FORTRESS REBUILDLifecycle Manager v1.3
⚠️
Earnings conflicts · 7
income being sold or held into an upcoming report · click to jump
PORTFOLIO ROLLUP33 fortress(es)
CAPITAL LOCKED$1,472,985
CLOSE P/L−$938,203
STOCK FLAT−$891,493
STOCK @ CAP−$489,025
CC INC/MO$124,830
CALLS NET 90D /MO+$67,960
🌾 PORTFOLIO HARVEST · 15 roll-down(s) · +$13,096 net credit available · ⚠ 18 stretch · +$19,014
Every row is a fortress whose call is safely dead, sitting on a
SKIP / WAIT decision, where rolling the call DOWN to a closer
strike re-loads income while it stays likely to expire worthless.
Ranked by dollars. Click any row to jump to its roll-down menu.
The binding gate is touch < 40%, which
on this book means every row also has survival ≥
80%. Survival and touch move together, so the
separate survival ≥ 70% floor never binds
while touch is priceable; it is the failsafe for candidates the
first-passage engine cannot price.
Tenors are mixed (2-39d),
so the total is a worklist, not a monthly rate. Every figure is
net of commission at
$0.75/contract/leg x 2 legs
(measured from live fills), which is
$189.00 off $13,284 gross across these rows. Option prices are leg mids, which
is a fair estimate for a roll because it executes as one COMBO order
whose market is far tighter than the two legs' spreads added
together. 22 position(s) had closer, richer strikes held back by the touch ceiling; each one names its best held-back strike on its own card.
| POSITION | CC NOW | ROLL DOWN TO | NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN Main:1299 | $200.00C | $195.00C Oct 23 '26 · 11d | +$3,650 | 81% | 39% |
| MU Main:1299 | $1,075.00C | $1,025.00C Oct 14 '26 · 2d | +$1,873 | 81% | 38% |
| IREN Main:1299 | $49.00C | $45.00C Nov 20 '26 · 39d | +$930.00 | 83% | 37% |
| IREN Joint:1782 | $49.00C | $45.00C Nov 20 '26 · 39d | +$930.00 | 83% | 37% |
| QCOM RetireInc:7291 | $220.00C | $195.00C Nov 06 '26 · 25d | +$882.50 | 81% | 39% |
| DELL Main:1299 | $650.00C | $640.00C Oct 30 '26 · 18d | +$865.50 | 82% | 37% |
| HOOD Joint:1782 | $120.00C | $115.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d | +$620.00 | 84% | 33% |
| SPCX Neville:0865 | $195.00C | $172.50C Oct 21 '26 · 9d | +$585.00 | 82% | 38% |
| CRCL Neville:0865 | $98.00C | $92.00C Oct 23 '26 · 11d | +$560.00 | 81% | 40% |
| NVDA Main:1299 | $250.00C | $235.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d | +$555.00 | 82% | 36% |
| SNDK Neville:0865 | $1,700.00C | $1,615.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d | +$413.50 | 81% | 39% |
| AMD Main:1299 | $665.00C | $622.50C Oct 16 '26 · 4d | +$399.00 | 81% | 38% |
| AMZN Joint:1782 | $277.50C | $270.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d | +$335.00 | 80% | 40% |
| INTC Neville:0865 | $114.00C | $107.00C Oct 14 '26 · 2d | +$277.50 | 84% | 31% |
| CRWV Neville:0865 | $100.00C | $86.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d | +$220.00 | 84% | 33% |
⚠ STRETCH · 18 roll-down(s) at touch
40-50%
· +$19,014
NOT part of the
+$13,096 above, and not a recommendation. These pay
more because each carries roughly a two-in-five chance of putting
this decision back in front of you before expiry, which is the one
thing a harvest is supposed to avoid. Calibration says to take those
odds at face value: in the two well-sampled IV bands the touch model
is honest (26% predicted vs 26% realized at IV≥75%, n=72). Your
call.
| POSITION | CC NOW | ROLL DOWN TO | NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN Main:1299 | $200.00C | $187.50C Oct 16 '26 · 4d | +$3,000 | 76% | 49% |
| MU Main:1299 | $1,075.00C | $1,020.00C Oct 14 '26 · 2d | +$2,310 | 78% | 45% |
| MSTR Joint:1782 | $200.00C | $190.00C Jan 15 '27 · 95d | +$2,160 | 78% | 48% |
| DELL Main:1299 | $650.00C | $625.00C Oct 30 '26 · 18d | +$1,863 | 77% | 48% |
| IREN Main:1299 | $49.00C | $43.00C Nov 20 '26 · 39d | +$1,640 | 79% | 47% |
| IREN Joint:1782 | $49.00C | $43.00C Nov 20 '26 · 39d | +$1,640 | 79% | 47% |
| QCOM RetireInc:7291 | $220.00C | $195.00C Nov 13 '26 · 32d | +$1,225 | 79% | 43% |
| HOOD Joint:1782 | $120.00C | $114.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d | +$830.00 | 80% | 40% |
| CRCL Neville:0865 | $98.00C | $91.00C Oct 23 '26 · 11d | +$670.00 | 78% | 45% |
| SNDK Neville:0865 | $1,700.00C | $1,595.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d | +$668.50 | 76% | 49% |
| AMD Main:1299 | $665.00C | $617.50C Oct 16 '26 · 4d | +$634.00 | 77% | 47% |
| NVDA Main:1299 | $250.00C | $232.50C Oct 14 '26 · 2d | +$445.00 | 79% | 42% |
| COIN Main:1299 | $205.00C | $200.00C Nov 06 '26 · 25d | +$408.00 | 77% | 49% |
| INTC Neville:0865 | $114.00C | $106.00C Oct 14 '26 · 2d | +$385.00 | 80% | 41% |
| GOOG Neville:0865 | $360.00C | $357.50C Oct 16 '26 · 4d | +$370.00 | 75% | 50% |
| CRWV Neville:0865 | $100.00C | $85.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d | +$302.50 | 80% | 41% |
| AMZN Joint:1782 | $277.50C | $267.50C Oct 14 '26 · 2d | +$252.50 | 78% | 44% |
| SPCX Neville:0865 | $195.00C | $167.50C Oct 14 '26 · 2d | +$210.00 | 79% | 42% |
BY UNDERLYING · 5 ticker(s) held more than once · tightest: GOOG fully capped at +1.9%
What this answers: if one of these names
rips, how much of the move do you actually keep? Each card below shows
ONE fortress; this shows the whole holding. Chips are the CC strikes in
the order a rally hits them: distance from spot, contracts capped
there, survival, nearest expiry, and how many contracts are still
free above that rung. A ticker whose first cap is 6% away with
0c free above is a different position from one whose first cap is 28%
away with three quarters of the size still uncapped, and no per-card
view can tell you which you own. Reference only: no recommendation,
no new model, built from metrics the cards already computed.
COIN $178.41 · 2 fortresses · 33c total · first cap at $200.00 (+12.1%) · CC inc/mo $17,098
$200.00C +12.1% · 25c · 87% · 11d · 8c free above$205.00C +14.9% · 8c · 79% · 32d · 0c free above
GOOG $348.47 · 3 fortresses · 25c total · first cap at $355.00 (+1.9%) · CC inc/mo $40,219
$355.00C +1.9% · 20c · 71% · 4d · 5c free above$360.00C +3.3% · 5c · 83% · 4d · 0c free above
IREN $36.05 · 4 fortresses · 80c total · first cap at $49.00 (+35.9%) · CC inc/mo $2,631
$49.00C +35.9% · 40c · 89% · 39d · 40c free above40c UNCAPPED · open-ended upside
MSTR $154.08 · 2 fortresses · 14c total · first cap at $170.00 (+10.3%) · CC inc/mo $4,974
$170.00C +10.3% · 4c · 71% · 39d · 10c free above$200.00C +29.8% · 10c · 82% · 95d · 0c free above
MU $989.48 · 2 fortresses · 7c total · first cap at $1,075.00 (+8.6%) · CC inc/mo $8,925
$1,075.00C +8.6% · 5c · 96% · 2d · 2c free above2c UNCAPPED · open-ended upside
Summary · sorted by urgency · click any header to sort
| TICKER · CT | STOCK | CURRENT CC | CC RISK | OUTLOOK | CLOSE P/L | STOCK FLAT | STOCK @ CAP | ROLL-DOWN OPTIONSALLSAFESTRETCHSHORTERLINEAGE | DECISION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IGV · 12c Main:1299LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $85.00+33.2% $744/mo 90d |
$113.25▲ +0.6% CC-SS $88.16 |
$115.00 OTM 1.5% Oct 23 '26 (11d) |
63%hist 74% T:75%hist 100% |
near strike pre-load the roll order at $115.00 · at cap $28,720 roll early · thin room ($1.50) |
+$24,648 ⚑ 86% of cap $4.1k left this cycle calls netted ~$744/mo (90d) |
+$26,760 | +$28,720 @ $115.00 |
— | ⚠ WAIT (MARGINAL) ✓ → CC NEAR ATM LOW SIGMA |
| HIMS · 15c Main:1299LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $20.00+57.9% $1.2k/mo 90d |
$31.58▲ +1.9% CC-SS $19.04 |
$32.50 OTM 2.9% Oct 16 '26 (4d) |
64%hist 74% T:73%hist 100% |
near strike pre-load the roll order at $32.50 · at cap $23,003 free roll gone above $34.50 (~1.2d) |
+$20,310 ⚑ 88% of cap $2.7k left this cycle calls netted ~$1.2k/mo (90d) |
+$21,473 | +$23,003 @ $32.50 |
— | ⚠ WAIT (MARGINAL) ✓ → CC NEAR ATM LOW SIGMA |
| GOOG · 5c earn 16d Joint:1782LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $335.00+4.0% $6.7k/mo 90d |
$348.47▲ +0.2% CC-SS $349.50 |
$355.00 OTM 1.9% Oct 16 '26 (4d) |
71%hist 77% T:58%hist 49% |
near strike pre-load the roll order at $355.00 · at cap $2,181 roll early · thin room ($4) |
−$1,420 | −$237.50 | +$2,181 @ $355.00 |
— | ○ WAIT ✓ → CC NEAR ATM BORDERLINE |
| GOOG · 15c earn 16d Neville:0865LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $335.00+4.0% $6.7k/mo 90d |
$348.47▲ +0.2% CC-SS $346.41 |
$355.00 OTM 1.9% Oct 16 '26 (4d) |
71%hist 77% T:58%hist 49% |
near strike pre-load the roll order at $355.00 · at cap $11,593 roll early · thin room ($4) |
−$510.00 | +$3,038 | +$11,593 @ $355.00 |
— | ○ WAIT ✓ → CC NEAR ATM BORDERLINE |
| MSTR · 4c ⚠ earn 17d RetireInc:7291 ENTRY $163.00-5.5% $1.5k/mo 90d |
$154.08▼ -0.3% CC-SS $163.91 |
$170.00 OTM 10.3% Nov 20 '26 (39d) |
71%hist 77% T:61%hist 54% |
challenge profitable at cap $3,175 · roll at trip |
−$7,536 | −$4,436 | +$3,175 @ $170.00 |
— | ⚠ WAIT (MARGINAL) ✓ → CC OTM HIGH TOUCH |
| GOOG · 5c earn 16d Neville:0865LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $369.00-5.6% $6.7k/mo 90d |
$348.47▲ +0.2% CC-SS $385.45 |
$360.00 OTM 3.3% Oct 16 '26 (4d) |
83%hist 85% T:35%hist 37% |
safe let theta work roll early · thin room ($4) |
−$16,332 | −$15,700 | −$10,974 @ $360.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $11,232 loss if capped |
○ WAIT → CC NEAR ATM |
| AAPL · 5c earn 21d RetireInc:7291 ENTRY $335.50+1.6% $1.1k/mo 90d |
$340.92▲ +1.2% CC-SS $337.50 |
$350.00 OTM 2.7% Oct 16 '26 (4d) |
83%hist 85% T:34%hist 37% |
safe let theta work roll early · thin room ($4) |
+$1,568 | +$2,093 | +$7,498 @ $350.00 |
— | ○ WAIT → CC NEAR ATM |
| GLD · 10c Main:1299 ENTRY $465.00-17.7% $677/mo 90d |
$382.52▼ -0.6% CC-SS $470.18 |
$409.00 OTM 6.9% Dec 18 '26 (67d) |
78%hist 77% T:46%hist 41% |
normal par for the strike · no action |
−$123,545 | −$117,470 | −$77,015 @ $409.00 |
— | ✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
| SPY · 12c Neville:0865LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $695.00+12.1% $1.5k/mo 90d |
$778.93▲ +0.1% CC-SS $701.98 |
$785.00 OTM 0.8% Oct 15 '26 (3d) |
79%hist 77% T:42%hist 41% |
near strike pre-load the roll order at $785.00 · at cap $81,798 free roll gone above $793 (~1.5d) |
+$74,256 ⚑ 91% of cap $7.5k left this cycle calls netted ~$1.5k/mo (90d) |
+$75,546 | +$81,798 @ $785.00 |
— | ✓ SKIP ✓ → CC EXPIRING WORTHLESS |
| COIN · 8c ⚠ earn 17d Main:1299 ENTRY $211.00-15.4% $6.2k/mo 90d |
$178.41▼ -2.5% CC-SS $213.67 |
$205.00 OTM 14.9% Nov 13 '26 (32d) |
79%hist 77% T:44%hist 41% |
normal par for the strike · no action |
−$37,316 | −$32,896 | −$7,100 @ $205.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $8,050 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
| MSTR · 10c ⚠ earn 17d Joint:1782LEAPBUILDERBBC ENTRY $395.00-61.0% $1.5k/mo 90d |
$154.08▼ -0.3% CC-SS $184.23 |
$200.00 OTM 29.8% Jan 15 '27 (95d) |
82%hist 85% T:39%hist 37% |
safe let theta work |
−$20,875 | −$12,675 | +$14,571 @ $200.00 |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
|
| RKLB · 6c RetireInc:7291 ENTRY $148.00-54.3% $2.4k/mo 90d |
$67.58▼ -1.1% CC-SS $148.59 |
$73.00 OTM 8.0% Oct 16 '26 (4d) |
85%hist 85% T:30%hist 37% |
safe let theta work free roll gone above $76.50 (~1.1d) |
−$51,978 | −$51,696 | −$48,213 @ $73.00 |
— | ✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
| DELL · 3c Main:1299 ENTRY $567.00+1.2% $4.0k/mo 90d |
$573.70▼ -2.3% CC-SS $567.38 |
$650.00 OTM 13.3% Oct 30 '26 (18d) |
86%hist 85% T:30%hist 29% |
safe let theta work |
+$49.50 | +$2,375 | +$26,152 @ $650.00 |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
|
| COIN · 25c earn 17d Main:1299LEAPBUILDERBBC ENTRY $330.00-45.9% $6.2k/mo 90d |
$178.41▼ -2.5% CC-SS $380.96 |
$200.00 OTM 12.1% Oct 23 '26 (11d) |
87%hist 85% T:27%hist 29% |
safe let theta work |
−$206,313 | −$201,563 | −$189,441 @ $200.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $184,991 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
| IREN · 20c ⚠ earn 24d Main:1299 ENTRY $45.00-19.9% $1.7k/mo 90d |
$36.05▲ +3.1% CC-SS $49.23 |
$49.00 OTM 35.9% Nov 20 '26 (39d) |
89%hist 85% T:24%hist 29% |
safe let theta work |
−$25,610 | −$23,900 | −$1,469 @ $49.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $6,410 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
| IREN · 20c ⚠ earn 24d Joint:1782 ENTRY $45.00-19.9% $1.7k/mo 90d |
$36.05▲ +3.1% CC-SS $49.23 |
$49.00 OTM 35.9% Nov 20 '26 (39d) |
89%hist 85% T:24%hist 29% |
safe let theta work |
−$25,610 | −$23,900 | −$1,469 @ $49.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $6,410 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
| CRCL · 5c Neville:0865 ENTRY $90.85-8.4% $690/mo 90d |
$83.23▼ -2.2% CC-SS $90.94 |
$98.00 OTM 17.7% Oct 23 '26 (11d) |
90%hist 95% T:20%hist 29% |
safe let theta work |
−$4,370 | −$4,013 | +$3,859 @ $98.00 |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
|
| AMD · 2c Main:1299 ENTRY $656.00-9.3% $3.0k/mo 90d |
