FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $40,864/mo (46% of normal target)
| POSITION | INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST | RECOVERY | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortress | Ct | Price | CC-SS | 🛡 Safe yield | 33% normal | 50% normal | 100% normal | Banked | Cap @ CC-SS | ↑ whole |
| BMNR-LC10 ↗ RetireInc:7291 · Next Fri | 50 | $15.70 | $19.75 | 50 × $19 $350 cyc · $1,500/mo 94% surv · T:13% | 🎯 42 × $17.50 $672 cyc · $2,880/mo 85% surv · T:33% | 43 × $17 $1,032 cyc · $4,423/mo 78% surv · T:45% | 39 × $16 $2,028 cyc · $8,691/mo 59% surv · T:85% | - | -$8,796 (28.1% IC) | 25.8% |
| COPX ↗ ⚐ Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 1 | $74.04 | $94.85 | 1 × $8414d $14 cyc · $30/mo 91% surv · T:19% | 🎯 1 × $78 $48 cyc · $206/mo 80% surv · T:41% | 1 × $77 $69 cyc · $296/mo 74% surv · T:53% | 1 × $75 $131 cyc · $561/mo 59% surv · T:84% | $35 | -$1,637 (57.6% IC) | 28.1% |
| ETHA ↗ 🎯 cover hedge 37 × $15 Main:1299 · Next Fri | 50 | $13.88 | $18.15 | — | 28 × $14.50 $308 cyc · $1,320/mo 78% surv · T:45% | 42 × $14.50 $462 cyc · $1,980/mo 78% surv · T:45% | 33 × $14 $924 cyc · $3,960/mo 57% surv · T:88% | - | -$11,524 (53.2% IC) | 30.8% |
| MARA-LC40 ↗ ⚐⚡ER 12d Main:1299 · Next Fri | 200 | $10.83 | $13.69 | 200 × $13 $1,000 cyc · $4,286/mo 93% surv · T:15% | 🎯 139 × $12 $2,224 cyc · $9,531/mo 81% surv · T:49% | 120 × $11.50 $3,360 cyc · $14,400/mo 71% surv · T:61% | 149 × $11 $6,705 cyc · $28,736/mo 57% surv · T:89% | - | -$21,217 (192.9% IC) | 26.4% |
| BBC · LEGACY STRUCTURES known structurally inefficient and not being restructured; the plan is CC income while the underlying repairs, so treat any REBUILD / restructure verdict on these as informational | ||||||||||
| BMNR-LC23-1299 ↗ Main:1299 · Next Fri | 75 | $15.70 | $36.94 | 75 × $19 $525 cyc · $2,250/mo 94% surv · T:13% | 🎯 63 × $17.50 $1,008 cyc · $4,320/mo 85% surv · T:31% | 64 × $17 $1,536 cyc · $6,583/mo 78% surv · T:45% | 59 × $16 $3,068 cyc · $13,149/mo 59% surv · T:85% | - | -$121,470 (0.0% IC) | 135.3% |
| BMNR-LC23-1782 ↗ Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 50 | $15.70 | $20.83 | 50 × $19 $350 cyc · $1,500/mo 94% surv · T:13% | 39 × $16 $2,028 cyc · $8,691/mo 59% surv · T:85% | 🎯 41 × $15.50 $3,075 cyc · $13,179/mo 47% surv · T:99+% | — | - | -$18,797 (0.0% IC) | 32.7% |
| MARA-LC20-1782 ↗⚡ER 12d 🎯 hedge 1 × $17.50 Joint:1782 · Next Fri | 10 | $10.83 | $19.16 | 10 × $13 $50 cyc · $214/mo 93% surv · T:15% | — | — | — | - | -$165 (3.8% IC) | 76.9% |
| TOTAL (7) | 436 | following every 🎯 $7,176 cyc · $30,754/mo | $2,289 cyc · $9,780/mo 6 of 7 | $6,288 cyc · $26,949/mo 6 of 7 | $9,534 cyc · $40,860/mo 6 of 7 | $12,856 cyc · $55,097/mo 5 of 7 | $35 | -$183,607 | ||
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.29/sh | +$1,433 cycle +$1,783 [+$1,483…+$2,232] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$2,479 NOT cap gain +$20,593 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.15/sh | +$765 cycle +$1,115 [+$647…+$1,510] · 94% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$1,437 NOT cap gain +$21,635 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.05/sh | +$265 cycle +$615 [-$170…+$1,084] · 70% credit | 81% surv 76% | +$9,464 SAFE cap gain +$32,535 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$22 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.07/sh | -$339 cycle +$11 [-$874…+$455] · 39% credit | 83% surv 79% | +$11,709 SAFE cap gain +$34,781 |
| budget: banked $350 debit $339 (97% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$11 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $3,346/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,339/mo) | -65% |
| vs normal income ($8,679/mo) | 17% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $814/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$3,422 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 11.0% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 4.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (50 ct) | $-23,097 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $18.81 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $19-19.07 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $19.07 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $19.00 (2.0σ) | $350 | $-3,912 | +$19,160 | +$7,950 |
| +2.5% | $19.47 (2.2σ) | $-2,025 | $-3,579 | +$19,492 | +$7,950 |
| +5% | $19.95 (2.5σ) | $-4,400 | $-3,247 | +$19,825 | +$7,950 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (42 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.31/sh | +$1,299 cycle +$1,971 [+$1,070…+$1,588] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$10,857 NOT cap gain +$12,215 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$698 cycle +$1,370 [+$58…+$876] · 77% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$2,637 NOT cap gain +$20,434 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$278 cycle +$950 [-$436…+$415] · 49% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$607 NOT cap gain +$22,464 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$23 cycle +$695 [-$449…+$148] · 35% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$8,213 NOT cap gain +$14,859 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.12/sh | -$506 cycle +$166 [-$1,386…-$413] · 14% credit | 85% surv 83% | +$3,508 SAFE cap gain +$26,580 |
| budget: banked $672 debit $506 (75% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$166 cash · rolled 42 ct earn ≈ $2,284/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,880/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,339/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($8,679/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,017/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,796 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 28.1% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 12.3% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.0 mo |
| Surgical close (42 ct) | $-19,422 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.67 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.67 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.50 (1.1σ) | $672 | $-12,156 | +$10,916 | +$756 |
| +2.5% | $17.94 (1.3σ) | $-1,166 | $-11,849 | +$11,222 | +$756 |
| +5% | $18.38 (1.6σ) | $-3,003 | $-11,543 | +$11,529 | +$756 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (43 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.32/sh | +$1,372 cycle +$2,404 [+$1,104…+$1,501] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$12,922 NOT cap gain +$10,150 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$720 cycle +$1,752 [-$67…+$696] · 73% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$4,523 NOT cap gain +$18,548 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$293 cycle +$1,325 [-$578…+$228] · 38% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$2,451 NOT cap gain +$20,621 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.00/sh | +$15 cycle +$1,047 [-$556…-$17] · 24% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$10,229 NOT cap gain +$12,843 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.11/sh | -$462 cycle +$570 [-$1,529…-$586] · 8% credit | 85% surv 83% | +$1,794 SAFE cap gain +$24,866 |
| budget: banked $1,032 debit $462 (45% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$570 cash · rolled 43 ct earn ≈ $2,276/mo while parked; 7 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,423/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,339/mo) | +2% |
| vs normal income ($8,679/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,457/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$10,812 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 34.6% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 15.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (43 ct) | $-19,885 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,032 | $-14,301 | +$8,828 | -$989 |
| +2.5% | $17.42 (1.0σ) | $-795 | $-14,003 | +$9,126 | -$989 |
