FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

43 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 4 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 8 skipped (CSV) | 2 uncapped above water | 29 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $40,050/mo (51% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $18,329/mo
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $215,923 locked in if all 12 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium; 2 call(s) have no marked floor and are not counted.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard | ranked by today's move: sell into strength (▲ UP BIG) first

POSITION				CC-SAFE	INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	CC-safe ≥ floor	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
IREN-LC45 ↗ ▲ UP +6.0% Neville:0865 · Next Fri	20	$43.87	$58.37	20 × $60 2 Oct (28d) $1,180 cyc · $1,264/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 13%	20 × $51 11 Sep (7d) $400 cyc · $1,714/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:16%hist 13%	🎯 17 × $48 11 Sep (7d) $901 cyc · $3,861/mo 82% survhist 86% · T:38%hist 31%	19 × $47 11 Sep (7d) $1,368 cyc · $5,863/mo 76% survhist 84% · T:49%hist 38%	16 × $44 11 Sep (7d) $2,736 cyc · $11,726/mo 53% survhist 69% · T:98%hist 89%	$4,519	-$16,732 (278.9% IC)	33.1%
IREN-LC50 ↗ ▲ UP +6.0% RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri	20	$43.87	$66.91	20 × $65 11 Sep (7d) $20 cyc · $86/mo 99% survhist 96% · T:1%hist 2%	20 × $51 11 Sep (7d) $400 cyc · $1,714/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:16%hist 13%	🎯 17 × $48 11 Sep (7d) $901 cyc · $3,861/mo 82% survhist 86% · T:38%hist 31%	19 × $47 11 Sep (7d) $1,368 cyc · $5,863/mo 76% survhist 84% · T:49%hist 38%	16 × $44 11 Sep (7d) $2,736 cyc · $11,726/mo 53% survhist 69% · T:98%hist 89%	$3,124	-$31,239 (228.0% IC)	52.5%
ABOVE WATER no FIGHT needed; sell normal CCs (cc_scanner owns these writes)
ETHA Main:1299	50	$18.49	$17.33 BE	+6.7% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here
SPY Neville:0865	12	$772.68	$764.00 BE	+1.1% above BE SS · sell normal CCs via cc_scanner; FIGHT deliberately fetches no chain here [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational
GLXY ↗ ⚐ Main:1299 · Next Fri	25	$26.28	$34.95	25 × $35 18 Sep (14d) $175 cyc · $375/mo 96% survhist 96% · T:8%hist 2%	25 × $31 11 Sep (7d) $150 cyc · $643/mo 93% survhist 96% · T:14%hist 13%	18 × $28.50 11 Sep (7d) $576 cyc · $2,469/mo 80% survhist 86% · T:41%hist 38%	🎯 23 × $28 11 Sep (7d) $897 cyc · $3,844/mo 75% survhist 84% · T:51%hist 43%	21 × $26.50 11 Sep (7d) $1,764 cyc · $7,560/mo 55% survhist 69% · T:93%hist 89%	$4,837	-$15,081 (273.0% IC)	33.0%
COIN-LC500 ↗ ▼ DOWN -4.1% Main:1299 · Next Fri	25	$185.02	$353.88	25 × $500 18 Sep (14d) $25 cyc · $54/mo 99+% survhist 96% · T:0%hist 2%	25 × $210 11 Sep (7d) $1,975 cyc · $8,464/mo 92% survhist 96% · T:17%hist 13%	🎯 21 × $200 11 Sep (7d) $3,843 cyc · $16,470/mo 82% survhist 86% · T:37%hist 31%	21 × $195 11 Sep (7d) $5,712 cyc · $24,480/mo 74% survhist 84% · T:53%hist 43%	23 × $187.50 11 Sep (7d) $11,454 cyc · $49,089/mo 58% survhist 69% · T:87%hist 79%	-	-$319,301 (202.7% IC)	91.3%
TOTAL (4)	90	following every 🎯 $6,542 cyc · $28,037/mo		$1,400 cyc · $1,779/mo	$2,925 cyc · $12,536/mo	$6,221 cyc · $26,661/mo	$9,345 cyc · $40,050/mo	$18,690 cyc · $80,100/mo	$12,479	-$382,352

Spot \ Time	≥ 15d left	3-14d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $59.40	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $59-60.62	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $60.62	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$60.00 (1.7σ)	$1,180	$5,810	+$38,085	+$10,460
+2.5%	$61.50 (1.9σ)	$-1,820	$6,242	+$38,517	+$10,460
+5%	$63.00 (2.0σ)	$-4,820	$6,674	+$38,949	+$10,460

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$51	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$1.34/sh	+$2,682 cycle +$3,082 [+$2,787…+$3,432] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$12,880 NOT cap gain +$19,396
Max even-money escape in the band	~$60	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.19/sh	+$371 cycle +$771 [-$231…+$989] · 66% credit	83% surv 79%	+$5,698 SAFE cap gain +$37,974
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$54	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.12/sh	+$237 cycle +$637 [-$191…+$670] · 65% credit	76% surv 69%	-$8,164 NOT cap gain +$24,112
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$62	2 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.09/sh	-$171 cycle +$229 [-$878…+$399] · 40% credit	85% surv 83%	+$9,732 SAFE cap gain +$42,008
budget: banked $400 debit $171 (43% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$229 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $3,878/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $50.49	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $50-51.22	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $51.22	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$51.00 (1.5σ)	$400	$-15,562	+$16,713	-$320
+2.5%	$52.27 (1.8σ)	$-2,150	$-15,195	+$17,081	-$2,870
+5%	$53.55 (2.0σ)	$-4,700	$-14,828	+$17,448	-$5,420
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.50 (2.7σ)	$-10,600	$-13,978	+$18,297	-$8,320

