FORTRESS REBUILDLifecycle Manager v1.3
⚠️
Earnings conflicts · 7
income being sold or held into an upcoming report · click to jump
PORTFOLIO ROLLUP34 fortress(es)
CAPITAL LOCKED$1,472,985
CLOSE P/L−$854,708
STOCK FLAT−$796,948
STOCK @ CAP−$268,119
CC INC/MO$217,149
CALLS NET 90D /MO+$70,040
🌾 PORTFOLIO HARVEST · 10 roll-down(s) · +$8,230 net credit available · ⚠ 20 stretch · +$19,940
Every row is a fortress whose call is safely dead, sitting on a
SKIP / WAIT decision, where rolling the call DOWN to a closer
strike re-loads income while it stays likely to expire worthless.
Ranked by dollars. Click any row to jump to its roll-down menu.
The binding gate is touch < 40%, which
on this book means every row also has survival ≥
81%. Survival and touch move together, so the
separate survival ≥ 70% floor never binds
while touch is priceable; it is the failsafe for candidates the
first-passage engine cannot price.
Tenors are mixed (1-43d),
so the total is a worklist, not a monthly rate. Every figure is
net of commission at
$0.75/contract/leg x 2 legs
(measured from live fills), which is
$78.00 off $8,308 gross across these rows. Option prices are leg mids, which
is a fair estimate for a roll because it executes as one COMBO order
whose market is far tighter than the two legs' spreads added
together. 23 position(s) had closer, richer strikes held back by the touch ceiling; each one names its best held-back strike on its own card.
| POSITION | CC NOW | ROLL DOWN TO | NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN Main:1299 | $270.00C | $210.00C Nov 20 '26 · 43d | +$2,188 | 82% | 39% |
| SPY Neville:0865 | $800.00C | $793.00C Oct 30 '26 · 22d | +$1,524 | 81% | 38% |
| DELL Main:1299 | $650.00C | $635.00C Oct 30 '26 · 22d | +$1,045 | 81% | 39% |
| SNDK Neville:0865 | $1,900.00C | $1,790.00C Oct 16 '26 · 8d | +$893.50 | 81% | 39% |
| QCOM RetireInc:7291 | $220.00C | $200.00C Nov 06 '26 · 29d | +$735.00 | 84% | 33% |
| MU Main:1299 | $1,150.00C | $1,105.00C Oct 09 '26 · 1d | +$532.50 | 81% | 39% |
| SPCX Neville:0865 | $195.00C | $185.00C Oct 30 '26 · 22d | +$477.50 | 83% | 35% |
| RKLB RetireInc:7291 | $90.00C | $77.00C Oct 16 '26 · 8d | +$342.00 | 81% | 38% |
| AMD Main:1299 | $685.00C | $652.50C Oct 09 '26 · 1d | +$265.00 | 83% | 35% |
| INTC Neville:0865 | $123.00C | $119.00C Oct 16 '26 · 8d | +$227.50 | 82% | 37% |
⚠ STRETCH · 20 roll-down(s) at touch
40-50%
· +$19,940
NOT part of the
+$8,230 above, and not a recommendation. These pay
more because each carries roughly a two-in-five chance of putting
this decision back in front of you before expiry, which is the one
thing a harvest is supposed to avoid. Calibration says to take those
odds at face value: in the two well-sampled IV bands the touch model
is honest (26% predicted vs 26% realized at IV≥75%, n=72). Your
call.
| POSITION | CC NOW | ROLL DOWN TO | NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY Neville:0865 | $800.00C | $789.00C Oct 30 '26 · 22d | +$2,880 | 75% | 50% |
| DELL Main:1299 | $650.00C | $620.00C Oct 30 '26 · 22d | +$2,050 | 76% | 50% |
| COIN Main:1299 | $270.00C | $195.00C Oct 30 '26 · 22d | +$1,568 | 77% | 49% |
| QCOM RetireInc:7291 | $220.00C | $195.00C Nov 13 '26 · 36d | +$1,560 | 77% | 48% |
| SNDK Neville:0865 | $1,900.00C | $1,760.00C Oct 16 '26 · 8d | +$1,394 | 76% | 49% |
| GLD Main:1299 | $409.00C | $403.00C Dec 18 '26 · 71d | +$1,335 | 76% | 49% |
| COIN Main:1299 | $200.00C | $192.50C Oct 23 '26 · 15d | +$1,075 | 78% | 45% |
| MU Main:1299 | $1,150.00C | $1,100.00C Oct 09 '26 · 1d | +$982.50 | 76% | 47% |
| NVDA Main:1299 | $250.00C | $242.50C Oct 21 '26 · 13d | +$965.00 | 76% | 50% |
| IREN Main:1299 | $49.00C | $45.00C Nov 20 '26 · 43d | +$950.00 | 79% | 46% |
| IREN Joint:1782 | $49.00C | $45.00C Nov 20 '26 · 43d | +$950.00 | 79% | 46% |
| MSTR Joint:1782 | $200.00C | $190.00C Jan 15 '27 · 99d | +$660.00 | 80% | 46% |
| MU Neville:0865 | $1,150.00C | $1,130.00C Oct 16 '26 · 8d | +$582.00 | 76% | 49% |
| SPCX Neville:0865 | $195.00C | $177.50C Oct 21 '26 · 13d | +$545.00 | 79% | 43% |
| CRWV Neville:0865 | $100.00C | $93.00C Oct 23 '26 · 15d | +$482.50 | 76% | 50% |
| RKLB RetireInc:7291 | $90.00C | $76.00C Oct 16 '26 · 8d | +$438.00 | 78% | 46% |
| AMZN Joint:1782 | $275.00C | $267.50C Oct 16 '26 · 8d | +$437.50 | 79% | 43% |
| INTC Neville:0865 | $123.00C | $117.00C Oct 16 '26 · 8d | +$402.50 | 77% | 46% |
| AMD Main:1299 | $685.00C | $650.00C Oct 09 '26 · 1d | +$368.00 | 79% | 42% |
| HOOD Joint:1782 | $120.00C | $114.00C Oct 16 '26 · 8d | +$315.00 | 78% | 44% |
BY UNDERLYING · 6 ticker(s) held more than once · tightest: GOOG fully capped at +1.1%
What this answers: if one of these names
rips, how much of the move do you actually keep? Each card below shows
ONE fortress; this shows the whole holding. Chips are the CC strikes in
the order a rally hits them: distance from spot, contracts capped
there, survival, nearest expiry, and how many contracts are still
free above that rung. A ticker whose first cap is 6% away with
0c free above is a different position from one whose first cap is 28%
away with three quarters of the size still uncapped, and no per-card
view can tell you which you own. Reference only: no recommendation,
no new model, built from metrics the cards already computed.
COIN $176.59 · 2 fortresses · 33c total · first cap at $200.00 (+13.3%) · CC inc/mo $10,486
$200.00C +13.3% · 25c · 86% · 15d · 8c free above$270.00C +52.9% · 8c · 94% · 71d · 0c free above
GLXY $21.06 · 2 fortresses · 125c total · first cap at $23.00 (+9.2%) · CC inc/mo $62,700
$23.00C +9.2% · 100c · 96% · 1d · 25c free above25c UNCAPPED · open-ended upside
GOOG $351.26 · 3 fortresses · 25c total · first cap at $355.00 (+1.1%) · CC inc/mo $45,328
$355.00C +1.1% · 20c · 60% · 8d · 5c free above$360.00C +2.5% · 5c · 71% · 8d · 0c free above
IREN $37.44 · 4 fortresses · 80c total · first cap at $49.00 (+30.9%) · CC inc/mo $3,474
$49.00C +30.9% · 40c · 86% · 43d · 40c free above40c UNCAPPED · open-ended upside
MSTR $151.31 · 2 fortresses · 14c total · first cap at $170.00 (+12.4%) · CC inc/mo $4,388
$170.00C +12.4% · 4c · 73% · 43d · 10c free above$200.00C +32.2% · 10c · 83% · 99d · 0c free above
MU $1,077.48 · 2 fortresses · 7c total · first cap at $1,150.00 (+6.7%) · CC inc/mo $16,800
$1,150.00C +6.7% · 7c · 87% · 4d · 0c free above
Summary · sorted by urgency · click any header to sort
| TICKER · CT | STOCK | CURRENT CC | CC RISK | OUTLOOK | CLOSE P/L | STOCK FLAT | STOCK @ CAP | ROLL-DOWN OPTIONSALLSAFESTRETCHSHORTERLINEAGE | DECISION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOG · 5c earn 20d Joint:1782LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $335.00+4.9% $7.7k/mo 90d |
$351.26▲ +1.2% CC-SS $349.32 |
$355.00 OTM 1.1% Oct 16 '26 (8d) lineage +2.47/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
60%hist 73% T:81%hist 93% |
near strike pre-load the roll order at $355.00 · at cap $2,396 roll early · thin room ($2) |
−$1,587 | +$1,000 | +$2,396 @ $355.00 |
— | ⚠ WAIT (MARGINAL) ✓ → |
| GOOG · 15c earn 20d Neville:0865LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $335.00+4.9% $7.7k/mo 90d |
$351.26▲ +1.2% CC-SS $346.51 |
$355.00 OTM 1.1% Oct 16 '26 (8d) lineage +2.47/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
60%hist 73% T:81%hist 93% |
near strike pre-load the roll order at $355.00 · at cap $11,812 roll early · thin room ($2) |
−$862.50 | +$6,900 | +$11,812 @ $355.00 |
— | ⚠ WAIT (MARGINAL) ✓ → |
| AAPL · 5c RetireInc:7291 ENTRY $335.50+0.5% $240/mo 90d |
$337.04▲ +0.1% CC-SS $336.84 |
$340.00 OTM 0.9% Oct 12 '26 (4d) |
66%hist 73% T:67%hist 56% |
near strike pre-load the roll order at $340.00 · at cap $1,996 roll early · thin room ($4) |
−$577.50 | +$247.50 | +$1,996 @ $340.00 |
— | ⚠ WAIT (MARGINAL) ✓ → |
| GOOG · 5c earn 20d Neville:0865LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $369.00-4.8% $7.7k/mo 90d |
$351.26▲ +1.2% CC-SS $385.25 |
$360.00 OTM 2.5% Oct 16 '26 (8d) lineage -1.13/sh · DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
71%hist 76% T:60%hist 46% |
near strike pre-load the roll order at $360.00 · could fire this session roll early · thin room ($2) |
−$15,987 | −$14,250 | −$10,644 @ $360.00 |
— | ○ WAIT ✓ → |
| SPY · 12c Neville:0865LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $695.00+11.5% $1.5k/mo 90d |
$774.83▼ -0.3% CC-SS $705.38 |
$800.00 OTM 3.2% Oct 30 '26 (22d) lineage +0.89/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
89%hist 84% T:21%hist 30% |
safe let theta work |
+$68,838 | +$70,416 | +$96,211 @ $800.00 |
○ WAIT → | |
| MSTR · 4c ⚠ earn 21d RetireInc:7291 ENTRY $163.00-7.2% $1.5k/mo 90d |
$151.31▼ -1.0% CC-SS $163.80 |
$170.00 OTM 12.4% Nov 20 '26 (43d) lineage +1.03/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
73%hist 76% T:57%hist 46% |
normal par for the strike · no action |
−$8,530 | −$5,650 | +$3,259 @ $170.00 |
— | ✓ SKIP → |
| IGV · 12c Main:1299LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $85.00+29.8% $744/mo 90d |
$110.34▲ +0.5% CC-SS $88.25 |
$115.00 OTM 4.2% Oct 23 '26 (15d) lineage -2.76/sh · DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
76%hist 76% T:50%hist 44% |
normal par for the strike · no action |
+$22,278 | +$23,520 | +$28,695 @ $115.00 |
— | ✓ SKIP → |
| GLD · 10c Main:1299 ENTRY $465.00-18.7% $1.3k/mo 90d |
$378.07▲ +0.6% CC-SS $471.12 |
$409.00 OTM 8.2% Dec 18 '26 (71d) lineage +3.22/sh · MIXED-BUILT · 3 rolls |
81%hist 84% T:40%hist 37% |
safe let theta work |
−$130,050 | −$124,950 | −$77,911 @ $409.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $86,215 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → |
| MU · 2c Neville:0865 ENTRY $1,235.00-12.8% $15.3k/mo 90d |
$1077.48▼ -0.7% CC-SS $1,227.55 |
$1150.00 OTM 6.7% Oct 16 '26 (8d) lineage +9.06/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
83%hist 84% T:36%hist 37% |
safe let theta work |
−$34,064 | −$32,229 | −$16,211 @ $1,150.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $18,615 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → |
| MSTR · 10c ⚠ earn 21d Joint:1782LEAPBUILDERBBC ENTRY $395.00-61.7% $1.5k/mo 90d |
$151.31▼ -1.0% CC-SS $183.85 |
$200.00 OTM 32.2% Jan 15 '27 (99d) lineage +0.15/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
83%hist 84% T:38%hist 37% |
safe let theta work |
−$21,675 | −$13,825 | +$15,028 @ $200.00 |
✓ SKIP → | |
| HIMS · 15c Main:1299LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $20.00+47.1% $1.2k/mo 90d |
$29.42▼ -0.7% CC-SS $18.74 |
$32.50 OTM 10.5% Oct 16 '26 (8d) |
83%hist 84% T:34%hist 37% |
safe let theta work |
+$17,910 | +$18,450 | +$23,632 @ $32.50 |
— | ✓ SKIP → |
| DELL · 3c Main:1299 ENTRY $567.00-0.1% $4.2k/mo 90d |
$566.71▼ -2.2% CC-SS $569.71 |
$650.00 OTM 14.7% Oct 30 '26 (22d) lineage +0.42/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
85%hist 84% T:31%hist 37% |
safe let theta work |
−$2,812 | −$427.50 | +$25,497 @ $650.00 |
✓ SKIP → | |
| IREN · 20c ⚠ earn 28d Main:1299 ENTRY $45.00-16.8% $2.2k/mo 90d |
$37.44▼ -3.3% CC-SS $49.26 |
$49.00 OTM 30.9% Nov 20 '26 (43d) lineage +0.18/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
86%hist 84% T:31%hist 37% |
safe let theta work |
−$23,790 | −$21,300 | −$516.74 @ $49.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $5,656 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → |
| IREN · 20c ⚠ earn 28d Joint:1782 ENTRY $45.00-16.8% $2.2k/mo 90d |
$37.44▼ -3.3% CC-SS $49.26 |
$49.00 OTM 30.9% Nov 20 '26 (43d) lineage +0.18/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
86%hist 84% T:31%hist 37% |
safe let theta work |
−$23,790 | −$21,300 | −$516.74 @ $49.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $5,656 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → |
| COIN · 25c earn 21d Main:1299LEAPBUILDERBBC ENTRY $330.00-46.5% $6.4k/mo 90d |
$176.59▼ -0.5% CC-SS $382.95 |
$200.00 OTM 13.3% Oct 23 '26 (15d) lineage +2.68/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
86%hist 84% T:29%hist 30% |
safe let theta work |
−$208,537 | −$203,687 | −$190,705 @ $200.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $190,675 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → |
| NVDA · 10c Main:1299LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $228.00+2.7% $1.9k/mo 90d |
$234.25▼ -1.3% CC-SS $230.06 |
$250.00 OTM 6.7% Oct 23 '26 (15d) lineage -3.18/sh · DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
88%hist 84% T:25%hist 30% |
safe let theta work |
+$2,985 | +$3,950 | +$16,637 @ $250.00 |
✓ SKIP → | |
| CRWV · 5c Neville:0865 ENTRY $128.00-33.4% $698/mo 90d |
$85.19▼ -3.8% CC-SS $127.75 |
$100.00 OTM 17.4% Oct 23 '26 (15d) lineage -1.42/sh · DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
88%hist 84% T:25%hist 30% |
safe let theta work |
−$22,898 | −$22,445 | −$14,373 @ $100.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $17,468 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → |
| INTC · 5c earn 21d Neville:0865 ENTRY $116.50-5.9% $1.1k/mo 90d |
$109.66▼ -2.9% CC-SS $115.23 |
$123.00 OTM 12.2% Oct 16 '26 (8d) lineage -2.01/sh · DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
89%hist 84% T:22%hist 30% |
safe let theta work |
−$3,330 | −$2,952 | +$4,294 @ $123.00 |
✓ SKIP → | |
| HOOD · 10c earn 19d Joint:1782 ENTRY $119.00-9.7% $1.9k/mo 90d |
$107.42▼ -1.7% CC-SS $119.46 |
$120.00 OTM 11.7% Oct 16 '26 (8d) |
91%hist 95% T:18%hist 18% |
safe let theta work |
−$12,355 | −$11,890 | +$668.54 @ $120.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $4,798 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → |
| SPCX · 5c Neville:0865LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $178.00-6.3% $2.0k/mo 90d |
$166.84▼ -0.7% CC-SS $189.83 |
$195.00 OTM 16.9% Oct 30 '26 (22d) lineage -3.48/sh · DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
91%hist 95% T:18%hist 18% |
safe let theta work |
−$13,280 | −$12,725 | +$3,122 @ $195.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $1,821 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → |
| AMZN · 5c earn 21d Joint:1782 ENTRY $269.00-3.8% $2.9k/mo 90d |
$258.85▼ -0.3% CC-SS $270.47 |
$275.00 OTM 6.2% Oct 16 '26 (8d) lineage -0.83/sh · DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
91%hist 95% T:17%hist 18% |
safe let theta work |
−$6,488 | −$6,203 | +$2,751 @ $275.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $938.00 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → |
| MU · 5c Main:1299 ENTRY $1,050.00+2.6% $15.3k/mo 90d |
$1077.48▼ -0.7% CC-SS $1,039.60 |
$1150.00 OTM 6.7% Oct 12 '26 (4d) lineage +9.06/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
92%hist 95% T:17%hist 18% |
safe let theta work |
+$19,318 | +$20,640 | +$60,281 @ $1,150.00 |
✓ SKIP → | |
| QCOM · 5c ⚠ earn 27d RetireInc:7291 ENTRY $228.00-23.9% $1.2k/mo 90d |
$173.40▼ -1.9% CC-SS $227.30 |
$220.00 OTM 26.9% Nov 20 '26 (43d) lineage -0.20/sh · DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
92%hist 95% T:17%hist 18% |
safe let theta work |
−$29,082 | −$28,188 | −$3,030 @ $220.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $12,751 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → |
| SNDK · 1c earn 21d Neville:0865 ENTRY $1,636.00+1.5% $3.7k/mo 90d |
$1659.76▼ -2.5% CC-SS $1,625.16 |
$1900.00 OTM 14.5% Oct 16 '26 (8d) lineage +9.25/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
93%hist 95% T:14%hist 18% |
safe let theta work |
+$3,115 | +$3,790 | +$29,257 @ $1,900.00 |
✓ SKIP → | |
| COIN · 8c ⚠ earn 21d Main:1299 ENTRY $211.00-16.3% $6.4k/mo 90d |
$176.59▼ -0.5% CC-SS $215.66 |
$270.00 OTM 52.9% Dec 18 '26 (71d) lineage -1.70/sh · DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
94%hist 95% T:12%hist 18% |
safe let theta work |
−$38,064 | −$36,204 | +$54,618 @ $270.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $1,084 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → |
| AMD · 2c Main:1299 ENTRY $656.00-3.0% $2.8k/mo 90d |
$636.06▼ -1.5% CC-SS $659.48 |
$685.00 OTM 7.7% Oct 12 '26 (4d) |
95%hist 95% T:9%hist 7% |
safe let theta work |
−$4,731 | −$4,580 | +$5,331 @ $685.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $898.00 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → |
| GLXY · 100c earn 12d capped $23.00C Oct 09 '26 Main:1299LEAPBUILDERBBC ENTRY $37.00-43.1% $3.4k/mo 90d |
$21.06▼ -1.2% CC-SS $35.72 |
$23.00 OTM 9.2% Oct 09 '26 (1d) lineage +0.31/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
96%hist 95% T:7%hist 7% |
safe let theta work roll early · thin room ($0) |
−$125,940 | −$123,850 | −$108,295 @ $23.00 |
— | ✓ SKIP → |
| RKLB · 6c RetireInc:7291 ENTRY $148.00-51.7% $2.6k/mo 90d |
$71.54▼ -0.9% CC-SS $148.47 |
$90.00 OTM 25.8% Oct 16 '26 (8d) lineage -1.41/sh · DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
98%hist 95% T:5%hist 7% |
safe let theta work |
−$48,993 | −$48,924 | −$37,066 @ $90.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $45,284 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → |
| APP · 1c RetireInc:7291 ENTRY $601.00-54.4% $1.2k/mo 90d |
$274.26▼ -2.3% CC-SS $610.53 |
$300.00 OTM 9.4% Oct 09 '26 (1d) lineage -1.64/sh · DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
98%hist 95% T:3%hist 7% |
safe let theta work free roll gone above $314 (~1.0d) |
−$36,085 | −$36,065 | −$33,224 @ $300.00 |
— | ✓ SKIP → |
| COPX · 20c Joint:1782LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $93.00-11.3% $1.6k/mo 90d |
$82.51▼ -1.2% CC-SS $95.40 |
$89.00 OTM 7.9% Oct 09 '26 (1d) |
100%hist 95% T:0%hist 7% |
safe let theta work |
−$27,625 | −$26,200 | −$13,093 @ $89.00 |
— | ✓ SKIP → |
| IREN · 20c Neville:0865 ENTRY $58.25-35.7% $2.2k/mo 90d |
$37.44▼ -3.3% CC-SS $57.84 |
— — |
NO CC | — | −$46,490 | −$46,490 | — | — | ✓ SKIP → |
| IREN · 20c RetireInc:7291 ENTRY $65.00-42.4% $2.2k/mo 90d |
$37.44▼ -3.3% CC-SS $66.40 |
— — |
NO CC | — | −$65,220 | −$65,220 | — | — | ✓ SKIP → |
| GLXY · 25c ⚠ earn 12d uncapped slice Main:1299LEAPBUILDERBBC ENTRY $37.00-43.1% $3.4k/mo 90d |
$21.06▼ -1.2% CC-SS $35.86 |
— — |
NO CC | — | −$30,962 | −$30,962 | — | — | ✓ SKIP → |
| CRCL · 5c Neville:0865 ENTRY $90.85-11.6% $690/mo 90d |
$80.33▼ -0.6% CC-SS $90.54 |
— — |
NO CC | — | −$5,345 | −$5,345 | — | — | ✓ SKIP → |
CALIBRATION · predicted vs realized (451 of 574 resolved, since 2026-07-03)
| PRED SURV BUCKET | N | PREDICTED | REALIZED OTM | GAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 26 | 51% | 73% | +22pp |
| 60-70% | 33 | 67% | 73% | +6pp |
| 70-80% | 89 | 76% | 76% | +1pp |
| 80-90% | 184 | 85% | 84% | -2pp |
| 90-100% | 119 | 94% | 95% | +1pp |
Touch odds: predicted 36% vs realized 38% (n=450, 437/450 from daily highs (exact); the rest from spot samples, which undercount intraday touches).
Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.49x (W29) to 1.40x (W32) over 10 weeks; last week 0.76x. The line above is the average of those weeks, not a forecast for the next one.
Same forecasts, split by the position's own
IV. The single gap above is an average of opposite signals:
the model is close to calibrated on the high-IV names that carry most
of this book's risk, and conservative only on the quiet ones. Reading
the book-level number as "sell closer everywhere" would borrow a quiet
stock's safety margin and spend it on the most volatile position.
Split by IV rather than by ticker because IV is what actually drives
the error, and because per-ticker is unusable here (31 tickers over
451 resolutions, median n=3). Display only: no gate and no
correction reads this.
| IV BAND | N | PRED SURV | REALIZED OTM | GAP | TOUCH P→R | BREACHES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IV < 45% | 110 | 81% | 80% | -1pp | 39% → 49% | 22 |
| IV 45-75% | 113 | 80% | 80% | -1pp | 41% → 41% | 23 |
| IV ≥ 75% | 228 | 84% | 88% | +4pp | 33% → 30% | 28 |
MEASURED, NOT ARMED · the gaps above are recorded but are not correcting survival or touch yet. Factors arm only once the graded sample has seen varied tape: ≥30 contracts, ≥6 distinct expiry weeks, ≥60 days of calendar span, ≥10 actual breaches. That gate exists because implied vol sits structurally above realized (the variance risk premium IS why selling calls pays), so a pass over one quiet or one falling stretch will always claim the model is too pessimistic and beg it to sell closer. Obeying that would strip the margin exactly when vol returns.
⚠ WAIT (MARGINAL) GOOG · 5c · Joint:1782 LEAPS-ONLY
⏱ NEAR STRIKE · PRE-LOAD ROLL ORDER If it crosses $355.00: roll to the ROUTED pick: $385.00 Nov 20 '26 (43d) · at trip ~+$0.52/sh. Pre-load a conditional order in TWS at $355.00 now so it fires on nights you are not watching. A cross is a payday here: $2,396 at the cap.
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Roll early: only $2 of room past the strike (~0.3 typical days). One normal day can jump it, so roll on the approach, do not wait for the cross
ACT
before $355
on the approach · the window past the strike is too short
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤15d)
up to ~$357.50
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$357
$2 of room · ~0.3 typical days
$351.26 now
$355 strike · free roll gone above $357
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤15d): stock at $355 → up to $357.50 · stock at $356 → up to $357.50 · above $357 → capped below the stock
Later expiries cross earnings and are not counted (never sell income into a print), so the longest free roll here is 15d.