| +5% | $17.85 (1.3σ) | $-2,623 | $-13,706 | +$9,423 | -$989 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (39 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.32/sh | +$1,264 cycle +$3,292 [+$907…+$1,124] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$17,541 NOT cap gain +$5,530 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.31/sh | +$1,192 cycle +$3,220 [+$389…+$896] · 91% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$10,534 NOT cap gain +$12,538 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$273 cycle +$2,301 [-$750…-$102] · 19% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$6,853 NOT cap gain +$16,219 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$86 cycle +$2,114 [-$557…-$160] · 13% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$14,159 NOT cap gain +$8,912 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.30/sh | -$1,178 cycle +$850 [-$2,687…-$1,686] | 91% surv 91% | +$5,497 SAFE cap gain +$28,568 |
| budget: banked $2,028 debit $1,178 (58% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$850 cash · rolled 39 ct earn ≈ $1,004/mo while parked; 11 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,691/mo |
| vs 50% target ($4,339/mo) | +100% |
| vs normal income ($8,679/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $9,137/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,614 |
| … as % of IC ($31,250) | 40.4% |
| … as % of ML ($71,250) | 17.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.5 mo |
| Surgical close (39 ct) | $-18,093 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.84 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.55 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.55 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,028 | $-18,806 | +$4,266 | +$156 |
| +2.5% | $16.40 (≤1σ, normal week) | $468 | $-18,086 | +$4,986 | -$1,404 |
| +5% | $16.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,092 | $-17,366 | +$5,706 | -$2,964 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $17.13 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-2,379 | $-16,915 | +$6,157 | -$3,744 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (75 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.29/sh | +$2,149 cycle +$2,674 [+$2,189…+$3,361] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$141,770 NOT cap gain +$27,374 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.15/sh | +$1,147 cycle +$1,672 [+$941…+$2,290] · 92% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$140,526 NOT cap gain +$28,618 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.05/sh | +$398 cycle +$923 [-$656…+$1,681] · 66% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$126,305 NOT cap gain +$42,839 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$22 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.07/sh | -$509 cycle +$16 [-$1,778…+$733] · 41% credit | 83% surv 79% | -$123,469 NOT cap gain +$45,675 |
| budget: banked $525 debit $509 (97% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$16 cash · rolled 75 ct earn ≈ $5,019/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $2,250/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,509/mo) | -65% |
| vs normal income ($13,018/mo) | 17% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $2,250/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$134,032 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($75,959) | 176.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 10.3 mo |
| Surgical close (75 ct) | $-169,182 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $18.81 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $19-19.07 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $19.07 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $19.00 (2.0σ) | $525 | $-143,919 | +$25,226 | +$225 |
| +2.5% | $19.47 (2.2σ) | $-3,037 | $-143,926 | +$25,218 | -$3,337 |
| +5% | $19.95 (2.5σ) | $-6,600 | $-143,933 | +$25,211 | -$6,900 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (13.8σ) | $-150,450 | $-144,221 | +$24,924 | -$29,775 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (63 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.31/sh | +$1,948 cycle +$2,956 [+$1,633…+$2,385] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$152,667 NOT cap gain +$16,477 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$1,047 cycle +$2,055 [+$161…+$1,395] · 80% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$140,095 NOT cap gain +$29,049 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$418 cycle +$1,426 [-$593…+$726] · 50% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$136,982 NOT cap gain +$32,162 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$34 cycle +$1,042 [-$613…+$286] · 37% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$148,593 NOT cap gain +$20,551 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.12/sh | -$759 cycle +$249 [-$2,021…-$571] · 14% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$130,674 NOT cap gain +$38,470 |
| budget: banked $1,008 debit $759 (75% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$249 cash · rolled 63 ct earn ≈ $3,426/mo while parked; 12 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,320/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,509/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($13,018/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,389/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$121,470 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($75,959) | 159.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.3 mo |
| Surgical close (63 ct) | $-142,144 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $17.32 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.67 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.67 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.50 (1.1σ) | $1,008 | $-154,615 | +$14,529 | +$756 |
| +2.5% | $17.94 (1.3σ) | $-1,748 | $-154,097 | +$15,047 | -$2,000 |
| +5% | $18.38 (1.6σ) | $-4,504 | $-153,578 | +$15,566 | -$4,756 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (13.8σ) | $-135,261 | $-148,340 | +$20,805 | -$33,894 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (64 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.31/sh | +$1,995 cycle +$3,531 [+$1,570…+$2,310] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$155,839 NOT cap gain +$13,305 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.17/sh | +$1,063 cycle +$2,599 [+$7…+$1,129] · 75% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$143,260 NOT cap gain +$25,884 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$19 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$427 cycle +$1,963 [-$753…+$460] · 41% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$140,154 NOT cap gain +$28,990 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$18 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$62 cycle +$1,598 [-$699…+$104] · 30% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$151,746 NOT cap gain +$17,398 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$20 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.12/sh | -$757 cycle +$779 [-$2,199…-$789] · 9% credit | 85% surv 83% | -$133,852 NOT cap gain +$35,292 |
| budget: banked $1,536 debit $757 (49% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$779 cash · rolled 64 ct earn ≈ $3,388/mo while parked; 11 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $6,583/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,509/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($13,018/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $6,646/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$126,086 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($75,959) | 166.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.7 mo |
| Surgical close (64 ct) | $-144,400 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $16.83 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $17-17.25 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $17.25 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $17.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,536 | $-157,834 | +$11,348 | +$1,280 |
| +2.5% | $17.42 (1.0σ) | $-1,184 | $-157,373 | +$11,809 | -$1,440 |