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (17 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$48	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$1.22/sh	+$2,066 cycle +$2,967 [+$1,959…+$2,349] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$19,751 NOT cap gain +$12,524
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$55	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.47/sh	+$803 cycle +$1,704 [+$288…+$980] · 88% credit	81% surv 77%	-$4,740 NOT cap gain +$27,536
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$51	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.02/sh	+$29 cycle +$930 [-$402…+$94] · 32% credit	77% surv 70%	-$14,627 NOT cap gain +$17,649
Max even-money escape in the band	~$57	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.00/sh	+$3 cycle +$904 [-$666…+$106] · 30% credit	84% surv 81%	-$1,564 NOT cap gain +$30,712
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$59	2 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.25/sh	-$423 cycle +$478 [-$1,172…-$350] · 14% credit	87% surv 85%	+$1,987 SAFE cap gain +$34,262
budget: banked $901 debit $423 (47% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$478 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $2,608/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $47.52	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $48-48.55	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $48.55	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$48.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$901	$-21,817	+$10,458	+$289
+2.5%	$49.20 (1.1σ)	$-1,139	$-21,112	+$11,164	-$1,751
+5%	$50.40 (1.4σ)	$-3,179	$-20,406	+$11,870	-$3,791
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.50 (2.7σ)	$-13,549	$-17,269	+$15,006	-$11,611

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (19 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$47	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$1.17/sh	+$2,216 cycle +$3,584 [+$2,032…+$2,456] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$21,494 NOT cap gain +$10,782
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$54	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.39/sh	+$743 cycle +$2,111 [-$16…+$760] · 74% credit	82% surv 77%	-$6,653 NOT cap gain +$25,622
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$50	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.13/sh	+$240 cycle +$1,608 [-$308…+$222] · 43% credit	76% surv 68%	-$17,452 NOT cap gain +$14,823
Max even-money escape in the band	~$55	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.11/sh	+$202 cycle +$1,570 [-$692…+$179] · 33% credit	83% surv 80%	-$4,920 NOT cap gain +$27,355
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$58	2 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.30/sh	-$579 cycle +$789 [-$1,661…-$675] · 9% credit	87% surv 85%	+$863 SAFE cap gain +$33,139
budget: banked $1,368 debit $579 (42% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$789 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $2,677/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $46.53	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $47-47.73	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $47.73	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$47.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,368	$-23,710	+$8,565	+$684
+2.5%	$48.17 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-864	$-23,254	+$9,021	-$1,548
+5%	$49.35 (1.2σ)	$-3,097	$-22,798	+$9,477	-$3,781
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.50 (2.7σ)	$-16,682	$-20,174	+$12,101	-$14,516

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (16 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$44	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$1.06/sh	+$1,691 cycle +$4,427 [+$1,479…+$1,560] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$27,408 NOT cap gain +$4,868
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$50	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.43/sh	+$683 cycle +$3,419 [-$184…+$297] · 61% credit	81% surv 76%	-$14,390 NOT cap gain +$17,885
Max even-money escape in the band	~$51	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.20/sh	+$316 cycle +$3,052 [-$661…-$96] · 16% credit	83% surv 79%	-$12,469 NOT cap gain +$19,807
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$47	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.04/sh	+$61 cycle +$2,797 [-$592…-$207] · 8% credit	76% surv 69%	-$23,020 NOT cap gain +$9,256
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$55	25 Sep 2026	18d left	-$0.77/sh	-$1,235 cycle +$1,501 [-$2,715…-$1,781]	91% surv 90%	-$4,919 NOT cap gain +$27,356
budget: banked $2,736 debit $1,235 (45% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,501 cash · rolled 16 ct earn ≈ $1,339/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $43.56	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $44-45.72	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $45.72	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$44.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,736	$-29,098	+$3,177	+$2,160
+2.5%	$45.10 (≤1σ, normal week)	$976	$-28,341	+$3,934	+$400
+5%	$46.20 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-784	$-27,585	+$4,691	-$1,360
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.50 (2.7σ)	$-17,264	$-21,098	+$11,177	-$15,440

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$65	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$2.01/sh	+$4,012 cycle +$4,032	69% surv 53%	+$1,003 SAFE cap gain +$51,828
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$70	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.16/sh	+$324 cycle +$344	77% surv 70%	+$8,920 SAFE cap gain +$59,744
Max even-money escape in the band	~$81	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.16/sh	+$315 cycle +$335	85% surv 82%	+$33,793 SAFE cap gain +$84,617

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $64.35	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $64-65.02	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $65.02	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$65.00 (4.5σ)	$20	$-3,008	+$47,816	-$140
+2.5%	$66.62 (4.8σ)	$-3,230	$-2,582	+$48,242	-$140
+5%	$68.25 (5.1σ)	$-6,480	$-2,157	+$48,668	-$140

