+4 Jan 21 '28 125C-4 Jan 21 '28 185P+4 Dec 18 '26 55P448 days leftCSV ND 12.00entry $163 -23.1%CC-SS $162.98 (+30% vs spot)BE-SS $161.00 (+28% vs spot)
Spot
$125.40
CBOE 2026-10-30 13:50:14
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 23 Oct 2027
448 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying! EXTEND FOR RECOVERY
Engine stalled: extending is a bet on recovery
Since 2026-05-31 it has banked $435, $48/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $153/mo against a $947/mo floor and a $1,893/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $163 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $140 (+12% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $1,441/mo at MSTR's realized keep of 81% (22 closed calls).
The record does not show the FIGHT engine running ($153/mo earned vs $1,441/mo modelled): only safe-call income is credited.
Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 12 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $21,487 if you keep, $41,900 after the roll; safe calls alone: $14,484 vs $27,810. Odds safe calls restart: 61% vs 55%.
At the record's pace the extra 12 months are worth about $1,828.
Even after the roll the odds are only 55%: the extension is a bet on recovery, with little income in the meantime.
Coverage Insights: write closer: today the sweet spot 185C offers $439/mo, 2.9x what it earns.
Today, if you keep it
Value now (mid)
-$12,838
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$17,638
Max loss from here
$39,162
Margin it holds (IBKR)
$29,975
a close frees it; model $32,901; $32,901 on all MSTR here
CC-SS
$162.98
safe call from $140
Net delta
+492 sh
notional $50,160
Theta
-$4/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$15.62
assignment LOW
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$17,207
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$17,638
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$435
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
-$12,842
legs at mid + call buyback -$4
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$6,128
expected; -$17,207 if closed today
Chance of break-even
30%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$39,162
31% of the $56,800 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$56,369
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (safe calls only). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $32,901 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding trails closing by $21,822.
Hold
No roll pays for itself: hold and keep writing calls
No roll's actual income ($48 a month, life to date (152 days)) covers 80% of the max loss it adds and of the cash it costs.
If you're assigned
Odds of early assignment within 12 months: 62% The holder exercises once the stock is at or below $71 in 6 months..
Close everything now: -$12,838. Wait for assignment: -$6,588 (the put spread -$23,718, plus the 125C you keep, worth $17,130). About the same, and waiting keeps the call income.
On assignment: sell the shares and sell the hedge put (never exercise it): $23,718 more ($59 a share). Basis 71.30; the 125C alone has CC-SS $166.14 (now $162.98), break-even $196, margin about zero.
Calls afterwards (Dec 04 '26, 35d): a 125C (at or above the call) about $4,890 a cycle; a 145C (~0.30 delta) about $1,950 a cycle, but a rally can cost up to $0 a cycle. The 125C loses about $413 a month to time.
Ride the 125C: safe calls out-earn its decay.
Income outlook
Income history · since 2026-05-31
Banked since entry
$435
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$48/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$153/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$580
Jun 2026
May
$580
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
$240
open
life pace $48/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$153/mo
BELOW DESIGN
floor $947
design $1,893
$153/mo earned pays the hedge but is under half of the $1,893/mo it is designed to earn
Scanner's best pick today
$439/mo
Banked so far
$435
Whole-life P/L
-$10,503
Time with a call written
99%
Call roll chain
5 rolls down to 150, $0.60/sh
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
75%
CBOE 30-day 73%
Regime
NEUTRAL
RSI 47
Next earnings
2027-02-04
97 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$1,441/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 81% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $140
spot $125
Spot needs +12% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$21,487
Roll Jan 19 '29
$41,900
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
61%
Roll Jan 19 '29
55%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$14,484
Roll Jan 19 '29
$27,810
Months bought
12
Worth at the record's pace
$1,828
Engine state
STALLED
Roll choices on Jan 19 '29
Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.
SAME STRIKES
The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$2,260
Margin change
-$1,072
Strikes
125C / -185P / +55P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$6,420
Hedge extension (est.)
-$1,950
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$20,413 (+$1,705/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$13,326 (+$1,113/mo)
Restart odds
55% (keep 61%)
Value incl. income
+$17,274
Max loss from here
$41,422 (+$2,260)
CC-SS
$164.94 (now $162.98)
Net delta
+476 sh (now +492)
CSV ND after
17.65
Worst spread / min OI
10% / 54
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 4 Jan 21 '28 125C (close)
BUY 4 Jan 21 '28 185P (close)
BUY 4 Jan 19 '29 125C (open)
SELL 4 Jan 19 '29 185P (open)
Side by side
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
KEEP
held
Jan 21 '28
125
185
55
-
-
-
-
-
61%
-
$39,162
$162.98
+492
SAME STRIKES
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
125
185
55 (kept)
-$2,260
-$1,950
-$1,072
+$20,413 +$1,705/mo
+$13,326 +$1,113/mo
55%
+$17,274
$41,422
$164.94
+476
Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
How this was built
1660 rolls on the real strikes of Jun 16 '28, Dec 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 0 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($161.00), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.28), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (75%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 21:34. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.