GENERATED2026-10-09 21:51
FORTRESS REBUILDLifecycle Manager v1.3
Cutoff: LEAPS expiring by none (all fortresses)
Accounts: Main:1299, Neville:0865, RetireInc:7291, Joint:1782
Run time: 20m 18s (1218.9s)
⚠️
Earnings conflicts · 7
income being sold or held into an upcoming report · click to jump
34 fortress structure(s) scanned · 4 account(s)
PORTFOLIO ROLLUP34 fortress(es)
CAPITAL LOCKED$1,472,985
CLOSE P/L−$885,142
STOCK FLAT−$833,150
STOCK @ CAP−$449,691
CC INC/MO$212,129
CALLS NET 90D /MO+$66,844
🌾 PORTFOLIO HARVEST · 11 roll-down(s) · +$6,400 net credit available · ⚠ 13 stretch · +$12,260
Every row is a fortress whose call is safely dead, sitting on a
SKIP / WAIT decision, where rolling the call DOWN to a closer
strike re-loads income while it stays likely to expire worthless.
Ranked by dollars. Click any row to jump to its roll-down menu.
The binding gate is
touch < 40%, which
on this book means every row also has
survival ≥
80%. Survival and touch move together, so the
separate survival ≥ 70% floor never binds
while touch is priceable; it is the failsafe for candidates the
first-passage engine cannot price.
Tenors are mixed (5-35d),
so the total is a worklist, not a monthly rate. Every figure is
net of commission at
$0.75/contract/leg x 2 legs
(measured from live fills), which is
$184.50 off $6,585 gross across these rows. Option prices are leg mids, which
is a fair estimate for a roll because it executes as one COMBO order
whose market is far tighter than the two legs' spreads added
together. 21 position(s) had closer, richer strikes held back by the touch ceiling; each one names its best held-back strike on its own card.
| POSITION | CC NOW | ROLL DOWN TO |
NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
COIN Main:1299 | $200.00C | $192.50C Oct 23 '26 · 14d | +$1,900 | 81% | 38% |
MU Neville:0865 | $1,150.00C | $1,105.00C Oct 16 '26 · 7d | +$692.00 | 80% | 40% |
IREN Main:1299 | $49.00C | $44.00C Nov 13 '26 · 35d | +$620.00 | 82% | 39% |
IREN Joint:1782 | $49.00C | $44.00C Nov 13 '26 · 35d | +$620.00 | 82% | 39% |
QCOM RetireInc:7291 | $220.00C | $200.00C Nov 06 '26 · 28d | +$595.00 | 83% | 36% |
HIMS Main:1299 | $32.50C | $31.00C Oct 16 '26 · 7d | +$457.50 | 82% | 37% |
NVDA Main:1299 | $250.00C | $242.50C Oct 21 '26 · 12d | +$430.00 | 83% | 34% |
HOOD Joint:1782 | $120.00C | $115.00C Oct 16 '26 · 7d | +$390.00 | 81% | 38% |
AAPL RetireInc:7291 | $350.00C | $340.00C Oct 14 '26 · 5d | +$357.50 | 82% | 37% |
RKLB RetireInc:7291 | $90.00C | $75.00C Oct 16 '26 · 7d | +$201.00 | 84% | 33% |
CRWV Neville:0865 | $100.00C | $90.00C Oct 16 '26 · 7d | +$137.50 | 83% | 36% |
⚠ STRETCH · 13 roll-down(s) at touch
40-50%
· +$12,260
NOT part of the
+$6,400 above, and not a recommendation. These pay
more because each carries roughly a two-in-five chance of putting
this decision back in front of you before expiry, which is the one
thing a harvest is supposed to avoid. Calibration says to take those
odds at face value: in the two well-sampled IV bands the touch model
is honest (26% predicted vs 26% realized at IV≥75%, n=72). Your
call.
| POSITION | CC NOW | ROLL DOWN TO |
NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
COIN Main:1299 | $200.00C | $190.00C Oct 23 '26 · 14d | +$2,863 | 79% | 44% |
IREN Main:1299 | $49.00C | $42.00C Nov 13 '26 · 35d | +$1,220 | 77% | 50% |
IREN Joint:1782 | $49.00C | $42.00C Nov 13 '26 · 35d | +$1,220 | 77% | 50% |
QCOM RetireInc:7291 | $220.00C | $195.00C Nov 13 '26 · 35d | +$1,060 | 77% | 48% |
MU Neville:0865 | $1,150.00C | $1,095.00C Oct 16 '26 · 7d | +$1,027 | 77% | 48% |
NVDA Main:1299 | $250.00C | $240.00C Oct 21 '26 · 12d | +$990.00 | 77% | 47% |
MSTR Joint:1782 | $200.00C | $190.00C Jan 15 '27 · 98d | +$785.00 | 78% | 48% |
AAPL RetireInc:7291 | $350.00C | $340.00C Oct 16 '26 · 7d | +$652.50 | 77% | 46% |
SPCX Neville:0865 | $195.00C | $175.00C Oct 23 '26 · 14d | +$585.00 | 76% | 50% |
HOOD Joint:1782 | $120.00C | $114.00C Oct 16 '26 · 7d | +$555.00 | 78% | 45% |
CRWV Neville:0865 | $100.00C | $91.00C Oct 23 '26 · 14d | +$490.00 | 78% | 45% |
GOOG Neville:0865 | $360.00C | $357.50C Oct 16 '26 · 7d | +$452.50 | 76% | 48% |
RKLB RetireInc:7291 | $90.00C | $73.00C Oct 16 '26 · 7d | +$360.00 | 76% | 49% |
BY UNDERLYING · 6 ticker(s) held more than once
· tightest: GOOG fully capped at +2.2%
What this answers: if one of these names
rips, how much of the move do you actually keep? Each card below shows
ONE fortress; this shows the whole holding. Chips are the CC strikes in
the order a rally hits them: distance from spot, contracts capped
there, survival, nearest expiry, and how many contracts are still
free above that rung. A ticker whose first cap is 6% away with
0c free above is a different position from one whose first cap is 28%
away with three quarters of the size still uncapped, and no per-card
view can tell you which you own. Reference only: no recommendation,
no new model, built from metrics the cards already computed.
COIN $175.00 · 2 fortresses · 33c total · first cap at $200.00 (+14.3%) · CC inc/mo $12,192
$200.00C +14.3% · 25c · 88% · 14d · 8c free above$205.00C +17.1% · 8c · 81% · 35d · 0c free above
GLXY $20.35 · 2 fortresses · 125c total · first cap at $23.00 (+13.0%) · CC inc/mo $68,400
$23.00C +13.0% · 100c · 98% · 0d · 25c free above25c UNCAPPED · open-ended upside
GOOG $347.47 · 3 fortresses · 25c total · first cap at $355.00 (+2.2%) · CC inc/mo $28,168
$355.00C +2.2% · 20c · 71% · 7d · 5c free above$360.00C +3.6% · 5c · 81% · 7d · 0c free above
IREN $35.95 · 4 fortresses · 80c total · first cap at $49.00 (+36.3%) · CC inc/mo $2,629
$49.00C +36.3% · 40c · 89% · 42d · 40c free above40c UNCAPPED · open-ended upside
MSTR $153.52 · 2 fortresses · 14c total · first cap at $170.00 (+10.7%) · CC inc/mo $4,882
$170.00C +10.7% · 4c · 71% · 42d · 10c free above$200.00C +30.3% · 10c · 82% · 98d · 0c free above
MU $1,047.89 · 2 fortresses · 7c total · first cap at $1,150.00 (+9.7%) · CC inc/mo $3,064
$1,150.00C +9.7% · 2c · 91% · 7d · 5c free above5c UNCAPPED · open-ended upside
Summary · sorted by urgency · click any header to sort
| TICKER · CT |
STOCK |
CURRENT CC |
CC RISK |
OUTLOOK |
CLOSE P/L |
STOCK FLAT |
STOCK @ CAP |
ROLL-DOWN OPTIONSALLSAFESTRETCHSHORTERLINEAGE |
DECISION |
GOOG · 5c earn 19d Joint:1782LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $335.00+3.7% $6.7k/mo 90d |
$347.47▲ +0.8% CC-SS $349.37 |
$355.00 OTM 2.2% Oct 16 '26 (7d) lineage +2.47/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
71%hist 76% T:59%hist 46% |
near strike pre-load the roll order at $355.00 · at cap $2,328 roll early · thin room ($2) |
−$1,880 |
−$450.00 |
+$2,328 @ $355.00 |
— |
○ WAIT ✓ → CC NEAR ATM BORDERLINE |
GOOG · 15c earn 19d Neville:0865LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $335.00+3.7% $6.7k/mo 90d |
$347.47▲ +0.8% CC-SS $346.10 |
$355.00 OTM 2.2% Oct 16 '26 (7d) lineage +2.47/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
71%hist 76% T:59%hist 46% |
near strike pre-load the roll order at $355.00 · at cap $12,265 roll early · thin room ($2) |
−$1,852 |
+$2,438 |
+$12,265 @ $355.00 |
— |
○ WAIT ✓ → CC NEAR ATM BORDERLINE |
MSTR · 4c ⚠ earn 20d RetireInc:7291 ENTRY $163.00-5.8% $1.5k/mo 90d |
$153.52▲ +1.3% CC-SS $162.69 |
$170.00 OTM 10.7% Nov 20 '26 (42d) lineage +1.03/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
71%hist 76% T:62%hist 56% |
challenge profitable at cap $3,770 · roll at trip |
−$7,260 |
−$4,090 |
+$3,770 @ $170.00 |
— |
⚠ WAIT (MARGINAL) → CC OTM HIGH TOUCH |
IGV · 12c Main:1299LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $85.00+30.5% $744/mo 90d |
$110.94▲ +1.4% CC-SS $88.29 |
$115.00 OTM 3.7% Oct 23 '26 (14d) lineage -2.76/sh · DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
73%hist 76% T:55%hist 46% |
normal par for the strike · no action roll early · thin room ($2) |
+$22,542 |
+$24,120 |
+$28,637 @ $115.00 |
— |
○ WAIT → CC NEAR ATM BORDERLINE |
AMZN · 5c earn 20d Joint:1782 ENTRY $269.00-4.4% $2.9k/mo 90d |
$257.14▲ +0.9% CC-SS $271.06 |
$262.50 OTM 2.1% Oct 14 '26 (5d) lineage -0.01/sh · DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
75%hist 76% T:51%hist 46% |
near strike pre-load the roll order at $262.50 · could fire this session roll early · thin room ($3.50) |
−$8,193 |
−$7,528 |
−$4,568 @ $262.50 |
— |
○ WAIT ✓ → CC NEAR ATM |
GOOG · 5c earn 19d Neville:0865LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $369.00-5.8% $6.7k/mo 90d |
$347.47▲ +0.8% CC-SS $385.62 |
$360.00 OTM 3.6% Oct 16 '26 (7d) lineage -1.13/sh · DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
81%hist 84% T:39%hist 37% |
safe let theta work roll early · thin room ($2) |
−$16,827 |
−$15,975 |
−$10,890 @ $360.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $10,978 loss if capped |
○ WAIT → CC NEAR ATM |
SPY · 12c Neville:0865LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $695.00+11.7% $1.5k/mo 90d |
$776.21▲ +0.4% CC-SS $702.76 |
$785.00 OTM 1.1% Oct 15 '26 (6d) lineage +0.55/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
83%hist 84% T:34%hist 37% |
safe let theta work free roll gone above $793 (~1.8d) |
+$71,124 ⚑ 88% of cap $10.1k left this cycle calls netted ~$1.5k/mo (90d) |
+$72,174 |
+$81,226 @ $785.00 |
— |
○ WAIT → CC NEAR ATM |
SNDK · 1c earn 20d Neville:0865 ENTRY $1,636.00-0.4% $3.6k/mo 90d |
$1628.95▲ +1.9% CC-SS $1,622.91 |
$1660.00 OTM 1.9% Oct 09 '26 (0d) lineage +12.95/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
76%hist 76% T:49%hist 44% |
near strike pre-load the roll order at $1660.00 · at cap $4,166 roll early · thin room ($75) |
+$194.50 |
+$869.50 |
+$4,166 @ $1,660.00 |
— |
✓ SKIP ✓ → CC EXPIRING WORTHLESS |
GLD · 10c Main:1299 ENTRY $465.00-17.4% $873/mo 90d |
$384.24▲ +1.5% CC-SS $470.75 |
$409.00 OTM 6.4% Dec 18 '26 (70d) lineage +3.22/sh · MIXED-BUILT · 3 rolls |
76%hist 76% T:49%hist 44% |
normal par for the strike · no action |
−$122,155 |
−$115,655 |
−$77,876 @ $409.00 |
— |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
DELL · 3c Main:1299 ENTRY $567.00+3.3% $4.0k/mo 90d |
$585.53▲ +2.2% CC-SS $570.42 |
$650.00 OTM 11.0% Oct 30 '26 (21d) lineage +0.42/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
79%hist 76% T:43%hist 44% |
normal par for the strike · no action |
+$1,922 |
+$5,154 |
+$25,264 @ $650.00 |
— |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
COIN · 8c ⚠ earn 20d Main:1299 ENTRY $211.00-17.1% $6.2k/mo 90d |
$175.00▲ +0.6% CC-SS $215.35 |
$205.00 OTM 17.1% Nov 13 '26 (35d) lineage +1.08/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
81%hist 84% T:41%hist 44% |
normal par for the strike · no action |
−$42,068 |
−$37,688 |
−$8,532 @ $205.00 |
— |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
INTC · 5c earn 20d Neville:0865 ENTRY $116.50-7.9% $930/mo 90d |
$107.34▲ +0.5% CC-SS $115.44 |
$114.00 OTM 6.2% Oct 14 '26 (5d) lineage -1.44/sh · DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
82%hist 84% T:36%hist 37% |
safe let theta work roll early · thin room ($2.50) |
−$4,760 |
−$4,333 |
−$701.23 @ $114.00 |
— |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
MSTR · 10c ⚠ earn 20d Joint:1782LEAPBUILDERBBC ENTRY $395.00-61.1% $1.5k/mo 90d |
$153.52▲ +1.3% CC-SS $183.54 |
$200.00 OTM 30.3% Jan 15 '27 (98d) lineage +0.15/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
82%hist 84% T:39%hist 37% |
safe let theta work |
−$20,925 |
−$12,375 |
+$15,388 @ $200.00 |
|
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
COIN · 25c earn 20d Main:1299LEAPBUILDERBBC ENTRY $330.00-47.0% $6.2k/mo 90d |
$175.00▲ +0.6% CC-SS $381.41 |
$200.00 OTM 14.3% Oct 23 '26 (14d) lineage +2.68/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
88%hist 84% T:25%hist 30% |
safe let theta work |
−$207,188 |
−$203,250 |
−$189,315 @ $200.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $189,310 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
IREN · 20c ⚠ earn 27d Main:1299 ENTRY $45.00-20.1% $1.7k/mo 90d |
$35.95▲ +0.5% CC-SS $49.20 |
$49.00 OTM 36.3% Nov 20 '26 (42d) lineage +0.18/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
89%hist 84% T:24%hist 30% |
safe let theta work |
−$25,640 |
−$23,800 |
−$1,077 @ $49.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $8,200 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
IREN · 20c ⚠ earn 27d Joint:1782 ENTRY $45.00-20.1% $1.7k/mo 90d |
$35.95▲ +0.5% CC-SS $49.20 |
$49.00 OTM 36.3% Nov 20 '26 (42d) lineage +0.18/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
89%hist 84% T:24%hist 30% |
safe let theta work |
−$25,640 |
−$23,800 |
−$1,077 @ $49.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $8,200 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
HIMS · 15c Main:1299LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $20.00+42.5% $1.2k/mo 90d |
$28.50▲ +1.5% CC-SS $18.82 |
$32.50 OTM 14.0% Oct 16 '26 (7d) |
90%hist 95% T:20%hist 18% |
safe let theta work |
+$16,553 |
+$16,778 |
+$23,543 @ $32.50 |
|
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
HOOD · 10c earn 18d Joint:1782 ENTRY $119.00-8.9% $1.9k/mo 90d |
$108.44▲ +0.8% CC-SS $119.84 |
$120.00 OTM 10.7% Oct 16 '26 (7d) |
91%hist 95% T:18%hist 18% |
safe let theta work |
−$11,680 |
−$11,260 |
+$271.71 @ $120.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $4,126 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
NVDA · 10c Main:1299LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $228.00+1.7% $1.6k/mo 90d |
$231.99▲ +0.6% CC-SS $230.51 |
$250.00 OTM 7.8% Oct 23 '26 (14d) lineage -3.18/sh · DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
91%hist 95% T:18%hist 18% |
safe let theta work |
+$1,155 |
+$1,775 |
+$16,221 @ $250.00 |
|
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
QCOM · 5c ⚠ earn 26d RetireInc:7291 ENTRY $228.00-23.2% $913/mo 90d |
$175.110.0% CC-SS $227.42 |
$220.00 OTM 25.6% Nov 20 '26 (42d) lineage -0.20/sh · DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
91%hist 95% T:18%hist 18% |
safe let theta work |
−$28,332 |
−$27,375 |
−$3,175 @ $220.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $12,905 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
MU · 2c Neville:0865 ENTRY $1,235.00-15.2% $14.1k/mo 90d |
$1047.89▲ +1.3% CC-SS $1,226.80 |
$1150.00 OTM 9.7% Oct 16 '26 (7d) lineage +9.06/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
91%hist 95% T:18%hist 18% |
safe let theta work |
−$39,244 |
−$38,529 |
−$15,894 @ $1,150.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $24,883 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
SPCX · 5c Neville:0865LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $178.00-6.6% $2.0k/mo 90d |
$166.18▲ +3.6% CC-SS $190.42 |
$195.00 OTM 17.3% Oct 30 '26 (21d) lineage -3.48/sh · DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
92%hist 95% T:16%hist 18% |
safe let theta work |
−$13,845 |
−$13,412 |
+$2,675 @ $195.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $7,841 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
CRWV · 5c Neville:0865 ENTRY $128.00-35.1% $742/mo 90d |
$83.03▲ +1.8% CC-SS $128.50 |
$100.00 OTM 20.4% Oct 23 '26 (14d) lineage -1.42/sh · DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
92%hist 95% T:16%hist 18% |
safe let theta work |
−$24,240 |
−$23,995 |
−$14,740 @ $100.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $19,963 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
AAPL · 5c RetireInc:7291 ENTRY $335.50-1.0% $1.1k/mo 90d |
$332.19▼ -2.5% CC-SS $337.54 |
$350.00 OTM 5.4% Oct 16 '26 (7d) lineage -0.94/sh · DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
93%hist 95% T:13%hist 18% |
safe let theta work |
−$3,010 |
−$2,823 |
+$7,665 @ $350.00 |
|
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
APP · 1c RetireInc:7291 ENTRY $601.00-53.4% $1.2k/mo 90d |
$280.27▲ +0.3% CC-SS $611.39 |
$300.00 OTM 7.0% Oct 09 '26 (0d) lineage -1.64/sh · DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
97%hist 95% T:6%hist 7% |
safe let theta work roll early · thin room ($14) |
−$35,485 |
−$35,478 |
−$33,292 @ $300.00 |
— |
✓ SKIP → CC EXPIRING WORTHLESS |
GLXY · 100c earn 11d capped $23.00C Oct 09 '26 Main:1299LEAPBUILDERBBC ENTRY $37.00-45.0% $3.4k/mo 90d |
$20.35▲ +1.0% CC-SS $35.43 |
$23.00 OTM 13.0% Oct 09 '26 (0d) lineage +0.31/sh · CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
98%hist 95% T:3%hist 7% |
safe let theta work no free roll at the strike (≤15d) |
−$127,630 |
−$125,350 |
−$104,326 @ $23.00 |
— |
✓ SKIP → CC EXPIRING WORTHLESS |
RKLB · 6c RetireInc:7291 ENTRY $148.00-53.5% $2.4k/mo 90d |
$68.89▲ +1.0% CC-SS $147.84 |
$90.00 OTM 30.6% Oct 16 '26 (7d) lineage -1.41/sh · DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls |
99%hist 95% T:2%hist 7% |
safe let theta work |
−$50,340 |
−$50,280 |
−$36,761 @ $90.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $46,387 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
COPX · 20c Joint:1782LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $93.00-8.6% $1.6k/mo 90d |
$85.00▲ +3.5% CC-SS $95.86 |
$89.00 OTM 4.7% Oct 09 '26 (0d) |
100%hist 95% T:0%hist 7% |
safe let theta work free roll gone above $92 (~1.2d) |
−$23,225 |
−$21,800 |
−$13,674 @ $89.00 |
— |
✓ SKIP → CC EXPIRING WORTHLESS |
IREN · 20c Neville:0865 ENTRY $58.25-38.3% $1.7k/mo 90d |
$35.95▲ +0.5% CC-SS $58.03 |
— — |
NO CC |
— |
−$50,260 |
−$50,260 |
— |
— |
✓ SKIP → UNCAPPED |
IREN · 20c RetireInc:7291 ENTRY $65.00-44.7% $1.7k/mo 90d |
$35.95▲ +0.5% CC-SS $66.45 |
— — |
NO CC |
— |
−$68,530 |
−$68,530 |
— |
— |
✓ SKIP → UNCAPPED |
MU · 5c Main:1299 ENTRY $1,050.00-0.2% $14.1k/mo 90d |
$1047.89▲ +1.3% CC-SS $1,039.69 |
— — |
NO CC |
— |
+$5,065 |
+$5,065 |
— |
— |
✓ SKIP → UNCAPPED |
GLXY · 25c ⚠ earn 11d uncapped slice Main:1299LEAPBUILDERBBC ENTRY $37.00-45.0% $3.4k/mo 90d |
$20.35▲ +1.0% CC-SS $35.43 |
— — |
NO CC |
— |
−$31,338 |
−$31,338 |
— |
— |
✓ SKIP → UNCAPPED |
CRCL · 5c Neville:0865 ENTRY $90.85-9.5% $690/mo 90d |
$82.20▲ +1.6% CC-SS $92.42 |
— — |
NO CC |
— |
−$5,345 |
−$5,345 |
— |
— |
✓ SKIP → UNCAPPED |
AMD · 2c Main:1299 ENTRY $656.00-4.8% $3.2k/mo 90d |
$624.30▲ +0.9% CC-SS $660.43 |
— — |
NO CC |
— |
−$6,805 |
−$6,805 |
— |
— |
✓ SKIP → UNCAPPED |
CALIBRATION · predicted vs realized (451 of 580 resolved, since 2026-07-03)
| PRED SURV BUCKET | N | PREDICTED |
REALIZED OTM | GAP |
| 0-60% | 26 | 51% | 73% | +22pp |
| 60-70% | 33 | 67% | 73% | +6pp |
| 70-80% | 89 | 76% | 76% | +1pp |
| 80-90% | 184 | 85% | 84% | -2pp |
| 90-100% | 119 | 94% | 95% | +1pp |
Touch odds: predicted 36% vs realized 38% (n=450, 437/450 from daily highs (exact); the rest from spot samples, which undercount intraday touches).
Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.49x (W29) to 1.40x (W32) over 10 weeks; last week 0.76x. The line above is the average of those weeks, not a forecast for the next one.
Same forecasts, split by the position's own
IV. The single gap above is an average of opposite signals:
the model is close to calibrated on the high-IV names that carry most
of this book's risk, and conservative only on the quiet ones. Reading
the book-level number as "sell closer everywhere" would borrow a quiet
stock's safety margin and spend it on the most volatile position.
Split by IV rather than by ticker because IV is what actually drives
the error, and because per-ticker is unusable here (31 tickers over
451 resolutions, median n=3). Display only: no gate and no
correction reads this.
| IV BAND | N | PRED SURV |
REALIZED OTM | GAP |
TOUCH P→R |
BREACHES |
| IV < 45% | 110 | 81% | 80% | -1pp | 39% → 49% | 22 |
| IV 45-75% | 113 | 80% | 80% | -1pp | 41% → 41% | 23 |
| IV ≥ 75% | 228 | 84% | 88% | +4pp | 33% → 30% | 28 |
MEASURED, NOT ARMED · the gaps above are recorded but are not correcting survival or touch yet. Factors arm only once the graded sample has seen varied tape: ≥30 contracts, ≥6 distinct expiry weeks, ≥60 days of calendar span, ≥10 actual breaches. That gate exists because implied vol sits structurally above realized (the variance risk premium IS why selling calls pays), so a pass over one quiet or one falling stretch will always claim the model is too pessimistic and beg it to sell closer. Obeying that would strip the margin exactly when vol returns.
○ WAIT CC NEAR ATM BORDERLINE
GOOG · 5c · Joint:1782
LEAPS-ONLY
⚠ EARNINGS · UPCOMING
2026-10-28 (Wed)
in 19 days
Any expiration on or after this date carries earnings-gap risk.
Consider further-OTM strikes or shorter expirations.
⏱ NEAR STRIKE · PRE-LOAD ROLL ORDER If it crosses $355.00: roll to the ROUTED pick: $395.00 Nov 27 '26 (49d) · at trip ~-$0.33/sh. Pre-load a conditional order in TWS at $355.00 now so it fires on nights you are not watching. A cross is a payday here: $2,328 at the cap.
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Roll early: only $2 of room past the strike (~0.3 typical days). One normal day can jump it, so roll on the approach, do not wait for the cross
ACT
before $355
on the approach · the window past the strike is too short
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤15d)
up to ~$360
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$357
$2 of room · ~0.3 typical days
$347.47 now
$355 strike · free roll gone above $357
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤15d): stock at $355 → up to $360 · stock at $356 → up to $360 · above $357 → capped below the stock
Later expiries cross earnings and are not counted (never sell income into a print), so the longest free roll here is 14d.
