+5 Mar 19 '27 150C-5 Mar 19 '27 195P+5 Mar 19 '27 135P140 days leftCSV ND 27.00entry $178 -21.2%CC-SS $188.36 (+34% vs spot)BE-SS $186.00 (+33% vs spot)
Spot
$140.25
CBOE 2026-10-30 00:04:29
When to roll✕ ROLL NOW
Roll now
The short put has almost no time value left ($0 a share): early assignment can come any day, and it would break the structure.
Holding as is costs about $38 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
Is the time worth buying✓ EXTEND
It fights for its income: the extra time pays for the roll
Since 2026-06-18 it has banked $8,905, $1,827/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $1,602/mo against a $725/mo floor and a $1,450/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $188 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $172 (+23% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $1,419/mo at SPCX's realized keep of 84% (17 closed calls).
The record shows it fights: $1,827/mo earned against a modelled $1,419/mo, so FIGHT income counts toward the time.
Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 22 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $6,695 if you keep, $39,922 after the roll; safe calls alone: $1,791 vs $16,591. Odds safe calls restart: 31% vs 49%.
At the record's pace the extra 22 months are worth about $40,383.
Today, if you keep it
Value now (mid)
-$12,600
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$26,100
Max loss from here
$17,400
Margin it holds (model)
$11,466
a close frees it; $11,466 on all SPCX here
CC-SS
$188.36
safe call from $172
Net delta
+495 sh
notional $70,125
Theta
-$38/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$0.00
assignment HIGH
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$18,205
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$26,100
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$8,905
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
-$13,610
legs at mid + call buyback -$1,010
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$16,248
expected; -$18,205 if closed today
Chance of break-even
18%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$17,400
60% of the $43,500 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$35,605
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Mar 19 '27 (FIGHT included). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $11,466 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding trails closing by $9,509.
Recommended roll
BEST: cash + margin · also BEST WITH INCOME, MOST CASH
-$9,788
cash at mid today (natural -$12,200)
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29+22 months
SELL 5 Mar 19 '27 150C (close)
BUY 5 Mar 19 '27 195P (close)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 130C (open)
SELL 5 Jan 19 '29 200P (open)
Margin change
+$51
freed is good; IBKR: IBKR's margin engine answers only in US market hours (21:30-04:00 SGT)
Hedge extension (est.)
-$9,262
kept hedge carried to the new expiry
Income over the time bought
$40,383
actual: $1,827 a month x 22 months; covers 329% of the max loss it adds
Restart odds
31% → 49%
safe calls paying before expiry
Max loss from here
$29,688
+$12,288 vs keep
CC-SS
$194.19
now $188.36
CSV ND after
46.58
at a mid fill
If you're assigned
Odds of early assignment within 12 months: 100% (exercised now).
Close everything now: -$12,600. Wait for assignment: -$13,088 (the put spread -$21,188, plus the 150C you keep, worth $8,100). About the same, and waiting keeps the call income.
On assignment: sell the shares and sell the hedge put (never exercise it): $21,188 more ($42 a share). Basis 69.38; the 150C alone has CC-SS $213.76 (now $188.36), break-even $219, margin about zero.
Calls afterwards (Dec 04 '26, 35d): a 150C (at or above the call) about $3,212 a cycle; a 160C (~0.30 delta) about $1,662 a cycle, but a rally can cost up to $0 a cycle. The 150C loses about $891 a month to time.
Ride the 150C: safe calls out-earn its decay.
Income outlook
Income history · since 2026-06-18
Banked since entry
$8,905
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$1,827/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$1,602/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$2,055
Aug 2026
Jun
Jul
$2,055
Aug
Sep
Oct
$1,035
open
life pace $1,827/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$1,602/mo
EARNING ITS KEEP
floor $725
design $1,450
$1,602/mo earned, at least half of the $1,450/mo it is designed to earn
Scanner's best pick today
$249/mo
Banked so far
$8,905
Whole-life P/L
-$18,210
Time with a call written
56%
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
49%
CBOE 30-day 49%
Regime
no data
Next earnings
2027-02-09
103 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$1,419/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 84% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $172
spot $140
Spot needs +23% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Mar 19 '27
$6,695
Roll Jan 19 '29
$39,922
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Mar 19 '27
31%
Roll Jan 19 '29
49%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Mar 19 '27
$1,791
Roll Jan 19 '29
$16,591
Months bought
22
Worth at the record's pace
$40,383
Engine state
FIGHTING
Roll choices on Jan 19 '29
Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.