$595.07▼ -2.0% CC-SS $660.87 |
$665.00 OTM 11.8% Oct 23 '26 (11d) |
91%hist 95% T:18%hist 19% |
safe let theta work |
−$13,313 | −$12,840 | +$993.29 @ $665.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $6,723 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
| QCOM · 5c ⚠ earn 23d RetireInc:7291 ENTRY $228.00-23.7% $913/mo 90d |
$173.93▼ -1.1% CC-SS $227.30 |
$220.00 OTM 26.5% Nov 20 '26 (39d) |
92%hist 95% T:17%hist 19% |
safe let theta work |
−$28,818 | −$28,012 | −$3,055 @ $220.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $15,385 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
| HOOD · 10c earn 15d Joint:1782 ENTRY $119.00-9.0% $1.9k/mo 90d |
$108.28▼ -1.0% CC-SS $119.63 |
$120.00 OTM 10.8% Oct 16 '26 (4d) |
94%hist 95% T:12%hist 19% |
safe let theta work |
−$11,595 | −$11,325 | +$386.45 @ $120.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $3,834 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
| AMZN · 5c earn 17d Joint:1782 ENTRY $269.00-2.3% $2.9k/mo 90d |
$262.79▲ +0.1% CC-SS $271.11 |
$277.50 OTM 5.6% Oct 16 '26 (4d) |
94%hist 95% T:12%hist 19% |
safe let theta work |
−$4,637 | −$4,492 | +$3,739 @ $277.50 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $135.00 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
| SNDK · 1c earn 17d Neville:0865 ENTRY $1,636.00-7.0% $4.1k/mo 90d |
$1520.96▼ -3.8% CC-SS $1,628.77 |
$1700.00 OTM 11.8% Oct 16 '26 (4d) |
94%hist 95% T:12%hist 19% |
safe let theta work |
−$11,666 | −$11,296 | +$7,805 @ $1,700.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $669.00 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
| SPCX · 5c Neville:0865LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $178.00-8.9% $1.8k/mo 90d |
$162.18▲ +0.2% CC-SS $189.46 |
$195.00 OTM 20.2% Oct 30 '26 (18d) |
95%hist 95% T:10%hist 19% |
safe let theta work |
−$15,407 | −$15,137 | +$3,035 @ $195.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $8,812 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
| NVDA · 10c Main:1299LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $228.00-0.0% $1.6k/mo 90d |
$227.98▼ -0.6% CC-SS $230.47 |
$250.00 OTM 9.7% Oct 23 '26 (11d) |
96%hist 95% T:8%hist 6% |
safe let theta work |
−$1,700 | −$1,450 | +$16,057 @ $250.00 |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
|
| MU · 5c Main:1299 ENTRY $1,050.00-5.8% $14.2k/mo 90d |
$989.48▼ -3.8% CC-SS $1,039.76 |
$1075.00 OTM 8.6% Oct 14 '26 (2d) |
96%hist 95% T:8%hist 6% |
safe let theta work |
−$27,755 | −$27,160 | +$20,119 @ $1,075.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $5,519 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → CC EXPIRING WORTHLESS |
| CRWV · 5c Neville:0865 ENTRY $128.00-37.5% $602/mo 90d |
$79.98▼ -2.9% CC-SS $128.44 |
$100.00 OTM 25.0% Oct 23 '26 (11d) |
97%hist 95% T:7%hist 6% |
safe let theta work |
−$25,735 | −$25,638 | −$14,663 @ $100.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $22,150 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → CC OTM |
| INTC · 5c earn 17d Neville:0865 ENTRY $116.50-12.5% $930/mo 90d |
$101.93▼ -2.5% CC-SS $115.24 |
$114.00 OTM 11.8% Oct 14 '26 (2d) |
97%hist 95% T:6%hist 6% |
safe let theta work |
−$7,210 | −$7,158 | −$532.21 @ $114.00 |
✗ NOT CC-safe · locks in a $4,094 loss if capped |
✓ SKIP → CC EXPIRING WORTHLESS |
| IREN · 20c Neville:0865 ENTRY $58.25-38.1% $1.7k/mo 90d |
$36.05▲ +3.1% CC-SS $57.94 |
— — |
NO CC | — | −$49,890 | −$49,890 | — | — | ✓ SKIP → UNCAPPED |
| APP · 1c RetireInc:7291 ENTRY $601.00-53.2% $1.0k/mo 90d |
$281.55▲ +1.4% CC-SS $611.59 |
— — |
NO CC | — | −$35,440 | −$35,440 | — | — | ✓ SKIP → UNCAPPED |
| IREN · 20c RetireInc:7291 ENTRY $65.00-44.5% $1.7k/mo 90d |
$36.05▲ +3.1% CC-SS $66.41 |
— — |
NO CC | — | −$68,300 | −$68,300 | — | — | ✓ SKIP → UNCAPPED |
| COPX · 20c Joint:1782LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $93.00-8.3% $2.1k/mo 90d |
$85.30▼ -0.6% CC-SS $96.13 |
— — |
NO CC | — | −$21,800 | −$21,800 | — | — | ✓ SKIP → UNCAPPED |
| GLXY · 125c ⚠ earn 8d Main:1299LEAPBUILDERBBC ENTRY $37.00-45.7% $4.4k/mo 90d |
$20.09▼ -1.2% CC-SS $35.77 |
— — |
NO CC | — | −$162,938 | −$162,938 | — | — | ✓ SKIP → UNCAPPED |
| MU · 2c Neville:0865 ENTRY $1,235.00-19.9% $14.2k/mo 90d |
$989.48▼ -3.8% CC-SS $1,228.05 |
— — |
NO CC | — | −$51,414 | −$51,414 | — | — | ✓ SKIP → UNCAPPED |
CALIBRATION · predicted vs realized (474 of 586 resolved, since 2026-07-03)
| PRED SURV BUCKET | N | PREDICTED | REALIZED OTM | GAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 26 | 51% | 73% | +22pp |
| 60-70% | 34 | 67% | 74% | +7pp |
| 70-80% | 94 | 76% | 77% | +1pp |
| 80-90% | 195 | 85% | 85% | -1pp |
| 90-100% | 125 | 94% | 95% | +2pp |
Touch odds: predicted 36% vs realized 37% (n=473, 459/473 from daily highs (exact); the rest from spot samples, which undercount intraday touches).
Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.49x (W29) to 1.40x (W32) over 11 weeks; last week 0.67x. The line above is the average of those weeks, not a forecast for the next one.
Same forecasts, split by the position's own
IV. The single gap above is an average of opposite signals:
the model is close to calibrated on the high-IV names that carry most
of this book's risk, and conservative only on the quiet ones. Reading
the book-level number as "sell closer everywhere" would borrow a quiet
stock's safety margin and spend it on the most volatile position.
Split by IV rather than by ticker because IV is what actually drives
the error, and because per-ticker is unusable here (31 tickers over
474 resolutions, median n=3). Display only: no gate and no
correction reads this.
| IV BAND | N | PRED SURV | REALIZED OTM | GAP | TOUCH P→R | BREACHES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IV < 45% | 113 | 81% | 81% | -0pp | 39% → 50% | 22 |
| IV 45-75% | 125 | 81% | 81% | +0pp | 40% → 38% | 24 |
| IV ≥ 75% | 236 | 84% | 88% | +4pp | 32% → 29% | 28 |
MEASURED, NOT ARMED · the gaps above are recorded but are not correcting survival or touch yet. Factors arm only once the graded sample has seen varied tape: ≥30 contracts, ≥6 distinct expiry weeks, ≥60 days of calendar span, ≥10 actual breaches. That gate exists because implied vol sits structurally above realized (the variance risk premium IS why selling calls pays), so a pass over one quiet or one falling stretch will always claim the model is too pessimistic and beg it to sell closer. Obeying that would strip the margin exactly when vol returns.
⚠ WAIT (MARGINAL) CC NEAR ATM LOW SIGMA IGV · 12c · Main:1299 LEAPS-ONLY
⏱ NEAR STRIKE · PRE-LOAD ROLL ORDER If it crosses $115.00: roll to the ROUTED pick: $121.00 Nov 27 '26 (46d) · at trip ~+$0.82/sh. Pre-load a conditional order in TWS at $115.00 now so it fires on nights you are not watching. A cross is a payday here: $28,720 at the cap.
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Roll early: only $1.50 of room past the strike (~0.7 typical days). One normal day can jump it, so roll on the approach, do not wait for the cross
ACT
before $115
on the approach · the window past the strike is too short
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤30d)
up to ~$118
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$116.50
$1.50 of room · ~0.7 typical days
$113.25 now
$115 strike
$116.50 free roll gone
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤30d): stock at $115 → up to $118 · stock at $116 → up to $117 · above $116.50 → capped below the stock
Other tenor budgets: ≤45d gone above ~$117.50
MARKET
STOCK$113.25Main: 12centry ~$85.00 · +33.2%
CURRENT CC$115.00Oct 23 '26 · 11d · mark 1.76 (1.51 / 2.01)
CC STATUSOTM 1.5%63% survT:75%hist 74%hist 100%
0.33σ · extrinsic 1.76
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$96.50+14.8% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$88.16+22.2% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$26,760
CC BUYBACK-$2,112
CLOSE P/L$24,648
⚑ 86% of cap
$4.1k left this cycle
calls netted ~$744/mo (90d)
⚑ 86% of cap
$4.1k left this cycle
calls netted ~$744/mo (90d)
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$26,760
STOCK @ $115.00$28,720
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.93
CC INC/MO$5,760
CALLS NET 90D$744/mokeep 66% · 4 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$70.00C / -$115.00CLEAPS-only · LC / CC
REASON
CC $115.00 is 1.5% OTM but only 63% survival. Proactive roll available: Roll to $121.00 Nov 27 '26 (46d) for $+0.38/sh credit ($450.00 total). New position: 76% survival. Improvement: +13% survival. Weekly gate: EXTENDED. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $115.86. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $118.00C Nov 13 '26 (32d) · +$3/sh room · net +$756.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $140.00C Mar 19 '27 (158d) · +$25/sh room · net +$588.00
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL SUGGESTIONS
⚠ WAIT MARGINAL · advisory only · see action-oriented rolls above
Expiries scanned · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $115.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 11d · cap now $28,720 · spot $113
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ ROUTED | roll to 12× | $121.00C Nov 27 '26 · 46d ✓ CC-safe | $2.13 | 0.31 | 76% T:50% | +$450.00 | $27,210 | $35,889 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$385.71/mo of added tenor vs $5,760/mo run rate at trip: ~+$0.82/sh |
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~18% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 12× | $130.00C Nov 13 '26 · 32d ✓ CC-safe | $0.40 | 0.07 | 93% T:14% | $-1,632 | $25,128 | $43,885 | at trip: ~-$0.98/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $117.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 25); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.40/sh now → $3.11 mid-life (likely $3.74–$4.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,775 simulated challenges: the $117 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 25, at $118 (overshoots $1.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$118 | 20 Nov 2026 | 26d left | +$0.18/sh | +$213 cycle +$2,517 [-$520…-$47] · 23% credit | 67% surv 55% |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$117 | 13 Nov 2026 | 20d left | -$0.26/sh | -$307 cycle +$1,997 [-$981…-$535] · 9% credit | 65% surv 51% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$124 | 20 Nov 2026 | 26d left | -$1.74/sh | -$2,088 cycle +$216 [-$3,158…-$2,514] | 82% surv 78% |
| budget: banked $2,304 debit $2,088 (91% used) → whole cycle still +$216 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $1,900/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | ||||||
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $116.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 25); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.36/sh now → $3.09 mid-life (likely $3.94–$4.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 2,009 simulated challenges: the $116 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 25, at $117 (overshoots $1.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$117 | 20 Nov 2026 | 26d left | +$0.21/sh | +$257 cycle +$2,861 [-$520…-$128] · 18% credit | 67% surv 55% |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$116 | 13 Nov 2026 | 20d left | -$0.22/sh | -$264 cycle +$2,340 [-$980…-$609] · 6% credit | 65% surv 51% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$124 | 27 Nov 2026 | 34d left | -$2.01/sh | -$2,416 cycle +$188 [-$3,867…-$3,126] | 82% surv 79% |
| budget: banked $2,604 debit $2,416 (93% used) → whole cycle still +$188 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $1,136/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | ||||||
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $117C Nov 06 '26 (25d) +$642.00 67% T:68% flat +$27,402 · cap +$31,601 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$1.30/sh | — | = ★ | $117C Nov 13 '26 (32d) +$1,194 66% T:71% flat +$27,954 · cap +$32,153 -1pp surv for +7d | $118C Nov 27 '26 (46d) +$1,638 67% T:67% flat +$28,398 · cap +$33,717 +2pp surv for +14d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $116C Nov 06 '26 (25d) +$1,080 63% T:76% flat +$27,840 · cap +$30,919 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$1.73/sh | — | = ★ | = ★ | $117C Nov 27 '26 (46d) +$1,998 64% T:74% flat +$28,758 · cap +$32,957 +1pp surv for +21d |
ALL CANDIDATES (61) · Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 / Nov 20 '26 +1 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
⚠ WAIT (MARGINAL) CC NEAR ATM LOW SIGMA HIMS · 15c · Main:1299
⏱ NEAR STRIKE · PRE-LOAD ROLL ORDER If it crosses $32.50: roll to the ROUTED pick: $43.00 Nov 20 '26 (39d) · at trip ~+$0.22/sh. Pre-load a conditional order in TWS at $32.50 now so it fires on nights you are not watching. A cross is a payday here: $23,003 at the cap.