MARKET
STOCK$347.47Joint: 5centry ~$335.00 · +3.7%
CURRENT CC$355.00Oct 16 '26 · 7d · mark 2.86 (2.74 / 2.98)
CC STATUSOTM 2.2%71% survT:59%hist 76%hist 46%0.54σ · extrinsic 2.86
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$392.50-13.0% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$349.37-0.5% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-450.00
CC BUYBACK-$1,430
CLOSE P/L$-1,880
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-450.00
STOCK @ $355.00$2,328
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.74
CC INC/MO$6,129
CALLS NET 90D$6.7k/mokeep 89% · 14 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$310.00C / -$355.00CLEAPS-only · LC / CC
CC LINEAGE
+2.47 (earlier legs realized +1.46/sh, already banked) = +2.47/sh
(+$1,235 on 5c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $355.00 is 2.2% OTM (71% survival — borderline). Touch odds 59% before expiry. Theta -$0.38/d with 7d left is doing the work. Monitor; if stock breaks $355.00 or sigma drops below 0.50, roll options appear. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-450.00 · at cap $2,328. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $373.75. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $362.50C Oct 23 '26 (14d) · +$8/sh room · net +$40.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $445.00C Mar 19 '27 (161d) · +$90/sh room · net +$2,238
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
⏳ WAIT · advisory only · see fortress block above
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $355.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 7d · cap now $2,328 · spot $347
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
| ✓ ROUTED | roll to 5× | $395.00C Nov 27 '26 · 49d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe | $4.25 | 0.13 | 85% T:31% | +$695.00 | $245.00 | $17,782 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$496.43/mo of added tenor vs $6,129/mo run rate at trip: ~+$1.99/sh |
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $410.00C Nov 20 '26 | roll to 5× | $377.50C Oct 23 '26 · 14d ✓ CC-safe | $0.93 | 0.09 | 92% T:16% | $-965.00 | $-1,415 | $9,665 | at trip: ~-$2.07/sh |
◆ SAFER hist touch ~10% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 5× | $385.00C Oct 23 '26 · 14d ✓ CC-safe | $0.57 | 0.06 | 95% T:10% | $-1,142 | $-1,593 | $12,254 | at trip: ~-$2.74/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $360.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $14.22/sh now → $10.06 mid-life (likely $12.44–$15.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,790 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 21, at $365 (overshoots $4.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$363 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$3.13/sh | +$1,567 cycle +$5,542 [+$635…+$1,240] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$368 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$1.12/sh | +$558 cycle +$4,533 [-$475…+$150] · 31% credit | 72% surv 60% |
| SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$360 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.18/sh | +$88 cycle +$4,063 [-$706…-$217] · 18% credit | 65% surv 52% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$403 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$7.42/sh | -$3,710 cycle +$265 [-$5,791…-$4,571] | 89% surv 88% |
| budget: banked $3,975 debit $3,710 (93% used) → whole cycle still +$265 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,236/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $370.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $14.62/sh now → $10.34 mid-life (likely $10.73–$15.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,245 simulated challenges: the $370 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 21, at $375 (overshoots $4.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$373 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$2.74/sh | +$1,368 cycle +$3,893 [+$589…+$1,625] · 99% credit | 69% surv 55% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$378 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.71/sh | +$357 cycle +$2,882 [-$525…+$522] · 43% credit | 72% surv 60% |
| SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$370 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$0.16/sh | -$81 cycle +$2,444 [-$755…+$60] · 27% credit | 65% surv 52% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$393 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$3.97/sh | -$1,984 cycle +$541 [-$3,264…-$2,035] · 3% credit | 80% surv 75% |
| budget: banked $2,525 debit $1,984 (79% used) → whole cycle still +$541 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,985/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $415.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $16.39/sh now → $11.59 mid-life (likely $8.21–$13.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 123 simulated challenges: the $415 strike is typically first touched on day 16 of 21, at $420 (overshoots $5.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$418 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$1.30/sh | +$648 cycle +$923 [+$759…+$2,400] · 95% credit | 67% surv 54% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$418 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.59/sh | +$297 cycle +$572 [+$527…+$2,110] · 89% credit | 69% surv 55% |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$415 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$1.91/sh | -$954 cycle -$679 [-$825…+$499] · 39% credit | 65% surv 51% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $380.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $15.01/sh now → $10.62 mid-life (likely $9.79–$14.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 800 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 12 of 21, at $385 (overshoots $4.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$383 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$2.31/sh | +$1,154 cycle +$2,704 [+$551…+$1,855] · 98% credit | 69% surv 55% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$388 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.28/sh | +$142 cycle +$1,692 [-$578…+$688] · 46% credit | 72% surv 60% |
| SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$380 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$0.52/sh | -$258 cycle +$1,292 [-$799…+$218] · 31% credit | 65% surv 51% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$393 | 13 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$2.87/sh | -$1,433 cycle +$117 [-$2,277…-$1,094] · 8% credit | 74% surv 66% |
| budget: banked $1,550 debit $1,433 (92% used) → whole cycle still +$117 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,843/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $360C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn +$2,695 66% T:70% flat +$2,245 · cap +$6,868 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$7.60/sh | $355C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$1,082 66% T:69% flat +$632.50 · cap +$3,411 | $360C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$3,332 65% T:72% flat +$2,882 · cap +$7,506 -1pp surv for +14d | $365C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$3,545 68% T:67% flat +$3,095 · cap +$9,563 +2pp surv for +14d | $365C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$4,108 67% T:69% flat +$3,657 · cap +$10,125 -1pp surv for +7d · +52% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $370C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn +$1,245 76% T:50% flat +$795.00 · cap +$9,108 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$3.90/sh | $355C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$1,082 66% T:69% flat +$632.50 · cap +$3,411 | = ★ | $375C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$2,307 76% T:50% flat +$1,857 · cap +$12,015 +0pp surv for +21d | = |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $415C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn -$1,100 96% T:8% flat -$1,550 · cap +$23,366 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$2.68/sh | $385C Oct 23 '26 (14d) -$1,142 95% T:10% flat -$1,593 · cap +$12,254 | = ★ | $430C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn -$940.00 96% T:8% flat -$1,390 · cap +$29,060 ≈ same touch for +21d | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $380C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn +$232.50 84% T:34% flat -$217.50 · cap +$11,785 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$1.20/sh | $362.5C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$47.50 78% T:44% flat -$402.50 · cap +$5,143 | $385C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$295.00 85% T:30% flat -$155.00 · cap +$13,692 cap +$22.5 for +14d | $400C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$72.50 89% T:22% flat -$377.50 · cap +$19,004 cap +$15 for +14d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (83) · Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +2 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $355.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 7d · cap now $2,328 · spot $347
⚠ RE-STRIKE, NOT A HARVESTCurrent call is still live (delta 0.31, above the 0.20 harvest band): closing it costs $2.86/sh ($1,430 total). Every net credit below already nets that buyback; the price of the extra income is a LOWER cap.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 5× | $352.50C Oct 09 '26 · 0d ✓ CC-safe | $0.35 | 0.18 | 86% T:29% | $-1,255 | $-1,705 | $150.86 | — |
ALL CANDIDATES (1) · Oct 09 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
loading...
○ WAIT CC NEAR ATM BORDERLINE
GOOG · 15c · Neville:0865
⚠ EARNINGS · UPCOMING
2026-10-28 (Wed)
in 19 days
Any expiration on or after this date carries earnings-gap risk.
Consider further-OTM strikes or shorter expirations.
⏱ NEAR STRIKE · PRE-LOAD ROLL ORDER If it crosses $355.00: roll to the ROUTED pick: $395.00 Nov 27 '26 (49d) · at trip ~-$0.33/sh. Pre-load a conditional order in TWS at $355.00 now so it fires on nights you are not watching. A cross is a payday here: $12,265 at the cap.
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Roll early: only $2 of room past the strike (~0.3 typical days). One normal day can jump it, so roll on the approach, do not wait for the cross
ACT
before $355
on the approach · the window past the strike is too short
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤15d)
up to ~$360
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$357
$2 of room · ~0.3 typical days
$347.47 now
$355 strike · free roll gone above $357
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤15d): stock at $355 → up to $360 · stock at $356 → up to $360 · above $357 → capped below the stock
Later expiries cross earnings and are not counted (never sell income into a print), so the longest free roll here is 14d.
MARKET
STOCK$347.47Neville: 15centry ~$335.00 · +3.7%
CURRENT CC$355.00Oct 16 '26 · 7d · mark 2.86 (2.74 / 2.98)
CC STATUSOTM 2.2%71% survT:59%hist 76%hist 46%0.54σ · extrinsic 2.86
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$373.00-7.3% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$346.10+0.4% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$2,438
CC BUYBACK-$4,290
CLOSE P/L$-1,852
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$2,438
STOCK @ $355.00$12,265
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.87
CC INC/MO$18,386
CALLS NET 90D$6.7k/mokeep 89% · 14 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$300.00C / -$345.00P / +$310.00P / -$355.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
+2.47 (earlier legs realized +1.46/sh, already banked) = +2.47/sh
(+$3,705 on 15c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $355.00 is 2.2% OTM (71% survival — borderline). Touch odds 59% before expiry. Theta -$0.38/d with 7d left is doing the work. Monitor; if stock breaks $355.00 or sigma drops below 0.50, roll options appear. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $2,438 · at cap $12,265. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $373.75. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $362.50C Oct 23 '26 (14d) · +$8/sh room · net +$120.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $445.00C Mar 19 '27 (161d) · +$90/sh room · net +$6,712
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
⏳ WAIT · advisory only · see fortress block above
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $355.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 7d · cap now $12,265 · spot $347
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
| ✓ ROUTED | roll to 15× | $395.00C Nov 27 '26 · 49d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe | $4.25 | 0.13 | 85% T:31% | +$2,085 | $4,523 | $66,554 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$1,489/mo of added tenor vs $18,386/mo run rate at trip: ~+$1.99/sh |
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $410.00C Nov 20 '26 | roll to 15× | $377.50C Oct 23 '26 · 14d ✓ CC-safe | $0.93 | 0.09 | 92% T:16% | $-2,895 | $-457.50 | $38,735 | at trip: ~-$2.07/sh |
◆ SAFER hist touch ~10% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 15× | $385.00C Oct 23 '26 · 14d ✓ CC-safe | $0.57 | 0.06 | 95% T:10% | $-3,428 | $-990.00 | $47,990 | at trip: ~-$2.74/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $360.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $14.22/sh now → $10.06 mid-life (likely $12.29–$15.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,786 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 21, at $364 (overshoots $4.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$363 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$3.13/sh | +$4,702 cycle +$16,627 [+$1,969…+$3,840] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | +$34,583 SAFE cap gain +$32,145 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$368 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$1.12/sh | +$1,673 cycle +$13,598 [-$1,324…+$560] · 34% credit | 72% surv 60% | +$38,230 SAFE cap gain +$35,793 |
| SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$360 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.18/sh | +$264 cycle +$12,189 [-$2,034…-$533] · 19% credit | 65% surv 52% | +$28,165 SAFE cap gain +$25,727 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$403 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$7.42/sh | -$11,131 cycle +$794 [-$17,118…-$13,593] | 89% surv 88% | +$73,609 SAFE cap gain +$71,172 |
| budget: banked $11,925 debit $11,131 (93% used) → whole cycle still +$794 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $3,708/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $370.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $14.62/sh now → $10.34 mid-life (likely $10.87–$15.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,269 simulated challenges: the $370 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 21, at $374 (overshoots $4.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$373 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$2.74/sh | +$4,103 cycle +$11,678 [+$1,849…+$4,912] · 99% credit | 69% surv 55% | +$43,045 SAFE cap gain +$40,608 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$378 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.71/sh | +$1,070 cycle +$8,645 [-$1,481…+$1,592] · 43% credit | 72% surv 60% | +$46,801 SAFE cap gain +$44,364 |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$370 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$0.16/sh | -$242 cycle +$7,333 [-$2,188…+$197] · 28% credit | 65% surv 52% | +$36,625 SAFE cap gain +$34,188 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$393 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$3.97/sh | -$5,952 cycle +$1,623 [-$9,617…-$6,180] · 2% credit | 80% surv 75% | +$60,444 SAFE cap gain +$58,006 |
| budget: banked $7,575 debit $5,952 (79% used) → whole cycle still +$1,623 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $8,955/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $415.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $16.39/sh now → $11.59 mid-life (likely $7.27–$14.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 112 simulated challenges: the $415 strike is typically first touched on day 16 of 21, at $421 (overshoots $5.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$418 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.59/sh | +$890 cycle +$1,715 [+$1,461…+$7,514] · 92% credit | 69% surv 55% | +$95,795 SAFE cap gain +$93,357 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$415 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$1.91/sh | -$2,861 cycle -$2,036 [-$2,469…+$2,577] · 46% credit | 65% surv 51% | +$89,606 SAFE cap gain +$87,168 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $380.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $15.01/sh now → $10.62 mid-life (likely $9.58–$14.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 835 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 12 of 21, at $385 (overshoots $4.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$383 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$2.31/sh | +$3,463 cycle +$8,113 [+$1,742…+$5,731] · 98% credit | 69% surv 55% | +$53,110 SAFE cap gain +$50,673 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$388 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.28/sh | +$425 cycle +$5,075 [-$1,601…+$2,424] · 51% credit | 72% surv 60% | +$56,962 SAFE cap gain +$54,524 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$380 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$0.52/sh | -$775 cycle +$3,875 [-$2,310…+$855] · 36% credit | 65% surv 51% | +$46,707 SAFE cap gain +$44,270 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$393 | 13 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$2.87/sh | -$4,300 cycle +$350 [-$6,819…-$3,013] · 9% credit | 74% surv 66% | +$59,799 SAFE cap gain +$57,362 |
| budget: banked $4,650 debit $4,300 (92% used) → whole cycle still +$350 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $14,529/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $360C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn +$8,085 66% T:70% flat +$10,522 · cap +$26,875 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$7.60/sh | $355C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$3,248 66% T:69% flat +$5,685 · cap +$15,512 | $360C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$9,997 65% T:72% flat +$12,435 · cap +$28,788 -1pp surv for +14d | $365C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$10,635 68% T:67% flat +$13,072 · cap +$35,951 +2pp surv for +14d | $365C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$12,322 67% T:69% flat +$14,760 · cap +$37,638 -1pp surv for +7d · +39% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $370C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn +$3,735 76% T:50% flat +$6,173 · cap +$35,576 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$3.90/sh | $355C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$3,248 66% T:69% flat +$5,685 · cap +$15,512 | = ★ | $375C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$6,922 76% T:50% flat +$9,360 · cap +$45,289 +0pp surv for +21d | = |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $415C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn -$3,300 96% T:8% flat -$862.50 · cap +$87,271 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$2.68/sh | $385C Oct 23 '26 (14d) -$3,428 95% T:10% flat -$990.00 · cap +$47,990 | = ★ | $430C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn -$2,820 96% T:8% flat -$382.50 · cap +$107,327 ≈ same touch for +21d | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $380C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn +$697.50 84% T:34% flat +$3,135 · cap +$45,590 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$1.20/sh | $362.5C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$142.50 78% T:44% flat +$2,580 · cap +$22,196 | $385C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$885.00 85% T:30% flat +$3,323 · cap +$52,303 cap +$22.5 for +14d | $400C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$217.50 89% T:22% flat +$2,655 · cap +$71,212 cap +$15 for +14d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (83) · Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +2 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $355.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 7d · cap now $12,265 · spot $347
⚠ RE-STRIKE, NOT A HARVESTCurrent call is still live (delta 0.31, above the 0.20 harvest band): closing it costs $2.86/sh ($4,290 total). Every net credit below already nets that buyback; the price of the extra income is a LOWER cap.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 15× | $352.50C Oct 09 '26 · 0d ✓ CC-safe | $0.35 | 0.18 | 86% T:29% | $-3,765 | $-1,327 | $5,237 | — |
ALL CANDIDATES (1) · Oct 09 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ WAIT (MARGINAL) CC OTM HIGH TOUCH
MSTR · 4c · RetireInc:7291
⚠️
OPEN CC SPANS EARNINGS
2026-10-29 (Thu)
in 20 days
Your open $170.00 Nov 20 '26 CC is still live on the report date. Consider buying it back before 2026-10-29 to sidestep the gap, or confirm you want the exposure.
MARKET
STOCK$153.52RetireInc: 4centry ~$163.00 · -5.8%
CURRENT CC$170.00Nov 20 '26 · 42d · mark 7.93 (7.55 / 8.30)
CC STATUSOTM 10.7%71% survT:62%hist 76%hist 56%0.56σ · extrinsic 7.93
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$161.00-4.9% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$162.69-6.0% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-4,090
CC BUYBACK-$3,170
CLOSE P/L$-7,260
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-4,090
STOCK @ $170.00$3,770
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$77/pt+0.19δ/sh
CC INC/MO$2,264
CALLS NET 90D$1.5k/mokeep 91% · 11 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$125.00C / -$185.00P / +$55.00P / -$170.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
+1.03 (earlier legs realized +0.83/sh, already banked) = +1.03/sh
(+$412.00 on 4c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $170.00 is 10.7% OTM but only 71% survival. credit rolls exist but none lifts survival meaningfully above 71%. Best credit roll: $170.00 at 71% survival. Not enough improvement to justify the swap — let the current CC run. Hold-to-expiry: hold flat $-4,090 · to cap $3,770. Branches: survive (71%): keep $3,170 extrinsic, penny-buy & rewrite · touch (62%): roll that session at the at-trip door (ATM = peak time value, usually beats pre-paying today; per-row estimate in the roll table). Weekly gate: EXTENDED. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $171.88. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $185.00C Jan 15 '27 (98d) · +$15/sh room · net +$1,084✓ DEEPEST FREE · $240.00C Mar 19 '27 (161d) · +$70/sh room · net +$64.00
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Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $170.00C · Nov 20 '26 · 42d · cap now $3,770 · spot $154
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $170.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 24 of 49); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $19.60/sh now → $13.88 mid-life (likely $15.95–$20.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,674 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 17 of 49, at $173 (overshoots $3.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$171 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | +$1.51/sh | +$603 cycle +$3,803 [-$116…+$444] · 58% credit | 69% surv 56% | +$7,869 SAFE cap gain +$11,959 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$171 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | +$1.51/sh | +$603 cycle +$3,803 [-$116…+$444] · 58% credit | 69% surv 56% | +$7,869 SAFE cap gain +$11,959 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$170 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | +$1.54/sh | +$615 cycle +$3,815 [-$163…+$444] · 53% credit | 68% surv 55% | +$7,184 SAFE cap gain +$11,274 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$201 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | -$7.18/sh | -$2,873 cycle +$327 [-$3,997…-$3,285] · 0% credit | 82% surv 78% | +$18,375 SAFE cap gain +$22,465 |
| budget: banked $3,200 debit $2,873 (90% used) → whole cycle still +$327 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $1,746/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $185.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 24 of 49); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $22.85/sh now → $16.18 mid-life (likely $14.97–$21.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$12.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,008 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 24 of 49, at $189 (overshoots $3.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$186 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | +$1.81/sh | +$725 cycle +$2,305 [+$110…+$1,128] · 83% credit | 69% surv 57% | +$13,401 SAFE cap gain +$17,491 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$186 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | +$1.81/sh | +$725 cycle +$2,305 [+$110…+$1,128] · 83% credit | 69% surv 57% | +$13,401 SAFE cap gain +$17,491 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$185 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | +$1.74/sh | +$697 cycle +$2,277 [+$33…+$1,120] · 76% credit | 68% surv 55% | +$12,683 SAFE cap gain +$16,773 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$201 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | -$3.60/sh | -$1,440 cycle +$140 [-$2,198…-$1,153] · 8% credit | 75% surv 67% | +$18,188 SAFE cap gain +$22,278 |
| budget: banked $1,580 debit $1,440 (91% used) → whole cycle still +$140 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $3,281/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤70d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $170C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$410.00 71% T:63% flat -$3,680 · cap +$4,180 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe | — | — | — | $170C Dec 18 '26 (70d) ⚠ earn +$1,270 69% T:69% flat -$2,820 · cap +$5,040 +73% better outcome vs ≤20d · +21d |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $185C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn -$1,000 81% T:41% flat -$5,090 · cap +$9,924 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$0.17/sh | — | — | — | $200C Dec 18 '26 (70d) ⚠ earn -$1,010 85% T:34% flat -$5,100 · cap +$17,068 |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $170C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$410.00 71% T:63% flat -$3,680 · cap +$4,180 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe | — | — | — | $180C Dec 18 '26 (70d) ⚠ earn +$330.00 75% T:54% flat -$3,760 · cap +$8,870 |
ALL CANDIDATES (41) · Nov 27 '26 / Dec 18 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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○ WAIT CC NEAR ATM BORDERLINE
IGV · 12c · Main:1299
LEAPS-ONLY
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Roll early: only $2 of room past the strike (~0.9 typical days). One normal day can jump it, so roll on the approach, do not wait for the cross
ACT
before $115
on the approach · the window past the strike is too short
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤30d)
up to ~$118
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$117
$2 of room · ~0.9 typical days
$110.94 now
$115 strike
$117 free roll gone
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤30d): stock at $115 → up to $118 · stock at $116 → up to $118 · above $117 → capped below the stock
Other tenor budgets: ≤45d gone above ~$118.50
MARKET
STOCK$110.94Main: 12centry ~$85.00 · +30.5%
CURRENT CC$115.00Oct 23 '26 · 14d · mark 1.31 (0.96 / 1.67)
CC STATUSOTM 3.7%73% survT:55%hist 76%hist 46%0.62σ · extrinsic 1.31
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$96.50+13.0% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$88.29+20.4% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$24,120
CC BUYBACK-$1,578
CLOSE P/L$22,542
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$24,120
STOCK @ $115.00$28,637
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.93
CC INC/MO$3,381
CALLS NET 90D$744/mokeep 66% · 4 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$70.00C / -$115.00CLEAPS-only · LC / CC
CC LINEAGE
-2.76 (earlier legs realized +0.53/sh, already banked) = -2.76/sh
(-$3,312 on 12c) ·
DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · room was BOUGHT; a paid roll sits in the chain
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $115.00 is 3.7% OTM (73% survival — borderline). Touch odds 55% before expiry. Theta -$0.08/d with 14d left is doing the work. Monitor; if stock breaks $115.00 or sigma drops below 0.50, roll options appear. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $24,120 · at cap $28,637. Weekly gate: EXTENDED. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $113.67. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $118.00C Oct 30 '26 (21d) · +$3/sh room · net +$24.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $145.00C Mar 19 '27 (161d) · +$30/sh room · net +$114.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
⏳ WAIT · advisory only · see fortress block above
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $115.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 14d · cap now $28,637 · spot $111
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~17% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 12× | $130.00C Nov 20 '26 · 42d ✓ CC-safe | $0.43 | 0.07 | 93% T:14% | $-1,056 | $23,064 | $44,272 | at trip: ~-$1.09/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $115.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.06/sh now → $3.58 mid-life (likely $4.21–$5.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,778 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 28, at $116 (overshoots $1.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$115 | 20 Nov 2026 | 28d left | +$0.04/sh | +$51 cycle +$2,451 [-$827…-$180] · 18% credit | 66% surv 52% |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$115 | 13 Nov 2026 | 21d left | -$0.49/sh | -$586 cycle +$1,814 [-$1,470…-$877] · 6% credit | 65% surv 52% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$119 | 20 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$1.59/sh | -$1,911 cycle +$489 [-$3,094…-$2,327] · 0% credit | 75% surv 68% |
| budget: banked $2,400 debit $1,911 (80% used) → whole cycle still +$489 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $2,558/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $119.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 17 of 35); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.77/sh now → $4.08 mid-life (likely $4.21–$5.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,269 simulated challenges: the $119 strike is typically first touched on day 16 of 35, at $120 (overshoots $1.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$119 | 20 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$0.74/sh | -$890 cycle +$706 [-$1,546…-$779] · 9% credit | 66% surv 51% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$120 | 20 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$1.24/sh | -$1,482 cycle +$114 [-$2,203…-$1,453] · 3% credit | 69% surv 56% |
| budget: banked $1,596 debit $1,482 (93% used) → whole cycle still +$114 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $4,273/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $115C Nov 06 '26 (28d) +$1,386 67% T:67% flat +$25,506 · cap +$30,023 ✓ CC-safe | — | = ★ | $115C Nov 20 '26 (42d) +$1,986 65% T:72% flat +$26,106 · cap +$30,623 -2pp surv for +14d | $116C Nov 27 '26 (49d) +$2,712 66% T:71% flat +$26,832 · cap +$32,462 +1pp surv for +7d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $115C Nov 06 '26 (28d) +$1,386 67% T:67% flat +$25,506 · cap +$30,023 ✓ CC-safe | — | = ★ | $119C Nov 13 '26 (35d) +$1,410 78% T:46% flat +$25,530 · cap +$34,498 +10pp surv for +7d · +10pp surv vs ≤20d · +7d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (62) · Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 / Nov 20 '26 +1 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $115.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 14d · cap now $28,637 · spot $111
⚠ RE-STRIKE, NOT A HARVESTCurrent call is still live (delta 0.29, above the 0.20 harvest band): closing it costs $1.31/sh ($1,578 total). Every net credit below already nets that buyback; the price of the extra income is a LOWER cap.
NO HIGH-CONVICTION PICK: no candidate clears 65% survival with a viable credit. See table for trade-offs.
ALL CANDIDATES (2) · Oct 09 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 1 roll-down(s) at touch
40-50%
· up to $-1,410 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE |
NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
$112.00 ✓ CC-safe | Oct 09 '26 · 0d | $-1,410 | 75% | 50% |
○ WAIT CC NEAR ATM
AMZN · 5c · Joint:1782
⚠ EARNINGS · UPCOMING
2026-10-29 (Thu)
in 20 days
Any expiration on or after this date carries earnings-gap risk.
Consider further-OTM strikes or shorter expirations.
⏱ NEAR STRIKE · PRE-LOAD ROLL ORDER If it crosses $262.50: roll to the ROUTED pick: $300.00 Nov 20 '26 (42d) · at trip ~-$1.25/sh. Pre-load a conditional order in TWS at $262.50 now so it fires on nights you are not watching.
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Roll early: only $3.50 of room past the strike (~0.8 typical days). One normal day can jump it, so roll on the approach, do not wait for the cross
ACT
before $262.50
on the approach · the window past the strike is too short
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤15d)
up to ~$267.50
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$266
$3.50 of room · ~0.8 typical days
$257.14 now
$262.50 strike
$266 free roll gone
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤15d): stock at $262.50 → up to $267.50 · stock at $264 → up to $267.50 · stock at $265 → up to $267.50 · above $266 → capped below the stock
Later expiries cross earnings and are not counted (never sell income into a print), so the longest free roll here is 14d.