BEST: cash + margin
Most cash received net of margin added (the 2026-10-22 rule): the recommended roll.
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29also BEST WITH INCOMEalso MOST CASH
Cash at mid
-$9,788
Margin change
+$51
Strikes
130C / -200P / +135P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$12,200
Hedge extension (est.)
-$9,262
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$33,227 (+$1,503/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$14,800 (+$670/mo)
Restart odds
49% (keep 31%)
Value incl. income
+$14,127
Max loss from here
$29,688 (+$12,288)
CC-SS
$194.19 (now $188.36)
Net delta
+470 sh (now +495)
CSV ND after
46.58
Worst spread / min OI
5% / 486
Danger point
-22% (now -23%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Mar 19 '27 150C (close)
BUY 5 Mar 19 '27 195P (close)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 130C (open)
SELL 5 Jan 19 '29 200P (open)
LEAST MARGIN
Largest drop (or smallest rise) in maintenance margin.
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29also LOWEST MAX LOSS
Cash at mid
-$11,313
Margin change
-$346
Strikes
130C / -195P / +135P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$13,425
Hedge extension (est.)
-$9,262
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$33,216 (+$1,503/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$14,679 (+$664/mo)
Restart odds
49% (keep 31%)
Value incl. income
+$12,987
Max loss from here
$28,712 (+$11,313)
CC-SS
$194.96 (now $188.36)
Net delta
+461 sh (now +495)
CSV ND after
49.63
Worst spread / min OI
4% / 571
Danger point
-22% (now -23%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Mar 19 '27 150C (close)
BUY 5 Mar 19 '27 195P (close)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 130C (open)
SELL 5 Jan 19 '29 195P (open)
INCOME ENGINE
Most expected income to the new expiry, FIGHT included (model).
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$26,313
Margin change
+$3,214
Strikes
70C / -200P / +135P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$30,125
Hedge extension (est.)
-$9,262
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$33,283 (+$1,506/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$16,184 (+$732/mo)
Restart odds
53% (keep 31%)
Value incl. income
-$5,506
Max loss from here
$46,212 (+$28,813)
CC-SS
$187.27 (now $188.36)
Net delta
+556 sh (now +495)
CSV ND after
79.62
Worst spread / min OI
9% / 466
Danger point
-21% (now -23%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Mar 19 '27 150C (close)
BUY 5 Mar 19 '27 195P (close)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 70C (open)
SELL 5 Jan 19 '29 200P (open)
SAME STRIKES
The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).
FULLJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$16,638
Margin change
+$553
Strikes
150C / -195P / +135P
Cash at natural
-$19,100
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$33,166 (+$1,500/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$14,080 (+$637/mo)
Restart odds
46% (keep 31%)
Value incl. income
+$15,976
Max loss from here
$34,038 (+$16,638)
CC-SS
$199.04 (now $188.36)
Net delta
+454 sh (now +495)
CSV ND after
60.28
Worst spread / min OI
6% / 571
Danger point
-21% (now -23%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Mar 19 '27 150C (close)
BUY 5 Mar 19 '27 195P (close)
SELL 5 Mar 19 '27 135P (close)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 150C (open)
SELL 5 Jan 19 '29 195P (open)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 135P (open)
Side by side
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
KEEP
held
Mar 19 '27
150
195
135
-
-
-
-
-
31%
-
$17,400
$188.36
+495
BEST
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
130
200
135 (kept)
-$9,788
-$9,262
+$51
+$33,227 +$1,503/mo
+$14,800 +$670/mo
49%
+$14,127
$29,688
$194.19
+470
BEST WITH INCOME
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
130
200
135 (kept)
-$9,788
-$9,262
+$51
+$33,227 +$1,503/mo
+$14,800 +$670/mo
49%
+$14,127
$29,688
$194.19
+470
MOST CASH
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
130
200
135 (kept)
-$9,788
-$9,262
+$51
+$33,227 +$1,503/mo
+$14,800 +$670/mo
49%
+$14,127
$29,688
$194.19
+470
LEAST MARGIN
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
130
195
135 (kept)
-$11,313
-$9,262
-$346
+$33,216 +$1,503/mo
+$14,679 +$664/mo
49%
+$12,987
$28,712
$194.96
+461
LOWEST MAX LOSS
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
130
195
135 (kept)
-$11,313
-$9,262
-$346
+$33,216 +$1,503/mo
+$14,679 +$664/mo
49%
+$12,987
$28,712
$194.96
+461
INCOME ENGINE
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
70
200
135 (kept)
-$26,313
-$9,262
+$3,214
+$33,283 +$1,506/mo
+$16,184 +$732/mo
53%
-$5,506
$46,212
$187.27
+556
SAME STRIKES
FULL
Jan 19 '29
150
195
135
-$16,638
-
+$553
+$33,166 +$1,500/mo
+$14,080 +$637/mo
46%
+$15,976
$34,038
$199.04
+454
Cost of waiting
The BEST roll done later instead of today (-$9,788 at mid). Black-Scholes at each leg's IV, aged and moved, anchored on today's market. Estimates.
Roll on
Days before expiry
Spot -30% ($98)
Spot +0% ($140)
Spot +30% ($182)
Today
140
-
-$9,788
-
2026-12-19
90
-$9,749
-$10,648
-$6,925
2027-02-02
45
-$9,930
-$12,072
-$6,207
How much time to buy
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
Jun 16 '28
LEAPS ONLY
Jun 16 '28
125
185
135 (kept)
-$14,850
-$7,288
-$86
+$22,644 +$1,513/mo
+$9,627 +$643/mo
48%
+$593
$27,250
$193.69
+464
Dec 15 '28
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
130
200
135 (kept)
-$9,575
-$9,012
+$111
+$31,461 +$1,501/mo
+$13,943 +$665/mo
49%
+$12,763
$29,475
$193.95
+471
Jan 19 '29
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
130
200
135 (kept)
-$9,788
-$9,262
+$51
+$33,227 +$1,503/mo
+$14,800 +$670/mo
49%
+$14,127
$29,688
$194.19
+470
Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
1
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
130
200
135 (kept)
-$9,788
-$9,262
+$51
+$33,227 +$1,503/mo
+$14,800 +$670/mo
49%
+$14,127
$29,688
$194.19
+470
2
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
130
195
135 (kept)
-$11,313
-$9,262
-$346
+$33,216 +$1,503/mo
+$14,679 +$664/mo
49%
+$12,987
$28,712
$194.96
+461
3
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
125
200
135 (kept)
-$11,063
-$9,262
+$337
+$33,237 +$1,504/mo
+$14,909 +$674/mo
49%
+$12,576
$30,962
$193.50
+478
4
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
125
195
135 (kept)
-$12,588
-$9,262
-$60
+$33,226 +$1,503/mo
+$14,791 +$669/mo
49%
+$11,437
