LEAPS Extend · 2026-10-30 · All fortresses

SNDK · Neville

+1 Jan 21 '28 1200C-1 Jan 21 '28 1380P+1 Feb 19 '27 810P448 days leftCSV ND 420.00entry $1636 -21.8%CC-SS $1589.53 (+24% vs spot)BE-SS $1620.00 (+27% vs spot)
Spot
$1278.66
CBOE 2026-10-30 00:04:34
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 23 Oct 2027
  • 448 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 23 Oct 2027 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
  • Holding as is costs about $22 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying✓ EXTEND
It fights for its income: the extra time pays for the roll
  • Since 2026-08-14 it has banked $13,078, $5,095/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $5,095/mo against a $1,650/mo floor and a $3,300/mo design.
  • Safe calls (at or above the $1590 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $1390 (+9% from here).
  • FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $2,939/mo at whole book's realized keep of 71% (664 closed calls).
  • The record shows it fights: $5,095/mo earned against a modelled $2,939/mo, so FIGHT income counts toward the time.
  • Extending to Dec 15 '28 buys 11 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $48,972 if you keep, $89,332 after the roll; safe calls alone: $36,519 vs $67,216. Odds safe calls restart: 66% vs 60%.
  • At the record's pace the extra 11 months are worth about $55,143.
  • Earnings 2026-10-30 (1 days): sell no new income into it.

Today, if you keep it

Value now (mid)
$11,290
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$30,710
Max loss from here
$68,290
Margin it holds (model)
$36,431
a close frees it; $36,431 on all SNDK here
CC-SS
$1589.53
safe call from $1390
Net delta
+102 sh
notional $127,866
Theta
-$22/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$273.96
assignment LOW
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$17,632
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$30,710
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$13,078
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
+$11,290
legs at mid + call buyback +$0
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
+$25,454
expected; -$17,632 if closed today
Chance of break-even
42%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$68,290
31% of the $99,000 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$85,922
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Jan 21 '28 (FIGHT included). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $36,431 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding beats closing by $6,655.

Recommended roll

BEST: cash + margin
+$2,020
cash at mid today (natural -$1,060)
LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '28+11 months
SELL 1 Jan 21 '28 1200C (close)
BUY 1 Jan 21 '28 1380P (close)
BUY 1 Dec 15 '28 1250C (open)
SELL 1 Dec 15 '28 1440P (open)
Margin change
-$222
freed is good; IBKR: IBKR's margin engine answers only in US market hours (21:30-04:00 SGT)
Hedge extension (est.)
-$5,865
kept hedge carried to the new expiry
Income over the time bought
$19,548
actual: $1,806 a month x 11 months; covers 491% of the max loss it adds
Restart odds
66% → 60%
safe calls paying before expiry
Max loss from here
$72,270
+$3,980 vs keep
CC-SS
$1595.13
now $1589.53
CSV ND after
399.80
at a mid fill

Income outlook

Income history · since 2026-08-14
Banked since entry
$13,078
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$5,095/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$5,095/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$9,831
Oct 2026
Aug
Sep
$9,831
Oct
life pace $5,095/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$5,095/mo
EARNING ITS KEEP
floor $1,650
design $3,300
$5,095/mo earned, at least half of the $3,300/mo it is designed to earn and above its hedge
Scanner's best pick today
$4,749/mo
Banked so far
$13,078
Whole-life P/L
-$19,210
Time with a call written
83%
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
69%
CBOE 30-day 71%
Regime
NEUTRAL
RSI 48
Next earnings
2026-10-30
1 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$2,939/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 71% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $1390
spot $1279
Spot needs +9% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$48,972
Roll Dec 15 '28
$89,332
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Jan 21 '28
66%
Roll Dec 15 '28
60%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Jan 21 '28
$36,519
Roll Dec 15 '28
$67,216
Months bought
11
Worth at the record's pace
$55,143
Engine state
FIGHTING

Roll choices on Dec 15 '28

Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.