MARKET
STOCK$351.26Joint: 5centry ~$335.00 · +4.9%
CURRENT CC$355.00Oct 16 '26 · 8d
CC STATUSOTM 1.1%60% survT:81%hist 73%hist 93%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$392.50-11.7% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$349.32+0.6% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$1,000
CC BUYBACK-$2,588
CLOSE P/L$-1,587
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$1,000
STOCK @ $355.00$2,396
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.75
CC INC/MO$9,703
CALLS NET 90D$7.7k/mokeep 87% · 15 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$310.00C / -$355.00CLEAPS-only · LC / CC
CC LINEAGE
+2.47 (earlier legs realized +1.46/sh, already banked) = +2.47/sh
(+$1,235 on 5c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $355.00 is 1.1% OTM but only 60% survival. Proactive roll available: Roll to $385.00 Nov 20 '26 (43d) for $+1.25/sh credit ($625.00 total). New position: 78% survival. Improvement: +18% survival. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $373.77. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $365.00C Nov 06 '26 (29d) · +$10/sh room · net +$2,280✓ DEEPEST FREE · $445.00C Mar 19 '27 (162d) · +$90/sh room · net +$1,267
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL SUGGESTIONS
⚠ WAIT MARGINAL · advisory only · see action-oriented rolls above
Expiries scanned · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $355.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 8d · cap now $2,396 · spot $351
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ ROUTED ▸ if challenged | roll to 5× | $385.00C Nov 20 '26 · 43d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe | $6.43 | 0.20 | 78% T:45% | +$625.00 | $1,625 | $14,228 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$535.71/mo of added tenor vs $9,703/mo run rate at trip: ~+$2.79/sh |
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $410.00C Nov 06 '26 | roll to 5× | $385.00C Oct 23 '26 · 15d ✓ CC-safe | $1.02 | 0.09 | 92% T:16% | $-2,078 | $-1,077 | $11,526 | at trip: ~-$3.34/sh |
| ◆ ↗ SAFER + ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% ▸ if challenged | roll to 5× | $395.00C Oct 23 '26 · 15d ✓ CC-safe | $0.51 | 0.06 | 96% T:9% | $-2,335 | $-1,335 | $15,004 | at trip: ~-$3.93/sh |
ROUTED · $385.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 21 of 43); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $19.83/sh now → $14.02 mid-life (likely $13.98–$19.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,149 simulated challenges: the $385 strike is typically first touched on day 20 of 43, at $390 (overshoots $4.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$385 | 27 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$2.85/sh | -$1,427 cycle +$1,648 [-$2,359…-$1,240] · 6% credit | 64% surv 52% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$394 | 27 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$5.40/sh | -$2,700 cycle +$375 [-$3,679…-$2,664] · 2% credit | 71% surv 62% |
| budget: banked $3,075 debit $2,700 (88% used) → whole cycle still +$375 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,620/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | ||||||
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $365.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $15.21/sh now → $10.76 mid-life (likely $12.69–$16.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,738 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 22, at $369 (overshoots $4.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$369 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$2.70/sh | +$1,349 cycle +$5,399 [+$289…+$1,086] · 89% credit | 69% surv 56% |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$365 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.98/sh | +$491 cycle +$4,541 [-$172…+$344] · 50% credit | 67% surv 52% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$374 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.71/sh | +$356 cycle +$4,406 [-$821…+$17] · 25% credit | 71% surv 61% |
| SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | ||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$409 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$8.02/sh | -$4,010 cycle +$40 [-$6,152…-$4,756] | 88% surv 87% |
| budget: banked $4,050 debit $4,010 (99% used) → whole cycle still +$40 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,284/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | ||||||
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFER · $395.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.51/sh now → $7.43 mid-life (likely $4.85–$9.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 108 simulated challenges: the $395 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 15, at $399 (overshoots $3.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$395 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$3.61/sh | +$1,804 cycle +$2,024 [+$1,640…+$2,361] · 100% credit | 67% surv 51% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$414 | 20 Nov 2026 | 36d left | +$0.90/sh | +$451 cycle +$671 [-$100…+$1,344] · 71% credit | 76% surv 69% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$404 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$0.00/sh | +$2 cycle +$222 [-$493…+$432] · 50% credit | 73% surv 64% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $375.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $15.63/sh now → $11.05 mid-life (likely $11.27–$16.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,236 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 22, at $380 (overshoots $4.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$379 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$2.32/sh | +$1,160 cycle +$3,935 [+$246…+$1,360] · 89% credit | 69% surv 56% |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$375 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.63/sh | +$315 cycle +$3,090 [-$260…+$484] · 50% credit | 67% surv 52% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$384 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.33/sh | +$167 cycle +$2,942 [-$861…+$298] · 33% credit | 71% surv 61% |
| SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | ||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$399 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$4.67/sh | -$2,333 cycle +$442 [-$3,786…-$2,371] · 3% credit | 79% surv 74% |
| budget: banked $2,775 debit $2,333 (84% used) → whole cycle still +$442 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,995/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | ||||||
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $365C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn +$1,688 67% T:68% flat +$2,688 · cap +$7,819 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$4.99/sh | $360C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$137.50 67% T:68% flat +$1,138 · cap +$4,402 | $365C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$2,287 66% T:71% flat +$3,288 · cap +$8,419 -1pp surv for +14d | $370C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$2,650 68% T:67% flat +$3,650 · cap +$10,650 +2pp surv for +14d | $370C Nov 27 '26 (50d) ⚠ earn +$3,000 68% T:67% flat +$4,000 · cap +$11,000 -0pp surv for +7d · +43% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $365C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn +$1,688 67% T:68% flat +$2,688 · cap +$7,819 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$4.99/sh | $355C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$1,062 58% T:86% flat +$2,063 · cap +$3,459 | = ★ | $370C Nov 13 '26 (36d) ⚠ earn +$2,037 70% T:63% flat +$3,038 · cap +$10,037 +3pp surv for +14d | = |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $395C Oct 23 '26 (15d) -$2,335 96% T:9% flat -$1,335 · cap +$15,004 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$3.93/sh | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $375C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn +$337.50 76% T:49% flat +$1,338 · cap +$10,205 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$1.85/sh | $360C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$137.50 67% T:68% flat +$1,138 · cap +$4,402 | $380C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$137.50 79% T:44% flat +$1,138 · cap +$11,873 cap +$20 for +14d | $390C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$125.00 81% T:39% flat +$1,125 · cap +$15,596 cap +$10 for +14d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (83) · Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +2 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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⚠ WAIT (MARGINAL) GOOG · 15c · Neville:0865
⏱ NEAR STRIKE · PRE-LOAD ROLL ORDER If it crosses $355.00: roll to the ROUTED pick: $385.00 Nov 20 '26 (43d) · at trip ~+$0.52/sh. Pre-load a conditional order in TWS at $355.00 now so it fires on nights you are not watching. A cross is a payday here: $11,812 at the cap.
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Roll early: only $2 of room past the strike (~0.3 typical days). One normal day can jump it, so roll on the approach, do not wait for the cross
ACT
before $355
on the approach · the window past the strike is too short
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤15d)
up to ~$357.50
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$357
$2 of room · ~0.3 typical days
$351.26 now
$355 strike · free roll gone above $357
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤15d): stock at $355 → up to $357.50 · stock at $356 → up to $357.50 · above $357 → capped below the stock
Later expiries cross earnings and are not counted (never sell income into a print), so the longest free roll here is 15d.
MARKET
STOCK$351.26Neville: 15centry ~$335.00 · +4.9%
CURRENT CC$355.00Oct 16 '26 · 8d
CC STATUSOTM 1.1%60% survT:81%hist 73%hist 93%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$373.00-6.2% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$346.51+1.4% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$6,900
CC BUYBACK-$7,763
CLOSE P/L$-862.50
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$6,900
STOCK @ $355.00$11,812
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.88
CC INC/MO$29,109
CALLS NET 90D$7.7k/mokeep 87% · 15 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$300.00C / -$345.00P / +$310.00P / -$355.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
+2.47 (earlier legs realized +1.46/sh, already banked) = +2.47/sh
(+$3,705 on 15c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $355.00 is 1.1% OTM but only 60% survival. Proactive roll available: Roll to $385.00 Nov 20 '26 (43d) for $+1.25/sh credit ($1,875 total). New position: 78% survival. Improvement: +18% survival. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $373.77. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $365.00C Nov 06 '26 (29d) · +$10/sh room · net +$6,840✓ DEEPEST FREE · $445.00C Mar 19 '27 (162d) · +$90/sh room · net +$3,802
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL SUGGESTIONS
⚠ WAIT MARGINAL · advisory only · see action-oriented rolls above
Expiries scanned · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $355.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 8d · cap now $11,812 · spot $351
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ ROUTED ▸ if challenged | roll to 15× | $385.00C Nov 20 '26 · 43d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe | $6.43 | 0.20 | 78% T:45% | +$1,875 | $8,775 | $53,117 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$1,607/mo of added tenor vs $29,109/mo run rate at trip: ~+$2.79/sh |
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $410.00C Nov 06 '26 | roll to 15× | $385.00C Oct 23 '26 · 15d ✓ CC-safe | $1.02 | 0.09 | 92% T:16% | $-6,233 | $667.50 | $45,009 | at trip: ~-$3.34/sh |
| ◆ ↗ SAFER + ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% ▸ if challenged | roll to 15× | $395.00C Oct 23 '26 · 15d ✓ CC-safe | $0.51 | 0.06 | 96% T:9% | $-7,005 | $-105.00 | $57,380 | at trip: ~-$3.93/sh |
ROUTED · $385.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 21 of 43); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $19.83/sh now → $14.02 mid-life (likely $14.10–$19.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,169 simulated challenges: the $385 strike is typically first touched on day 19 of 43, at $389 (overshoots $4.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$385 | 27 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$2.85/sh | -$4,280 cycle +$4,945 [-$7,146…-$3,887] · 7% credit | 64% surv 52% | +$52,224 SAFE cap gain +$45,324 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$394 | 27 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$5.40/sh | -$8,101 cycle +$1,124 [-$11,042…-$8,088] · 1% credit | 71% surv 62% | +$60,535 SAFE cap gain +$53,635 |
| budget: banked $9,225 debit $8,101 (88% used) → whole cycle still +$1,124 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $13,860/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $365.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $15.21/sh now → $10.76 mid-life (likely $12.92–$16.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,791 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 22, at $370 (overshoots $4.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$369 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$2.70/sh | +$4,047 cycle +$16,197 [+$825…+$3,137] · 89% credit | 69% surv 56% | +$41,963 SAFE cap gain +$35,063 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$365 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.98/sh | +$1,472 cycle +$13,622 [-$533…+$959] · 49% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$35,733 SAFE cap gain +$28,833 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$374 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.71/sh | +$1,067 cycle +$13,217 [-$2,493…-$71] · 24% credit | 71% surv 61% | +$45,736 SAFE cap gain +$38,836 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$409 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$8.02/sh | -$12,030 cycle +$120 [-$18,650…-$14,435] | 88% surv 87% | +$81,245 SAFE cap gain +$74,345 |
| budget: banked $12,150 debit $12,030 (99% used) → whole cycle still +$120 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $3,853/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFER · $395.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.51/sh now → $7.43 mid-life (likely $4.91–$8.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 113 simulated challenges: the $395 strike is typically first touched on day 12 of 15, at $399 (overshoots $3.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$395 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$3.61/sh | +$5,413 cycle +$6,073 [+$5,317…+$7,089] · 100% credit | 67% surv 51% | +$69,734 SAFE cap gain +$62,834 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$414 | 20 Nov 2026 | 36d left | +$0.90/sh | +$1,353 cycle +$2,013 [+$769…+$4,219] · 85% credit | 76% surv 69% | +$90,238 SAFE cap gain +$83,338 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$404 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$0.00/sh | +$7 cycle +$667 [-$887…+$1,264] · 51% credit | 73% surv 64% | +$76,537 SAFE cap gain +$69,637 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $375.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $15.63/sh now → $11.05 mid-life (likely $11.50–$16.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,297 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 22, at $380 (overshoots $4.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$379 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$2.32/sh | +$3,481 cycle +$11,806 [+$783…+$4,161] · 89% credit | 69% surv 56% | +$51,132 SAFE cap gain +$44,232 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$375 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.63/sh | +$945 cycle +$9,270 [-$778…+$1,529] · 51% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$44,822 SAFE cap gain +$37,922 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$384 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.33/sh | +$501 cycle +$8,826 [-$2,467…+$882] · 33% credit | 71% surv 61% | +$55,009 SAFE cap gain +$48,109 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$399 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$4.67/sh | -$6,998 cycle +$1,327 [-$11,233…-$7,198] · 2% credit | 79% surv 74% | +$68,355 SAFE cap gain +$61,455 |
| budget: banked $8,325 debit $6,998 (84% used) → whole cycle still +$1,327 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $8,985/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $365C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn +$5,062 67% T:68% flat +$11,962 · cap +$30,018 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$4.99/sh | $360C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$412.50 67% T:68% flat +$7,312 · cap +$18,796 | $365C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$6,862 66% T:71% flat +$13,762 · cap +$31,818 -1pp surv for +14d | $370C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$7,950 68% T:67% flat +$14,850 · cap +$39,477 +2pp surv for +14d | $370C Nov 27 '26 (50d) ⚠ earn +$9,000 68% T:67% flat +$15,900 · cap +$40,527 -0pp surv for +7d · +33% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $365C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn +$5,062 67% T:68% flat +$11,962 · cap +$30,018 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$4.99/sh | $355C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$3,188 58% T:86% flat +$10,087 · cap +$15,000 | = ★ | $370C Nov 13 '26 (36d) ⚠ earn +$6,112 70% T:63% flat +$13,012 · cap +$37,639 +3pp surv for +14d | = |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $395C Oct 23 '26 (15d) -$7,005 96% T:9% flat -$105.00 · cap +$57,380 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$3.93/sh | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $375C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn +$1,012 76% T:49% flat +$7,912 · cap +$39,111 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$1.85/sh | $360C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$412.50 67% T:68% flat +$7,312 · cap +$18,796 | $380C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$412.50 79% T:44% flat +$7,312 · cap +$45,083 cap +$20 for +14d | $390C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$375.00 81% T:39% flat +$7,275 · cap +$58,188 cap +$10 for +14d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (83) · Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +2 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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⚠ WAIT (MARGINAL) AAPL · 5c · RetireInc:7291
⏱ NEAR STRIKE · PRE-LOAD ROLL ORDER If it crosses $340.00: roll to the ROUTED pick: $365.00 Nov 20 '26 (43d) · at trip ~-$0.10/sh. Pre-load a conditional order in TWS at $340.00 now so it fires on nights you are not watching. A cross is a payday here: $1,996 at the cap.
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Roll early: only $4 of room past the strike (~0.9 typical days). One normal day can jump it, so roll on the approach, do not wait for the cross
ACT
before $340
on the approach · the window past the strike is too short
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤30d)
up to ~$350
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$344
$4 of room · ~0.9 typical days
$337.04 now
$340 strike
$344 free roll gone
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤30d): stock at $340 → up to $350 · stock at $341 → up to $350 · stock at $343 → up to $350 · above $344 → capped below the stock
Other tenor budgets: ≤15d gone above ~$344
Later expiries cross earnings and are not counted (never sell income into a print), so the longest free roll here is 22d.
MARKET
STOCK$337.04RetireInc: 5centry ~$335.50 · +0.5%
CURRENT CC$340.00Oct 12 '26 · 4d
CC STATUSOTM 0.9%66% survT:67%hist 73%hist 56%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$334.64+0.7% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$336.84+0.1% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$247.50
CC BUYBACK-$825.00
CLOSE P/L$-577.50
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$247.50
STOCK @ $340.00$1,996
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$91/pt+0.18δ/sh
CC INC/MO$6,188
CALLS NET 90D$240/mokeep 100% · 2 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$240.00C / -$330.00P / +$285.00P / -$340.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $340.00 is 0.9% OTM but only 66% survival. Proactive roll available: Roll to $365.00 Nov 20 '26 (43d) for $+1.44/sh credit ($717.50 total). New position: 83% survival. Improvement: +16% survival. Weekly gate: EXTENDED. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $348.59. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $345.00C Oct 19 '26 (11d) · +$5/sh room · net +$152.50✓ DEEPEST FREE · $430.00C Mar 19 '27 (162d) · +$90/sh room · net +$275.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
⚠ WAIT MARGINAL · advisory only · see action-oriented rolls above
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 12 '26 (4d) · Oct 14 '26 (6d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 19 '26 (11d) · Oct 21 '26 (13d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $340.00C · Oct 12 '26 · 4d · cap now $1,996 · spot $337
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ ROUTED ▸ if challenged | roll to 5× | $365.00C Nov 20 '26 · 43d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 02 ✓ CC-safe | $3.08 | 0.23 | 83% T:35% | +$717.50 | $965.00 | $17,478 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$551.92/mo of added tenor vs $3,536/mo run rate at trip: ~+$1.69/sh |
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~16% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $380.00C Nov 20 '26 | roll to 5× | $365.00C Oct 30 '26 · 22d ✓ CC-safe | $0.66 | 0.08 | 94% T:13% | $-495.00 | $-247.50 | $16,266 | at trip: ~-$1.22/sh |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 5× | $362.50C Oct 23 '26 · 15d ✓ CC-safe | $0.38 | 0.06 | 96% T:9% | $-637.50 | $-390.00 | $14,647 | at trip: ~-$1.55/sh |
ROUTED · $365.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 21 of 43); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $14.33/sh now → $10.13 mid-life (likely $9.65–$13.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,017 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 22 of 43, at $368 (overshoots $3.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$365 | 27 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$2.98/sh | -$1,489 cycle -$4 [-$2,149…-$1,224] · 5% credit | 63% surv 51% | +$15,738 SAFE cap gain +$15,490 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $345.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.63/sh now → $6.10 mid-life (likely $7.27–$9.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,772 simulated challenges: the $345 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 22, at $347 (overshoots $2.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$348 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$3.30/sh | +$1,648 cycle +$3,823 [+$1,117…+$1,469] · 100% credit | 69% surv 56% | +$9,635 SAFE cap gain +$9,387 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$345 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$2.11/sh | +$1,056 cycle +$3,231 [+$744…+$948] · 100% credit | 66% surv 51% | +$7,449 SAFE cap gain +$7,201 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$348 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.78/sh | +$390 cycle +$2,565 [+$5…+$261] · 76% credit | 69% surv 57% | +$8,535 SAFE cap gain +$8,287 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$353 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.98/sh | +$492 cycle +$2,667 [-$168…+$255] · 57% credit | 72% surv 63% | +$11,432 SAFE cap gain +$11,184 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$373 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$4.24/sh | -$2,119 cycle +$56 [-$3,298…-$2,558] | 88% surv 86% | +$20,483 SAFE cap gain +$20,236 |
| budget: banked $2,175 debit $2,119 (97% used) → whole cycle still +$56 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $875/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $345C Oct 30 '26 (22d) +$1,450 68% T:66% flat +$1,697 · cap +$6,399 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$3.18/sh | $345C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$800.00 71% T:59% flat +$1,047 · cap +$5,749 | $350C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$1,850 70% T:61% flat +$2,097 · cap +$9,752 -1pp surv for +14d | $350C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$2,738 68% T:67% flat +$2,985 · cap +$10,639 -2pp surv for +14d | $350C Nov 27 '26 (50d) ⚠ earn +$3,012 67% T:67% flat +$3,260 · cap +$10,914 -0pp surv for +7d · +79% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $345C Oct 30 '26 (22d) +$1,450 68% T:66% flat +$1,697 · cap +$6,399 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$3.18/sh | $342.5C Oct 21 '26 (13d) +$900.00 65% T:70% flat +$1,147 · cap +$4,372 | $350C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$1,850 70% T:61% flat +$2,097 · cap +$9,752 +5pp surv for +16d | = | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (105) · Oct 14 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 19 '26 / Oct 21 '26 +6 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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○ WAIT GOOG · 5c · Neville:0865
✓ GREEKS RECOVERED (SP): IBKR initial fetch returned no modelGreeks for the above leg; retry pass resolved cleanly. Data is reliable.
⏱ NEAR STRIKE · PRE-LOAD ROLL ORDER If it crosses $360.00: roll to the ROUTED pick: $395.00 Nov 27 '26 (50d) · at trip ~+$2.23/sh. Pre-load a conditional order in TWS at $360.00 now so it fires on nights you are not watching.
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Roll early: only $2 of room past the strike (~0.3 typical days). One normal day can jump it, so roll on the approach, do not wait for the cross
ACT
before $360
on the approach · the window past the strike is too short
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤15d)
up to ~$362.50
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$362
$2 of room · ~0.3 typical days
$351.26 now
$360 strike · free roll gone above $362
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤15d): stock at $360 → up to $362.50 · stock at $361 → up to $362.50 · above $362 → capped below the stock
Later expiries cross earnings and are not counted (never sell income into a print), so the longest free roll here is 15d.
Your current call already sits under the CC-safe floor $387.43, so rolls are not held to it: any higher strike is an improvement.