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Get ready: pre-load the $32.50 roll order. If it crosses, roll that session; a free roll still reaches $37
ACT AT
$32.50
hold below it · roll that session · pre-load in TWS
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤30d)
up to ~$37
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$34.50
$2 of room · ~1.2 typical days
$31.58 now
$32.50 strike
$34.50 free roll gone
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤30d): stock at $32.50 → up to $37 · stock at $33 → up to $36 · stock at $34 → up to $35 · above $34.50 → capped below the stock
Other tenor budgets: ≤15d gone above ~$33
Later expiries cross earnings and are not counted (never sell income into a print), so the longest free roll here is 25d.
MARKET
STOCK$31.58Main: 15centry ~$20.00 · +57.9%
CURRENT CC$32.50Oct 16 '26 · 4d · mark 0.77 (0.69 / 0.86)
CC STATUSOTM 2.9%64% survT:73%hist 74%hist 100%
0.37σ · extrinsic 0.77
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$17.47+44.7% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$19.04+39.7% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$21,473
CC BUYBACK-$1,162
CLOSE P/L$20,310
⚑ 88% of cap
$2.7k left this cycle
calls netted ~$1.2k/mo (90d)
⚑ 88% of cap
$2.7k left this cycle
calls netted ~$1.2k/mo (90d)
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$21,473
STOCK @ $32.50$23,003
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$164/pt+0.11δ/sh
CC INC/MO$8,719
CALLS NET 90D$1.2k/mokeep 85% · 8 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$10.00C / -$20.00P / +$5.00P / -$32.50CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $32.50 is 2.9% OTM but only 64% survival. Proactive roll available: Roll to $43.00 Nov 20 '26 (39d) for $+0.12/sh credit ($187.50 total). New position: 88% survival. Improvement: +24% survival. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $36.60. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $34.00C Oct 23 '26 (11d) · +$2/sh room · net +$30.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $55.00C Feb 19 '27 (130d) · +$22/sh room · net +$660.00
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL SUGGESTIONS
⚠ WAIT MARGINAL · advisory only · see action-oriented rolls above
Expiries scanned · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $32.50C · Oct 16 '26 · 4d · cap now $23,003 · spot $31.58
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ ROUTED ▸ if challenged | roll to 15× | $43.00C Nov 20 '26 · 39d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 09 ✓ CC-safe | $0.90 | 0.18 | 88% T:26% | +$187.50 | $21,660 | $40,664 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$160.71/mo of added tenor vs $4,982/mo run rate at trip: ~+$0.22/sh |
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~17% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $47.00C Nov 20 '26 | roll to 15× | $39.00C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✓ CC-safe | $0.16 | 0.10 | 93% T:14% | $-922.50 | $20,550 | $32,897 | at trip: ~-$0.54/sh |
ROUTED · $43.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 19 of 39); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.03/sh now → $3.57 mid-life (likely $2.82–$4.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 616 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 24 of 39, at $44 (overshoots $1.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$43 | 27 Nov 2026 | 26d left | -$1.39/sh | -$2,083 cycle -$838 [-$2,754…-$1,304] · 4% credit | 64% surv 54% | +$39,336 SAFE cap gain +$17,864 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $33.5 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.26/sh now → $1.60 mid-life (likely $1.97–$2.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,786 simulated challenges: the $34 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 18, at $34 (overshoots $0.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$36 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$0.52/sh | +$773 cycle +$2,603 [+$253…+$571] · 91% credit | 74% surv 66% | +$31,335 SAFE cap gain +$9,862 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.21/sh | +$315 cycle +$2,145 [-$85…+$172] · 57% credit | 66% surv 53% | +$26,862 SAFE cap gain +$5,389 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$34 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.18/sh | +$265 cycle +$2,095 [-$85…+$133] · 55% credit | 69% surv 56% | +$27,502 SAFE cap gain +$6,030 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$38 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$0.03/sh | +$38 cycle +$1,868 [-$581…-$208] · 13% credit | 79% surv 74% | +$33,853 SAFE cap gain +$12,380 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$45 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | -$1.01/sh | -$1,510 cycle +$320 [-$2,497…-$1,900] | 91% surv 90% | +$43,522 SAFE cap gain +$22,049 |
| budget: banked $1,830 debit $1,510 (82% used) → whole cycle still +$320 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $889/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $34.5 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.33/sh now → $1.65 mid-life (likely $1.82–$2.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,393 simulated challenges: the $34 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 18, at $35 (overshoots $0.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$37 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$0.51/sh | +$760 cycle +$2,185 [+$273…+$693] · 92% credit | 74% surv 66% | +$32,546 SAFE cap gain +$11,074 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$34 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.18/sh | +$277 cycle +$1,702 [-$94…+$245] · 57% credit | 66% surv 53% | +$28,062 SAFE cap gain +$6,590 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$35 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.15/sh | +$229 cycle +$1,654 [-$101…+$192] · 53% credit | 69% surv 56% | +$28,702 SAFE cap gain +$7,230 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$39 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$0.02/sh | +$23 cycle +$1,448 [-$568…-$97] · 20% credit | 79% surv 74% | +$35,049 SAFE cap gain +$13,577 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$44 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | -$0.85/sh | -$1,276 cycle +$149 [-$2,149…-$1,472] · 0% credit | 88% surv 86% | +$41,761 SAFE cap gain +$20,289 |
| budget: banked $1,425 debit $1,276 (90% used) → whole cycle still +$149 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $1,194/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $38.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 19 of 39); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $4.45/sh now → $3.15 mid-life (likely $3.11–$4.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,174 simulated challenges: the $38 strike is typically first touched on day 18 of 39, at $39 (overshoots $0.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$38 | 27 Nov 2026 | 26d left | -$1.05/sh | -$1,578 cycle +$702 [-$2,468…-$1,471] · 3% credit | 64% surv 54% | +$32,842 SAFE cap gain +$11,370 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$40 | 27 Nov 2026 | 26d left | -$1.47/sh | -$2,200 cycle +$80 [-$3,045…-$2,200] · 0% credit | 73% surv 66% | +$36,124 SAFE cap gain +$14,652 |
| budget: banked $2,280 debit $2,200 (97% used) → whole cycle still +$80 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $2,914/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $33.5C Oct 30 '26 (18d) +$825.00 67% T:69% flat +$22,298 · cap +$25,493 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$0.85/sh | $33C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$457.50 66% T:71% flat +$21,930 · cap +$24,293 | $34C Nov 06 '26 (25d) +$1,410 68% T:69% flat +$22,883 · cap +$26,910 +2pp surv for +14d | $34C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$2,685 66% T:76% flat +$24,158 · cap +$28,185 -2pp surv for +14d | $34C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$3,495 65% T:77% flat +$24,968 · cap +$28,995 -0pp surv for +7d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $34.5C Oct 30 '26 (18d) +$420.00 73% T:56% flat +$21,893 · cap +$26,752 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$0.50/sh | $33C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$457.50 66% T:71% flat +$21,930 · cap +$24,293 | $36C Nov 06 '26 (25d) +$547.50 77% T:49% flat +$22,020 · cap +$29,375 +11pp surv for +14d | $39C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$960.00 81% T:42% flat +$22,433 · cap +$34,780 +4pp surv for +14d | $38C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$1,230 79% T:47% flat +$22,703 · cap +$33,386 -2pp surv for +0d · +5pp surv vs ≤20d · +21d |
ALL CANDIDATES (70) · Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +2 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
○ WAIT CC NEAR ATM BORDERLINE GOOG · 5c · Joint:1782 LEAPS-ONLY
⏱ NEAR STRIKE · PRE-LOAD ROLL ORDER If it crosses $355.00: roll to the ROUTED pick: $395.00 Nov 20 '26 (39d) · at trip ~+$0.58/sh. Pre-load a conditional order in TWS at $355.00 now so it fires on nights you are not watching. A cross is a payday here: $2,181 at the cap.
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Roll early: only $4 of room past the strike (~0.6 typical days). One normal day can jump it, so roll on the approach, do not wait for the cross
ACT
before $355
on the approach · the window past the strike is too short
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤15d)
up to ~$362.50
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$359
$4 of room · ~0.6 typical days
$348.47 now
$355 strike
$359 free roll gone
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤15d): stock at $355 → up to $362.50 · stock at $356 → up to $360 · stock at $358 → up to $360 · above $359 → capped below the stock
Later expiries cross earnings and are not counted (never sell income into a print), so the longest free roll here is 11d.
MARKET
STOCK$348.47Joint: 5centry ~$335.00 · +4.0%
CURRENT CC$355.00Oct 16 '26 · 4d · mark 2.37 (2.28 / 2.45)
CC STATUSOTM 1.9%71% survT:58%hist 77%hist 49%
0.56σ · extrinsic 2.37
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$392.50-12.6% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$349.50-0.3% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-237.50
CC BUYBACK-$1,182
CLOSE P/L$-1,420
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-237.50
STOCK @ $355.00$2,181
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.74
CC INC/MO$8,869
CALLS NET 90D$6.7k/mokeep 89% · 14 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$310.00C / -$355.00CLEAPS-only · LC / CC
REASON
CC $355.00 is 1.9% OTM (71% survival — borderline). Touch odds 58% before expiry. Theta -$0.56/d with 4d left is doing the work. Monitor; if stock breaks $355.00 or sigma drops below 0.50, roll options appear. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-237.50 · at cap $2,181. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $369.08. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $362.50C Oct 23 '26 (11d) · +$8/sh room · net +$342.50✓ DEEPEST FREE · $445.00C Mar 19 '27 (158d) · +$90/sh room · net +$2,485
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
⏳ WAIT · advisory only · see fortress block above
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $355.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 4d · cap now $2,181 · spot $348
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ ROUTED ▸ if challenged | roll to 5× | $395.00C Nov 20 '26 · 39d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe | $3.50 | 0.17 | 88% T:26% | +$567.50 | $330.00 | $17,566 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$486.43/mo of added tenor vs $5,068/mo run rate at trip: ~+$0.58/sh |
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~17% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $410.00C Nov 20 '26 | roll to 5× | $380.00C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✓ CC-safe | $0.67 | 0.05 | 93% T:13% | $-850.00 | $-1,087 | $10,592 | at trip: ~-$2.13/sh |
ROUTED · $395.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 19 of 39); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $20.43/sh now → $14.45 mid-life (likely $11.70–$18.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 655 simulated challenges: the $395 strike is typically first touched on day 24 of 39, at $399 (overshoots $4.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$395 | 27 Nov 2026 | 26d left | -$2.98/sh | -$1,492 cycle +$183 [-$2,144…-$711] · 11% credit | 65% surv 52% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$397 | 27 Nov 2026 | 26d left | -$3.16/sh | -$1,582 cycle +$93 [-$2,219…-$861] · 9% credit | 66% surv 54% |
| budget: banked $1,675 debit $1,582 (94% used) → whole cycle still +$93 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $6,510/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | ||||||
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $360.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $15.08/sh now → $10.67 mid-life (likely $13.16–$16.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,772 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 18, at $364 (overshoots $4.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$362 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$3.78/sh | +$1,891 cycle +$6,116 [+$787…+$1,555] · 99% credit | 69% surv 54% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$367 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$1.43/sh | +$716 cycle +$4,941 [-$510…+$290] · 35% credit | 72% surv 59% |
| SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | ||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$360 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.61/sh | +$306 cycle +$4,531 [-$540…+$29] · 26% credit | 67% surv 52% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$362 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.45/sh | +$224 cycle +$4,449 [-$548…-$37] · 23% credit | 69% surv 54% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$402 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | -$7.99/sh | -$3,996 cycle +$229 [-$6,304…-$4,954] | 90% surv 88% |
| budget: banked $4,225 debit $3,996 (95% used) → whole cycle still +$229 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,338/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | ||||||
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $375.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $15.71/sh now → $11.11 mid-life (likely $10.58–$15.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 964 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 18, at $380 (overshoots $4.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$377 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$3.15/sh | +$1,577 cycle +$3,702 [+$820…+$2,245] · 99% credit | 69% surv 54% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$382 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$0.80/sh | +$400 cycle +$2,525 [-$532…+$977] · 51% credit | 72% surv 59% |
| SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | ||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$375 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.08/sh | +$38 cycle +$2,163 [-$586…+$493] · 41% credit | 67% surv 51% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$392 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | -$3.08/sh | -$1,539 cycle +$586 [-$2,765…-$1,152] · 9% credit | 77% surv 70% |
| budget: banked $2,125 debit $1,539 (72% used) → whole cycle still +$586 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,017/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | ||||||
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $410.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $17.18/sh now → $12.15 mid-life (likely $8.90–$14.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 146 simulated challenges: the $410 strike is typically first touched on day 14 of 18, at $416 (overshoots $5.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$412 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$1.43/sh | +$716 cycle +$1,036 [+$932…+$2,418] · 97% credit | 69% surv 53% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$412 | 13 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.22/sh | +$109 cycle +$429 [+$69…+$1,545] · 77% credit | 67% surv 53% |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$410 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | -$1.35/sh | -$677 cycle -$357 [-$538…+$663] · 47% credit | 67% surv 51% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $385.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $16.13/sh now → $11.41 mid-life (likely $9.56–$14.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 617 simulated challenges: the $385 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 18, at $390 (overshoots $4.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$387 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$2.70/sh | +$1,349 cycle +$2,664 [+$897…+$2,506] · 97% credit | 69% surv 54% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$392 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$0.34/sh | +$170 cycle +$1,485 [-$442…+$1,180] · 58% credit | 72% surv 59% |
| SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | ||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$385 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | -$0.31/sh | -$154 cycle +$1,161 [-$551…+$688] · 48% credit | 67% surv 51% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$397 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | -$1.76/sh | -$880 cycle +$435 [-$1,601…+$17] · 26% credit | 74% surv 65% |
| budget: banked $1,315 debit $880 (67% used) → whole cycle still +$435 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,824/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | ||||||
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $360C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$3,180 66% T:70% flat +$2,943 · cap +$7,214 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$6.74/sh | $357.5C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$1,018 68% T:65% flat +$780.00 · cap +$4,125 | $365C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$2,930 70% T:62% flat +$2,693 · cap +$8,816 +2pp surv for +14d | $365C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$4,093 68% T:67% flat +$3,855 · cap +$9,978 -2pp surv for +14d | $365C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$4,180 67% T:69% flat +$3,943 · cap +$10,066 -1pp surv for +7d · +36% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $375C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$1,068 81% T:39% flat +$830.00 · cap +$10,657 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$1.85/sh | $357.5C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$1,018 68% T:65% flat +$780.00 · cap +$4,125 | = ★ | $375C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$1,518 79% T:43% flat +$1,280 · cap +$11,107 -2pp surv for +7d | = |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $410C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn -$810.00 96% T:8% flat -$1,047 · cap +$21,745 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$2.39/sh | $380C Oct 23 '26 (11d) -$850.00 93% T:13% flat -$1,087 · cap +$10,592 | = ★ | $430C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn -$740.00 97% T:7% flat -$977.50 · cap +$29,223 -1pp touch for +21d | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $385C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$192.50 88% T:25% flat -$45.00 · cap +$13,487 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~-$0.12/sh | $365C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$37.50 80% T:41% flat -$200.00 · cap +$5,923 | $390C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$190.00 89% T:23% flat -$47.50 · cap +$15,336 cap +$25 for +14d | $405C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn $0 90% T:20% flat -$237.50 · cap +$20,703 cap +$15 for +14d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (79) · Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +2 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
○ WAIT CC NEAR ATM BORDERLINE GOOG · 15c · Neville:0865
⏱ NEAR STRIKE · PRE-LOAD ROLL ORDER If it crosses $355.00: roll to the ROUTED pick: $395.00 Nov 20 '26 (39d) · at trip ~+$0.58/sh. Pre-load a conditional order in TWS at $355.00 now so it fires on nights you are not watching. A cross is a payday here: $11,593 at the cap.