Your current call already sits under the CC-safe floor $271.60, so rolls are not held to it: any higher strike is an improvement.
MARKET
STOCK$257.14Joint: 5centry ~$269.00 · -4.4%
CURRENT CC$262.50Oct 14 '26 · 5d · mark 1.33 (1.26 / 1.40)
CC STATUSOTM 2.1%75% survT:51%hist 76%hist 46%0.66σ · extrinsic 1.33
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$267.92-4.2% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$271.06-5.4% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-7,528
CC BUYBACK-$665.00
CLOSE P/L$-8,193
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-7,528
STOCK @ $262.50$-4,568
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$52/pt+0.10δ/sh
CC INC/MO$3,990
CALLS NET 90D$2.9k/mokeep 83% · 8 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$200.00C / -$250.00P / +$215.00P / -$262.50CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
-0.01 (earlier legs realized +1.15/sh, already banked) = -0.01/sh
(-$5.00 on 5c) ·
DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · room was BOUGHT; a paid roll sits in the chain
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $262.50 is 2.1% OTM (75% survival). Touch odds 51% before expiry. Monitor. If stock breaks $262.50, roll options appear below. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-7,528 · at cap $-4,568. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $277.16. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $265.00C Oct 16 '26 (7d) · +$2/sh room · net +$95.00 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $330.00C Mar 19 '27 (161d) · +$68/sh room · net +$2,340
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
⏳ WAIT · advisory only · see fortress block above
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 12 '26 (3d) · Oct 14 '26 (5d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 19 '26 (10d) · Oct 21 '26 (12d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $262.50C · Oct 14 '26 · 5d · cap now $-4,568 · spot $257
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
✓ ROUTED ▸ if challenged | roll to 5× | $300.00C Nov 20 '26 · 42d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe | $2.29 | 0.07 | 89% T:23% | +$480.00 | $-7,048 | $16,621 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$389.19/mo of added tenor vs $2,850/mo run rate at trip: ~+$1.01/sh |
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~17% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $310.00C Nov 27 '26 | roll to 5× | $275.00C Oct 19 '26 · 10d ✓ CC-safe | $0.56 | 0.09 | 93% T:14% | $-385.00 | $-7,913 | $1,950 | at trip: ~-$1.12/sh |
ROUTED · $300.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 21 of 42); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $16.71/sh now → $11.82 mid-life (likely $10.23–$15.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 621 simulated challenges: the $300 strike is typically first touched on day 24 of 42, at $304 (overshoots $3.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$300 | 27 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$2.97/sh | -$1,487 cycle -$357 [-$1,952…-$899] · 9% credit | 65% surv 52% | +$15,613 SAFE cap gain +$23,141 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $270.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $11.57/sh now → $8.18 mid-life (likely $9.31–$12.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,616 simulated challenges: the $270 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 21, at $273 (overshoots $3.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$273 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$2.53/sh | +$1,266 cycle +$3,966 [+$520…+$1,144] · 97% credit | 69% surv 56% | +$4,510 SAFE cap gain +$12,037 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$278 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.41/sh | +$205 cycle +$2,905 [-$664…+$21] · 26% credit | 72% surv 62% | +$6,330 SAFE cap gain +$13,858 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$270 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$71 cycle +$2,771 [-$535…-$37] · 24% credit | 65% surv 52% | +$1,768 SAFE cap gain +$9,295 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$298 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$5.11/sh | -$2,556 cycle +$144 [-$3,972…-$2,945] | 85% surv 83% | +$14,947 SAFE cap gain +$22,474 |
| budget: banked $2,700 debit $2,556 (95% used) → whole cycle still +$144 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,440/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $280.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $12.00/sh now → $8.49 mid-life (likely $7.90–$11.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 928 simulated challenges: the $280 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 21, at $284 (overshoots $3.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$283 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$2.17/sh | +$1,084 cycle +$2,609 [+$485…+$1,490] · 95% credit | 69% surv 56% | +$8,901 SAFE cap gain +$16,429 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$288 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.04/sh | +$19 cycle +$1,544 [-$692…+$331] · 36% credit | 72% surv 62% | +$10,688 SAFE cap gain +$18,215 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$280 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$0.20/sh | -$101 cycle +$1,424 [-$593…+$205] · 34% credit | 65% surv 52% | +$6,171 SAFE cap gain +$13,698 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$293 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$1.70/sh | -$850 cycle +$675 [-$1,675…-$586] · 13% credit | 75% surv 68% | +$12,656 SAFE cap gain +$20,183 |
| budget: banked $1,525 debit $850 (56% used) → whole cycle still +$675 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,181/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $305.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $13.07/sh now → $9.24 mid-life (likely $5.97–$10.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 184 simulated challenges: the $305 strike is typically first touched on day 16 of 21, at $309 (overshoots $3.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$308 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$1.11/sh | +$553 cycle +$823 [+$506…+$1,922] · 96% credit | 68% surv 56% | +$21,229 SAFE cap gain +$28,756 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$308 | 13 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$0.43/sh | -$213 cycle +$57 [-$213…+$1,053] · 66% credit | 70% surv 56% | +$20,498 SAFE cap gain +$28,025 |
| budget: banked $270 debit $213 (79% used) → whole cycle still +$57 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $5,511/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$305 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$1.17/sh | -$585 cycle -$315 [-$616…+$546] · 46% credit | 65% surv 51% | +$18,567 SAFE cap gain +$26,094 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $290.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $12.43/sh now → $8.79 mid-life (likely $6.96–$11.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 499 simulated challenges: the $290 strike is typically first touched on day 14 of 21, at $294 (overshoots $3.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$293 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$1.77/sh | +$885 cycle +$1,690 [+$541…+$1,699] · 96% credit | 69% surv 56% | +$13,671 SAFE cap gain +$21,198 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$293 | 13 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.27/sh | +$133 cycle +$938 [-$131…+$898] · 66% credit | 70% surv 56% | +$12,958 SAFE cap gain +$20,486 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$298 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$0.37/sh | -$184 cycle +$621 [-$628…+$576] · 44% credit | 72% surv 62% | +$15,424 SAFE cap gain +$22,951 |
| budget: banked $805 debit $184 (23% used) → whole cycle still +$621 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,948/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$290 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$0.57/sh | -$285 cycle +$520 [-$574…+$365] · 41% credit | 65% surv 52% | +$10,962 SAFE cap gain +$18,490 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $270C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn +$2,122 71% T:61% flat -$5,405 · cap +$1,697 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$5.07/sh | $265C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$847.50 70% T:60% flat -$6,680 · cap -$2,339 | $270C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$2,860 69% T:65% flat -$4,668 · cap +$2,434 -2pp surv for +14d | $270C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$3,698 67% T:70% flat -$3,830 · cap +$3,272 -2pp surv for +14d | $270C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$4,160 66% T:71% flat -$3,368 · cap +$3,734 -0pp surv for +7d · +71% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $280C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn +$947.50 82% T:37% flat -$6,580 · cap +$6,044 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$2.03/sh | $265C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$847.50 70% T:60% flat -$6,680 · cap -$2,339 | = ★ | $285C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$1,622 80% T:42% flat -$5,905 · cap +$9,480 -2pp surv for +21d | = |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $305C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn -$332.50 96% T:8% flat -$7,860 · cap +$18,570 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$1.24/sh | $275C Oct 16 '26 (7d) -$505.00 95% T:10% flat -$8,033 · cap +$1,830 | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $290C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn +$200.00 90% T:21% flat -$7,328 · cap +$10,819 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$0.17/sh | $270C Oct 21 '26 (12d) +$25.00 83% T:35% flat -$7,503 · cap -$400.75 | $300C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$47.50 92% T:16% flat -$7,480 · cap +$16,189 cap +$30 for +16d | $305C Nov 13 '26 (35d) ⚠ earn +$42.50 93% T:15% flat -$7,485 · cap +$18,945 cap +$5 for +7d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (89) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 19 '26 / Oct 21 '26 / Oct 23 '26 +5 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $262.50C · Oct 14 '26 · 5d · cap now $-4,568 · spot $257
⚠ RE-STRIKE, NOT A HARVESTCurrent call is still live (delta 0.27, above the 0.20 harvest band): closing it costs $1.33/sh ($665 total). Every net credit below already nets that buyback; the price of the extra income is a LOWER cap.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 5× | $260.00C Oct 09 '26 · 0d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-5,770 if capped) | $0.41 | 0.23 | 83% T:34% | $-462.50 | $-7,990 | $-6,411 | ⚠ locks in $5,770 ($11.54/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (1) · Oct 09 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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○ WAIT CC NEAR ATM
GOOG · 5c · Neville:0865
⚠ EARNINGS · UPCOMING
2026-10-28 (Wed)
in 19 days
Any expiration on or after this date carries earnings-gap risk.
Consider further-OTM strikes or shorter expirations.
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Roll early: only $2 of room past the strike (~0.3 typical days). One normal day can jump it, so roll on the approach, do not wait for the cross
ACT
before $360
on the approach · the window past the strike is too short
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤15d)
up to ~$365
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$362
$2 of room · ~0.3 typical days
$347.47 now
$360 strike · free roll gone above $362
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤15d): stock at $360 → up to $365 · stock at $361 → up to $362.50 · above $362 → capped below the stock
Later expiries cross earnings and are not counted (never sell income into a print), so the longest free roll here is 14d.
Your current call already sits under the CC-safe floor $388.51, so rolls are not held to it: any higher strike is an improvement.
MARKET
STOCK$347.47Neville: 5centry ~$369.00 · -5.8%
CURRENT CC$360.00Oct 16 '26 · 7d · mark 1.71 (1.63 / 1.78)
CC STATUSOTM 3.6%81% survT:39%hist 84%hist 37%0.86σ · extrinsic 1.71
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$398.00-14.5% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$385.62-11.0% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-15,975
CC BUYBACK-$852.50
CLOSE P/L$-16,827
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-15,975
STOCK @ $360.00$-10,890
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.81
CC INC/MO$3,654
CALLS NET 90D$6.7k/mokeep 89% · 14 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$340.00C / -$405.00P / +$360.00P / -$360.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
-1.13 (earlier legs realized +1.46/sh, already banked) = -1.13/sh
(-$565.00 on 5c) ·
DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · room was BOUGHT; a paid roll sits in the chain
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $360.00 is 3.6% OTM (81% survival). Touch odds 39% before expiry. Monitor. If stock breaks $360.00, roll options appear below. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-15,975 · at cap $-10,890. ⚠ LC has 251d left. Plan rebuild within 3 months. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $373.75. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $367.50C Oct 23 '26 (14d) · +$8/sh room · net +$105.00 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $450.00C Jan 15 '27 (98d) · +$90/sh room · net +$295.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
⏳ WAIT · advisory only · see fortress block above
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $360.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 7d · cap now $-10,890 · spot $347
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe richer door past earnings: $410.00C Nov 20 '26 | roll to 5× | $377.50C Oct 23 '26 · 14d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-3,550 if capped) | $0.93 | 0.09 | 92% T:16% | $-387.50 | $-16,362 | $-4,175 | ⚠ locks in $3,550 ($7.10/sh) loss if capped at trip: ~-$1.29/sh |
◆ SAFER hist touch ~10% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll to 5× | $385.00C Oct 23 '26 · 14d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-328.00 if capped) | $0.57 | 0.06 | 95% T:10% | $-565.00 | $-16,540 | $-1,309 | ⚠ locks in $328.00 ($0.66/sh) loss if capped at trip: ~-$2.28/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $360.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $14.22/sh now → $10.06 mid-life (likely $12.44–$15.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,790 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 21, at $365 (overshoots $4.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$363 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$3.13/sh | +$1,567 cycle +$5,542 [+$635…+$1,240] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$6,533 NOT cap gain +$9,442 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$368 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$1.12/sh | +$558 cycle +$4,533 [-$475…+$150] · 31% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$5,370 NOT cap gain +$10,605 |
| SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$360 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.18/sh | +$88 cycle +$4,063 [-$706…-$217] · 18% credit | 65% surv 52% | -$8,313 NOT cap gain +$7,662 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$403 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$7.42/sh | -$3,710 cycle +$265 [-$5,791…-$4,571] | 89% surv 88% | +$6,637 SAFE cap gain +$22,612 |
| budget: banked $3,975 debit $3,710 (93% used) → whole cycle still +$265 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,236/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $375.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $14.81/sh now → $10.48 mid-life (likely $10.12–$14.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 984 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 21, at $380 (overshoots $4.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$378 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$2.53/sh | +$1,263 cycle +$3,263 [+$582…+$1,745] · 99% credit | 69% surv 55% | -$2,165 NOT cap gain +$13,810 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$383 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.50/sh | +$251 cycle +$2,251 [-$522…+$625] · 46% credit | 72% surv 60% | -$882 NOT cap gain +$15,093 |
| SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$375 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$0.34/sh | -$168 cycle +$1,832 [-$761…+$152] · 31% credit | 65% surv 51% | -$4,012 NOT cap gain +$11,963 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$393 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$3.06/sh | -$1,532 cycle +$468 [-$2,640…-$1,326] · 8% credit | 76% surv 70% | +$2,029 SAFE cap gain +$18,004 |
| budget: banked $2,000 debit $1,532 (77% used) → whole cycle still +$468 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,475/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $415.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $16.39/sh now → $11.59 mid-life (likely $8.21–$13.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 123 simulated challenges: the $415 strike is typically first touched on day 16 of 21, at $420 (overshoots $5.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$418 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$1.30/sh | +$648 cycle +$923 [+$759…+$2,400] · 95% credit | 67% surv 54% | +$14,417 SAFE cap gain +$30,392 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$418 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.59/sh | +$297 cycle +$572 [+$527…+$2,110] · 89% credit | 69% surv 55% | +$14,340 SAFE cap gain +$30,315 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$415 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$1.91/sh | -$954 cycle -$679 [-$825…+$499] · 39% credit | 65% surv 51% | +$12,390 SAFE cap gain +$28,365 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $390.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $15.41/sh now → $10.90 mid-life (likely $9.02–$14.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.88/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 506 simulated challenges: the $390 strike is typically first touched on day 13 of 21, at $395 (overshoots $4.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$393 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$1.85/sh | +$927 cycle +$1,867 [+$494…+$2,062] · 96% credit | 69% surv 55% | +$3,428 SAFE cap gain +$19,403 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$393 | 13 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.54/sh | +$272 cycle +$1,212 [-$187…+$1,188] · 65% credit | 68% surv 55% | +$3,104 SAFE cap gain +$19,079 |
| SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$390 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$0.89/sh | -$445 cycle +$495 [-$848…+$378] · 36% credit | 65% surv 51% | +$1,527 SAFE cap gain +$17,502 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$403 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | -$1.72/sh | -$858 cycle +$82 [-$1,675…+$42] · 25% credit | 72% surv 64% | +$6,144 SAFE cap gain +$22,119 |
| budget: banked $940 debit $858 (91% used) → whole cycle still +$82 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,623/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $360C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn +$3,272 66% T:70% flat -$12,702 · cap -$7,617 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ⚠ locks $7,870 if capped | $360C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$922.50 75% T:52% flat -$15,052 · cap -$9,967 | $360C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$3,910 65% T:72% flat -$12,065 · cap -$6,980 -9pp surv for +14d | $365C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$4,122 68% T:67% flat -$11,852 · cap -$4,738 +2pp surv for +14d | $365C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$4,685 67% T:69% flat -$11,290 · cap -$4,176 -1pp surv for +7d · +18% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $375C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn +$1,285 80% T:41% flat -$14,690 · cap -$3,517 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ⚠ locks $3,348 if capped at trip: ~+$3.95/sh | $360C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$922.50 75% T:52% flat -$15,052 · cap -$9,967 | = ★ | = ★ | $380C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$2,285 79% T:43% flat -$13,690 · cap -$488.19 -0pp surv for +21d |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $415C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn -$522.50 96% T:8% flat -$16,497 · cap +$10,909 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$2.44/sh | $385C Oct 23 '26 (14d) -$565.00 95% T:10% flat -$16,540 · cap -$1,309 | = ★ | $430C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn -$362.50 96% T:8% flat -$16,337 · cap +$17,156 ≈ same touch for +21d | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $390C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn +$160.00 89% T:22% flat -$15,815 · cap +$1,445 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$0.19/sh | $367.5C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$112.50 84% T:32% flat -$15,862 · cap -$7,734 | $395C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$212.50 90% T:20% flat -$15,762 · cap +$3,527 cap +$27.5 for +14d | $410C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$157.50 92% T:16% flat -$15,817 · cap +$9,559 cap +$15 for +14d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (83) · Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +2 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $360.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 7d · cap now $-10,890 · spot $347
⚠ RE-STRIKE, NOT A HARVESTCurrent call is still live (delta 0.21, above the 0.20 harvest band): closing it costs $1.71/sh ($852 total). Every net credit below already nets that buyback; the price of the extra income is a LOWER cap.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~13% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 5× | $355.00C Oct 09 '26 · 0d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-12,896 if capped) | $0.11 | 0.09 | 95% T:11% | $-797.50 | $-16,772 | $-13,717 | ⚠ locks in $12,896 ($25.79/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 5× | $352.50C Oct 09 '26 · 0d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-13,792 if capped) | $0.35 | 0.18 | 86% T:29% | $-677.50 | $-16,652 | $-14,611 | ⚠ locks in $13,792 ($27.58/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (2) · Oct 09 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 1 roll-down(s) at touch
40-50%
· up to $452.50 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE |
NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
● $357.50 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-10,978 if capped) | Oct 16 '26 · 7d | $452.50 | 76% | 48% |
○ WAIT CC NEAR ATM
SPY · 12c · Neville:0865
LEAPS-ONLY
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Hold. Nothing to do below $785 (83% it expires and you keep $1,050)
ACT AT
$785
hold below it · roll that session · pre-load in TWS
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤30d)
up to ~$801
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$793
$8 of room · ~1.8 typical days
$776.21 now
$785 strike
$793 free roll gone
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤30d): stock at $785 → up to $801 · stock at $788 → up to $798 · stock at $790 → up to $797 · above $793 → capped below the stock
Other tenor budgets: ≤15d gone above ~$787 · ≤45d gone above ~$797
MARKET
STOCK$776.21Neville: 12centry ~$695.00 · +11.7%
CURRENT CC$785.00Oct 15 '26 · 6d · mark 0.88 (0.87 / 0.88)
CC STATUSOTM 1.1%83% survT:34%hist 84%hist 37%0.96σ · extrinsic 0.88
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$764.00+1.6% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$702.76+9.5% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$72,174
CC BUYBACK-$1,050
CLOSE P/L$71,124
⚑ 88% of cap
$10.1k left this cycle
calls netted ~$1.5k/mo (90d)
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$72,174
STOCK @ $785.00$81,226
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.86
CC INC/MO$5,250
CALLS NET 90D$1.5k/mokeep 66% · 10 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$640.00C / -$785.00CLEAPS-only · LC / CC
CC LINEAGE
+0.55 (earlier legs realized +0.82/sh, already banked) = +0.55/sh
(+$660.00 on 12c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $785.00 is 1.1% OTM (83% survival). Touch odds 34% before expiry. Monitor. If stock breaks $785.00, roll options appear below. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $72,174 · at cap $81,226. Weekly gate: OVERBOUGHT. Reference Upper BB + 1σ (extension cap) at $788.39. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $790.00C Oct 30 '26 (21d) · +$5/sh room · net +$2,700✓ DEEPEST FREE · $915.00C Mar 31 '27 (173d) · +$130/sh room · net +$42.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
⏳ WAIT · advisory only · see fortress block above
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 12 '26 (3d) · Oct 13 '26 (4d) · Oct 14 '26 (5d) · Oct 15 '26 (6d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 19 '26 (10d) · Oct 20 '26 (11d) · Oct 21 '26 (12d) · Oct 22 '26 (13d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d) · Nov 30 '26 (52d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $785.00C · Oct 15 '26 · 6d · cap now $81,226 · spot $776
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~15% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 12× | $825.00C Nov 30 '26 · 52d ✓ CC-safe | $1.18 | 0.08 | 94% T:12% | +$366.00 | $72,540 | $122,782 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$238.70/mo of added tenor vs $4,500/mo run rate at trip: ~-$0.97/sh |
◆ SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 12× | $830.00C Nov 30 '26 · 52d ✓ CC-safe | $0.84 | 0.06 | 96% T:9% | $-42.00 | $72,132 | $127,523 | at trip: ~-$1.42/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $784.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $9.39/sh now → $6.64 mid-life (likely $8.00–$10.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,896 simulated challenges: the $784 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 21, at $787 (overshoots $2.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$784 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$1.97/sh | +$2,359 cycle +$8,683 [+$1,700…+$2,159] · 100% credit | 66% surv 51% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$795 | 30 Nov 2026 | 42d left | +$2.37/sh | +$2,843 cycle +$9,167 [+$1,182…+$2,253] · 97% credit | 74% surv 64% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$788 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.23/sh | +$273 cycle +$6,597 [-$576…-$51] · 22% credit | 70% surv 58% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$800 | 30 Nov 2026 | 42d left | +$0.20/sh | +$243 cycle +$6,567 [-$1,789…-$505] · 17% credit | 78% surv 71% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$819 | 30 Nov 2026 | 42d left | -$4.77/sh | -$5,720 cycle +$604 [-$9,092…-$6,979] | 90% surv 89% |
| budget: banked $6,324 debit $5,720 (90% used) → whole cycle still +$604 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $1,605/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $782.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $9.37/sh now → $6.62 mid-life (likely $8.50–$10.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 2,061 simulated challenges: the $782 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 21, at $785 (overshoots $2.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$782 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$2.04/sh | +$2,442 cycle +$9,846 [+$1,753…+$2,117] · 100% credit | 66% surv 51% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$793 | 30 Nov 2026 | 42d left | +$2.47/sh | +$2,967 cycle +$10,371 [+$1,215…+$2,124] · 97% credit | 74% surv 64% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$786 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.30/sh | +$358 cycle +$7,762 [-$513…-$60] · 21% credit | 70% surv 58% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$798 | 30 Nov 2026 | 42d left | +$0.30/sh | +$362 cycle +$7,766 [-$1,750…-$660] · 14% credit | 78% surv 70% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$817 | 30 Nov 2026 | 42d left | -$4.70/sh | -$5,640 cycle +$1,764 [-$9,142…-$7,304] | 90% surv 89% |
| budget: banked $7,404 debit $5,640 (76% used) → whole cycle still +$1,764 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $1,648/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $784C Oct 30 '26 (21d) +$5,322 65% T:70% flat +$77,496 · cap +$85,518 ✓ CC-safe | $782C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$3,492 65% T:70% flat +$75,666 · cap +$81,628 | $786C Nov 06 '26 (28d) +$6,804 66% T:69% flat +$78,978 · cap +$89,059 +0pp surv for +14d | $788C Nov 20 '26 (42d) +$9,822 65% T:71% flat +$81,996 · cap +$94,137 -1pp surv for +14d | $789C Nov 30 '26 (52d) +$11,040 65% T:71% flat +$83,214 · cap +$96,385 -0pp surv for +10d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $782C Oct 30 '26 (21d) +$6,396 62% T:78% flat +$78,570 · cap +$84,532 ✓ CC-safe | $779C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$5,148 58% T:85% flat +$77,322 · cap +$80,195 | $784C Nov 06 '26 (28d) +$7,884 63% T:75% flat +$80,058 · cap +$88,080 +5pp surv for +14d | = | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (386) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 19 '26 / Oct 20 '26 / Oct 21 '26 +8 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $785.00C · Oct 15 '26 · 6d · cap now $81,226 · spot $776
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~15% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 12× | $784.00C Oct 12 '26 · 3d ✓ CC-safe | $0.11 | 0.05 | 94% T:12% | $-912.00 | $71,262 | $79,284 | — |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 12× | $784.00C Oct 15 '26 · 6d ✓ CC-safe | $0.94 | 0.19 | 81% T:39% | +$72.00 | $72,246 | $80,268 | — |
ALL CANDIDATES (12) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 12 '26 / Oct 13 '26 / Oct 14 '26 +1 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 4 roll-down(s) at touch
40-50%
· up to $-108.00 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP CC EXPIRING WORTHLESS
SNDK · 1c · Neville:0865
⚠ EARNINGS · UPCOMING
2026-10-29 (Thu)
in 20 days
Any expiration on or after this date carries earnings-gap risk.
Consider further-OTM strikes or shorter expirations.
⏱ NEAR STRIKE · PRE-LOAD ROLL ORDER If it crosses $1,660.00: roll to the ROUTED pick: $2,350.00 Nov 27 '26 (49d) · at trip ~-$20.10/sh. Pre-load a conditional order in TWS at $1,660.00 now so it fires on nights you are not watching. A cross is a payday here: $4,166 at the cap.
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Roll early: only $75 of room past the strike (~0.7 typical days). One normal day can jump it, so roll on the approach, do not wait for the cross
ACT
before $1,660
on the approach · the window past the strike is too short
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤15d)
up to ~$1,845
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$1,735
$75 of room · ~0.7 typical days
$1,628.95 now
$1,660 strike
$1,735 free roll gone
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤15d): stock at $1,660 → up to $1,845 · stock at $1,685 → up to $1,795 · stock at $1,710 → up to $1,765 · above $1,735 → capped below the stock
Later expiries cross earnings and are not counted (never sell income into a print), so the longest free roll here is 14d.
