Max loss from here
$46,189
Margin it holds (model)
$34,615
a close frees it; $34,615 on all MSTR here
CC-SS
$156.34
safe call from $137
Net delta
+486 sh
notional $53,416
Theta
~$0/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$16.04
assignment LOW
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$10,508
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$10,611
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$435
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
-$6,143
legs at mid + call buyback -$332
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$567
expected; -$10,508 if closed today
Chance of break-even
35%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$46,189
19% of the $56,800 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$56,697
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (safe calls only). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $34,615 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding trails closing by $24,675.
Recommended roll
BEST: cash + margin · also BEST WITH INCOME, MOST CASH
-$7,761
cash at mid today (natural -$11,671)
FULLJun 16 '28+5 months
SELL 4 Jan 21 '28 125C (close)
BUY 4 Jan 21 '28 185P (close)
SELL 4 Dec 18 '26 55P (close)
BUY 4 Jun 16 '28 110C (open)
SELL 4 Jun 16 '28 185P (open)
BUY 4 Jun 16 '28 75P (open)
Margin change
-$3,682
freed is good; IBKR: IBKR's margin engine answers only in US market hours (21:30-04:00 SGT)
Hedge extension (est.)
none
hedge rolled too
Income over the time bought
$230
actual: $48 a month x 5 months; covers all of the max loss it adds
Restart odds
73% → 68%
safe calls paying before expiry
Max loss from here
$45,950
-$239 vs keep
CC-SS
$158.76
now $156.34
CSV ND after
31.40
at a mid fill
If you're assigned
Odds of early assignment within 12 months: 59% The holder exercises once the stock is at or below $79 in 6 months..
Close everything now: -$5,811. Wait for assignment: +$605 (the put spread -$20,515, plus the 125C you keep, worth $21,120). About the same, and waiting keeps the call income.
On assignment: sell the shares and sell the hedge put (never exercise it): $20,515 more ($51 a share). Basis 63.29; the 125C alone has CC-SS $150.19 (now $156.34), break-even $188, margin about zero.
Calls afterwards (Dec 04 '26, 35d): a 125C (at or above the call) about $8,970 a cycle; a 165C (~0.30 delta) about $1,940 a cycle, but a rally can cost up to $0 a cycle. The 125C loses about $402 a month to time.
Ride the 125C: safe calls out-earn its decay.
Income outlook
Income history · since 2026-05-31
Banked since entry
$435
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$48/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$153/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$580
Jun 2026
May
$580
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
$240
open
life pace $48/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$153/mo
BELOW DESIGN
floor $947
design $1,893
$153/mo earned pays the hedge but is under half of the $1,893/mo it is designed to earn
Scanner's best pick today
$439/mo
Banked so far
$435
Whole-life P/L
-$10,503
Time with a call written
99%
Call roll chain
5 rolls down to 150, $0.60/sh
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
68%
CBOE 30-day 68%
Regime
NEUTRAL
RSI 51
Next earnings
2026-10-30
1 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$1,405/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 81% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $137
spot $134
Spot needs +3% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$22,160
Roll Jun 16 '28
$31,428
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
73%
Roll Jun 16 '28
68%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$16,854
Roll Jun 16 '28
$23,896
Months bought
5
Worth at the record's pace
$738
Engine state
STALLED
Roll choices on Jun 16 '28
Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.
BEST: cash + margin
Most cash received net of margin added (the 2026-10-22 rule): the recommended roll.
FULLJun 16 '28also BEST WITH INCOMEalso MOST CASH
Cash at mid
-$7,761
Margin change
-$3,682
Strikes
110C / -185P / +75P
Cash at natural
-$11,671
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$9,268 (+$1,917/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$7,043 (+$1,456/mo)
Restart odds
68% (keep 73%)
Value incl. income
+$5,190
Max loss from here
$45,950 (-$239)
CC-SS
$158.76 (now $156.34)
Net delta
+451 sh (now +486)
CSV ND after
31.40
Worst spread / min OI
12% / 69
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 4 Jan 21 '28 125C (close)
BUY 4 Jan 21 '28 185P (close)
SELL 4 Dec 18 '26 55P (close)
BUY 4 Jun 16 '28 110C (open)
SELL 4 Jun 16 '28 185P (open)
BUY 4 Jun 16 '28 75P (open)
LEAST MARGIN
Largest drop (or smallest rise) in maintenance margin.