MARKET
STOCK$351.26Neville: 5centry ~$369.00 · -4.8%
CURRENT CC$360.00Oct 16 '26 · 8d
CC STATUSOTM 2.5%71% survT:60%hist 76%hist 46%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$398.00-13.3% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$385.25-9.7% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-14,250
CC BUYBACK-$1,738
CLOSE P/L$-15,987
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-14,250
STOCK @ $360.00$-10,644
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.83
CC INC/MO$6,516
CALLS NET 90D$7.7k/mokeep 87% · 15 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$340.00C / -$405.00P / +$360.00P / -$360.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
-1.13 (earlier legs realized +1.46/sh, already banked) = -1.13/sh
(-$565.00 on 5c) ·
DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · room was BOUGHT; a paid roll sits in the chain
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $360.00 is 2.5% OTM (71% survival — borderline). Touch odds 60% before expiry. Theta -$0.39/d with 8d left is doing the work. Monitor; if stock breaks $360.00 or sigma drops below 0.50, roll options appear. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-14,250 · at cap $-10,644. ⚠ LC has 252d left. Plan rebuild within 3 months. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $373.77. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $370.00C Nov 06 '26 (29d) · +$10/sh room · net +$2,280 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $450.00C Mar 19 '27 (162d) · +$90/sh room · net +$1,867
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
⏳ WAIT · advisory only · see fortress block above
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $360.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 8d · cap now $-10,644 · spot $351
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ ROUTED | roll to 5× | $395.00C Nov 27 '26 · 50d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe | $5.00 | 0.22 | 83% T:35% | +$762.50 | $-13,487 | $4,562 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$544.64/mo of added tenor vs $6,516/mo run rate at trip: ~+$2.23/sh |
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $410.00C Nov 06 '26 | roll to 5× | $385.00C Oct 23 '26 · 15d ✓ CC-safe | $1.02 | 0.09 | 92% T:16% | $-1,228 | $-15,477 | $-1,554 | at trip: ~-$2.80/sh |
| ◆ ↗ SAFER + ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% ▸ if challenged | roll to 5× | $395.00C Oct 23 '26 · 15d ✓ CC-safe | $0.51 | 0.06 | 96% T:9% | $-1,485 | $-15,735 | $2,315 | at trip: ~-$3.68/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $365.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $15.21/sh now → $10.76 mid-life (likely $12.69–$16.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,738 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 22, at $369 (overshoots $4.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$369 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$2.70/sh | +$1,349 cycle +$5,399 [+$289…+$1,086] · 89% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$3,809 NOT cap gain +$10,441 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$365 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.98/sh | +$491 cycle +$4,541 [-$172…+$344] · 50% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$5,538 NOT cap gain +$8,712 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$374 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.71/sh | +$356 cycle +$4,406 [-$821…+$17] · 25% credit | 71% surv 61% | -$2,574 NOT cap gain +$11,676 |
| SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$409 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$8.02/sh | -$4,010 cycle +$40 [-$6,152…-$4,756] | 88% surv 87% | +$9,619 SAFE cap gain +$23,869 |
| budget: banked $4,050 debit $4,010 (99% used) → whole cycle still +$40 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,284/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $375.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $15.63/sh now → $11.05 mid-life (likely $11.27–$16.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,236 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 22, at $380 (overshoots $4.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$379 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$2.32/sh | +$1,160 cycle +$3,935 [+$246…+$1,360] · 89% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$777 NOT cap gain +$13,473 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$375 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.63/sh | +$315 cycle +$3,090 [-$260…+$484] · 50% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$2,589 NOT cap gain +$11,661 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$384 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.33/sh | +$167 cycle +$2,942 [-$861…+$298] · 33% credit | 71% surv 61% | +$535 SAFE cap gain +$14,785 |
| SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$399 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$4.67/sh | -$2,333 cycle +$442 [-$3,786…-$2,371] · 3% credit | 79% surv 74% | +$5,146 SAFE cap gain +$19,396 |
| budget: banked $2,775 debit $2,333 (84% used) → whole cycle still +$442 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,995/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFER · $395.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.51/sh now → $7.43 mid-life (likely $4.85–$9.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 108 simulated challenges: the $395 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 15, at $399 (overshoots $3.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$395 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$3.61/sh | +$1,804 cycle +$2,024 [+$1,640…+$2,361] · 100% credit | 67% surv 51% | +$5,903 SAFE cap gain +$20,153 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$414 | 20 Nov 2026 | 36d left | +$0.90/sh | +$451 cycle +$671 [-$100…+$1,344] · 71% credit | 76% surv 69% | +$12,721 SAFE cap gain +$26,971 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$404 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$0.00/sh | +$2 cycle +$222 [-$493…+$432] · 50% credit | 73% surv 64% | +$8,267 SAFE cap gain +$22,517 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $385.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $16.05/sh now → $11.35 mid-life (likely $10.25–$15.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 832 simulated challenges: the $385 strike is typically first touched on day 12 of 22, at $390 (overshoots $4.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$389 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$1.92/sh | +$959 cycle +$2,659 [+$223…+$1,618] · 85% credit | 69% surv 56% | +$2,591 SAFE cap gain +$16,841 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$385 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.26/sh | +$129 cycle +$1,829 [-$327…+$654] · 53% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$703 SAFE cap gain +$14,953 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$389 | 13 Nov 2026 | 25d left | +$0.14/sh | +$71 cycle +$1,771 [-$558…+$672] · 46% credit | 69% surv 56% | +$2,044 SAFE cap gain +$16,294 |
| SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$399 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$2.08/sh | -$1,041 cycle +$659 [-$2,011…-$518] · 16% credit | 74% surv 66% | +$5,362 SAFE cap gain +$19,612 |
| budget: banked $1,700 debit $1,041 (61% used) → whole cycle still +$659 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,344/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $365C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn +$2,538 67% T:68% flat -$11,712 · cap -$6,043 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ⚠ locks $5,428 if capped at trip: ~+$7.01/sh | $360C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$987.50 67% T:68% flat -$13,262 · cap -$9,657 | $365C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$3,138 66% T:71% flat -$11,112 · cap -$5,443 -1pp surv for +14d | $370C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$3,500 68% T:67% flat -$10,750 · cap -$3,017 +2pp surv for +14d | $370C Nov 27 '26 (50d) ⚠ earn +$3,850 68% T:67% flat -$10,400 · cap -$2,667 -0pp surv for +7d · +20% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $375C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn +$1,187 76% T:49% flat -$13,062 · cap -$3,266 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ⚠ locks $2,395 if capped ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$3.35/sh | $360C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$987.50 67% T:68% flat -$13,262 · cap -$9,657 | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $395C Oct 23 '26 (15d) -$1,485 96% T:9% flat -$15,735 · cap +$2,315 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$3.68/sh | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $385C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn +$112.50 84% T:34% flat -$14,137 · cap -$214.43 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$0.66/sh | $365C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$250.00 74% T:52% flat -$14,000 · cap -$8,331 | $390C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$62.50 85% T:31% flat -$14,187 · cap +$1,799 cap +$25 for +14d | $400C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$150.00 86% T:29% flat -$14,100 · cap +$6,013 cap +$10 for +14d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (83) · Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +2 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $360.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 8d · cap now $-10,644 · spot $351
⚠ STRETCH · 1 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $-1,180 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE | NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $357.50 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-11,194 if capped) | Oct 09 '26 · 1d | $-1,180 | 77% | 46% |
○ WAIT SPY · 12c · Neville:0865 LEAPS-ONLY
MARKET
STOCK$774.83Neville: 12centry ~$695.00 · +11.5%
CURRENT CC$800.00Oct 30 '26 · 22d
CC STATUSOTM 3.2%89% survT:21%hist 84%hist 30%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$764.00+1.4% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$705.38+9.0% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$70,416
CC BUYBACK-$1,578
CLOSE P/L$68,838
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$70,416
STOCK @ $800.00$96,211
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.85
CC INC/MO$2,152
CALLS NET 90D$1.5k/mokeep 66% · 10 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$640.00C / -$800.00CLEAPS-only · LC / CC
CC LINEAGE
+0.89 (earlier legs realized +0.82/sh, already banked) = +0.89/sh
(+$1,068 on 12c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $800.00 is 3.2% OTM (89% survival). Touch odds 21% before expiry. Monitor. If stock breaks $800.00, roll options appear below. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $70,416 · at cap $96,211. Weekly gate: EXTENDED. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $784.68. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $806.00C Nov 06 '26 (29d) · +$6/sh room · net +$174.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $900.00C Mar 31 '27 (174d) · +$100/sh room · net +$312.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
⏳ WAIT · advisory only · see fortress block above
Expiries scanned · Oct 08 '26 (0d) · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 12 '26 (4d) · Oct 13 '26 (5d) · Oct 14 '26 (6d) · Oct 15 '26 (7d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 19 '26 (11d) · Oct 20 '26 (12d) · Oct 21 '26 (13d) · Oct 22 '26 (14d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d) · Nov 30 '26 (53d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $800.00C · Oct 30 '26 · 22d · cap now $96,211 · spot $775
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~20% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 12× | $820.00C Nov 27 '26 · 50d ✓ CC-safe | $1.66 | 0.11 | 92% T:16% | +$414.00 | $70,830 | $117,121 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$443.57/mo of added tenor vs $2,152/mo run rate at trip: ~-$0.30/sh |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~10% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 12× | $830.00C Nov 30 '26 · 53d ✓ CC-safe | $0.93 | 0.07 | 95% T:9% | $-462.00 | $69,954 | $126,493 | at trip: ~-$2.40/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $786.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 18 of 36); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $14.85/sh now → $10.50 mid-life (likely $12.88–$15.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,937 simulated challenges: the $786 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 36, at $789 (overshoots $3.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$786 | 20 Nov 2026 | 25d left | +$1.54/sh | +$1,853 cycle +$11,921 [+$693…+$1,346] · 94% credit | 66% surv 51% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$789 | 27 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$1.35/sh | +$1,619 cycle +$11,687 [-$67…+$849] · 73% credit | 68% surv 55% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$788 | 20 Nov 2026 | 25d left | +$0.31/sh | +$376 cycle +$10,444 [-$938…-$204] · 18% credit | 67% surv 54% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$792 | 30 Nov 2026 | 35d left | +$0.02/sh | +$29 cycle +$10,097 [-$1,691…-$761] · 14% credit | 72% surv 59% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$816 | 30 Nov 2026 | 35d left | -$8.31/sh | -$9,967 cycle +$101 [-$14,075…-$11,873] | 89% surv 88% |
| budget: banked $10,068 debit $9,967 (99% used) → whole cycle still +$101 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,256/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | ||||||
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $783.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 29); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $12.87/sh now → $9.10 mid-life (likely $11.46–$14.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 2,046 simulated challenges: the $783 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 29, at $786 (overshoots $3.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$783 | 13 Nov 2026 | 22d left | +$1.68/sh | +$2,013 cycle +$11,805 [+$1,175…+$1,642] · 100% credit | 68% surv 51% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$788 | 30 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$2.88/sh | +$3,461 cycle +$13,253 [+$1,419…+$2,490] · 97% credit | 69% surv 57% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$785 | 13 Nov 2026 | 22d left | +$0.51/sh | +$606 cycle +$10,398 [-$347…+$150] · 35% credit | 69% surv 54% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$793 | 30 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.33/sh | +$400 cycle +$10,192 [-$2,012…-$755] · 14% credit | 72% surv 62% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$816 | 30 Nov 2026 | 38d left | -$7.00/sh | -$8,398 cycle +$1,394 [-$12,568…-$10,412] | 90% surv 89% |
| budget: banked $9,792 debit $8,398 (86% used) → whole cycle still +$1,394 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $1,991/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | ||||||
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $786C Nov 13 '26 (36d) +$8,508 65% T:70% flat +$78,924 · cap +$90,371 ✓ CC-safe | — | $786C Nov 06 '26 (29d) +$6,630 66% T:70% flat +$77,046 · cap +$88,493 | $789C Nov 20 '26 (43d) +$8,856 66% T:69% flat +$79,272 · cap +$93,794 +0pp surv for +14d | $790C Nov 30 '26 (53d) +$10,092 66% T:70% flat +$80,508 · cap +$96,055 -0pp surv for +10d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $783C Nov 06 '26 (29d) +$8,274 62% T:78% flat +$78,690 · cap +$87,063 ✓ CC-safe | — | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ |
ALL CANDIDATES (206) · Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 / Nov 20 '26 / Nov 27 '26 +1 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $800.00C · Oct 30 '26 · 22d · cap now $96,211 · spot $775
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~20% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 12× | $796.00C Oct 23 '26 · 15d ✓ CC-safe | $0.69 | 0.10 | 92% T:16% | $-750.00 | $69,666 | $91,361 | — |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 12× | $798.00C Oct 21 '26 · 13d ✓ CC-safe | $0.32 | 0.05 | 96% T:9% | $-1,200 | $69,216 | $92,961 | — |
| ▶ ● BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 12× | $793.00C Oct 30 '26 · 22d ✓ CC-safe | $2.60 | 0.22 | 81% T:38% | +$1,542 | $71,958 | $90,579 | — |
ALL CANDIDATES (114) · Oct 08 '26 / Oct 09 '26 / Oct 12 '26 / Oct 13 '26 +9 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 23 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $16,662 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP MSTR · 4c · RetireInc:7291
✓ GREEKS RECOVERED (LC): IBKR initial fetch returned no modelGreeks for the above leg; retry pass resolved cleanly. Data is reliable.
⚠️
OPEN CC SPANS EARNINGS
2026-10-29 (Thu)
in 21 days
Your open $170.00 Nov 20 '26 CC is still live on the report date. Consider buying it back before 2026-10-29 to sidestep the gap, or confirm you want the exposure.
MARKET
STOCK$151.31RetireInc: 4centry ~$163.00 · -7.2%
CURRENT CC$170.00Nov 20 '26 · 43d
CC STATUSOTM 12.4%73% survT:57%hist 76%hist 46%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$161.00-6.4% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$163.80-8.3% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-5,650
CC BUYBACK-$2,880
CLOSE P/L$-8,530
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-5,650
STOCK @ $170.00$3,259
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$77/pt+0.19δ/sh
CC INC/MO$2,009
CALLS NET 90D$1.5k/mokeep 91% · 11 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$125.00C / -$185.00P / +$55.00P / -$170.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
+1.03 (earlier legs realized +0.83/sh, already banked) = +1.03/sh
(+$412.00 on 4c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $170.00 is 12.4% OTM. Safe. Earning $7.20/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-5,650 · at cap $3,259. Weekly gate: EXTENDED. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $171.42. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $185.00C Jan 15 '27 (99d) · +$15/sh room · net +$954.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $240.00C Mar 19 '27 (162d) · +$70/sh room · net +$134.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Nov 27 '26 (50d) · Dec 18 '26 (71d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $170.00C · Nov 20 '26 · 43d · cap now $3,259 · spot $151
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $170.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 25 of 50); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $21.02/sh now → $14.89 mid-life (likely $17.15–$21.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$10.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,621 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 17 of 50, at $173 (overshoots $3.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$170 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | -$0.46/sh | -$185 cycle +$1,395 [-$1,205…-$419] · 15% credit | 68% surv 55% | +$4,240 SAFE cap gain +$9,890 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$179 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | -$2.51/sh | -$1,004 cycle +$576 [-$1,925…-$1,251] · 6% credit | 73% surv 63% | +$7,501 SAFE cap gain +$13,151 |
| budget: banked $1,580 debit $1,004 (64% used) → whole cycle still +$576 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $3,229/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤71d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $170C Nov 27 '26 (50d) ⚠ earn +$170.00 73% T:59% flat -$5,480 · cap +$3,429 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income | — | — | — | $170C Dec 18 '26 (71d) ⚠ earn +$1,130 71% T:64% flat -$4,520 · cap +$4,389 +36% better outcome vs ≤20d · +21d |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $170C Nov 27 '26 (50d) ⚠ earn +$170.00 73% T:59% flat -$5,480 · cap +$3,429 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income | — | — | — | $185C Dec 18 '26 (71d) ⚠ earn -$130.00 80% T:44% flat -$5,780 · cap +$10,279 |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $170C Nov 27 '26 (50d) ⚠ earn +$170.00 73% T:59% flat -$5,480 · cap +$3,429 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income | — | — | — | $180C Dec 18 '26 (71d) ⚠ earn +$250.00 77% T:50% flat -$5,400 · cap +$8,276 |
ALL CANDIDATES (15) · Nov 27 '26 / Dec 18 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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✓ SKIP IGV · 12c · Main:1299 LEAPS-ONLY
MARKET
STOCK$110.34Main: 12centry ~$85.00 · +29.8%
CURRENT CC$115.00Oct 23 '26 · 15d
CC STATUSOTM 4.2%76% survT:50%hist 76%hist 44%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$96.50+12.5% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$88.25+20.0% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$23,520
CC BUYBACK-$1,242
CLOSE P/L$22,278
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$23,520
STOCK @ $115.00$28,695
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.93
CC INC/MO$2,484
CALLS NET 90D$744/mokeep 66% · 4 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$70.00C / -$115.00CLEAPS-only · LC / CC
CC LINEAGE
-2.76 (earlier legs realized +0.53/sh, already banked) = -2.76/sh
(-$3,312 on 12c) ·
DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · room was BOUGHT; a paid roll sits in the chain
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $115.00 is 4.2% OTM. Safe. Earning $1.04/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $23,520 · at cap $28,695. Weekly gate: EXTENDED. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $113.55. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $118.00C Nov 13 '26 (36d) · +$3/sh room · net +$738.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $145.00C Mar 19 '27 (162d) · +$30/sh room · net +$438.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $115.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 15d · cap now $28,695 · spot $110
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~16% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 12× | $130.00C Nov 20 '26 · 43d ✓ CC-safe | $0.43 | 0.06 | 94% T:13% | $-726.00 | $22,794 | $44,627 | at trip: ~-$1.01/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $114.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 29); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.95/sh now → $3.50 mid-life (likely $4.30–$5.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,904 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 29, at $115 (overshoots $1.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$114 | 20 Nov 2026 | 28d left | +$0.36/sh | +$430 cycle +$2,926 [-$387…+$118] · 31% credit | 66% surv 50% |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$114 | 13 Nov 2026 | 22d left | -$0.47/sh | -$567 cycle +$1,929 [-$1,442…-$921] · 5% credit | 64% surv 52% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$119 | 20 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$1.57/sh | -$1,881 cycle +$615 [-$3,056…-$2,382] · 1% credit | 76% surv 70% |
| budget: banked $2,496 debit $1,881 (75% used) → whole cycle still +$615 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,488/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | ||||||
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $115.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 29); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.00/sh now → $3.53 mid-life (likely $3.99–$5.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,642 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 29, at $116 (overshoots $1.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$115 | 20 Nov 2026 | 28d left | +$0.32/sh | +$378 cycle +$2,550 [-$391…+$253] · 37% credit | 66% surv 50% |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$115 | 13 Nov 2026 | 22d left | -$0.51/sh | -$614 cycle +$1,558 [-$1,425…-$793] · 7% credit | 64% surv 52% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$120 | 20 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$1.61/sh | -$1,931 cycle +$241 [-$3,035…-$2,238] · 1% credit | 76% surv 70% |
| budget: banked $2,172 debit $1,931 (89% used) → whole cycle still +$241 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,474/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | ||||||
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $114C Nov 06 '26 (29d) +$1,734 66% T:70% flat +$25,254 · cap +$29,319 ✓ CC-safe | — | = ★ | $115C Nov 20 '26 (43d) +$2,328 67% T:69% flat +$25,848 · cap +$31,023 +1pp surv for +14d | = |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $115C Nov 06 '26 (29d) +$1,326 70% T:63% flat +$24,846 · cap +$30,021 ✓ CC-safe | — | = ★ | $116C Nov 13 '26 (36d) +$1,500 71% T:61% flat +$25,020 · cap +$31,306 +1pp surv for +7d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (75) · Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 / Nov 20 '26 +1 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $115.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 15d · cap now $28,695 · spot $110
⚠ RE-STRIKE, NOT A HARVESTCurrent call is still live (delta 0.28, above the 0.20 harvest band): closing it costs $1.04/sh ($1,242 total). Every net credit below already nets that buyback; the price of the extra income is a LOWER cap.
NO HIGH-CONVICTION PICK: no candidate clears 65% survival with a viable credit. See table for trade-offs.
ALL CANDIDATES (2) · Oct 09 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 2 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $-1,284 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE | NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $114.00 ✓ CC-safe | Oct 16 '26 · 8d | $-420.00 | 76% | 48% |
| $112.00 ✓ CC-safe | Oct 09 '26 · 1d | $-864.00 | 78% | 45% |
✓ SKIP GLD · 10c · Main:1299
✓ GREEKS RECOVERED (LC, SP, HP, CC): IBKR initial fetch returned no modelGreeks for the above legs; retry pass resolved cleanly. Data is reliable.
MARKET
STOCK$378.07Main: 10centry ~$465.00 · -18.7%
CURRENT CC$409.00Dec 18 '26 · 71d
CC STATUSOTM 8.2%81% survT:40%hist 84%hist 37%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$456.00-20.6% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$471.12-24.6% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-124,950
CC BUYBACK-$5,100
CLOSE P/L$-130,050
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-124,950
STOCK @ $409.00$-77,911
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$521/pt+0.52δ/sh
CC INC/MO$2,155
CALLS NET 90D$1.3k/mokeep 88% · 5 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$320.00C / -$450.00P / +$330.00P / -$409.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
+3.22 (earlier legs realized +1.35, -0.09/sh, already banked) = +3.22/sh
(+$3,220 on 10c) ·
MIXED-BUILT · 3 rolls
since the last fresh write · credits and debits mixed; net shown
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $409.00 is 8.2% OTM. Safe. Earning $5.10/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-124,950 · at cap $-77,911. Weekly gate: PULLBACK. Reference 20W MA (bounce target) at $390.90. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $425.00C Feb 19 '27 (134d) · +$16/sh room · net +$1,710 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $454.00C Mar 31 '27 (174d) · +$45/sh room · net +$285.00 · under CC-SS
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 08 '26 (0d) · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 12 '26 (4d) · Oct 13 '26 (5d) · Oct 14 '26 (6d) · Oct 15 '26 (7d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 19 '26 (11d) · Oct 20 '26 (12d) · Oct 21 '26 (13d) · Oct 22 '26 (14d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d) · Dec 18 '26 (71d) · Dec 31 '26 (84d) · Jan 15 '27 (99d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $409.00C · Dec 18 '26 · 71d · cap now $-77,911 · spot $378
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ ◆ BEST BALANCE + SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 10× | $475.00C Jan 15 '27 · 99d ✓ CC-safe | $1.17 | 0.08 | 96% T:9% | $-3,925 | $-128,875 | $18,539 | at trip: ~-$6.74/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $409.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 42 of 84); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $21.88/sh now → $15.48 mid-life (likely $15.09–$20.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,281 simulated challenges: the $409 strike is typically first touched on day 37 of 84, at $412 (overshoots $2.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$409 | 15 Jan 2027 | 57d left | +$1.93/sh | +$1,934 cycle +$7,984 [+$1,531…+$2,480] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$77,000 NOT cap gain +$47,950 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$411 | 15 Jan 2027 | 57d left | +$1.91/sh | +$1,910 cycle +$7,960 [+$1,738…+$2,451] · 100% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$74,244 NOT cap gain +$50,706 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$411 | 15 Jan 2027 | 57d left | +$1.91/sh | +$1,910 cycle +$7,960 [+$1,738…+$2,451] · 100% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$74,244 NOT cap gain +$50,706 |
| SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$431 | 15 Jan 2027 | 57d left | -$5.94/sh | -$5,942 cycle +$108 [-$6,665…-$5,937] · 0% credit | 79% surv 72% | -$53,832 NOT cap gain +$71,118 |
| budget: banked $6,050 debit $5,942 (98% used) → whole cycle still +$108 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,020/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $480.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 42 of 84); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $34.37/sh now → $24.32 mid-life (likely $12.76–$23.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$23.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 76 simulated challenges: the $480 strike is typically first touched on day 63 of 84, at $484 (overshoots $3.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$480 | 15 Jan 2027 | 57d left | +$3.76/sh | +$3,762 cycle +$4,382 [+$4,618…+$6,765] · 100% credit | 69% surv 53% | +$15,330 SAFE cap gain +$140,280 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$487 | 15 Jan 2027 | 57d left | +$1.79/sh | +$1,788 cycle +$2,408 [+$2,412…+$4,249] · 100% credit | 71% surv 57% | +$22,022 SAFE cap gain +$146,972 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$487 | 15 Jan 2027 | 57d left | +$1.79/sh | +$1,788 cycle +$2,408 [+$2,412…+$4,249] · 100% credit | 71% surv 57% | +$22,022 SAFE cap gain +$146,972 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$492 | 15 Jan 2027 | 57d left | -$0.31/sh | -$315 cycle +$305 [+$175…+$2,130] · 83% credit | 72% surv 60% | +$26,101 SAFE cap gain +$151,051 |
| budget: banked $620 debit $315 (51% used) → whole cycle still +$305 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $12,636/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $414.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 42 of 84); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $22.68/sh now → $16.04 mid-life (likely $14.79–$21.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$10.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,088 simulated challenges: the $414 strike is typically first touched on day 41 of 84, at $417 (overshoots $3.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$414 | 15 Jan 2027 | 57d left | +$2.05/sh | +$2,048 cycle +$7,148 [+$1,718…+$2,838] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$70,652 NOT cap gain +$54,298 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$416 | 15 Jan 2027 | 57d left | +$2.06/sh | +$2,064 cycle +$7,164 [+$1,941…+$2,806] · 100% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$67,879 NOT cap gain +$57,071 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$416 | 15 Jan 2027 | 57d left | +$2.06/sh | +$2,064 cycle +$7,164 [+$1,941…+$2,806] · 100% credit | 70% surv 54% | -$67,879 NOT cap gain +$57,071 |
| SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$431 | 15 Jan 2027 | 57d left | -$4.41/sh | -$4,405 cycle +$695 [-$4,970…-$4,168] · 2% credit | 76% surv 67% | -$53,246 NOT cap gain +$71,704 |
| budget: banked $5,100 debit $4,405 (86% used) → whole cycle still +$695 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $6,126/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤99d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $409C Dec 31 '26 (84d) +$1,100 79% T:43% flat -$123,850 · cap -$76,811 ⚠ locks $78,290 if capped | — | — | — | $410C Jan 15 '27 (99d) +$2,225 78% T:45% flat -$122,725 · cap -$74,165 |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $480C Dec 31 '26 (84d) -$4,255 97% T:7% flat -$129,205 · cap +$25,813 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$7.66/sh | — | — | — | $490C Jan 15 '27 (99d) -$4,225 97% T:6% flat -$129,175 · cap +$41,051 |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $414C Dec 31 '26 (84d) +$125.00 82% T:36% flat -$124,825 · cap -$70,182 ⚠ locks $72,120 if capped ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$3.66/sh | — | — | — | $420C Jan 15 '27 (99d) +$325.00 84% T:34% flat -$124,625 · cap -$60,857 |
ALL CANDIDATES (87) · Dec 31 '26 / Jan 15 '27 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $409.00C · Dec 18 '26 · 71d · cap now $-77,911 · spot $378
HARVEST Stock $378.07 fell below your $409.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 44 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $396.00 at +$3,250 (70% surv, T:61%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 10× | $408.00C Oct 30 '26 · 22d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-82,942 if capped) | $0.84 | 0.09 | 92% T:16% | $-4,255 | $-129,205 | $-83,687 | ⚠ locks in $82,942 ($82.94/sh) loss if capped |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 10× | $407.00C Oct 23 '26 · 15d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-84,573 if capped) | $0.36 | 0.05 | 96% T:9% | $-4,735 | $-129,685 | $-85,688 | ⚠ locks in $84,573 ($84.57/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 10× | $403.00C Nov 20 '26 · 43d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-88,134 if capped) | $3.50 | 0.28 | 81% T:40% | $-1,600 | $-126,550 | $-88,636 | ⚠ locks in $88,134 ($88.13/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (184) · Oct 08 '26 / Oct 09 '26 / Oct 12 '26 / Oct 13 '26 +11 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 45 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $-99,440 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP MU · 2c · Neville:0865
MARKET
STOCK$1077.48Neville: 2centry ~$1235.00 · -12.8%
CURRENT CC$1,150.00Oct 16 '26 · 8d
CC STATUSOTM 6.7%83% survT:36%hist 84%hist 37%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$1220.00-13.2% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$1227.55-13.9% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-32,229
CC BUYBACK-$1,835
CLOSE P/L$-34,064
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-32,229
STOCK @ $1,150.00$-16,211
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$21/pt+0.10δ/sh
CC INC/MO$6,881
CALLS NET 90D$15.3k/mokeep 81% · 21 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$970.00C / -$1,110.00P / +$390.00P / -$1,150.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
+9.06 (earlier legs realized +4.70/sh, already banked) = +9.06/sh
(+$1,812 on 2c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $1150.00 is 6.7% OTM. Safe. Earning $9.18/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-32,229 · at cap $-16,211. Weekly gate: EXTENDED. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $1153.33. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $1,180.00C Oct 23 '26 (15d) · +$30/sh room · net +$202.00 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $1,440.00C Dec 18 '26 (71d) · +$290/sh room · net +$1,222
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 12 '26 (4d) · Oct 14 '26 (6d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 19 '26 (11d) · Oct 21 '26 (13d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $1,150.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 8d · cap now $-16,211 · spot $1,077
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~16% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 2× | $1390.00C Nov 20 '26 · 43d ✓ CC-safe | $7.72 | 0.09 | 94% T:13% | $-290.00 | $-32,519 | $36,512 | at trip: ~-$7.26/sh |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~10% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 2× | $1440.00C Nov 20 '26 · 43d ✓ CC-safe | $5.53 | 0.07 | 95% T:9% | $-730.00 | $-32,959 | $47,116 | at trip: ~-$11.60/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $1150.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $54.68/sh now → $38.68 mid-life (likely $42.13–$57.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $22.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$16.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,420 simulated challenges: the $1,150 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 22, at $1,167 (overshoots $16.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,188 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$9.07/sh | +$1,815 cycle +$6,345 [+$281…+$1,770] · 83% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$3,014 NOT cap gain +$29,215 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,150 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$4.12/sh | +$824 cycle +$5,354 [-$25…+$891] · 73% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$11,750 NOT cap gain +$20,479 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,158 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.91/sh | +$181 cycle +$4,711 [-$733…+$165] · 30% credit | 68% surv 55% | -$10,766 NOT cap gain +$21,463 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,213 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$0.33/sh | +$67 cycle +$4,597 [-$1,686…-$143] · 24% credit | 74% surv 67% | +$643 SAFE cap gain +$32,872 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,303 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$22.50/sh | -$4,500 cycle +$30 [-$6,860…-$5,038] · 0% credit | 86% surv 84% | +$15,558 SAFE cap gain +$47,787 |
| budget: banked $4,530 debit $4,500 (99% used) → whole cycle still +$30 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $3,033/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $1180.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $56.11/sh now → $39.69 mid-life (likely $39.45–$57.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $16.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$23.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,054 simulated challenges: the $1,180 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 22, at $1,197 (overshoots $17.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,218 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$8.05/sh | +$1,609 cycle +$4,909 [+$223…+$2,010] · 83% credit | 72% surv 62% | +$2,035 SAFE cap gain +$34,264 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,180 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$3.13/sh | +$626 cycle +$3,926 [-$143…+$985] · 66% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$6,690 NOT cap gain +$25,539 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,183 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$1.89/sh | +$377 cycle +$3,677 [-$423…+$709] · 49% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$6,394 NOT cap gain +$25,835 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,238 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$0.93/sh | +$186 cycle +$3,486 [-$1,390…+$515] · 33% credit | 74% surv 66% | +$4,927 SAFE cap gain +$37,156 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,283 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$14.24/sh | -$2,848 cycle +$452 [-$4,648…-$2,795] · 4% credit | 80% surv 76% | +$11,687 SAFE cap gain +$43,916 |
| budget: banked $3,300 debit $2,848 (86% used) → whole cycle still +$452 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $4,771/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $1350.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $64.19/sh now → $45.40 mid-life (likely $30.36–$46.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.76/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$42.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 98 simulated challenges: the $1,350 strike is typically first touched on day 18 of 22, at $1,369 (overshoots $18.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,388 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$0.68/sh | +$136 cycle +$688 [+$744…+$2,809] · 86% credit | 71% surv 61% | +$34,290 SAFE cap gain +$66,519 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,350 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$3.54/sh | -$708 cycle -$156 [-$12…+$1,497] · 74% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$25,743 SAFE cap gain +$57,972 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,398 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | -$2.98/sh | -$597 cycle -$45 [-$53…+$2,037] · 73% credit | 73% surv 64% | +$35,688 SAFE cap gain +$67,917 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $1240.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $58.96/sh now → $41.70 mid-life (likely $34.91–$54.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$33.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 489 simulated challenges: the $1,240 strike is typically first touched on day 14 of 22, at $1,258 (overshoots $17.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,278 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$5.75/sh | +$1,149 cycle +$2,849 [+$217…+$2,184] · 79% credit | 71% surv 61% | +$12,901 SAFE cap gain +$45,130 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,240 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.98/sh | +$196 cycle +$1,896 [-$289…+$1,087] · 62% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$4,218 SAFE cap gain +$36,447 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,293 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$0.32/sh | +$64 cycle +$1,764 [-$1,004…+$1,036] · 46% credit | 73% surv 65% | +$15,038 SAFE cap gain +$47,267 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,318 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | -$7.44/sh | -$1,488 cycle +$212 [-$2,808…-$562] · 20% credit | 76% surv 70% | +$18,849 SAFE cap gain +$51,078 |
| budget: banked $1,700 debit $1,488 (88% used) → whole cycle still +$212 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $5,271/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $1150C Oct 30 '26 (22d) +$2,985 73% T:56% flat -$29,244 · cap -$13,226 ⚠ locks $12,156 if capped | $1150C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$1,285 77% T:48% flat -$30,944 · cap -$14,926 | $1150C Nov 06 '26 (29d) +$4,295 71% T:61% flat -$27,934 · cap -$11,916 -6pp surv for +14d | $1150C Nov 20 '26 (43d) +$6,685 69% T:67% flat -$25,544 · cap -$9,526 -2pp surv for +14d | $1150C Nov 27 '26 (50d) +$7,615 68% T:69% flat -$24,614 · cap -$8,596 -1pp surv for +7d · +22% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $1180C Oct 30 '26 (22d) +$1,645 79% T:43% flat -$30,584 · cap -$7,939 ⚠ locks $7,011 if capped at trip: ~+$18.21/sh | $1150C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$1,285 77% T:48% flat -$30,944 · cap -$14,926 | $1200C Nov 06 '26 (29d) +$1,950 80% T:41% flat -$30,279 · cap -$3,216 +4pp surv for +14d | $1230C Nov 20 '26 (43d) +$2,960 81% T:40% flat -$29,269 · cap +$4,420 +1pp surv for +14d | = |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $1350C Oct 30 '26 (22d) -$1,199 96% T:8% flat -$33,428 · cap +$26,767 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$14.19/sh | $1200C Oct 21 '26 (13d) -$670.00 90% T:21% flat -$32,899 · cap -$5,836 | = ★ | $1490C Nov 20 '26 (43d) -$975.00 97% T:7% flat -$33,204 · cap +$57,915 -1pp touch for +21d | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $1240C Oct 30 '26 (22d) $0 88% T:24% flat -$32,229 · cap +$3,669 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$0.96/sh | $1170C Oct 21 '26 (13d) +$185.00 84% T:32% flat -$32,044 · cap -$11,608 | = ★ | $1320C Nov 13 '26 (36d) +$60.00 91% T:20% flat -$32,169 · cap +$21,400 cap +$80 for +14d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (234) · Oct 19 '26 / Oct 21 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 +4 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $1,150.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 8d · cap now $-16,211 · spot $1,077
HARVEST Stock $1077.48 fell below your $1150.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 8 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $1,120.00 at +$1,065 (72% surv, T:57%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~20% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 2× | $1125.00C Oct 09 '26 · 1d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-21,659 if capped) | $1.56 | 0.10 | 92% T:16% | $-1,524 | $-33,753 | $-23,257 | ⚠ locks in $21,659 ($108.30/sh) loss if capped |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~8% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 2× | $1140.00C Oct 09 '26 · 1d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-18,563 if capped) | $0.83 | 0.05 | 96% T:8% | $-1,668 | $-33,897 | $-20,087 | ⚠ locks in $18,563 ($92.81/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 2× | $1145.00C Oct 16 '26 · 8d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-15,952 if capped) | $9.20 | 0.21 | 81% T:39% | +$5.00 | $-32,224 | $-17,310 | ⚠ locks in $15,952 ($79.76/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (16) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 12 '26 / Oct 14 '26 / Oct 16 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 8 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $-1,144 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP MSTR · 10c · Joint:1782BBC LEAPS-ONLY
⚠️
OPEN CC SPANS EARNINGS
2026-10-29 (Thu)
in 21 days
Your open $200.00 Jan 15 '27 CC is still live on the report date. Consider buying it back before 2026-10-29 to sidestep the gap, or confirm you want the exposure.
