+5 Mar 19 '27 150C-5 Mar 19 '27 195P+5 Mar 19 '27 135P140 days leftCSV ND 27.00entry $178 -22.8%CC-SS $193.13 (+41% vs spot)BE-SS $186.00 (+35% vs spot)
Spot
$137.40
CBOE 2026-10-30 13:51:12
When to roll⏸ WAIT
Wait until 19 Dec 2026
140 days left. Nothing forces a roll before 19 Dec 2026 (90 days before expiry): waiting keeps today's structure and costs nothing extra in spread.
Short put deep in the money with $3 of time value (38% of a year's carry on the strike): assignment risk is real; check it weekly.
Holding as is costs about $37 a day in time decay (net theta of the three legs).
Re-run then, or sooner after a 15%+ drop (a lower price makes extending cheaper and more urgent).
Is the time worth buying✓ EXTEND
It fights for its income: the extra time pays for the roll
Since 2026-06-18 it has banked $8,905, $1,827/mo with the open call chain marked to today's buyback; the last 90 days $1,602/mo against a $725/mo floor and a $1,450/mo design.
Safe calls (at or above the $193 CC-SS) only pay a normal premium from about $176 (+28% from here).
FIGHT engine (~0.30-delta calls below the CC-SS, where an assignment locks a loss): about $1,444/mo at SPCX's realized keep of 84% (17 closed calls).
The record shows it fights: $1,827/mo earned against a modelled $1,444/mo, so FIGHT income counts toward the time.
Extending to Jan 19 '29 buys 22 months. Expected income to expiry with FIGHT: $6,789 if you keep, $40,619 after the roll; safe calls alone: $1,505 vs $16,304. Odds safe calls restart: 24% vs 45%.
At the record's pace the extra 22 months are worth about $40,383.
Today, if you keep it
Value now (mid)
-$16,175
Unrealized vs CSV ND
-$29,675
Max loss from here
$13,825
Margin it holds (IBKR)
$12,735
a close frees it; model $10,846; $10,846 on all SPCX here
CC-SS
$193.13
safe call from $176
Net delta
+457 sh
notional $68,700
Theta
-$37/day
net of the three legs
Short put time value
$2.98
assignment WATCH
If you close it today
Whole-life P/L
-$21,175
legs + call income, all in
Legs vs entry
-$29,675
close LC / SP / HP at mid vs CSV ND
Call income banked
+$8,905
since entry, incl. the open chain
Cash to close today
-$16,580
legs at mid + call buyback -$405
If you hold to expiry instead
Whole-life P/L at expiry
-$16,381
expected; -$21,175 if closed today
Chance of break-even
17%
whole-life P/L at or above zero
Max loss left
$13,825
68% of the $43,500 at entry already taken
Worst case if held
-$35,000
legs at their worst, no call income
No roll and no close: calls written every cycle to Mar 19 '27 (FIGHT included). Spot at expiry is spread lognormal at realized vol, zero drift. Holding keeps $10,846 of margin a close would free, counted dollar for dollar: holding trails closing by $6,052.
Recommended roll
BEST: cash + margin · also BEST WITH INCOME
-$10,263
cash at mid today (natural -$12,375)
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29+22 months
SELL 5 Mar 19 '27 150C (close)
BUY 5 Mar 19 '27 195P (close)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 130C (open)
SELL 5 Jan 19 '29 200P (open)
Margin change (IBKR)
+$1,015
asked at 21:53; model +$865, this underlying only
Hedge extension (est.)
-$9,175
kept hedge carried to the new expiry
Income over the time bought
$40,383
actual: $1,827 a month x 22 months; covers 316% of the max loss it adds
Restart odds
24% → 45%
safe calls paying before expiry
Max loss from here
$26,588
+$12,763 vs keep
CC-SS
$198.80
now $193.13
CSV ND after
47.53
at a mid fill
If you're assigned
Odds of early assignment within 12 months: 89% The holder exercises once the stock is at or below $195 in 6 months..
Close everything now: -$16,175. Wait for assignment: -$14,687 (the put spread -$21,287, plus the 150C you keep, worth $6,600). About the same, and waiting keeps the call income.
On assignment: sell the shares and sell the hedge put (never exercise it): $21,287 more ($43 a share). Basis 69.57; the 150C alone has CC-SS $215.87 (now $193.13), break-even $220, margin about zero.