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$51	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$1.34/sh	+$2,682 cycle +$3,082 [+$2,787…+$3,432] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$31,614 NOT cap gain +$19,210
Max even-money escape in the band	~$60	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.19/sh	+$371 cycle +$771 [-$231…+$989] · 66% credit	83% surv 79%	-$13,273 NOT cap gain +$37,551
SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$54	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.12/sh	+$237 cycle +$637 [-$191…+$670] · 65% credit	76% surv 69%	-$26,979 NOT cap gain +$23,845
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$62	2 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.09/sh	-$171 cycle +$229 [-$878…+$399] · 40% credit	85% surv 83%	-$9,291 NOT cap gain +$41,533
budget: banked $400 debit $171 (43% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$229 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $3,878/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $50.49	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $50-51.22	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $51.22	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$51.00 (1.5σ)	$400	$-34,296	+$16,528	+$240
+2.5%	$52.27 (1.8σ)	$-2,150	$-33,962	+$16,862	-$2,310
+5%	$53.55 (2.0σ)	$-4,700	$-33,628	+$17,196	-$4,860
SS (= V-bounce)	$63.43 (4.1σ)	$-24,460	$-31,039	+$19,785	-$24,620

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (17 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$48	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$1.22/sh	+$2,066 cycle +$2,967 [+$1,959…+$2,349] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$38,491 NOT cap gain +$12,333
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$55	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.47/sh	+$803 cycle +$1,704 [+$288…+$980] · 88% credit	81% surv 77%	-$23,626 NOT cap gain +$27,198
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$51	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.02/sh	+$29 cycle +$930 [-$402…+$94] · 32% credit	77% surv 70%	-$33,448 NOT cap gain +$17,376
Max even-money escape in the band	~$57	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.00/sh	+$3 cycle +$904 [-$666…+$106] · 30% credit	84% surv 81%	-$19,902 NOT cap gain +$30,922
SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$59	2 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.25/sh	-$423 cycle +$478 [-$1,172…-$350] · 14% credit	87% surv 85%	-$15,804 NOT cap gain +$35,020
budget: banked $901 debit $423 (47% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$478 cash · rolled 17 ct earn ≈ $2,608/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $47.52	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $48-48.55	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $48.55	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$48.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$901	$-40,557	+$10,267	+$765
+2.5%	$49.20 (1.1σ)	$-1,139	$-39,883	+$10,941	-$1,275
+5%	$50.40 (1.4σ)	$-3,179	$-39,208	+$11,616	-$3,315
SS (= V-bounce)	$63.43 (4.1σ)	$-25,330	$-31,885	+$18,939	-$25,466

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (19 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$47	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$1.17/sh	+$2,216 cycle +$3,584 [+$2,032…+$2,456] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$40,152 NOT cap gain +$10,672
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$54	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.39/sh	+$743 cycle +$2,111 [-$16…+$760] · 74% credit	82% surv 77%	-$25,497 NOT cap gain +$25,328
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$50	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.13/sh	+$240 cycle +$1,608 [-$308…+$222] · 43% credit	76% surv 68%	-$36,179 NOT cap gain +$14,646
Max even-money escape in the band	~$55	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.11/sh	+$202 cycle +$1,570 [-$692…+$179] · 33% credit	83% surv 80%	-$23,777 NOT cap gain +$27,048
SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$58	2 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.30/sh	-$579 cycle +$789 [-$1,661…-$675] · 9% credit	87% surv 85%	-$17,771 NOT cap gain +$33,053
budget: banked $1,368 debit $579 (42% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$789 cash · rolled 19 ct earn ≈ $2,677/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $46.53	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $47-47.73	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $47.73	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$47.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,368	$-42,368	+$8,456	+$1,216
+2.5%	$48.17 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-864	$-41,943	+$8,881	-$1,016
+5%	$49.35 (1.2σ)	$-3,097	$-41,517	+$9,307	-$3,249
SS (= V-bounce)	$63.43 (4.1σ)	$-29,849	$-36,420	+$14,404	-$30,001

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (16 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$44	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$1.06/sh	+$1,691 cycle +$4,427 [+$1,479…+$1,560] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%	-$46,072 NOT cap gain +$4,753
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$50	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.43/sh	+$683 cycle +$3,419 [-$184…+$297] · 61% credit	81% surv 76%	-$33,214 NOT cap gain +$17,611
Max even-money escape in the band	~$51	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.20/sh	+$316 cycle +$3,052 [-$661…-$96] · 16% credit	83% surv 79%	-$31,318 NOT cap gain +$19,506
SS $63 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$47	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.04/sh	+$61 cycle +$2,797 [-$592…-$207] · 8% credit	76% surv 69%	-$41,752 NOT cap gain +$9,072
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$55	25 Sep 2026	18d left	-$0.77/sh	-$1,235 cycle +$1,501 [-$2,715…-$1,781]	91% surv 90%	-$23,821 NOT cap gain +$27,003
budget: banked $2,736 debit $1,235 (45% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,501 cash · rolled 16 ct earn ≈ $1,339/mo while parked; 4 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $43.56	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $44-45.72	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $45.72	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 32 active short call(s) 2 TRIPPED · 3 watch · 1 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress Acct Call Spot Breakeven Mark Time value Status Action

NEM Main:1299 5x $125C 18 Sep 2026 (14d) $127.89 $125.40 $5.82 $2.93 TRIPPED ▸ 🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸

🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you

$2.89/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks NEM 1:1); only $2.93 is live theta (~$1,465). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its BE SS (no leg marks) ($114.54), so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss. Rolling $125→$128 banks +$1.91/sh (+$956) and sells fatter forward theta, you relocate the decay to a higher cap, not forfeit it.

▸ Gate on price: hold while NEM is not making new highs; fire the roll before it breaks $128, above which this credit door closes.

🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 5x $125C at ~$6.04 ($3,022), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask

BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.