MARKET
STOCK$1628.95Neville: 1centry ~$1636.00 · -0.4%
CURRENT CC$1,660.00Oct 09 '26 · 0d · mark 6.75 (6.10 / 7.40)
CC STATUSOTM 1.9%76% survT:49%hist 76%hist 44%0.70σ · extrinsic 6.75
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$1620.00+0.5% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$1622.91+0.4% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$869.50
CC BUYBACK-$675.00
CLOSE P/L$194.50
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$869.50
STOCK @ $1,660.00$4,166
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$6/pt+0.06δ/sh
CALLS NET 90D$3.6k/mokeep 96% · 3 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$1,200.00C / -$1,380.00P / +$810.00P / -$1,660.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
+12.95 (earlier legs realized +17.00/sh, already banked) = +12.95/sh
(+$1,295 on 1c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $1660.00 is 1.9% OTM with 0d left. Expiring worthless. Touch odds 49% before expiry. Next round: sell ~$1680.00 CC (~7.33/sh ≈ $733.00 for 1 ct). Confirm strike/premium in TWS. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $2172.86. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $1,720.00C Oct 16 '26 (7d) · +$60/sh room · net +$1,144✓ DEEPEST FREE · $3,190.00C Mar 19 '27 (161d) · +$1530/sh room · net +$2,524
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $1,660.00C · Oct 09 '26 · 0d · cap now $4,166 · spot $1,629
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
| ✓ ROUTED | roll to 1× | $2350.00C Nov 27 '26 · 49d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe mid capped $13.90 → $13.35 (above the lower strike) | $13.35 | 0.08 | 95% T:10% | +$660.00 | $1,530 | $78,075 | — |
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~18% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $2,210.00C Nov 27 '26 | roll to 1× | $1840.00C Oct 16 '26 · 7d ✓ CC-safe | $4.70 | 0.08 | 93% T:15% | $-205.00 | $664.50 | $23,069 | — |
◆ SAFER hist touch ~10% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 1× | $1890.00C Oct 16 '26 · 7d ✓ CC-safe | $2.85 | 0.05 | 96% T:9% | $-390.00 | $479.50 | $28,192 | — |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $1695.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $73.14/sh now → $51.73 mid-life (likely $63.01–$84.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $42.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,818 simulated challenges: the $1,695 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 14, at $1,724 (overshoots $28.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,695 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$29.85/sh | +$2,985 cycle +$7,215 [+$2,579…+$2,870] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | +$14,765 SAFE cap gain +$13,895 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,881 | 27 Nov 2026 | 42d left | +$13.50/sh | +$1,350 cycle +$5,580 [-$354…+$775] · 61% credit | 78% surv 73% | +$32,518 SAFE cap gain +$31,649 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,936 | 27 Nov 2026 | 42d left | +$0.00/sh | +$0 cycle +$4,230 [-$1,922…-$672] · 13% credit | 81% surv 77% | +$36,946 SAFE cap gain +$36,077 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,771 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$0.35/sh | +$35 cycle +$4,265 [-$862…-$266] · 12% credit | 74% surv 66% | +$19,845 SAFE cap gain +$18,975 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$2,126 | 20 Nov 2026 | 35d left | -$28.40/sh | -$2,840 cycle +$1,390 [-$5,197…-$3,660] · 0% credit | 90% surv 89% | +$54,025 SAFE cap gain +$53,155 |
| budget: banked $4,230 debit $2,840 (67% used) → whole cycle still +$1,390 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,000/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $1810.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $78.10/sh now → $55.24 mid-life (likely $50.86–$79.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $16.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$38.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 766 simulated challenges: the $1,810 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 14, at $1,841 (overshoots $30.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,810 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$28.06/sh | +$2,806 cycle +$4,476 [+$2,482…+$3,184] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$24,159 SAFE cap gain +$23,290 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,996 | 27 Nov 2026 | 42d left | +$11.76/sh | +$1,176 cycle +$2,846 [-$81…+$1,669] · 72% credit | 78% surv 72% | +$41,852 SAFE cap gain +$40,982 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$2,041 | 27 Nov 2026 | 42d left | +$0.45/sh | +$45 cycle +$1,715 [-$1,348…+$492] · 35% credit | 80% surv 76% | +$45,430 SAFE cap gain +$44,561 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,881 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$0.12/sh | +$12 cycle +$1,682 [-$732…+$128] · 30% credit | 73% surv 65% | +$28,837 SAFE cap gain +$27,968 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$2,121 | 20 Nov 2026 | 35d left | -$15.69/sh | -$1,569 cycle +$101 [-$3,106…-$1,233] · 9% credit | 85% surv 83% | +$52,215 SAFE cap gain +$51,345 |
| budget: banked $1,670 debit $1,569 (94% used) → whole cycle still +$101 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,390/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $1695C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$3,715 66% T:71% flat +$4,585 · cap +$11,596 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$23.74/sh | = ★ | $1720C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$7,335 65% T:74% flat +$8,205 · cap +$17,870 -1pp surv for +14d | $1730C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$9,280 65% T:75% flat +$10,150 · cap +$20,877 -0pp surv for +14d | $1735C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$9,605 65% T:76% flat +$10,475 · cap +$21,733 +0pp surv for +7d · +106% better outcome vs ≤20d · +35d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $1810C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$1,130 83% T:35% flat +$2,000 · cap +$21,219 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$8.22/sh | = ★ | $1950C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$2,310 85% T:32% flat +$3,180 · cap +$37,262 +2pp surv for +14d | $2030C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$2,835 86% T:29% flat +$3,705 · cap +$46,279 +1pp surv for +14d | $2050C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$2,965 87% T:28% flat +$3,835 · cap +$48,533 +0pp surv for +7d |
ALL CANDIDATES (474) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 +3 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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✓ SKIP CC OTM
GLD · 10c · Main:1299
MARKET
STOCK$384.24Main: 10centry ~$465.00 · -17.4%
CURRENT CC$409.00Dec 18 '26 · 70d · mark 6.50 (6.35 / 6.65)
CC STATUSOTM 6.4%76% survT:49%hist 76%hist 44%0.71σ · extrinsic 6.50
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$456.00-18.7% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$470.75-22.5% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-115,655
CC BUYBACK-$6,500
CLOSE P/L$-122,155
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-115,655
STOCK @ $409.00$-77,876
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$526/pt+0.53δ/sh
CC INC/MO$2,786
CALLS NET 90D$873/mokeep 94% · 4 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$320.00C / -$450.00P / +$330.00P / -$409.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
+3.22 (earlier legs realized +1.35, -0.09/sh, already banked) = +3.22/sh
(+$3,220 on 10c) ·
MIXED-BUILT · 3 rolls
since the last fresh write · credits and debits mixed; net shown
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $409.00 is 6.4% OTM. Safe. Earning $6.50/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-115,655 · at cap $-77,876. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $422.12. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $425.00C Feb 19 '27 (133d) · +$16/sh room · net +$1,710 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $451.00C Mar 31 '27 (173d) · +$42/sh room · net +$60.00 · under CC-SS
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 12 '26 (3d) · Oct 13 '26 (4d) · Oct 14 '26 (5d) · Oct 15 '26 (6d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 19 '26 (10d) · Oct 20 '26 (11d) · Oct 21 '26 (12d) · Oct 22 '26 (13d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d) · Dec 18 '26 (70d) · Dec 31 '26 (83d) · Jan 15 '27 (98d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $409.00C · Dec 18 '26 · 70d · cap now $-77,876 · spot $384
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~13% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 10× | $470.00C Jan 15 '27 · 98d ✓ CC-safe | $1.58 | 0.07 | 95% T:10% | $-4,925 | $-120,580 | $10,273 | at trip: ~-$6.92/sh |
◆ SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 10× | $475.00C Jan 15 '27 · 98d ✓ CC-safe | $1.41 | 0.07 | 96% T:9% | $-5,095 | $-120,750 | $17,732 | at trip: ~-$7.33/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $409.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 41 of 83); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $20.96/sh now → $14.83 mid-life (likely $14.97–$20.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,423 simulated challenges: the $409 strike is typically first touched on day 34 of 83, at $412 (overshoots $2.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$409 | 15 Jan 2027 | 56d left | -$0.42/sh | -$417 cycle +$7,133 [-$1,814…-$367] · 20% credit | 65% surv 52% | -$77,341 NOT cap gain +$38,314 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$435 | 15 Jan 2027 | 56d left | -$7.34/sh | -$7,338 cycle +$212 [-$8,899…-$7,623] | 79% surv 74% | -$47,920 NOT cap gain +$67,735 |
| budget: banked $7,550 debit $7,338 (97% used) → whole cycle still +$212 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,011/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $490.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 41 of 83); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $36.10/sh now → $25.54 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$24.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$490 | 15 Jan 2027 | 56d left | -$1.40/sh | -$1,398 cycle -$748 | 66% surv 53% | +$23,004 SAFE cap gain +$138,659 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$496 | 15 Jan 2027 | 56d left | -$0.02/sh | -$21 cycle +$629 | 69% surv 56% | +$31,428 SAFE cap gain +$147,083 |
| budget: banked $650 debit $21 (3% used) → whole cycle still +$629 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $13,672/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $413.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 41 of 83); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $21.62/sh now → $15.30 mid-life (likely $14.18–$20.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,269 simulated challenges: the $413 strike is typically first touched on day 39 of 83, at $416 (overshoots $2.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$413 | 15 Jan 2027 | 56d left | -$0.46/sh | -$458 cycle +$6,142 [-$1,758…+$27] · 26% credit | 65% surv 52% | -$72,576 NOT cap gain +$43,079 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$434 | 15 Jan 2027 | 56d left | -$6.13/sh | -$6,129 cycle +$471 [-$7,431…-$6,000] · 0% credit | 76% surv 70% | -$49,038 NOT cap gain +$66,617 |
| budget: banked $6,600 debit $6,129 (93% used) → whole cycle still +$471 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,910/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤98d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $409C Dec 31 '26 (83d) +$1,150 73% T:55% flat -$114,505 · cap -$76,726 ⚠ locks $76,299 if capped | — | — | — | $410C Jan 15 '27 (98d) +$2,400 73% T:57% flat -$113,255 · cap -$73,950 |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $490C Dec 31 '26 (83d) -$5,715 97% T:6% flat -$121,370 · cap +$39,999 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$8.39/sh | — | — | — | = ★ |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $413C Dec 31 '26 (83d) +$225.00 76% T:49% flat -$115,430 · cap -$71,548 ⚠ locks $71,499 if capped ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$5.26/sh | — | — | — | $420C Jan 15 '27 (98d) +$100.00 79% T:44% flat -$115,555 · cap -$60,992 |
ALL CANDIDATES (84) · Dec 31 '26 / Jan 15 '27 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $409.00C · Dec 18 '26 · 70d · cap now $-77,876 · spot $384
HARVEST Stock $384.24 fell below your $409.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 46 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $402.00 at +$1,900 (70% surv, T:61%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 10× | $407.00C Oct 23 '26 · 14d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-83,659 if capped) | $0.60 | 0.09 | 93% T:15% | $-5,895 | $-121,550 | $-86,823 | ⚠ locks in $83,659 ($83.66/sh) loss if capped |
◆ SAFER hist touch ~10% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 10× | $404.00C Oct 16 '26 · 7d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-87,935 if capped) | $0.25 | 0.05 | 95% T:9% | $-6,250 | $-121,905 | $-91,755 | ⚠ locks in $87,935 ($87.94/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 10× | $407.00C Nov 13 '26 · 35d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-81,937 if capped) | $3.12 | 0.22 | 82% T:38% | $-3,375 | $-119,030 | $-84,303 | ⚠ locks in $81,937 ($81.94/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (136) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 12 '26 / Oct 13 '26 / Oct 14 '26 +10 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 41 roll-down(s) at touch
40-50%
· up to $-158,760 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP CC OTM
DELL · 3c · Main:1299
MARKET
STOCK$585.53Main: 3centry ~$567.00 · +3.3%
CURRENT CC$650.00Oct 30 '26 · 21d · mark 10.78 (9.40 / 12.15)
CC STATUSOTM 11.0%79% survT:43%hist 76%hist 44%0.82σ · extrinsic 10.78
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$562.50+3.9% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$570.42+2.6% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$5,154
CC BUYBACK-$3,233
CLOSE P/L$1,922
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$5,154
STOCK @ $650.00$25,264
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$12/pt+0.04δ/sh
CC INC/MO$4,618
CALLS NET 90D$4.0k/mokeep 88% · 10 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$310.00C / -$400.00P / +$320.00P / -$650.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
+0.42 (earlier legs realized +7.00/sh, already banked) = +0.42/sh
(+$126.00 on 3c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $650.00 is 11.0% OTM. Safe. Earning $10.78/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $5,154 · at cap $25,264. Weekly gate: OVERBOUGHT. Reference Upper BB + 1σ (extension cap) at $639.90. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $690.00C Nov 20 '26 (42d) · +$40/sh room · net +$678.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $820.00C Jan 15 '27 (98d) · +$170/sh room · net +$1,826
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↩ RETURN HATCH · restart income, funded by the lineage
(+0.42/sh banked)
✓ SAFEST RESTART · $640.00C Oct 30 '26 (21d) · today +0.28/sh (worst fill -2.57) · after banked +0.70/sh · 76% surv
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $650.00C · Oct 30 '26 · 21d · cap now $25,264 · spot $586
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 3× | $770.00C Nov 20 '26 · 42d ✓ CC-safe | $4.75 | 0.09 | 93% T:15% | $-1,808 | $3,347 | $60,887 | at trip: ~-$9.12/sh |
◆ SAFER hist touch ~10% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 3× | $810.00C Nov 20 '26 · 42d ✓ CC-safe | $2.83 | 0.06 | 95% T:10% | $-2,385 | $2,769 | $72,786 | at trip: ~-$14.27/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $620.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 17 of 35); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $41.39/sh now → $29.29 mid-life (likely $36.32–$45.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $22.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,953 simulated challenges: the $620 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 35, at $631 (overshoots $11.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$634 | 27 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$3.55/sh | +$1,066 cycle +$7,906 [+$41…+$589] · 78% credit | 69% surv 59% | +$27,653 SAFE cap gain +$22,499 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$620 | 20 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$2.47/sh | +$741 cycle +$7,581 [-$74…+$381] · 66% credit | 66% surv 53% | +$22,828 SAFE cap gain +$17,674 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$639 | 27 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$1.63/sh | +$490 cycle +$7,330 [-$604…-$16] · 24% credit | 70% surv 60% | +$28,653 SAFE cap gain +$23,499 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$624 | 20 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.31/sh | +$92 cycle +$6,932 [-$817…-$325] · 15% credit | 67% surv 55% | +$23,586 SAFE cap gain +$18,432 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$754 | 27 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$22.71/sh | -$6,812 cycle +$28 [-$9,835…-$8,223] | 89% surv 88% | +$57,425 SAFE cap gain +$52,271 |
| budget: banked $6,840 debit $6,812 (100% used) → whole cycle still +$28 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $1,851/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $645.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 17 of 35); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $43.06/sh now → $30.47 mid-life (likely $33.35–$44.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $16.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$14.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,480 simulated challenges: the $645 strike is typically first touched on day 14 of 35, at $657 (overshoots $11.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$659 | 27 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$2.75/sh | +$825 cycle +$5,685 [-$158…+$722] · 62% credit | 69% surv 59% | +$33,304 SAFE cap gain +$28,150 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$645 | 20 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$1.57/sh | +$471 cycle +$5,331 [-$332…+$471] · 45% credit | 66% surv 53% | +$28,447 SAFE cap gain +$23,293 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$664 | 27 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.82/sh | +$247 cycle +$5,107 [-$814…+$97] · 27% credit | 70% surv 60% | +$34,299 SAFE cap gain +$29,145 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$719 | 27 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$14.83/sh | -$4,448 cycle +$412 [-$6,406…-$4,979] · 0% credit | 80% surv 76% | +$46,863 SAFE cap gain +$41,709 |
| budget: banked $4,860 debit $4,448 (92% used) → whole cycle still +$412 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $4,400/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $620C Nov 13 '26 (35d) +$4,170 66% T:73% flat +$9,324 · cap +$20,076 ✓ CC-safe | — | $620C Nov 06 '26 (28d) +$2,775 67% T:70% flat +$7,929 · cap +$18,681 | $620C Nov 20 '26 (42d) +$5,445 65% T:75% flat +$10,599 · cap +$21,351 -2pp surv for +14d | $625C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$7,162 66% T:75% flat +$12,317 · cap +$24,628 +0pp surv for +7d · +27% better outcome vs ≤20d · +14d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $645C Nov 13 '26 (35d) +$2,137 73% T:56% flat +$7,292 · cap +$25,841 ✓ CC-safe | — | $635C Nov 06 '26 (28d) +$1,665 72% T:59% flat +$6,819 · cap +$22,250 | $660C Nov 20 '26 (42d) +$2,318 76% T:51% flat +$7,472 · cap +$30,700 +4pp surv for +14d | $680C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$2,902 78% T:48% flat +$8,057 · cap +$37,524 +2pp surv for +7d |
ALL CANDIDATES (106) · Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 / Nov 20 '26 / Nov 27 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $650.00C · Oct 30 '26 · 21d · cap now $25,264 · spot $586
⚠ RE-STRIKE, NOT A HARVESTCurrent call is still live (delta 0.26, above the 0.20 harvest band): closing it costs $10.78/sh ($3,232 total). Every net credit below already nets that buyback; the price of the extra income is a LOWER cap.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 3× | $645.00C Oct 23 '26 · 14d ✓ CC-safe | $5.50 | 0.17 | 82% T:37% | $-1,582 | $3,572 | $22,121 | — |
ALL CANDIDATES (12) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 7 roll-down(s) at touch
40-50%
· up to $-9,174 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP CC OTM
COIN · 8c · Main:1299
⚠️
OPEN CC SPANS EARNINGS
2026-10-29 (Thu)
in 20 days
Your open $205.00 Nov 13 '26 CC is still live on the report date. Consider buying it back before 2026-10-29 to sidestep the gap, or confirm you want the exposure.
MARKET
STOCK$175.00Main: 8centry ~$211.00 · -17.1%
CURRENT CC$205.00Nov 13 '26 · 35d · mark 5.47 (3.75 / 7.20)
CC STATUSOTM 17.1%81% survT:41%hist 84%hist 44%0.86σ · extrinsic 5.47
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$210.90-20.5% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$215.35-23.1% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-37,688
CC BUYBACK-$4,380
CLOSE P/L$-42,068
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-37,688
STOCK @ $205.00$-8,532
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$172/pt+0.21δ/sh
CC INC/MO$3,754
CALLS NET 90D$6.2k/mokeep 74% · 20 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$165.00C / -$240.00P / +$90.00P / -$205.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
+1.08 (earlier legs realized +1.68/sh, already banked) = +1.08/sh
(+$864.00 on 8c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $205.00 is 17.1% OTM. Safe. Earning $5.47/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-37,688 · at cap $-8,532. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $200.03. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $230.00C Jan 15 '27 (98d) · +$25/sh room · net +$1,728✓ DEEPEST FREE · $280.00C Mar 19 '27 (161d) · +$75/sh room · net +$1,568
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $205.00C · Nov 13 '26 · 35d · cap now $-8,532 · spot $175
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $215C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn -$300.00 83% T:36% flat -$37,988 · cap +$886.01 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$4.15/sh | — | — | $220C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn -$1,420 87% T:28% flat -$39,108 · cap +$4,625 | = ★ |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $250C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn -$2,496 94% T:13% flat -$40,184 · cap +$32,705 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$5.02/sh | — | — | $240C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn -$2,744 93% T:16% flat -$40,432 · cap +$22,738 | = ★ |
ALL CANDIDATES (27) · Nov 20 '26 / Nov 27 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $205.00C · Nov 13 '26 · 35d · cap now $-8,532 · spot $175
HARVEST Stock $175.00 fell below your $205.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 12 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $192.50 at +$1,940 (71% surv, T:61%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~16% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 8× | $200.00C Oct 16 '26 · 7d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-13,821 if capped) | $0.46 | 0.07 | 93% T:13% | $-4,012 | $-41,700 | $-17,404 | ⚠ locks in $13,821 ($17.28/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 8× | $200.00C Oct 30 '26 · 21d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-11,773 if capped) | $3.27 | 0.22 | 82% T:38% | $-1,760 | $-39,448 | $-15,152 | ⚠ locks in $11,773 ($14.72/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (12) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 8 roll-down(s) at touch
40-50%
· up to $-8,668 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP CC OTM
INTC · 5c · Neville:0865
⚠ EARNINGS · UPCOMING
2026-10-29 (Thu)
in 20 days
Any expiration on or after this date carries earnings-gap risk.
Consider further-OTM strikes or shorter expirations.
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Roll early: only $2.50 of room past the strike (~0.6 typical days). One normal day can jump it, so roll on the approach, do not wait for the cross
ACT
before $114
on the approach · the window past the strike is too short
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤15d)
up to ~$118
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$116.50
$2.50 of room · ~0.6 typical days
$107.34 now
$114 strike
$116.50 free roll gone
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤15d): stock at $114 → up to $118 · stock at $115 → up to $118 · stock at $116 → up to $117 · above $116.50 → capped below the stock
Later expiries cross earnings and are not counted (never sell income into a print), so the longest free roll here is 14d.
Your current call already sits under the CC-safe floor $115.59, so rolls are not held to it: any higher strike is an improvement.
MARKET
STOCK$107.34Neville: 5centry ~$116.50 · -7.9%
CURRENT CC$114.00Oct 14 '26 · 5d · mark 0.85 (0.78 / 0.93)
CC STATUSOTM 6.2%82% survT:36%hist 84%hist 37%0.92σ · extrinsic 0.85
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$114.00-6.2% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$115.44-7.6% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-4,333
CC BUYBACK-$427.50
CLOSE P/L$-4,760
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-4,333
STOCK @ $114.00$-701.23
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$45/pt+0.09δ/sh
CC INC/MO$2,565
CALLS NET 90D$930/mokeep 66% · 7 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$85.00C / -$100.00P / +$35.00P / -$114.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
-1.44 (earlier legs realized +0.75/sh, already banked) = -1.44/sh
(-$720.00 on 5c) ·
DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · room was BOUGHT; a paid roll sits in the chain
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $114.00 is 6.2% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.85/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-4,333 · at cap $-701.23. Next round in 5d: sell ~$111.00 (~0.48/sh). Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $134.38. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $118.00C Oct 30 '26 (21d) · +$4/sh room · net +$1,252✓ DEEPEST FREE · $145.00C Nov 13 '26 (35d) · +$31/sh room · net +$77.50
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 12 '26 (3d) · Oct 14 '26 (5d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $114.00C · Oct 14 '26 · 5d · cap now $-701.23 · spot $107
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $150.00C Nov 27 '26 | roll to 5× | $126.00C Oct 23 '26 · 14d ✓ CC-safe mid capped $0.53 → $0.50 (above the lower strike) | $0.50 | 0.09 | 93% T:15% | $-177.50 | $-4,510 | $5,664 | at trip: ~-$0.48/sh |
◆ SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 5× | $131.00C Oct 23 '26 · 14d ✓ CC-safe | $0.30 | 0.06 | 96% T:9% | $-277.50 | $-4,610 | $8,290 | at trip: ~-$1.05/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $114.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.53/sh now → $5.33 mid-life (likely $6.55–$8.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,752 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 21, at $116 (overshoots $2.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$114 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.90/sh | +$448 cycle +$2,648 [+$170…+$374] · 99% credit | 67% surv 53% | +$1,792 SAFE cap gain +$6,125 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$118 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$1.21/sh | +$606 cycle +$2,806 [-$32…+$387] · 72% credit | 71% surv 60% | +$3,855 SAFE cap gain +$8,188 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$116 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$72 cycle +$2,272 [-$250…-$48] · 21% credit | 69% surv 57% | +$2,309 SAFE cap gain +$6,642 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$121 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.22/sh | +$109 cycle +$2,309 [-$587…-$153] · 18% credit | 74% surv 65% | +$4,969 SAFE cap gain +$9,302 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$142 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$3.92/sh | -$1,962 cycle +$238 [-$3,065…-$2,410] | 90% surv 89% | +$14,099 SAFE cap gain +$18,432 |
| budget: banked $2,200 debit $1,962 (89% used) → whole cycle still +$238 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $657/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $115.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 21 of 42); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $9.96/sh now → $7.05 mid-life (likely $8.51–$10.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,951 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 12 of 42, at $117 (overshoots $2.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$115 | 27 Nov 2026 | 28d left | +$0.49/sh | +$245 cycle +$3,320 [-$62…+$134] · 52% credit | 68% surv 53% | +$2,754 SAFE cap gain +$7,087 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$115 | 27 Nov 2026 | 28d left | +$0.15/sh | +$74 cycle +$3,149 [-$277…-$56] · 20% credit | 67% surv 53% | +$2,767 SAFE cap gain +$7,099 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$143 | 27 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$5.99/sh | -$2,994 cycle +$81 [-$4,119…-$3,474] | 92% surv 91% | +$14,457 SAFE cap gain +$18,789 |
| budget: banked $3,075 debit $2,994 (97% used) → whole cycle still +$81 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $569/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $121.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.99/sh now → $5.65 mid-life (likely $5.78–$8.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,081 simulated challenges: the $121 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 21, at $123 (overshoots $2.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$121 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.68/sh | +$338 cycle +$1,663 [+$100…+$458] · 95% credit | 67% surv 53% | +$4,565 SAFE cap gain +$8,898 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$125 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.99/sh | +$497 cycle +$1,822 [-$32…+$621] · 72% credit | 71% surv 60% | +$6,625 SAFE cap gain +$10,958 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$122 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.37/sh | +$187 cycle +$1,512 [-$67…+$285] · 60% credit | 68% surv 54% | +$4,768 SAFE cap gain +$9,100 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$127 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.29/sh | +$147 cycle +$1,472 [-$418…+$240] · 38% credit | 72% surv 63% | +$7,345 SAFE cap gain +$11,678 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$140 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | -$2.52/sh | -$1,262 cycle +$63 [-$2,024…-$1,289] · 2% credit | 84% surv 80% | +$12,851 SAFE cap gain +$17,184 |
| budget: banked $1,325 debit $1,262 (95% used) → whole cycle still +$63 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,235/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $148.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $9.77/sh now → $6.91 mid-life (likely $3.96–$7.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 92 simulated challenges: the $148 strike is typically first touched on day 17 of 21, at $151 (overshoots $3.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$151 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.08/sh | +$38 cycle +$213 [+$215…+$1,347] · 86% credit | 70% surv 58% | +$18,820 SAFE cap gain +$23,152 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$148 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$0.46/sh | -$232 cycle -$57 [-$1…+$790] · 74% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$17,178 SAFE cap gain +$21,511 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$152 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | -$0.26/sh | -$128 cycle +$47 [-$18…+$1,226] · 73% credit | 70% surv 59% | +$19,167 SAFE cap gain +$23,500 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $135.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.91/sh now → $6.31 mid-life (likely $4.96–$7.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 342 simulated challenges: the $135 strike is typically first touched on day 14 of 21, at $138 (overshoots $2.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$135 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.14/sh | +$72 cycle +$487 [+$32…+$596] · 79% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$10,852 SAFE cap gain +$15,184 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$139 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.43/sh | +$213 cycle +$628 [-$2…+$874] · 74% credit | 70% surv 60% | +$12,886 SAFE cap gain +$17,219 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$140 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.07/sh | +$37 cycle +$452 [-$201…+$683] · 64% credit | 71% surv 61% | +$13,240 SAFE cap gain +$17,572 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$142 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | -$0.58/sh | -$290 cycle +$125 [-$563…+$336] · 41% credit | 73% surv 65% | +$13,972 SAFE cap gain +$18,304 |
| budget: banked $415 debit $290 (70% used) → whole cycle still +$125 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,261/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $114C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn +$1,810 67% T:70% flat -$2,523 · cap +$1,109 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe | $114C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$670.00 73% T:56% flat -$3,663 · cap -$31.23 | $114C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$2,172 66% T:72% flat -$2,160 · cap +$1,471 -7pp surv for +14d | $115C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$2,685 67% T:72% flat -$1,648 · cap +$2,529 +0pp surv for +14d · +81% better outcome vs ≤20d · +21d | = |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $121C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn +$930.00 79% T:45% flat -$3,403 · cap +$4,045 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$2.92/sh | $117C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$345.00 80% T:42% flat -$3,988 · cap +$1,279 | $123C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$1,068 79% T:44% flat -$3,265 · cap +$5,273 -1pp surv for +14d | $129C Nov 13 '26 (35d) ⚠ earn +$822.50 84% T:33% flat -$3,510 · cap +$8,300 +5pp surv for +7d | $135C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$847.50 86% T:30% flat -$3,485 · cap +$11,596 +2pp surv for +14d · +7pp surv vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $148C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn -$232.50 97% T:7% flat -$4,565 · cap +$17,604 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$1.12/sh | $132C Oct 23 '26 (14d) -$292.50 96% T:8% flat -$4,625 · cap +$8,821 | = ★ | $165C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn -$155.00 97% T:6% flat -$4,488 · cap +$26,951 -1pp touch for +21d | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $135C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn +$5.00 92% T:17% flat -$4,328 · cap +$10,754 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$0.01/sh | $118C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$252.50 82% T:37% flat -$4,080 · cap +$1,732 | = ★ | $150C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$102.50 94% T:13% flat -$4,230 · cap +$19,030 cap +$15 for +21d | $155C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$95.00 95% T:11% flat -$4,238 · cap +$21,748 cap +$5 for +7d |
ALL CANDIDATES (160) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 +3 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $114.00C · Oct 14 '26 · 5d · cap now $-701.23 · spot $107
⚠ RE-STRIKE, NOT A HARVESTCurrent call is still live (delta 0.20, above the 0.20 harvest band): closing it costs $0.85/sh ($428 total). Every net credit below already nets that buyback; the price of the extra income is a LOWER cap.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 5× | $111.00C Oct 12 '26 · 3d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-2,163 if capped) | $0.43 | 0.11 | 82% T:37% | $-212.50 | $-4,545 | $-2,549 | ⚠ locks in $2,163 ($4.33/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (3) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 12 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 3 roll-down(s) at touch
40-50%
· up to $-250.00 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP CC OTM
MSTR · 10c · Joint:1782BBC
LEAPS-ONLY
⚠️
OPEN CC SPANS EARNINGS
2026-10-29 (Thu)
in 20 days
Your open $200.00 Jan 15 '27 CC is still live on the report date. Consider buying it back before 2026-10-29 to sidestep the gap, or confirm you want the exposure.
