LEAPS Extend · 2026-10-30 · All fortresses

NVDA · Main

+10 Jun 16 '28 215C-10 Jun 16 '28 225P+10 Jun 16 '28 200P595 days leftCSV ND 49.80entry $228 -7.8%CC-SS $231.47 (+10% vs spot)BE-SS $264.80 (+26% vs spot)
Spot
$210.15
CBOE 2026-10-30 02:39:21
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 18 Mar 2028
  • 595 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 18 Mar 2028 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
  • Holding as is costs about $24 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
  • The new expiry is still wide (worst leg spread 15% of mid, open interest as low as 190): work the order at mid, never natural.
  • The best roll lowers the CC-SS from $231 to $231: covered calls can be written $1 closer to spot.
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying✓ EXTEND
It fights for its income: the extra time pays for the roll
  • Since 2026-09-03 it has banked $3,810, $1,647/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $1,647/mo against a $1,247/mo floor and a $2,493/mo design.
  • Safe calls (at or above the $231 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $216 (+3% from here).
  • FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $2,706/mo at NVDA's realized keep of 65% (23 closed calls).
  • The record shows it fights: $1,647/mo earned against a modelled $2,706/mo, so FIGHT income counts toward the time.
  • Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 7 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $69,592 if you keep, $95,224 after the roll; safe calls alone: $52,153 vs $71,913. Odds safe calls restart: 79% vs 77%.
  • At the record's pace the extra 7 months are worth about $11,759.
  • Earnings 2026-11-17 (19 days): sell no new income into it.

Today, if you keep it

Value now (mid)
$35,325
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$14,475
Max loss from here
$60,325
Margin it holds (model)
$29,600
a close frees it; $29,600 on all NVDA here
CC-SS
$231.47
safe call from $216
Net delta
+757 sh
notional $210,147
Theta
-$24/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$26.35
assignment LOW
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$11,820
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$14,475
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$3,810
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
+$34,170
legs at mid + call buyback -$1,155
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
+$40,744
expected; -$11,820 if closed today
Chance of break-even
45%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$60,325
19% of the $74,800 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$72,145
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jun 16 '28 (FIGHT included). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $29,600 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding beats closing by $22,964.

Recommended roll

BEST: cash + margin · also BEST WITH INCOME, MOST CASH
+$7,875
cash at mid today (natural -$300)
FULLJan 19 '29+7 months
SELL 10 Jun 16 '28 215C (close)
BUY 10 Jun 16 '28 225P (close)
SELL 10 Jun 16 '28 200P (close)
BUY 10 Jan 19 '29 230C (open)
SELL 10 Jan 19 '29 235P (open)
BUY 10 Jan 19 '29 190P (open)
Margin change
+$2,340
freed is good; IBKR: IBKR's margin engine answers only in US market hours (21:30-04:00 SGT)
Hedge extension (est.)
none
hedge rolled too
Income over the time bought
$9,742
actual: $1,365 a month x 7 months; covers 80% of the max loss it adds
Restart odds
79% → 77%
safe calls paying before expiry
Max loss from here
$72,450
+$12,125 vs keep
CC-SS
$230.72
now $231.47
CSV ND after
41.92
at a mid fill

Income outlook

Income history · since 2026-09-03
Banked since entry
$3,810
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$1,647/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$1,647/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$1,560
Sep 2026
$1,560
Sep
Oct
$1,330
open
life pace $1,647/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$1,647/mo
EARNING ITS KEEP
floor $1,247
design $2,493
$1,647/mo earned, at least half of the $2,493/mo it is designed to earn
Scanner's best pick today
$812/mo
Banked so far
$3,810
Whole-life P/L
-$11,565
Time with a call written
87%
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
39%
CBOE 30-day 40%
Regime
NEUTRAL
RSI 51
Next earnings
2026-11-17
19 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$2,706/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 65% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $216
spot $210
Spot needs +3% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jun 16 '28
$69,592
Roll Jan 19 '29
$95,224
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jun 16 '28
79%
Roll Jan 19 '29
77%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jun 16 '28
$52,153
Roll Jan 19 '29
$71,913
Months bought
7
Worth at the record's pace
$11,759
Engine state
FIGHTING

Roll choices on Jan 19 '29

Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.

BEST: cash + margin

Most cash received net of margin added (the 2026-10-22 rule): the recommended roll.
FULLJan 19 '29also BEST WITH INCOMEalso MOST CASH
Cash at mid
+$7,875
Margin change
+$2,340
Strikes
230C / -235P / +190P
Cash at natural
-$300
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$25,632 (+$3,591/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$19,761 (+$2,768/mo)
Restart odds
77% (keep 79%)
Value incl. income
+$31,167
Max loss from here
$72,450 (+$12,125)
CC-SS
$230.72 (now $231.47)
Net delta
+800 sh (now +757)
CSV ND after
41.92
Worst spread / min OI
15% / 190
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 10 Jun 16 '28 215C (close)
BUY 10 Jun 16 '28 225P (close)
SELL 10 Jun 16 '28 200P (close)
BUY 10 Jan 19 '29 230C (open)
SELL 10 Jan 19 '29 235P (open)
BUY 10 Jan 19 '29 190P (open)