Tenor	Lens	Target	Net/sh	Total (5 ct)	Surv	Cap lift	vs shorter tenor
≤45d	💰 max credit	$130 16 Oct 2026 (42d)	+$0.40	+$201	55%	$+5 cap	—
≤45d	🏰 max cap ~free	$130 16 Oct 2026 (42d)	+$0.40	+$201	55%	$+5 cap	—
≤60d	💰 max credit	$128 23 Oct 2026 (49d)	+$1.91	+$956	50%	$+3 cap	+$1.51/sh for +7d
≤60d	🏰 max cap ~free	$133 23 Oct 2026 (49d)	+$0.29	+$145	60%	$+8 cap	cap +$3 for +7d

CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)

Target	Sell @	Net/sh	Total (5 ct)	Stock @ Cap	Surv	Type
$128 9 Oct 2026 (35d)	$6.42	+$0.38	+$189	—	50%	OUT+UP
$129 9 Oct 2026 (35d)	$6.22	+$0.18	+$90	—	53%	OUT+UP
$130 16 Oct 2026 (42d)	$6.45	+$0.40	+$201	—	55%	OUT+UP

BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)

Target	Sell @	Net/sh	Total (5 ct)	Stock @ Cap	Surv	Type
$133 23 Oct 2026 (49d)	$6.34	+$0.29	+$145	—	60%	OUT+UP
$132 23 Oct 2026 (49d)	$6.08	+$0.04	+$20	—	58%	OUT+UP
$131 23 Oct 2026 (49d)	$6.48	+$0.44	+$220	—	56%	OUT+UP
$128 23 Oct 2026 (49d)	$7.96	+$1.91	+$956	—	50%	OUT+UP

NOW Main:1299 10x $140C 16 Oct 2026 (42d) $141.40 $155.41 $10.90 $9.49 TRIPPED ▸ 🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸

🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you

$1.40/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks NOW 1:1); only $9.49 is live theta (~$9,495). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This strike caps $2.84/sh BELOW the CC-SS $142.84: assignment locks about $2,840 before premium, so the roll is about protecting recovery, not just income. Rolling $140→$142 banks +$0.17/sh (+$167) and sells fatter forward theta, you relocate the decay to a higher cap, not forfeit it.

▸ Gate on price: hold while NOW is not making new highs; fire the roll before it breaks $142, above which this credit door closes.

🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 10x $140C at ~$10.96 ($10,958), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask

BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.

Tenor	Lens	Target	Net/sh	Total (10 ct)	Surv	Cap lift	vs shorter tenor
≤60d	💰 max credit	$142 23 Oct 2026 (49d)	+$0.17	+$167	51%	$+2 cap	—
≤60d	🏰 max cap ~free	$142 23 Oct 2026 (49d)	+$0.17	+$167	51%	$+2 cap	—

CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)

Target	Sell @	Net/sh	Total (10 ct)	Stock @ Cap	Surv	Type
$142 23 Oct 2026 (49d)	$11.12	+$0.17	+$167	+$32,262	51%	OUT+UP

APP RetireInc:7291 1x $332.5C 11 Sep 2026 (7d) $319.94 $335.00 $3.87 $3.87 WATCH ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

12.56 OTM = 3.9% (1.2x a typical daily move). The $3.87 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$245 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $276.46/sh BELOW the $608.96 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $27,646 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out. You CAN raise the cap: rolling up-and-out to $370 (28d) for +$0.37/sh lifts it $38, but that locks the cap 28 days vs holding, which keeps the near-certain premium and stays free to re-strike next cycle.

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $335.00 (breakeven).

🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 1x $332.5C at ~$4.30 ($430), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask

BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.

Tenor	Lens	Target	Net/sh	Total (1 ct)	Surv	Cap lift	vs shorter tenor
≤15d	💰 max credit	$332.5 18 Sep 2026 (14d)	+$3.19	+$319	65%	$+0 cap	—
≤15d	🏰 max cap ~free	$340 18 Sep 2026 (14d)	+$1.18	+$118	73%	$+8 cap	—
≤30d	💰 max credit	$335 2 Oct 2026 (28d)	+$8.63	+$863	63%	$+2 cap	+$5.43/sh for +14d
≤30d	🏰 max cap ~free	$370 2 Oct 2026 (28d)	+$0.37	+$37	85%	$+38 cap	cap +$30 for +14d
≤45d	💰	= the ≤30d pick (nothing longer beats it)
≤45d	🏰	= the ≤30d pick (nothing longer beats it)
≤60d	💰	= the ≤45d pick (nothing longer beats it)
≤60d	🏰	= the ≤45d pick (nothing longer beats it)

CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)

Target	Sell @	Net/sh	Total (1 ct)	Stock @ Cap	Surv	Type
$332.5 18 Sep 2026 (14d)	$7.50	+$3.19	+$319	—	65%	OUT
$335 18 Sep 2026 (14d)	$6.52	+$2.22	+$222	—	68%	OUT+UP
$340 18 Sep 2026 (14d)	$5.49	+$1.18	+$118	—	73%	OUT+UP

BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)

Target	Sell @	Net/sh	Total (1 ct)	Stock @ Cap	Surv	Type
$370 2 Oct 2026 (28d)	$4.67	+$0.37	+$37	—	85%	OUT+UP
$365 2 Oct 2026 (28d)	$5.35	+$1.05	+$105	—	83%	OUT+UP
$360 2 Oct 2026 (28d)	$6.38	+$2.07	+$207	—	80%	OUT+UP
$335 2 Oct 2026 (28d)	$12.93	+$8.63	+$863	—	63%	OUT+UP