FULLJun 16 '28
Cash at mid
-$15,781
Margin change
-$4,542
Strikes
90C / -185P / +100P
Cash at natural
-$20,211
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$9,251 (+$1,913/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$7,000 (+$1,448/mo)
Restart odds
68% (keep 73%)
Value incl. income
-$1,988
Max loss from here
$43,970 (-$2,219)
CC-SS
$158.98 (now $156.34)
Net delta
+445 sh (now +486)
CSV ND after
51.45
Worst spread / min OI
12% / 99
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 4 Jan 21 '28 125C (close)
BUY 4 Jan 21 '28 185P (close)
SELL 4 Dec 18 '26 55P (close)
BUY 4 Jun 16 '28 90C (open)
SELL 4 Jun 16 '28 185P (open)
BUY 4 Jun 16 '28 100P (open)
LOWEST MAX LOSS
Smallest worst-case loss from here.
FULLJun 16 '28
Cash at mid
-$21,691
Margin change
-$4,277
Strikes
75C / -185P / +115P
Cash at natural
-$25,771
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$9,262 (+$1,915/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$7,026 (+$1,453/mo)
Restart odds
68% (keep 73%)
Value incl. income
-$8,152
Max loss from here
$43,880 (-$2,309)
CC-SS
$158.85 (now $156.34)
Net delta
+442 sh (now +486)
CSV ND after
66.23
Worst spread / min OI
9% / 38
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 4 Jan 21 '28 125C (close)
BUY 4 Jan 21 '28 185P (close)
SELL 4 Dec 18 '26 55P (close)
BUY 4 Jun 16 '28 75C (open)
SELL 4 Jun 16 '28 185P (open)
BUY 4 Jun 16 '28 115P (open)
INCOME ENGINE
Most expected income to the new expiry, FIGHT included (model).
FULLJun 16 '28
Cash at mid
-$18,271
Margin change
-$3,094
Strikes
75C / -190P / +105P
Cash at natural
-$22,331
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$9,334 (+$1,930/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$7,203 (+$1,490/mo)
Restart odds
68% (keep 73%)
Value incl. income
-$5,843
Max loss from here
$46,460 (+$271)
CC-SS
$157.90 (now $156.34)
Net delta
+460 sh (now +486)
CSV ND after
57.68
Worst spread / min OI
9% / 38
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 4 Jan 21 '28 125C (close)
BUY 4 Jan 21 '28 185P (close)
SELL 4 Dec 18 '26 55P (close)
BUY 4 Jun 16 '28 75C (open)
SELL 4 Jun 16 '28 190P (open)
BUY 4 Jun 16 '28 105P (open)
SAME STRIKES
The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).
LEAPS ONLYJun 16 '28
Cash at mid
-$860
Margin change
-$675
Strikes
125C / -185P / +55P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$4,040
Hedge extension (est.)