$29,988
$194.25
+468
5
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
120
200
135 (kept)
-$12,100
-$9,262
+$602
+$33,244 +$1,504/mo
+$15,031 +$680/mo
50%
+$11,280
$32,000
$192.81
+485
6
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
120
195
135 (kept)
-$13,625
-$9,262
+$205
+$33,237 +$1,504/mo
+$14,904 +$674/mo
49%
+$10,145
$31,025
$193.54
+476
7
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
125
190
135 (kept)
-$14,588
-$9,262
-$282
+$33,218 +$1,503/mo
+$14,700 +$665/mo
49%
+$9,650
$29,487
$194.82
+459
8
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
120
190
135 (kept)
-$15,625
-$9,262
-$17
+$33,229 +$1,503/mo
+$14,815 +$670/mo
49%
+$8,358
$30,525
$194.10
+467
9
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
110
200
135 (kept)
-$14,913
-$9,262
+$1,161
+$33,249 +$1,504/mo
+$15,266 +$691/mo
50%
+$7,912
$34,812
$191.57
+501
10
FULL
Jan 19 '29
110
195
120
-$22,025
-
+$3,696
+$33,251 +$1,504/mo
+$15,461 +$699/mo
51%
+$7,530
$46,925
$190.54
+544
11
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
120
185
135 (kept)
-$17,413
-$9,262
-$292
+$33,219 +$1,503/mo
+$14,712 +$666/mo
49%
+$6,836
$29,812
$194.75
+458
12
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
105
200
135 (kept)
-$15,738
-$9,262
+$1,422
+$33,251 +$1,504/mo
+$15,400 +$697/mo
51%
+$6,828
$35,638
$190.86
+509
13
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
110
195
135 (kept)
-$16,438
-$9,262
+$764
+$33,246 +$1,504/mo
+$15,132 +$685/mo
50%
+$6,782
$33,838
$192.28
+492
14
FULL
Jan 19 '29
105
200
125
-$22,575
-
+$4,038
+$33,252 +$1,504/mo
+$15,610 +$706/mo
51%
+$6,639
$47,475
$189.75
+552
15
FULL
Jan 19 '29
105
195
120
-$22,850
-
+$3,957
+$33,252 +$1,504/mo
+$15,601 +$706/mo
51%
+$6,446
$47,750
$189.79
+552
16
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
105
195
135 (kept)
-$17,263
-$9,262
+$1,025
+$33,249 +$1,504/mo
+$15,270 +$691/mo
50%
+$5,699
$34,662
$191.55
+500
17
FULL
Jan 19 '29
105
195
125
-$24,100
-
+$3,641
+$33,251 +$1,504/mo
+$15,475 +$700/mo
51%
+$5,510
$46,500
$190.47
+543
18
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
110
190
135 (kept)
-$18,438
-$9,262
+$543
+$33,244 +$1,504/mo
+$15,029 +$680/mo
50%
+$5,001
$33,338
$192.81
+483
19
FULL
Jan 19 '29
105
190
120
-$24,850
-
+$3,735
+$33,252 +$1,504/mo
+$15,501 +$701/mo
51%
+$4,666
$47,250
$190.33
+543
20
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
105
190
135 (kept)
-$19,262
-$9,262
+$804
+$33,247 +$1,504/mo
+$15,171 +$686/mo
50%
+$3,918
$34,162
$192.07
+490
21
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
110
185
135 (kept)
-$20,225
-$9,262
+$268
+$33,238 +$1,504/mo
+$14,920 +$675/mo
49%
+$3,483
$32,625
$193.44
+474
22
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
95
200
135 (kept)
-$18,588
-$9,262
+$1,961
+$33,252 +$1,504/mo
+$15,614 +$706/mo
51%
+$3,441
$38,488
$189.73
+524
23
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
105
185
135 (kept)
-$21,050
-$9,262
+$529
+$33,245 +$1,504/mo
+$15,054 +$681/mo
50%
+$2,403
$33,450
$192.68
+481
24
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
95
195
135 (kept)
-$20,113
-$9,262
+$1,564
+$33,252 +$1,504/mo
+$15,489 +$701/mo
51%
+$2,312
$37,512
$190.39
+514
25
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
110
180
135 (kept)
-$21,888
-$9,262
-$31
+$33,228 +$1,503/mo
+$14,813 +$670/mo
49%
+$2,110
$31,788
$194.11
+464
How this was built
214 rolls on the real strikes of Jun 16 '28, Dec 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 161 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($186.00), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.27), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (49%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 03:50. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.