touch odds run HOT on this name: strikes were actually touched 55% of the time vs 37% claimed (+17.5pp). Expect to face the roll more often than the card implies, so leave room.
CHALLENGE PROFITABLE — META 3× 665.0C 20 Nov 2026+0.5%Main:1299LIVE
at cap $22,435 · roll at trip
SPOT
$616
SURV
69%
TOUCH
T:66%
P/L @ CAP
$22,435
HOLD FLAT
$1,517
DTE
77
▸ no priced roll published: rebuild prices proactive roll pools for WAIT (MARGINAL) / ROLL CC (PENDING) routees and for SKIP/WAIT rows in the near-strike outlook band; this row routed WAIT (MARGINAL), outside the pool's decision scope
WATCH — SNDK 1× 1800.0C 02 Oct 2026▲ UP +10.9%Neville:0865LIVE
pressing the strike: 5.2% (1.3x a typical daily move) below $1800, inside the 5.0% session band; rolling into strength pays; alert at breakeven $1,882.78
SPOT
$1,711
SURV
64%
MARK
$107.67
tv $107.67
DTE
28
▸ roll-door pricing (CREDIT / BUY_TIME / SAFETY buckets) is not yet in the machine seam; check fight's own dashboard for priced doors before approving a specific roll
only 13 matured predictions so far: thin sample, context not a verdict.
touch odds run COOL on this name: touched 8% vs 39% claimed (-31.2pp), so the challenge odds on this card are conservative here.
survival came in BETTER than claimed (100% vs 74%, +25.9pp): the model is conservative on this name.
fortress_fight_live tripwire · LIVE
WATCH — CRWV 5× 93.0C 11 Sep 2026▲ UP +5.2%Neville:0865LIVE
pressing the strike: 4.7% (1.1x a typical daily move) below $93, inside the 5.0% session band; rolling into strength pays; alert at breakeven $94.27
SPOT
$88.86
SURV
71%
TOUCH
T:60%
P/L @ CAP
$-18,632
HOLD FLAT
$-22,392
MARK
$0.95
tv $0.95
DTE
7
▸ roll-door pricing (CREDIT / BUY_TIME / SAFETY buckets) is not yet in the machine seam; check fight's own dashboard for priced doors before approving a specific roll
▸ rebuild outlook: near strike — pre-load the roll order at $93.00 · could fire this session
▸ no priced roll published: rebuild prices proactive roll pools for WAIT (MARGINAL) / ROLL CC (PENDING) routees and for SKIP/WAIT rows in the near-strike outlook band; this row routed SKIP with its outlook outside that band (or its CC marks priced unreliably)
pressing the strike: 3.9% (1.2x a typical daily move) below $332.5, inside the 4.2% session band; rolling into strength pays; alert at breakeven $335.00
SPOT
$320
SURV
73%
MARK
$3.86
tv $3.86
DTE
7
▸ roll-door pricing (CREDIT / BUY_TIME / SAFETY buckets) is not yet in the machine seam; check fight's own dashboard for priced doors before approving a specific roll
▾5 · WRITE · FIGHT (4)deep-drawdown campaign writes: income is the return, decide knowingly
FIGHT PLAN — IREN-LC50 (deep drawdown)▲ UP +6.0%RetireInc:7291LIVEpick is below CC-SAFE $66.91: assignment at $48.00 locks a loss; deep-drawdown campaign write, income is the return (fight doctrine), decide knowingly
sell 17× 48.0C 11 Sep 2026 @ $0.54 bidNEXT FRIDAY
$918 this cycle · $3,934 /mo prorated · E[net] $0/mo
fortress_fight recommended_pick (mirrored verbatim) · LIVE
FIGHT PLAN — IREN-LC45 (deep drawdown)▲ UP +6.0%Neville:0865LIVEpick is below CC-SAFE $58.37: assignment at $48.00 locks a loss; deep-drawdown campaign write, income is the return (fight doctrine), decide knowingly
sell 16× 48.0C 11 Sep 2026 @ $0.54 bidNEXT FRIDAY
$864 this cycle · $3,703 /mo prorated · E[net] $0/mo
fortress_fight recommended_pick (mirrored verbatim) · LIVE
FIGHT PLAN — GLXY (deep drawdown)-1.8%Main:1299LIVEpick is below CC-SAFE $34.95: assignment at $28.00 locks a loss; deep-drawdown campaign write, income is the return (fight doctrine), decide knowingly
sell 23× 28.0C 11 Sep 2026 @ $0.39 bidNEXT FRIDAY
$897 this cycle · $3,844 /mo prorated · E[net] $548/mo
touch odds run COOL on this name: touched 20% vs 32% claimed (-12.5pp), so the challenge odds on this card are conservative here.
survival came in a little better than claimed (95% vs 85%, +9.9pp): the model is conservative on this name.