LEAST MARGIN

Largest drop (or smallest rise) in maintenance margin.
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29also LOWEST MAX LOSS
Cash at mid
-$7,750
Margin change
-$619
Strikes
215C / -220P / +200P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$11,200
Hedge extension (est.)
-$4,650
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$25,347 (+$3,551/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$19,268 (+$2,699/mo)
Restart odds
76% (keep 79%)
Value incl. income
+$13,566
Max loss from here
$63,075 (+$2,750)
CC-SS
$232.00 (now $231.47)
Net delta
+746 sh (now +757)
CSV ND after
57.55
Worst spread / min OI
10% / 1298
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 10 Jun 16 '28 215C (close)
BUY 10 Jun 16 '28 225P (close)
BUY 10 Jan 19 '29 215C (open)
SELL 10 Jan 19 '29 220P (open)

INCOME ENGINE

Most expected income to the new expiry, FIGHT included (model).
FULLJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$21,725
Margin change
+$2,261
Strikes
195C / -235P / +220P
Cash at natural
-$32,650
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$25,751 (+$3,608/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$19,967 (+$2,797/mo)
Restart odds
78% (keep 79%)
Value incl. income
+$1,765
Max loss from here
$72,050 (+$11,725)
CC-SS
$230.18 (now $231.47)
Net delta
+798 sh (now +757)
CSV ND after
71.53
Worst spread / min OI
15% / 147
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 10 Jun 16 '28 215C (close)
BUY 10 Jun 16 '28 225P (close)
SELL 10 Jun 16 '28 200P (close)
BUY 10 Jan 19 '29 195C (open)
SELL 10 Jan 19 '29 235P (open)
BUY 10 Jan 19 '29 220P (open)

SAME STRIKES

The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).
FULLJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$11,350
Margin change
+$1,712
Strikes
215C / -225P / +200P
Cash at natural
-$16,400
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$25,564 (+$3,581/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$19,642 (+$2,752/mo)
Restart odds
77% (keep 79%)
Value incl. income
+$12,501
Max loss from here
$71,675 (+$11,350)
CC-SS
$231.03 (now $231.47)
Net delta
+774 sh (now +757)
CSV ND after
61.15
Worst spread / min OI
10% / 1277
Danger point
none to -60% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 10 Jun 16 '28 215C (close)
BUY 10 Jun 16 '28 225P (close)
SELL 10 Jun 16 '28 200P (close)
BUY 10 Jan 19 '29 215C (open)
SELL 10 Jan 19 '29 225P (open)
BUY 10 Jan 19 '29 200P (open)

Side by side

FamilyExpiryLCSPHPCash midHedge estMargin chgExtra incomeExtra safeRestartValue incl. incomeMax lossCC-SSDelta sh
KEEPheldJun 16 '28215225200-----79%-$60,325$231.47+757
BESTFULLJan 19 '29230235190+$7,875-+$2,340+$25,632
+$3,591/mo
+$19,761
+$2,768/mo
77%+$31,167$72,450$230.72+800
BEST WITH INCOMEFULLJan 19 '29230235190+$7,875-+$2,340+$25,632
+$3,591/mo
+$19,761
+$2,768/mo
77%+$31,167$72,450$230.72+800
MOST CASHFULLJan 19 '29230235190+$7,875-+$2,340+$25,632
+$3,591/mo
+$19,761
+$2,768/mo
77%+$31,167$72,450$230.72+800
LEAST MARGINLEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29215220200 (kept)-$7,750-$4,650-$619+$25,347
+$3,551/mo
+$19,268
+$2,699/mo
76%+$13,566$63,075$232.00+746
LOWEST MAX LOSSLEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29215220200 (kept)-$7,750-$4,650-$619+$25,347
+$3,551/mo
+$19,268
+$2,699/mo
76%+$13,566$63,075$232.00+746
INCOME ENGINEFULLJan 19 '29195235220-$21,725-+$2,261+$25,751
+$3,608/mo
+$19,967
+$2,797/mo
78%+$1,765$72,050$230.18+798
SAME STRIKESFULLJan 19 '29215225200-$11,350-+$1,712+$25,564
+$3,581/mo
+$19,642
+$2,752/mo
77%+$12,501$71,675$231.03+774

Cost of waiting

The BEST roll done later instead of today (+$7,875 at mid). Black-Scholes at each leg's IV, aged and moved, anchored on today's market. Estimates.
Roll onDays before expirySpot -30% ($147)Spot +0% ($210)Spot +30% ($273)
Today595-+$7,875-
2028-03-1890+$10,114+$849+$5,785
2028-05-0245+$10,875-$1,794+$6,804