MARKET
STOCK$151.31Joint: 10centry ~$395.00 · -61.7%
CURRENT CC$200.00Jan 15 '27 · 99d
CC STATUSOTM 32.2%83% survT:38%hist 84%hist 37%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$233.00-54.0% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$183.85-21.5% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-13,825
CC BUYBACK-$7,850
CLOSE P/L$-21,675
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-13,825
STOCK @ $200.00$15,028
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.59
CC INC/MO$2,379
CALLS NET 90D$1.5k/mokeep 91% · 11 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$180.00C / -$200.00CLEAPS-only · LC / CC
CC LINEAGE
+0.15 (earlier legs realized +0.83/sh, already banked) = +0.15/sh
(+$150.00 on 10c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $200.00 is 32.2% OTM. Safe. Earning $7.85/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-13,825 · at cap $15,028. Weekly gate: EXTENDED. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $171.42. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $220.00C Mar 19 '27 (162d) · +$20/sh room · net +$1,935✓ DEEPEST FREE · $230.00C Mar 19 '27 (162d) · +$30/sh room · net +$710.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL-DOWN ONLY
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d) · Dec 18 '26 (71d) · Jan 15 '27 (99d)
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $200.00C · Jan 15 '27 · 99d · cap now $15,028 · spot $151
HARVEST Stock $151.31 fell below your $200.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 18 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $175.00 at +$3,975 (72% surv, T:62%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~17% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $195.00C Oct 30 '26 | roll down to 10× | $185.00C Oct 23 '26 · 15d ✓ CC-safe | $0.72 | 0.08 | 93% T:14% | $-7,135 | $-20,960 | $-995.55 | — |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 10× | $185.00C Nov 20 '26 · 43d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe | $3.85 | 0.21 | 84% T:35% | $-4,000 | $-17,825 | $2,139 | — |
ALL CANDIDATES (28) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 20 '26 +1 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 16 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $-53,835 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP HIMS · 15c · Main:1299
✓ GREEKS RECOVERED (LC, SP, HP, CC): IBKR initial fetch returned no modelGreeks for the above legs; retry pass resolved cleanly. Data is reliable.
MARKET
STOCK$29.42Main: 15centry ~$20.00 · +47.1%
CURRENT CC$32.50Oct 16 '26 · 8d
CC STATUSOTM 10.5%83% survT:34%hist 84%hist 37%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$17.47+40.6% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$18.74+36.3% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$18,450
CC BUYBACK-$540.00
CLOSE P/L$17,910
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$18,450
STOCK @ $32.50$23,632
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$182/pt+0.12δ/sh
CC INC/MO$2,025
CALLS NET 90D$1.2k/mokeep 85% · 8 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$10.00C / -$20.00P / +$5.00P / -$32.50CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $32.50 is 10.5% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.36/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $18,450 · at cap $23,632. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $36.49. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $35.00C Nov 06 '26 (29d) · +$2/sh room · net +$705.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $46.00C Feb 19 '27 (134d) · +$14/sh room · net +$1,860
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $32.50C · Oct 16 '26 · 8d · cap now $23,632 · spot $29.42
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~18% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 15× | $38.00C Oct 30 '26 · 22d ✓ CC-safe | $0.20 | 0.09 | 93% T:15% | $-247.50 | $18,203 | $32,637 | at trip: ~-$0.28/sh |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 15× | $40.00C Oct 30 '26 · 22d ✓ CC-safe | $0.15 | 0.05 | 96% T:9% | $-322.50 | $18,128 | $35,926 | at trip: ~-$0.53/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $31.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.94/sh now → $1.37 mid-life (likely $1.71–$2.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,870 simulated challenges: the $31 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 22, at $32 (overshoots $0.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$34 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.28/sh | +$427 cycle +$1,927 [+$44…+$264] · 80% credit | 76% surv 68% | +$27,422 SAFE cap gain +$8,972 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$31 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.15/sh | +$232 cycle +$1,732 [-$76…+$106] · 52% credit | 65% surv 53% | +$22,901 SAFE cap gain +$4,451 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$35 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.06/sh | +$85 cycle +$1,585 [-$350…-$101] · 15% credit | 78% surv 73% | +$28,726 SAFE cap gain +$10,276 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$37 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$0.98/sh | -$1,466 cycle +$34 [-$2,142…-$1,739] | 88% surv 86% | +$30,395 SAFE cap gain +$11,945 |
| budget: banked $1,500 debit $1,466 (98% used) → whole cycle still +$34 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $991/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $33.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.07/sh now → $1.46 mid-life (likely $1.54–$2.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,140 simulated challenges: the $33 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 22, at $34 (overshoots $0.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$36 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.26/sh | +$384 cycle +$1,344 [+$33…+$360] · 79% credit | 75% surv 68% | +$30,123 SAFE cap gain +$11,673 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$33 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$150 cycle +$1,110 [-$121…+$171] · 49% credit | 65% surv 53% | +$25,600 SAFE cap gain +$7,150 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$37 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.03/sh | +$40 cycle +$1,000 [-$360…-$13] · 24% credit | 78% surv 72% | +$31,412 SAFE cap gain +$12,962 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$41 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | -$0.62/sh | -$937 cycle +$23 [-$1,605…-$1,039] · 1% credit | 84% surv 82% | +$36,934 SAFE cap gain +$18,484 |
| budget: banked $960 debit $937 (98% used) → whole cycle still +$23 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $967/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $31C Oct 30 '26 (22d) +$1,200 65% T:73% flat +$19,650 · cap +$22,308 ✓ CC-safe | $31C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$727.50 67% T:68% flat +$19,178 · cap +$21,836 | $32C Nov 06 '26 (29d) +$1,523 70% T:65% flat +$19,973 · cap +$24,313 +2pp surv for +14d | $32C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$2,588 67% T:72% flat +$21,038 · cap +$25,378 -2pp surv for +14d | = |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $33C Oct 30 '26 (22d) +$510.00 78% T:47% flat +$18,960 · cap +$24,983 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$1.00/sh | $32.5C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$225.00 78% T:46% flat +$18,675 · cap +$23,857 | $36C Nov 06 '26 (29d) +$495.00 85% T:32% flat +$18,945 · cap +$30,015 +7pp surv for +14d | $34C Nov 06 '26 (29d) +$1,073 79% T:46% flat +$19,523 · cap +$27,228 -7pp surv for +0d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (58) · Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +2 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $32.50C · Oct 16 '26 · 8d · cap now $23,632 · spot $29.42
⚠ RE-STRIKE, NOT A HARVESTCurrent call is still live (delta 0.21, above the 0.20 harvest band): closing it costs $0.36/sh ($540 total). Every net credit below already nets that buyback; the price of the extra income is a LOWER cap.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 15× | $31.00C Oct 09 '26 · 1d ✓ CC-safe | $0.06 | 0.10 | 87% T:26% | $-450.00 | $18,000 | $20,658 | — |
ALL CANDIDATES (2) · Oct 09 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 1 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $-127.50 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE | NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $32.00 ✓ CC-safe | Oct 16 '26 · 8d | $-127.50 | 80% | 42% |
✓ SKIP DELL · 3c · Main:1299
✓ GREEKS RECOVERED (HP): IBKR initial fetch returned no modelGreeks for the above leg; retry pass resolved cleanly. Data is reliable.
MARKET
STOCK$566.71Main: 3centry ~$567.00 · -0.1%
CURRENT CC$650.00Oct 30 '26 · 22d
CC STATUSOTM 14.7%85% survT:31%hist 84%hist 37%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$562.50+0.7% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$569.71-0.5% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-427.50
CC BUYBACK-$2,385
CLOSE P/L$-2,812
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-427.50
STOCK @ $650.00$25,497
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$11/pt+0.04δ/sh
CC INC/MO$3,252
CALLS NET 90D$4.2k/mokeep 89% · 11 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$310.00C / -$400.00P / +$320.00P / -$650.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
+0.42 (earlier legs realized +7.00/sh, already banked) = +0.42/sh
(+$126.00 on 3c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $650.00 is 14.7% OTM. Safe. Earning $7.95/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-427.50 · at cap $25,497. Weekly gate: OVERBOUGHT. Reference Upper BB + 1σ (extension cap) at $634.73. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $680.00C Nov 06 '26 (29d) · +$30/sh room · net +$55.50✓ DEEPEST FREE · $820.00C Dec 18 '26 (71d) · +$170/sh room · net +$730.50
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $650.00C · Oct 30 '26 · 22d · cap now $25,497 · spot $567
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 3× | $730.00C Nov 13 '26 · 36d ✓ CC-safe | $5.80 | 0.12 | 93% T:15% | $-645.00 | $-1,072 | $49,753 | at trip: ~-$5.03/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $600.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 18 of 36); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $49.41/sh now → $34.96 mid-life (likely $43.33–$53.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $28.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 2,007 simulated challenges: the $600 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 36, at $611 (overshoots $10.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$608 | 27 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$5.60/sh | +$1,681 cycle +$10,351 [+$407…+$1,100] · 90% credit | 70% surv 57% | +$22,084 SAFE cap gain +$22,512 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$618 | 27 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$1.20/sh | +$359 cycle +$9,029 [-$1,068…-$295] · 17% credit | 72% surv 60% | +$23,918 SAFE cap gain +$24,346 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$600 | 20 Nov 2026 | 25d left | -$2.02/sh | -$605 cycle +$8,065 [-$2,164…-$1,296] · 7% credit | 67% surv 53% | +$17,251 SAFE cap gain +$17,678 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$713 | 20 Nov 2026 | 25d left | -$28.55/sh | -$8,565 cycle +$105 [-$11,925…-$10,113] | 90% surv 89% | +$44,902 SAFE cap gain +$45,329 |
| budget: banked $8,670 debit $8,565 (99% used) → whole cycle still +$105 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $2,307/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $650.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 18 of 36); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $53.52/sh now → $37.87 mid-life (likely $36.82–$52.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $14.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$22.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,058 simulated challenges: the $650 strike is typically first touched on day 18 of 36, at $661 (overshoots $11.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$658 | 27 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$3.52/sh | +$1,055 cycle +$5,525 [-$34…+$1,409] · 73% credit | 70% surv 56% | +$33,019 SAFE cap gain +$33,446 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$663 | 27 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$1.24/sh | +$373 cycle +$4,843 [-$772…+$660] · 40% credit | 71% surv 58% | +$33,909 SAFE cap gain +$34,337 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$650 | 20 Nov 2026 | 25d left | -$4.45/sh | -$1,334 cycle +$3,136 [-$2,602…-$961] · 13% credit | 67% surv 53% | +$28,069 SAFE cap gain +$28,496 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$703 | 27 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$13.51/sh | -$4,052 cycle +$418 [-$5,795…-$4,055] · 1% credit | 78% surv 71% | +$42,045 SAFE cap gain +$42,472 |
| budget: banked $4,470 debit $4,052 (91% used) → whole cycle still +$418 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $6,853/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $600C Nov 13 '26 (36d) +$6,780 66% T:73% flat +$6,352 · cap +$16,714 ✓ CC-safe | — | $600C Nov 06 '26 (29d) +$5,318 66% T:72% flat +$4,890 · cap +$15,252 | $600C Nov 20 '26 (43d) +$8,302 65% T:75% flat +$7,875 · cap +$18,237 -1pp surv for +14d | $605C Nov 27 '26 (50d) ⚠ earn +$9,705 66% T:75% flat +$9,277 · cap +$21,196 +1pp surv for +7d · +35% better outcome vs ≤20d · +14d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $650C Nov 13 '26 (36d) +$2,572 80% T:42% flat +$2,145 · cap +$28,070 ✓ CC-safe | — | $645C Nov 06 '26 (29d) +$1,770 80% T:43% flat +$1,342 · cap +$25,711 | $670C Nov 20 '26 (43d) +$2,543 82% T:38% flat +$2,115 · cap +$34,265 +3pp surv for +14d | $660C Nov 20 '26 (43d) +$3,165 80% T:42% flat +$2,738 · cap +$31,775 -2pp surv for +0d |
ALL CANDIDATES (82) · Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 / Nov 20 '26 / Nov 27 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $650.00C · Oct 30 '26 · 22d · cap now $25,497 · spot $567
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~20% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 3× | $635.00C Oct 16 '26 · 8d ✓ CC-safe | $2.88 | 0.12 | 92% T:16% | $-1,520 | $-1,947 | $19,309 | — |
| ▶ ● BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 3× | $635.00C Oct 30 '26 · 22d ✓ CC-safe | $11.45 | 0.26 | 81% T:39% | +$1,050 | $622.50 | $21,878 | — |
ALL CANDIDATES (20) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 10 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $7,020 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP IREN · 20c · Main:1299
⚠️
OPEN CC SPANS EARNINGS
2026-11-05 (Thu)
in 28 days
Your open $49.00 Nov 20 '26 CC is still live on the report date. Consider buying it back before 2026-11-05 to sidestep the gap, or confirm you want the exposure.
MARKET
STOCK$37.44Main: 20centry ~$45.00 · -16.8%
CURRENT CC$49.00Nov 20 '26 · 43d
CC STATUSOTM 30.9%86% survT:31%hist 84%hist 37%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$44.00-17.5% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$49.26-31.6% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-21,300
CC BUYBACK-$2,490
CLOSE P/L$-23,790
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-21,300
STOCK @ $49.00$-516.74
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.90
CC INC/MO$1,737
CALLS NET 90D$2.2k/mokeep 21% · 41 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$25.00C / -$47.00P / +$35.00P / -$49.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
+0.18 (earlier legs realized -0.47/sh, already banked) = +0.18/sh
(+$360.00 on 20c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $49.00 is 30.9% OTM. Safe. Earning $1.25/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-21,300 · at cap $-516.74. Weekly gate: PULLBACK. Reference 20W MA (bounce target) at $44.65. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $55.00C Dec 18 '26 (71d) · +$6/sh room · net +$60.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $70.00C Mar 19 '27 (162d) · +$21/sh room · net +$1,660
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d) · Dec 18 '26 (71d)
⚠ No roll is CC-safe — the CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so a cap anywhere locks a from-entry loss if assigned. That loss is already locked by the current CC, so recommendations below rank roll-ups against the current cap instead (every strike up improves P/L @ CAP — see CAP GAIN). All rows tagged ✕CC-safe for reference.
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $49.00C · Nov 20 '26 · 43d · cap now $-516.74 · spot $37.44
NO HIGH-CONVICTION PICK: no candidate clears 65% survival with a viable credit. See table for trade-offs.
ALL CANDIDATES (19) · Nov 27 '26 / Dec 18 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $49.00C · Nov 20 '26 · 43d · cap now $-516.74 · spot $37.44
HARVEST Stock $37.44 fell below your $49.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 11 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $42.00 at +$2,300 (71% surv, T:64%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~20% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 20× | $46.50C Oct 23 '26 · 15d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-4,159 if capped) | $0.26 | 0.10 | 92% T:16% | $-1,980 | $-23,280 | $-6,991 | ⚠ locks in $4,159 ($2.08/sh) loss if capped |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~10% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 20× | $46.00C Oct 16 '26 · 8d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-5,171 if capped) | $0.11 | 0.05 | 95% T:9% | $-2,280 | $-23,580 | $-8,190 | ⚠ locks in $5,171 ($2.59/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 20× | $47.00C Nov 20 '26 · 43d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 05 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-2,057 if capped) | $1.42 | 0.25 | 83% T:38% | +$340.00 | $-20,960 | $-3,772 | ⚠ locks in $2,057 ($1.03/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (32) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Nov 06 '26 +2 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 10 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $-1,120 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP IREN · 20c · Joint:1782
⚠️
OPEN CC SPANS EARNINGS
2026-11-05 (Thu)
in 28 days
Your open $49.00 Nov 20 '26 CC is still live on the report date. Consider buying it back before 2026-11-05 to sidestep the gap, or confirm you want the exposure.
MARKET
STOCK$37.44Joint: 20centry ~$45.00 · -16.8%
CURRENT CC$49.00Nov 20 '26 · 43d
CC STATUSOTM 30.9%86% survT:31%hist 84%hist 37%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$44.00-17.5% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$49.26-31.6% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-21,300
CC BUYBACK-$2,490
CLOSE P/L$-23,790
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-21,300
STOCK @ $49.00$-516.74
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.90
CC INC/MO$1,737
CALLS NET 90D$2.2k/mokeep 21% · 41 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$25.00C / -$47.00P / +$35.00P / -$49.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
+0.18 (earlier legs realized -0.47/sh, already banked) = +0.18/sh
(+$360.00 on 20c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $49.00 is 30.9% OTM. Safe. Earning $1.25/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-21,300 · at cap $-516.74. Weekly gate: PULLBACK. Reference 20W MA (bounce target) at $44.65. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $55.00C Dec 18 '26 (71d) · +$6/sh room · net +$60.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $70.00C Mar 19 '27 (162d) · +$21/sh room · net +$1,660
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d) · Dec 18 '26 (71d)
⚠ No roll is CC-safe — the CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so a cap anywhere locks a from-entry loss if assigned. That loss is already locked by the current CC, so recommendations below rank roll-ups against the current cap instead (every strike up improves P/L @ CAP — see CAP GAIN). All rows tagged ✕CC-safe for reference.
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $49.00C · Nov 20 '26 · 43d · cap now $-516.74 · spot $37.44
NO HIGH-CONVICTION PICK: no candidate clears 65% survival with a viable credit. See table for trade-offs.
ALL CANDIDATES (19) · Nov 27 '26 / Dec 18 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $49.00C · Nov 20 '26 · 43d · cap now $-516.74 · spot $37.44
HARVEST Stock $37.44 fell below your $49.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 11 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $42.00 at +$2,300 (71% surv, T:64%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~20% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 20× | $46.50C Oct 23 '26 · 15d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-4,159 if capped) | $0.26 | 0.10 | 92% T:16% | $-1,980 | $-23,280 | $-6,991 | ⚠ locks in $4,159 ($2.08/sh) loss if capped |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~10% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 20× | $46.00C Oct 16 '26 · 8d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-5,171 if capped) | $0.11 | 0.05 | 95% T:9% | $-2,280 | $-23,580 | $-8,190 | ⚠ locks in $5,171 ($2.59/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 20× | $47.00C Nov 20 '26 · 43d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 05 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-2,057 if capped) | $1.42 | 0.25 | 83% T:38% | +$340.00 | $-20,960 | $-3,772 | ⚠ locks in $2,057 ($1.03/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (32) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Nov 06 '26 +2 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 10 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $-1,120 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP COIN · 25c · Main:1299BBC
MARKET
STOCK$176.59Main: 25centry ~$330.00 · -46.5%
CURRENT CC$200.00Oct 23 '26 · 15d
CC STATUSOTM 13.3%86% survT:29%hist 84%hist 30%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$563.00-218.8% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$382.95-116.9% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-203,687
CC BUYBACK-$4,850
CLOSE P/L$-208,537
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-203,687
STOCK @ $200.00$-190,705
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.22
CC INC/MO$9,700
CALLS NET 90D$6.4k/mokeep 74% · 21 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$500.00C / -$330.00P / +$300.00P / -$200.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
+2.68 (earlier legs realized +1.68/sh, already banked) = +2.68/sh
(+$6,700 on 25c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $200.00 is 13.3% OTM. Safe. Earning $1.94/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-203,687 · at cap $-190,705. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $200.09. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $207.50C Oct 30 '26 (22d) · +$8/sh room · net +$2,038 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $270.00C Mar 19 '27 (162d) · +$70/sh room · net +$15,925 · under CC-SS
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d)
⚠ No roll is CC-safe — the CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so a cap anywhere locks a from-entry loss if assigned. That loss is already locked by the current CC, so recommendations below rank roll-ups against the current cap instead (every strike up improves P/L @ CAP — see CAP GAIN). All rows tagged ✕CC-safe for reference.