BEST: cash + margin

Most cash received net of margin added (the 2026-10-22 rule): the recommended roll.
LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '28
Cash at mid
+$2,020
Margin change
-$222
Strikes
1250C / -1440P / +810P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$1,060
Hedge extension (est.)
-$5,865
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$40,360 (+$3,729/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$30,697 (+$2,836/mo)
Restart odds
60% (keep 66%)
Value incl. income
+$36,737
Max loss from here
$72,270 (+$3,980)
CC-SS
$1595.13 (now $1589.53)
Net delta
+101 sh (now +102)
CSV ND after
399.80
Worst spread / min OI
4% / 19
Danger point
-24% (now -23%)
Order legs
SELL 1 Jan 21 '28 1200C (close)
BUY 1 Jan 21 '28 1380P (close)
BUY 1 Dec 15 '28 1250C (open)
SELL 1 Dec 15 '28 1440P (open)

BEST WITH INCOME

Cash + margin + the extra income the time buys, FIGHT included (model).
LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '28also MOST CASH
Cash at mid
+$2,720
Margin change
-$453
Strikes
1270C / -1440P / +810P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$260
Hedge extension (est.)
-$5,865
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$40,262 (+$3,720/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$30,501 (+$2,818/mo)
Restart odds
60% (keep 66%)
Value incl. income
+$37,570
Max loss from here
$71,570 (+$3,280)
CC-SS
$1596.82 (now $1589.53)
Net delta
+100 sh (now +102)
CSV ND after
392.80
Worst spread / min OI
4% / 19
Danger point
-24% (now -23%)
Order legs
SELL 1 Jan 21 '28 1200C (close)
BUY 1 Jan 21 '28 1380P (close)
BUY 1 Dec 15 '28 1270C (open)
SELL 1 Dec 15 '28 1440P (open)

LEAST MARGIN

Largest drop (or smallest rise) in maintenance margin.
FULLDec 15 '28
Cash at mid
-$40,310
Margin change
-$806
Strikes
840C / -1410P / +1010P
Cash at natural
-$44,490
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$39,943 (+$3,691/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$29,867 (+$2,760/mo)
Restart odds
60% (keep 66%)
Value incl. income
+$439
Max loss from here
$91,600 (+$23,310)
CC-SS
$1602.28 (now $1589.53)
Net delta
+98 sh (now +102)
CSV ND after
823.10
Worst spread / min OI
6% / 8
Danger point
-22% (now -23%)
Order legs
SELL 1 Jan 21 '28 1200C (close)
BUY 1 Jan 21 '28 1380P (close)
SELL 1 Feb 19 '27 810P (close)
BUY 1 Dec 15 '28 840C (open)
SELL 1 Dec 15 '28 1410P (open)
BUY 1 Dec 15 '28 1010P (open)

LOWEST MAX LOSS

Smallest worst-case loss from here.
LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '28
Cash at mid
-$16,680
Margin change
-$740
Strikes
1080C / -1240P / +810P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$19,660
Hedge extension (est.)
-$5,865
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$40,297 (+$3,723/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$30,571 (+$2,825/mo)
Restart odds
60% (keep 66%)
Value incl. income
+$18,492
Max loss from here
$70,970 (+$2,680)
CC-SS
$1596.22 (now $1589.53)
Net delta
+99 sh (now +102)
CSV ND after
586.80
Worst spread / min OI
5% / 22
Danger point
-24% (now -23%)
Order legs
SELL 1 Jan 21 '28 1200C (close)
BUY 1 Jan 21 '28 1380P (close)
BUY 1 Dec 15 '28 1080C (open)
SELL 1 Dec 15 '28 1240P (open)

INCOME ENGINE

Most expected income to the new expiry, FIGHT included (model).
LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '28
Cash at mid
-$21,280
Margin change
+$5,517
Strikes
760C / -1410P / +810P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$24,260
Hedge extension (est.)
-$5,865
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$42,908 (+$3,965/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$35,044 (+$3,238/mo)
Restart odds
62% (keep 66%)
Value incl. income
+$10,246
Max loss from here
$92,570 (+$24,280)
CC-SS
$1558.65 (now $1589.53)
Net delta
+113 sh (now +102)
CSV ND after
632.80
Worst spread / min OI
3% / 45
Danger point
-21% (now -23%)
Order legs
SELL 1 Jan 21 '28 1200C (close)
BUY 1 Jan 21 '28 1380P (close)
BUY 1 Dec 15 '28 760C (open)
SELL 1 Dec 15 '28 1410P (open)