How much time to buy

FamilyExpiryLCSPHPCash midHedge estMargin chgExtra incomeExtra safeRestartValue incl. incomeMax lossCC-SSDelta sh
Dec 15 '28LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '28230235200 (kept)+$7,900-$4,100-$263+$21,066
+$3,519/mo
+$15,940
+$2,663/mo
77%+$25,129$62,425$232.09+752
Jan 19 '29FULLJan 19 '29230235190+$7,875-+$2,340+$25,632
+$3,591/mo
+$19,761
+$2,768/mo
77%+$31,167$72,450$230.72+800
Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29
FamilyExpiryLCSPHPCash midHedge estMargin chgExtra incomeExtra safeRestartValue incl. incomeMax lossCC-SSDelta sh
1FULLJan 19 '29230235190+$7,875-+$2,340+$25,632
+$3,591/mo
+$19,761
+$2,768/mo
77%+$31,167$72,450$230.72+800
2FULLJan 19 '29225235195+$3,200-+$2,341+$25,630
+$3,591/mo
+$19,757
+$2,768/mo
77%+$26,489$72,125$230.73+798
3LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29225235200 (kept)+$5,025-$4,650+$400+$25,418
+$3,561/mo
+$19,390
+$2,716/mo
77%+$25,392$65,300$231.69+770
4LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29220235200 (kept)+$3,275-$4,650+$1,024+$25,507
+$3,573/mo
+$19,544
+$2,738/mo
77%+$23,108$67,050$231.29+785
5FULLJan 19 '29220235200-$1,375-+$2,230+$25,630
+$3,591/mo
+$19,758
+$2,768/mo
77%+$22,025$71,700$230.73+796
6LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29220230200 (kept)-$700-$4,650+$369+$25,430
+$3,563/mo
+$19,412
+$2,719/mo
77%+$19,712$66,025$231.63+767
7LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29215235200 (kept)+$625-$4,650+$1,860+$25,594
+$3,586/mo
+$19,695
+$2,759/mo
77%+$19,709$69,700$230.89+799
8FULLJan 19 '29215235205-$6,325-+$1,969+$25,636
+$3,591/mo
+$19,768
+$2,769/mo
77%+$17,343$71,650$230.70+793
9FULLJan 19 '29215220190-$6,850-+$2,017+$25,653
+$3,594/mo
+$19,796
+$2,773/mo
77%+$16,786$72,175$230.63+789
10LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29215230200 (kept)-$3,350-$4,650+$1,205+$25,521
+$3,575/mo
+$19,568
+$2,741/mo
77%+$16,315$68,675$231.22+781
11LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29210235200 (kept)-$1,975-$4,650+$2,631+$25,677
+$3,597/mo
+$19,839
+$2,779/mo
77%+$16,421$72,300$230.52+813
12LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29215220200 (kept)-$7,750-$4,650-$619+$25,347
+$3,551/mo
+$19,268
+$2,699/mo
76%+$13,566$63,075$232.00+746
13LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29215225200 (kept)-$6,700-$4,650+$506+$25,438
+$3,564/mo
+$19,425
+$2,721/mo
77%+$13,582$67,025$231.60+763
14LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29210230200 (kept)-$5,950-$4,650+$1,976+$25,606
+$3,587/mo
+$19,716
+$2,762/mo
77%+$13,030$71,275$230.84+795
15FULLJan 19 '29210235210-$11,450-+$1,669+$25,641
+$3,592/mo
+$19,775
+$2,770/mo
77%+$12,521$71,775$230.68+790
16FULLJan 19 '29210220195-$12,175-+$2,092+$25,651
+$3,593/mo
+$19,793
+$2,773/mo
77%+$11,384$72,500$230.64+788
17LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29210220200 (kept)-$10,350-$4,650+$152+$25,439
+$3,564/mo
+$19,427
+$2,722/mo
77%+$10,288$65,675$231.59+760
18LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29210225200 (kept)-$9,300-$4,650+$1,277+$25,526
+$3,576/mo
+$19,578
+$2,743/mo
77%+$10,299$69,625$231.20+778
19FULLJan 19 '29205235215-$15,325-+$1,561+$25,650
+$3,593/mo
+$19,791
+$2,773/mo
77%+$8,764$70,650$230.64+787
20LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29205220200 (kept)-$11,825-$4,650+$786+$25,532
+$3,577/mo
+$19,587
+$2,744/mo
77%+$8,271$67,150$231.17+774
21LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29205225200 (kept)-$10,775-$4,650+$1,911+$25,616
+$3,589/mo
+$19,733
+$2,764/mo
77%+$8,280$71,100$230.79+792
22FULLJan 19 '29205210190-$16,175-+$1,995+$25,667
+$3,596/mo
+$19,821
+$2,777/mo
77%+$7,497$71,500$230.56+783
23FULLJan 19 '29205220200-$16,475-+$1,992+$25,655
+$3,594/mo
+$19,800
+$2,774/mo
77%+$7,188$71,800$230.62+785
24FULLJan 19 '29205215195-$16,500-+$2,042+$25,660
+$3,595/mo
+$19,809
+$2,775/mo
77%+$7,117$71,825$230.60+784
25FULLJan 19 '29205230210-$16,900-+$1,649+$25,656
+$3,594/mo
+$19,803
+$2,774/mo
77%+$7,108$72,225$230.61+787
How this was built