↳ related decision 2026-09-04 22:48:10: MODIFIED FIGHT PLAN — GLXY (deep drawdown) (Main:1299) — “auto-healed from TWS fill: wrote 100x 30.0C 11 Sep 2026 instead of the suggested 27.0C 11 Sep 2026”
↳ related decision 2026-08-19 23:42:49: SNOOZED FIGHT PLAN — GLXY (deep drawdown) (Main:1299)
fortress_fight recommended_pick (mirrored verbatim) · LIVE
FIGHT PLAN — COIN-LC500 (deep drawdown)▼ DOWN -4.1%Main:1299LIVEpick is below CC-SAFE $354: assignment at $200 locks a loss; deep-drawdown campaign write, income is the return (fight doctrine), decide knowingly
Track record on today's board · predicted vs realized over 11203 matured predictions (fight+rebuild+scanner) · display only: this never moves a strike, a survival number or a ranking
Ticker
Preds
Touch Δ
Surv Δ
Read
NEM
260
+38.4pp
-39.8pp
runs HOT, leave room
DELL
280
+17.5pp
-3.6pp
runs HOT, leave room
GLXY
442
-12.5pp
+9.9pp
runs COOL, model conservative
MU
930
-15.0pp
+8.1pp
runs COOL, model conservative
APP
286
-20.3pp
+10.5pp
runs COOL, model conservative
Touch Δ = realized minus claimed first-passage odds (positive = touched more often than the tools said, so expect to manage it more). Surv Δ = realized minus claimed survival (negative = assigned more often than modelled, so the cap give-up is likelier to be real).
▾DECISION LOGwhat you decided, and what happened next
When
Card
Decision
Comment
Status
Fri 04 Sep · 3 decisions
22:51:03
CHALLENGE PROFITABLE — MU 1× 1050.0C 18 Sep 2026 (Joint:1782)
rejected
Will take profits before earnings
rejected (hidden)
22:48:10
FIGHT PLAN — GLXY (deep drawdown) (Main:1299)
modified
auto-healed from TWS fill: wrote 100x 30.0C 11 Sep 2026 instead of the suggested 27.0C 11 Sep 2026
auto · executed · variant
22:45:49
FIGHT PLAN — SPCX (deep drawdown) (Neville:0865)
approved
auto-healed from TWS fill: sold as suggested
auto · executed · exact
Thu 03 Sep · 2 decisions
22:05:50
ROLL — NOW 10× 140.0C 16 Oct 2026 (Main:1299)
rejected
will take profits
rejected (hidden)
00:54:05
WATCH — AMD 2× 475.0C 04 Sep 2026 (Neville:0865)
snoozed
High Surv%
snoozed
Wed 02 Sep · 1 decision
22:46:42
WATCH — NOW 10× 140.0C 16 Oct 2026 (Main:1299)
rejected
Want to take profits on NOW and exit
rejected (hidden)
Tue 01 Sep · 1 decision
22:19:33
BANK — AMZN 5× 270.0C 04 Sep 2026 (Joint:1782)
approved
executed · leg_gone
Wed 26 Aug · 1 decision
22:32:43
ROLL — BMNR 50× 24.0C 02 Oct 2026 (RetireInc:7291)
snoozed
snoozed
Tue 25 Aug · 2 decisions
00:23:49
WATCH — GOOG 5× 350.0C 11 Sep 2026 (Joint:1782)
approved
executed · exact
00:21:49
WATCH — GOOG 5× 350.0C 11 Sep 2026 (Joint:1782)
approved
undone 00:22
Mon 24 Aug · 2 decisions
23:56:58
ROLL — MSTR 4× 125.0C 04 Sep 2026 (RetireInc:7291)
approved
executed · exact
23:56:51
WATCH — MSTR 10× 125.0C 04 Sep 2026 (Joint:1782)
approved
executed · exact
Fri 21 Aug · 3 decisions
23:58:54
FIGHT PLAN — COIN-LC500 (deep drawdown) (Main:1299)