SAME STRIKES

The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).
LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '28
Cash at mid
-$3,680
Margin change
-$315
Strikes
1200C / -1380P / +810P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$6,660
Hedge extension (est.)
-$5,865
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$40,342 (+$3,728/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$30,661 (+$2,833/mo)
Restart odds
60% (keep 66%)
Value incl. income
+$31,112
Max loss from here
$71,970 (+$3,680)
CC-SS
$1595.44 (now $1589.53)
Net delta
+100 sh (now +102)
CSV ND after
456.80
Worst spread / min OI
3% / 27
Danger point
-24% (now -23%)
Order legs
SELL 1 Jan 21 '28 1200C (close)
BUY 1 Jan 21 '28 1380P (close)
BUY 1 Dec 15 '28 1200C (open)
SELL 1 Dec 15 '28 1380P (open)

Side by side

FamilyExpiryLCSPHPCash midHedge estMargin chgExtra incomeExtra safeRestartValue incl. incomeMax lossCC-SSDelta sh
KEEPheldJan 21 '2812001380810-----66%-$68,290$1589.53+102
BESTLEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812501440810 (kept)+$2,020-$5,865-$222+$40,360
+$3,729/mo
+$30,697
+$2,836/mo
60%+$36,737$72,270$1595.13+101
BEST WITH INCOMELEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812701440810 (kept)+$2,720-$5,865-$453+$40,262
+$3,720/mo
+$30,501
+$2,818/mo
60%+$37,570$71,570$1596.82+100
MOST CASHLEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812701440810 (kept)+$2,720-$5,865-$453+$40,262
+$3,720/mo
+$30,501
+$2,818/mo
60%+$37,570$71,570$1596.82+100
LEAST MARGINFULLDec 15 '2884014101010-$40,310--$806+$39,943
+$3,691/mo
+$29,867
+$2,760/mo
60%+$439$91,600$1602.28+98
LOWEST MAX LOSSLEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2810801240810 (kept)-$16,680-$5,865-$740+$40,297
+$3,723/mo
+$30,571
+$2,825/mo
60%+$18,492$70,970$1596.22+99
INCOME ENGINELEAPS ONLYDec 15 '287601410810 (kept)-$21,280-$5,865+$5,517+$42,908
+$3,965/mo
+$35,044
+$3,238/mo
62%+$10,246$92,570$1558.65+113
SAME STRIKESLEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812001380810 (kept)-$3,680-$5,865-$315+$40,342
+$3,728/mo
+$30,661
+$2,833/mo
60%+$31,112$71,970$1595.44+100

Cost of waiting

The BEST roll done later instead of today (+$2,020 at mid). Black-Scholes at each leg's IV, aged and moved, anchored on today's market. Estimates.
Roll onDays before expirySpot -30% ($895)Spot +0% ($1279)Spot +30% ($1662)
Today448-+$2,020-
2027-10-2390-$333+$2,507+$5,163
2027-12-0745-$1,304+$2,631+$6,692