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Roll early: only $4 of room past the strike (~0.6 typical days). One normal day can jump it, so roll on the approach, do not wait for the cross
ACT
before $355
on the approach · the window past the strike is too short
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤15d)
up to ~$362.50
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$359
$4 of room · ~0.6 typical days
$348.47 now
$355 strike
$359 free roll gone
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤15d): stock at $355 → up to $362.50 · stock at $356 → up to $360 · stock at $358 → up to $360 · above $359 → capped below the stock
Later expiries cross earnings and are not counted (never sell income into a print), so the longest free roll here is 11d.
MARKET
STOCK$348.47Neville: 15centry ~$335.00 · +4.0%
CURRENT CC$355.00Oct 16 '26 · 4d · mark 2.37 (2.28 / 2.45)
CC STATUSOTM 1.9%71% survT:58%hist 77%hist 49%
0.56σ · extrinsic 2.37
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$373.00-7.0% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$346.41+0.6% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$3,038
CC BUYBACK-$3,548
CLOSE P/L$-510.00
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$3,038
STOCK @ $355.00$11,593
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.87
CC INC/MO$26,606
CALLS NET 90D$6.7k/mokeep 89% · 14 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$300.00C / -$345.00P / +$310.00P / -$355.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $355.00 is 1.9% OTM (71% survival — borderline). Touch odds 58% before expiry. Theta -$0.56/d with 4d left is doing the work. Monitor; if stock breaks $355.00 or sigma drops below 0.50, roll options appear. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $3,038 · at cap $11,593. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $369.08. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $362.50C Oct 23 '26 (11d) · +$8/sh room · net +$1,028✓ DEEPEST FREE · $445.00C Mar 19 '27 (158d) · +$90/sh room · net +$7,455
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
⏳ WAIT · advisory only · see fortress block above
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $355.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 4d · cap now $11,593 · spot $348
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ ROUTED ▸ if challenged | roll to 15× | $395.00C Nov 20 '26 · 39d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe | $3.50 | 0.17 | 88% T:26% | +$1,702 | $4,740 | $65,701 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$1,459/mo of added tenor vs $15,204/mo run rate at trip: ~+$0.58/sh |
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~17% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $410.00C Nov 20 '26 | roll to 15× | $380.00C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✓ CC-safe | $0.67 | 0.05 | 93% T:13% | $-2,550 | $487.50 | $41,797 | at trip: ~-$2.13/sh |
ROUTED · $395.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 19 of 39); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $20.43/sh now → $14.45 mid-life (likely $11.93–$18.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 655 simulated challenges: the $395 strike is typically first touched on day 23 of 39, at $399 (overshoots $4.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$395 | 27 Nov 2026 | 26d left | -$2.98/sh | -$4,477 cycle +$548 [-$6,471…-$2,291] · 11% credit | 65% surv 52% | +$61,822 SAFE cap gain +$58,785 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$397 | 27 Nov 2026 | 26d left | -$3.16/sh | -$4,747 cycle +$278 [-$6,703…-$2,725] · 9% credit | 66% surv 54% | +$63,692 SAFE cap gain +$60,655 |
| budget: banked $5,025 debit $4,747 (94% used) → whole cycle still +$278 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $19,529/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $360.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $15.08/sh now → $10.67 mid-life (likely $13.01–$16.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,826 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 18, at $364 (overshoots $4.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$362 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$3.78/sh | +$5,674 cycle +$18,349 [+$2,389…+$5,002] · 99% credit | 69% surv 54% | +$34,598 SAFE cap gain +$31,560 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$367 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$1.43/sh | +$2,149 cycle +$14,824 [-$1,506…+$1,108] · 37% credit | 72% surv 59% | +$37,739 SAFE cap gain +$34,702 |
| SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$360 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.61/sh | +$919 cycle +$13,594 [-$1,616…+$251] · 28% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$29,190 SAFE cap gain +$26,153 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$362 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.45/sh | +$671 cycle +$13,346 [-$1,636…+$42] · 26% credit | 69% surv 54% | +$30,965 SAFE cap gain +$27,928 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$402 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | -$7.99/sh | -$11,988 cycle +$687 [-$19,006…-$14,666] | 90% surv 88% | +$71,733 SAFE cap gain +$68,696 |
| budget: banked $12,675 debit $11,988 (95% used) → whole cycle still +$687 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $4,014/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $375.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $15.71/sh now → $11.11 mid-life (likely $10.92–$15.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,002 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 18, at $380 (overshoots $4.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$377 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$3.15/sh | +$4,731 cycle +$11,106 [+$2,314…+$6,402] · 98% credit | 69% surv 54% | +$47,529 SAFE cap gain +$44,491 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$382 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$0.80/sh | +$1,199 cycle +$7,574 [-$1,561…+$2,395] · 50% credit | 72% surv 59% | +$50,830 SAFE cap gain +$47,792 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$375 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.08/sh | +$113 cycle +$6,488 [-$1,786…+$1,240] · 38% credit | 67% surv 51% | +$42,152 SAFE cap gain +$39,114 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$392 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | -$3.08/sh | -$4,618 cycle +$1,757 [-$8,155…-$3,961] · 8% credit | 77% surv 70% | +$58,822 SAFE cap gain +$55,785 |
| budget: banked $6,375 debit $4,618 (72% used) → whole cycle still +$1,757 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $12,051/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $410.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $17.18/sh now → $12.15 mid-life (likely $8.37–$14.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 159 simulated challenges: the $410 strike is typically first touched on day 13 of 18, at $415 (overshoots $4.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$412 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$1.43/sh | +$2,149 cycle +$3,109 [+$2,111…+$7,837] · 94% credit | 69% surv 53% | +$88,287 SAFE cap gain +$85,249 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$412 | 13 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.22/sh | +$327 cycle +$1,287 [-$97…+$4,833] · 74% credit | 67% surv 53% | +$87,056 SAFE cap gain +$84,019 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$410 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | -$1.35/sh | -$2,031 cycle -$1,071 [-$2,107…+$2,383] · 47% credit | 67% surv 51% | +$83,124 SAFE cap gain +$80,086 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $385.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $16.13/sh now → $11.41 mid-life (likely $9.60–$15.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 572 simulated challenges: the $385 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 18, at $390 (overshoots $4.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (15 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$387 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$2.70/sh | +$4,048 cycle +$7,993 [+$2,704…+$7,390] · 98% credit | 69% surv 54% | +$58,131 SAFE cap gain +$55,093 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$392 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$0.34/sh | +$511 cycle +$4,456 [-$1,373…+$3,209] · 56% credit | 72% surv 59% | +$61,522 SAFE cap gain +$58,484 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$385 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | -$0.31/sh | -$462 cycle +$3,483 [-$1,676…+$1,938] · 45% credit | 67% surv 51% | +$52,794 SAFE cap gain +$49,756 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$397 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | -$1.76/sh | -$2,641 cycle +$1,304 [-$5,078…-$109] · 24% credit | 74% surv 65% | +$65,340 SAFE cap gain +$62,303 |
| budget: banked $3,945 debit $2,641 (67% used) → whole cycle still +$1,304 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $14,473/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $360C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$9,540 66% T:70% flat +$12,578 · cap +$27,684 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$6.74/sh | $357.5C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$3,052 68% T:65% flat +$6,090 · cap +$17,921 | $365C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$8,790 70% T:62% flat +$11,828 · cap +$33,484 +2pp surv for +14d | $365C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$12,278 68% T:67% flat +$15,315 · cap +$36,972 -2pp surv for +14d | $365C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$12,540 67% T:69% flat +$15,578 · cap +$37,234 -1pp surv for +7d · +29% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $375C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$3,202 81% T:39% flat +$6,240 · cap +$40,998 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$1.85/sh | $357.5C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$3,052 68% T:65% flat +$6,090 · cap +$17,921 | = ★ | $375C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$4,552 79% T:43% flat +$7,590 · cap +$42,348 -2pp surv for +7d | = |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $410C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn -$2,430 96% T:8% flat +$607.50 · cap +$81,221 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$2.39/sh | $380C Oct 23 '26 (11d) -$2,550 93% T:13% flat +$487.50 · cap +$41,797 | = ★ | $430C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn -$2,220 97% T:7% flat +$817.50 · cap +$107,634 -1pp touch for +21d | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $385C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$577.50 88% T:25% flat +$3,615 · cap +$51,475 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~-$0.12/sh | $365C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$112.50 80% T:41% flat +$3,150 · cap +$24,807 | $390C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$570.00 89% T:23% flat +$3,608 · cap +$58,018 cap +$25 for +14d | $405C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn $0 90% T:20% flat +$3,038 · cap +$77,100 cap +$15 for +14d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (79) · Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +2 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
⚠ WAIT (MARGINAL) CC OTM HIGH TOUCH MSTR · 4c · RetireInc:7291
⚠️
OPEN CC SPANS EARNINGS
2026-10-29 (Thu)
in 17 days
Your open $170.00 Nov 20 '26 CC is still live on the report date. Consider buying it back before 2026-10-29 to sidestep the gap, or confirm you want the exposure.