-$580
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$9,399 (+$1,944/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$7,364 (+$1,523/mo)
Restart odds
69% (keep 73%)
Value incl. income
+$8,634
Max loss from here
$47,049 (+$860)
CC-SS
$157.03 (now $156.34)
Net delta
+476 sh (now +486)
CSV ND after
14.15
Worst spread / min OI
9% / 99
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 4 Jan 21 '28 125C (close)
BUY 4 Jan 21 '28 185P (close)
BUY 4 Jun 16 '28 125C (open)
SELL 4 Jun 16 '28 185P (open)
Side by side
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
KEEP
held
Jan 21 '28
125
185
55
-
-
-
-
-
73%
-
$46,189
$156.34
+486
BEST
FULL
Jun 16 '28
110
185
75
-$7,761
-
-$3,682
+$9,268 +$1,917/mo
+$7,043 +$1,456/mo
68%
+$5,190
$45,950
$158.76
+451
BEST WITH INCOME
FULL
Jun 16 '28
110
185
75
-$7,761
-
-$3,682
+$9,268 +$1,917/mo
+$7,043 +$1,456/mo
68%
+$5,190
$45,950
$158.76
+451
MOST CASH
FULL
Jun 16 '28
110
185
75
-$7,761
-
-$3,682
+$9,268 +$1,917/mo
+$7,043 +$1,456/mo
68%
+$5,190
$45,950
$158.76
+451
LEAST MARGIN
FULL
Jun 16 '28
90
185
100
-$15,781
-
-$4,542
+$9,251 +$1,913/mo
+$7,000 +$1,448/mo
68%
-$1,988
$43,970
$158.98
+445
LOWEST MAX LOSS
FULL
Jun 16 '28
75
185
115
-$21,691
-
-$4,277
+$9,262 +$1,915/mo
+$7,026 +$1,453/mo
68%
-$8,152
$43,880
$158.85
+442
INCOME ENGINE
FULL
Jun 16 '28
75
190
105
-$18,271
-
-$3,094
+$9,334 +$1,930/mo
+$7,203 +$1,490/mo
68%
-$5,843
$46,460
$157.90
+460
SAME STRIKES
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
125
185
55 (kept)
-$860
-$580
-$675
+$9,399 +$1,944/mo
+$7,364 +$1,523/mo
69%
+$8,634
$47,049
$157.03
+476
Cost of waiting
The BEST roll done later instead of today (-$7,761 at mid). Black-Scholes at each leg's IV, aged and moved, anchored on today's market. Estimates.
Roll on
Days before expiry
Spot -30% ($93)
Spot +0% ($134)
Spot +30% ($174)
Today
448
-
-$7,761
-
2027-10-23
90
-$8,406
-$5,837
-$3,280
2027-12-07
45
-$8,382
-$6,180
-$2,185
How much time to buy
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
Jun 16 '28
FULL
Jun 16 '28
110
185
75
-$7,761
-
-$3,682
+$9,268 +$1,917/mo
+$7,043 +$1,456/mo
68%
+$5,190
$45,950
$158.76
+451
Top 25 candidates on Jun 16 '28
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
1
FULL
Jun 16 '28
110
185
75
-$7,761
-
-$3,682
+$9,268 +$1,917/mo
+$7,043 +$1,456/mo
68%
+$5,190
$45,950
$158.76
+451
2
FULL
Jun 16 '28
100
185
85
-$11,611
-
-$3,733
+$9,272 +$1,918/mo
+$7,052 +$1,458/mo
68%
+$1,394
$45,800
$158.71
+451
3
FULL
Jun 16 '28
95
190
90
-$11,921
-
-$3,363
+$9,295 +$1,922/mo
+$7,108 +$1,470/mo
68%
+$738
$46,110
$158.41
+456
4
FULL
Jun 16 '28
95
185
90
-$13,291
-
-$3,825
+$9,274 +$1,918/mo
+$7,057 +$1,459/mo
68%
-$192
$45,480
$158.68
+451
5
FULL
Jun 16 '28
90
190
95
-$13,581
-
-$3,424
+$9,299 +$1,923/mo
+$7,116 +$1,472/mo
68%
-$858
$45,770
$158.37
+456
6