How much time to buy

FamilyExpiryLCSPHPCash midHedge estMargin chgExtra incomeExtra safeRestartValue incl. incomeMax lossCC-SSDelta sh
Sep 15 '28LEAPS ONLYSep 15 '2812901440810 (kept)+$4,495-$4,565-$659+$27,899
+$3,564/mo
+$21,234
+$2,712/mo
61%+$28,488$69,795$1597.51+100
Dec 15 '28LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812701440810 (kept)+$2,720-$5,865-$453+$40,262
+$3,720/mo
+$30,501
+$2,818/mo
60%+$37,570$71,570$1596.82+100
Jan 19 '29LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '2912601440810 (kept)+$1,720-$8,586-$298+$44,429
+$3,711/mo
+$33,622
+$2,808/mo
60%+$37,861$72,570$1596.20+101
Top 25 candidates on Dec 15 '28
FamilyExpiryLCSPHPCash midHedge estMargin chgExtra incomeExtra safeRestartValue incl. incomeMax lossCC-SSDelta sh
1LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812701440810 (kept)+$2,720-$5,865-$453+$40,262
+$3,720/mo
+$30,501
+$2,818/mo
60%+$37,570$71,570$1596.82+100
2LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812601440810 (kept)+$2,320-$5,865-$329+$40,312
+$3,725/mo
+$30,602
+$2,828/mo
60%+$37,096$71,970$1595.95+101
3LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812501440810 (kept)+$2,020-$5,865-$222+$40,360
+$3,729/mo
+$30,697
+$2,836/mo
60%+$36,737$72,270$1595.13+101
4LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812601430810 (kept)+$1,620-$5,865-$433+$40,270
+$3,721/mo
+$30,518
+$2,820/mo
60%+$36,458$71,670$1596.68+100
5LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812401440810 (kept)+$1,620-$5,865-$98+$40,410
+$3,734/mo
+$30,797
+$2,846/mo
60%+$36,263$72,670$1594.27+101
6LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812501430810 (kept)+$1,320-$5,865-$326+$40,318
+$3,725/mo
+$30,614
+$2,829/mo
60%+$36,099$71,970$1595.86+101
7LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812301440810 (kept)+$1,320-$5,865+$9+$40,457
+$3,738/mo
+$30,891
+$2,854/mo
60%+$35,904$72,970$1593.46+101
8LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812401430810 (kept)+$920-$5,865-$202+$40,368
+$3,730/mo
+$30,714
+$2,838/mo
60%+$35,625$72,370$1594.99+101
9LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812501420810 (kept)+$620-$5,865-$428+$40,276
+$3,722/mo
+$30,530
+$2,821/mo
60%+$35,458$71,670$1596.58+100
10LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812201440810 (kept)+$920-$5,865+$132+$40,518
+$3,744/mo
+$30,996
+$2,864/mo
60%+$35,441$73,370$1592.60+102
11LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812301430810 (kept)+$620-$5,865-$95+$40,416
+$3,734/mo
+$30,809
+$2,847/mo
60%+$35,266$72,670$1594.17+101
12LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812401420810 (kept)+$220-$5,865-$303+$40,326
+$3,726/mo
+$30,630
+$2,830/mo
60%+$34,985$72,070$1595.71+101
13LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812101440810 (kept)+$520-$5,865+$256+$40,581
+$3,750/mo
+$31,101
+$2,874/mo
60%+$34,980$73,770$1591.76+102
14LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812201430810 (kept)+$220-$5,865+$28+$40,466
+$3,739/mo
+$30,908
+$2,856/mo
60%+$34,792$73,070$1593.31+101
15LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812301420810 (kept)-$80-$5,865-$197+$40,374
+$3,731/mo
+$30,726
+$2,839/mo
60%+$34,626$72,370$1594.89+101
16LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812401410810 (kept)-$480-$5,865-$405+$40,284
+$3,722/mo
+$30,546
+$2,822/mo
60%+$34,344$71,770$1596.44+100
17LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812001440810 (kept)+$220-$5,865+$362+$40,641
+$3,755/mo
+$31,201
+$2,883/mo
60%+$34,634$74,070$1590.95+102
18LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812101430810 (kept)-$180-$5,865+$152+$40,529
+$3,745/mo
+$31,013
+$2,866/mo
60%+$34,332$73,470$1592.46+102
19LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812201420810 (kept)-$480-$5,865-$73+$40,424
+$3,735/mo
+$30,825
+$2,848/mo
60%+$34,152$72,770$1594.03+101
20LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812301410810 (kept)-$780-$5,865-$298+$40,332
+$3,727/mo
+$30,642
+$2,831/mo
60%+$33,986$72,070$1595.61+101
21LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2811901440810 (kept)-$80-$5,865+$470+$40,701
+$3,761/mo
+$31,301
+$2,892/mo
60%+$34,287$74,370$1590.13+102
22LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812001430810 (kept)-$480-$5,865+$258+$40,589
+$3,750/mo
+$31,114
+$2,875/mo
60%+$33,986$73,770$1591.65+102
23LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812101420810 (kept)-$880-$5,865+$51+$40,476
+$3,740/mo
+$30,925
+$2,858/mo
60%+$33,681$73,170$1593.17+101
24LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812301400810 (kept)-$1,375-$5,865-$424+$40,286
+$3,722/mo
+$30,549
+$2,823/mo
60%+$33,469$71,665$1596.41+100
25LEAPS ONLYDec 15 '2812201410810 (kept)-$1,180-$5,865-$175+$40,382
+$3,731/mo
+$30,742
+$2,841/mo
60%+$33,512$72,470$1594.75+101
How this was built