| +5% | $17.85 (1.3σ) | $-3,904 | $-156,912 | +$12,270 | -$4,160 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (13.8σ) | $-140,096 | $-151,566 | +$17,616 | -$37,120 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (59 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.32/sh | +$1,913 cycle +$4,981 [+$1,367…+$1,664] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$161,854 NOT cap gain +$7,290 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.31/sh | +$1,803 cycle +$4,871 [+$588…+$1,309] · 91% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$152,233 NOT cap gain +$16,911 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$413 cycle +$3,481 [-$1,115…-$180] · 17% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$146,138 NOT cap gain +$23,006 |
| SS $39 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$130 cycle +$3,198 [-$831…-$257] · 12% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$157,648 NOT cap gain +$11,496 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.30/sh | -$1,782 cycle +$1,286 [-$4,033…-$2,583] | 91% surv 91% | -$125,878 NOT cap gain +$43,266 |
| budget: banked $3,068 debit $1,782 (58% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,286 cash · rolled 59 ct earn ≈ $1,519/mo while parked; 16 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $13,149/mo |
| vs 50% target ($6,509/mo) | +102% |
| vs normal income ($13,018/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $13,240/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$120,484 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($75,959) | 158.6% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 9.3 mo |
| Surgical close (59 ct) | $-133,208 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.84 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.55 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.55 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,068 | $-163,767 | +$5,378 | +$2,832 |
| +2.5% | $16.40 (≤1σ, normal week) | $708 | $-163,133 | +$6,012 | +$472 |
| +5% | $16.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,652 | $-162,499 | +$6,646 | -$1,888 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $39.13 (13.8σ) | $-133,399 | $-152,914 | +$16,231 | -$38,468 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (50 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.29/sh | +$1,433 cycle +$1,783 [+$1,483…+$2,232] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$5,960 NOT cap gain +$18,250 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$19 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.15/sh | +$765 cycle +$1,115 [+$647…+$1,510] · 94% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$5,131 NOT cap gain +$19,079 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.05/sh | +$265 cycle +$615 [-$170…+$1,084] · 70% credit | 81% surv 76% | +$4,350 SAFE cap gain +$28,559 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$22 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.07/sh | -$339 cycle +$11 [-$874…+$455] · 39% credit | 83% surv 79% | +$6,240 SAFE cap gain +$30,450 |
| budget: banked $350 debit $339 (97% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$11 cash · rolled 50 ct earn ≈ $3,346/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,500/mo |
| vs 50% target ($13,018/mo) | -88% |
| vs normal income ($26,036/mo) | 6% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,500/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$8,823 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($52,353) | 16.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.3 mo |
| Surgical close (50 ct) | $-24,235 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $18.81 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $19-19.07 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $19.07 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $19.00 (2.0σ) | $350 | $-7,393 | +$16,817 | +$150 |
| +2.5% | $19.47 (2.2σ) | $-2,025 | $-7,397 | +$16,812 | -$2,225 |
| +5% | $19.95 (2.5σ) | $-4,400 | $-7,402 | +$16,808 | -$4,600 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (8.6σ) | $-56,100 | $-7,505 | +$16,704 | -$19,850 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (39 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.32/sh | +$1,264 cycle +$3,292 [+$907…+$1,124] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | -$19,376 NOT cap gain +$4,833 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$17 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.31/sh | +$1,192 cycle +$3,220 [+$389…+$896] · 91% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$12,962 NOT cap gain +$11,248 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.07/sh | +$273 cycle +$2,301 [-$750…-$102] · 19% credit | 82% surv 77% | -$8,891 NOT cap gain +$15,319 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$17 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$86 cycle +$2,114 [-$557…-$160] · 13% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$16,562 NOT cap gain +$7,647 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.30/sh | -$1,178 cycle +$850 [-$2,687…-$1,686] | 91% surv 91% | +$4,629 SAFE cap gain +$28,838 |
| budget: banked $2,028 debit $1,178 (58% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$850 cash · rolled 39 ct earn ≈ $1,004/mo while parked; 11 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $8,691/mo |
| vs 50% target ($13,018/mo) | -33% |
| vs normal income ($26,036/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $8,754/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$16,827 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($52,353) | 32.1% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.6 mo |
| Surgical close (39 ct) | $-18,981 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.84 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $16-16.55 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.55 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $16.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,028 | $-20,641 | +$3,569 | +$1,872 |
| +2.5% | $16.40 (≤1σ, normal week) | $468 | $-20,205 | +$4,005 | +$312 |
| +5% | $16.80 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,092 | $-19,769 | +$4,441 | -$1,248 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (8.6σ) | $-53,703 | $-13,083 | +$11,126 | -$25,428 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (41 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.33/sh | +$1,356 cycle +$4,431 | 68% surv 53% | -$19,742 NOT cap gain +$4,467 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$16 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.12/sh | +$488 cycle +$3,563 | 72% surv 62% | -$19,113 NOT cap gain +$5,096 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$18 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.03/sh | +$111 cycle +$3,186 | 83% surv 79% | -$9,511 NOT cap gain +$14,699 |
| SS $30 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$21 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.30/sh | -$1,236 cycle +$1,839 | 92% surv 92% | +$4,112 SAFE cap gain +$28,322 |
| budget: banked $3,075 debit $1,236 (40% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,839 cash · rolled 41 ct earn ≈ $936/mo while parked; 9 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $13,179/mo |
| vs 50% target ($13,018/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($26,036/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $13,230/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$18,797 |
| … as % of IC ($0) | 0.0% |
| … as % of ML ($52,353) | 35.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (41 ct) | $-19,975 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $15.35 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $15-16.28 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $16.28 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $15.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,075 | $-21,140 | +$3,120 | +$2,870 |
| +2.5% | $15.89 (≤1σ, normal week) | $1,486 | $-21,743 | +$2,517 | +$1,281 |