MARKET
STOCK$153.52Joint: 10centry ~$395.00 · -61.1%
CURRENT CC$200.00Jan 15 '27 · 98d · mark 8.55 (8.15 / 8.95)
CC STATUSOTM 30.3%82% survT:39%hist 84%hist 37%0.93σ · extrinsic 8.55
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$233.00-51.8% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$183.54-19.6% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-12,375
CC BUYBACK-$8,550
CLOSE P/L$-20,925
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-12,375
STOCK @ $200.00$15,388
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.60
CC INC/MO$2,617
CALLS NET 90D$1.5k/mokeep 91% · 11 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$180.00C / -$200.00CLEAPS-only · LC / CC
CC LINEAGE
+0.15 (earlier legs realized +0.83/sh, already banked) = +0.15/sh
(+$150.00 on 10c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $200.00 is 30.3% OTM. Safe. Earning $8.55/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-12,375 · at cap $15,388. Weekly gate: EXTENDED. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $171.88. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $220.00C Mar 19 '27 (161d) · +$20/sh room · net +$1,835✓ DEEPEST FREE · $230.00C Mar 19 '27 (161d) · +$30/sh room · net +$535.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL-DOWN ONLY
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d) · Dec 18 '26 (70d) · Jan 15 '27 (98d)
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $200.00C · Jan 15 '27 · 98d · cap now $15,388 · spot $154
HARVEST Stock $153.52 fell below your $200.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 19 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $175.00 at +$4,525 (71% surv, T:65%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $195.00C Oct 30 '26 | roll down to 10× | $185.00C Oct 23 '26 · 14d ✓ CC-safe | $0.82 | 0.09 | 92% T:16% | $-7,725 | $-20,100 | $-1,297 | — |
◆ SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 10× | $195.00C Oct 23 '26 · 14d ✓ CC-safe | $0.47 | 0.05 | 96% T:9% | $-8,080 | $-20,455 | $4,321 | — |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 10× | $195.00C Dec 18 '26 · 70d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe | $5.97 | 0.26 | 83% T:38% | $-2,575 | $-14,950 | $9,826 | — |
ALL CANDIDATES (40) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 +5 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 16 roll-down(s) at touch
40-50%
· up to $-54,515 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP CC OTM
COIN · 25c · Main:1299BBC
⚠ EARNINGS · UPCOMING
2026-10-29 (Thu)
in 20 days
Any expiration on or after this date carries earnings-gap risk.
Consider further-OTM strikes or shorter expirations.
MARKET
STOCK$175.00Main: 25centry ~$330.00 · -47.0%
CURRENT CC$200.00Oct 23 '26 · 14d · mark 1.58 (1.35 / 1.80)
CC STATUSOTM 14.3%88% survT:25%hist 84%hist 30%1.17σ · extrinsic 1.58
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$563.00-221.7% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$381.41-117.9% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-203,250
CC BUYBACK-$3,938
CLOSE P/L$-207,188
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-203,250
STOCK @ $200.00$-189,315
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.22
CC INC/MO$8,438
CALLS NET 90D$6.2k/mokeep 74% · 20 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$500.00C / -$330.00P / +$300.00P / -$200.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
+2.68 (earlier legs realized +1.68/sh, already banked) = +2.68/sh
(+$6,700 on 25c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $200.00 is 14.3% OTM. Safe. Earning $1.58/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-203,250 · at cap $-189,315. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $200.03. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $207.50C Oct 30 '26 (21d) · +$8/sh room · net +$1,875 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $270.00C Mar 19 '27 (161d) · +$70/sh room · net +$17,150 · under CC-SS
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d)
⚠ No roll is CC-safe — the CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so a cap anywhere locks a from-entry loss if assigned. That loss is already locked by the current CC, so recommendations below rank roll-ups against the current cap instead (every strike up improves P/L @ CAP — see CAP GAIN). All rows tagged ✕CC-safe for reference.
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $200.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 14d · cap now $-189,315 · spot $175
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $200C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$7,688 79% T:44% flat -$195,563 · cap -$181,627 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ⚠ locks $180,961 if capped | — | = ★ | $200C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$13,000 76% T:51% flat -$190,250 · cap -$176,315 -3pp surv for +14d | $200C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$14,938 75% T:55% flat -$188,313 · cap -$174,377 -2pp surv for +7d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $212.5C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$4,775 86% T:29% flat -$198,475 · cap -$177,572 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ⚠ locks $175,789 if capped at trip: ~+$3.84/sh | — | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $255C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn -$2,188 97% T:7% flat -$205,438 · cap -$160,845 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ⚠ locks $149,463 if capped at trip: ~-$3.45/sh | — | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $225C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$987.50 91% T:19% flat -$202,263 · cap -$174,392 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ⚠ locks $170,707 if capped ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$0.68/sh | — | = ★ | $240C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$1,175 93% T:16% flat -$202,075 · cap -$165,843 cap +$15 for +14d | $250C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$1,950 94% T:13% flat -$201,300 · cap -$159,494 cap +$10 for +7d |
CANDIDATES (18 of 90) · Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 20 '26 / Nov 27 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $200.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 14d · cap now $-189,315 · spot $175
HARVEST Stock $175.00 fell below your $200.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 4 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $185.00 at +$5,438 (72% surv, T:59%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
| ▶ ● BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 25× | $192.50C Oct 23 '26 · 14d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-189,310 if capped) | $2.35 | 0.06 | 81% T:38% | +$1,937 | $-201,313 | $-191,558 | ⚠ locks in $189,310 ($75.72/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (7) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 2 roll-down(s) at touch
40-50%
· up to $3,762 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE |
NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
● $190.00 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-189,820 if capped) | Oct 23 '26 · 14d | $2,863 | 79% | 44% |
$185.00 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-193,759 if capped) | Oct 16 '26 · 7d | $900.00 | 77% | 48% |
✓ SKIP CC OTM
IREN · 20c · Main:1299
⚠️
OPEN CC SPANS EARNINGS
2026-11-05 (Thu)
in 27 days
Your open $49.00 Nov 20 '26 CC is still live on the report date. Consider buying it back before 2026-11-05 to sidestep the gap, or confirm you want the exposure.
MARKET
STOCK$35.95Main: 20centry ~$45.00 · -20.1%
CURRENT CC$49.00Nov 20 '26 · 42d · mark 0.92 (0.86 / 0.98)
CC STATUSOTM 36.3%89% survT:24%hist 84%hist 30%1.22σ · extrinsic 0.92
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$44.00-22.4% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$49.20-36.8% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-23,800
CC BUYBACK-$1,840
CLOSE P/L$-25,640
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-23,800
STOCK @ $49.00$-1,077
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.87
CC INC/MO$1,314
CALLS NET 90D$1.7k/mokeep 17% · 39 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$25.00C / -$47.00P / +$35.00P / -$49.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
+0.18 (earlier legs realized -0.47/sh, already banked) = +0.18/sh
(+$360.00 on 20c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $49.00 is 36.3% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.92/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-23,800 · at cap $-1,077. Weekly gate: PULLBACK. Reference 20W MA (bounce target) at $44.56. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $55.00C Dec 18 '26 (70d) · +$6/sh room · net +$10.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $65.00C Feb 19 '27 (133d) · +$16/sh room · net +$930.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d) · Dec 18 '26 (70d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $49.00C · Nov 20 '26 · 42d · cap now $-1,077 · spot $35.95
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $49.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 24 of 49); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.58/sh now → $4.66 mid-life (likely $3.68–$5.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 643 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 29 of 49, at $50 (overshoots $1.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$49 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | +$0.94/sh | +$1,889 cycle +$3,549 [+$1,445…+$3,024] · 100% credit | 69% surv 57% | +$2,116 SAFE cap gain +$25,916 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$52 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | +$0.34/sh | +$680 cycle +$2,340 [+$291…+$1,610] · 94% credit | 73% surv 64% | +$7,965 SAFE cap gain +$31,765 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$53 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | +$0.01/sh | +$29 cycle +$1,689 [-$396…+$936] · 52% credit | 74% surv 66% | +$9,635 SAFE cap gain +$33,435 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$53 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | +$0.01/sh | +$29 cycle +$1,689 [-$396…+$936] · 52% credit | 74% surv 66% | +$9,635 SAFE cap gain +$33,435 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$56 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | -$0.82/sh | -$1,645 cycle +$15 [-$2,193…-$806] · 12% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$14,926 SAFE cap gain +$38,726 |
| budget: banked $1,660 debit $1,645 (99% used) → whole cycle still +$15 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $5,009/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $65.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 24 of 49); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.72/sh now → $7.61 mid-life (likely $4.00–$7.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 62 simulated challenges: the $65 strike is typically first touched on day 39 of 49, at $67 (overshoots $1.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$65 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | +$1.51/sh | +$3,022 cycle +$3,442 [+$4,080…+$7,336] · 100% credit | 70% surv 58% | +$38,935 SAFE cap gain +$62,735 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$71 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | +$0.27/sh | +$550 cycle +$970 [+$1,197…+$4,178] · 98% credit | 75% surv 66% | +$50,139 SAFE cap gain +$73,939 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$71 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | +$0.27/sh | +$550 cycle +$970 [+$1,197…+$4,178] · 98% credit | 75% surv 66% | +$50,139 SAFE cap gain +$73,939 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$74 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | -$0.58/sh | -$1,161 cycle -$741 [-$695…+$2,353] · 71% credit | 77% surv 70% | +$55,139 SAFE cap gain +$78,939 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤70d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $49C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn $0 88% T:26% flat -$23,800 · cap -$1,077 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 05 ✓ CC-safe | — | — | — | $49C Dec 18 '26 (70d) ⚠ earn +$1,130 85% T:33% flat -$22,670 · cap +$53.29 |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $65C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn -$1,300 97% T:6% flat -$25,100 · cap +$25,483 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 05 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$1.82/sh | — | — | — | $75C Dec 18 '26 (70d) ⚠ earn -$1,270 98% T:5% flat -$25,070 · cap +$42,926 |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $49C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn $0 88% T:26% flat -$23,800 · cap -$1,077 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 05 ✓ CC-safe | — | — | — | $55C Dec 18 '26 (70d) ⚠ earn +$40.00 91% T:20% flat -$23,760 · cap +$9,411 |
ALL CANDIDATES (37) · Nov 27 '26 / Dec 18 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $49.00C · Nov 20 '26 · 42d · cap now $-1,077 · spot $35.95
HARVEST Stock $35.95 fell below your $49.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 13 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $40.00 at +$2,810 (70% surv, T:66%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~17% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 20× | $47.00C Oct 30 '26 · 21d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-3,358 if capped) | $0.22 | 0.08 | 93% T:14% | $-1,400 | $-25,200 | $-5,959 | ⚠ locks in $3,358 ($1.68/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 20× | $45.00C Nov 20 '26 · 42d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 05 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-6,438 if capped) | $1.28 | 0.25 | 83% T:38% | +$720.00 | $-23,080 | $-7,322 | ⚠ locks in $6,438 ($3.22/sh) loss if capped |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 20× | $44.00C Nov 13 '26 · 35d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 05 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-8,200 if capped) | $1.25 | 0.25 | 82% T:39% | +$650.00 | $-23,150 | $-9,133 | ⚠ locks in $8,200 ($4.10/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (42) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 +3 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 9 roll-down(s) at touch
40-50%
· up to $1,560 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP CC OTM
IREN · 20c · Joint:1782
⚠️
OPEN CC SPANS EARNINGS
2026-11-05 (Thu)
in 27 days
Your open $49.00 Nov 20 '26 CC is still live on the report date. Consider buying it back before 2026-11-05 to sidestep the gap, or confirm you want the exposure.
MARKET
STOCK$35.95Joint: 20centry ~$45.00 · -20.1%
CURRENT CC$49.00Nov 20 '26 · 42d · mark 0.92 (0.86 / 0.98)
CC STATUSOTM 36.3%89% survT:24%hist 84%hist 30%1.22σ · extrinsic 0.92
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$44.00-22.4% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$49.20-36.8% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-23,800
CC BUYBACK-$1,840
CLOSE P/L$-25,640
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-23,800
STOCK @ $49.00$-1,077
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.87
CC INC/MO$1,314
CALLS NET 90D$1.7k/mokeep 17% · 39 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$25.00C / -$47.00P / +$35.00P / -$49.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
+0.18 (earlier legs realized -0.47/sh, already banked) = +0.18/sh
(+$360.00 on 20c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $49.00 is 36.3% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.92/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-23,800 · at cap $-1,077. Weekly gate: PULLBACK. Reference 20W MA (bounce target) at $44.56. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $55.00C Dec 18 '26 (70d) · +$6/sh room · net +$10.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $65.00C Feb 19 '27 (133d) · +$16/sh room · net +$930.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d) · Dec 18 '26 (70d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $49.00C · Nov 20 '26 · 42d · cap now $-1,077 · spot $35.95
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $49.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 24 of 49); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.58/sh now → $4.66 mid-life (likely $3.68–$5.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 643 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 29 of 49, at $50 (overshoots $1.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$49 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | +$0.94/sh | +$1,889 cycle +$3,549 [+$1,445…+$3,024] · 100% credit | 69% surv 57% | +$2,116 SAFE cap gain +$25,916 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$52 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | +$0.34/sh | +$680 cycle +$2,340 [+$291…+$1,610] · 94% credit | 73% surv 64% | +$7,965 SAFE cap gain +$31,765 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$53 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | +$0.01/sh | +$29 cycle +$1,689 [-$396…+$936] · 52% credit | 74% surv 66% | +$9,635 SAFE cap gain +$33,435 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$53 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | +$0.01/sh | +$29 cycle +$1,689 [-$396…+$936] · 52% credit | 74% surv 66% | +$9,635 SAFE cap gain +$33,435 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$56 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | -$0.82/sh | -$1,645 cycle +$15 [-$2,193…-$806] · 12% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$14,926 SAFE cap gain +$38,726 |
| budget: banked $1,660 debit $1,645 (99% used) → whole cycle still +$15 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $5,009/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $65.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 24 of 49); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.72/sh now → $7.61 mid-life (likely $4.00–$7.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 62 simulated challenges: the $65 strike is typically first touched on day 39 of 49, at $67 (overshoots $1.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$65 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | +$1.51/sh | +$3,022 cycle +$3,442 [+$4,080…+$7,336] · 100% credit | 70% surv 58% | +$38,935 SAFE cap gain +$62,735 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$71 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | +$0.27/sh | +$550 cycle +$970 [+$1,197…+$4,178] · 98% credit | 75% surv 66% | +$50,139 SAFE cap gain +$73,939 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$71 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | +$0.27/sh | +$550 cycle +$970 [+$1,197…+$4,178] · 98% credit | 75% surv 66% | +$50,139 SAFE cap gain +$73,939 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$74 | 18 Dec 2026 | 46d left | -$0.58/sh | -$1,161 cycle -$741 [-$695…+$2,353] · 71% credit | 77% surv 70% | +$55,139 SAFE cap gain +$78,939 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤70d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $49C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn $0 88% T:26% flat -$23,800 · cap -$1,077 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 05 ✓ CC-safe | — | — | — | $49C Dec 18 '26 (70d) ⚠ earn +$1,130 85% T:33% flat -$22,670 · cap +$53.29 |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $65C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn -$1,300 97% T:6% flat -$25,100 · cap +$25,483 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 05 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$1.82/sh | — | — | — | $75C Dec 18 '26 (70d) ⚠ earn -$1,270 98% T:5% flat -$25,070 · cap +$42,926 |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $49C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn $0 88% T:26% flat -$23,800 · cap -$1,077 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 05 ✓ CC-safe | — | — | — | $55C Dec 18 '26 (70d) ⚠ earn +$40.00 91% T:20% flat -$23,760 · cap +$9,411 |
ALL CANDIDATES (37) · Nov 27 '26 / Dec 18 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $49.00C · Nov 20 '26 · 42d · cap now $-1,077 · spot $35.95
HARVEST Stock $35.95 fell below your $49.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 13 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $40.00 at +$2,810 (70% surv, T:66%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~17% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 20× | $47.00C Oct 30 '26 · 21d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-3,358 if capped) | $0.22 | 0.08 | 93% T:14% | $-1,400 | $-25,200 | $-5,959 | ⚠ locks in $3,358 ($1.68/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 20× | $45.00C Nov 20 '26 · 42d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 05 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-6,438 if capped) | $1.28 | 0.25 | 83% T:38% | +$720.00 | $-23,080 | $-7,322 | ⚠ locks in $6,438 ($3.22/sh) loss if capped |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 20× | $44.00C Nov 13 '26 · 35d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 05 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-8,200 if capped) | $1.25 | 0.25 | 82% T:39% | +$650.00 | $-23,150 | $-9,133 | ⚠ locks in $8,200 ($4.10/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (42) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 +3 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 9 roll-down(s) at touch
40-50%
· up to $1,560 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP CC OTM
HIMS · 15c · Main:1299
MARKET
STOCK$28.50Main: 15centry ~$20.00 · +42.5%
CURRENT CC$32.50Oct 16 '26 · 7d · mark 0.15 (0.10 / 0.20)
CC STATUSOTM 14.0%90% survT:20%hist 95%hist 18%1.30σ · extrinsic 0.15
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$17.47+38.7% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$18.82+34.0% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$16,778
CC BUYBACK-$225.00
CLOSE P/L$16,553
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$16,778
STOCK @ $32.50$23,543
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$191/pt+0.13δ/sh
CC INC/MO$964.29
CALLS NET 90D$1.2k/mokeep 85% · 8 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$10.00C / -$20.00P / +$5.00P / -$32.50CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $32.50 is 14.0% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.15/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $16,778 · at cap $23,543. Next round in 7d: sell ~$29.50 (~0.13/sh). Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $36.50. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $34.00C Oct 23 '26 (14d) · +$2/sh room · net +$315.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $46.00C Feb 19 '27 (133d) · +$14/sh room · net +$2,017
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $32.50C · Oct 16 '26 · 7d · cap now $23,543 · spot $28.50
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~13% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $42.00C Nov 20 '26 | roll to 15× | $40.00C Nov 06 '26 · 28d ✓ CC-safe | $0.34 | 0.10 | 95% T:10% | +$292.50 | $17,070 | $36,521 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$417.86/mo of added tenor vs $964.29/mo run rate at trip: ~-$0.16/sh |
◆ SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 15× | $37.00C Oct 23 '26 · 14d ✓ CC-safe | $0.14 | 0.08 | 96% T:9% | $-22.50 | $16,755 | $31,132 | at trip: ~-$0.27/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $30.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.42/sh now → $1.71 mid-life (likely $2.14–$2.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,881 simulated challenges: the $30 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 21, at $31 (overshoots $0.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$32 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.62/sh | +$932 cycle +$3,062 [+$403…+$709] · 96% credit | 74% surv 63% | +$24,981 SAFE cap gain +$8,204 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$34 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.02/sh | +$29 cycle +$2,159 [-$753…-$298] · 12% credit | 78% surv 71% | +$27,420 SAFE cap gain +$10,643 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$30 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$0.23/sh | -$350 cycle +$1,780 [-$1,014…-$627] · 6% credit | 65% surv 53% | +$21,149 SAFE cap gain +$4,371 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$40 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$1.12/sh | -$1,685 cycle +$445 [-$2,727…-$2,121] | 90% surv 89% | +$35,463 SAFE cap gain +$18,685 |
| budget: banked $2,130 debit $1,685 (79% used) → whole cycle still +$445 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $828/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $34.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.74/sh now → $1.94 mid-life (likely $1.68–$2.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 586 simulated challenges: the $34 strike is typically first touched on day 13 of 21, at $35 (overshoots $0.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$36 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.24/sh | +$365 cycle +$1,010 [-$97…+$679] · 68% credit | 75% surv 66% | +$31,192 SAFE cap gain +$14,414 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$36 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.18/sh | +$276 cycle +$921 [-$118…+$528] · 65% credit | 76% surv 67% | +$31,076 SAFE cap gain +$14,299 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$0.40/sh | -$602 cycle +$43 [-$1,021…-$296] · 16% credit | 65% surv 53% | +$26,054 SAFE cap gain +$9,277 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$38 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$0.41/sh | -$616 cycle +$29 [-$1,129…-$414] · 15% credit | 80% surv 75% | +$33,431 SAFE cap gain +$16,653 |
| budget: banked $645 debit $616 (96% used) → whole cycle still +$29 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $2,151/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $30C Oct 30 '26 (21d) +$2,032 66% T:73% flat +$18,810 · cap +$21,347 ✓ CC-safe | $30C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$1,523 68% T:67% flat +$18,300 · cap +$20,837 | $31C Nov 06 '26 (28d) +$2,100 70% T:65% flat +$18,878 · cap +$23,106 +2pp surv for +14d | $31C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$3,465 67% T:72% flat +$20,243 · cap +$24,471 -3pp surv for +14d | $31C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$3,900 67% T:74% flat +$20,678 · cap +$24,906 -0pp surv for +7d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $34C Oct 30 '26 (21d) +$712.50 87% T:27% flat +$17,490 · cap +$26,793 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$0.68/sh | $32.5C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$562.50 85% T:31% flat +$17,340 · cap +$24,106 | = ★ | $38C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$1,170 87% T:28% flat +$17,948 · cap +$34,016 +0pp surv for +21d | $37C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$1,388 85% T:32% flat +$18,165 · cap +$32,542 -2pp surv for +0d |
ALL CANDIDATES (70) · Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +2 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $32.50C · Oct 16 '26 · 7d · cap now $23,543 · spot $28.50
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~13% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 15× | $30.00C Oct 09 '26 · 0d ✓ CC-safe | $0.10 | 0.15 | 95% T:10% | $-82.50 | $16,695 | $19,232 | — |
| ▶ ● BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 15× | $31.00C Oct 16 '26 · 7d ✓ CC-safe | $0.47 | 0.27 | 82% T:37% | +$480.00 | $17,258 | $21,486 | — |
ALL CANDIDATES (7) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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✓ SKIP CC OTM
HOOD · 10c · Joint:1782
⚠ EARNINGS · UPCOMING
2026-10-27 (Tue)
in 18 days
Any expiration on or after this date carries earnings-gap risk.
Consider further-OTM strikes or shorter expirations.