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $200.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 15d · cap now $-190,705 · spot $177
SAFEST VIABLE · $207.5 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $14.11/sh now → $9.98 mid-life (likely $8.85–$13.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 701 simulated challenges: the $208 strike is typically first touched on day 13 of 22, at $212 (overshoots $4.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$231 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$1.32/sh | -$3,310 cycle +$2,265 [-$6,219…-$885] · 20% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$173,081 NOT cap gain +$30,606 |
| budget: banked $5,575 debit $3,310 (59% used) → whole cycle still +$2,265 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $20,291/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $230.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $17.01/sh now → $12.04 mid-life (likely $8.38–$14.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 173 simulated challenges: the $230 strike is typically first touched on day 16 of 22, at $235 (overshoots $4.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$253 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$0.16/sh | -$405 cycle +$1,620 [-$810…+$6,624] · 62% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$155,690 NOT cap gain +$47,997 |
| budget: banked $2,025 debit $405 (20% used) → whole cycle still +$1,620 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $27,836/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $210.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $14.42/sh now → $10.20 mid-life (likely $8.47–$13.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 583 simulated challenges: the $210 strike is typically first touched on day 13 of 22, at $214 (overshoots $4.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$233 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$1.21/sh | -$3,017 cycle +$1,608 [-$5,260…+$215] · 28% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$171,856 NOT cap gain +$31,832 |
| budget: banked $4,625 debit $3,017 (65% used) → whole cycle still +$1,608 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $21,080/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $202.5C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$7,150 79% T:44% flat -$196,537 · cap -$182,169 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ⚠ locks $180,514 if capped at trip: ~+$7.59/sh | — | = ★ | $200C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$12,338 76% T:52% flat -$191,350 · cap -$178,368 -3pp surv for +14d | = |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $207.5C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn +$3,688 85% T:31% flat -$200,000 · cap -$182,858 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ⚠ locks $179,735 if capped at trip: ~+$3.42/sh | — | = ★ | $202.5C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn +$3,963 82% T:38% flat -$199,725 · cap -$185,356 -3pp surv for +0d | = |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $230C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn -$2,238 94% T:12% flat -$205,925 · cap -$176,304 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ⚠ locks $169,595 if capped at trip: ~-$1.88/sh | — | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $210C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn +$575.00 87% T:27% flat -$203,112 · cap -$184,584 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ⚠ locks $181,188 if capped ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$2.60/sh | — | = ★ | = ★ | $250C Nov 27 '26 (50d) ⚠ earn +$1,412 93% T:16% flat -$202,275 · cap -$161,562 cap +$40 for +28d |
CANDIDATES (16 of 58) · Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 20 '26 / Nov 27 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $200.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 15d · cap now $-190,705 · spot $177
HARVEST Stock $176.59 fell below your $200.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 4 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $187.50 at +$3,650 (72% surv, T:59%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~17% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 25× | $187.50C Oct 09 '26 · 1d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-197,239 if capped) | $0.21 | 0.05 | 93% T:14% | $-4,338 | $-208,025 | $-201,976 | ⚠ locks in $197,239 ($78.90/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 25× | $195.00C Oct 23 '26 · 15d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-190,108 if capped) | $2.01 | 0.19 | 81% T:39% | +$187.50 | $-203,500 | $-193,291 | ⚠ locks in $190,108 ($76.04/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (9) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 2 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $462.50 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE | NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● $192.50 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-190,675 if capped) | Oct 23 '26 · 15d | $1,075 | 78% | 45% |
| $187.50 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-194,365 if capped) | Oct 16 '26 · 8d | $-612.50 | 77% | 48% |
✓ SKIP NVDA · 10c · Main:1299
✓ GREEKS RECOVERED (HP): IBKR initial fetch returned no modelGreeks for the above leg; retry pass resolved cleanly. Data is reliable.
MARKET
STOCK$234.25Main: 10centry ~$228.00 · +2.7%
CURRENT CC$250.00Oct 23 '26 · 15d
CC STATUSOTM 6.7%88% survT:25%hist 84%hist 30%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$264.80-13.0% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$230.06+1.8% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$3,950
CC BUYBACK-$965.00
CLOSE P/L$2,985
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$3,950
STOCK @ $250.00$16,637
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.81
CC INC/MO$1,930
CALLS NET 90D$1.9k/mokeep 99% · 5 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$215.00C / -$225.00P / +$200.00P / -$250.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
-3.18 (earlier legs realized +0.76/sh, already banked) = -3.18/sh
(-$3,180 on 10c) ·
DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · room was BOUGHT; a paid roll sits in the chain
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $250.00 is 6.7% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.96/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $3,950 · at cap $16,637. Weekly gate: EXTENDED. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $238.24. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $260.00C Nov 13 '26 (36d) · +$10/sh room · net +$440.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $315.00C Mar 19 '27 (162d) · +$65/sh room · net +$2,470
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 12 '26 (4d) · Oct 14 '26 (6d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 19 '26 (11d) · Oct 21 '26 (13d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $250.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 15d · cap now $16,637 · spot $234
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~20% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $275.00C Nov 20 '26 | roll to 10× | $265.00C Nov 13 '26 · 36d ✓ CC-safe | $0.95 | 0.10 | 92% T:16% | $-20.00 | $3,930 | $28,695 | at trip: ~-$0.32/sh |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~8% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 10× | $275.00C Nov 13 '26 · 36d ✓ CC-safe | $0.43 | 0.05 | 96% T:8% | $-535.00 | $3,415 | $36,233 | at trip: ~-$2.01/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $250.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 29); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.90/sh now → $6.29 mid-life (likely $6.31–$8.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,116 simulated challenges: the $250 strike is typically first touched on day 14 of 29, at $252 (overshoots $2.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$251 | 20 Nov 2026 | 28d left | +$2.73/sh | +$2,733 cycle +$5,133 [+$2,247…+$2,820] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | +$20,524 SAFE cap gain +$16,574 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$250 | 13 Nov 2026 | 22d left | +$0.31/sh | +$308 cycle +$2,708 [-$187…+$519] · 55% credit | 67% surv 51% | +$17,789 SAFE cap gain +$13,839 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$251 | 13 Nov 2026 | 22d left | +$0.21/sh | +$210 cycle +$2,610 [-$237…+$390] · 49% credit | 68% surv 53% | +$18,316 SAFE cap gain +$14,366 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$256 | 20 Nov 2026 | 28d left | +$0.36/sh | +$365 cycle +$2,765 [-$292…+$361] · 48% credit | 73% surv 62% | +$22,323 SAFE cap gain +$18,373 |
| SS $265 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$261 | 20 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$1.55/sh | -$1,550 cycle +$850 [-$2,492…-$1,638] · 3% credit | 77% surv 70% | +$24,626 SAFE cap gain +$20,676 |
| budget: banked $2,400 debit $1,550 (65% used) → whole cycle still +$850 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,081/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $250.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 21 of 43); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $12.55/sh now → $8.88 mid-life (likely $9.56–$12.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,574 simulated challenges: the $250 strike is typically first touched on day 17 of 43, at $253 (overshoots $2.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$250 | 27 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$0.70/sh | -$702 cycle +$4,548 [-$1,649…-$736] · 12% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$18,996 SAFE cap gain +$15,046 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$256 | 27 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$3.47/sh | -$3,471 cycle +$1,779 [-$4,871…-$3,732] · 1% credit | 71% surv 62% | +$21,023 SAFE cap gain +$17,073 |
| budget: banked $5,250 debit $3,471 (66% used) → whole cycle still +$1,779 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,790/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $270.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 29); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $9.61/sh now → $6.79 mid-life (likely $4.43–$7.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 202 simulated challenges: the $270 strike is typically first touched on day 21 of 29, at $272 (overshoots $2.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$271 | 20 Nov 2026 | 28d left | +$1.96/sh | +$1,957 cycle +$2,337 [+$1,794…+$3,186] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | +$34,684 SAFE cap gain +$30,734 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$270 | 13 Nov 2026 | 22d left | -$0.57/sh | -$573 cycle -$193 [-$563…+$837] · 51% credit | 66% surv 51% | +$31,809 SAFE cap gain +$27,859 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $260.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 29); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $9.25/sh now → $6.54 mid-life (likely $5.05–$8.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 474 simulated challenges: the $260 strike is typically first touched on day 18 of 29, at $262 (overshoots $2.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$261 | 20 Nov 2026 | 28d left | +$2.36/sh | +$2,364 cycle +$3,304 [+$2,031…+$3,155] · 100% credit | 68% surv 53% | +$27,080 SAFE cap gain +$23,130 |
| SS $265 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$260 | 13 Nov 2026 | 22d left | -$0.12/sh | -$116 cycle +$824 [-$385…+$815] · 52% credit | 66% surv 51% | +$24,273 SAFE cap gain +$20,323 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$266 | 20 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$0.04/sh | -$43 cycle +$897 [-$562…+$632] · 45% credit | 73% surv 62% | +$28,937 SAFE cap gain +$24,987 |
| budget: banked $940 debit $43 (5% used) → whole cycle still +$897 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $6,965/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $250C Nov 06 '26 (29d) +$1,460 81% T:40% flat +$5,410 · cap +$18,097 ✓ CC-safe | — | = ★ | $250C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$4,310 74% T:55% flat +$8,260 · cap +$20,947 -7pp surv for +14d | $250C Nov 27 '26 (50d) ⚠ earn +$6,260 72% T:58% flat +$10,210 · cap +$22,897 -1pp surv for +7d · +74% better outcome vs ≤20d · +21d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $250C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$4,310 74% T:55% flat +$8,260 · cap +$20,947 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 17 ✓ CC-safe | — | — | = ★ | = ★ |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $270C Nov 06 '26 (29d) -$565.00 96% T:8% flat +$3,385 · cap +$32,176 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$1.86/sh | — | = ★ | $275C Nov 13 '26 (36d) -$535.00 96% T:8% flat +$3,415 · cap +$36,233 ≈ same touch for +7d | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $260C Nov 06 '26 (29d) $0 91% T:18% flat +$3,950 · cap +$24,689 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$0.16/sh | — | = ★ | $275C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$170.00 93% T:15% flat +$4,120 · cap +$36,938 cap +$15 for +14d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (43) · Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 / Nov 20 '26 +1 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $250.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 15d · cap now $16,637 · spot $234
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~14% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 10× | $247.50C Oct 14 '26 · 6d ✓ CC-safe | $0.24 | 0.07 | 94% T:12% | $-725.00 | $3,225 | $13,898 | — |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~10% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 10× | $245.00C Oct 12 '26 · 4d ✓ CC-safe | $0.15 | 0.06 | 95% T:10% | $-820.00 | $3,130 | $11,790 | — |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) ▸ if challenged | roll down to 10× | $245.00C Oct 21 '26 · 13d ✓ CC-safe | $1.33 | 0.21 | 81% T:38% | +$370.00 | $4,320 | $12,980 | — |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $245.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 6 of 13); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.60/sh now → $3.96 mid-life (likely $3.87–$5.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 906 simulated challenges: the $245 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 13, at $247 (overshoots $2.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$245 | 23 Oct 2026 | 8d left | -$3.07/sh | -$3,066 cycle -$1,866 [-$4,525…-$2,971] | 55% surv 51% | +$10,051 SAFE cap gain +$6,101 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ALL CANDIDATES (16) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 12 '26 / Oct 14 '26 / Oct 16 '26 +3 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 5 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $2,635 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP CRWV · 5c · Neville:0865
✓ GREEKS RECOVERED (LC, HP): IBKR initial fetch returned no modelGreeks for the above legs; retry pass resolved cleanly. Data is reliable.
MARKET
STOCK$85.19Neville: 5centry ~$128.00 · -33.4%
CURRENT CC$100.00Oct 23 '26 · 15d
CC STATUSOTM 17.4%88% survT:25%hist 84%hist 30%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$125.45-47.3% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$127.75-49.9% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-22,445
CC BUYBACK-$452.50
CLOSE P/L$-22,898
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-22,445
STOCK @ $100.00$-14,373
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$45/pt+0.09δ/sh
CC INC/MO$905.00
CALLS NET 90D$698/mokeep 72% · 6 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$105.00C / -$120.00P / +$40.00P / -$100.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
-1.42 (earlier legs realized +0.91/sh, already banked) = -1.42/sh
(-$710.00 on 5c) ·
DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · room was BOUGHT; a paid roll sits in the chain
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $100.00 is 17.4% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.91/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-22,445 · at cap $-14,373. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $113.85. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $105.00C Oct 30 '26 (22d) · +$5/sh room · net +$20.00 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $140.00C Mar 19 '27 (162d) · +$40/sh room · net +$1,865
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $100.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 15d · cap now $-14,373 · spot $85.19
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~20% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe richer door past earnings: $130.00C Nov 20 '26 | roll to 5× | $108.00C Oct 30 '26 · 22d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-10,106 if capped) | $0.74 | 0.11 | 92% T:16% | $-80.00 | $-22,525 | $-10,092 | ⚠ locks in $10,106 ($20.21/sh) loss if capped at trip: ~+$0.12/sh |
| ◆ ↗ SAFER + ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe ▸ if challenged | roll to 5× | $115.00C Oct 30 '26 · 22d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-6,553 if capped) | $0.43 | 0.07 | 96% T:9% | $-237.50 | $-22,682 | $-6,433 | ⚠ locks in $6,553 ($13.11/sh) loss if capped at trip: ~-$1.38/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $100.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.58/sh now → $4.66 mid-life (likely $4.26–$6.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 710 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 13 of 22, at $102 (overshoots $2.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$100 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.68/sh | +$338 cycle +$1,053 [+$199…+$514] · 98% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$13,716 NOT cap gain +$8,729 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$109 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$0.76/sh | +$382 cycle +$1,097 [+$29…+$534] · 78% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$9,106 NOT cap gain +$13,339 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$101 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.31/sh | +$154 cycle +$869 [-$7…+$305] · 73% credit | 68% surv 55% | -$13,471 NOT cap gain +$8,974 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$112 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$0.01/sh | +$7 cycle +$722 [-$398…+$145] · 35% credit | 78% surv 73% | -$7,887 NOT cap gain +$14,558 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$115 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$1.24/sh | -$621 cycle +$94 [-$1,078…-$528] · 8% credit | 81% surv 78% | -$6,886 NOT cap gain +$15,559 |
| budget: banked $715 debit $621 (87% used) → whole cycle still +$94 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,601/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFER · $115.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.57/sh now → $5.36 mid-life (likely $3.70–$6.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 124 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 16 of 22, at $117 (overshoots $2.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$115 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$39 cycle +$229 [+$109…+$575] · 85% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$6,576 NOT cap gain +$15,869 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$124 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$0.30/sh | +$148 cycle +$338 [-$24…+$795] · 74% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$1,909 NOT cap gain +$20,536 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$125 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | -$0.01/sh | -$5 cycle +$185 [-$183…+$631] · 60% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$1,534 NOT cap gain +$20,911 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$126 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | -$0.21/sh | -$104 cycle +$86 [-$309…+$507] · 53% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$1,103 NOT cap gain +$21,342 |
| budget: banked $190 debit $104 (54% used) → whole cycle still +$86 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,980/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $105.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.91/sh now → $4.89 mid-life (likely $4.00–$6.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 395 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 14 of 22, at $107 (overshoots $2.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$105 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.50/sh | +$249 cycle +$699 [+$156…+$572] · 96% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$11,412 NOT cap gain +$11,033 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$114 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$0.64/sh | +$318 cycle +$768 [+$17…+$650] · 77% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$6,779 NOT cap gain +$15,666 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$106 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.13/sh | +$64 cycle +$514 [-$63…+$355] · 65% credit | 68% surv 55% | -$11,168 NOT cap gain +$11,277 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$116 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$0.13/sh | +$67 cycle +$517 [-$272…+$381] · 49% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$5,969 NOT cap gain +$16,476 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$120 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | -$0.87/sh | -$435 cycle +$15 [-$837…-$148] · 20% credit | 81% surv 76% | -$4,351 NOT cap gain +$18,094 |
| budget: banked $450 debit $435 (97% used) → whole cycle still +$15 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,546/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $100C Oct 30 '26 (22d) +$292.50 85% T:32% flat -$22,152 · cap -$14,081 ⚠ locks $13,983 if capped | — | = ★ | $100C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$1,660 77% T:51% flat -$20,785 · cap -$12,713 -8pp surv for +21d | $100C Nov 27 '26 (50d) ⚠ earn +$1,860 76% T:53% flat -$20,585 · cap -$12,513 -1pp surv for +7d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $100C Oct 30 '26 (22d) +$292.50 85% T:32% flat -$22,152 · cap -$14,081 ⚠ locks $13,983 if capped | — | = ★ | $100C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$1,660 77% T:51% flat -$20,785 · cap -$12,713 -8pp surv for +21d | = |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $115C Oct 30 '26 (22d) -$237.50 96% T:9% flat -$22,682 · cap -$6,433 ⚠ locks $6,553 if capped at trip: ~-$1.38/sh | — | = ★ | $145C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn -$185.00 97% T:6% flat -$22,630 · cap +$9,975 -3pp touch for +21d | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $105C Oct 30 '26 (22d) +$27.50 90% T:21% flat -$22,418 · cap -$11,620 ⚠ locks $11,591 if capped ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$1.01/sh | — | = ★ | $130C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$20.00 95% T:12% flat -$22,425 · cap +$2,002 cap +$25 for +21d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (77) · Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 / Nov 20 '26 +1 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $100.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 15d · cap now $-14,373 · spot $85.19
HARVEST Stock $85.19 fell below your $100.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 4 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $91.00 at +$732.50 (71% surv, T:60%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~17% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 5× | $99.00C Oct 16 '26 · 8d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-14,991 if capped) | $0.37 | 0.08 | 93% T:14% | $-267.50 | $-22,712 | $-15,186 | ⚠ locks in $14,991 ($29.98/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 5× | $92.50C Oct 16 '26 · 8d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-18,100 if capped) | $1.06 | 0.21 | 81% T:39% | +$77.50 | $-22,368 | $-18,384 | ⚠ locks in $18,100 ($36.20/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (9) · Oct 16 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 4 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $1,178 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP INTC · 5c · Neville:0865
MARKET
STOCK$109.66Neville: 5centry ~$116.50 · -5.9%
CURRENT CC$123.00Oct 16 '26 · 8d
CC STATUSOTM 12.2%89% survT:22%hist 84%hist 30%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$114.00-4.0% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$115.23-5.1% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-2,952
CC BUYBACK-$377.50
CLOSE P/L$-3,330
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-2,952
STOCK @ $123.00$4,294
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$43/pt+0.09δ/sh
CC INC/MO$1,416
CALLS NET 90D$1.1k/mokeep 68% · 8 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$85.00C / -$100.00P / +$35.00P / -$123.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
-2.01 (earlier legs realized +0.75/sh, already banked) = -2.01/sh
(-$1,005 on 5c) ·
DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · room was BOUGHT; a paid roll sits in the chain
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $123.00 is 12.2% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.76/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-2,952 · at cap $4,294. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $134.55. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $128.00C Oct 23 '26 (15d) · +$5/sh room · net +$105.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $170.00C Mar 19 '27 (162d) · +$47/sh room · net +$2,215
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 12 '26 (4d) · Oct 14 '26 (6d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $123.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 8d · cap now $4,294 · spot $110
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~14% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $155.00C Nov 20 '26 | roll to 5× | $135.00C Oct 23 '26 · 15d ✓ CC-safe | $0.48 | 0.08 | 94% T:11% | $-135.00 | $-3,087 | $10,677 | at trip: ~-$0.78/sh |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 5× | $138.00C Oct 23 '26 · 15d ✓ CC-safe | $0.40 | 0.06 | 96% T:9% | $-177.50 | $-3,130 | $12,264 | at trip: ~-$1.28/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $123.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.88/sh now → $6.28 mid-life (likely $6.44–$9.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,188 simulated challenges: the $123 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 22, at $126 (overshoots $2.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$123 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.61/sh | +$305 cycle +$2,005 [-$1…+$406] · 75% credit | 68% surv 53% | +$6,095 SAFE cap gain +$9,048 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$125 | 13 Nov 2026 | 25d left | +$0.71/sh | +$353 cycle +$2,053 [-$71…+$455] · 64% credit | 70% surv 58% | +$7,374 SAFE cap gain +$10,327 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$128 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.49/sh | +$245 cycle +$1,945 [-$290…+$317] · 45% credit | 73% surv 63% | +$8,849 SAFE cap gain +$11,802 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$124 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.12/sh | +$60 cycle +$1,760 [-$254…+$130] · 36% credit | 69% surv 56% | +$6,566 SAFE cap gain +$9,519 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$143 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$3.31/sh | -$1,655 cycle +$45 [-$2,508…-$1,715] · 1% credit | 85% surv 82% | +$14,906 SAFE cap gain +$17,858 |
| budget: banked $1,700 debit $1,655 (97% used) → whole cycle still +$45 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,393/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $124.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.95/sh now → $6.33 mid-life (likely $6.60–$9.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,168 simulated challenges: the $124 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 22, at $127 (overshoots $2.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$124 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.57/sh | +$287 cycle +$1,887 [-$6…+$391] · 74% credit | 68% surv 53% | +$6,512 SAFE cap gain +$9,464 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$126 | 13 Nov 2026 | 25d left | +$0.67/sh | +$336 cycle +$1,936 [-$71…+$442] · 65% credit | 70% surv 58% | +$7,791 SAFE cap gain +$10,743 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$129 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.46/sh | +$228 cycle +$1,828 [-$288…+$313] · 45% credit | 73% surv 63% | +$9,265 SAFE cap gain +$12,217 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$125 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.08/sh | +$42 cycle +$1,642 [-$259…+$118] · 34% credit | 69% surv 56% | +$6,982 SAFE cap gain +$9,935 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$139 | 13 Nov 2026 | 25d left | -$3.13/sh | -$1,565 cycle +$35 [-$2,343…-$1,659] · 0% credit | 82% surv 78% | +$12,797 SAFE cap gain +$15,749 |
| budget: banked $1,600 debit $1,565 (98% used) → whole cycle still +$35 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,922/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $140.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 21 of 43); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $13.12/sh now → $9.29 mid-life (likely $7.91–$12.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 633 simulated challenges: the $140 strike is typically first touched on day 25 of 43, at $143 (overshoots $2.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$140 | 27 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$2.10/sh | -$1,052 cycle +$208 [-$1,498…-$565] · 12% credit | 66% surv 53% | +$13,289 SAFE cap gain +$16,241 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$142 | 27 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$2.29/sh | -$1,145 cycle +$115 [-$1,539…-$745] · 8% credit | 70% surv 57% | +$14,434 SAFE cap gain +$17,386 |
| budget: banked $1,260 debit $1,145 (91% used) → whole cycle still +$115 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,748/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $140.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.99/sh now → $4.94 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$140 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$1.69/sh | +$846 cycle +$996 | 68% surv 52% | +$14,137 SAFE cap gain +$17,090 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$144 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$0.01/sh | +$4 cycle +$154 | 73% surv 63% | +$15,587 SAFE cap gain +$18,539 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$150 | 13 Nov 2026 | 28d left | +$0.07/sh | +$34 cycle +$184 | 77% surv 70% | +$18,747 SAFE cap gain +$21,699 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$155 | 27 Nov 2026 | 42d left | -$0.14/sh | -$69 cycle +$81 | 79% surv 74% | +$21,244 SAFE cap gain +$24,197 |
| budget: banked $150 debit $69 (46% used) → whole cycle still +$81 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,716/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $130.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.49/sh now → $4.59 mid-life (likely $3.79–$5.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 322 simulated challenges: the $130 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 15, at $132 (overshoots $2.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$130 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$1.95/sh | +$976 cycle +$1,351 [+$906…+$1,219] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | +$9,192 SAFE cap gain +$12,144 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$140 | 27 Nov 2026 | 42d left | +$0.58/sh | +$289 cycle +$664 [-$42…+$687] · 73% credit | 74% surv 68% | +$13,925 SAFE cap gain +$16,878 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$134 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$0.27/sh | +$135 cycle +$510 [-$78…+$280] · 66% credit | 73% surv 63% | +$10,655 SAFE cap gain +$13,607 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$145 | 27 Nov 2026 | 42d left | +$0.14/sh | +$70 cycle +$445 [-$282…+$432] · 53% credit | 79% surv 74% | +$16,348 SAFE cap gain +$19,301 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$144 | 13 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$0.63/sh | -$316 cycle +$59 [-$677…-$40] · 23% credit | 81% surv 76% | +$15,462 SAFE cap gain +$18,415 |
| budget: banked $375 debit $316 (84% used) → whole cycle still +$59 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,120/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $123C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn +$1,372 76% T:50% flat -$1,580 · cap +$5,666 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe | $123C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$402.50 84% T:34% flat -$2,550 · cap +$4,696 | $123C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$1,735 75% T:53% flat -$1,217 · cap +$6,029 -9pp surv for +14d | $125C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$2,122 75% T:53% flat -$830.00 · cap +$7,502 +0pp surv for +14d | $124C Nov 27 '26 (50d) ⚠ earn +$2,498 73% T:59% flat -$455.00 · cap +$7,334 -3pp surv for +7d · +1049% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $124C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn +$1,272 77% T:48% flat -$1,680 · cap +$6,109 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$5.29/sh | $124C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$322.50 85% T:31% flat -$2,630 · cap +$5,159 | $138C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$567.50 89% T:24% flat -$2,385 · cap +$13,009 +4pp surv for +14d | $140C Nov 13 '26 (36d) ⚠ earn +$677.50 88% T:25% flat -$2,275 · cap +$14,205 -0pp surv for +7d | $140C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$902.50 87% T:27% flat -$2,050 · cap +$14,430 -1pp surv for +7d · +10pp surv vs ≤20d · +21d |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $140C Oct 23 '26 (15d) -$187.50 96% T:7% flat -$3,140 · cap +$13,340 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$1.55/sh | = ★ | = ★ | $170C Nov 13 '26 (36d) ⚠ earn -$80.00 97% T:6% flat -$3,032 · cap +$29,743 -1pp touch for +21d | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $130C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$22.50 91% T:18% flat -$2,930 · cap +$8,118 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$0.34/sh | = ★ | $155C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$25.00 95% T:10% flat -$2,927 · cap +$21,701 cap +$25 for +14d | $165C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$82.50 96% T:9% flat -$2,870 · cap +$27,190 cap +$10 for +14d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (141) · Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +2 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $123.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 8d · cap now $4,294 · spot $110
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~17% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 5× | $116.00C Oct 09 '26 · 1d ✓ CC-safe | $0.24 | 0.11 | 93% T:14% | $-255.00 | $-3,207 | $236.25 | — |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~7% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 5× | $118.00C Oct 09 '26 · 1d ✓ CC-safe | $0.12 | 0.06 | 97% T:7% | $-315.00 | $-3,267 | $1,263 | — |
| ▶ ● BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 5× | $119.00C Oct 16 '26 · 8d ✓ CC-safe | $1.23 | 0.22 | 82% T:37% | +$235.00 | $-2,717 | $2,356 | — |
ALL CANDIDATES (10) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 12 '26 / Oct 14 '26 / Oct 16 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 5 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $937.50 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP HOOD · 10c · Joint:1782
MARKET
STOCK$107.42Joint: 10centry ~$119.00 · -9.7%
CURRENT CC$120.00Oct 16 '26 · 8d
CC STATUSOTM 11.7%91% survT:18%hist 95%hist 18%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$114.95-7.0% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$119.46-11.2% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-11,890
CC BUYBACK-$465.00
CLOSE P/L$-12,355
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-11,890
STOCK @ $120.00$668.54
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 1.00
CC INC/MO$1,744
CALLS NET 90D$1.9k/mokeep 95% · 4 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$65.00C / -$95.00P / +$80.00P / -$120.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $120.00 is 11.7% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.46/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-11,890 · at cap $668.54. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $125.86. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $124.00C Oct 23 '26 (15d) · +$4/sh room · net +$30.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $150.00C Nov 20 '26 (43d) · +$30/sh room · net +$300.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $120.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 8d · cap now $668.54 · spot $107
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~20% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $145.00C Nov 20 '26 | roll to 10× | $126.00C Oct 23 '26 · 15d ✓ CC-safe | $0.41 | 0.07 | 92% T:16% | $-55.00 | $-11,945 | $6,606 | at trip: ~+$0.39/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $120.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.57/sh now → $4.65 mid-life (likely $4.76–$6.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,099 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 22, at $122 (overshoots $2.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$120 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.72/sh | +$718 cycle +$2,908 [+$374…+$870] · 100% credit | 66% surv 53% | +$2,966 SAFE cap gain +$14,856 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$126 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$0.83/sh | +$830 cycle +$3,020 [+$36…+$994] · 79% credit | 72% surv 63% | +$8,665 SAFE cap gain +$20,555 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$122 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.07/sh | +$71 cycle +$2,261 [-$342…+$174] · 35% credit | 68% surv 57% | +$3,980 SAFE cap gain +$15,870 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$128 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$0.19/sh | +$191 cycle +$2,381 [-$679…+$281] · 35% credit | 74% surv 67% | +$10,185 SAFE cap gain +$22,075 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$136 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | -$1.69/sh | -$1,689 cycle +$501 [-$2,866…-$1,715] · 4% credit | 81% surv 78% | +$16,942 SAFE cap gain +$28,832 |
| budget: banked $2,190 debit $1,689 (77% used) → whole cycle still +$501 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,278/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $128.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.01/sh now → $4.96 mid-life (likely $4.30–$6.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 572 simulated challenges: the $128 strike is typically first touched on day 13 of 22, at $131 (overshoots $2.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$128 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.47/sh | +$469 cycle +$1,629 [+$267…+$1,062] · 96% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$10,166 SAFE cap gain +$22,056 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$134 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$0.57/sh | +$572 cycle +$1,732 [-$5…+$1,285] · 75% credit | 72% surv 63% | +$16,014 SAFE cap gain +$27,904 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$129 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.22/sh | +$222 cycle +$1,382 [-$16…+$768] · 74% credit | 66% surv 54% | +$10,532 SAFE cap gain +$22,422 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$135 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$0.23/sh | +$227 cycle +$1,387 [-$405…+$908] · 56% credit | 73% surv 65% | +$16,748 SAFE cap gain +$28,638 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$140 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | -$1.14/sh | -$1,143 cycle +$17 [-$1,928…-$561] · 16% credit | 77% surv 72% | +$20,770 SAFE cap gain +$32,660 |
| budget: banked $1,160 debit $1,143 (99% used) → whole cycle still +$17 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,936/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $145.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.94/sh now → $5.62 mid-life (likely $3.53–$6.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 109 simulated challenges: the $145 strike is typically first touched on day 17 of 22, at $147 (overshoots $2.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$150 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$0.19/sh | +$195 cycle +$555 [+$346…+$1,919] · 83% credit | 71% surv 61% | +$32,060 SAFE cap gain +$43,950 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$145 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$0.18/sh | -$185 cycle +$175 [+$64…+$1,302] · 77% credit | 65% surv 52% | +$26,877 SAFE cap gain +$38,767 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$152 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | -$0.50/sh | -$499 cycle -$139 [-$445…+$1,205] · 64% credit | 73% surv 65% | +$33,511 SAFE cap gain +$45,401 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $140.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.67/sh now → $5.42 mid-life (likely $4.06–$6.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 168 simulated challenges: the $140 strike is typically first touched on day 16 of 22, at $143 (overshoots $2.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$140 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.03/sh | +$25 cycle +$515 [+$122…+$1,208] · 79% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$21,869 SAFE cap gain +$33,759 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$146 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$0.08/sh | +$84 cycle +$574 [-$112…+$1,415] · 70% credit | 72% surv 63% | +$27,785 SAFE cap gain +$39,675 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $120C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn +$1,760 78% T:46% flat -$10,130 · cap +$2,429 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 27 ✓ CC-safe | $120C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$340.00 85% T:31% flat -$11,550 · cap +$1,009 | $120C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$2,390 76% T:50% flat -$9,500 · cap +$3,059 -9pp surv for +14d | $120C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$3,535 75% T:54% flat -$8,355 · cap +$4,204 -2pp surv for +14d | $120C Nov 27 '26 (50d) ⚠ earn +$3,985 73% T:58% flat -$7,905 · cap +$4,654 -2pp surv for +7d · +39% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $128C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn +$725.00 87% T:27% flat -$11,165 · cap +$9,383 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 27 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$1.94/sh | — | = ★ | $129C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$1,065 86% T:29% flat -$10,825 · cap +$10,722 -1pp surv for +7d | $127C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$1,295 84% T:33% flat -$10,595 · cap +$8,954 -2pp surv for +0d |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $145C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn -$85.00 96% T:9% flat -$11,975 · cap +$25,551 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 27 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$0.99/sh | $130C Oct 23 '26 (15d) -$185.00 95% T:11% flat -$12,075 · cap +$10,470 | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $140C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn +$45.00 94% T:12% flat -$11,845 · cap +$20,687 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 27 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~-$0.44/sh | $124C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$45.00 90% T:20% flat -$11,845 · cap +$4,708 | = ★ | $155C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$155.00 96% T:9% flat -$11,735 · cap +$35,778 cap +$15 for +21d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (133) · Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +2 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $120.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 8d · cap now $668.54 · spot $107
HARVEST Stock $107.42 fell below your $120.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 2 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $112.00 at +$660.00 (72% surv, T:58%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 10× | $115.00C Oct 16 '26 · 8d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-3,910 if capped) | $0.67 | 0.15 | 81% T:38% | +$200.00 | $-11,690 | $-4,125 | ⚠ locks in $3,910 ($3.91/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (7) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 2 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $110.00 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE | NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● $114.00 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-4,798 if capped) | Oct 16 '26 · 8d | $315.00 | 78% | 44% |
| $110.00 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-9,110 if capped) | Oct 09 '26 · 1d | $-205.00 | 77% | 47% |
✓ SKIP SPCX · 5c · Neville:0865
✓ GREEKS RECOVERED (SP): IBKR initial fetch returned no modelGreeks for the above leg; retry pass resolved cleanly. Data is reliable.