| +5% | $16.28 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-103 | $-21,398 | +$2,862 | -$308 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $30.29 (8.6σ) | $-57,564 | $-15,486 | +$8,774 | -$27,880 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$84 | 7 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.42/sh | +$42 cycle +$56 [+$34…+$83] · 97% credit | 65% surv 52% | -$1,031 NOT cap gain +$956 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$85 | 7 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.22/sh | +$22 cycle +$36 [+$14…+$59] · 91% credit | 69% surv 57% | -$965 NOT cap gain +$1,022 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$87 | 14 Aug 2026 | 21d left | +$0.04/sh | +$4 cycle +$18 [-$15…+$45] · 62% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$803 NOT cap gain +$1,184 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $30/mo |
| vs 50% target ($208/mo) | -86% |
| vs normal income ($417/mo) | 7% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $30/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,071 |
| … as % of IC ($2,840) | 37.7% |
| … as % of ML ($5,040) | 21.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.6 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-2,017 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 8d left | 3-7d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $83.16 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $83-84.44 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $84.44 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $84.00 (1.5σ) | $14 | $-1,074 | +$913 | +$1 |
| +2.5% | $86.10 (1.8σ) | $-196 | $-1,094 | +$893 | -$99 |
| +5% | $88.20 (2.2σ) | $-406 | $-1,114 | +$873 | -$99 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (2.9σ) | $-926 | $-1,165 | +$822 | -$99 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$78 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.65/sh | +$65 cycle +$113 [+$43…+$82] · 98% credit | 65% surv 52% | -$1,517 NOT cap gain +$470 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$82 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.42/sh | +$42 cycle +$90 [+$5…+$55] · 80% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$1,182 NOT cap gain +$805 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$79 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.06/sh | +$6 cycle +$54 [-$24…+$14] · 40% credit | 70% surv 61% | -$1,443 NOT cap gain +$544 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$83 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.08/sh | +$8 cycle +$56 [-$35…+$16] · 38% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$1,080 NOT cap gain +$907 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$86 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.48/sh | -$48 cycle +$0 [-$101…-$43] · 8% credit | 83% surv 80% | -$911 NOT cap gain +$1,077 |
| budget: banked $48 debit $48 (100% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$0 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $136/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $206/mo |
| vs 50% target ($208/mo) | -1% |
| vs normal income ($417/mo) | 49% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $206/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,637 |
| … as % of IC ($2,840) | 57.6% |
| … as % of ML ($5,040) | 32.5% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.9 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-1,997 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $77.22 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $77-78.58 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $78.58 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $78.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $48 | $-1,582 | +$406 | +$35 |
| +2.5% | $79.95 (1.3σ) | $-147 | $-1,600 | +$387 | -$160 |
| +5% | $81.90 (1.7σ) | $-342 | $-1,619 | +$368 | -$355 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (4.2σ) | $-1,492 | $-1,731 | +$256 | -$665 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$77 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.63/sh | +$63 cycle +$132 [+$36…+$67] · 98% credit | 65% surv 52% | -$1,588 NOT cap gain +$399 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$81 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.38/sh | +$38 cycle +$107 [-$8…+$36] · 65% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$1,255 NOT cap gain +$732 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$78 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.05/sh | +$5 cycle +$74 [-$33…+$2] · 26% credit | 70% surv 61% | -$1,514 NOT cap gain +$473 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$82 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.04/sh | +$4 cycle +$73 [-$48…-$1] · 24% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$1,153 NOT cap gain +$834 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$85 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.50/sh | -$50 cycle +$19 [-$115…-$61] · 5% credit | 83% surv 81% | -$982 NOT cap gain +$1,005 |
| budget: banked $69 debit $50 (73% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$19 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $128/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $296/mo |
| vs 50% target ($208/mo) | +42% |
| vs normal income ($417/mo) | 71% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $296/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,716 |
| … as % of IC ($2,840) | 60.4% |
| … as % of ML ($5,040) | 34.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.1 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-2,007 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $76.23 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $76-77.89 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $77.89 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $77.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $69 | $-1,651 | +$336 | +$56 |
| +2.5% | $78.92 (1.1σ) | $-123 | $-1,669 | +$318 | -$136 |
| +5% | $80.85 (1.5σ) | $-316 | $-1,688 | +$299 | -$329 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (4.2σ) | $-1,571 | $-1,810 | +$177 | -$744 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$75 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.59/sh | +$59 cycle +$190 [+$24…+$46] · 95% credit | 65% surv 52% | -$1,710 NOT cap gain +$277 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$78 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.59/sh | +$59 cycle +$190 [+$3…+$38] · 77% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$1,443 NOT cap gain +$544 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$79 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.30/sh | +$30 cycle +$161 [-$33…+$7] · 31% credit | 75% surv 69% | -$1,382 NOT cap gain +$605 |
| SS $93 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$76 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$2 cycle +$133 [-$48…-$16] · 12% credit | 70% surv 61% | -$1,636 NOT cap gain +$352 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$83 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | -$1.26/sh | -$126 cycle +$5 [-$238…-$166] | 91% surv 90% | -$1,176 NOT cap gain +$811 |
| budget: banked $131 debit $126 (96% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$5 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $57/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $561/mo |
| vs 50% target ($208/mo) | +169% |
| vs normal income ($417/mo) | 135% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $561/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$1,854 |
| … as % of IC ($2,840) | 65.3% |
| … as % of ML ($5,040) | 36.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 4.4 mo |
| Surgical close (1 ct) | $-1,997 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $74.25 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $74-76.41 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $76.41 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $75.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $131 | $-1,769 | +$218 | +$118 |
| +2.5% | $76.88 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-56 | $-1,788 | +$200 | -$70 |