Calls afterwards (Dec 04 '26, 35d): a 150C (at or above the call) about $2,150 a cycle; a 150C (~0.30 delta) about $2,150 a cycle, but a rally can cost up to $0 a cycle. The 150C loses about $921 a month to time.
Ride the 150C: safe calls out-earn its decay.
Income outlook
Income history · since 2026-06-18
Banked since entry
$8,905
closed calls + open chain premium
Life-to-date pace
$1,827/mo
open chain marked to today's buyback
Last 90 days
$1,602/mo
Coverage Insights' window
Best month
$2,055
Aug 2026
Jun
Jul
$2,055
Aug
Sep
Oct
$1,035
open
life pace $1,827/mo
Closed call net per calendar month (first and last months are part months). The hatched bar is the open roll chain: premium collected but not yet closed. Hover a bar for detail.
Last 90 days vs design
$1,602/mo
EARNING ITS KEEP
floor $725
design $1,450
$1,602/mo earned, at least half of the $1,450/mo it is designed to earn
Scanner's best pick today
$249/mo
Banked so far
$8,905
Whole-life P/L
-$18,210
Time with a call written
56%
Source: Coverage Insights 2026-10-30
Market now
Call IV (~35d)
51%
CBOE 30-day 51%
Regime
no data
Next earnings
2027-02-09
102 days
FIGHT rate (model)
$1,444/mo
~0.30-delta calls x 84% keep
Where safe calls start paying
safe from $176
spot $137
Spot needs +28% before a safe call pays a normal premium.
What the time buys
Expected income to expiry, FIGHT included (model)
Keep Mar 19 '27
$6,789
Roll Jan 19 '29
$40,619
Odds safe calls start paying before expiry
Keep Mar 19 '27
24%
Roll Jan 19 '29
45%
Safe calls alone (never below the CC-SS)
Keep Mar 19 '27
$1,505
Roll Jan 19 '29
$16,304
Months bought
22
Worth at the record's pace
$40,383
Engine state
FIGHTING
Roll choices on Jan 19 '29
Cash received is green, paid is red. Margin freed is green, added is red. Extra income is the model's expected income the extra time adds, FIGHT calls included at the realized keep; extra safe income counts calls at or above the CC-SS only.
BEST: cash + margin
Most cash received net of margin added (the 2026-10-22 rule): the recommended roll.
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29also BEST WITH INCOME
Cash at mid
-$10,263
Margin change
+$865
Strikes
130C / -200P / +135P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$12,375
Hedge extension (est.)
-$9,175
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$33,829 (+$1,530/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$14,799 (+$669/mo)
Restart odds
45% (keep 24%)
Value incl. income
+$13,527
Max loss from here
$26,588 (+$12,763)
CC-SS
$198.80 (now $193.13)
Net delta
+449 sh (now +457)
CSV ND after
47.53
Worst spread / min OI
4% / 488
Order legs
SELL 5 Mar 19 '27 150C (close)
BUY 5 Mar 19 '27 195P (close)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 130C (open)
SELL 5 Jan 19 '29 200P (open)
MOST CASH
Largest credit (or smallest debit) at mid, net of any hedge extension.
FULLJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$17,200
Margin change
+$4,998
Strikes
120C / -195P / +110P
Cash at natural
-$19,900
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$33,893 (+$1,533/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$15,387 (+$696/mo)
Restart odds
47% (keep 24%)
Value incl. income
+$11,695
Max loss from here
$43,525 (+$29,700)
CC-SS
$194.53 (now $193.13)
Net delta
+545 sh (now +457)
CSV ND after
61.40
Worst spread / min OI
5% / 469
Danger point
-21% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Mar 19 '27 150C (close)
BUY 5 Mar 19 '27 195P (close)
SELL 5 Mar 19 '27 135P (close)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 120C (open)
SELL 5 Jan 19 '29 195P (open)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 110P (open)
LEAST MARGIN
Largest drop (or smallest rise) in maintenance margin.
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$14,925
Margin change
+$525
Strikes
125C / -190P / +135P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$17,200
Hedge extension (est.)