MARKET
STOCK$108.44Joint: 10centry ~$119.00 · -8.9%
CURRENT CC$120.00Oct 16 '26 · 7d · mark 0.42 (0.40 / 0.44)
CC STATUSOTM 10.7%91% survT:18%hist 95%hist 18%1.34σ · extrinsic 0.42
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$114.95-6.0% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$119.84-10.5% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-11,260
CC BUYBACK-$420.00
CLOSE P/L$-11,680
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-11,260
STOCK @ $120.00$271.71
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 1.00
CC INC/MO$1,800
CALLS NET 90D$1.9k/mokeep 95% · 4 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$65.00C / -$95.00P / +$80.00P / -$120.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $120.00 is 10.7% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.42/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-11,260 · at cap $271.71. Next round in 7d: sell ~$112.00 (~0.49/sh). Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $125.96. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $124.00C Oct 23 '26 (14d) · +$4/sh room · net +$135.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $150.00C Nov 06 '26 (28d) · +$30/sh room · net +$50.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $120.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 7d · cap now $271.71 · spot $108
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~18% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $150.00C Nov 20 '26 | roll to 10× | $127.00C Oct 23 '26 · 14d ✓ CC-safe | $0.41 | 0.08 | 93% T:15% | $-15.00 | $-11,275 | $7,240 | at trip: ~+$0.29/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $120.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.15/sh now → $5.06 mid-life (likely $5.28–$7.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,231 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 21, at $122 (overshoots $2.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$120 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.80/sh | +$800 cycle +$3,440 [+$383…+$994] · 99% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$3,060 SAFE cap gain +$14,320 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$126 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.91/sh | +$908 cycle +$3,548 [-$29…+$1,072] · 74% credit | 73% surv 64% | +$8,685 SAFE cap gain +$19,945 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$128 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.26/sh | +$265 cycle +$2,905 [-$750…+$343] · 35% credit | 75% surv 67% | +$10,196 SAFE cap gain +$21,456 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$122 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.10/sh | +$97 cycle +$2,737 [-$407…+$196] · 35% credit | 69% surv 57% | +$3,996 SAFE cap gain +$15,256 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$137 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$2.41/sh | -$2,415 cycle +$225 [-$3,810…-$2,562] · 2% credit | 83% surv 80% | +$17,271 SAFE cap gain +$28,531 |
| budget: banked $2,640 debit $2,415 (91% used) → whole cycle still +$225 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,479/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $131.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.81/sh now → $5.52 mid-life (likely $4.52–$7.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 432 simulated challenges: the $131 strike is typically first touched on day 13 of 21, at $133 (overshoots $2.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$131 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.41/sh | +$413 cycle +$1,503 [+$194…+$1,220] · 90% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$12,764 SAFE cap gain +$24,024 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$137 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.51/sh | +$508 cycle +$1,598 [-$82…+$1,543] · 72% credit | 73% surv 63% | +$18,590 SAFE cap gain +$29,850 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$132 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.16/sh | +$161 cycle +$1,251 [-$85…+$917] · 70% credit | 68% surv 54% | +$13,108 SAFE cap gain +$24,368 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$138 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.16/sh | +$159 cycle +$1,249 [-$468…+$1,160] · 57% credit | 74% surv 65% | +$19,318 SAFE cap gain +$30,578 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$142 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | -$1.02/sh | -$1,022 cycle +$68 [-$1,813…-$130] · 23% credit | 77% surv 71% | +$22,443 SAFE cap gain +$33,703 |
| budget: banked $1,090 debit $1,022 (94% used) → whole cycle still +$68 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,554/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $145.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.64/sh now → $6.11 mid-life (likely $3.70–$6.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 103 simulated challenges: the $145 strike is typically first touched on day 17 of 21, at $148 (overshoots $2.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$150 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.25/sh | +$249 cycle +$649 [+$652…+$2,331] · 92% credit | 72% surv 61% | +$31,615 SAFE cap gain +$42,875 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$145 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$0.19/sh | -$192 cycle +$208 [+$281…+$1,486] · 87% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$26,406 SAFE cap gain +$37,666 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$152 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | -$0.51/sh | -$510 cycle -$110 [-$186…+$1,514] · 67% credit | 74% surv 65% | +$32,999 SAFE cap gain +$44,259 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $140.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.34/sh now → $5.90 mid-life (likely $4.25–$7.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 168 simulated challenges: the $140 strike is typically first touched on day 16 of 21, at $143 (overshoots $2.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$140 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.04/sh | +$38 cycle +$598 [+$172…+$1,322] · 84% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$21,458 SAFE cap gain +$32,718 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$146 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.10/sh | +$100 cycle +$660 [-$66…+$1,665] · 73% credit | 73% surv 63% | +$27,334 SAFE cap gain +$38,594 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$148 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | -$0.54/sh | -$545 cycle +$15 [-$817…+$993] · 46% credit | 74% surv 66% | +$28,836 SAFE cap gain +$40,096 |
| budget: banked $560 debit $545 (97% used) → whole cycle still +$15 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,230/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $120C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn +$2,255 76% T:49% flat -$9,005 · cap +$2,527 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 27 ✓ CC-safe | $120C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$535.00 84% T:32% flat -$10,725 · cap +$806.71 | $120C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$2,980 75% T:54% flat -$8,280 · cap +$3,252 -10pp surv for +14d | $120C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$4,255 72% T:60% flat -$7,005 · cap +$4,527 -2pp surv for +14d | $120C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$4,655 72% T:61% flat -$6,605 · cap +$4,927 -0pp surv for +7d · +47% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $131C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn +$700.00 89% T:23% flat -$10,560 · cap +$11,945 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 27 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$1.42/sh | — | $133C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$970.00 89% T:24% flat -$10,290 · cap +$14,210 | $135C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$1,585 87% T:28% flat -$9,675 · cap +$16,820 -2pp surv for +14d | = |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $145C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn -$5.00 96% T:9% flat -$11,265 · cap +$25,206 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 27 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$0.74/sh | $131C Oct 23 '26 (14d) -$155.00 95% T:10% flat -$11,415 · cap +$11,090 | = ★ | $160C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$130.00 96% T:8% flat -$11,130 · cap +$40,304 -1pp touch for +21d | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $140C Oct 30 '26 (21d) ⚠ earn +$155.00 94% T:12% flat -$11,105 · cap +$20,378 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 27 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~-$0.19/sh | $126C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$30.00 92% T:17% flat -$11,230 · cap +$6,287 | = ★ | $160C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$130.00 96% T:8% flat -$11,130 · cap +$40,304 cap +$20 for +21d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (139) · Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +2 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $120.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 7d · cap now $271.71 · spot $108
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
| ▶ ● BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 10× | $115.00C Oct 16 '26 · 7d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-4,126 if capped) | $0.82 | 0.08 | 81% T:38% | +$405.00 | $-10,855 | $-4,311 | ⚠ locks in $4,126 ($4.13/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (4) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 1 roll-down(s) at touch
40-50%
· up to $555.00 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE |
NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
● $114.00 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-4,974 if capped) | Oct 16 '26 · 7d | $555.00 | 78% | 45% |
✓ SKIP CC OTM
NVDA · 10c · Main:1299
MARKET
STOCK$231.99Main: 10centry ~$228.00 · +1.7%
CURRENT CC$250.00Oct 23 '26 · 14d · mark 0.62 (0.60 / 0.64)
CC STATUSOTM 7.8%91% survT:18%hist 95%hist 18%1.34σ · extrinsic 0.62
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$264.80-14.1% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$230.51+0.6% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$1,775
CC BUYBACK-$620.00
CLOSE P/L$1,155
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$1,775
STOCK @ $250.00$16,221
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.80
CC INC/MO$1,329
CALLS NET 90D$1.6k/mokeep 99% · 4 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$215.00C / -$225.00P / +$200.00P / -$250.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
-3.18 (earlier legs realized +0.76/sh, already banked) = -3.18/sh
(-$3,180 on 10c) ·
DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · room was BOUGHT; a paid roll sits in the chain
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $250.00 is 7.8% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.62/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $1,775 · at cap $16,221. Weekly gate: EXTENDED. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $237.68. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $255.00C Oct 30 '26 (21d) · +$5/sh room · net +$25.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $320.00C Jan 15 '27 (98d) · +$70/sh room · net +$100.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 12 '26 (3d) · Oct 14 '26 (5d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 19 '26 (10d) · Oct 21 '26 (12d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $250.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 14d · cap now $16,221 · spot $232
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~16% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $275.00C Nov 20 '26 | roll to 10× | $265.00C Nov 13 '26 · 35d ✓ CC-safe | $0.72 | 0.08 | 94% T:13% | +$100.00 | $1,875 | $28,349 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$142.86/mo of added tenor vs $1,329/mo run rate at trip: ~-$0.37/sh |
◆ SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 10× | $270.00C Nov 13 '26 · 35d ✓ CC-safe | $0.47 | 0.05 | 96% T:9% | $-150.00 | $1,625 | $32,108 | at trip: ~-$1.37/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $250.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.34/sh now → $5.90 mid-life (likely $5.34–$8.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.76/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 915 simulated challenges: the $250 strike is typically first touched on day 15 of 28, at $252 (overshoots $2.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$253 | 20 Nov 2026 | 28d left | +$1.60/sh | +$1,602 cycle +$3,362 [+$1,164…+$1,841] · 100% credit | 70% surv 57% | +$20,302 SAFE cap gain +$18,527 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$258 | 27 Nov 2026 | 35d left | +$0.21/sh | +$209 cycle +$1,969 [-$569…+$496] · 43% credit | 73% surv 65% | +$22,791 SAFE cap gain +$21,016 |
| SS $265 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$250 | 13 Nov 2026 | 21d left | -$0.51/sh | -$510 cycle +$1,250 [-$1,132…-$107] · 22% credit | 64% surv 51% | +$15,999 SAFE cap gain +$14,224 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $250.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 21 of 42); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $12.08/sh now → $8.54 mid-life (likely $8.93–$12.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,341 simulated challenges: the $250 strike is typically first touched on day 18 of 42, at $253 (overshoots $2.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$250 | 27 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$0.90/sh | -$903 cycle +$3,397 [-$1,867…-$865] · 10% credit | 65% surv 52% | +$17,517 SAFE cap gain +$15,742 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$258 | 27 Nov 2026 | 28d left | -$3.38/sh | -$3,381 cycle +$919 [-$4,470…-$3,585] · 0% credit | 74% surv 66% | +$21,741 SAFE cap gain +$19,966 |
| budget: banked $4,300 debit $3,381 (79% used) → whole cycle still +$919 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,529/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $265.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.84/sh now → $6.25 mid-life (likely $4.38–$7.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 232 simulated challenges: the $265 strike is typically first touched on day 20 of 28, at $268 (overshoots $2.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$268 | 27 Nov 2026 | 35d left | +$1.79/sh | +$1,788 cycle +$2,208 [+$1,642…+$3,078] · 100% credit | 69% surv 57% | +$31,567 SAFE cap gain +$29,792 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$268 | 20 Nov 2026 | 28d left | +$1.01/sh | +$1,011 cycle +$1,431 [+$849…+$1,999] · 97% credit | 70% surv 57% | +$31,097 SAFE cap gain +$29,322 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$273 | 27 Nov 2026 | 35d left | -$0.40/sh | -$404 cycle +$16 [-$807…+$777] · 47% credit | 73% surv 65% | +$33,707 SAFE cap gain +$31,932 |
| budget: banked $420 debit $404 (96% used) → whole cycle still +$16 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,010/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$265 | 13 Nov 2026 | 21d left | -$1.09/sh | -$1,092 cycle -$672 [-$1,237…+$280] · 32% credit | 64% surv 51% | +$26,711 SAFE cap gain +$24,936 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $260.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.67/sh now → $6.13 mid-life (likely $4.67–$7.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 397 simulated challenges: the $260 strike is typically first touched on day 19 of 28, at $262 (overshoots $2.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$263 | 27 Nov 2026 | 35d left | +$2.01/sh | +$2,005 cycle +$2,685 [+$1,689…+$2,932] · 100% credit | 69% surv 57% | +$27,753 SAFE cap gain +$25,978 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$263 | 20 Nov 2026 | 28d left | +$1.22/sh | +$1,217 cycle +$1,897 [+$931…+$1,953] · 99% credit | 70% surv 57% | +$27,275 SAFE cap gain +$25,500 |
| SS $265 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$268 | 27 Nov 2026 | 35d left | -$0.19/sh | -$190 cycle +$490 [-$742…+$649] · 42% credit | 73% surv 65% | +$29,848 SAFE cap gain +$28,073 |
| budget: banked $680 debit $190 (28% used) → whole cycle still +$490 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,093/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$260 | 13 Nov 2026 | 21d left | -$0.89/sh | -$891 cycle -$211 [-$1,220…+$90] · 27% credit | 64% surv 51% | +$22,913 SAFE cap gain +$21,138 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $250C Nov 06 '26 (28d) +$1,180 84% T:33% flat +$2,955 · cap +$17,401 ✓ CC-safe | — | = ★ | $250C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$3,730 76% T:49% flat +$5,505 · cap +$19,951 -8pp surv for +14d | $250C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$4,380 75% T:52% flat +$6,155 · cap +$20,601 -1pp surv for +7d · +84% better outcome vs ≤20d · +21d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $250C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$3,730 76% T:49% flat +$5,505 · cap +$19,951 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 17 ✓ CC-safe | — | — | = ★ | = ★ |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $265C Nov 06 '26 (28d) -$180.00 95% T:10% flat +$1,595 · cap +$28,069 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$1.06/sh | — | = ★ | $270C Nov 13 '26 (35d) -$150.00 96% T:9% flat +$1,625 · cap +$32,108 -1pp touch for +7d | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $260C Nov 06 '26 (28d) +$80.00 93% T:15% flat +$1,855 · cap +$24,319 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$0.13/sh | — | = ★ | $280C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$25.00 95% T:9% flat +$1,800 · cap +$40,302 cap +$20 for +14d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (37) · Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 / Nov 20 '26 +1 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $250.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 14d · cap now $16,221 · spot $232
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~17% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 10× | $247.50C Oct 19 '26 · 10d ✓ CC-safe | $0.35 | 0.10 | 93% T:14% | $-270.00 | $1,505 | $13,946 | — |
◆ SAFER hist touch ~10% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 10× | $245.00C Oct 14 '26 · 5d ✓ CC-safe | $0.15 | 0.06 | 95% T:9% | $-465.00 | $1,310 | $11,746 | — |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 10× | $245.00C Oct 23 '26 · 14d ✓ CC-safe | $1.08 | 0.16 | 85% T:31% | +$460.00 | $2,235 | $12,671 | — |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 10× | $242.50C Oct 21 '26 · 12d ✓ CC-safe | $1.06 | 0.22 | 83% T:34% | +$445.00 | $2,220 | $10,652 | — |
ALL CANDIDATES (18) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 12 '26 / Oct 14 '26 / Oct 16 '26 +3 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 4 roll-down(s) at touch
40-50%
· up to $2,755 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP CC OTM
MU · 2c · Neville:0865
MARKET
STOCK$1047.89Neville: 2centry ~$1235.00 · -15.2%
CURRENT CC$1,150.00Oct 16 '26 · 7d · mark 3.58 (3.50 / 3.65)
CC STATUSOTM 9.7%91% survT:18%hist 95%hist 18%1.36σ · extrinsic 3.58
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$1220.00-16.4% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$1226.80-17.1% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-38,529
CC BUYBACK-$715.00
CLOSE P/L$-39,244
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-38,529
STOCK @ $1,150.00$-15,894
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$22/pt+0.11δ/sh
CC INC/MO$3,064
CALLS NET 90D$14.1k/mokeep 80% · 21 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$970.00C / -$1,110.00P / +$390.00P / -$1,150.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
+9.06 (earlier legs realized +6.00/sh, already banked) = +9.06/sh
(+$1,812 on 2c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $1150.00 is 9.7% OTM. Safe. Earning $3.58/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-38,529 · at cap $-15,894. Next round in 7d: sell ~$1080.00 (~4.72/sh). Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $1148.90. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $1,200.00C Nov 06 '26 (28d) · +$50/sh room · net +$1,757 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $1,440.00C Nov 20 '26 (42d) · +$290/sh room · net +$24.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 12 '26 (3d) · Oct 14 '26 (5d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 19 '26 (10d) · Oct 21 '26 (12d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $1,150.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 7d · cap now $-15,894 · spot $1,048
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~20% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 2× | $1320.00C Nov 20 '26 · 42d ✓ CC-safe | $7.92 | 0.10 | 92% T:16% | +$870.00 | $-37,659 | $22,663 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$745.71/mo of added tenor vs $3,064/mo run rate at trip: ~+$4.59/sh |
◆ SAFER hist touch ~10% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 2× | $1330.00C Nov 06 '26 · 28d ✓ CC-safe mid capped $4.40 → $4.28 (above the lower strike) | $4.28 | 0.06 | 95% T:9% | +$140.00 | $-38,389 | $24,150 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$200.00/mo of added tenor vs $3,064/mo run rate at trip: ~-$5.55/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $1150.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $48.98/sh now → $34.65 mid-life (likely $31.90–$48.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $12.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$21.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 935 simulated challenges: the $1,150 strike is typically first touched on day 12 of 21, at $1,165 (overshoots $14.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,150 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$4.40/sh | +$879 cycle +$3,459 [+$265…+$1,298] · 89% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$13,486 NOT cap gain +$25,043 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,197 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$5.93/sh | +$1,187 cycle +$3,767 [+$35…+$1,771] · 77% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$3,359 NOT cap gain +$35,170 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,157 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$1.46/sh | +$291 cycle +$2,871 [-$400…+$661] · 50% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$12,536 NOT cap gain +$25,993 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,212 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.99/sh | +$198 cycle +$2,778 [-$1,050…+$713] · 40% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$1,105 NOT cap gain +$37,424 |
| SS $1,220 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,262 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | -$11.51/sh | -$2,301 cycle +$279 [-$3,912…-$1,912] · 6% credit | 81% surv 77% | +$7,176 SAFE cap gain +$45,705 |
| budget: banked $2,580 debit $2,301 (89% used) → whole cycle still +$279 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $3,653/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $1170.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $49.84/sh now → $35.25 mid-life (likely $31.27–$47.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$25.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 633 simulated challenges: the $1,170 strike is typically first touched on day 12 of 21, at $1,186 (overshoots $15.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,170 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$3.76/sh | +$753 cycle +$2,753 [+$167…+$1,363] · 83% credit | 65% surv 52% | -$9,865 NOT cap gain +$28,664 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,217 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$5.23/sh | +$1,046 cycle +$3,046 [-$22…+$1,872] · 74% credit | 73% surv 64% | +$243 SAFE cap gain +$38,772 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,177 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.82/sh | +$164 cycle +$2,164 [-$483…+$725] · 47% credit | 67% surv 54% | -$8,917 NOT cap gain +$29,612 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,232 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.29/sh | +$58 cycle +$2,058 [-$1,104…+$780] · 41% credit | 75% surv 68% | +$2,492 SAFE cap gain +$41,021 |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,267 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | -$8.92/sh | -$1,783 cycle +$217 [-$3,192…-$1,204] · 12% credit | 79% surv 75% | +$8,190 SAFE cap gain +$46,719 |
| budget: banked $2,000 debit $1,783 (89% used) → whole cycle still +$217 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $4,158/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $1310.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $55.80/sh now → $39.47 mid-life (likely $25.87–$45.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$37.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 63 simulated challenges: the $1,310 strike is typically first touched on day 17 of 21, at $1,329 (overshoots $18.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,352 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.91/sh | +$181 cycle +$603 [+$327…+$2,509] · 79% credit | 73% surv 63% | +$26,806 SAFE cap gain +$65,335 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,310 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | -$1.35/sh | -$270 cycle +$152 [-$51…+$1,526] · 73% credit | 65% surv 52% | +$17,661 SAFE cap gain +$56,190 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,357 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | -$0.69/sh | -$139 cycle +$283 [-$133…+$2,158] · 71% credit | 73% surv 64% | +$27,554 SAFE cap gain +$66,083 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $1270.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $54.10/sh now → $38.26 mid-life (likely $23.56–$45.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$35.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 114 simulated challenges: the $1,270 strike is typically first touched on day 16 of 21, at $1,286 (overshoots $16.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,270 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.23/sh | +$46 cycle +$600 [+$56…+$1,799] · 77% credit | 65% surv 52% | +$9,532 SAFE cap gain +$48,061 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,317 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$1.18/sh | +$236 cycle +$790 [+$10…+$2,410] · 75% credit | 73% surv 64% | +$19,501 SAFE cap gain +$58,030 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,327 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | -$2.20/sh | -$440 cycle +$114 [-$829…+$1,710] · 60% credit | 74% surv 67% | +$20,967 SAFE cap gain +$59,496 |
| budget: banked $554 debit $440 (79% used) → whole cycle still +$114 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $5,694/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $1150C Oct 30 '26 (21d) +$2,075 80% T:40% flat -$36,454 · cap -$13,819 ⚠ locks $14,026 if capped | $1150C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$790.00 85% T:30% flat -$37,739 · cap -$15,104 | $1150C Nov 06 '26 (28d) +$3,245 78% T:46% flat -$35,284 · cap -$12,649 -7pp surv for +14d | $1150C Nov 20 '26 (42d) +$5,135 74% T:54% flat -$33,394 · cap -$10,759 -3pp surv for +14d | $1150C Nov 27 '26 (49d) +$6,025 74% T:55% flat -$32,504 · cap -$9,869 -1pp surv for +7d · +17% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $1170C Oct 30 '26 (21d) +$1,440 84% T:33% flat -$37,089 · cap -$10,020 ⚠ locks $10,336 if capped at trip: ~+$24.14/sh | — | $1190C Nov 06 '26 (28d) +$2,035 84% T:33% flat -$36,494 · cap -$4,991 | $1210C Nov 13 '26 (35d) +$2,215 84% T:33% flat -$36,314 · cap -$377.35 +0pp surv for +7d | = |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $1310C Oct 30 '26 (21d) -$109.00 96% T:8% flat -$38,638 · cap +$19,467 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$6.86/sh | $1220C Oct 21 '26 (12d) -$222.00 95% T:9% flat -$38,751 · cap -$597.48 | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $1270C Oct 30 '26 (21d) +$107.00 94% T:12% flat -$38,422 · cap +$10,816 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~-$1.55/sh | $1200C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$35.00 92% T:16% flat -$38,494 · cap -$4,774 | $1330C Nov 06 '26 (28d) +$140.00 95% T:9% flat -$38,389 · cap +$24,150 cap +$130 for +14d | = | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (274) · Oct 19 '26 / Oct 21 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 +4 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $1,150.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 7d · cap now $-15,894 · spot $1,048
HARVEST Stock $1047.89 fell below your $1150.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 7 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $1,082.50 at +$1,570 (71% surv, T:59%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~18% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 2× | $1105.00C Oct 12 '26 · 3d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-25,988 if capped) | $1.11 | 0.06 | 93% T:15% | $-492.00 | $-39,021 | $-26,362 | ⚠ locks in $25,988 ($129.94/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ ● BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 2× | $1105.00C Oct 16 '26 · 7d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-24,883 if capped) | $7.05 | 0.19 | 80% T:40% | +$695.00 | $-37,834 | $-25,175 | ⚠ locks in $24,883 ($124.42/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (22) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 12 '26 / Oct 14 '26 / Oct 16 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 6 roll-down(s) at touch
40-50%
· up to $2,623 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP CC OTM
SPCX · 5c · Neville:0865
MARKET
STOCK$166.18Neville: 5centry ~$178.00 · -6.6%
CURRENT CC$195.00Oct 30 '26 · 21d · mark 0.86 (0.78 / 0.95)
CC STATUSOTM 17.3%92% survT:16%hist 95%hist 18%1.43σ · extrinsic 0.86
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$186.00-11.9% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$190.42-14.6% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-13,412
CC BUYBACK-$432.50
CLOSE P/L$-13,845
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-13,412
STOCK @ $195.00$2,675
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$58/pt+0.12δ/sh
CC INC/MO$617.86
CALLS NET 90D$2.0k/mokeep 87% · 14 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$150.00C / -$195.00P / +$135.00P / -$195.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
-3.48 (earlier legs realized +1.12/sh, already banked) = -3.48/sh
(-$1,740 on 5c) ·
DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · room was BOUGHT; a paid roll sits in the chain
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $195.00 is 17.3% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.86/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-13,412 · at cap $2,675. ⚠ LC has 161d left. Plan rebuild within 3 months.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $205.00C Nov 20 '26 (42d) · +$10/sh room · net +$482.50✓ DEEPEST FREE · $245.00C Dec 18 '26 (70d) · +$50/sh room · net +$45.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 12 '26 (3d) · Oct 14 '26 (5d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 19 '26 (10d) · Oct 21 '26 (12d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $195.00C · Oct 30 '26 · 21d · cap now $2,675 · spot $166
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $195.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 17 of 35); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $11.42/sh now → $8.08 mid-life (likely $7.26–$10.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 793 simulated challenges: the $195 strike is typically first touched on day 20 of 35, at $198 (overshoots $3.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$194 | 20 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.56/sh | +$280 cycle +$1,395 [+$154…+$700] · 95% credit | 66% surv 50% | +$3,156 SAFE cap gain +$16,569 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$195 | 20 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$0.03/sh | +$17 cycle +$1,132 [-$130…+$386] · 58% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$3,609 SAFE cap gain +$17,021 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$199 | 20 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$1.58/sh | -$788 cycle +$327 [-$1,052…-$561] · 6% credit | 71% surv 59% | +$5,118 SAFE cap gain +$18,530 |