| +5% | $78.75 (1.0σ) | $-244 | $-1,806 | +$181 | -$257 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $93.40 (4.2σ) | $-1,709 | $-1,948 | +$39 | -$882 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (28 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.20/sh | +$560 cycle +$868 [+$479…+$625] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$17,876 NOT cap gain +$4,074 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.14/sh | +$406 cycle +$714 [+$305…+$448] · 99% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$17,447 NOT cap gain +$4,503 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$224 cycle +$532 [+$38…+$250] · 82% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$15,094 NOT cap gain +$6,856 |
| SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.06/sh | -$169 cycle +$139 [-$430…-$162] · 10% credit | 80% surv 77% | -$12,952 NOT cap gain +$8,998 |
| budget: banked $308 debit $169 (55% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$139 cash · rolled 28 ct earn ≈ $1,019/mo while parked; 22 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,320/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,955/mo) | -32% |
| vs normal income ($3,911/mo) | 34% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $882/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$9,925 |
| … as % of IC ($21,650) | 45.8% |
| … as % of ML ($51,650) | 19.2% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 2.5 mo |
| Surgical close (28 ct) | $-12,320 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $14.36 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $308 | $-18,436 | +$3,514 | +$196 |
| +2.5% | $14.86 (1.1σ) | $-707 | $-17,613 | +$4,337 | -$819 |
| +5% | $15.23 (1.5σ) | $-1,722 | $-16,790 | +$5,160 | -$1,834 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $17.33 (3.8σ) | $-7,616 | $-12,012 | +$9,938 | -$7,728 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (42 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.20/sh | +$860 cycle +$1,322 [+$749…+$979] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$17,478 NOT cap gain +$4,472 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$15 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.14/sh | +$598 cycle +$1,060 [+$452…+$689] · 100% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$17,106 NOT cap gain +$4,844 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.09/sh | +$369 cycle +$831 [+$107…+$427] · 86% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$14,800 NOT cap gain +$7,150 |
| SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.05/sh | -$220 cycle +$242 [-$612…-$204] · 12% credit | 81% surv 77% | -$12,854 NOT cap gain +$9,096 |
| budget: banked $462 debit $220 (48% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$242 cash · rolled 42 ct earn ≈ $1,604/mo while parked; 8 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $1,980/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,955/mo) | +1% |
| vs normal income ($3,911/mo) | 51% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $1,422/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$14,888 |
| … as % of IC ($21,650) | 68.8% |
| … as % of ML ($51,650) | 28.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.8 mo |
| Surgical close (42 ct) | $-18,480 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $14.36 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.62 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.62 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $462 | $-18,354 | +$3,663 | +$294 |
| +2.5% | $14.86 (1.1σ) | $-1,060 | $-18,039 | +$3,978 | -$1,228 |
| +5% | $15.23 (1.5σ) | $-2,583 | $-17,724 | +$4,294 | -$2,751 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $17.33 (3.8σ) | $-11,424 | $-15,892 | +$6,125 | -$11,592 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (33 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.19/sh | +$617 cycle +$1,541 [+$467…+$549] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$19,758 NOT cap gain +$2,192 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$14 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$852 cycle +$1,776 [+$634…+$758] · 100% credit | 68% surv 55% | -$18,940 NOT cap gain +$3,010 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.13/sh | +$436 cycle +$1,360 [+$250…+$357] · 99% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$19,356 NOT cap gain +$2,594 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.06/sh | +$204 cycle +$1,128 [-$139…+$60] · 47% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$17,053 NOT cap gain +$4,897 |
| SS $17 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$16 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.20/sh | -$650 cycle +$274 [-$1,314…-$889] | 91% surv 91% | -$10,302 NOT cap gain +$11,648 |
| budget: banked $924 debit $650 (70% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$274 cash · rolled 33 ct earn ≈ $336/mo while parked; 17 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $3,960/mo |
| vs 50% target ($1,955/mo) | +103% |
| vs normal income ($3,911/mo) | 101% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $3,479/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,787 |
| … as % of IC ($21,650) | 59.1% |
| … as % of ML ($51,650) | 24.8% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 3.3 mo |
| Surgical close (33 ct) | $-14,520 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $13.86 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $14-14.29 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $14.29 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $14.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $924 | $-20,375 | +$1,575 | +$792 |
| +2.5% | $14.35 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-231 | $-19,755 | +$2,195 | -$363 |
| +5% | $14.70 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,386 | $-19,136 | +$2,814 | -$1,518 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $17.33 (3.8σ) | $-10,065 | $-14,481 | +$7,469 | -$10,197 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.26/sh | +$257 cycle +$307 [+$235…+$377] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$4,577 NOT cap gain +$1,861 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.08/sh | +$82 cycle +$132 [+$17…+$195] · 77% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$3,198 NOT cap gain +$3,240 |
| SS $24 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.04/sh | +$36 cycle +$86 [-$13…+$119] · 69% credit | 73% surv 65% | -$4,319 NOT cap gain +$2,119 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $214/mo |
| vs 50% target ($3,589/mo) | -94% |
| vs normal income ($7,179/mo) | 3% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $214/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$6,108 |
| … as % of IC ($4,330) | 141.1% |
| … as % of ML ($11,330) | 53.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.9 mo |
| Surgical close (10 ct) | $-6,443 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.87 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-13.05 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.05 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.00 (1.6σ) | $50 | $-4,834 | +$1,604 | -$10 |
| +2.5% | $13.32 (1.8σ) | $-275 | $-4,927 | +$1,511 | -$335 |
| +5% | $13.65 (2.0σ) | $-600 | $-5,019 | +$1,419 | -$660 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $24.33 (9.7σ) | $-11,280 | $-8,052 | -$1,614 | -$7,010 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (200 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.26/sh | +$5,147 cycle +$6,147 [+$4,744…+$7,655] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | +$3,914 SAFE cap gain +$9,749 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.08/sh | +$1,645 cycle +$2,645 [+$203…+$4,054] · 78% credit | 81% surv 76% | +$4,015 SAFE cap gain +$9,849 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$14 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.04/sh | +$714 cycle +$1,714 [-$361…+$2,481] · 70% credit | 73% surv 65% | +$593 SAFE cap gain +$6,428 |
| Gross FIGHT income | $4,286/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,357/mo) | -70% |