-$9,175
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$33,823 (+$1,530/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$14,722 (+$666/mo)
Restart odds
45% (keep 24%)
Value incl. income
+$9,198
Max loss from here
$26,250 (+$12,425)
CC-SS
$199.42 (now $193.13)
Net delta
+439 sh (now +457)
CSV ND after
56.85
Worst spread / min OI
5% / 115
Danger point
-25% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Mar 19 '27 150C (close)
BUY 5 Mar 19 '27 195P (close)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 125C (open)
SELL 5 Jan 19 '29 190P (open)
LOWEST MAX LOSS
Smallest worst-case loss from here.
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$12,100
Margin change
+$543
Strikes
130C / -195P / +135P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$14,250
Hedge extension (est.)
-$9,175
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$33,822 (+$1,530/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$14,708 (+$665/mo)
Restart odds
45% (keep 24%)
Value incl. income
+$12,004
Max loss from here
$25,925 (+$12,100)
CC-SS
$199.54 (now $193.13)
Net delta
+440 sh (now +457)
CSV ND after
51.20
Worst spread / min OI
4% / 571
Danger point
-25% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Mar 19 '27 150C (close)
BUY 5 Mar 19 '27 195P (close)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 130C (open)
SELL 5 Jan 19 '29 195P (open)
INCOME ENGINE
Most expected income to the new expiry, FIGHT included (model).
LEAPS ONLYJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$26,125
Margin change
+$4,229
Strikes
70C / -200P / +135P (kept)
Cash at natural
-$29,000
Hedge extension (est.)
-$9,175
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$33,923 (+$1,535/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$15,950 (+$722/mo)
Restart odds
49% (keep 24%)
Value incl. income
-$5,605
Max loss from here
$42,450 (+$28,625)
CC-SS
$190.97 (now $193.13)
Net delta
+541 sh (now +457)
CSV ND after
79.25
Worst spread / min OI
6% / 466
Danger point
-21% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Mar 19 '27 150C (close)
BUY 5 Mar 19 '27 195P (close)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 70C (open)
SELL 5 Jan 19 '29 200P (open)
SAME STRIKES
The held strikes rolled straight out (reference).
FULLJan 19 '29
Cash at mid
-$17,500
Margin change
+$1,705
Strikes
150C / -195P / +135P
Cash at natural
-$20,075
Extra income, FIGHT incl. (model)
+$33,780 (+$1,528/mo)
Extra safe income (model)
+$14,201 (+$642/mo)
Restart odds
43% (keep 24%)
Value incl. income
+$14,574
Max loss from here
$31,325 (+$17,500)
CC-SS
$204.10 (now $193.13)
Net delta
+448 sh (now +457)
CSV ND after
62.00
Worst spread / min OI
4% / 571
Danger point
-23% (now none to -60%)
Order legs
SELL 5 Mar 19 '27 150C (close)
BUY 5 Mar 19 '27 195P (close)
SELL 5 Mar 19 '27 135P (close)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 150C (open)
SELL 5 Jan 19 '29 195P (open)
BUY 5 Jan 19 '29 135P (open)
Side by side
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
KEEP
held
Mar 19 '27
150
195
135
-
-
-
-
-
24%
-
$13,825
$193.13
+457
BEST
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
130
200
135 (kept)
-$10,263
-$9,175
+$865
+$33,829 +$1,530/mo
+$14,799 +$669/mo
45%
+$13,527
$26,588
$198.80
+449
BEST WITH INCOME
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
130
200
135 (kept)
-$10,263
-$9,175
+$865
+$33,829 +$1,530/mo
+$14,799 +$669/mo
45%
+$13,527
$26,588
$198.80
+449
MOST CASH
FULL
Jan 19 '29
120
195
110
-$17,200
-
+$4,998
+$33,893 +$1,533/mo
+$15,387 +$696/mo
47%
+$11,695
$43,525
$194.53
+545
LEAST MARGIN
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
125
190
135 (kept)
-$14,925
-$9,175
+$525
+$33,823 +$1,530/mo
+$14,722 +$666/mo
45%
+$9,198
$26,250
$199.42
+439
LOWEST MAX LOSS
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
130
195
135 (kept)
-$12,100
-$9,175
+$543
+$33,822 +$1,530/mo
+$14,708 +$665/mo
45%
+$12,004
$25,925
$199.54
+440
INCOME ENGINE
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
70
200
135 (kept)
-$26,125
-$9,175
+$4,229
+$33,923 +$1,535/mo
+$15,950 +$722/mo
49%
-$5,605
$42,450
$190.97
+541
SAME STRIKES
FULL
Jan 19 '29
150
195
135
-$17,500
-
+$1,705
+$33,780 +$1,528/mo
+$14,201 +$642/mo
43%
+$14,574
$31,325
$204.10
+448
Cost of waiting
The BEST roll done later instead of today (-$10,263 at mid). Black-Scholes at each leg's IV, aged and moved, anchored on today's market. Estimates.