MARKET
STOCK$166.84Neville: 5centry ~$178.00 · -6.3%
CURRENT CC$195.00Oct 30 '26 · 22d
CC STATUSOTM 16.9%91% survT:18%hist 95%hist 18%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$186.00-11.5% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$189.83-13.8% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-12,725
CC BUYBACK-$555.00
CLOSE P/L$-13,280
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-12,725
STOCK @ $195.00$3,122
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$63/pt+0.13δ/sh
CC INC/MO$756.82
CALLS NET 90D$2.0k/mokeep 87% · 14 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$150.00C / -$195.00P / +$135.00P / -$195.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
-3.48 (earlier legs realized +1.12/sh, already banked) = -3.48/sh
(-$1,740 on 5c) ·
DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · room was BOUGHT; a paid roll sits in the chain
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $195.00 is 16.9% OTM. Safe. Earning $1.11/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-12,725 · at cap $3,122. ⚠ LC has 162d left. Plan rebuild within 3 months.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $205.00C Nov 20 '26 (43d) · +$10/sh room · net +$557.50✓ DEEPEST FREE · $245.00C Jan 15 '27 (99d) · +$50/sh room · net +$365.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 12 '26 (4d) · Oct 14 '26 (6d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 19 '26 (11d) · Oct 21 '26 (13d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $195.00C · Oct 30 '26 · 22d · cap now $3,122 · spot $167
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $195.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 18 of 36); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $12.69/sh now → $8.98 mid-life (likely $8.15–$11.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 763 simulated challenges: the $195 strike is typically first touched on day 20 of 36, at $198 (overshoots $3.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$195 | 20 Nov 2026 | 25d left | -$1.08/sh | -$540 cycle +$800 [-$945…-$226] · 18% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$3,648 SAFE cap gain +$16,373 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$198 | 20 Nov 2026 | 25d left | -$1.41/sh | -$705 cycle +$635 [-$1,047…-$492] · 10% credit | 70% surv 58% | +$5,401 SAFE cap gain +$18,126 |
| budget: banked $1,340 debit $705 (53% used) → whole cycle still +$635 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,541/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $195.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 21 of 43); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $13.81/sh now → $9.77 mid-life (likely $8.90–$12.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 909 simulated challenges: the $195 strike is typically first touched on day 23 of 43, at $198 (overshoots $2.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$195 | 27 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$1.94/sh | -$971 cycle +$729 [-$1,465…-$658] · 7% credit | 65% surv 52% | +$3,520 SAFE cap gain +$16,245 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$198 | 27 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$2.27/sh | -$1,136 cycle +$564 [-$1,552…-$911] · 3% credit | 69% surv 58% | +$5,290 SAFE cap gain +$18,015 |
| budget: banked $1,700 debit $1,136 (67% used) → whole cycle still +$564 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,016/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $195C Nov 13 '26 (36d) ⚠ earn +$835.00 85% T:32% flat -$11,890 · cap +$3,957 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 03 ✓ CC-safe | — | — | $195C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$1,195 83% T:36% flat -$11,530 · cap +$4,317 | $195C Nov 27 '26 (50d) ⚠ earn +$1,520 82% T:39% flat -$11,205 · cap +$4,642 -1pp surv for +7d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $195C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$1,195 83% T:36% flat -$11,530 · cap +$4,317 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 03 ✓ CC-safe | — | — | = ★ | = ★ |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $195C Nov 13 '26 (36d) ⚠ earn +$835.00 85% T:32% flat -$11,890 · cap +$3,957 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 03 ✓ CC-safe | — | — | $235C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn -$207.50 97% T:7% flat -$12,933 · cap +$25,429 | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $195C Nov 13 '26 (36d) ⚠ earn +$835.00 85% T:32% flat -$11,890 · cap +$3,957 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 03 ✓ CC-safe | — | — | $220C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$47.50 94% T:13% flat -$12,678 · cap +$17,241 | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (35) · Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 / Nov 20 '26 / Nov 27 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $195.00C · Oct 30 '26 · 22d · cap now $3,122 · spot $167
HARVEST Stock $166.84 fell below your $195.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 6 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $175.00 at +$930.00 (74% surv, T:54%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~17% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 5× | $190.00C Oct 21 '26 · 13d ✓ CC-safe | $0.56 | 0.08 | 93% T:14% | $-275.00 | $-13,000 | $32.85 | — |
| ▶ ● BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 5× | $185.00C Oct 30 '26 · 22d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-1,821 if capped) | $2.08 | 0.09 | 83% T:35% | +$485.00 | $-12,240 | $-2,021 | ⚠ locks in $1,821 ($3.64/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (23) · Oct 12 '26 / Oct 14 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 19 '26 +3 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 5 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $2,158 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP AMZN · 5c · Joint:1782
MARKET
STOCK$258.85Joint: 5centry ~$269.00 · -3.8%
CURRENT CC$275.00Oct 16 '26 · 8d
CC STATUSOTM 6.2%91% survT:17%hist 95%hist 18%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$267.92-3.5% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$270.47-4.5% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-6,203
CC BUYBACK-$285.00
CLOSE P/L$-6,488
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-6,203
STOCK @ $275.00$2,751
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$54/pt+0.11δ/sh
CC INC/MO$1,069
CALLS NET 90D$2.9k/mokeep 83% · 8 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$200.00C / -$250.00P / +$215.00P / -$275.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
-0.83 (earlier legs realized +1.15/sh, already banked) = -0.83/sh
(-$415.00 on 5c) ·
DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · room was BOUGHT; a paid roll sits in the chain
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $275.00 is 6.2% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.57/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-6,203 · at cap $2,751. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $277.18. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $280.00C Oct 23 '26 (15d) · +$5/sh room · net +$92.50✓ DEEPEST FREE · $350.00C Mar 19 '27 (162d) · +$75/sh room · net +$1,707
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 12 '26 (4d) · Oct 14 '26 (6d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 19 '26 (11d) · Oct 21 '26 (13d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $275.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 8d · cap now $2,751 · spot $259
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ ↗ BEST BALANCE + FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $310.00C Nov 20 '26 ▸ if challenged | roll to 5× | $282.50C Oct 23 '26 · 15d ✓ CC-safe | $0.60 | 0.08 | 93% T:15% | +$15.00 | $-6,188 | $6,922 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$64.29/mo of added tenor vs $1,069/mo run rate at trip: ~+$0.29/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $275.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $11.69/sh now → $8.27 mid-life (likely $8.99–$12.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,439 simulated challenges: the $275 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 22, at $279 (overshoots $3.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$281 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$1.42/sh | +$710 cycle +$3,060 [-$90…+$745] · 67% credit | 71% surv 60% | +$8,720 SAFE cap gain +$14,922 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$275 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.73/sh | +$363 cycle +$2,713 [-$59…+$440] · 65% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$4,977 SAFE cap gain +$11,179 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$276 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.60/sh | +$301 cycle +$2,651 [-$75…+$363] · 61% credit | 68% surv 54% | +$5,579 SAFE cap gain +$11,782 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$281 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.74/sh | +$368 cycle +$2,718 [-$326…+$400] · 45% credit | 72% surv 61% | +$8,421 SAFE cap gain +$14,623 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$296 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$3.98/sh | -$1,991 cycle +$359 [-$3,082…-$2,178] · 1% credit | 82% surv 78% | +$14,590 SAFE cap gain +$20,793 |
| budget: banked $2,350 debit $1,991 (85% used) → whole cycle still +$359 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,009/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $285.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $12.11/sh now → $8.57 mid-life (likely $7.92–$12.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 864 simulated challenges: the $285 strike is typically first touched on day 12 of 22, at $289 (overshoots $3.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$291 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$0.99/sh | +$497 cycle +$1,772 [-$141…+$1,029] · 66% credit | 71% surv 60% | +$13,135 SAFE cap gain +$19,338 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$285 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.37/sh | +$186 cycle +$1,461 [-$140…+$598] · 60% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$9,451 SAFE cap gain +$15,653 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$286 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.25/sh | +$123 cycle +$1,398 [-$173…+$495] · 57% credit | 68% surv 54% | +$10,045 SAFE cap gain +$16,247 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$291 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.31/sh | +$157 cycle +$1,432 [-$399…+$642] · 51% credit | 72% surv 61% | +$12,835 SAFE cap gain +$19,038 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$296 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$1.54/sh | -$768 cycle +$507 [-$1,481…-$350] · 16% credit | 75% surv 67% | +$14,738 SAFE cap gain +$20,940 |
| budget: banked $1,275 debit $768 (60% used) → whole cycle still +$507 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,296/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $285.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.89/sh now → $4.87 mid-life (likely $3.42–$6.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 219 simulated challenges: the $285 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 15, at $288 (overshoots $2.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$285 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$3.35/sh | +$1,673 cycle +$1,883 [+$1,556…+$1,901] · 100% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$9,924 SAFE cap gain +$16,126 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$291 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$1.05/sh | +$523 cycle +$733 [+$234…+$653] · 87% credit | 72% surv 63% | +$12,264 SAFE cap gain +$18,466 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$301 | 20 Nov 2026 | 36d left | +$1.13/sh | +$563 cycle +$773 [+$244…+$1,065] · 84% credit | 78% surv 72% | +$17,817 SAFE cap gain +$24,020 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$301 | 13 Nov 2026 | 28d left | +$0.20/sh | +$102 cycle +$312 [-$267…+$545] · 57% credit | 79% surv 74% | +$17,393 SAFE cap gain +$23,596 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$306 | 20 Nov 2026 | 36d left | -$0.18/sh | -$92 cycle +$118 [-$504…+$416] · 40% credit | 81% surv 77% | +$19,961 SAFE cap gain +$26,163 |
| budget: banked $210 debit $92 (44% used) → whole cycle still +$118 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,953/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
BEST BALANCE · $282.5 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.83/sh now → $4.83 mid-life (likely $3.59–$6.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 337 simulated challenges: the $282 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 15, at $285 (overshoots $2.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$282 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$3.40/sh | +$1,699 cycle +$1,974 [+$1,578…+$1,869] · 100% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$8,592 SAFE cap gain +$14,794 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$289 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$1.10/sh | +$550 cycle +$825 [+$292…+$647] · 92% credit | 72% surv 63% | +$10,940 SAFE cap gain +$17,143 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$299 | 20 Nov 2026 | 36d left | +$1.20/sh | +$602 cycle +$877 [+$270…+$1,029] · 90% credit | 78% surv 72% | +$16,516 SAFE cap gain +$22,718 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$299 | 13 Nov 2026 | 28d left | +$0.27/sh | +$137 cycle +$412 [-$219…+$493] · 59% credit | 79% surv 74% | +$16,090 SAFE cap gain +$22,292 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$304 | 20 Nov 2026 | 36d left | -$0.11/sh | -$55 cycle +$220 [-$453…+$349] · 45% credit | 81% surv 77% | +$18,665 SAFE cap gain +$24,868 |
| budget: banked $275 debit $55 (20% used) → whole cycle still +$220 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,966/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $275C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn +$2,128 74% T:54% flat -$4,075 · cap +$4,878 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe | $275C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$370.00 85% T:30% flat -$5,833 · cap +$3,121 | $275C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$2,702 72% T:58% flat -$3,500 · cap +$5,453 -13pp surv for +14d | $275C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$3,478 71% T:62% flat -$2,725 · cap +$6,228 -2pp surv for +14d | $275C Nov 27 '26 (50d) ⚠ earn +$3,778 69% T:64% flat -$2,425 · cap +$6,528 -1pp surv for +7d · +118% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $285C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn +$1,068 84% T:34% flat -$5,135 · cap +$9,360 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$3.80/sh | — | = ★ | $290C Nov 13 '26 (36d) ⚠ earn +$1,415 84% T:33% flat -$4,788 · cap +$12,479 +1pp surv for +14d | = |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $285C Oct 23 '26 (15d) -$67.50 94% T:11% flat -$6,270 · cap +$8,225 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$0.46/sh | = ★ | $315C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$35.00 96% T:8% flat -$6,168 · cap +$24,954 -4pp touch for +14d | $325C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$70.00 96% T:7% flat -$6,133 · cap +$30,531 ≈ same touch for +14d | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $282.5C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$15.00 93% T:15% flat -$6,188 · cap +$6,922 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$0.29/sh | = ★ | $315C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$35.00 96% T:8% flat -$6,168 · cap +$24,954 cap +$32.5 for +14d | $325C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$70.00 96% T:7% flat -$6,133 · cap +$30,531 cap +$10 for +14d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (89) · Oct 19 '26 / Oct 21 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 +4 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $275.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 8d · cap now $2,751 · spot $259
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 5× | $272.50C Oct 14 '26 · 6d ✓ CC-safe | $0.40 | 0.09 | 92% T:15% | $-85.00 | $-6,288 | $1,280 | — |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 5× | $270.00C Oct 16 '26 · 8d ✓ CC-safe | $1.02 | 0.17 | 84% T:32% | +$225.00 | $-5,978 | $204.67 | — |
ALL CANDIDATES (10) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 12 '26 / Oct 14 '26 / Oct 16 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 2 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $492.50 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE | NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● $267.50 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-938.00 if capped) | Oct 16 '26 · 8d | $437.50 | 79% | 43% |
| $262.50 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-3,891 if capped) | Oct 09 '26 · 1d | $55.00 | 79% | 42% |
✓ SKIP MU · 5c · Main:1299
MARKET
STOCK$1077.48Main: 5centry ~$1050.00 · +2.6%
CURRENT CC$1,150.00Oct 12 '26 · 4d
CC STATUSOTM 6.7%92% survT:17%hist 95%hist 18%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$1028.60+4.5% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$1039.60+3.5% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$20,640
CC BUYBACK-$1,322
CLOSE P/L$19,318
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$20,640
STOCK @ $1,150.00$60,281
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$47/pt+0.09δ/sh
CC INC/MO$9,919
CALLS NET 90D$15.3k/mokeep 81% · 21 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$880.00C / -$1,010.00P / +$340.00P / -$1,150.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
+9.06 (earlier legs realized +4.70/sh, already banked) = +9.06/sh
(+$4,530 on 5c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $1150.00 is 6.7% OTM. Safe. Earning $2.65/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $20,640 · at cap $60,281. Next round in 4d: sell ~$1110.00 (~4.85/sh). Weekly gate: EXTENDED. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $1153.33. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $1,175.00C Oct 19 '26 (11d) · +$25/sh room · net +$2,183✓ DEEPEST FREE · $1,440.00C Nov 20 '26 (43d) · +$290/sh room · net +$1,433
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 12 '26 (4d) · Oct 14 '26 (6d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 19 '26 (11d) · Oct 21 '26 (13d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $1,150.00C · Oct 12 '26 · 4d · cap now $60,281 · spot $1,077
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~16% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 5× | $1390.00C Nov 20 '26 · 43d ✓ CC-safe | $7.72 | 0.09 | 94% T:13% | +$2,540 | $23,180 | $194,010 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$1,954/mo of added tenor vs $5,668/mo run rate at trip: ~+$0.65/sh |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~10% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 5× | $1440.00C Nov 20 '26 · 43d ✓ CC-safe | $5.53 | 0.07 | 95% T:9% | +$1,440 | $22,080 | $220,241 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$1,108/mo of added tenor vs $5,668/mo run rate at trip: ~-$3.69/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $1120.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $53.26/sh now → $37.67 mid-life (likely $47.03–$59.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $30.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,907 simulated challenges: the $1,120 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 22, at $1,136 (overshoots $16.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,158 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$10.02/sh | +$5,010 cycle +$20,110 [+$639…+$3,228] · 84% credit | 72% surv 62% | +$81,900 SAFE cap gain +$61,260 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,120 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$5.06/sh | +$2,528 cycle +$17,628 [+$142…+$1,619] · 80% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$59,988 SAFE cap gain +$39,348 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,128 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$1.84/sh | +$921 cycle +$16,021 [-$1,629…-$127] · 23% credit | 68% surv 55% | +$62,433 SAFE cap gain +$41,793 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,183 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$1.29/sh | +$644 cycle +$15,744 [-$4,341…-$1,507] · 16% credit | 75% surv 67% | +$90,975 SAFE cap gain +$70,335 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,323 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$27.39/sh | -$13,697 cycle +$1,403 [-$21,332…-$17,110] | 90% surv 89% | +$151,594 SAFE cap gain +$130,954 |
| budget: banked $15,100 debit $13,697 (91% used) → whole cycle still +$1,403 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,817/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $1210.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $57.54/sh now → $40.70 mid-life (likely $36.96–$55.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $11.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$28.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 726 simulated challenges: the $1,210 strike is typically first touched on day 13 of 22, at $1,227 (overshoots $17.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,248 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$6.94/sh | +$3,468 cycle +$9,343 [+$624…+$5,847] · 82% credit | 71% surv 61% | +$119,387 SAFE cap gain +$98,747 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,210 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$2.08/sh | +$1,042 cycle +$6,917 [-$545…+$2,940] · 64% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$97,604 SAFE cap gain +$76,964 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,213 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.84/sh | +$419 cycle +$6,294 [-$1,222…+$2,242] · 52% credit | 67% surv 53% | +$98,329 SAFE cap gain +$77,689 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,263 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$1.51/sh | +$755 cycle +$6,630 [-$2,426…+$2,985] · 48% credit | 73% surv 65% | +$124,681 SAFE cap gain +$104,041 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,293 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$10.45/sh | -$5,225 cycle +$650 [-$8,820…-$3,751] · 10% credit | 78% surv 72% | +$134,902 SAFE cap gain +$114,262 |
| budget: banked $5,875 debit $5,225 (89% used) → whole cycle still +$650 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $14,178/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $1120C Oct 30 '26 (22d) +$15,015 65% T:72% flat +$35,655 · cap +$58,897 ✓ CC-safe | $1115C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$10,890 66% T:70% flat +$31,530 · cap +$52,039 | $1125C Nov 06 '26 (29d) +$17,678 65% T:73% flat +$38,318 · cap +$64,293 -1pp surv for +14d | $1140C Nov 20 '26 (43d) +$21,690 67% T:71% flat +$42,330 · cap +$76,505 +1pp surv for +14d | $1135C Nov 27 '26 (50d) +$24,765 65% T:74% flat +$45,405 · cap +$76,847 -2pp surv for +7d · +29% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $1210C Oct 30 '26 (22d) +$4,940 85% T:32% flat +$25,580 · cap +$98,018 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$16.40/sh | $1170C Oct 21 '26 (13d) +$3,728 84% T:32% flat +$24,368 · cap +$74,941 | $1240C Nov 06 '26 (29d) +$5,390 86% T:29% flat +$26,030 · cap +$114,867 +2pp surv for +16d | $1280C Nov 20 '26 (43d) +$7,002 86% T:29% flat +$27,643 · cap +$138,344 +0pp surv for +14d | $1270C Nov 20 '26 (43d) +$7,540 85% T:31% flat +$28,180 · cap +$133,416 -1pp surv for +0d |
ALL CANDIDATES (281) · Oct 14 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 19 '26 / Oct 21 '26 +6 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $1,150.00C · Oct 12 '26 · 4d · cap now $60,281 · spot $1,077
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~20% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 5× | $1125.00C Oct 09 '26 · 1d ✓ CC-safe | $1.56 | 0.10 | 92% T:16% | $-545.00 | $20,095 | $46,070 | — |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~8% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 5× | $1140.00C Oct 09 '26 · 1d ✓ CC-safe | $0.83 | 0.05 | 96% T:8% | $-905.00 | $19,735 | $53,910 | — |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 5× | $1120.00C Oct 12 '26 · 4d ✓ CC-safe | $4.72 | 0.11 | 82% T:36% | +$1,040 | $21,680 | $44,922 | — |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE ▸ if challenged | roll down to 5× | $1105.00C Oct 09 '26 · 1d ✓ CC-safe | $3.72 | 0.20 | 81% T:39% | +$540.00 | $21,180 | $36,223 | — |
SAFEST VIABLE · $1105.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 0 of 1); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $13.97/sh now → $9.88 mid-life (likely $13.52–$22.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 555 simulated challenges: the $1,105 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 1, at $1,124 (overshoots $18.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,105 | 12 Oct 2026 | 4d left | -$5.53/sh | -$2,765 cycle -$940 [-$7,048…-$4,197] | 55% surv 51% | +$34,338 SAFE cap gain +$13,698 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ALL CANDIDATES (12) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 12 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 3 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $4,298 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP QCOM · 5c · RetireInc:7291
⚠️
OPEN CC SPANS EARNINGS
2026-11-04 (Wed)
in 27 days
Your open $220.00 Nov 20 '26 CC is still live on the report date. Consider buying it back before 2026-11-04 to sidestep the gap, or confirm you want the exposure.