| vs normal income ($28,714/mo) | 15% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $4,286/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$12,729 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 115.7% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 115.7% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.4 mo |
| Surgical close (200 ct) | $-5,935 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $12.87 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $13-13.05 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $13.05 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $13.00 (1.6σ) | $1,000 | $-1,232 | +$4,602 | -$200 |
| +2.5% | $13.32 (1.8σ) | $-5,500 | $-7,193 | -$1,358 | -$6,700 |
| +5% | $13.65 (2.0σ) | $-12,000 | $-13,153 | -$7,319 | -$13,200 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (21.4σ) | $-550,000 | $-506,499 | -$500,665 | -$140,200 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (139 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.32/sh | +$4,389 cycle +$6,613 [+$3,239…+$5,130] · 99% credit | 77% surv 69% | +$5,028 SAFE cap gain +$10,863 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.23/sh | +$3,154 cycle +$5,378 [+$2,325…+$3,826] · 99% credit | 67% surv 53% | +$1,851 SAFE cap gain +$7,686 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$14 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.01/sh | +$205 cycle +$2,429 [-$1,651…+$508] · 36% credit | 82% surv 78% | +$2,504 SAFE cap gain +$8,339 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$13 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.01/sh | +$72 cycle +$2,296 [-$1,212…+$298] · 34% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$118 NOT cap gain +$5,716 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | -$0.15/sh | -$2,096 cycle +$128 [-$4,507…-$1,933] · 8% credit | 87% surv 85% | +$1,864 SAFE cap gain +$7,698 |
| budget: banked $2,224 debit $2,096 (94% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$128 cash · rolled 139 ct earn ≈ $5,451/mo while parked; 61 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $9,531/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,357/mo) | -34% |
| vs normal income ($28,714/mo) | 33% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $10,054/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$21,217 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 192.9% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 192.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.7 mo |
| Surgical close (139 ct) | $-4,125 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.88 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $12-12.16 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $12.16 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $12.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,224 | $-1,302 | +$4,532 | +$1,390 |
| +2.5% | $12.30 (1.1σ) | $-1,946 | $-4,974 | +$860 | -$2,780 |
| +5% | $12.60 (1.3σ) | $-6,116 | $-8,646 | -$2,812 | -$6,950 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (21.4σ) | $-394,621 | $-476,109 | -$470,275 | -$109,810 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (120 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.21/sh | +$2,522 cycle +$5,882 [+$1,806…+$2,611] · 100% credit | 70% surv 57% | +$1,913 SAFE cap gain +$7,748 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$12 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.21/sh | +$2,570 cycle +$5,930 [+$1,693…+$2,645] · 99% credit | 67% surv 53% | +$1,688 SAFE cap gain +$7,522 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$13 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.27/sh | +$3,274 cycle +$6,634 [+$2,051…+$3,250] · 99% credit | 77% surv 70% | +$4,325 SAFE cap gain +$10,160 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$13 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$788 cycle +$4,148 [-$803…+$539] · 41% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$1,839 SAFE cap gain +$7,674 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$15 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.25/sh | -$2,976 cycle +$384 [-$5,533…-$3,595] | 91% surv 91% | +$2,226 SAFE cap gain +$8,060 |
| budget: banked $3,360 debit $2,976 (89% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$384 cash · rolled 120 ct earn ≈ $3,683/mo while parked; 80 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $14,400/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,357/mo) | +0% |
| vs normal income ($28,714/mo) | 50% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $15,086/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$22,877 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 208.0% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 208.0% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 0.8 mo |
| Surgical close (120 ct) | $-3,621 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $11.38 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $11-11.79 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $11.79 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $11.50 (≤1σ, normal week) | $3,360 | $-882 | +$4,944 | +$2,640 |
| +2.5% | $11.79 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-90 | $-3,855 | +$1,971 | -$810 |
| +5% | $12.08 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-3,540 | $-6,827 | -$1,002 | -$4,260 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (21.4σ) | $-345,240 | $-465,659 | -$459,833 | -$99,360 |
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (149 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$11 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.19/sh | +$2,822 cycle +$9,527 [+$1,704…+$2,289] · 99% credit | 70% surv 57% | +$4,563 SAFE cap gain +$10,398 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$11 | 31 Jul 2026 | 10d left | +$0.20/sh | +$2,953 cycle +$9,658 [+$1,554…+$2,319] · 98% credit | 67% surv 53% | +$4,412 SAFE cap gain +$10,246 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$12 | 14 Aug 2026 | 24d left | +$0.23/sh | +$3,410 cycle +$10,115 [+$1,361…+$2,497] · 95% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$6,811 SAFE cap gain +$12,645 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$12 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$594 cycle +$7,299 [-$2,044…-$517] · 15% credit | 77% surv 72% | +$3,995 SAFE cap gain +$9,830 |
| SS $41 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$14 | 7 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.25/sh | -$3,775 cycle +$2,930 [-$8,095…-$5,364] | 90% surv 89% | +$2,946 SAFE cap gain +$8,780 |
| budget: banked $6,705 debit $3,775 (56% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,930 cash · rolled 149 ct earn ≈ $3,773/mo while parked; 51 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Gross FIGHT income | $28,736/mo |
| vs 50% target ($14,357/mo) | +100% |
| vs normal income ($28,714/mo) | 100% covered |
| Net income (after hedge) | $29,173/mo |
| Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce) | -$33,323 |
| … as % of IC ($11,000) | 302.9% |
| … as % of ML ($11,000) | 302.9% |
| Recovery months (at normal income) | 1.2 mo |
| Surgical close (149 ct) | $-4,570 |
| Spot \ Time | ≥ 4d left | 3d left | ≤ 2d (expiry) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $10.89 | Do nothing. Theta wins. | Do nothing. | Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle. |
| Pressing the strike $11-11.46 | Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first. | ★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. | Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike. |
| Through breakeven ≥ $11.46 | Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll. | Roll or close immediately; time value is gone. | Close today, or be assigned. |
| Scenario | Spot | CC leg net | Position total | vs today | vs do-nothing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at strike | $11.00 (≤1σ, normal week) | $6,705 | $1,459 | +$7,293 | +$5,811 |
| +2.5% | $11.27 (≤1σ, normal week) | $2,608 | $-2,182 | +$3,652 | +$1,714 |
| +5% | $11.55 (≤1σ, normal week) | $-1,490 | $-5,823 | +$11 | -$2,384 |
| SS (= V-bounce) | $40.55 (21.4σ) | $-433,590 | $-494,588 | -$488,754 | -$128,289 |
The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.