Roll on
Days before expiry
Spot -30% ($96)
Spot +0% ($137)
Spot +30% ($179)
Today
140
-
-$10,263
-
2026-12-19
90
-$9,409
-$10,873
-$7,961
2027-02-02
45
-$9,538
-$12,029
-$7,122
How much time to buy
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
Jun 16 '28
FULL
Jun 16 '28
120
185
110
-$17,662
-
+$4,852
+$23,105 +$1,544/mo
+$10,103 +$675/mo
46%
+$591
$38,988
$193.77
+540
Dec 15 '28
LEAPS ONLY
Dec 15 '28
130
200
135 (kept)
-$9,950
-$8,862
+$926
+$32,027 +$1,528/mo
+$13,929 +$665/mo
45%
+$12,289
$26,275
$198.50
+450
Jan 19 '29
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
130
200
135 (kept)
-$10,263
-$9,175
+$865
+$33,829 +$1,530/mo
+$14,799 +$669/mo
45%
+$13,527
$26,588
$198.80
+449
Top 25 candidates on Jan 19 '29
Family
Expiry
LC
SP
HP
Cash mid
Hedge est
Margin chg
Extra income
Extra safe
Restart
Value incl. income
Max loss
CC-SS
Delta sh
1
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
130
200
135 (kept)
-$10,263
-$9,175
+$865
+$33,829 +$1,530/mo
+$14,799 +$669/mo
45%
+$13,527
$26,588
$198.80
+449
2
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
125
200
135 (kept)
-$11,200
-$9,175
+$1,142
+$33,837 +$1,531/mo
+$14,899 +$674/mo
46%
+$12,320
$27,525
$197.99
+457
3
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
130
195
135 (kept)
-$12,100
-$9,175
+$543
+$33,822 +$1,530/mo
+$14,708 +$665/mo
45%
+$12,004
$25,925
$199.54
+440
4
FULL
Jan 19 '29
120
195
110
-$17,200
-
+$4,998
+$33,893 +$1,533/mo
+$15,387 +$696/mo
47%
+$11,695
$43,525
$194.53
+545
5
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
120
200
135 (kept)
-$12,413
-$9,175
+$1,440
+$33,843 +$1,531/mo
+$14,991 +$678/mo
46%
+$10,815
$28,738
$197.24
+465
6
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
125
195
135 (kept)
-$13,037
-$9,175
+$820
+$33,830 +$1,530/mo
+$14,810 +$670/mo
45%
+$10,798
$26,862
$198.72
+448
7
FULL
Jan 19 '29
110
200
110
-$17,488
-
+$5,892
+$33,922 +$1,535/mo
+$15,726 +$711/mo
49%
+$10,542
$46,313
$192.32
+571
8
FULL
Jan 19 '29
110
200
115
-$18,675
-
+$5,658
+$33,920 +$1,534/mo
+$15,607 +$706/mo
48%
+$9,587
$45,000
$193.02
+561
9
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
120
195
135 (kept)
-$14,250
-$9,175
+$1,119
+$33,837 +$1,531/mo
+$14,905 +$674/mo
46%
+$9,293
$28,075
$197.94
+456
10
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
125
190
135 (kept)
-$14,925
-$9,175
+$525
+$33,823 +$1,530/mo
+$14,722 +$666/mo
45%
+$9,198
$26,250
$199.42
+439
11
FULL
Jan 19 '29
105
200
110
-$18,488
-
+$6,182
+$33,923 +$1,535/mo
+$15,853 +$717/mo
49%
+$9,254
$47,313
$191.55
+579
12
FULL
Jan 19 '29
110
195
110
-$19,325
-
+$5,570
+$33,920 +$1,534/mo
+$15,614 +$706/mo
48%
+$9,024
$45,650
$192.98
+562
13
FULL
Jan 19 '29
110
200
120
-$19,850
-
+$5,319
+$33,908 +$1,534/mo
+$15,501 +$701/mo
48%
+$8,739
$43,675
$193.74
+552
14
FULL
Jan 19 '29
105
200
115
-$19,675
-
+$5,948
+$33,922 +$1,535/mo