| budget: banked $1,115 debit $788 (71% used) → whole cycle still +$327 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,064/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $220.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 17 of 35); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $12.88/sh now → $9.11 mid-life (likely $5.50–$9.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 157 simulated challenges: the $220 strike is typically first touched on day 27 of 35, at $223 (overshoots $3.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$220 | 20 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$1.33/sh | -$664 cycle -$329 [-$416…+$603] · 53% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$17,090 SAFE cap gain +$30,503 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $210.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 17 of 35); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $12.30/sh now → $8.70 mid-life (likely $6.35–$10.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 332 simulated challenges: the $210 strike is typically first touched on day 24 of 35, at $214 (overshoots $3.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$209 | 27 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.56/sh | +$280 cycle +$805 [+$269…+$1,193] · 91% credit | 65% surv 50% | +$11,616 SAFE cap gain +$25,028 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$210 | 20 Nov 2026 | 24d left | -$0.75/sh | -$373 cycle +$152 [-$356…+$371] · 50% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$11,660 SAFE cap gain +$25,073 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $195C Nov 13 '26 (35d) ⚠ earn +$710.00 85% T:30% flat -$12,702 · cap +$3,385 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 03 ✓ CC-safe | — | $195C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$282.50 88% T:24% flat -$13,130 · cap +$2,957 | $195C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$1,022 84% T:34% flat -$12,390 · cap +$3,697 -5pp surv for +14d | $195C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$1,292 83% T:35% flat -$12,120 · cap +$3,967 -0pp surv for +7d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $195C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$1,292 83% T:35% flat -$12,120 · cap +$3,967 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 03 ✓ CC-safe | — | — | — | = ★ |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $220C Nov 13 '26 (35d) ⚠ earn -$77.50 95% T:10% flat -$13,490 · cap +$16,552 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 03 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$0.85/sh | — | $210C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn -$115.00 95% T:10% flat -$13,528 · cap +$10,932 | $230C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn -$92.50 96% T:8% flat -$13,505 · cap +$22,119 -2pp touch for +14d | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $210C Nov 13 '26 (35d) ⚠ earn +$115.00 93% T:15% flat -$13,298 · cap +$11,162 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 03 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$1.32/sh | — | $200C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$102.50 91% T:18% flat -$13,310 · cap +$5,568 | $220C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$57.50 94% T:12% flat -$13,355 · cap +$16,687 cap +$20 for +14d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (52) · Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 / Nov 20 '26 / Nov 27 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $195.00C · Oct 30 '26 · 21d · cap now $2,675 · spot $166
HARVEST Stock $166.18 fell below your $195.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 3 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $172.50 at +$880.00 (70% surv, T:62%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 5× | $190.00C Oct 23 '26 · 14d ✓ CC-safe | $0.49 | 0.07 | 92% T:16% | $-187.50 | $-13,600 | $-303.87 | — |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 5× | $185.00C Oct 30 '26 · 21d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-2,452 if capped) | $1.50 | 0.07 | 86% T:29% | +$315.00 | $-13,098 | $-2,592 | ⚠ locks in $2,452 ($4.90/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (25) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 12 '26 / Oct 14 '26 / Oct 16 '26 +4 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 5 roll-down(s) at touch
40-50%
· up to $1,362 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP CC OTM
CRWV · 5c · Neville:0865
MARKET
STOCK$83.03Neville: 5centry ~$128.00 · -35.1%
CURRENT CC$100.00Oct 23 '26 · 14d · mark 0.49 (0.40 / 0.58)
CC STATUSOTM 20.4%92% survT:16%hist 95%hist 18%1.43σ · extrinsic 0.49
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$125.45-51.1% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$128.50-54.8% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-23,995
CC BUYBACK-$245.00
CLOSE P/L$-24,240
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-23,995
STOCK @ $100.00$-14,740
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$45/pt+0.09δ/sh
CC INC/MO$525.00
CALLS NET 90D$742/mokeep 87% · 5 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$105.00C / -$120.00P / +$40.00P / -$100.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
-1.42 (earlier legs realized +0.91/sh, already banked) = -1.42/sh
(-$710.00 on 5c) ·
DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · room was BOUGHT; a paid roll sits in the chain
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $100.00 is 20.4% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.49/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-23,995 · at cap $-14,740. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $113.86. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $105.00C Oct 30 '26 (21d) · +$5/sh room · net +$60.00 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $135.00C Mar 19 '27 (161d) · +$35/sh room · net +$2,035
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $100.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 14d · cap now $-14,740 · spot $83.03
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~18% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe richer door past earnings: $130.00C Nov 27 '26 | roll to 5× | $110.00C Nov 06 '26 · 28d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-9,484 if capped) | $0.73 | 0.10 | 93% T:15% | +$122.50 | $-23,872 | $-9,164 | ⚠ locks in $9,484 ($18.97/sh) loss if capped at trip: ~+$0.65/sh |
◆ SAFER hist touch ~10% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll to 5× | $110.00C Oct 30 '26 · 21d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-9,614 if capped) | $0.40 | 0.06 | 96% T:9% | $-45.00 | $-24,040 | $-9,331 | ⚠ locks in $9,614 ($19.23/sh) loss if capped at trip: ~-$0.48/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $100.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.69/sh now → $5.44 mid-life (likely $4.85–$7.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 754 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 16 of 28, at $102 (overshoots $2.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$100 | 13 Nov 2026 | 21d left | +$0.90/sh | +$449 cycle +$1,254 [+$300…+$595] · 100% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$13,950 NOT cap gain +$10,045 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$105 | 27 Nov 2026 | 35d left | +$0.61/sh | +$303 cycle +$1,108 [+$3…+$518] · 75% credit | 73% surv 63% | -$11,532 NOT cap gain +$12,463 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$106 | 27 Nov 2026 | 35d left | +$0.25/sh | +$127 cycle +$932 [-$186…+$332] · 50% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$11,176 NOT cap gain +$12,819 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$102 | 13 Nov 2026 | 21d left | +$0.08/sh | +$42 cycle +$847 [-$141…+$145] · 43% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$13,309 NOT cap gain +$10,686 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$112 | 27 Nov 2026 | 35d left | -$1.48/sh | -$741 cycle +$64 [-$1,176…-$584] · 7% credit | 79% surv 74% | -$8,854 NOT cap gain +$15,141 |
| budget: banked $805 debit $741 (92% used) → whole cycle still +$64 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,698/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $120.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $9.23/sh now → $6.53 mid-life (likely $4.26–$7.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 115 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 21 of 28, at $122 (overshoots $2.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$120 | 13 Nov 2026 | 21d left | +$0.02/sh | +$11 cycle +$171 [+$11…+$700] · 77% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$4,419 NOT cap gain +$19,576 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$124 | 27 Nov 2026 | 35d left | +$0.07/sh | +$35 cycle +$195 [-$28…+$909] · 74% credit | 71% surv 61% | -$2,363 NOT cap gain +$21,632 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$125 | 27 Nov 2026 | 35d left | -$0.29/sh | -$145 cycle +$15 [-$210…+$722] · 61% credit | 72% surv 62% | -$2,015 NOT cap gain +$21,980 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $115.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.84/sh now → $6.26 mid-life (likely $4.05–$7.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 182 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 20 of 28, at $117 (overshoots $2.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$115 | 13 Nov 2026 | 21d left | +$0.27/sh | +$137 cycle +$372 [+$133…+$715] · 89% credit | 67% surv 53% | -$6,866 NOT cap gain +$17,129 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$119 | 27 Nov 2026 | 35d left | +$0.34/sh | +$168 cycle +$403 [+$103…+$966] · 85% credit | 71% surv 61% | -$4,803 NOT cap gain +$19,192 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$120 | 27 Nov 2026 | 35d left | -$0.02/sh | -$12 cycle +$223 [-$110…+$769] · 64% credit | 72% surv 63% | -$4,453 NOT cap gain +$19,542 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$121 | 27 Nov 2026 | 35d left | -$0.38/sh | -$191 cycle +$44 [-$307…+$577] · 54% credit | 73% surv 64% | -$4,102 NOT cap gain +$19,893 |
| budget: banked $235 debit $191 (81% used) → whole cycle still +$44 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,519/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $100C Nov 06 '26 (28d) +$597.50 85% T:32% flat -$23,398 · cap -$14,142 ⚠ locks $14,321 if capped | — | = ★ | $100C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$1,430 80% T:44% flat -$22,565 · cap -$13,310 -5pp surv for +14d | $100C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$1,680 79% T:46% flat -$22,315 · cap -$13,060 -1pp surv for +7d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $100C Nov 06 '26 (28d) +$597.50 85% T:32% flat -$23,398 · cap -$14,142 ⚠ locks $14,321 if capped | — | = ★ | $110C Nov 13 '26 (35d) ⚠ earn +$535.00 89% T:22% flat -$23,460 · cap -$8,751 +4pp surv for +7d | $115C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$657.50 90% T:21% flat -$23,338 · cap -$5,902 +1pp surv for +14d |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $120C Nov 06 '26 (28d) -$57.50 97% T:7% flat -$24,052 · cap -$3,890 ⚠ locks $4,368 if capped at trip: ~-$1.28/sh | — | = ★ | $140C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn -$10.00 97% T:6% flat -$24,005 · cap +$7,065 -1pp touch for +14d | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $115C Nov 06 '26 (28d) +$27.50 95% T:10% flat -$23,968 · cap -$6,532 ⚠ locks $6,929 if capped ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~-$0.45/sh | — | = ★ | $130C Nov 13 '26 (35d) ⚠ earn +$17.50 97% T:7% flat -$23,978 · cap +$1,639 cap +$15 for +7d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (110) · Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 / Nov 20 '26 +1 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $100.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 14d · cap now $-14,740 · spot $83.03
HARVEST Stock $83.03 fell below your $100.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 6 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $89.00 at +$705.00 (73% surv, T:56%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~18% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 5× | $95.00C Oct 16 '26 · 7d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-17,548 if capped) | $0.30 | 0.08 | 93% T:15% | $-97.50 | $-24,092 | $-17,564 | ⚠ locks in $17,548 ($35.10/sh) loss if capped |
◆ SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 5× | $98.00C Oct 16 '26 · 7d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-16,007 if capped) | $0.19 | 0.05 | 96% T:9% | $-150.00 | $-24,145 | $-15,981 | ⚠ locks in $16,007 ($32.01/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 5× | $98.00C Oct 23 '26 · 14d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-15,842 if capped) | $0.60 | 0.12 | 91% T:20% | +$57.50 | $-23,938 | $-15,773 | ⚠ locks in $15,842 ($31.68/sh) loss if capped |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 5× | $90.00C Oct 16 '26 · 7d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-19,963 if capped) | $0.78 | 0.19 | 83% T:36% | +$145.00 | $-23,850 | $-20,049 | ⚠ locks in $19,963 ($39.93/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (14) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 3 roll-down(s) at touch
40-50%
· up to $1,105 · riskier, your call
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✓ SKIP CC OTM
AAPL · 5c · RetireInc:7291
MARKET
STOCK$332.19RetireInc: 5centry ~$335.50 · -1.0%
CURRENT CC$350.00Oct 16 '26 · 7d · mark 0.38 (0.35 / 0.40)
CC STATUSOTM 5.4%93% survT:13%hist 95%hist 18%1.50σ · extrinsic 0.38
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$334.64-0.7% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$337.54-1.6% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-2,823
CC BUYBACK-$187.50
CLOSE P/L$-3,010
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-2,823
STOCK @ $350.00$7,665
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$89/pt+0.18δ/sh
CC INC/MO$803.57
CALLS NET 90D$1.1k/mokeep 100% · 3 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$240.00C / -$330.00P / +$285.00P / -$350.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
-0.94 (earlier legs realized +1.68/sh, already banked) = -0.94/sh
(-$470.00 on 5c) ·
DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · room was BOUGHT; a paid roll sits in the chain
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $350.00 is 5.4% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.38/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-2,823 · at cap $7,665. Next round in 7d: sell ~$340.00 (~1.49/sh). Weekly gate: EXTENDED. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $347.94. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $360.00C Nov 06 '26 (28d) · +$10/sh room · net +$790.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $440.00C Mar 19 '27 (161d) · +$90/sh room · net +$455.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 12 '26 (3d) · Oct 14 '26 (5d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 19 '26 (10d) · Oct 21 '26 (12d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $350.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 7d · cap now $7,665 · spot $332
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~15% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $380.00C Nov 27 '26 | roll to 5× | $360.00C Oct 30 '26 · 21d ✓ CC-safe | $0.66 | 0.08 | 94% T:12% | +$142.50 | $-2,680 | $13,697 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$305.36/mo of added tenor vs $803.57/mo run rate at trip: ~+$0.29/sh |
◆ ↗ ↗ SAFER + ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) + FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% ▸ if challenged | roll to 5× | $357.50C Oct 23 '26 · 14d ✓ CC-safe | $0.40 | 0.06 | 96% T:9% | +$10.00 | $-2,813 | $12,092 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$42.86/mo of added tenor vs $803.57/mo run rate at trip: ~-$0.10/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $350.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.83/sh now → $6.25 mid-life (likely $5.67–$8.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 835 simulated challenges: the $350 strike is typically first touched on day 12 of 21, at $352 (overshoots $2.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$350 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$1.99/sh | +$995 cycle +$1,920 [+$732…+$1,077] · 99% credit | 65% surv 51% | +$8,829 SAFE cap gain +$11,651 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$358 | 27 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.80/sh | +$398 cycle +$1,323 [-$152…+$655] · 64% credit | 71% surv 62% | +$12,600 SAFE cap gain +$15,423 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$353 | 6 Nov 2026 | 18d left | +$0.45/sh | +$226 cycle +$1,151 [-$92…+$294] · 63% credit | 68% surv 57% | +$9,716 SAFE cap gain +$12,538 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$358 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | +$0.55/sh | +$276 cycle +$1,201 [-$154…+$498] · 60% credit | 74% surv 64% | +$12,552 SAFE cap gain +$15,375 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$363 | 20 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$1.36/sh | -$678 cycle +$247 [-$1,233…-$491] · 11% credit | 78% surv 71% | +$14,522 SAFE cap gain +$17,345 |
| budget: banked $925 debit $678 (73% used) → whole cycle still +$247 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,292/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $350.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $12.44/sh now → $8.80 mid-life (likely $9.33–$12.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,310 simulated challenges: the $350 strike is typically first touched on day 12 of 28, at $353 (overshoots $3.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$353 | 27 Nov 2026 | 35d left | +$0.45/sh | +$224 cycle +$2,124 [-$566…+$280] · 35% credit | 68% surv 56% | +$10,460 SAFE cap gain +$13,283 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$350 | 13 Nov 2026 | 21d left | -$1.37/sh | -$685 cycle +$1,215 [-$1,375…-$651] · 10% credit | 64% surv 51% | +$8,046 SAFE cap gain +$10,868 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$363 | 27 Nov 2026 | 35d left | -$3.57/sh | -$1,786 cycle +$114 [-$2,877…-$1,896] · 2% credit | 75% surv 69% | +$14,317 SAFE cap gain +$17,139 |
| budget: banked $1,900 debit $1,786 (94% used) → whole cycle still +$114 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,240/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFER · $357.5 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.45/sh now → $5.27 mid-life (likely $3.59–$6.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 231 simulated challenges: the $358 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 14, at $360 (overshoots $2.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$370 | 27 Nov 2026 | 42d left | +$0.66/sh | +$332 cycle +$487 [+$86…+$989] · 78% credit | 74% surv 68% | +$19,052 SAFE cap gain +$21,874 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$358 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | -$0.28/sh | -$139 cycle +$16 [-$182…+$486] · 61% credit | 65% surv 51% | +$11,413 SAFE cap gain +$14,236 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$370 | 20 Nov 2026 | 35d left | -$0.07/sh | -$37 cycle +$118 [-$248…+$586] · 59% credit | 78% surv 71% | +$18,752 SAFE cap gain +$21,575 |
| budget: banked $155 debit $37 (24% used) → whole cycle still +$118 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,226/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $350C Oct 30 '26 (21d) +$767.50 84% T:31% flat -$2,055 · cap +$8,433 ✓ CC-safe | $350C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$327.50 89% T:22% flat -$2,495 · cap +$7,993 | $350C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$1,800 77% T:47% flat -$1,023 · cap +$9,465 -12pp surv for +14d | $350C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$2,438 75% T:52% flat -$385.00 · cap +$10,103 -2pp surv for +14d | $350C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$3,012 72% T:58% flat +$190.00 · cap +$10,678 -3pp surv for +7d · +837% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $350C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$1,800 77% T:47% flat -$1,023 · cap +$9,465 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 02 ✓ CC-safe | — | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) + ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $357.5C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$10.00 96% T:9% flat -$2,813 · cap +$12,092 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~-$0.10/sh | = ★ | $375C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$102.50 96% T:9% flat -$2,720 · cap +$22,490 ≈ same touch for +14d | = | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (75) · Oct 19 '26 / Oct 21 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 +4 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $350.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 7d · cap now $7,665 · spot $332
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 5× | $347.50C Oct 16 '26 · 7d ✓ CC-safe | $0.52 | 0.09 | 92% T:15% | +$72.50 | $-2,750 | $6,266 | — |
◆ SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 5× | $342.50C Oct 12 '26 · 3d ✓ CC-safe | $0.16 | 0.06 | 96% T:9% | $-107.50 | $-2,930 | $3,141 | — |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 5× | $342.50C Oct 16 '26 · 7d ✓ CC-safe | $1.17 | 0.19 | 83% T:33% | +$397.50 | $-2,425 | $3,646 | — |
● SAFEST VIABLE ▸ if challenged | roll down to 5× | $340.00C Oct 14 '26 · 5d ✓ CC-safe | $1.10 | 0.23 | 82% T:37% | +$365.00 | $-2,458 | $2,142 | — |
SAFEST VIABLE · $340.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.49/sh now → $3.18 mid-life (likely $3.12–$5.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 817 simulated challenges: the $340 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $342 (overshoots $2.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$340 | 16 Oct 2026 | 4d left | -$2.29/sh | -$1,143 cycle -$613 [-$1,962…-$1,111] | 55% surv 50% | +$814 SAFE cap gain +$3,636 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ALL CANDIDATES (11) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 12 '26 / Oct 14 '26 / Oct 16 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 2 roll-down(s) at touch
40-50%
· up to $722.50 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE |
NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
● $340.00 ✓ CC-safe | Oct 16 '26 · 7d | $652.50 | 77% | 46% |
$335.00 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-961.00 if capped) | Oct 09 '26 · 0d | $70.00 | 79% | 41% |
✓ SKIP CC EXPIRING WORTHLESS
APP · 1c · RetireInc:7291
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Roll early: only $14 of room past the strike (~0.6 typical days). One normal day can jump it, so roll on the approach, do not wait for the cross
ACT
before $300
on the approach · the window past the strike is too short
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤30d)
up to ~$330
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$314
$14 of room · ~0.6 typical days
$280.27 now
$300 strike
$314 free roll gone
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤30d): stock at $300 → up to $330 · stock at $305 → up to $325 · stock at $309 → up to $320 · above $314 → capped below the stock
Other tenor budgets: ≤15d gone above ~$307
Later expiries cross earnings and are not counted (never sell income into a print), so the longest free roll here is 21d.
Your current call already sits under the CC-safe floor $611.85, so rolls are not held to it: any higher strike is an improvement.
MARKET
STOCK$280.27RetireInc: 1centry ~$601.00 · -53.4%
CURRENT CC$300.00Oct 09 '26 · 0d · mark 0.08 (0.05 / 0.10)
CC STATUSOTM 7.0%97% survT:6%hist 95%hist 7%1.92σ · extrinsic 0.08
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$588.00-109.8% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$611.39-118.1% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-35,478
CC BUYBACK-$7.50
CLOSE P/L$-35,485
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-35,478
STOCK @ $300.00$-33,292
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$11/pt+0.11δ/sh
CALLS NET 90D$1.2k/mokeep 85% · 9 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$460.00C / -$540.00P / +$185.00P / -$300.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
-1.64 (earlier legs realized +3.00/sh, already banked) = -1.64/sh
(-$164.00 on 1c) ·
DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · room was BOUGHT; a paid roll sits in the chain
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $300.00 is 7.0% OTM with 0d left. Expiring worthless. Touch odds 6% before expiry. Next round: sell ~$290.00 CC (~1.26/sh ≈ $126.00 for 1 ct). Confirm strike/premium in TWS. Weekly gate: PULLBACK. Reference 20W MA (bounce target) at $397.94. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $315.00C Oct 16 '26 (7d) · +$15/sh room · net +$51.00 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $680.00C Mar 19 '27 (161d) · +$380/sh room · net +$221.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d)
⚠ No roll is CC-safe — the CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so a cap anywhere locks a from-entry loss if assigned. That loss is already locked by the current CC, so recommendations below rank roll-ups against the current cap instead (every strike up improves P/L @ CAP — see CAP GAIN). All rows tagged ✕CC-safe for reference.
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $300.00C · Oct 09 '26 · 0d · cap now $-33,292 · spot $280
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ ↗ ↗ BEST BALANCE + ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) + FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) hist touch ~12% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe ▸ if challenged | roll to 1× | $317.50C Oct 16 '26 · 7d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-31,558 if capped) | $0.50 | 0.06 | 95% T:10% | +$42.50 | $-35,435 | $-31,311 | ⚠ locks in $31,558 ($315.58/sh) loss if capped |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $300.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $14.15/sh now → $10.01 mid-life (likely $10.59–$15.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,182 simulated challenges: the $300 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 14, at $305 (overshoots $4.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$320 | 20 Nov 2026 | 35d left | +$7.15/sh | +$715 cycle +$1,095 [+$488…+$713] · 100% credit | 74% surv 66% | -$30,514 NOT cap gain +$4,964 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$300 | 6 Nov 2026 | 21d left | +$2.75/sh | +$275 cycle +$655 [+$2…+$266] · 76% credit | 63% surv 53% | -$32,999 NOT cap gain +$2,478 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$320 | 6 Nov 2026 | 21d left | +$1.99/sh | +$199 cycle +$579 [-$27…+$167] · 70% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$30,941 NOT cap gain +$4,537 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$320 | 6 Nov 2026 | 21d left | +$1.99/sh | +$199 cycle +$579 [-$27…+$167] · 70% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$30,941 NOT cap gain +$4,537 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $302.5 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $9.66/sh now → $6.83 mid-life (likely $6.09–$10.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 576 simulated challenges: the $302 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $307 (overshoots $4.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$322 | 20 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$11.60/sh | +$1,160 cycle +$1,295 [+$1,010…+$1,254] · 100% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$30,043 NOT cap gain +$5,434 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$322 | 6 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$6.72/sh | +$672 cycle +$807 [+$503…+$747] · 99% credit | 75% surv 67% | -$30,442 NOT cap gain +$5,036 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$372 | 13 Nov 2026 | 32d left | -$1.29/sh | -$129 cycle +$6 [-$417…-$70] · 15% credit | 88% surv 86% | -$25,862 NOT cap gain +$9,615 |
| budget: banked $135 debit $129 (96% used) → whole cycle still +$6 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $519/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$302 | 23 Oct 2026 | 10d left | -$3.49/sh | -$349 cycle -$214 [-$607…-$268] · 2% credit | 57% surv 52% | -$33,493 NOT cap gain +$1,984 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
BEST BALANCE · $317.5 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.14/sh now → $7.17 mid-life (likely $5.42–$9.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 142 simulated challenges: the $318 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $322 (overshoots $4.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$337 | 20 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$11.66/sh | +$1,166 cycle +$1,201 [+$1,069…+$1,344] · 100% credit | 74% surv 65% | -$28,509 NOT cap gain +$6,968 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$337 | 6 Nov 2026 | 24d left | +$6.72/sh | +$672 cycle +$707 [+$556…+$820] · 98% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$28,916 NOT cap gain +$6,562 |
| SS $588 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$318 | 23 Oct 2026 | 10d left | -$3.82/sh | -$382 cycle -$347 [-$573…-$213] | 57% surv 52% | -$32,011 NOT cap gain +$3,466 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $300C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$442.50 76% T:49% flat -$35,035 · cap -$32,850 ⚠ locks $33,097 if capped | = ★ | $300C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$1,568 67% T:72% flat -$33,910 · cap -$31,725 -10pp surv for +14d | $300C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$1,938 66% T:75% flat -$33,540 · cap -$31,355 -1pp surv for +14d | = |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $302.5C Oct 16 '26 (7d) +$157.50 86% T:29% flat -$35,320 · cap -$32,858 ⚠ locks $33,050 if capped at trip: ~-$0.61/sh | = ★ | $355C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$487.50 89% T:24% flat -$34,990 · cap -$26,711 +3pp surv for +21d | $350C Nov 13 '26 (35d) ⚠ earn +$697.50 86% T:29% flat -$34,780 · cap -$27,055 -3pp surv for +7d | = |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) + ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $317.5C Oct 16 '26 (7d) +$42.50 95% T:10% flat -$35,435 · cap -$31,311 ⚠ locks $31,558 if capped at trip: ~-$5.00/sh | = ★ | $405C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$155.00 97% T:7% flat -$35,322 · cap -$21,503 -3pp touch for +21d | = | = |
CANDIDATES (17 of 114) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +1 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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✓ SKIP CC EXPIRING WORTHLESS
GLXY · capped $23.00C Oct 09 '26 · 100c · Main:1299BBC
CC_PARTIAL
⚠ EARNINGS · NEAR
2026-10-20 (Tue)
in 11 days
Any expiration on or after this date carries earnings-gap risk.
Consider further-OTM strikes or shorter expirations.
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Hold, but know this: no free roll (≤15d) exists even at $23. If it crosses, the choices are a debit, a longer or earnings-crossing tenor, or staying capped
ACT AT
$23
hold below it · roll that session · pre-load in TWS
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤15d)
nothing
no credit roll clears the stock
FREE ROLL
none
even with the stock at the strike
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Later expiries cross earnings and are not counted (never sell income into a print), so the longest free roll here is 7d.
Your current call already sits under the CC-safe floor $35.58, so rolls are not held to it: any higher strike is an improvement.