FULL
Jun 16 '28
90
185
90
-$14,171
-
-$3,309
+$9,303 +$1,924/mo
+$7,127 +$1,474/mo
68%
-$1,559
$46,360
$158.31
+456
7
FULL
Jun 16 '28
90
185
95
-$14,951
-
-$3,886
+$9,278 +$1,919/mo
+$7,065 +$1,461/mo
68%
-$1,787
$45,140
$158.64
+450
8
FULL
Jun 16 '28
90
185
100
-$15,781
-
-$4,542
+$9,251 +$1,913/mo
+$7,000 +$1,448/mo
68%
-$1,988
$43,970
$158.98
+445
9
FULL
Jun 16 '28
90
180
90
-$15,671
-
-$3,652
+$9,285 +$1,920/mo
+$7,082 +$1,465/mo
68%
-$2,734
$45,860
$158.55
+451
10
FULL
Jun 16 '28
80
190
105
-$17,421
-
-$3,640
+$9,303 +$1,924/mo
+$7,126 +$1,474/mo
68%
-$4,478
$45,610
$158.31
+455
11
FULL
Jun 16 '28
80
185
100
-$17,891
-
-$3,436
+$9,308 +$1,925/mo
+$7,138 +$1,476/mo
68%
-$5,147
$46,080
$158.25
+455
12
FULL
Jun 16 '28
80
185
105
-$18,791
-
-$4,102
+$9,282 +$1,919/mo
+$7,075 +$1,463/mo
68%
-$5,407
$44,980
$158.59
+449
13
FULL
Jun 16 '28
75
190
105
-$18,271
-
-$3,094
+$9,334 +$1,930/mo
+$7,203 +$1,490/mo
68%
-$5,843
$46,460
$157.90
+460
14
FULL
Jun 16 '28
80
185
110
-$19,811
-
-$4,331
+$9,255 +$1,914/mo
+$7,009 +$1,449/mo
68%
-$6,225
$44,000
$158.94
+443
15
FULL
Jun 16 '28
80
180
100
-$19,391
-
-$3,779
+$9,289 +$1,921/mo
+$7,093 +$1,467/mo
68%
-$6,323
$45,580
$158.49
+450
16
FULL
Jun 16 '28
75
190
110
-$19,291
-
-$3,323
+$9,309 +$1,925/mo
+$7,141 +$1,477/mo
68%
-$6,659
$45,480
$158.23
+454
17
FULL
Jun 16 '28
75
185
105
-$19,641
-
-$3,555
+$9,314 +$1,926/mo
+$7,154 +$1,479/mo
68%
-$6,772
$45,830
$158.16
+454
18
FULL
Jun 16 '28
75
185
110
-$20,661
-
-$3,784
+$9,288 +$1,921/mo
+$7,090 +$1,466/mo
68%
-$7,589
$44,850
$158.50
+448
19
FULL
Jun 16 '28
75
180
100
-$20,241
-
-$3,233
+$9,321 +$1,928/mo
+$7,172 +$1,483/mo
68%
-$7,687
$46,430
$158.07
+455
20
FULL
Jun 16 '28
75
180
105
-$21,141
-
-$3,898
+$9,296 +$1,922/mo
+$7,109 +$1,470/mo
68%
-$7,947
$45,330
$158.41
+449
21
FULL
Jun 16 '28
75
185
115
-$21,691
-
-$4,277
+$9,262 +$1,915/mo
+$7,026 +$1,453/mo
68%
-$8,152
$43,880
$158.85
+442
22
FULL
Jun 16 '28
75
175
100
-$21,781
-
-$3,535
+$9,303 +$1,924/mo
+$7,127 +$1,474/mo
68%
-$8,943
$45,970
$158.31
+449
23
FULL
Jun 16 '28
70
190
115
-$21,501
-
-$3,235
+$9,311 +$1,926/mo
+$7,146 +$1,478/mo
68%
-$8,955
$45,690
$158.20
+452
24
FULL
Jun 16 '28
70
185
110
-$21,841
-
-$3,204
+$9,316 +$1,927/mo
+$7,158 +$1,480/mo
68%
-$9,322
$46,030
$158.14
+453
25
FULL
Jun 16 '28
70
185
115
-$22,871
-
-$3,696
+$9,290 +$1,921/mo
+$7,096 +$1,467/mo
68%
-$9,884
$45,060
$158.48
+447
How this was built
1523 rolls on the real strikes of Jun 16 '28, Dec 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 27 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($161.00), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.27), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (68%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 03:50. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.