+$15,738 +$712/mo
49%
+$8,299
$46,000
$192.24
+570
15
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
110
200
135 (kept)
-$14,538
-$9,175
+$2,013
+$33,870 +$1,532/mo
+$15,210 +$688/mo
47%
+$8,145
$30,863
$195.72
+482
16
FULL
Jan 19 '29
110
195
115
-$20,512
-
+$5,337
+$33,908 +$1,534/mo
+$15,507 +$702/mo
48%
+$8,059
$44,338
$193.71
+552
17
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
120
190
135 (kept)
-$16,138
-$9,175
+$824
+$33,831 +$1,530/mo
+$14,819 +$670/mo
45%
+$7,695
$27,462
$198.64
+447
18
FULL
Jan 19 '29
105
195
110
-$20,325
-
+$5,860
+$33,922 +$1,535/mo
+$15,745 +$712/mo
49%
+$7,737
$46,650
$192.20
+570
19
FULL
Jan 19 '29
105
200
120
-$20,850
-
+$5,609
+$33,920 +$1,534/mo
+$15,620 +$707/mo
48%
+$7,461
$44,675
$192.95
+560
20
FULL
Jan 19 '29
110
190
110
-$21,212
-
+$5,275
+$33,909 +$1,534/mo
+$15,517 +$702/mo
48%
+$7,422
$45,038
$193.64
+552
21
FULL
Jan 19 '29
110
195
120
-$21,688
-
+$4,997
+$33,895 +$1,533/mo
+$15,399 +$697/mo
48%
+$7,210
$43,012
$194.44
+543
22
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
105
200
135 (kept)
-$15,538
-$9,175
+$2,303
+$33,885 +$1,533/mo
+$15,324 +$693/mo
47%
+$6,870
$31,863
$194.95
+490
23
FULL
Jan 19 '29
105
195
115
-$21,512
-
+$5,627
+$33,920 +$1,534/mo
+$15,626 +$707/mo
48%
+$6,781
$45,338
$192.91
+560
24
FULL
Jan 19 '29
105
200
125
-$21,975
-
+$5,257
+$33,909 +$1,534/mo
+$15,513 +$702/mo
48%
+$6,677
$43,300
$193.66
+550
25
LEAPS ONLY
Jan 19 '29
110
195
135 (kept)
-$16,375
-$9,175
+$1,691
+$33,856 +$1,532/mo
+$15,109 +$684/mo
47%
+$6,615
$30,200
$196.40
+473
How this was built
365 rolls on the real strikes of Jun 16 '28, Dec 15 '28, Jan 19 '29; 295 pass the rules: the new short put keeps real time value, the break-even at expiry stays within 3% of today's ($186.00), max loss within 10% over the entry max loss, CC-SS within 5% (no rule in Fight mode), margin added under 15% of the account's spare room. Early assignment is judged as the put's holder would: an American put priced at its market mid, exercised where that beats holding; at most 50% odds within 12 months.
FULL rolls all three legs (a held hedge). LEAPS ONLY keeps today's hedge for Repair's ledger, charged the estimated cost of carrying it to the new expiry. The short call never rolls.
Margin: the What-if model (IBKR-calibrated scan, calib 1.34), this underlying only. IBKR's what-if on the ticket is the final word.
Income model: one 35-day call per cycle while the LEAPS cover it; spot lognormal at realized vol = call IV x (1 - 0.15); premium Black-Scholes at the call IV (51%). SAFE writes at max(CC-SS, the ~0.30-delta strike); CC-SS held at today's value (no credit for banked income, so conservative). Track record mirrored from Coverage Insights.
Positions + margin model from Repair 2026-10-30 21:34. The open covered call is untouched. Read-only: no order is placed or staged. leaps_extend v1.2.