MARKET
STOCK$20.35Main: 100centry ~$37.00 · -45.0%
CURRENT CC$23.00Oct 09 '26 · 0d · mark 0.23 (0.00 / 0.24)
CC STATUSOTM 13.0%98% survT:3%hist 95%hist 7%2.16σ · extrinsic 0.23
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$39.71-95.1% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$35.43-74.1% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-125,350
CC BUYBACK-$2,280
CLOSE P/L$-127,630
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-125,350
STOCK @ $23.00$-104,326
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.79
CALLS NET 90D$3.4k/mokeep 69% · 8 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$37.50C / -$37.50P / +$17.50P / -$23.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
+0.31 (earlier legs realized +0.15/sh, already banked) = +0.31/sh
(+$3,100 on 100c) ·
CREDIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · the ceiling was PAID to move; every hop a credit
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $23.00 is 13.0% OTM with 0d left. Expiring worthless. Touch odds 3% before expiry. Next round: sell ~$21.00 CC (~0.09/sh ≈ $900.00 for 100 ct). Confirm strike/premium in TWS. Weekly gate: PULLBACK. Reference 20W MA (bounce target) at $24.89. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $25.00C Nov 27 '26 (49d) · +$2/sh room · net +$8,220 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $40.00C Jan 15 '27 (98d) · +$17/sh room · net +$1,170
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d)
⚠ No roll is CC-safe — the CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so a cap anywhere locks a from-entry loss if assigned. That loss is already locked by the current CC, so recommendations below rank roll-ups against the current cap instead (every strike up improves P/L @ CAP — see CAP GAIN). All rows tagged ✕CC-safe for reference.
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $23.00C · Oct 09 '26 · 0d · cap now $-104,326 · spot $20.35
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $23.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $1.99/sh now → $1.41 mid-life (likely $1.39–$2.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 961 simulated challenges: the $23 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 14, at $24 (overshoots $0.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (100 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$26 | 27 Nov 2026 | 42d left | -$0.06/sh | -$627 cycle +$873 [-$4,537…+$349] · 27% credit | 75% surv 70% | -$87,389 NOT cap gain +$37,961 |
| budget: banked $1,500 debit $627 (42% used) → whole cycle still +$873 cash · rolled 100 ct earn ≈ $9,614/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $27.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 100 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.60/sh now → $1.84 mid-life (likely $1.15–$2.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 125 simulated challenges: the $27 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 14, at $28 (overshoots $0.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (100 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$30 | 27 Nov 2026 | 42d left | +$0.13/sh | +$1,266 cycle +$1,666 [+$704…+$7,789] · 78% credit | 74% surv 67% | -$52,835 NOT cap gain +$72,515 |
| SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $23C Oct 23 '26 (14d) ⚠ earn +$570.00 80% T:42% flat -$124,780 · cap -$103,756 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 20 ⚠ locks $103,331 if capped | = ★ | $23C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$8,220 74% T:56% flat -$117,130 · cap -$96,106 -6pp surv for +14d | $23C Nov 13 '26 (35d) ⚠ earn +$10,920 72% T:62% flat -$114,430 · cap -$93,406 -2pp surv for +7d | $23C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$12,070 71% T:64% flat -$113,280 · cap -$92,256 -1pp surv for +14d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $26C Nov 27 '26 (49d) ⚠ earn +$6,070 83% T:38% flat -$119,280 · cap -$74,455 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 20 ⚠ locks $77,023 if capped at trip: ~+$0.72/sh | — | $24C Nov 06 '26 (28d) ⚠ earn +$5,770 80% T:44% flat -$119,580 · cap -$90,622 | $25C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$7,020 80% T:43% flat -$118,330 · cap -$81,439 +1pp surv for +14d | = ★ |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $27C Oct 23 '26 (14d) ⚠ earn -$1,480 96% T:8% flat -$126,830 · cap -$74,072 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 20 ⚠ locks $72,717 if capped at trip: ~-$0.62/sh | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $23C Oct 23 '26 (14d) ⚠ earn +$570.00 80% T:42% flat -$124,780 · cap -$103,756 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 20 ⚠ locks $103,331 if capped | = ★ | = ★ | $30C Nov 20 '26 (42d) ⚠ earn +$1,870 93% T:15% flat -$123,480 · cap -$46,921 cap +$7 for +28d | = |
CANDIDATES (19 of 65) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +2 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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✓ SKIP CC OTM
RKLB · 6c · RetireInc:7291
MARKET
STOCK$68.89RetireInc: 6centry ~$148.00 · -53.5%
CURRENT CC$90.00Oct 16 '26 · 7d · mark 0.10 (0.05 / 0.15)
CC STATUSOTM 30.6%99% survT:2%hist 95%hist 7%2.27σ · extrinsic 0.10
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$141.55-105.5% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$147.84-114.6% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-50,280
CC BUYBACK-$60.00
CLOSE P/L$-50,340
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-50,280
STOCK @ $90.00$-36,761
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$40/pt+0.07δ/sh
CC INC/MO$257.14
CALLS NET 90D$2.4k/mokeep 66% · 16 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$115.00C / -$135.00P / +$45.00P / -$90.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
CC LINEAGE
-1.41 (earlier legs realized +0.76/sh, already banked) = -1.41/sh
(-$846.00 on 6c) ·
DEBIT-BUILT · 2 rolls
since the last fresh write · room was BOUGHT; a paid roll sits in the chain
book: log
· 18h ago
REASON
CC $90.00 is 30.6% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.10/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-50,280 · at cap $-36,761. Next round in 7d: sell ~$71.00 (~0.31/sh). Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $122.91. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $100.00C Nov 06 '26 (28d) · +$10/sh room · net +$39.00 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $125.00C Mar 19 '27 (161d) · +$35/sh room · net +$1,506 · under CC-SS
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d)
⚠ No roll is CC-safe — the CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so a cap anywhere locks a from-entry loss if assigned. That loss is already locked by the current CC, so recommendations below rank roll-ups against the current cap instead (every strike up improves P/L @ CAP — see CAP GAIN). All rows tagged ✕CC-safe for reference.
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $90.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 7d · cap now $-36,761 · spot $68.89
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ ▶ ↗ ↗ BEST BALANCE + BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) + FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) hist touch ~10% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll to 6× | $90.00C Oct 30 '26 · 21d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-37,126 if capped) | $0.26 | 0.06 | 95% T:10% | +$93.00 | $-50,187 | $-36,668 | ⚠ locks in $37,126 ($61.88/sh) loss if capped |
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) + ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $90C Oct 30 '26 (21d) +$93.00 95% T:10% flat -$50,187 · cap -$36,668 ⚠ locks $37,126 if capped | — | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ |
CANDIDATES (11 of 68) · Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $90.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 7d · cap now $-36,761 · spot $68.89
HARVEST Stock $68.89 fell below your $90.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 2 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $72.00 at +$483.00 (71% surv, T:60%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~18% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 6× | $79.00C Oct 16 '26 · 7d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-44,004 if capped) mid capped $0.28 → $0.23 (above the lower strike) | $0.23 | 0.07 | 93% T:14% | +$78.00 | $-50,202 | $-43,727 | ⚠ locks in $44,004 ($73.34/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ ● ⚠ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + SAFEST VIABLE + RISKY HARVEST | roll down to 6× | $75.00C Oct 16 '26 · 7d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-46,387 if capped) | $0.45 | 0.15 | 84% T:33% | +$210.00 | $-50,070 | $-46,156 | ⚠ locks in $46,387 ($77.31/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (6) · Oct 16 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
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⚠ STRETCH · 2 roll-down(s) at touch
40-50%
· up to $630.00 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE |
NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
$74.00 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-46,942 if capped) | Oct 16 '26 · 7d | $270.00 | 80% | 40% |
● $73.00 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-47,474 if capped) | Oct 16 '26 · 7d | $360.00 | 76% | 49% |
✓ SKIP CC EXPIRING WORTHLESS
COPX · 20c · Joint:1782
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Hold. Nothing to do below $89 (100% it expires and you keep $1,425)
ACT AT
$89
hold below it · roll that session · pre-load in TWS
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤30d)
up to ~$97
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$92
$3 of room · ~1.2 typical days
$85 now
$89 strike
$92 free roll gone
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤30d): stock at $89 → up to $97 · stock at $90 → up to $95 · stock at $91 → up to $94 · above $92 → capped below the stock
Other tenor budgets: ≤15d gone above ~$91 · ≤45d gone above ~$93.50
Your current call already sits under the CC-safe floor $96.03, so rolls are not held to it: any higher strike is an improvement.
MARKET
STOCK$85.00Joint: 20centry ~$93.00 · -8.6%
CURRENT CC$89.00Oct 09 '26 · 0d · mark 0.71 (0.00 / 0.75)
CC STATUSOTM 4.7%100% survT:0%hist 95%hist 7%3.61σ · extrinsic 0.71
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$93.40-9.9% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$95.86-12.8% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-21,800
CC BUYBACK-$1,425
CLOSE P/L$-23,225
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-21,800
STOCK @ $89.00$-13,674
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$32/pt+0.02δ/sh
CALLS NET 90D$1.6k/mokeep 81% · 6 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$65.00C / -$90.00P / +$68.00P / -$89.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $89.00 is 4.7% OTM with 0d left. Expiring worthless. Touch odds 0% before expiry. Next round: sell ~$88.00 CC (~0.38/sh ≈ $760.00 for 20 ct). Confirm strike/premium in TWS. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $96.20. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $92.00C Oct 30 '26 (21d) · +$3/sh room · net +$845.00 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $115.00C Jan 15 '27 (98d) · +$26/sh room · net +$995.00
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CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (21d) · Nov 06 '26 (28d) · Nov 13 '26 (35d) · Nov 20 '26 (42d) · Nov 27 '26 (49d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $89.00C · Oct 09 '26 · 0d · cap now $-13,674 · spot $85.00
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|
★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~13% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 20× | $110.00C Nov 20 '26 · 42d ✓ CC-safe | $0.45 | 0.07 | 95% T:10% | $-525.00 | $-22,325 | $28,463 | — |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $89.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.32/sh now → $2.35 mid-life (likely $2.61–$3.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,363 simulated challenges: the $89 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 14, at $90 (overshoots $1.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$89 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$0.63/sh | +$1,265 cycle +$3,365 [+$748…+$1,312] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$10,966 NOT cap gain +$10,834 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$94 | 20 Nov 2026 | 35d left | +$0.54/sh | +$1,072 cycle +$3,172 [+$28…+$1,006] · 77% credit | 75% surv 68% | -$1,415 NOT cap gain +$20,385 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$95 | 20 Nov 2026 | 35d left | +$0.13/sh | +$263 cycle +$2,363 [-$920…+$138] · 29% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$139 NOT cap gain +$21,661 |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$90 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$0.00/sh | +$9 cycle +$2,109 [-$746…-$67] · 22% credit | 68% surv 57% | -$10,174 NOT cap gain +$11,626 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$100 | 20 Nov 2026 | 35d left | -$0.93/sh | -$1,867 cycle +$233 [-$3,440…-$2,149] · 2% credit | 84% surv 81% | +$8,207 SAFE cap gain +$30,007 |
| budget: banked $2,100 debit $1,867 (89% used) → whole cycle still +$233 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,426/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $89.5 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.36/sh now → $2.38 mid-life (likely $2.55–$3.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,251 simulated challenges: the $90 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 14, at $91 (overshoots $1.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$90 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$0.64/sh | +$1,280 cycle +$3,180 [+$784…+$1,432] · 99% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$10,127 NOT cap gain +$11,673 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$96 | 27 Nov 2026 | 42d left | +$0.48/sh | +$957 cycle +$2,857 [-$232…+$1,063] · 63% credit | 76% surv 69% | +$1,223 SAFE cap gain +$23,023 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$96 | 20 Nov 2026 | 35d left | +$0.15/sh | +$307 cycle +$2,207 [-$886…+$350] · 35% credit | 76% surv 70% | +$749 SAFE cap gain +$22,549 |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$90 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$0.01/sh | +$19 cycle +$1,919 [-$744…+$59] · 26% credit | 68% surv 57% | -$9,338 NOT cap gain +$12,462 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$100 | 20 Nov 2026 | 35d left | -$0.92/sh | -$1,844 cycle +$56 [-$3,448…-$1,964] · 4% credit | 84% surv 81% | +$9,081 SAFE cap gain +$30,881 |
| budget: banked $1,900 debit $1,844 (97% used) → whole cycle still +$56 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,496/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $94.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.86/sh now → $2.02 mid-life (likely $1.47–$2.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 172 simulated challenges: the $94 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 7, at $95 (overshoots $1.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$94 | 23 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.63/sh | +$1,256 cycle +$1,556 [+$1,269…+$2,348] · 98% credit | 66% surv 52% | -$2,299 NOT cap gain +$19,501 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$96 | 23 Oct 2026 | 10d left | +$0.02/sh | +$42 cycle +$342 [-$171…+$992] · 69% credit | 70% surv 60% | -$408 NOT cap gain +$21,392 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$105 | 20 Nov 2026 | 38d left | +$0.03/sh | +$57 cycle +$357 [-$372…+$1,251] · 62% credit | 82% surv 78% | +$18,863 SAFE cap gain +$40,663 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $91.5 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.53/sh now → $2.50 mid-life (likely $2.39–$3.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 791 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 14, at $93 (overshoots $1.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (20 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$92 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$0.67/sh | +$1,342 cycle +$2,542 [+$962…+$1,695] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$6,658 NOT cap gain +$15,142 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$98 | 27 Nov 2026 | 42d left | +$0.59/sh | +$1,178 cycle +$2,378 [+$233…+$1,612] · 84% credit | 75% surv 69% | +$4,937 SAFE cap gain +$26,737 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$98 | 20 Nov 2026 | 35d left | +$0.24/sh | +$489 cycle +$1,689 [-$451…+$852] · 54% credit | 76% surv 70% | +$4,415 SAFE cap gain +$26,215 |
| reaches SS ✓ |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$92 | 30 Oct 2026 | 14d left | +$0.03/sh | +$57 cycle +$1,257 [-$550…+$306] · 39% credit | 68% surv 57% | -$5,882 NOT cap gain +$15,918 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$100 | 20 Nov 2026 | 35d left | -$0.50/sh | -$991 cycle +$209 [-$2,144…-$699] · 15% credit | 80% surv 76% | +$9,234 SAFE cap gain +$31,034 |
| budget: banked $1,200 debit $991 (83% used) → whole cycle still +$209 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $3,430/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $89C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$1,075 73% T:56% flat -$20,725 · cap -$12,599 ⚠ locks $11,628 if capped | = ★ | $89C Nov 06 '26 (28d) +$3,125 68% T:68% flat -$18,675 · cap -$10,549 -5pp surv for +14d | $89C Nov 20 '26 (42d) +$5,175 65% T:73% flat -$16,625 · cap -$8,499 -2pp surv for +14d | $89.5C Nov 27 '26 (49d) +$5,575 66% T:72% flat -$16,225 · cap -$7,083 +1pp surv for +7d · +29% better outcome vs ≤20d · +35d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $89.5C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$875.00 75% T:52% flat -$20,925 · cap -$11,783 ⚠ locks $10,806 if capped at trip: ~+$1.80/sh | = ★ | $91.5C Oct 30 '26 (21d) +$1,075 78% T:46% flat -$20,725 · cap -$7,520 +3pp surv for +7d | $94C Nov 20 '26 (42d) +$2,575 78% T:47% flat -$19,225 · cap -$941.40 -0pp surv for +21d | $95C Nov 27 '26 (49d) +$2,525 78% T:45% flat -$19,275 · cap +$1,040 +1pp surv for +7d |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $94C Oct 16 '26 (7d) -$925.00 95% T:10% flat -$22,725 · cap -$4,441 ⚠ locks $3,171 if capped at trip: ~-$0.27/sh | = ★ | $102C Oct 30 '26 (21d) -$875.00 95% T:10% flat -$22,675 · cap +$11,861 ≈ same touch for +14d | = | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $91.5C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$125.00 82% T:37% flat -$21,675 · cap -$8,470 ⚠ locks $7,457 if capped at trip: ~+$1.06/sh | = ★ | $97C Nov 06 '26 (28d) +$125.00 88% T:25% flat -$21,675 · cap +$2,703 cap +$5.5 for +14d | $100C Nov 13 '26 (35d) +$225.00 89% T:22% flat -$21,575 · cap +$8,898 cap +$3 for +7d | $105C Nov 27 '26 (49d) +$475.00 91% T:18% flat -$21,325 · cap +$19,305 cap +$5 for +14d |
ALL CANDIDATES (134) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 +3 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
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✓ SKIP UNCAPPED
IREN · 20c · Neville:0865
MARKET
STOCK$35.95Neville: 20centry ~$58.25 · -38.3%
CURRENT CCNO CCuncapped · gear mode
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$56.50-57.2% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$58.03-61.4% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-50,260
CLOSE P/L$-50,260
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT—
STOCK @ CAP—
CALLS NET 90D$1.7k/mokeep 17% · 39 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$45.00C / -$65.00P / +$21.00PLC / SP / HP
REASON
No CC sold. Position is riding uncapped (gear mode). LC delta=0.61, theta=$-0.015/d. Cheapest directional exposure you own. Weekly gate: PULLBACK. Reference 20W MA (bounce target) at $44.56. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
CC SUGGESTIONS · UNCAPPED → CC SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d)
⚠ No CC-safe candidate. The CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so any new CC would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe option per expiry is shown below for reference (tagged NOT CC-safe); the rest are collapsed.
New CC suggestions
⚠ NO VIABLE ABOVE-SS PICK: Stock ($35.95) is below Safe Strike ($56.50) and no candidate in this table reaches SS within the delta band. Selling ANY of the below-SS strikes would cap the fortress below breakeven. Consider: (1) ride uncapped until stock recovers, (2) rebuild with a lower LC, or (3) close and re-enter at current levels. Below-SS rows shown for reference only.
ALL CANDIDATES (3) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 · CC CANDIDATES
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⚠ 35 more near-money roll(s) hidden — all below the CC-Safe Strike, each would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe few are shown (tagged NOT CC-safe) for reference.
✓ SKIP UNCAPPED
IREN · 20c · RetireInc:7291
MARKET
STOCK$35.95RetireInc: 20centry ~$65.00 · -44.7%
CURRENT CCNO CCuncapped · gear mode
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$63.43-76.4% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$66.45-84.8% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-68,530
CLOSE P/L$-68,530
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT—
STOCK @ CAP—
CALLS NET 90D$1.7k/mokeep 17% · 39 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$50.00C / -$70.00P / +$23.00PLC / SP / HP
REASON
No CC sold. Position is riding uncapped (gear mode). LC delta=0.57, theta=$-0.015/d. Cheapest directional exposure you own. Weekly gate: PULLBACK. Reference 20W MA (bounce target) at $44.56. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
CC SUGGESTIONS · UNCAPPED → CC SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d)
⚠ No CC-safe candidate. The CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so any new CC would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe option per expiry is shown below for reference (tagged NOT CC-safe); the rest are collapsed.
New CC suggestions
⚠ NO VIABLE ABOVE-SS PICK: Stock ($35.95) is below Safe Strike ($63.43) and no candidate in this table reaches SS within the delta band. Selling ANY of the below-SS strikes would cap the fortress below breakeven. Consider: (1) ride uncapped until stock recovers, (2) rebuild with a lower LC, or (3) close and re-enter at current levels. Below-SS rows shown for reference only.
ALL CANDIDATES (3) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 · CC CANDIDATES
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⚠ 35 more near-money roll(s) hidden — all below the CC-Safe Strike, each would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe few are shown (tagged NOT CC-safe) for reference.
✓ SKIP UNCAPPED
MU · 5c · Main:1299
MARKET
STOCK$1047.89Main: 5centry ~$1050.00 · -0.2%
CURRENT CCNO CCuncapped · gear mode
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$1028.60+1.8% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$1039.69+0.8% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$5,065
CLOSE P/L$5,065
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT—
STOCK @ CAP—
CALLS NET 90D$14.1k/mokeep 80% · 21 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$880.00C / -$1,010.00P / +$340.00PLC / SP / HP
REASON
No CC sold. Position is riding uncapped (gear mode). LC delta=0.76, theta=$-0.260/d. Cheapest directional exposure you own. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $1148.90. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
CC SUGGESTIONS · UNCAPPED → CC SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 12 '26 (3d) · Oct 14 '26 (5d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 19 '26 (10d) · Oct 21 '26 (12d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d)
New CC suggestions
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤20d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $1080C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$10,800 65% T:72% flat +$15,865 · cap +$33,485 ✓ CC-safe | = ★ | = ★ |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $1160C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$3,400 87% T:27% flat +$8,465 · cap +$69,990 ✓ CC-safe | = ★ | = ★ |
ALL CANDIDATES (178) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 12 '26 / Oct 14 '26 / Oct 16 '26 +3 · CC CANDIDATES
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✓ SKIP UNCAPPED
GLXY · uncapped slice · 25c · Main:1299BBC
⚠️
EARNINGS IN YOUR SELL WINDOW
2026-10-20 (Tue)
in 11 days
Any fresh CC you sell that expires on or after 2026-10-20 carries the earnings gap. Prefer an expiry before the print, or size down.
MARKET
STOCK$20.35Main: 25centry ~$37.00 · -45.0%
CURRENT CCNO CCuncapped · gear mode
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$39.71-95.1% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$35.43-74.1% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-31,338
CLOSE P/L$-31,338
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT—
STOCK @ CAP—
CALLS NET 90D$3.4k/mokeep 69% · 8 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$37.50C / -$37.50P / +$17.50PLC / SP / HP
REASON
No CC sold. Position is riding uncapped (gear mode). LC delta=0.46, theta=$-0.009/d. Cheapest directional exposure you own. Weekly gate: PULLBACK. Reference 20W MA (bounce target) at $24.89. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
CC SUGGESTIONS · UNCAPPED → CC SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d)
⚠ No CC-safe candidate. The CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so any new CC would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe option per expiry is shown below for reference (tagged NOT CC-safe); the rest are collapsed.
New CC suggestions
⚠ NO VIABLE ABOVE-SS PICK: Stock ($20.35) is below Safe Strike ($39.71) and no candidate in this table reaches SS within the delta band. Selling ANY of the below-SS strikes would cap the fortress below breakeven. Consider: (1) ride uncapped until stock recovers, (2) rebuild with a lower LC, or (3) close and re-enter at current levels. Below-SS rows shown for reference only.
ALL CANDIDATES (3) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 · CC CANDIDATES
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⚠ 22 more near-money roll(s) hidden — all below the CC-Safe Strike, each would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe few are shown (tagged NOT CC-safe) for reference.
✓ SKIP UNCAPPED
CRCL · 5c · Neville:0865
MARKET
STOCK$82.20Neville: 5centry ~$90.85 · -9.5%
CURRENT CCNO CCuncapped · gear mode
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$87.00-5.8% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$92.42-12.4% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-5,345
CLOSE P/L$-5,345
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT—
STOCK @ CAP—
CALLS NET 90D$690/mokeep 95% · 2 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$45.00C / -$65.00P / +$40.00PLC / SP / HP
REASON
No CC sold. Position is riding uncapped (gear mode). LC delta=0.88, theta=$-0.015/d. Cheapest directional exposure you own. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $106.86. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
CC SUGGESTIONS · UNCAPPED → CC SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d)
New CC suggestions
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤20d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $92C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$552.50 82% T:36% flat -$4,793 · cap +$439.81 ✓ CC-safe | = ★ | = ★ |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $99C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$222.50 92% T:16% flat -$5,123 · cap +$3,847 ✓ CC-safe | = ★ | = ★ |
ALL CANDIDATES (24) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 · CC CANDIDATES
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⚠ 21 more near-money roll(s) hidden — all below the CC-Safe Strike, each would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe few are shown (tagged NOT CC-safe) for reference.
✓ SKIP UNCAPPED
AMD · 2c · Main:1299
MARKET
STOCK$624.30Main: 2centry ~$656.00 · -4.8%
CURRENT CCNO CCuncapped · gear mode
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$649.20-4.0% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$660.43-5.8% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-6,805
CLOSE P/L$-6,805
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT—
STOCK @ CAP—
CALLS NET 90D$3.2k/mokeep 95% · 6 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$410.00C / -$550.00P / +$470.00PLC / SP / HP
REASON
No CC sold. Position is riding uncapped (gear mode). LC delta=0.86, theta=$-0.096/d. Cheapest directional exposure you own. Weekly gate: OVERBOUGHT. Reference Upper BB + 1σ (extension cap) at $674.47. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
CC SUGGESTIONS · UNCAPPED → CC SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 09 '26 (0d) · Oct 12 '26 (3d) · Oct 14 '26 (5d) · Oct 16 '26 (7d) · Oct 19 '26 (10d) · Oct 21 '26 (12d) · Oct 23 '26 (14d)
New CC suggestions
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤20d |
|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $652.5C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$1,795 71% T:60% flat -$5,010 · cap +$639.66 ✓ CC-safe | = ★ | = ★ |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $685C Oct 23 '26 (14d) +$720.00 86% T:29% flat -$6,085 · cap +$6,077 ✓ CC-safe | = ★ | = ★ |
ALL CANDIDATES (91) · Oct 09 '26 / Oct 12 '26 / Oct 14 '26 / Oct 16 '26 +3 · CC CANDIDATES
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⚠ 101 more near-money roll(s) hidden — all below the CC-Safe Strike, each would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe few are shown (tagged NOT CC-safe) for reference.
⏸ EXCLUDED BY CSV: 8 fortress row(s)
These carry the Skip; directive in the CSV Comments column (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, not fetched, no routing verdict, no roll or CC suggestions. This is NOT the router's SKIP verdict — these rows were never routed at all. Remove the tag to bring them back; an explicit --tickers request also overrides it.
| TICKER | ACCOUNT | CT | LC | LC EXPIRY | WHY EXCLUDED |
|---|
| BMNR | Joint:1782 | 150c | $23.00 | Jan 21 '28 (469d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR | Main:1299 | 50c | $25.00 | Jan 21 '28 (469d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR | Main:1299 | 75c | $23.00 | Jan 21 '28 (469d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv · also tagged: Half Max |
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25c | $17.00 | Jan 21 '28 (469d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10c | $45.00 | Jan 21 '28 (469d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50c | $75.00 | Dec 17 '27 (434d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv |
| MARA | Main:1299 | 400c | $13.00 | Jan 21 '28 (469d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv |
| MARA | RetireInc:7291 | 500c | $40.00 | Jan 21 '28 (469d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv |
Safe Strike = max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2)
Decisions driven by CC status + LC runway + sigma survival + proactive rolls (v1.2)
Read-only — review each action in TWS before trading
python3 fortress_rebuild.py --help