SAFETY (small debit, better sigma)

Target	Sell @	Net/sh	Total (1 ct)	Stock @ Cap	Surv	Type
$395 2 Oct 2026 (28d)	$2.16	-$2.14	-$214	—	93%	OUT+UP
$390 2 Oct 2026 (28d)	$2.52	-$1.78	-$178	—	92%	OUT+UP
$380 25 Sep 2026 (21d)	$2.22	-$2.08	-$208	—	92%	OUT+UP

CRWV Neville:0865 5x $93C 11 Sep 2026 (7d) $88.83 $94.27 $0.95 $0.95 WATCH ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

4.17 OTM = 4.7% (1.1x a typical daily move). The $0.95 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$609 kept if it expires quiet). Note the cap: this strike sits $34.44/sh BELOW the $127.44 recovery-to-whole floor, so being taken here locks about $17,220 before premium. Roll UP-and-out rather than just out.

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $94.27 (breakeven).

🚪 Escape paths deferred , CRWV is a heavy chain and this call is WATCH, not TRIPPED, so it was not fetched to keep the portfolio run fast. For the live roll menu, run fortress_fight.py --tickers CRWV.

SNDK Neville:0865 1x $1800C 2 Oct 2026 (28d) $1,710.91 $1,882.78 $107.63 $107.63 WATCH ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

89.09 OTM = 5.2% (1.3x a typical daily move). The $107.63 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$8,273 kept if it expires quiet). You CAN raise the cap: rolling up-and-out to $1890 (49d) for +$15.03/sh lifts it $90, but that locks the cap 49 days vs holding, which keeps the near-certain premium and stays free to re-strike next cycle.

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,882.78 (breakeven).

🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 1x $1800C at ~$109.71 ($10,971), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask

BEST BY TENOR , the commitment ladder: what each extra week of tenor buys. Every pick also appears in its bucket below.

Tenor	Lens	Target	Net/sh	Total (1 ct)	Surv	Cap lift	vs shorter tenor
≤45d	💰 max credit	$1840 16 Oct 2026 (42d)	+$17.14	+$1,714	61%	$+40 cap	—
≤45d	🏰 max cap ~free	$1880 16 Oct 2026 (42d)	+$4.61	+$461	65%	$+80 cap	—
≤60d	💰 max credit	$1800 23 Oct 2026 (49d)	+$44.62	+$4,462	57%	$+0 cap	+$27.48/sh for +7d
≤60d	🏰 max cap ~free	$1890 23 Oct 2026 (49d)	+$15.03	+$1,503	65%	$+90 cap	cap +$10 for +7d

CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)

Target	Sell @	Net/sh	Total (1 ct)	Stock @ Cap	Surv	Type
$1800 9 Oct 2026 (35d)	$122.94	+$13.23	+$1,323	+$9,277	59%	OUT
$1805 9 Oct 2026 (35d)	$121.20	+$11.49	+$1,149	+$9,622	59%	OUT+UP
$1810 9 Oct 2026 (35d)	$119.09	+$9.38	+$938	+$9,929	60%	OUT+UP

BUY TIME (credit + longer DTE, higher cap)

Target	Sell @	Net/sh	Total (1 ct)	Stock @ Cap	Surv	Type
$1890 23 Oct 2026 (49d)	$124.73	+$15.03	+$1,503	+$18,790	65%	OUT+UP
$1885 23 Oct 2026 (49d)	$126.64	+$16.93	+$1,693	+$18,461	64%	OUT+UP
$1880 23 Oct 2026 (49d)	$127.89	+$18.19	+$1,819	+$18,069	64%	OUT+UP
$1805 23 Oct 2026 (49d)	$151.80	+$42.09	+$4,209	+$12,681	58%	OUT+UP
$1840 16 Oct 2026 (42d)	$126.84	+$17.14	+$1,714	+$13,816	61%	OUT+UP
$1880 16 Oct 2026 (42d)	$114.31	+$4.61	+$461	+$16,711	65%	OUT+UP
$1800 23 Oct 2026 (49d)	$154.33	+$44.62	+$4,462	+$12,416	57%	OUT

HIMS Main:1299 15x $36C 18 Sep 2026 (14d) $27.62 $36.63 $0.12 $0.12 HARVEST ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

8.38 OTM = 30.3% (5.8x a typical daily move). The $0.12 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$875 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $36.63 (breakeven).

GOOG-LC300 Neville:0865 15x $350C 11 Sep 2026 (6d) $335.98 $350.70 $0.75 $0.75 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

14.02 OTM. The $0.75 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$979 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $350.70 (breakeven).

GOOG-LC340 Neville:0865 5x $350C 11 Sep 2026 (6d) $335.98 $350.70 $0.75 $0.75 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

14.02 OTM. The $0.75 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$326 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $350.70 (breakeven).

AMZN Joint:1782 5x $267.5C 11 Sep 2026 (7d) $258.14 $268.32 $1.38 $1.38 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

9.36 OTM = 3.6% (2.1x a typical daily move). The $1.38 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$385 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $268.32 (breakeven).

NVDA Main:1299 10x $240C 11 Sep 2026 (7d) $230.09 $240.66 $1.44 $1.44 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

9.91 OTM = 4.3% (2.2x a typical daily move). The $1.44 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$613 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $240.66 (breakeven).

SPCX Neville:0865 5x $160C 11 Sep 2026 (7d) $148.95 $161.00 $0.78 $0.78 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

11.05 OTM = 7.4% (2.4x a typical daily move). The $0.78 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$476 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $161.00 (breakeven).