MARKET
STOCK$154.08RetireInc: 4centry ~$163.00 · -5.5%
CURRENT CC$170.00Nov 20 '26 · 39d · mark 7.75 (7.40 / 8.10)
CC STATUSOTM 10.3%71% survT:61%hist 77%hist 54%
0.57σ · extrinsic 7.75
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$161.00-4.5% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$163.91-6.4% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-4,436
CC BUYBACK-$3,100
CLOSE P/L$-7,536
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-4,436
STOCK @ $170.00$3,175
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$78/pt+0.20δ/sh
CC INC/MO$2,385
CALLS NET 90D$1.5k/mokeep 91% · 11 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$125.00C / -$185.00P / +$55.00P / -$170.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $170.00 is 10.3% OTM but only 71% survival. Proactive roll available: Roll to $175.00 Nov 27 '26 (46d) for $+0.40/sh credit ($160.00 total). New position: 75% survival. Improvement: +3% survival. Weekly gate: EXTENDED. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $171.86. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $185.00C Dec 18 '26 (67d) · +$15/sh room · net +$244.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $240.00C Mar 19 '27 (158d) · +$70/sh room · net +$464.00
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL SUGGESTIONS
⚠ WAIT MARGINAL · advisory only · see action-oriented rolls above
Expiries scanned · Nov 27 '26 (46d) · Dec 18 '26 (67d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $170.00C · Nov 20 '26 · 39d · cap now $3,175 · spot $154
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ ↗ ROUTED + FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) ▸ if challenged | roll to 4× | $175.00C Nov 27 '26 · 46d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe | $8.15 | 0.36 | 75% T:54% | +$160.00 | $-4,276 | $5,725 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$685.71/mo of added tenor vs $2,385/mo run rate at trip: ~+$3.30/sh |
ROUTED · $175.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 23 of 46); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $22.19/sh now → $15.71 mid-life (likely $16.54–$22.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.31/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,397 simulated challenges: the $175 strike is typically first touched on day 19 of 46, at $179 (overshoots $3.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$175 | 18 Dec 2026 | 44d left | -$0.40/sh | -$161 cycle +$2,799 [-$1,227…-$166] · 21% credit | 68% surv 55% | +$7,949 SAFE cap gain +$12,385 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$201 | 18 Dec 2026 | 44d left | -$6.61/sh | -$2,642 cycle +$318 [-$3,729…-$2,787] · 1% credit | 80% surv 75% | +$17,545 SAFE cap gain +$21,981 |
| budget: banked $2,960 debit $2,642 (89% used) → whole cycle still +$318 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $2,482/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $170.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 23 of 46); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $21.05/sh now → $14.91 mid-life (likely $17.34–$22.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,741 simulated challenges: the $170 strike is typically first touched on day 15 of 46, at $173 (overshoots $3.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$170 | 18 Dec 2026 | 44d left | -$0.37/sh | -$149 cycle +$2,851 [-$1,270…-$466] · 15% credit | 68% surv 55% | +$5,644 SAFE cap gain +$10,080 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$196 | 18 Dec 2026 | 44d left | -$6.62/sh | -$2,646 cycle +$354 [-$3,799…-$3,065] · 1% credit | 81% surv 76% | +$15,270 SAFE cap gain +$19,706 |
| budget: banked $3,000 debit $2,646 (88% used) → whole cycle still +$354 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $2,261/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $190.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 23 of 46); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $25.75/sh now → $18.23 mid-life (likely $16.03–$23.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$15.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 817 simulated challenges: the $190 strike is typically first touched on day 25 of 46, at $194 (overshoots $3.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (4 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$190 | 18 Dec 2026 | 44d left | -$0.50/sh | -$201 cycle +$1,019 [-$1,066…+$500] · 36% credit | 68% surv 55% | +$13,187 SAFE cap gain +$17,623 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$201 | 18 Dec 2026 | 44d left | -$1.76/sh | -$704 cycle +$516 [-$1,403…-$148] · 22% credit | 74% surv 63% | +$17,743 SAFE cap gain +$22,179 |
| budget: banked $1,220 debit $704 (58% used) → whole cycle still +$516 cash · rolled 4 ct earn ≈ $4,493/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤67d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $170C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$470.00 71% T:63% flat -$3,966 · cap +$3,645 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe | — | — | — | $170C Dec 18 '26 (67d) ⚠ earn +$1,760 69% T:69% flat -$2,676 · cap +$4,935 +83% better outcome vs ≤20d · +21d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $170C Dec 18 '26 (67d) ⚠ earn +$1,760 69% T:69% flat -$2,676 · cap +$4,935 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe | — | — | — | = ★ |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $190C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn -$1,010 84% T:34% flat -$5,446 · cap +$11,726 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$1.17/sh | — | — | — | $205C Dec 18 '26 (67d) ⚠ earn -$1,140 87% T:29% flat -$5,576 · cap +$18,767 |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $175C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$160.00 75% T:54% flat -$4,276 · cap +$5,725 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$3.30/sh | — | — | — | $185C Dec 18 '26 (67d) ⚠ earn +$250.00 78% T:48% flat -$4,186 · cap +$10,596 |
ALL CANDIDATES (39) · Nov 27 '26 / Dec 18 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
○ WAIT CC NEAR ATM GOOG · 5c · Neville:0865
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Roll early: only $4 of room past the strike (~0.5 typical days). One normal day can jump it, so roll on the approach, do not wait for the cross
ACT
before $360
on the approach · the window past the strike is too short
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤15d)
up to ~$365
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$364
$4 of room · ~0.5 typical days
$348.47 now
$360 strike
$364 free roll gone
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤15d): stock at $360 → up to $365 · stock at $361 → up to $365 · stock at $363 → up to $365 · above $364 → capped below the stock
Later expiries cross earnings and are not counted (never sell income into a print), so the longest free roll here is 11d.
Your current call already sits under the CC-safe floor $387.62, so rolls are not held to it: any higher strike is an improvement.
MARKET
STOCK$348.47Neville: 5centry ~$369.00 · -5.6%
CURRENT CC$360.00Oct 16 '26 · 4d · mark 1.27 (1.21 / 1.32)
CC STATUSOTM 3.3%83% survT:35%hist 85%hist 37%
0.95σ · extrinsic 1.27
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$398.00-14.2% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$385.45-10.6% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-15,700
CC BUYBACK-$632.50
CLOSE P/L$-16,332
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-15,700
STOCK @ $360.00$-10,974
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.82
CC INC/MO$4,744
CALLS NET 90D$6.7k/mokeep 89% · 14 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$340.00C / -$405.00P / +$360.00P / -$360.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $360.00 is 3.3% OTM (83% survival). Touch odds 35% before expiry. Monitor. If stock breaks $360.00, roll options appear below. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-15,700 · at cap $-10,974. ⚠ LC has 248d left. Plan rebuild within 3 months. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $369.08. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $367.50C Oct 23 '26 (11d) · +$8/sh room · net +$330.00 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $450.00C Jan 15 '27 (95d) · +$90/sh room · net +$475.00
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
⏳ WAIT · advisory only · see fortress block above
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $360.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 4d · cap now $-10,974 · spot $348
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~17% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe richer door past earnings: $410.00C Nov 20 '26 | roll to 5× | $380.00C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-2,487 if capped) | $0.67 | 0.05 | 93% T:13% | $-300.00 | $-16,000 | $-3,076 | ⚠ locks in $2,487 ($4.97/sh) loss if capped at trip: ~-$1.44/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $360.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $15.08/sh now → $10.67 mid-life (likely $13.16–$16.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,772 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 18, at $364 (overshoots $4.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$362 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$3.78/sh | +$1,891 cycle +$6,116 [+$787…+$1,555] · 99% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$6,339 NOT cap gain +$9,361 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$367 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$1.43/sh | +$716 cycle +$4,941 [-$510…+$290] · 35% credit | 72% surv 59% | -$5,345 NOT cap gain +$10,355 |
| SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$360 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.61/sh | +$306 cycle +$4,531 [-$540…+$29] · 26% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$7,796 NOT cap gain +$7,904 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$362 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.45/sh | +$224 cycle +$4,449 [-$548…-$37] · 23% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$7,229 NOT cap gain +$8,471 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$402 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | -$7.99/sh | -$3,996 cycle +$229 [-$6,304…-$4,954] | 90% surv 88% | +$6,204 SAFE cap gain +$21,904 |
| budget: banked $4,225 debit $3,996 (95% used) → whole cycle still +$229 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,338/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $375.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $15.71/sh now → $11.11 mid-life (likely $10.58–$15.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 964 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 18, at $380 (overshoots $4.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$377 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$3.15/sh | +$1,577 cycle +$3,702 [+$820…+$2,245] · 99% credit | 69% surv 54% | -$2,116 NOT cap gain +$13,584 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$382 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$0.80/sh | +$400 cycle +$2,525 [-$532…+$977] · 51% credit | 72% surv 59% | -$1,000 NOT cap gain +$14,700 |
| SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$375 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.08/sh | +$38 cycle +$2,163 [-$586…+$493] · 41% credit | 67% surv 51% | -$3,617 NOT cap gain +$12,083 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$392 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | -$3.08/sh | -$1,539 cycle +$586 [-$2,765…-$1,152] · 9% credit | 77% surv 70% | +$1,751 SAFE cap gain +$17,451 |
| budget: banked $2,125 debit $1,539 (72% used) → whole cycle still +$586 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,017/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $410.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $17.18/sh now → $12.15 mid-life (likely $8.90–$14.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 146 simulated challenges: the $410 strike is typically first touched on day 14 of 18, at $416 (overshoots $5.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$412 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$1.43/sh | +$716 cycle +$1,036 [+$932…+$2,418] · 97% credit | 69% surv 53% | +$11,920 SAFE cap gain +$27,620 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$412 | 13 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.22/sh | +$109 cycle +$429 [+$69…+$1,545] · 77% credit | 67% surv 53% | +$11,601 SAFE cap gain +$27,301 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$410 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | -$1.35/sh | -$677 cycle -$357 [-$538…+$663] · 47% credit | 67% surv 51% | +$10,354 SAFE cap gain +$26,054 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $395.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $16.55/sh now → $11.71 mid-life (likely $9.22–$14.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$10.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 350 simulated challenges: the $395 strike is typically first touched on day 12 of 18, at $400 (overshoots $4.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$397 | 13 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.85/sh | +$426 cycle +$1,181 [+$108…+$1,573] · 79% credit | 67% surv 54% | +$5,060 SAFE cap gain +$20,760 |
| SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$402 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | -$0.15/sh | -$73 cycle +$682 [-$402…+$1,199] · 61% credit | 72% surv 59% | +$6,657 SAFE cap gain +$22,357 |
| budget: banked $755 debit $73 (10% used) → whole cycle still +$682 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $5,780/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓ | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$395 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | -$0.71/sh | -$356 cycle +$399 [-$540…+$716] · 53% credit | 67% surv 51% | +$3,872 SAFE cap gain +$19,572 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $360C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$3,730 66% T:70% flat -$11,970 · cap -$7,244 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ⚠ locks $7,583 if capped | $360C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$1,168 72% T:56% flat -$14,532 · cap -$9,806 | $365C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$3,480 70% T:62% flat -$12,220 · cap -$5,444 -2pp surv for +14d | $365C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$4,642 68% T:67% flat -$11,058 · cap -$4,282 -2pp surv for +14d | $365C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$4,730 67% T:69% flat -$10,970 · cap -$4,194 -1pp surv for +7d · +16% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $375C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$1,618 81% T:39% flat -$14,082 · cap -$3,208 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ⚠ locks $3,170 if capped at trip: ~+$3.31/sh | $362.5C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$900.00 76% T:49% flat -$14,800 · cap -$9,049 | $380C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$1,118 84% T:32% flat -$14,582 · cap -$1,658 +8pp surv for +7d | $380C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$1,517 83% T:35% flat -$14,182 · cap -$1,258 -2pp surv for +7d | = |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $410C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn -$260.00 96% T:8% flat -$15,960 · cap +$9,261 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$2.06/sh | $380C Oct 23 '26 (11d) -$300.00 93% T:13% flat -$16,000 · cap -$3,076 | = ★ | $430C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn -$190.00 97% T:7% flat -$15,890 · cap +$17,529 -1pp touch for +21d | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $395C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$172.50 92% T:16% flat -$15,528 · cap +$3,545 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 28 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~-$0.71/sh | $370C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$162.50 86% T:29% flat -$15,538 · cap -$6,712 | $400C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$217.50 93% T:15% flat -$15,482 · cap +$5,640 cap +$30 for +14d | = | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (79) · Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +2 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $360.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 4d · cap now $-10,974 · spot $348
⚠ STRETCH · 1 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $370.00 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE | NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● $357.50 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-11,232 if capped) | Oct 16 '26 · 4d | $370.00 | 75% | 50% |
○ WAIT CC NEAR ATM AAPL · 5c · RetireInc:7291
✓ GREEKS RECOVERED (LC, SP, HP): IBKR initial fetch returned no modelGreeks for the above legs; retry pass resolved cleanly. Data is reliable.
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Roll early: only $4 of room past the strike (~0.7 typical days). One normal day can jump it, so roll on the approach, do not wait for the cross
ACT
before $350
on the approach · the window past the strike is too short
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤30d)
up to ~$357.50
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$354
$4 of room · ~0.7 typical days
$340.92 now
$350 strike
$354 free roll gone
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤30d): stock at $350 → up to $357.50 · stock at $351 → up to $355 · stock at $353 → up to $355 · above $354 → capped below the stock
Other tenor budgets: ≤15d gone above ~$352
Later expiries cross earnings and are not counted (never sell income into a print), so the longest free roll here is 18d.