MARKET
STOCK$173.40RetireInc: 5centry ~$228.00 · -23.9%
CURRENT CC$220.00Nov 20 '26 · 43d
CC STATUSOTM 26.9%92% survT:17%hist 95%hist 18%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$224.00-29.2% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$227.30-31.1% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-28,188
CC BUYBACK-$895.00
CLOSE P/L$-29,082
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-28,188
STOCK @ $220.00$-3,030
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$40/pt+0.08δ/sh
CC INC/MO$624.42
CALLS NET 90D$1.2k/mokeep 79% · 6 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$190.00C / -$210.00P / +$100.00P / -$220.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
-0.20 (earlier legs realized +1.84/sh, already banked) = -0.20/sh
(-$100.00 on 5c) ·
DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · room was BOUGHT; a paid roll sits in the chain
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $220.00 is 26.9% OTM. Safe. Earning $1.79/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-28,188 · at cap $-3,030. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $232.67. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $240.00C Dec 18 '26 (71d) · +$20/sh room · net +$20.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $280.00C Feb 19 '27 (134d) · +$60/sh room · net +$175.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d) · Dec 18 '26 (71d)
⚠ No roll is CC-safe — the CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so a cap anywhere locks a from-entry loss if assigned. That loss is already locked by the current CC, so recommendations below rank roll-ups against the current cap instead (every strike up improves P/L @ CAP — see CAP GAIN). All rows tagged ✕CC-safe for reference.
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $220.00C · Nov 20 '26 · 43d · cap now $-3,030 · spot $173
NO HIGH-CONVICTION PICK: no candidate clears 65% survival with a viable credit. See table for trade-offs.
CANDIDATES (10 of 14) · Nov 27 '26 / Dec 18 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $220.00C · Nov 20 '26 · 43d · cap now $-3,030 · spot $173
HARVEST Stock $173.40 fell below your $220.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 6 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $190.00 at +$2,492 (72% surv, T:60%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~16% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 5× | $205.00C Oct 30 '26 · 22d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-11,220 if capped) | $0.86 | 0.09 | 94% T:13% | $-462.50 | $-28,650 | $-11,591 | ⚠ locks in $11,220 ($22.44/sh) loss if capped |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~10% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 5× | $210.00C Oct 30 '26 · 22d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-8,677 if capped) | $0.63 | 0.07 | 95% T:9% | $-580.00 | $-28,768 | $-9,009 | ⚠ locks in $8,677 ($17.35/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 5× | $200.00C Nov 13 '26 · 36d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 04 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-12,650 if capped) | $3.62 | 0.07 | 82% T:38% | +$915.00 | $-27,272 | $-12,912 | ⚠ locks in $12,650 ($25.30/sh) loss if capped |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 5× | $200.00C Nov 06 '26 · 29d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 04 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-12,751 if capped) | $3.27 | 0.22 | 84% T:33% | +$742.50 | $-27,445 | $-13,085 | ⚠ locks in $12,751 ($25.50/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (22) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 +2 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 7 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $6,472 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP SNDK · 1c · Neville:0865
✓ GREEKS RECOVERED (SP): IBKR initial fetch returned no modelGreeks for the above leg; retry pass resolved cleanly. Data is reliable.
MARKET
STOCK$1659.76Neville: 1centry ~$1636.00 · +1.5%
CURRENT CC$1,900.00Oct 16 '26 · 8d
CC STATUSOTM 14.5%93% survT:14%hist 95%hist 18%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$1620.00+2.4% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$1625.16+2.1% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$3,790
CC BUYBACK-$675.00
CLOSE P/L$3,115
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$3,790
STOCK @ $1,900.00$29,257
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$6/pt+0.06δ/sh
CC INC/MO$2,531
CALLS NET 90D$3.7k/mokeep 96% · 3 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$1,200.00C / -$1,380.00P / +$810.00P / -$1,900.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
+9.25 (earlier legs realized +17.00/sh, already banked) = +9.25/sh
(+$925.00 on 1c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $1900.00 is 14.5% OTM. Safe. Earning $6.75/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $3,790 · at cap $29,257. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $2173.69. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $1,970.00C Oct 23 '26 (15d) · +$70/sh room · net +$333.50✓ DEEPEST FREE · $2,540.00C Mar 19 '27 (162d) · +$640/sh room · net +$7,308
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $1,900.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 8d · cap now $29,257 · spot $1,660
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $2,190.00C Nov 06 '26 | roll to 1× | $1980.00C Oct 23 '26 · 15d ✓ CC-safe | $9.50 | 0.09 | 92% T:16% | +$275.00 | $4,065 | $38,013 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$1,179/mo of added tenor vs $2,531/mo run rate at trip: ~+$14.95/sh |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~10% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 1× | $2070.00C Oct 23 '26 · 15d ✓ CC-safe | $6.00 | 0.06 | 95% T:9% | $-75.00 | $3,715 | $47,203 | at trip: ~-$7.18/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $1745.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $112.10/sh now → $79.30 mid-life (likely $98.92–$126.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $66.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$12.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,911 simulated challenges: the $1,745 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 22, at $1,778 (overshoots $33.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,745 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$9.82/sh | +$982 cycle +$7,632 [-$107…+$554] · 68% credit | 67% surv 53% | +$20,053 SAFE cap gain +$16,263 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,825 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$16.72/sh | +$1,672 cycle +$8,322 [-$288…+$879] · 63% credit | 72% surv 63% | +$29,034 SAFE cap gain +$25,244 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,880 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$1.58/sh | +$158 cycle +$6,808 [-$1,986…-$743] · 13% credit | 75% surv 68% | +$33,309 SAFE cap gain +$29,519 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,770 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.60/sh | +$60 cycle +$6,710 [-$1,103…-$436] · 13% credit | 69% surv 57% | +$21,794 SAFE cap gain +$18,004 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$2,095 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$65.62/sh | -$6,562 cycle +$88 [-$9,708…-$7,907] | 91% surv 90% | +$49,251 SAFE cap gain +$45,461 |
| budget: banked $6,650 debit $6,562 (99% used) → whole cycle still +$88 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,280/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $1960.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $125.91/sh now → $89.07 mid-life (likely $74.36–$119.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $24.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$64.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 603 simulated challenges: the $1,960 strike is typically first touched on day 13 of 22, at $1,997 (overshoots $36.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$2,045 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$7.77/sh | +$777 cycle +$3,187 [-$479…+$2,088] · 63% credit | 72% surv 63% | +$46,985 SAFE cap gain +$43,195 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,960 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$2.73/sh | +$273 cycle +$2,683 [-$402…+$1,251] · 58% credit | 66% surv 53% | +$37,711 SAFE cap gain +$33,921 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,965 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$1.41/sh | +$141 cycle +$2,551 [-$528…+$1,073] · 53% credit | 67% surv 53% | +$38,128 SAFE cap gain +$34,338 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$2,070 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$1.13/sh | +$113 cycle +$2,523 [-$1,197…+$1,360] · 46% credit | 74% surv 65% | +$48,933 SAFE cap gain +$45,143 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$2,130 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$23.59/sh | -$2,359 cycle +$51 [-$3,890…-$1,369] · 13% credit | 78% surv 72% | +$52,767 SAFE cap gain +$48,977 |
| budget: banked $2,410 debit $2,359 (98% used) → whole cycle still +$51 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $6,139/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $1745C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn +$6,365 65% T:73% flat +$10,155 · cap +$19,191 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe | $1730C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$4,015 66% T:70% flat +$7,805 · cap +$15,251 | $1755C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$7,550 65% T:74% flat +$11,340 · cap +$21,437 -1pp surv for +14d | $1770C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$9,300 66% T:74% flat +$13,090 · cap +$24,777 +0pp surv for +14d | $1770C Nov 27 '26 (50d) ⚠ earn +$10,160 65% T:75% flat +$13,950 · cap +$25,637 -0pp surv for +7d · +35% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $1960C Oct 30 '26 (22d) ⚠ earn +$1,945 85% T:31% flat +$5,735 · cap +$37,563 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$55.29/sh | $1835C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$1,675 82% T:38% flat +$5,465 · cap +$24,042 | $2010C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$2,440 86% T:30% flat +$6,230 · cap +$43,358 +4pp surv for +14d | $2000C Nov 13 '26 (36d) ⚠ earn +$3,380 84% T:34% flat +$7,170 · cap +$43,238 -2pp surv for +7d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (360) · Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +2 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $1,900.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 8d · cap now $29,257 · spot $1,660
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~18% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 1× | $1760.00C Oct 09 '26 · 1d ✓ CC-safe | $2.42 | 0.07 | 93% T:15% | $-432.50 | $3,358 | $13,984 | — |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~10% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 1× | $1780.00C Oct 09 '26 · 1d ✓ CC-safe | $1.62 | 0.05 | 95% T:9% | $-512.50 | $3,278 | $16,024 | — |
| ▶ ● BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 1× | $1790.00C Oct 16 '26 · 8d ✓ CC-safe | $15.70 | 0.20 | 81% T:39% | +$895.00 | $4,685 | $18,492 | — |
ALL CANDIDATES (30) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 8 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $7,203 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP COIN · 8c · Main:1299
⚠️
OPEN CC SPANS EARNINGS
2026-10-29 (Thu)
in 21 days
Your open $270.00 Dec 18 '26 CC is still live on the report date. Consider buying it back before 2026-10-29 to sidestep the gap, or confirm you want the exposure.
MARKET
STOCK$176.59Main: 8centry ~$211.00 · -16.3%
CURRENT CC$270.00Dec 18 '26 · 71d
CC STATUSOTM 52.9%94% survT:12%hist 95%hist 18%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$210.90-19.4% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$215.66-22.1% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-36,204
CC BUYBACK-$1,860
CLOSE P/L$-38,064
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-36,204
STOCK @ $270.00$54,618
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$172/pt+0.22δ/sh
CC INC/MO$785.92
CALLS NET 90D$6.4k/mokeep 74% · 21 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$165.00C / -$240.00P / +$90.00P / -$270.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
-1.70 (earlier legs realized +1.68/sh, already banked) = -1.70/sh
(-$1,360 on 8c) ·
DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · room was BOUGHT; a paid roll sits in the chain
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $270.00 is 52.9% OTM. Safe. Earning $2.33/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-36,204 · at cap $54,618. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $200.09. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $300.00C Jan 15 '27 (99d) · +$30/sh room · net +$84.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $340.00C Feb 19 '27 (134d) · +$70/sh room · net +$52.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d) · Dec 18 '26 (71d) · Jan 15 '27 (99d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $270.00C · Dec 18 '26 · 71d · cap now $54,618 · spot $177
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤99d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $270C Jan 15 '27 (99d) ⚠ earn +$1,068 92% T:17% flat -$35,136 · cap +$55,686 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe | — | — | — | = ★ |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $330C Jan 15 '27 (99d) ⚠ earn -$744.00 97% T:6% flat -$36,948 · cap +$112,214 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$2.87/sh | — | — | — | = ★ |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $300C Jan 15 '27 (99d) ⚠ earn +$96.00 95% T:10% flat -$36,108 · cap +$83,884 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$4.06/sh | — | — | — | = ★ |
ALL CANDIDATES (17) · Jan 15 '27 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $270.00C · Dec 18 '26 · 71d · cap now $54,618 · spot $177
HARVEST Stock $176.59 fell below your $270.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 19 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $200.00 at +$6,900 (72% surv, T:61%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~15% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $260.00C Dec 18 '26 | roll down to 8× | $215.00C Oct 23 '26 · 15d ✓ CC-safe mid capped $0.62 → $0.53 (above the lower strike) | $0.53 | 0.07 | 94% T:12% | $-1,436 | $-37,640 | $-295.52 | — |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 8× | $220.00C Dec 18 '26 · 71d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe | $6.60 | 0.25 | 82% T:39% | +$3,420 | $-32,784 | $9,422 | — |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 8× | $210.00C Nov 20 '26 · 43d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-1,084 if capped) | $5.07 | 0.05 | 82% T:39% | +$2,200 | $-34,004 | $-1,521 | ⚠ locks in $1,084 ($1.35/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (43) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 +4 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 12 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $23,548 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP AMD · 2c · Main:1299
MARKET
STOCK$636.06Main: 2centry ~$656.00 · -3.0%
CURRENT CC$685.00Oct 12 '26 · 4d
CC STATUSOTM 7.7%95% survT:9%hist 95%hist 7%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$649.20-2.1% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$659.48-3.7% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-4,580
CC BUYBACK-$151.00
CLOSE P/L$-4,731
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-4,580
STOCK @ $685.00$5,331
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$3/pt+0.01δ/sh
CC INC/MO$1,132
CALLS NET 90D$2.8k/mokeep 97% · 5 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$410.00C / -$550.00P / +$470.00P / -$685.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $685.00 is 7.7% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.76/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-4,580 · at cap $5,331. Next round in 4d: sell ~$655.00 (~2.86/sh). Weekly gate: OVERBOUGHT. Reference Upper BB + 1σ (extension cap) at $693.27. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $700.00C Oct 19 '26 (11d) · +$15/sh room · net +$470.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $860.00C Nov 06 '26 (29d) · +$175/sh room · net +$245.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 12 '26 (4d) · Oct 14 '26 (6d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 19 '26 (11d) · Oct 21 '26 (13d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $685.00C · Oct 12 '26 · 4d · cap now $5,331 · spot $636
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~20% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $820.00C Nov 20 '26 | roll to 2× | $750.00C Oct 30 '26 · 22d ✓ CC-safe | $3.50 | 0.10 | 92% T:16% | +$549.00 | $-4,031 | $19,043 | at trip: ~+$2.83/sh |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 2× | $780.00C Oct 30 '26 · 22d ✓ CC-safe | $1.96 | 0.06 | 96% T:9% | +$242.00 | $-4,338 | $24,812 | at trip: ~-$1.75/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $685.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $32.87/sh now → $23.25 mid-life (likely $24.06–$34.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $12.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,267 simulated challenges: the $685 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 22, at $695 (overshoots $9.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$685 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$8.90/sh | +$1,779 cycle +$4,199 [+$1,555…+$1,837] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | +$8,786 SAFE cap gain +$13,366 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$719 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$3.82/sh | +$764 cycle +$3,184 [+$25…+$770] · 77% credit | 74% surv 66% | +$14,723 SAFE cap gain +$19,303 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$729 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.53/sh | +$106 cycle +$2,526 [-$718…+$67] · 28% credit | 76% surv 69% | +$16,209 SAFE cap gain +$20,789 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$704 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.30/sh | +$59 cycle +$2,479 [-$402…-$17] · 23% credit | 72% surv 62% | +$11,066 SAFE cap gain +$15,646 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$779 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$11.28/sh | -$2,256 cycle +$164 [-$3,512…-$2,413] · 1% credit | 85% surv 83% | +$24,576 SAFE cap gain +$29,156 |
| budget: banked $2,420 debit $2,256 (93% used) → whole cycle still +$164 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $2,244/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $730.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $35.03/sh now → $24.78 mid-life (likely $20.47–$33.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$19.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 532 simulated challenges: the $730 strike is typically first touched on day 14 of 22, at $740 (overshoots $10.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$730 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$7.61/sh | +$1,522 cycle +$2,502 [+$1,349…+$1,912] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | +$16,620 SAFE cap gain +$21,200 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$764 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$2.43/sh | +$486 cycle +$1,466 [-$104…+$1,006] · 70% credit | 74% surv 65% | +$22,661 SAFE cap gain +$27,241 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$744 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.99/sh | +$198 cycle +$1,178 [-$157…+$446] · 60% credit | 71% surv 59% | +$18,265 SAFE cap gain +$22,845 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$769 | 27 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$0.70/sh | +$139 cycle +$1,119 [-$636…+$746] · 48% credit | 74% surv 66% | +$23,327 SAFE cap gain +$27,907 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$784 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$3.84/sh | -$768 cycle +$212 [-$1,518…-$282] · 19% credit | 78% surv 72% | +$25,697 SAFE cap gain +$30,277 |
| budget: banked $980 debit $768 (78% used) → whole cycle still +$212 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $3,926/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $722.5 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $20.07/sh now → $14.19 mid-life (likely $10.07–$16.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.89/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$13.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 103 simulated challenges: the $722 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 8, at $731 (overshoots $8.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$816 | 20 Nov 2026 | 39d left | +$1.15/sh | +$230 cycle +$408 [-$22…+$974] · 73% credit | 84% surv 80% | +$32,855 SAFE cap gain +$37,435 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$722 | 19 Oct 2026 | 7d left | -$0.81/sh | -$162 cycle +$16 [-$60…+$494] · 70% credit | 65% surv 51% | +$12,885 SAFE cap gain +$17,465 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$826 | 20 Nov 2026 | 39d left | -$0.65/sh | -$130 cycle +$48 [-$408…+$608] · 55% credit | 85% surv 82% | +$34,633 SAFE cap gain +$39,213 |
| budget: banked $178 debit $130 (73% used) → whole cycle still +$48 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $2,083/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $685C Oct 30 '26 (22d) +$2,354 75% T:51% flat -$2,226 · cap +$7,685 ✓ CC-safe | $685C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$1,394 80% T:42% flat -$3,186 · cap +$6,725 | $685C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$4,219 71% T:61% flat -$361.00 · cap +$9,550 -9pp surv for +14d | $690C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$5,239 71% T:63% flat +$659.00 · cap +$11,583 -1pp surv for +14d | $685C Nov 27 '26 (50d) ⚠ earn +$5,979 68% T:68% flat +$1,399 · cap +$11,310 -2pp surv for +7d · +2092% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $730C Oct 30 '26 (22d) +$889.00 89% T:23% flat -$3,691 · cap +$15,333 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$7.36/sh | $702.5C Oct 21 '26 (13d) +$692.00 88% T:24% flat -$3,888 · cap +$9,567 | $760C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$1,429 88% T:24% flat -$3,151 · cap +$21,948 +0pp surv for +16d | $780C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$1,764 88% T:25% flat -$2,816 · cap +$26,334 -0pp surv for +14d | $770C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$1,994 87% T:27% flat -$2,586 · cap +$24,538 -1pp surv for +0d |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) + ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $722.5C Oct 16 '26 (8d) +$42.00 96% T:8% flat -$4,538 · cap +$12,967 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~-$1.23/sh | = ★ | $850C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$300.00 96% T:7% flat -$4,280 · cap +$39,045 -1pp touch for +21d | $900C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$338.00 97% T:7% flat -$4,242 · cap +$49,209 -1pp touch for +14d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (267) · Oct 14 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 19 '26 / Oct 21 '26 +6 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $685.00C · Oct 12 '26 · 4d · cap now $5,331 · spot $636
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 2× | $675.00C Oct 12 '26 · 4d ✓ CC-safe | $1.08 | 0.09 | 92% T:16% | +$64.00 | $-4,516 | $3,370 | — |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~10% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 2× | $667.50C Oct 09 '26 · 1d ✓ CC-safe | $0.55 | 0.07 | 95% T:9% | $-40.00 | $-4,620 | $1,747 | — |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 2× | $660.00C Oct 12 '26 · 4d ✓ CC-safe | $2.67 | 0.12 | 82% T:36% | +$384.00 | $-4,196 | $652.14 | — |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 2× | $652.50C Oct 09 '26 · 1d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-898.00 if capped) | $2.09 | 0.21 | 83% T:35% | +$268.00 | $-4,312 | $-982.70 | ⚠ locks in $898.00 ($4.49/sh) loss if capped |
| ⚠ RISKY HARVEST | roll down to 2× | $657.50C Oct 09 '26 · 1d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-31.00 if capped) | $1.38 | 0.14 | 89% T:23% | +$124.00 | $-4,456 | $-114.14 | ⚠ locks in $31.00 ($0.15/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (18) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 12 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 3 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $1,435 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP GLXY · capped $23.00C Oct 09 '26 · 100c · Main:1299BBC CC_PARTIAL
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Roll early: only $0 of room past the strike (~0.0 typical days). One normal day can jump it, so roll on the approach, do not wait for the cross
ACT
before $23
on the approach · the window past the strike is too short
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤15d)
up to ~$24
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$23
$0 of room · ~0.0 typical days
$21.06 now
$23 strike · free roll gone above $23
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Later expiries cross earnings and are not counted (never sell income into a print), so the longest free roll here is 8d.
Your current call already sits under the CC-safe floor $36.03, so rolls are not held to it: any higher strike is an improvement.
MARKET
STOCK$21.06Main: 100centry ~$37.00 · -43.1%
CURRENT CC$23.00Oct 09 '26 · 1d
CC STATUSOTM 9.2%96% survT:7%hist 95%hist 7%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$39.71-88.6% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$35.72-69.6% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-123,850
CC BUYBACK-$2,090
CLOSE P/L$-125,940
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-123,850
STOCK @ $23.00$-108,295
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.80
CC INC/MO$62,700
CALLS NET 90D$3.4k/mokeep 69% · 8 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$37.50C / -$37.50P / +$17.50P / -$23.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
+0.31 (earlier legs realized +0.15/sh, already banked) = +0.31/sh
(+$3,100 on 100c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $23.00 is 9.2% OTM with 1d left. Expiring worthless. Touch odds 7% before expiry. Next round: sell ~$21.50 CC (~0.09/sh ≈ $900.00 for 100 ct). Confirm strike/premium in TWS. Weekly gate: PULLBACK. Reference 20W MA (bounce target) at $24.91. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $25.00C Oct 30 '26 (22d) · +$2/sh room · net +$2,210 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $35.00C Jan 15 '27 (99d) · +$12/sh room · net +$4,160 · under CC-SS
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d)
⚠ No roll is CC-safe — the CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so a cap anywhere locks a from-entry loss if assigned. That loss is already locked by the current CC, so recommendations below rank roll-ups against the current cap instead (every strike up improves P/L @ CAP — see CAP GAIN). All rows tagged ✕CC-safe for reference.
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $23.00C · Oct 09 '26 · 1d · cap now $-108,295 · spot $21.06
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $23.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.14/sh now → $0.81 mid-life (likely $0.78–$1.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 844 simulated challenges: the $23 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $23 (overshoots $0.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (100 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$25 | 13 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.35/sh | +$3,537 cycle +$5,537 [+$1,312…+$4,219] · 90% credit | 73% surv 67% | -$91,123 NOT cap gain +$32,727 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$25 | 6 Nov 2026 | 25d left | +$0.07/sh | +$669 cycle +$2,669 [-$1,816…+$1,163] · 41% credit | 73% surv 68% | -$93,284 NOT cap gain +$30,566 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$29 | 20 Nov 2026 | 39d left | -$0.19/sh | -$1,858 cycle +$142 [-$4,829…-$1,392] · 12% credit | 86% surv 84% | -$59,470 NOT cap gain +$64,380 |
| budget: banked $2,000 debit $1,858 (93% used) → whole cycle still +$142 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $4,764/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $23C Oct 23 '26 (15d) ⚠ earn +$4,160 74% T:55% flat -$119,690 · cap -$104,135 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 20 ⚠ locks $103,919 if capped | = ★ | $23C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$9,160 69% T:68% flat -$114,690 · cap -$99,135 -5pp surv for +14d | $23C Nov 13 '26 (36d) ⚠ earn +$11,260 68% T:70% flat -$112,590 · cap -$97,035 -1pp surv for +7d | = |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $23C Oct 23 '26 (15d) ⚠ earn +$4,160 74% T:55% flat -$119,690 · cap -$104,135 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 20 ⚠ locks $103,919 if capped | = ★ | $26C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$3,260 84% T:34% flat -$120,590 · cap -$80,981 +10pp surv for +14d | $27.5C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$4,760 86% T:31% flat -$119,090 · cap -$67,455 +2pp surv for +14d · +12pp surv vs ≤20d · +28d | = |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) + ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $23C Oct 16 '26 (8d) +$1,010 79% T:44% flat -$122,840 · cap -$107,285 ⚠ locks $106,384 if capped ⚠ protection, not income | = ★ | $26C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$3,260 84% T:34% flat -$120,590 · cap -$80,981 -10pp touch for +21d | $30C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$2,110 91% T:19% flat -$121,740 · cap -$50,060 -15pp touch for +14d | = |
CANDIDATES (16 of 55) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +1 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $23.00C · Oct 09 '26 · 1d · cap now $-108,295 · spot $21.06
HARVEST Stock $21.06 fell below your $23.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused.
⚠ NO VIABLE ABOVE-SS PICK: Stock ($21.06) is below Safe Strike ($39.71) and no candidate in this table reaches SS within the delta band. Selling ANY of the below-SS strikes would cap the fortress below breakeven. Consider: (1) ride uncapped until stock recovers, (2) rebuild with a lower LC, or (3) close and re-enter at current levels. Below-SS rows shown for reference only.