RKLB RetireInc:7291 6x $69C 11 Sep 2026 (7d) $64.08 $69.65 $0.77 $0.77 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

4.92 OTM = 7.7% (1.9x a typical daily move). The $0.77 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$360 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $69.65 (breakeven).

INTC Neville:0865 5x $103C 11 Sep 2026 (7d) $94.72 $103.74 $0.65 $0.65 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

8.28 OTM = 8.7% (2.5x a typical daily move). The $0.65 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$346 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $103.74 (breakeven).

IREN-LC25-1299 Main:1299 20x $48C 11 Sep 2026 (7d) $43.87 $48.41 $0.55 $0.55 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

4.13 OTM = 9.4% (2.0x a typical daily move). The $0.55 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$725 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $48.41 (breakeven).

IREN-LC25-1782 Joint:1782 20x $48C 11 Sep 2026 (7d) $43.87 $48.41 $0.55 $0.55 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

4.13 OTM = 9.4% (2.0x a typical daily move). The $0.55 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$717 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $48.41 (breakeven).

GLXY Main:1299 100x $30C 11 Sep 2026 (7d) $26.28 $30.13 $0.16 $0.16 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

3.72 OTM = 14.2% (2.7x a typical daily move). The $0.16 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$754 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $30.13 (breakeven).

MU-LC670 Joint:1782 1x $1050C 18 Sep 2026 (14d) $1,002.25 $1,067.67 $19.27 $19.27 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

47.75 OTM = 4.8% (1.4x a typical daily move). The $19.27 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,762 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,067.67 (breakeven).

QCOM RetireInc:7291 5x $180C 18 Sep 2026 (14d) $167.60 $182.48 $1.61 $1.61 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

12.40 OTM = 7.4% (2.8x a typical daily move). The $1.61 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,216 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $182.48 (breakeven).

AMD Neville:0865 2x $510C 18 Sep 2026 (14d) $471.80 $514.65 $5.44 $5.44 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

38.20 OTM = 8.1% (2.9x a typical daily move). The $5.44 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$919 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $514.65 (breakeven).

COPX Joint:1782 20x $100C 18 Sep 2026 (14d) $90.34 $101.31 $0.45 $0.45 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

9.66 OTM = 10.7% (3.8x a typical daily move). The $0.45 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,511 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $101.31 (breakeven).

DELL RetireInc:7291 3x $550C 25 Sep 2026 (21d) $518.08 $565.44 $17.68 $17.68 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

31.92 OTM = 6.2% (1.6x a typical daily move). The $17.68 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,616 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $565.44 (breakeven).

MU-LC880 Main:1299 5x $1120C 2 Oct 2026 (28d) $1,002.25 $1,151.29 $32.83 $32.83 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

117.75 OTM. The $32.83 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$15,620 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,151.29 (breakeven).

MU-LC970 Neville:0865 2x $1120C 2 Oct 2026 (28d) $1,002.25 $1,151.27 $32.83 $32.83 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

117.75 OTM. The $32.83 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,243 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,151.27 (breakeven).

COIN-LC165 Main:1299 8x $220C 2 Oct 2026 (28d) $185.02 $229.43 $4.01 $4.01 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

34.98 OTM = 18.9% (4.3x a typical daily move). The $4.01 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$7,506 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $229.43 (breakeven).

GOOG-LC310 Joint:1782 5x $365C 16 Oct 2026 (42d) $335.98 $374.44 $4.14 $4.14 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

29.02 OTM = 8.6% (4.8x a typical daily move). The $4.14 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,695 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $374.44 (breakeven).

IREN-LC25-1299 Main:1299 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (42d) $43.87 $55.88 $1.88 $1.88 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

11.13 OTM = 25.4% (4.7x a typical daily move). The $1.88 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,666 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.88 (breakeven).

IREN-LC25-1782 Joint:1782 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (42d) $43.87 $55.88 $1.88 $1.88 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

11.13 OTM = 25.4% (4.7x a typical daily move). The $1.88 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,666 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $55.88 (breakeven).

META Main:1299 3x $665C 20 Nov 2026 (77d) $616.08 $687.21 $26.67 $26.67 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

48.92 OTM = 7.9% (3.1x a typical daily move). The $26.67 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,649 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $687.21 (breakeven).

MSTR-LC125 RetireInc:7291 4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (77d) $144.18 $180.96 $10.75 $10.75 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

25.82 OTM = 17.9% (3.6x a typical daily move). The $10.75 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$4,364 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.96 (breakeven).

MSTR-LC180 Joint:1782 10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (77d) $144.18 $180.95 $10.75 $10.75 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

25.82 OTM = 17.9% (3.6x a typical daily move). The $10.75 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$10,900 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $180.95 (breakeven).

IGV Main:1299 12x $125C 20 Nov 2026 (77d) $104.55 $126.98 $1.04 $1.04 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

20.45 OTM = 19.6% (10.2x a typical daily move). The $1.04 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,313 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $126.98 (breakeven).

GLD Main:1299 10x $470C 18 Dec 2026 (105d) $405.99 $476.90 $5.53 $5.53 OK ▸ 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning

64.01 OTM = 15.8% (9.5x a typical daily move). The $5.53 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$6,847 kept if it expires quiet).

▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $476.90 (breakeven).