MARKET
STOCK$340.92RetireInc: 5centry ~$335.50 · +1.6%
CURRENT CC$350.00Oct 16 '26 · 4d · mark 1.05 (1.02 / 1.08)
CC STATUSOTM 2.7%83% survT:34%hist 85%hist 37%
0.96σ · extrinsic 1.05
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$334.64+1.8% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$337.50+1.0% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$2,093
CC BUYBACK-$525.00
CLOSE P/L$1,568
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$2,093
STOCK @ $350.00$7,498
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$95/pt+0.19δ/sh
CC INC/MO$3,938
CALLS NET 90D$1.1k/mokeep 100% · 3 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$240.00C / -$330.00P / +$285.00P / -$350.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $350.00 is 2.7% OTM (83% survival). Touch odds 34% before expiry. Monitor. If stock breaks $350.00, roll options appear below. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $2,093 · at cap $7,498. Weekly gate: OVERBOUGHT. Reference Upper BB + 1σ (extension cap) at $353.86. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $360.00C Nov 06 '26 (25d) · +$10/sh room · net +$1,105✓ DEEPEST FREE · $440.00C Mar 19 '27 (158d) · +$90/sh room · net +$300.00
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
⏳ WAIT · advisory only · see fortress block above
Expiries scanned · Oct 12 '26 (0d) · Oct 14 '26 (2d) · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 19 '26 (7d) · Oct 21 '26 (9d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 26 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $350.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 4d · cap now $7,498 · spot $341
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~15% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $380.00C Nov 20 '26 | roll to 5× | $362.50C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✓ CC-safe | $0.43 | 0.07 | 94% T:12% | $-310.00 | $1,783 | $14,629 | at trip: ~-$1.28/sh |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~8% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 5× | $370.00C Oct 30 '26 · 18d ✓ CC-safe | $0.43 | 0.06 | 95% T:9% | $-312.50 | $1,780 | $19,091 | at trip: ~-$1.57/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $347.5 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $7.95/sh now → $5.62 mid-life (likely $6.83–$8.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,880 simulated challenges: the $348 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 18, at $350 (overshoots $2.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$348 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$2.59/sh | +$1,297 cycle +$3,472 [+$1,035…+$1,200] · 100% credit | 66% surv 51% | +$8,862 SAFE cap gain +$6,769 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$352 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.58/sh | +$289 cycle +$2,464 [-$49…+$157] · 67% credit | 71% surv 59% | +$10,260 SAFE cap gain +$8,168 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$357 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | +$1.29/sh | +$644 cycle +$2,819 [-$121…+$361] · 64% credit | 72% surv 64% | +$13,328 SAFE cap gain +$11,236 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$357 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$0.75/sh | +$373 cycle +$2,548 [-$260…+$132] · 37% credit | 75% surv 66% | +$13,131 SAFE cap gain +$11,039 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$377 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | -$4.12/sh | -$2,058 cycle +$117 [-$3,248…-$2,518] | 90% surv 89% | +$22,324 SAFE cap gain +$20,231 |
| budget: banked $2,175 debit $2,058 (95% used) → whole cycle still +$117 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $751/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $352.5 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.06/sh now → $5.70 mid-life (likely $6.12–$8.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,276 simulated challenges: the $352 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 18, at $355 (overshoots $2.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$352 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$2.46/sh | +$1,231 cycle +$2,626 [+$970…+$1,201] · 100% credit | 66% surv 51% | +$10,964 SAFE cap gain +$8,872 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$362 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | +$1.11/sh | +$557 cycle +$1,952 [-$140…+$494] · 62% credit | 73% surv 64% | +$15,390 SAFE cap gain +$13,298 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$357 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.43/sh | +$216 cycle +$1,611 [-$129…+$153] · 56% credit | 71% surv 59% | +$12,345 SAFE cap gain +$10,253 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$362 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$0.56/sh | +$281 cycle +$1,676 [-$305…+$226] · 42% credit | 75% surv 66% | +$15,187 SAFE cap gain +$13,095 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$372 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | -$2.54/sh | -$1,270 cycle +$125 [-$2,153…-$1,415] · 2% credit | 83% surv 80% | +$19,448 SAFE cap gain +$17,355 |
| budget: banked $1,395 debit $1,270 (91% used) → whole cycle still +$125 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,580/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $347.5C Oct 30 '26 (18d) +$1,750 66% T:70% flat +$3,843 · cap +$7,760 ✓ CC-safe | $350C Oct 26 '26 (14d) +$880.00 73% T:54% flat +$2,973 · cap +$8,378 | $350C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$2,638 66% T:70% flat +$4,730 · cap +$10,135 -7pp surv for +11d | $355C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$2,550 71% T:60% flat +$4,643 · cap +$13,024 +5pp surv for +14d | $355C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$2,938 69% T:65% flat +$5,030 · cap +$13,412 -2pp surv for +7d · +48% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $352.5C Oct 30 '26 (18d) +$947.50 76% T:50% flat +$3,040 · cap +$9,934 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$3.11/sh | $350C Oct 26 '26 (14d) +$880.00 73% T:54% flat +$2,973 · cap +$8,378 | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ |
ALL CANDIDATES (82) · Oct 19 '26 / Oct 21 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 26 '26 +5 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $350.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 4d · cap now $7,498 · spot $341
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 5× | $347.50C Oct 14 '26 · 2d ✓ CC-safe | $0.79 | 0.20 | 83% T:33% | $-127.50 | $1,965 | $5,882 | — |
ALL CANDIDATES (2) · Oct 12 '26 / Oct 14 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
loading...
✓ SKIP CC OTM GLD · 10c · Main:1299
MARKET
STOCK$382.52Main: 10centry ~$465.00 · -17.7%
CURRENT CC$409.00Dec 18 '26 · 67d · mark 6.08 (5.95 / 6.20)
CC STATUSOTM 6.9%78% survT:46%hist 77%hist 41%
0.76σ · extrinsic 6.08
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$456.00-19.2% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$470.18-22.9% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-117,470
CC BUYBACK-$6,075
CLOSE P/L$-123,545
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-117,470
STOCK @ $409.00$-77,015
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$528/pt+0.53δ/sh
CC INC/MO$2,720
CALLS NET 90D$677/mokeep 96% · 3 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$320.00C / -$450.00P / +$330.00P / -$409.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $409.00 is 6.9% OTM. Safe. Earning $6.08/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-117,470 · at cap $-77,015. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $418.20. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $425.00C Feb 19 '27 (130d) · +$16/sh room · net +$1,735 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $451.00C Mar 31 '27 (170d) · +$42/sh room · net +$135.00 · under CC-SS
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 12 '26 (0d) · Oct 13 '26 (1d) · Oct 14 '26 (2d) · Oct 15 '26 (3d) · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 19 '26 (7d) · Oct 20 '26 (8d) · Oct 21 '26 (9d) · Oct 22 '26 (10d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 26 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d) · Dec 18 '26 (67d) · Dec 31 '26 (80d) · Jan 15 '27 (95d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $409.00C · Dec 18 '26 · 67d · cap now $-77,015 · spot $383
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ ◆ BEST BALANCE + SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 10× | $470.00C Jan 15 '27 · 95d ✓ CC-safe | $1.50 | 0.07 | 95% T:10% | $-4,570 | $-122,040 | $11,610 | at trip: ~-$6.82/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $409.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 40 of 80); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $21.11/sh now → $14.93 mid-life (likely $14.58–$20.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,289 simulated challenges: the $409 strike is typically first touched on day 35 of 80, at $412 (overshoots $2.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$409 | 15 Jan 2027 | 55d left | +$2.24/sh | +$2,238 cycle +$9,288 [+$1,568…+$2,400] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$74,392 NOT cap gain +$43,078 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$411 | 15 Jan 2027 | 55d left | +$0.98/sh | +$976 cycle +$8,026 [+$232…+$1,090] · 91% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$72,087 NOT cap gain +$45,383 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$411 | 15 Jan 2027 | 55d left | +$0.98/sh | +$976 cycle +$8,026 [+$232…+$1,090] · 91% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$72,087 NOT cap gain +$45,383 |
| SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$431 | 15 Jan 2027 | 55d left | -$6.33/sh | -$6,326 cycle +$724 [-$7,403…-$6,385] · 0% credit | 79% surv 73% | -$51,185 NOT cap gain +$66,285 |
| budget: banked $7,050 debit $6,326 (90% used) → whole cycle still +$724 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,693/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $485.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 40 of 80); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $35.20/sh now → $24.91 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.73/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$24.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$485 | 15 Jan 2027 | 55d left | +$2.87/sh | +$2,873 cycle +$3,603 | 68% surv 53% | +$21,918 SAFE cap gain +$139,388 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$487 | 15 Jan 2027 | 55d left | +$1.55/sh | +$1,548 cycle +$2,278 | 68% surv 54% | +$23,669 SAFE cap gain +$141,139 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$487 | 15 Jan 2027 | 55d left | +$1.55/sh | +$1,548 cycle +$2,278 | 68% surv 54% | +$23,669 SAFE cap gain +$141,139 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$492 | 15 Jan 2027 | 55d left | -$0.73/sh | -$729 cycle +$1 | 70% surv 57% | +$27,548 SAFE cap gain +$145,018 |
| budget: banked $730 debit $729 (100% used) → whole cycle still +$1 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $13,187/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $413.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 40 of 80); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $21.77/sh now → $15.40 mid-life (likely $13.97–$20.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,114 simulated challenges: the $413 strike is typically first touched on day 39 of 80, at $416 (overshoots $2.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$413 | 15 Jan 2027 | 55d left | +$2.27/sh | +$2,270 cycle +$8,420 [+$1,636…+$2,660] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | -$69,513 NOT cap gain +$47,957 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$415 | 15 Jan 2027 | 55d left | +$1.00/sh | +$1,005 cycle +$7,155 [+$304…+$1,349] · 93% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$67,235 NOT cap gain +$50,235 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$415 | 15 Jan 2027 | 55d left | +$1.00/sh | +$1,005 cycle +$7,155 [+$304…+$1,349] · 93% credit | 68% surv 54% | -$67,235 NOT cap gain +$50,235 |
| SS $456 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$430 | 15 Jan 2027 | 55d left | -$4.75/sh | -$4,755 cycle +$1,395 [-$5,590…-$4,540] · 1% credit | 76% surv 68% | -$51,899 NOT cap gain +$65,571 |
| budget: banked $6,150 debit $4,755 (77% used) → whole cycle still +$1,395 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,805/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤95d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $409C Dec 31 '26 (80d) +$1,075 75% T:52% flat -$116,395 · cap -$75,940 ⚠ locks $76,011 if capped | — | — | — | $410C Jan 15 '27 (95d) +$2,275 75% T:52% flat -$115,195 · cap -$73,212 |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $485C Dec 31 '26 (80d) -$5,275 97% T:6% flat -$122,745 · cap +$33,821 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$8.07/sh | — | — | — | = ★ |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $413C Dec 31 '26 (80d) +$175.00 77% T:47% flat -$117,295 · cap -$70,728 ⚠ locks $71,195 if capped ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$5.30/sh | — | — | — | $420C Jan 15 '27 (95d) +$75.00 81% T:39% flat -$117,395 · cap -$60,134 |
ALL CANDIDATES (84) · Dec 31 '26 / Jan 15 '27 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $409.00C · Dec 18 '26 · 67d · cap now $-77,015 · spot $383
HARVEST Stock $382.52 fell below your $409.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 44 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $402.00 at +$1,675 (71% surv, T:60%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 10× | $403.00C Oct 22 '26 · 10d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-88,526 if capped) | $0.55 | 0.09 | 93% T:15% | $-5,520 | $-122,990 | $-91,701 | ⚠ locks in $88,526 ($88.53/sh) loss if capped |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 10× | $404.00C Oct 20 '26 · 8d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-87,206 if capped) | $0.38 | 0.06 | 95% T:10% | $-5,695 | $-123,165 | $-90,348 | ⚠ locks in $87,206 ($87.21/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 10× | $408.00C Nov 27 '26 · 46d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-79,480 if capped) | $3.90 | 0.23 | 81% T:39% | $-2,175 | $-119,645 | $-80,717 | ⚠ locks in $79,480 ($79.48/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (136) · Oct 12 '26 / Oct 13 '26 / Oct 14 '26 / Oct 15 '26 +12 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
loading...
⚠ STRETCH · 38 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $-123,260 · riskier, your call
loading...
✓ SKIP CC EXPIRING WORTHLESS SPY · 12c · Neville:0865 LEAPS-ONLY
⏱ NEAR STRIKE · PRE-LOAD ROLL ORDER If it crosses $785.00: roll to the ROUTED pick: $811.00 Nov 30 '26 (49d) · at trip ~+$1.98/sh. Pre-load a conditional order in TWS at $785.00 now so it fires on nights you are not watching. A cross is a payday here: $81,798 at the cap.