| Fortress | Acct | Call | Spot | Breakeven | Mark | Time value | Status | Action | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | Main:1299 | 3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) | $651.25 | $653.94 | $42.67 | $21.42 | TRIPPED ▸ | 🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🔵 ROLL UP-AND-OUT · the roll pays you $21.25/sh is stuck intrinsic (never decays, tracks META 1:1); only $21.42 is live theta (~$6,427). Waiting harvests the extrinsic but not the cap. This fortress is back above its breakeven, so the cap sits at whole, not at a loss. Rolling $630→$655 banks +$2.80/sh (+$839) and sells fatter forward theta, you relocate the decay to a higher cap, not forfeit it. ▸ Gate on price: hold while META is not making new highs; fire the roll before it breaks $655, above which this credit door closes. 🚪 ESCAPE PATHS (live chain), buy back the 3x $630C at ~$43.50 ($13,050), then: fills assumed a quarter-spread inside bid/ask CREDIT ROLLS (shortest DTE first)
| ||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $368.59 | $378.34 | $0.89 | $0.89 | WATCH ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 8.41 OTM. The $0.89 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,292 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $378.34 (breakeven). 🚪 Escape paths deferred , GLD is a heavy chain and this call is WATCH, not TRIPPED, so it was not fetched to keep the portfolio run fast. For the live roll menu, run fortress_fight.py --tickers GLD. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| COPX | Joint:1782 | 19x $81.5C 17 Jul 2026 (0d) | $74.04 | $81.90 | $0.24 | $0.24 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.46 OTM. The $0.24 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$665 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Spike-vol name into a ~1-session close: arm a conditional buyback near $81.09 to cover a weekend gap, else penny-close and re-sell. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8x $170C 24 Jul 2026 (6d) | $158.90 | $172.10 | $2.58 | $2.58 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.10 OTM. The $2.58 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,637 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $172.10 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5x $116C 24 Jul 2026 (6d) | $96.56 | $117.61 | $1.69 | $1.69 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 19.44 OTM. The $1.69 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$781 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $117.61 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLXY | Main:1299 | 125x $27C 24 Jul 2026 (6d) | $21.91 | $27.11 | $0.17 | $0.17 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 5.09 OTM. The $0.17 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$780 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $27.11 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12x $96.5C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $93.28 | $97.00 | $0.64 | $0.64 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 3.22 OTM. The $0.64 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$543 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $97.00 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50x $37.5C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $36.05 | $37.62 | $0.15 | $0.15 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.45 OTM. The $0.15 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$363 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $37.62 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50x $16.5C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $15.70 | $16.67 | $0.37 | $0.37 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.80 OTM. The $0.37 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$613 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $16.67 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| BMNR-LC23-1782 | Joint:1782 | 100x $16.5C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $15.70 | $16.67 | $0.37 | $0.37 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 0.80 OTM. The $0.37 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,224 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $16.67 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5x $180C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $170.59 | $181.61 | $2.71 | $2.71 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 9.41 OTM. The $2.71 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$778 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $181.61 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| NVDA | Neville:0865 | 5x $217.5C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $205.75 | $219.51 | $0.86 | $0.86 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 11.75 OTM. The $0.86 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$978 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $219.51 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6x $75C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $70.36 | $76.39 | $1.93 | $1.93 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.64 OTM. The $1.93 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$801 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $76.39 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10x $45C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $42.20 | $45.56 | $1.05 | $1.05 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.80 OTM. The $1.05 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$506 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $45.56 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $432.5C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $403.33 | $438.65 | $8.12 | $8.12 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 29.17 OTM. The $8.12 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,831 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $438.65 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| NEM | Main:1299 | 5x $97C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $90.43 | $97.96 | $0.88 | $0.88 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.57 OTM. The $0.88 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$456 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $97.96 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25x $14C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $12.96 | $14.21 | $0.32 | $0.32 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.04 OTM. The $0.32 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$406 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $14.21 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| MDB | Neville:0865 | 1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $317.82 | $355.09 | $3.98 | $3.98 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 32.18 OTM. The $3.98 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$504 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $355.09 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| MARA-LC20-1782 | Joint:1782 | 40x $12C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $10.83 | $12.14 | $0.17 | $0.17 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.17 OTM. The $0.17 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$349 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $12.14 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4x $105C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $94.63 | $106.34 | $0.93 | $0.93 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.37 OTM. The $0.93 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$517 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $106.34 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50x $17.5C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $15.70 | $17.57 | $0.17 | $0.17 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 1.80 OTM. The $0.17 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$120 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $17.57 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1x $480C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $425.14 | $486.90 | $2.67 | $2.67 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 54.86 OTM. The $2.67 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$685 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $486.90 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20x $39C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $34.46 | $39.60 | $0.84 | $0.84 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.54 OTM. The $0.84 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,094 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $39.60 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20x $39C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $34.46 | $39.59 | $0.84 | $0.84 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 4.54 OTM. The $0.84 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,085 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $39.59 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| RIOT | Joint:1782 | 50x $21.5C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $18.95 | $21.78 | $0.18 | $0.18 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.55 OTM. The $0.18 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,150 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $21.78 