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 8 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
BMNR-LC23-1299	Main:1299	75	$25.29	$53.26	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 52.5% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC23-1782	Joint:1782	150	$25.29	$36.42	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 30.6% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$25.29	$65.83	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 61.6% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING]
CLSK	RetireInc:7291	25	$12.55	$20.74	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 39.5% below BE SS
ENPH	RetireInc:7291	10	$36.03	$56.15	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 35.8% below BE SS
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$44.95	$70.58	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 36.3% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC13	Main:1299	400	$11.32	$16.75	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 32.4% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC40	RetireInc:7291	500	$11.32	$41.04	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 72.4% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

CAPPED: 29 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AMD	Neville:0865	2	$489.91	2x $510C 18 Sep 2026 (14d)
AMZN	Joint:1782	5	$267.92	5x $268C 11 Sep 2026 (7d)
APP	RetireInc:7291	1	$588.00	1x $332C 11 Sep 2026 (7d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $220C 2 Oct 2026 (28d)
COPX	Joint:1782	20	$93.40	20x $100C 18 Sep 2026 (14d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $93C 11 Sep 2026 (7d)
DELL	RetireInc:7291	3	$398.00	3x $550C 25 Sep 2026 (21d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $470C 18 Dec 2026 (105d)
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15	$373.00	15x $350C 11 Sep 2026 (6d) [CC_SPLIT(15x of 20x $345C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity), CC_SPLIT(15x of 20x $350C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)]
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $365C 16 Oct 2026 (42d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC340	Neville:0865	5	$398.00	5x $350C 11 Sep 2026 (6d) [CC_SPLIT(5x of 20x $345C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity), CC_SPLIT(5x of 20x $350C, merged same-strike fill split by capacity)]
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$17.47	15x $36C 18 Sep 2026 (14d)
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $125C 20 Nov 2026 (77d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
INTC	Neville:0865	5	$114.00	5x $103C 11 Sep 2026 (7d)
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $48C 11 Sep 2026 (7d), 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (42d)
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $48C 11 Sep 2026 (7d), 20x $55C 16 Oct 2026 (42d)
META	Main:1299	3	$601.50	3x $665C 20 Nov 2026 (77d)
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (77d)
MSTR-LC180	Joint:1782	10	$233.00	10x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (77d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MU-LC670	Joint:1782	1	$792.36	1x $1050C 18 Sep 2026 (14d)
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5	$1,028.60	5x $1120C 2 Oct 2026 (28d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1120C 2 Oct 2026 (28d)
NEM	Main:1299	5	$114.54	5x $125C 18 Sep 2026 (14d)
NOW	Main:1299	10	$108.93	10x $140C 16 Oct 2026 (42d)
NVDA	Main:1299	10	$264.80	10x $240C 11 Sep 2026 (7d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $180C 18 Sep 2026 (14d)
RKLB	RetireInc:7291	6	$141.55	6x $69C 11 Sep 2026 (7d)
SNDK	Neville:0865	1	$1,620.00	1x $1800C 2 Oct 2026 (28d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $160C 11 Sep 2026 (7d)

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 2489 of 2668 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	177	56%	62%	+6pp
60-70%	347	64%	62%	-3pp
70-80%	445	76%	83%	+7pp
80-90%	575	85%	84%	-0pp
90-100%	945	94%	95%	+1pp

Touch odds: predicted 38% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2489 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.51x (W29) to 1.59x (W34) over 8 graded weeks; last week 0.83x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 160 real buyback(s) recorded · 82 roll(s), net +$0.68/sh avg.

💸 What a touch actually costs, over 82 real rolls: buyback $6.35/sh, replacement credit financed 111% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.68/sh (58 of 82 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 --all | 2026-09-05 03:20

Gross FIGHT income	$1,264/mo
vs 50% target ($5,593/mo)	-77%
vs normal income ($11,186/mo)	11% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,107/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($6,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($94,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-32,326

Gross FIGHT income	$1,714/mo
vs 50% target ($5,593/mo)	-69%
vs normal income ($11,186/mo)	15% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,557/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,344
… as % of IC ($6,000)	239.1%
… as % of ML ($94,000)	15.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-32,316

Gross FIGHT income	$3,861/mo
vs 50% target ($5,593/mo)	-31%
vs normal income ($11,186/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,936/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$16,732
… as % of IC ($6,000)	278.9%
… as % of ML ($94,000)	17.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (17 ct)	$-27,468

Gross FIGHT income	$5,863/mo
vs 50% target ($5,593/mo)	+5%
vs normal income ($11,186/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,783/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$20,239
… as % of IC ($6,000)	337.3%
… as % of ML ($94,000)	21.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.8 mo
Surgical close (19 ct)	$-30,690

Gross FIGHT income	$11,726/mo
vs 50% target ($5,593/mo)	+110%
vs normal income ($11,186/mo)	105% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$11,877/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$20,260
… as % of IC ($6,000)	337.7%
… as % of ML ($94,000)	21.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.8 mo
Surgical close (16 ct)	$-25,837

Gross FIGHT income	$86/mo
vs 50% target ($5,614/mo)	-98%
vs normal income ($11,229/mo)	1% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$-100/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$3,791
… as % of IC ($13,700)	27.7%
… as % of ML ($107,700)	3.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.3 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-50,834

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$31,411
… as % of IC ($13,700)	229.3%
… as % of ML ($107,700)	29.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.8 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-50,864

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$31,239
… as % of IC ($13,700)	228.0%
… as % of ML ($107,700)	29.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.8 mo
Surgical close (17 ct)	$-43,235