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Get ready: pre-load the $785 roll order. If it crosses, roll that session; a free roll still reaches $802
ACT AT
$785
hold below it · roll that session · pre-load in TWS
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤30d)
up to ~$802
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$793
$8 of room · ~1.5 typical days
$778.93 now
$785 strike
$793 free roll gone
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤30d): stock at $785 → up to $802 · stock at $788 → up to $799 · stock at $790 → up to $798 · above $793 → capped below the stock
Other tenor budgets: ≤15d gone above ~$789 · ≤45d gone above ~$797
MARKET
STOCK$778.93Neville: 12centry ~$695.00 · +12.1%
CURRENT CC$785.00Oct 15 '26 · 3d · mark 1.08 (1.07 / 1.08)
CC STATUSOTM 0.8%79% survT:42%hist 77%hist 41%
0.81σ · extrinsic 1.08
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$764.00+1.9% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$701.98+9.9% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$75,546
CC BUYBACK-$1,290
CLOSE P/L$74,256
⚑ 91% of cap
$7.5k left this cycle
calls netted ~$1.5k/mo (90d)
⚑ 91% of cap
$7.5k left this cycle
calls netted ~$1.5k/mo (90d)
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$75,546
STOCK @ $785.00$81,798
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.86
CC INC/MO$12,900
CALLS NET 90D$1.5k/mokeep 66% · 10 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$640.00C / -$785.00CLEAPS-only · LC / CC
REASON
CC $785.00 is 0.8% OTM with 3d left. Expiring worthless. Touch odds 42% before expiry. Next round: sell ~$800.00 CC (~3.51/sh ≈ $4,212 for 12 ct). Confirm strike/premium in TWS. Weekly gate: EXTENDED. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $788.46. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $790.00C Oct 30 '26 (18d) · +$5/sh room · net +$3,354✓ DEEPEST FREE · $905.00C Mar 31 '27 (170d) · +$120/sh room · net +$390.00
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 12 '26 (0d) · Oct 13 '26 (1d) · Oct 14 '26 (2d) · Oct 15 '26 (3d) · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 19 '26 (7d) · Oct 20 '26 (8d) · Oct 21 '26 (9d) · Oct 22 '26 (10d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 26 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d) · Nov 30 '26 (49d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $785.00C · Oct 15 '26 · 3d · cap now $81,798 · spot $779
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ ROUTED | roll to 12× | $811.00C Nov 30 '26 · 49d ✓ CC-safe | $3.46 | 0.20 | 85% T:31% | +$2,868 | $78,414 | $111,446 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$1,870/mo of added tenor vs $5,529/mo run rate at trip: ~+$1.98/sh |
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~17% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 12× | $825.00C Nov 30 '26 · 49d ✓ CC-safe | $1.38 | 0.10 | 93% T:14% | +$366.00 | $75,912 | $123,364 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$238.70/mo of added tenor vs $5,529/mo run rate at trip: ~-$0.24/sh |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~7% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 12× | $835.00C Nov 30 '26 · 49d ✓ CC-safe | $0.69 | 0.05 | 96% T:7% | $-456.00 | $75,090 | $132,842 | at trip: ~-$0.97/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $787.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $9.37/sh now → $6.62 mid-life (likely $7.87–$10.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,744 simulated challenges: the $787 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 18, at $790 (overshoots $2.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$787 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$2.48/sh | +$2,975 cycle +$9,035 [+$2,083…+$2,690] · 100% credit | 66% surv 51% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$800 | 30 Nov 2026 | 40d left | +$1.37/sh | +$1,639 cycle +$7,699 [-$323…+$1,007] · 63% credit | 76% surv 68% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$791 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.23/sh | +$279 cycle +$6,339 [-$974…-$166] · 19% credit | 69% surv 58% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$803 | 30 Nov 2026 | 40d left | +$0.11/sh | +$136 cycle +$6,196 [-$2,025…-$575] · 17% credit | 79% surv 71% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$821 | 30 Nov 2026 | 40d left | -$4.64/sh | -$5,573 cycle +$487 [-$8,951…-$6,759] | 91% surv 89% |
| budget: banked $6,060 debit $5,573 (92% used) → whole cycle still +$487 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $1,780/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | ||||||
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $786.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $9.35/sh now → $6.61 mid-life (likely $8.21–$10.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,844 simulated challenges: the $786 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 18, at $789 (overshoots $2.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (12 ct) | POP / surv of new CC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$786 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$2.51/sh | +$3,011 cycle +$9,599 [+$2,078…+$2,634] · 100% credit | 66% surv 51% |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$799 | 30 Nov 2026 | 40d left | +$1.42/sh | +$1,701 cycle +$8,289 [-$326…+$847] · 62% credit | 76% surv 68% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$790 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.26/sh | +$316 cycle +$6,904 [-$981…-$203] · 16% credit | 69% surv 58% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$802 | 30 Nov 2026 | 40d left | +$0.16/sh | +$196 cycle +$6,784 [-$2,045…-$750] · 13% credit | 78% surv 71% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$820 | 30 Nov 2026 | 40d left | -$4.61/sh | -$5,532 cycle +$1,056 [-$9,085…-$6,997] | 91% surv 89% |
| budget: banked $6,588 debit $5,532 (84% used) → whole cycle still +$1,056 cash · rolled 12 ct earn ≈ $1,804/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | ||||||
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $787C Oct 30 '26 (18d) +$4,782 67% T:67% flat +$80,328 · cap +$88,640 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$4.95/sh | $785C Oct 26 '26 (14d) +$3,372 67% T:67% flat +$78,918 · cap +$85,170 | $788C Nov 06 '26 (25d) +$6,840 65% T:70% flat +$82,386 · cap +$91,728 -1pp surv for +11d | $791C Nov 20 '26 (39d) +$9,144 66% T:69% flat +$84,690 · cap +$97,122 +1pp surv for +14d | $792C Nov 30 '26 (49d) +$10,506 66% T:69% flat +$86,052 · cap +$99,514 -0pp surv for +10d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $786C Oct 30 '26 (18d) +$5,310 65% T:71% flat +$80,856 · cap +$88,138 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$5.47/sh | $781C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$5,112 56% T:88% flat +$80,658 · cap +$82,790 | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ |
ALL CANDIDATES (398) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 19 '26 / Oct 20 '26 / Oct 21 '26 +9 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $785.00C · Oct 15 '26 · 3d · cap now $81,798 · spot $779
⚠ RE-STRIKE, NOT A HARVESTCurrent call is still live (delta 0.23, above the 0.20 harvest band): closing it costs $1.08/sh ($1,290 total). Every net credit below already nets that buyback; the price of the extra income is a LOWER cap.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ ◆ BEST BALANCE + SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 12× | $783.00C Oct 12 '26 · 0d ✓ CC-safe | $0.07 | 0.05 | 95% T:10% | $-1,212 | $74,334 | $78,526 | — |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 12× | $783.00C Oct 13 '26 · 1d ✓ CC-safe | $0.42 | 0.19 | 86% T:28% | $-780.00 | $74,766 | $78,958 | — |
ALL CANDIDATES (5) · Oct 12 '26 / Oct 13 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
loading...
⚠ STRETCH · 3 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $-558.00 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE | NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $784.00 ✓ CC-safe | Oct 14 '26 · 2d | $-270.00 | 80% | 41% |
| $784.00 ✓ CC-safe | Oct 15 '26 · 3d | $270.00 | 75% | 50% |
| $782.00 ✓ CC-safe | Oct 13 '26 · 1d | $-558.00 | 79% | 42% |
✓ SKIP CC OTM COIN · 8c · Main:1299
⚠️
OPEN CC SPANS EARNINGS
2026-10-29 (Thu)
in 17 days
Your open $205.00 Nov 13 '26 CC is still live on the report date. Consider buying it back before 2026-10-29 to sidestep the gap, or confirm you want the exposure.
MARKET
STOCK$178.41Main: 8centry ~$211.00 · -15.4%
CURRENT CC$205.00Nov 13 '26 · 32d · mark 5.53 (3.55 / 7.50)
CC STATUSOTM 14.9%79% survT:44%hist 77%hist 41%
0.81σ · extrinsic 5.53
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$210.90-18.2% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$213.67-19.8% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-32,896
CC BUYBACK-$4,420
CLOSE P/L$-37,316
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-32,896
STOCK @ $205.00$-7,100
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$170/pt+0.21δ/sh
CC INC/MO$4,144
CALLS NET 90D$6.2k/mokeep 74% · 20 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$165.00C / -$240.00P / +$90.00P / -$205.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $205.00 is 14.9% OTM. Safe. Earning $5.53/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-32,896 · at cap $-7,100. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $199.42. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $220.00C Dec 18 '26 (67d) · +$15/sh room · net +$2,168✓ DEEPEST FREE · $280.00C Mar 19 '27 (158d) · +$75/sh room · net +$2,088
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $205.00C · Nov 13 '26 · 32d · cap now $-7,100 · spot $178
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $205C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$1,720 76% T:52% flat -$31,176 · cap -$5,380 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ⚠ locks $2,232 if capped | — | — | $210C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$920.00 79% T:45% flat -$31,976 · cap -$1,328 | = ★ |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $250C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn -$2,376 93% T:14% flat -$35,272 · cap +$34,190 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$4.69/sh | — | — | $210C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$920.00 79% T:45% flat -$31,976 · cap -$1,328 | = ★ |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $220C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$100.00 84% T:34% flat -$32,796 · cap +$7,555 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$2.31/sh | — | — | $210C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$920.00 79% T:45% flat -$31,976 · cap -$1,328 | = ★ |
ALL CANDIDATES (28) · Nov 20 '26 / Nov 27 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $205.00C · Nov 13 '26 · 32d · cap now $-7,100 · spot $178
HARVEST Stock $178.41 fell below your $205.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 11 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $195.00 at +$2,400 (71% surv, T:62%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~18% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 8× | $200.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-11,868 if capped) | $0.89 | 0.13 | 93% T:14% | $-3,708 | $-36,604 | $-15,659 | ⚠ locks in $11,868 ($14.84/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 8× | $202.50C Oct 30 '26 · 18d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-6,605 if capped) mid capped $5.30 → $4.78 (above the lower strike) | $4.78 | 0.26 | 82% T:38% | $-600.00 | $-33,496 | $-10,125 | ⚠ locks in $6,605 ($8.26/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (11) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
loading...
⚠ STRETCH · 6 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $-2,720 · riskier, your call
loading...
✓ SKIP CC OTM MSTR · 10c · Joint:1782BBC LEAPS-ONLY
⚠️
OPEN CC SPANS EARNINGS
2026-10-29 (Thu)
in 17 days
Your open $200.00 Jan 15 '27 CC is still live on the report date. Consider buying it back before 2026-10-29 to sidestep the gap, or confirm you want the exposure.
MARKET
STOCK$154.08Joint: 10centry ~$395.00 · -61.0%
CURRENT CC$200.00Jan 15 '27 · 95d · mark 8.20 (7.80 / 8.60)
CC STATUSOTM 29.8%82% survT:39%hist 85%hist 37%
0.93σ · extrinsic 8.20
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$233.00-51.2% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$184.23-19.6% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-12,675
CC BUYBACK-$8,200
CLOSE P/L$-20,875
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-12,675
STOCK @ $200.00$14,571
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.59
CC INC/MO$2,589
CALLS NET 90D$1.5k/mokeep 91% · 11 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$180.00C / -$200.00CLEAPS-only · LC / CC
REASON
CC $200.00 is 29.8% OTM. Safe. Earning $8.20/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-12,675 · at cap $14,571. Weekly gate: EXTENDED. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $171.86. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $220.00C Mar 19 '27 (158d) · +$20/sh room · net +$3,460✓ DEEPEST FREE · $240.00C Mar 19 '27 (158d) · +$40/sh room · net +$710.00
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL-DOWN ONLY
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d) · Dec 18 '26 (67d) · Jan 15 '27 (95d)
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $200.00C · Jan 15 '27 · 95d · cap now $14,571 · spot $154
HARVEST Stock $154.08 fell below your $200.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 17 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $175.00 at +$5,775 (71% surv, T:66%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~15% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $195.00C Oct 30 '26 | roll down to 10× | $175.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d ✓ CC-safe | $0.59 | 0.10 | 94% T:12% | $-7,605 | $-20,280 | $-7,867 | — |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~8% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 10× | $177.50C Oct 16 '26 · 4d ✓ CC-safe | $0.47 | 0.08 | 95% T:9% | $-7,730 | $-20,405 | $-6,509 | — |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 10× | $195.00C Dec 18 '26 · 67d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe | $6.55 | 0.27 | 83% T:37% | $-1,650 | $-14,325 | $9,955 | — |
ALL CANDIDATES (28) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 20 '26 +2 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
loading...
⚠ STRETCH · 14 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $-33,595 · riskier, your call
loading...
✓ SKIP CC OTM RKLB · 6c · RetireInc:7291
ROLL RUNWAY~ model estimate · mid prices
Hold. Nothing to do below $73 (85% it expires and you keep $282.00)
ACT AT
$73
hold below it · roll that session · pre-load in TWS
FREE ROLL BUYS YOU (≤30d)
up to ~$80
with the stock at the strike
FREE ROLL IS GONE ABOVE
~$76.50
$3.50 of room · ~1.1 typical days
$67.58 now
$73 strike
$76.50 free roll gone
■ hold ■ act now, menu shrinking ■ too late for a free fix
Free roll reaches (≤30d): stock at $73 → up to $80 · stock at $74 → up to $79 · stock at $75 → up to $78 · above $76.50 → capped below the stock
Other tenor budgets: ≤15d gone above ~$74
Later expiries cross earnings and are not counted (never sell income into a print), so the longest free roll here is 25d.
Your current call already sits under the CC-safe floor $148.77, so rolls are not held to it: any higher strike is an improvement.
MARKET
STOCK$67.58RetireInc: 6centry ~$148.00 · -54.3%
CURRENT CC$73.00Oct 16 '26 · 4d · mark 0.47 (0.42 / 0.52)
CC STATUSOTM 8.0%85% survT:30%hist 85%hist 37%
1.04σ · extrinsic 0.47
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$141.55-109.5% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$148.59-119.9% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-51,696
CC BUYBACK-$282.00
CLOSE P/L$-51,978
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-51,696
STOCK @ $73.00$-48,213
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$42/pt+0.07δ/sh
CC INC/MO$2,115
CALLS NET 90D$2.4k/mokeep 66% · 16 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$115.00C / -$135.00P / +$45.00P / -$73.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $73.00 is 8.0% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.47/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-51,696 · at cap $-48,213. Next round in 4d: sell ~$70.00 (~0.30/sh). Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $108.18. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $76.00C Oct 23 '26 (11d) · +$3/sh room · net +$36.00 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $110.00C Mar 19 '27 (158d) · +$37/sh room · net +$1,794 · under CC-SS
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d)
⚠ No roll is CC-safe — the CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so a cap anywhere locks a from-entry loss if assigned. That loss is already locked by the current CC, so recommendations below rank roll-ups against the current cap instead (every strike up improves P/L @ CAP — see CAP GAIN). All rows tagged ✕CC-safe for reference.
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $73.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 4d · cap now $-48,213 · spot $67.58
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ ◆ ↗ BEST BALANCE + SAFER + ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) hist touch ~8% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe ▸ if challenged | roll to 6× | $83.00C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-42,105 if capped) | $0.17 | 0.05 | 96% T:9% | $-183.00 | $-51,879 | $-41,974 | ⚠ locks in $42,105 ($70.17/sh) loss if capped at trip: ~-$0.80/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $73.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.92/sh now → $2.06 mid-life (likely $2.13–$3.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,094 simulated challenges: the $73 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $74 (overshoots $1.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$80 | 20 Nov 2026 | 34d left | +$1.07/sh | +$643 cycle +$1,207 [+$361…+$664] · 96% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$42,971 NOT cap gain +$8,725 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$90 | 27 Nov 2026 | 40d left | -$0.90/sh | -$539 cycle +$25 [-$1,040…-$563] · 4% credit | 87% surv 86% | -$37,734 NOT cap gain +$13,962 |
| budget: banked $564 debit $539 (96% used) → whole cycle still +$25 cash · rolled 6 ct earn ≈ $525/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $74.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $2.96/sh now → $2.09 mid-life (likely $2.10–$3.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 894 simulated challenges: the $74 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $75 (overshoots $1.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$81 | 20 Nov 2026 | 34d left | +$1.07/sh | +$640 cycle +$1,102 [+$351…+$676] · 95% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$42,428 NOT cap gain +$9,268 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
BEST BALANCE · $83.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.32/sh now → $2.35 mid-life (likely $1.51–$2.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 107 simulated challenges: the $83 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 11, at $85 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$90 | 20 Nov 2026 | 34d left | +$0.97/sh | +$581 cycle +$641 [+$464…+$1,011] · 94% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$37,055 NOT cap gain +$14,641 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $77.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.08/sh now → $2.18 mid-life (likely $1.87–$3.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 491 simulated challenges: the $77 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $79 (overshoots $1.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (6 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$84 | 20 Nov 2026 | 34d left | +$1.04/sh | +$627 cycle +$885 [+$377…+$807] · 94% credit | 77% surv 71% | -$40,702 NOT cap gain +$10,994 |
| SS $142 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $73C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$315.00 77% T:47% flat -$51,381 · cap -$47,898 ⚠ locks $47,963 if capped | = ★ | $73C Nov 06 '26 (25d) +$1,110 71% T:62% flat -$50,586 · cap -$47,103 -6pp surv for +14d | $75C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$1,878 71% T:62% flat -$49,818 · cap -$45,051 +1pp surv for +14d | $73C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$2,568 67% T:73% flat -$49,128 · cap -$45,645 -5pp surv for +7d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $74C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$216.00 80% T:41% flat -$51,480 · cap -$47,355 ⚠ locks $47,434 if capped at trip: ~+$1.28/sh | = ★ | $79C Nov 06 '26 (25d) +$402.00 84% T:34% flat -$51,294 · cap -$43,958 +4pp surv for +14d | $77C Nov 06 '26 (25d) +$591.00 80% T:42% flat -$51,105 · cap -$45,053 -4pp surv for +0d | $85C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$1,218 85% T:32% flat -$50,478 · cap -$39,288 +5pp surv for +21d |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $83C Oct 23 '26 (11d) -$183.00 96% T:9% flat -$51,879 · cap -$41,974 ⚠ locks $42,105 if capped at trip: ~-$0.80/sh | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $77C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$6.00 88% T:25% flat -$51,690 · cap -$45,638 ⚠ locks $45,746 if capped ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$0.29/sh | = ★ | $85C Nov 06 '26 (25d) +$48.00 92% T:17% flat -$51,648 · cap -$40,458 cap +$8 for +14d | = | $95C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$324.00 93% T:16% flat -$51,372 · cap -$33,760 cap +$10 for +21d |
CANDIDATES (20 of 71) · Oct 23 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 20 '26 / Nov 27 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $73.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 4d · cap now $-48,213 · spot $67.58
HARVEST Stock $67.58 fell below your $73.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 1 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $71.00 at +$126.00 (75% surv, T:50%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 6× | $72.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-48,751 if capped) | $0.52 | 0.18 | 81% T:40% | +$30.00 | $-51,666 | $-48,825 | ⚠ locks in $48,751 ($81.25/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (1) · Oct 16 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
loading...