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $73.44 | $84.96 | $0.73 | $0.73 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 10.56 OTM. The $0.73 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$453 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $84.96 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2x $1040C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $896.93 | $1,047.99 | $10.73 | $10.73 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 143.07 OTM. The $10.73 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,588 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,047.99 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25x $187.5C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $158.90 | $188.61 | $0.49 | $0.49 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 28.60 OTM. The $0.49 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$2,641 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $188.61 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5x $150C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $126.19 | $151.58 | $0.75 | $0.75 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 23.81 OTM. The $0.75 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$766 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $151.58 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $33.42 | $41.03 | $0.38 | $0.38 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 6.58 OTM. The $0.38 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,473 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $41.03 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| MARA-LC20-1299 | Main:1299 | 200x $13C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $10.83 | $13.05 | $0.06 | $0.06 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.17 OTM. The $0.06 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$80 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $13.05 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| MARA-LC25 | Neville:0865 | 250x $13C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $10.83 | $13.04 | $0.06 | $0.06 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 2.17 OTM. The $0.06 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$0 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $13.04 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $34.46 | $42.67 | $0.40 | $0.40 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.54 OTM. The $0.40 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,245 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $42.67 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $34.46 | $42.67 | $0.40 | $0.40 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 7.54 OTM. The $0.40 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$1,245 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $42.67 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10x $122C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) | $94.63 | $122.50 | $0.26 | $0.26 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 27.37 OTM. The $0.26 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$453 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $122.50 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) | $346.36 | $385.01 | $4.89 | $4.89 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 23.64 OTM. The $4.89 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$22,444 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $385.01 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) | $249.16 | $283.10 | $1.46 | $1.46 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 30.84 OTM. The $1.46 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$3,048 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $283.10 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5x $1050C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) | $896.93 | $1,069.99 | $24.66 | $24.66 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 153.07 OTM. The $24.66 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$9,972 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $1,069.99 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| COIN-LC145 | RetireInc:7291 | 3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) | $158.90 | $193.34 | $2.54 | $2.54 | OK ▸ | 🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸ | ||||||||||||||
🟢 HOLD · theta is winning 31.10 OTM. The $2.54 left is all time value, bleeding your way (~$988 kept if it expires quiet). ▸ Penny-buyback at the close, re-sell next cycle. Act early only if it tags $193.34 (breakeven). | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | CC-SS | ↑ whole | Sell strike | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income @ strike | Normal income | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOG-LC340 ↗⚡ER 6d | Neville:0865 | 5 | $346.36 | $374.36 | 8.1% | $375 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · 85% surv | 30% | $1,195 | $5,121/mo (38%) | $13,446/mo | sell 5x $375 CC |
| GOOG-LC310 ↗⚡ER 6d | Joint:1782 | 5 | $346.36 | $338.67 | 0.0% | $370 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · 81% surv | 39% | $1,645 | $7,050/mo (55%) | $12,921/mo | sell 5x $370 CC |
| NOW ↗⚡ER 6d | Main:1299 | 10 | $104.24 | $113.47 | 8.9% | $118 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · 81% surv | 39% | $2,060 | $8,829/mo (56%) | $15,643/mo | sell 10x $118 CC |
| SPY ↗ | Neville:0865 | 12 | $746.69 | $693.62 | 0.0% | $753 21 Jul 2026 (4d) · 80% surv | 40% | $1,104 | $8,280/mo (35%) | $23,451/mo | sell 12x $753 CC |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | Price | BE SS | Headroom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOFI | RetireInc:7291 | 35 | $16.83 | $15.75 | +7.9% |
| Fortress | Acct | Ct | BE SS | Active short calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Joint:1782 | 10 | $256.25 | 10x $280C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) |
| APP | RetireInc:7291 | 1 | $588.00 | 1x $480C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| BMNR-LC25 | Main:1299 | 50 | $44.46 | 66.2% below BE SS |
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25 | $20.74 | 39.4% below BE SS |
| COIN-LC145 | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $182.40 | 3x $190C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) |
| COIN-LC165 | Main:1299 | 8 | $210.90 | 27.0% below BE SS |
| COIN-LC500 | Main:1299 | 25 | $563.00 | 25x $188C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| CRWV | Neville:0865 | 5 | $125.45 | 5x $84C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| DELL | RetireInc:7291 | 3 | $398.00 | 4.5% below BE SS |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10 | $56.15 | 28.2% below BE SS |
| GLD | Main:1299 | 10 | $456.00 | 10x $377C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| GLXY | Main:1299 | 125 | $39.71 | 45.8% below BE SS |
| GOOG-LC300 | Neville:0865 | 15 | $373.00 | 15x $370C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) |
| HIMS | Main:1299 | 15 | $17.47 | 15x $40C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $70.58 | 49.6% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| IGV | Main:1299 | 12 | $96.50 | 4.2% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| INTC | Neville:0865 | 5 | $114.00 | 5x $116C 24 Jul 2026 (6d) |
| IREN-LC25-1299 | Main:1299 | 20 | $44.00 | 23.7% below BE SS |
| IREN-LC25-1782 | Joint:1782 | 20 | $44.00 | 23.7% below BE SS |
| IREN-LC45 | Neville:0865 | 20 | $56.50 | 20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| IREN-LC50 | RetireInc:7291 | 20 | $63.43 | 20x $42C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| MARA-LC20-1299 | Main:1299 | 150 | $22.69 | 51.4% below BE SS |
| MARA-LC25 | Neville:0865 | 250 | $26.40 | 58.2% below BE SS |
| MDB | Neville:0865 | 1 | $362.90 | 1x $350C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| META | Main:1299 | 3 | $601.50 | 3x $630C 31 Jul 2026 (14d) |
| MSTR-LC125 | RetireInc:7291 | 4 | $161.00 | 4x $105C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| MSTR-LC180 | Joint:1782 | 10 | $233.00 | 10x $122C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE] |
| MU-LC880 | Main:1299 | 5 | $1,028.60 | 19.4% below BE SS |
| MU-LC970 | Neville:0865 | 2 | $1,220.00 | 32.1% below BE SS |
| NEM | Main:1299 | 5 | $114.54 | 22.3% below BE SS |
| NVDA | Neville:0865 | 5 | $199.60 | 5x $218C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| QCOM | RetireInc:7291 | 5 | $224.00 | 26.1% below BE SS |
| RIOT | Joint:1782 | 50 | $23.65 | 50x $22C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
| RKLB | RetireInc:7291 | 6 | $141.55 | 52.8% below BE SS |
| SPCX | Neville:0865 | 5 | $186.00 | 5x $150C 24 Jul 2026 (7d) |
Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.
| Predicted survival | N | Avg predicted | Realized OTM rate | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 14 | 58% | 57% | -1pp |
| 60-70% | 46 | 64% | 72% | +8pp |
| 70-80% | 61 | 77% | 95% | +18pp |
| 80-90% | 76 | 85% | 99% | +14pp |
| 90-100% | 130 | 95% | 100% | +5pp |
Touch odds: predicted 35% avg vs realized 24% touch rate over 327 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).
🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 56 real buyback(s) recorded · 13 roll(s), net +$1.01/sh avg.
Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.