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$36,453
… as % of IC ($13,700)	266.1%
… as % of ML ($107,700)	33.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.2 mo
Surgical close (19 ct)	$-48,312

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$33,913
… as % of IC ($13,700)	247.5%
… as % of ML ($107,700)	31.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.0 mo
Surgical close (16 ct)	$-40,675

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$35	25 Sep 2026	14d left	+$0.54/sh	+$1,343 cycle +$1,518 [+$1,613…+$2,435] · 100% credit	68% surv 54%	+$1,555 SAFE cap gain +$20,135
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$36	25 Sep 2026	14d left	+$0.20/sh	+$497 cycle +$672 [+$612…+$1,580] · 97% credit	70% surv 58%	+$2,246 SAFE cap gain +$20,827
Max even-money escape in the band	~$37	2 Oct 2026	21d left	+$0.29/sh	+$734 cycle +$909 [+$883…+$2,120] · 97% credit	72% surv 63%	+$4,618 SAFE cap gain +$23,198
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$38	2 Oct 2026	21d left	-$0.07/sh	-$174 cycle +$1 [-$122…+$1,201] · 67% credit	75% surv 67%	+$5,845 SAFE cap gain +$24,425
budget: banked $175 debit $174 (99% used ≈ 2.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $7,004/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$375/mo
vs 50% target ($3,696/mo)	-90%
vs normal income ($7,393/mo)	5% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$375/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($5,525)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($55,525)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-18,668

Spot \ Time	≥ 8d left	3-7d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $34.65	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $35-35.10	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $35.10	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$35.00 (2.2σ)	$175	$212	+$18,792	+$0
+2.5%	$35.88 (2.4σ)	$-2,012	$-108	+$18,473	+$0
+5%	$36.75 (2.6σ)	$-4,200	$-427	+$18,153	+$0
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (3.4σ)	$-11,600	$-1,507	+$17,073	+$0

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$31	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.57/sh	+$1,430 cycle +$1,580 [+$1,318…+$2,086] · 100% credit	67% surv 53%	-$6,923 NOT cap gain +$11,657
Max even-money escape in the band	~$35	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.19/sh	+$467 cycle +$617 [+$81…+$1,219] · 77% credit	78% surv 73%	+$56 SAFE cap gain +$18,636
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$32	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.13/sh	+$327 cycle +$477 [+$26…+$900] · 76% credit	72% surv 63%	-$5,422 NOT cap gain +$13,159
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$36	2 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.03/sh	-$75 cycle +$75 [-$542…+$655] · 53% credit	80% surv 77%	+$1,649 SAFE cap gain +$20,230
budget: banked $150 debit $75 (50% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$75 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $3,460/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$643/mo
vs 50% target ($3,696/mo)	-83%
vs normal income ($7,393/mo)	9% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$643/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,717
… as % of IC ($5,525)	175.9%
… as % of ML ($55,525)	17.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-18,643

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $30.69	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $31-31.09	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $31.09	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$31.00 (1.7σ)	$150	$-8,353	+$10,227	-$25
+2.5%	$31.77 (2.0σ)	$-1,787	$-8,636	+$9,944	-$1,962
+5%	$32.55 (2.2σ)	$-3,725	$-8,919	+$9,661	-$3,900
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (4.8σ)	$-21,625	$-11,532	+$7,048	-$10,025

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (18 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$28	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.51/sh	+$909 cycle +$1,485 [+$636…+$1,035] · 98% credit	67% surv 53%	-$12,307 NOT cap gain +$6,274
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$31	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.33/sh	+$590 cycle +$1,166 [+$132…+$696] · 84% credit	77% surv 70%	-$6,819 NOT cap gain +$11,762
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$30	18 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.07/sh	+$120 cycle +$696 [-$275…+$166] · 41% credit	73% surv 64%	-$10,491 NOT cap gain +$8,089
Max even-money escape in the band	~$32	2 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.05/sh	+$94 cycle +$670 [-$458…+$164] · 35% credit	79% surv 75%	-$5,180 NOT cap gain +$13,401
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$33	2 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.14/sh	-$253 cycle +$323 [-$867…-$206] · 17% credit	82% surv 79%	-$3,392 NOT cap gain +$15,189
budget: banked $576 debit $253 (44% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$323 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $1,896/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell

Gross FIGHT income	$2,469/mo
vs 50% target ($3,696/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($7,393/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,574/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,028
… as % of IC ($5,525)	199.6%
… as % of ML ($55,525)	19.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (18 ct)	$-13,450

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $28.21	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $28-28.86	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $28.86	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$28.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$576	$-13,216	+$5,365	+$450
+2.5%	$29.21 (1.0σ)	$-706	$-12,977	+$5,603	-$832
+5%	$29.93 (1.3σ)	$-1,989	$-12,738	+$5,842	-$2,115
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (4.8σ)	$-19,602	$-12,757	+$5,823	-$11,250

Gross FIGHT income	$3,844/mo
vs 50% target ($3,696/mo)	+4%
vs normal income ($7,393/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,874/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$15,081
… as % of IC ($5,525)	273.0%
… as % of ML ($55,525)	27.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.0 mo
Surgical close (23 ct)	$-17,243

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $27.72	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $28-28.45	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $28.45	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$28.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$897	$-13,997	+$4,583	+$736
+2.5%	$28.70 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-713	$-14,113	+$4,468	-$874
+5%	$29.40 (1.1σ)	$-2,323	$-14,228	+$4,352	-$2,484
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (4.8σ)	$-26,036	$-16,871	+$1,709	-$15,364