ALL CANDIDATES (1) · Oct 09 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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✓ SKIP RKLB · 6c · RetireInc:7291
✓ GREEKS RECOVERED (SP, CC): IBKR initial fetch returned no modelGreeks for the above legs; retry pass resolved cleanly. Data is reliable.
MARKET
STOCK$71.54RetireInc: 6centry ~$148.00 · -51.7%
CURRENT CC$90.00Oct 16 '26 · 8d
CC STATUSOTM 25.8%98% survT:5%hist 95%hist 7%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$141.55-97.9% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$148.47-107.5% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-48,924
CC BUYBACK-$69.00
CLOSE P/L$-48,993
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-48,924
STOCK @ $90.00$-37,066
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$42/pt+0.07δ/sh
CC INC/MO$258.75
CALLS NET 90D$2.6k/mokeep 67% · 17 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$115.00C / -$135.00P / +$45.00P / -$90.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
-1.41 (earlier legs realized +0.76/sh, already banked) = -1.41/sh
(-$846.00 on 6c) ·
DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · room was BOUGHT; a paid roll sits in the chain
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $90.00 is 25.8% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.12/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-48,924 · at cap $-37,066. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $122.88. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $95.00C Oct 23 '26 (15d) · +$5/sh room · net +$18.00 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $125.00C Mar 19 '27 (162d) · +$35/sh room · net +$1,932 · under CC-SS
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d)
⚠ No roll is CC-safe — the CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so a cap anywhere locks a from-entry loss if assigned. That loss is already locked by the current CC, so recommendations below rank roll-ups against the current cap instead (every strike up improves P/L @ CAP — see CAP GAIN). All rows tagged ✕CC-safe for reference.
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $90.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 8d · cap now $-37,066 · spot $71.54
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ ◆ BEST BALANCE + SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll to 6× | $100.00C Nov 06 '26 · 29d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-31,017 if capped) | $0.36 | 0.05 | 96% T:8% | +$147.00 | $-48,777 | $-30,496 | ⚠ locks in $31,017 ($51.70/sh) loss if capped at trip: ~+$0.70/sh |
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $90C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$75.00 95% T:10% flat -$48,849 · cap -$36,991 ⚠ locks $37,394 if capped | = ★ | $90C Nov 06 '26 (29d) +$447.00 90% T:22% flat -$48,477 · cap -$36,619 -5pp surv for +14d | $90C Nov 13 '26 (36d) ⚠ earn +$996.00 86% T:31% flat -$47,928 · cap -$36,070 -4pp surv for +7d | = |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $100C Nov 13 '26 (36d) ⚠ earn +$546.00 93% T:15% flat -$48,378 · cap -$30,097 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 09 ⚠ locks $30,677 if capped at trip: ~+$2.28/sh | — | $90C Nov 06 '26 (29d) +$447.00 90% T:22% flat -$48,477 · cap -$36,619 | = ★ | = ★ |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) + ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $90C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$75.00 95% T:10% flat -$48,849 · cap -$36,991 ⚠ locks $37,394 if capped | = ★ | $100C Nov 06 '26 (29d) +$147.00 96% T:8% flat -$48,777 · cap -$30,496 -2pp touch for +14d | = | = |
CANDIDATES (15 of 81) · Oct 23 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $90.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 8d · cap now $-37,066 · spot $71.54
HARVEST Stock $71.54 fell below your $90.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 1 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $75.00 at +$570.00 (73% surv, T:55%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ ● ⚠ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + SAFEST VIABLE + RISKY HARVEST | roll down to 6× | $77.00C Oct 16 '26 · 8d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-45,284 if capped) | $0.70 | 0.05 | 81% T:38% | +$351.00 | $-48,573 | $-45,066 | ⚠ locks in $45,284 ($75.47/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (1) · Oct 16 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 2 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $483.00 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE | NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● $76.00 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-45,813 if capped) | Oct 16 '26 · 8d | $438.00 | 78% | 46% |
| $74.00 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-47,316 if capped) | Oct 09 '26 · 1d | $45.00 | 80% | 41% |
✓ SKIP APP · 1c · RetireInc:7291
✓ GREEKS RECOVERED (CC): IBKR initial fetch returned no modelGreeks for the above leg; retry pass resolved cleanly. Data is reliable.
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Hold. Nothing to do below $300 (98% it expires and you keep $20.00)
ACT AT
$300
hold below it · roll that session · pre-load in TWS
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤30d)
up to ~$335
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$314
$14 of room · ~1.0 typical days
$274.26 now
$300 strike
$314 free roll gone
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤30d): stock at $300 → up to $335 · stock at $305 → up to $325 · stock at $309 → up to $320 · above $314 → capped below the stock
Other tenor budgets: ≤15d gone above ~$312
Later expiries cross earnings and are not counted (never sell income into a print), so the longest free roll here is 22d.
Your current call already sits under the CC-safe floor $611.67, so rolls are not held to it: any higher strike is an improvement.
MARKET
STOCK$274.26RetireInc: 1centry ~$601.00 · -54.4%
CURRENT CC$300.00Oct 09 '26 · 1d
CC STATUSOTM 9.4%98% survT:3%hist 95%hist 7%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$588.00-114.4% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$610.53-122.6% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-36,065
CC BUYBACK-$20.00
CLOSE P/L$-36,085
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-36,065
STOCK @ $300.00$-33,224
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$10/pt+0.10δ/sh
CC INC/MO$600.00
CALLS NET 90D$1.2k/mokeep 85% · 9 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$460.00C / -$540.00P / +$185.00P / -$300.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
-1.64 (earlier legs realized +3.00/sh, already banked) = -1.64/sh
(-$164.00 on 1c) ·
DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · room was BOUGHT; a paid roll sits in the chain
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $300.00 is 9.4% OTM with 1d left. Expiring worthless. Touch odds 3% before expiry. Next round: sell ~$280.00 CC (~1.23/sh ≈ $123.00 for 1 ct). Confirm strike/premium in TWS. Weekly gate: PULLBACK. Reference 20W MA (bounce target) at $397.54. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $310.00C Oct 16 '26 (8d) · +$10/sh room · net +$63.50 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $470.00C Mar 19 '27 (162d) · +$170/sh room · net +$963.50 · under CC-SS
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d)
⚠ No roll is CC-safe — the CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so a cap anywhere locks a from-entry loss if assigned. That loss is already locked by the current CC, so recommendations below rank roll-ups against the current cap instead (every strike up improves P/L @ CAP — see CAP GAIN). All rows tagged ✕CC-safe for reference.
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $300.00C · Oct 09 '26 · 1d · cap now $-33,224 · spot $274
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ ↗ ↗ BEST BALANCE + ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) + FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) hist touch ~13% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe ▸ if challenged | roll to 1× | $330.00C Oct 23 '26 · 15d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-30,188 if capped) | $0.97 | 0.06 | 95% T:10% | +$77.50 | $-35,988 | $-29,836 | ⚠ locks in $30,188 ($301.88/sh) loss if capped at trip: ~-$0.78/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $300.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $13.86/sh now → $9.81 mid-life (likely $9.58–$14.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 964 simulated challenges: the $300 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 15, at $305 (overshoots $4.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$326 | 20 Nov 2026 | 36d left | +$5.04/sh | +$504 cycle +$834 [+$306…+$539] · 97% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$30,094 NOT cap gain +$5,971 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$326 | 6 Nov 2026 | 22d left | +$0.99/sh | +$99 cycle +$429 [-$110…+$95] · 49% credit | 76% surv 71% | -$30,410 NOT cap gain +$5,655 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $315.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $14.56/sh now → $10.30 mid-life (likely $8.40–$13.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 426 simulated challenges: the $315 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 15, at $320 (overshoots $4.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$341 | 20 Nov 2026 | 36d left | +$4.89/sh | +$489 cycle +$619 [+$341…+$626] · 98% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$28,681 NOT cap gain +$7,384 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$341 | 6 Nov 2026 | 22d left | +$0.81/sh | +$81 cycle +$211 [-$78…+$158] · 60% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$29,001 NOT cap gain +$7,064 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
BEST BALANCE · $330.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $15.25/sh now → $10.79 mid-life (likely $6.72–$12.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$10.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 152 simulated challenges: the $330 strike is typically first touched on day 12 of 15, at $335 (overshoots $5.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$356 | 20 Nov 2026 | 36d left | +$4.65/sh | +$465 cycle +$535 [+$390…+$749] · 98% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$27,134 NOT cap gain +$8,931 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$356 | 6 Nov 2026 | 22d left | +$0.59/sh | +$59 cycle +$129 [-$68…+$265] · 61% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$27,456 NOT cap gain +$8,609 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $300C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$350.00 81% T:40% flat -$35,715 · cap -$32,874 ⚠ locks $33,150 if capped | = ★ | $300C Nov 06 '26 (29d) ⚠ earn +$1,410 70% T:65% flat -$34,655 · cap -$31,814 -11pp surv for +14d | $300C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$1,675 69% T:68% flat -$34,390 · cap -$31,549 -1pp surv for +14d | $300C Nov 27 '26 (50d) ⚠ earn +$1,835 68% T:70% flat -$34,230 · cap -$31,389 -1pp surv for +7d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $315C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$150.00 90% T:21% flat -$35,915 · cap -$31,419 ⚠ locks $31,736 if capped at trip: ~+$2.64/sh | = ★ | $305C Oct 30 '26 (22d) +$515.00 80% T:41% flat -$35,550 · cap -$32,157 -9pp surv for +7d | $360C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$515.00 89% T:24% flat -$35,550 · cap -$26,087 +8pp surv for +21d | $345C Nov 13 '26 (36d) ⚠ earn +$610.00 87% T:29% flat -$35,455 · cap -$27,648 -2pp surv for -7d |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) + ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $330C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$77.50 95% T:10% flat -$35,988 · cap -$29,836 ⚠ locks $30,188 if capped at trip: ~-$0.78/sh | = ★ | = ★ | $430C Nov 20 '26 (43d) ⚠ earn +$130.00 97% T:7% flat -$35,935 · cap -$18,746 -4pp touch for +28d | = |
CANDIDATES (20 of 109) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 +3 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $300.00C · Oct 09 '26 · 1d · cap now $-33,224 · spot $274
NO HARVEST All 1 roll-down candidate(s) carry touch odds ≥40%, so none of them is a harvest — rolling down here buys a better-than-even chance of facing this decision again inside the cycle. Richest was $280.00 at +$127.50 (74% surv, T:52%). The strikes are still priced in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is framed as fresh risk rather than free income.
✓ SKIP COPX · 20c · Joint:1782
MARKET
STOCK$82.51Joint: 20centry ~$93.00 · -11.3%
CURRENT CC$89.00Oct 09 '26 · 1d
CC STATUSOTM 7.9%100% survT:0%hist 95%hist 7%
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$93.40-13.2% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$95.40-15.6% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-26,200
CC BUYBACK-$1,425
CLOSE P/L$-27,625
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-26,200
STOCK @ $89.00$-13,093
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$19/pt+0.01δ/sh
CC INC/MO$42,750
CALLS NET 90D$1.6k/mokeep 81% · 6 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$65.00C / -$90.00P / +$68.00P / -$89.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $89.00 is 7.9% OTM with 1d left. Expiring worthless. Touch odds 0% before expiry. Next round: sell ~$85.00 CC (~0.37/sh ≈ $740.00 for 20 ct). Confirm strike/premium in TWS. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $96.09. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $92.00C Oct 30 '26 (22d) · +$3/sh room · net +$145.00 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $115.00C Jan 15 '27 (99d) · +$26/sh room · net +$395.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d) · Oct 30 '26 (22d) · Nov 06 '26 (29d) · Nov 13 '26 (36d) · Nov 20 '26 (43d) · Nov 27 '26 (50d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $89.00C · Oct 09 '26 · 1d · cap now $-13,093 · spot $82.51
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~18% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 20× | $100.00C Nov 13 '26 · 36d ✓ CC-safe | $0.60 | 0.10 | 93% T:15% | $-225.00 | $-26,425 | $8,896 | at trip: ~+$0.54/sh |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 20× | $100.00C Oct 30 '26 · 22d ✓ CC-safe | $0.28 | 0.06 | 96% T:8% | $-875.00 | $-27,075 | $8,246 | at trip: ~-$0.04/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $89.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.77/sh now → $2.67 mid-life (likely $2.46–$3.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 864 simulated challenges: the $89 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 15, at $90 (overshoots $1.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$93 | 20 Nov 2026 | 36d left | +$0.59/sh | +$1,180 cycle +$2,480 [+$337…+$1,761] · 87% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$2,548 NOT cap gain +$23,652 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$89 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$0.36/sh | +$716 cycle +$2,016 [+$130…+$1,119] · 82% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$11,733 NOT cap gain +$14,467 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$94 | 20 Nov 2026 | 36d left | +$0.22/sh | +$447 cycle +$1,747 [-$501…+$970] · 52% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$1,193 NOT cap gain +$25,007 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$89 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$0.14/sh | +$275 cycle +$1,575 [-$357…+$634] · 51% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$11,169 NOT cap gain +$15,031 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$97 | 20 Nov 2026 | 36d left | -$0.57/sh | -$1,145 cycle +$155 [-$2,291…-$714] · 13% credit | 79% surv 75% | +$3,505 SAFE cap gain +$29,705 |
| budget: banked $1,300 debit $1,145 (88% used) → whole cycle still +$155 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $3,491/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $89.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 21 of 43); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.32/sh now → $4.47 mid-life (likely $5.03–$6.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,541 simulated challenges: the $89 strike is typically first touched on day 16 of 43, at $90 (overshoots $1.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$89 | 27 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$1.58/sh | -$3,169 cycle +$1,531 [-$5,125…-$3,662] · 1% credit | 62% surv 53% | -$13,021 NOT cap gain +$13,179 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$91 | 27 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$2.35/sh | -$4,698 cycle +$2 [-$6,968…-$5,324] · 0% credit | 66% surv 59% | -$10,423 NOT cap gain +$15,777 |
| budget: banked $4,700 debit $4,698 (100% used) → whole cycle still +$2 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $4,540/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $91.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 18 of 36); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.24/sh now → $4.41 mid-life (likely $4.34–$6.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,149 simulated challenges: the $91 strike is typically first touched on day 17 of 36, at $92 (overshoots $1.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$91 | 20 Nov 2026 | 25d left | -$0.17/sh | -$331 cycle +$2,369 [-$1,133…-$32] · 24% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$7,843 NOT cap gain +$18,357 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$93 | 20 Nov 2026 | 25d left | -$0.90/sh | -$1,793 cycle +$907 [-$2,545…-$1,688] · 4% credit | 72% surv 61% | -$4,122 NOT cap gain +$22,078 |
| budget: banked $2,700 debit $1,793 (66% used) → whole cycle still +$907 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $8,440/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $91.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.96/sh now → $2.80 mid-life (likely $2.42–$3.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 567 simulated challenges: the $91 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 15, at $92 (overshoots $1.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$91 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$0.37/sh | +$743 cycle +$1,543 [+$324…+$1,408] · 89% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$8,092 NOT cap gain +$18,108 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$96 | 20 Nov 2026 | 36d left | +$0.32/sh | +$631 cycle +$1,431 [-$37…+$1,525] · 74% credit | 75% surv 68% | +$2,682 SAFE cap gain +$28,882 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$91 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$0.15/sh | +$301 cycle +$1,101 [-$161…+$920] · 63% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$7,524 NOT cap gain +$18,676 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$97 | 20 Nov 2026 | 36d left | +$0.02/sh | +$41 cycle +$841 [-$717…+$898] · 50% credit | 76% surv 70% | +$4,191 SAFE cap gain +$30,391 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$98 | 20 Nov 2026 | 36d left | -$0.23/sh | -$469 cycle +$331 [-$1,264…+$380] · 36% credit | 77% surv 72% | +$5,785 SAFE cap gain +$31,985 |
| budget: banked $800 debit $469 (59% used) → whole cycle still +$331 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $4,275/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $89.5 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.82/sh now → $2.70 mid-life (likely $2.33–$3.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 773 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 15, at $91 (overshoots $1.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$90 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$0.36/sh | +$723 cycle +$1,923 [+$185…+$1,315] · 84% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$10,800 NOT cap gain +$15,400 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$95 | 20 Nov 2026 | 36d left | +$0.25/sh | +$492 cycle +$1,692 [-$367…+$1,298] · 62% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$201 NOT cap gain +$25,999 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$90 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$0.14/sh | +$281 cycle +$1,481 [-$301…+$841] · 59% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$10,235 NOT cap gain +$15,965 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$98 | 20 Nov 2026 | 36d left | -$0.56/sh | -$1,114 cycle +$86 [-$2,191…-$415] · 17% credit | 79% surv 75% | +$4,488 SAFE cap gain +$30,688 |
| budget: banked $1,200 debit $1,114 (93% used) → whole cycle still +$86 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $3,571/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $89C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$375.00 81% T:39% flat -$25,825 · cap -$12,718 ⚠ locks $11,749 if capped ⚠ protection, not income | = ★ | $89.5C Nov 06 '26 (29d) +$1,925 77% T:47% flat -$24,275 · cap -$10,159 -4pp surv for +14d | $89C Nov 20 '26 (43d) +$3,925 71% T:60% flat -$22,275 · cap -$9,168 -6pp surv for +14d · +21% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d | = |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $91C Nov 13 '26 (36d) +$1,925 79% T:44% flat -$24,275 · cap -$7,129 ⚠ locks $6,670 if capped ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$2.91/sh | — | $90C Nov 06 '26 (29d) +$1,575 79% T:44% flat -$24,625 · cap -$9,499 | = ★ | = ★ |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $91C Oct 23 '26 (15d) -$275.00 87% T:27% flat -$26,475 · cap -$9,329 ⚠ locks $8,294 if capped at trip: ~+$1.47/sh | = ★ | $100C Oct 30 '26 (22d) -$875.00 96% T:8% flat -$27,075 · cap +$8,246 -19pp touch for +7d | = | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $89.5C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$125.00 83% T:35% flat -$26,075 · cap -$11,959 ⚠ locks $10,975 if capped ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$2.06/sh | = ★ | $95C Nov 06 '26 (29d) +$25.00 88% T:24% flat -$26,175 · cap -$951.47 cap +$5.5 for +14d | = | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (132) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 +3 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $89.00C · Oct 09 '26 · 1d · cap now $-13,093 · spot $82.51
HARVEST Stock $82.51 fell below your $89.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused.
⚠ NO VIABLE ABOVE-SS PICK: Stock ($82.51) is below Safe Strike ($93.40) and no candidate in this table reaches SS within the delta band. Selling ANY of the below-SS strikes would cap the fortress below breakeven. Consider: (1) ride uncapped until stock recovers, (2) rebuild with a lower LC, or (3) close and re-enter at current levels. Below-SS rows shown for reference only.
ALL CANDIDATES (3) · Oct 09 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 1 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $-305.00 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE | NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $84.00 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-22,108 if capped) | Oct 09 '26 · 1d | $-305.00 | 77% | 46% |
✓ SKIP IREN · 20c · Neville:0865
MARKET
STOCK$37.44Neville: 20centry ~$58.25 · -35.7%
CURRENT CCNO CCuncapped · gear mode
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$56.50-50.9% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$57.84-54.5% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-46,490
CLOSE P/L$-46,490
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT—
STOCK @ CAP—
CALLS NET 90D$2.2k/mokeep 21% · 41 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$45.00C / -$65.00P / +$21.00PLC / SP / HP
REASON
No CC sold. Position is riding uncapped (gear mode). LC delta=0.63, theta=$-0.015/d. Cheapest directional exposure you own. Weekly gate: PULLBACK. Reference 20W MA (bounce target) at $44.65. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
CC SUGGESTIONS · UNCAPPED → CC SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d)
⚠ No CC-safe candidate. The CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so any new CC would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe option per expiry is shown below for reference (tagged NOT CC-safe); the rest are collapsed.
New CC suggestions
⚠ NO VIABLE ABOVE-SS PICK: Stock ($37.44) is below Safe Strike ($56.50) and no candidate in this table reaches SS within the delta band. Selling ANY of the below-SS strikes would cap the fortress below breakeven. Consider: (1) ride uncapped until stock recovers, (2) rebuild with a lower LC, or (3) close and re-enter at current levels. Below-SS rows shown for reference only.
ALL CANDIDATES (3) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 · CC CANDIDATES
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⚠ 41 more near-money roll(s) hidden — all below the CC-Safe Strike, each would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe few are shown (tagged NOT CC-safe) for reference.
✓ SKIP IREN · 20c · RetireInc:7291
MARKET
STOCK$37.44RetireInc: 20centry ~$65.00 · -42.4%
CURRENT CCNO CCuncapped · gear mode
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$63.43-69.4% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$66.40-77.3% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-65,220
CLOSE P/L$-65,220
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT—
STOCK @ CAP—
CALLS NET 90D$2.2k/mokeep 21% · 41 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$50.00C / -$70.00P / +$23.00PLC / SP / HP
REASON
No CC sold. Position is riding uncapped (gear mode). LC delta=0.59, theta=$-0.016/d. Cheapest directional exposure you own. Weekly gate: PULLBACK. Reference 20W MA (bounce target) at $44.65. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
CC SUGGESTIONS · UNCAPPED → CC SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d)
⚠ No CC-safe candidate. The CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so any new CC would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe option per expiry is shown below for reference (tagged NOT CC-safe); the rest are collapsed.
New CC suggestions
⚠ NO VIABLE ABOVE-SS PICK: Stock ($37.44) is below Safe Strike ($63.43) and no candidate in this table reaches SS within the delta band. Selling ANY of the below-SS strikes would cap the fortress below breakeven. Consider: (1) ride uncapped until stock recovers, (2) rebuild with a lower LC, or (3) close and re-enter at current levels. Below-SS rows shown for reference only.
ALL CANDIDATES (3) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 · CC CANDIDATES
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⚠ 41 more near-money roll(s) hidden — all below the CC-Safe Strike, each would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe few are shown (tagged NOT CC-safe) for reference.
✓ SKIP GLXY · uncapped slice · 25c · Main:1299BBC
⚠️
EARNINGS IN YOUR SELL WINDOW
2026-10-20 (Tue)
in 12 days
Any fresh CC you sell that expires on or after 2026-10-20 carries the earnings gap. Prefer an expiry before the print, or size down.
MARKET
STOCK$21.06Main: 25centry ~$37.00 · -43.1%
CURRENT CCNO CCuncapped · gear mode
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$39.71-88.6% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$35.86-70.3% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-30,962
CLOSE P/L$-30,962
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT—
STOCK @ CAP—
CALLS NET 90D$3.4k/mokeep 69% · 8 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$37.50C / -$37.50P / +$17.50PLC / SP / HP
REASON
No CC sold. Position is riding uncapped (gear mode). LC delta=0.47, theta=$-0.009/d. Cheapest directional exposure you own. Weekly gate: PULLBACK. Reference 20W MA (bounce target) at $24.91. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
CC SUGGESTIONS · UNCAPPED → CC SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d)
⚠ No CC-safe candidate. The CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so any new CC would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe option per expiry is shown below for reference (tagged NOT CC-safe); the rest are collapsed.
New CC suggestions
⚠ NO VIABLE ABOVE-SS PICK: Stock ($21.06) is below Safe Strike ($39.71) and no candidate in this table reaches SS within the delta band. Selling ANY of the below-SS strikes would cap the fortress below breakeven. Consider: (1) ride uncapped until stock recovers, (2) rebuild with a lower LC, or (3) close and re-enter at current levels. Below-SS rows shown for reference only.
ALL CANDIDATES (3) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 · CC CANDIDATES
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⚠ 16 more near-money roll(s) hidden — all below the CC-Safe Strike, each would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe few are shown (tagged NOT CC-safe) for reference.
✓ SKIP CRCL · 5c · Neville:0865
MARKET
STOCK$80.33Neville: 5centry ~$90.85 · -11.6%
CURRENT CCNO CCuncapped · gear mode
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$87.00-8.3% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$90.54-12.7% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-5,345
CLOSE P/L$-5,345
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT—
STOCK @ CAP—
CALLS NET 90D$690/mokeep 95% · 2 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$45.00C / -$65.00P / +$40.00PLC / SP / HP
REASON
No CC sold. Position is riding uncapped (gear mode). LC delta=0.88, theta=$-0.013/d. Cheapest directional exposure you own. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $106.75. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
CC SUGGESTIONS · UNCAPPED → CC SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (1d) · Oct 16 '26 (8d) · Oct 23 '26 (15d)
New CC suggestions
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤20d |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $90C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$535.00 82% T:38% flat -$4,810 · cap +$349.14 ✓ CC-safe | = ★ | = ★ |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $100C Oct 23 '26 (15d) +$220.00 94% T:12% flat -$5,125 · cap +$5,369 ✓ CC-safe | = ★ | = ★ |
ALL CANDIDATES (25) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 · CC CANDIDATES
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⚠ 28 more near-money roll(s) hidden — all below the CC-Safe Strike, each would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe few are shown (tagged NOT CC-safe) for reference.
⏸ EXCLUDED BY CSV: 8 fortress row(s)
These carry the Skip; directive in the CSV Comments column (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, not fetched, no routing verdict, no roll or CC suggestions. This is NOT the router's SKIP verdict — these rows were never routed at all. Remove the tag to bring them back; an explicit --tickers request also overrides it.
| TICKER | ACCOUNT | CT | LC | LC EXPIRY | WHY EXCLUDED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR | Joint:1782 | 150c | $23.00 | Jan 21 '28 (470d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR | Main:1299 | 50c | $25.00 | Jan 21 '28 (470d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR | Main:1299 | 75c | $23.00 | Jan 21 '28 (470d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv · also tagged: Half Max |
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25c | $17.00 | Jan 21 '28 (470d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10c | $45.00 | Jan 21 '28 (470d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50c | $75.00 | Dec 17 '27 (435d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv |
| MARA | Main:1299 | 400c | $13.00 | Jan 21 '28 (470d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv |
| MARA | RetireInc:7291 | 500c | $40.00 | Jan 21 '28 (470d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv |
Safe Strike = max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2)
Decisions driven by CC status + LC runway + sigma survival + proactive rolls (v1.2)
Read-only — review each action in TWS before trading
python3 fortress_rebuild.py --help