✓ SKIP CC OTM DELL · 3c · Main:1299
MARKET
STOCK$573.70Main: 3centry ~$567.00 · +1.2%
CURRENT CC$650.00Oct 30 '26 · 18d · mark 7.75 (6.55 / 8.95)
CC STATUSOTM 13.3%86% survT:30%hist 85%hist 29%
1.06σ · extrinsic 7.75
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$562.50+2.0% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$567.38+1.1% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$2,375
CC BUYBACK-$2,325
CLOSE P/L$49.50
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$2,375
STOCK @ $650.00$26,152
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$12/pt+0.04δ/sh
CC INC/MO$3,875
CALLS NET 90D$4.0k/mokeep 88% · 10 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$310.00C / -$400.00P / +$320.00P / -$650.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $650.00 is 13.3% OTM. Safe. Earning $7.75/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $2,375 · at cap $26,152. Weekly gate: OVERBOUGHT. Reference Upper BB + 1σ (extension cap) at $642.63. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $680.00C Nov 06 '26 (25d) · +$30/sh room · net +$40.50✓ DEEPEST FREE · $820.00C Dec 18 '26 (67d) · +$170/sh room · net +$730.50
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $650.00C · Oct 30 '26 · 18d · cap now $26,152 · spot $574
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~18% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $770.00C Nov 27 '26 | roll to 3× | $750.00C Nov 20 '26 · 39d ✓ CC-safe | $5.82 | 0.12 | 93% T:14% | $-577.50 | $1,797 | $56,739 | at trip: ~-$5.25/sh |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 3× | $750.00C Nov 13 '26 · 32d ✓ CC-safe | $4.40 | 0.08 | 95% T:10% | $-1,005 | $1,370 | $56,311 | at trip: ~-$9.95/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $605.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 16 of 32); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $48.61/sh now → $34.40 mid-life (likely $43.17–$53.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $28.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,950 simulated challenges: the $605 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 32, at $615 (overshoots $10.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$616 | 27 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$4.77/sh | +$1,432 cycle +$9,982 [-$190…+$668] · 67% credit | 70% surv 58% | +$24,947 SAFE cap gain +$22,572 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$626 | 27 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$0.18/sh | +$53 cycle +$8,603 [-$1,516…-$696] · 13% credit | 73% surv 61% | +$26,721 SAFE cap gain +$24,347 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$605 | 20 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$0.30/sh | -$91 cycle +$8,459 [-$1,540…-$760] · 12% credit | 68% surv 53% | +$19,927 SAFE cap gain +$17,553 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$741 | 27 Nov 2026 | 30d left | -$27.51/sh | -$8,254 cycle +$296 [-$11,971…-$9,990] | 91% surv 90% | +$54,521 SAFE cap gain +$52,147 |
| budget: banked $8,550 debit $8,254 (97% used) → whole cycle still +$296 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $2,065/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $660.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 16 of 32); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $53.03/sh now → $37.52 mid-life (likely $36.85–$52.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $13.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$24.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,009 simulated challenges: the $660 strike is typically first touched on day 16 of 32, at $672 (overshoots $12.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (3 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$666 | 27 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$5.16/sh | +$1,548 cycle +$5,553 [+$169…+$1,830] · 81% credit | 69% surv 56% | +$36,266 SAFE cap gain +$33,891 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$676 | 27 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$0.65/sh | +$194 cycle +$4,199 [-$1,322…+$362] · 31% credit | 70% surv 59% | +$38,054 SAFE cap gain +$35,680 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$660 | 20 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$2.86/sh | -$858 cycle +$3,147 [-$2,106…-$443] · 18% credit | 68% surv 53% | +$31,926 SAFE cap gain +$29,551 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$711 | 27 Nov 2026 | 30d left | -$13.04/sh | -$3,913 cycle +$92 [-$5,816…-$3,909] · 2% credit | 78% surv 71% | +$44,928 SAFE cap gain +$42,554 |
| budget: banked $4,005 debit $3,913 (98% used) → whole cycle still +$92 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $7,344/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $605C Nov 13 '26 (32d) +$6,780 65% T:74% flat +$9,155 · cap +$18,909 ✓ CC-safe | — | $605C Nov 06 '26 (25d) +$5,355 67% T:70% flat +$7,730 · cap +$17,484 | $610C Nov 20 '26 (39d) +$7,575 66% T:73% flat +$9,950 · cap +$21,262 -1pp surv for +14d | $610C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$9,788 65% T:76% flat +$12,162 · cap +$23,474 -1pp surv for +7d · +29% better outcome vs ≤20d · +14d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $660C Nov 13 '26 (32d) +$2,138 82% T:38% flat +$4,512 · cap +$31,406 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$16.87/sh | — | $640C Nov 06 '26 (25d) +$2,108 79% T:44% flat +$4,482 · cap +$25,144 | $670C Nov 20 '26 (39d) +$2,640 82% T:38% flat +$5,015 · cap +$35,025 +3pp surv for +14d | $690C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$3,240 83% T:37% flat +$5,615 · cap +$41,858 +1pp surv for +7d |
ALL CANDIDATES (94) · Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 / Nov 20 '26 / Nov 27 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $650.00C · Oct 30 '26 · 18d · cap now $26,152 · spot $574
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 3× | $630.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d ✓ CC-safe | $2.37 | 0.14 | 92% T:15% | $-1,616 | $759.00 | $18,304 | — |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 3× | $640.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d ✓ CC-safe | $1.53 | 0.09 | 95% T:10% | $-1,866 | $508.50 | $21,170 | — |
| ▶ ● BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 3× | $640.00C Oct 30 '26 · 18d ✓ CC-safe | $10.65 | 0.25 | 82% T:37% | +$870.00 | $3,245 | $23,906 | — |
ALL CANDIDATES (24) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
loading...
⚠ STRETCH · 8 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $5,747 · riskier, your call
loading...
✓ SKIP CC OTM COIN · 25c · Main:1299BBC
MARKET
STOCK$178.41Main: 25centry ~$330.00 · -45.9%
CURRENT CC$200.00Oct 23 '26 · 11d · mark 1.90 (1.80 / 2.00)
CC STATUSOTM 12.1%87% survT:27%hist 85%hist 29%
1.12σ · extrinsic 1.90
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$563.00-215.6% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$380.96-113.5% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-201,563
CC BUYBACK-$4,750
CLOSE P/L$-206,313
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-201,563
STOCK @ $200.00$-189,441
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.22
CC INC/MO$12,955
CALLS NET 90D$6.2k/mokeep 74% · 20 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$500.00C / -$330.00P / +$300.00P / -$200.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $200.00 is 12.1% OTM. Safe. Earning $1.90/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-201,563 · at cap $-189,441. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $199.42. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $207.50C Oct 30 '26 (18d) · +$8/sh room · net +$3,838 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $270.00C Mar 19 '27 (158d) · +$70/sh room · net +$18,212 · under CC-SS
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d)
⚠ No roll is CC-safe — the CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so a cap anywhere locks a from-entry loss if assigned. That loss is already locked by the current CC, so recommendations below rank roll-ups against the current cap instead (every strike up improves P/L @ CAP — see CAP GAIN). All rows tagged ✕CC-safe for reference.
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $200.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 11d · cap now $-189,441 · spot $178
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $230.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $20.32/sh now → $14.38 mid-life (likely $10.79–$17.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$13.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 334 simulated challenges: the $230 strike is typically first touched on day 12 of 18, at $235 (overshoots $5.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$252 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | -$0.16/sh | -$399 cycle +$2,251 [-$2,117…+$7,518] · 62% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$154,560 NOT cap gain +$47,003 |
| budget: banked $2,650 debit $399 (15% used) → whole cycle still +$2,251 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $35,551/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $222.5 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 25 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $19.22/sh now → $13.60 mid-life (likely $10.90–$17.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$12.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 405 simulated challenges: the $222 strike is typically first touched on day 12 of 18, at $228 (overshoots $5.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (25 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$244 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | -$0.56/sh | -$1,394 cycle +$2,356 [-$4,428…+$4,965] · 48% credit | 76% surv 69% | -$160,724 NOT cap gain +$40,839 |
| budget: banked $3,750 debit $1,394 (37% used) → whole cycle still +$2,356 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $32,607/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $200C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$10,375 77% T:49% flat -$191,188 · cap -$179,066 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ⚠ locks $177,206 if capped | — | = ★ | $200C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$18,125 73% T:60% flat -$183,438 · cap -$171,316 -4pp surv for +14d | = |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $215C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$3,763 87% T:27% flat -$197,800 · cap -$177,254 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ⚠ locks $173,987 if capped at trip: ~+$2.74/sh | — | = ★ | $210C Nov 13 '26 (32d) ⚠ earn +$8,062 82% T:37% flat -$193,500 · cap -$175,762 -5pp surv for +7d | $225C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$8,050 86% T:30% flat -$193,513 · cap -$167,351 +4pp surv for +14d |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $230C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn -$1,562 95% T:10% flat -$203,125 · cap -$174,155 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ⚠ locks $167,067 if capped at trip: ~-$2.09/sh | — | = ★ | $250C Nov 13 '26 (32d) ⚠ earn -$2,025 96% T:9% flat -$203,588 · cap -$163,386 -1pp touch for +14d | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $222.5C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$50.00 93% T:15% flat -$201,513 · cap -$176,755 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ⚠ locks $171,143 if capped ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~-$0.77/sh | — | = ★ | = ★ | $250C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$1,637 93% T:14% flat -$199,925 · cap -$159,724 cap +$27.5 for +28d |
CANDIDATES (19 of 95) · Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 / Nov 20 '26 +1 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $200.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 11d · cap now $-189,441 · spot $178
HARVEST Stock $178.41 fell below your $200.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 3 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $187.50 at +$8,625 (70% surv, T:62%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ ● ⚠ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + SAFEST VIABLE + RISKY HARVEST | roll down to 25× | $195.00C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-184,991 if capped) | $3.38 | 0.28 | 81% T:39% | +$3,688 | $-197,875 | $-188,561 | ⚠ locks in $184,991 ($74.00/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (6) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
loading...
⚠ STRETCH · 2 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $7,588 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE | NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $192.50 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-185,563 if capped) | Oct 23 '26 · 11d | $4,588 | 78% | 46% |
| ● $187.50 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-189,176 if capped) | Oct 16 '26 · 4d | $3,000 | 76% | 49% |
✓ SKIP CC OTM IREN · 20c · Main:1299
⚠️
OPEN CC SPANS EARNINGS
2026-11-05 (Thu)
in 24 days
Your open $49.00 Nov 20 '26 CC is still live on the report date. Consider buying it back before 2026-11-05 to sidestep the gap, or confirm you want the exposure.
MARKET
STOCK$36.05Main: 20centry ~$45.00 · -19.9%
CURRENT CC$49.00Nov 20 '26 · 39d · mark 0.85 (0.80 / 0.91)
CC STATUSOTM 35.9%89% survT:24%hist 85%hist 29%
1.23σ · extrinsic 0.85
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$44.00-22.1% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$49.23-36.6% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-23,900
CC BUYBACK-$1,710
CLOSE P/L$-25,610
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-23,900
STOCK @ $49.00$-1,469
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.87
CC INC/MO$1,315
CALLS NET 90D$1.7k/mokeep 17% · 39 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$25.00C / -$47.00P / +$35.00P / -$49.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $49.00 is 35.9% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.85/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-23,900 · at cap $-1,469. Weekly gate: PULLBACK. Reference 20W MA (bounce target) at $43.18. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $55.00C Dec 18 '26 (67d) · +$6/sh room · net +$190.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $65.00C Feb 19 '27 (130d) · +$16/sh room · net +$1,040
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d) · Dec 18 '26 (67d)
⚠ No roll is CC-safe — the CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so a cap anywhere locks a from-entry loss if assigned. That loss is already locked by the current CC, so recommendations below rank roll-ups against the current cap instead (every strike up improves P/L @ CAP — see CAP GAIN). All rows tagged ✕CC-safe for reference.
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $49.00C · Nov 20 '26 · 39d · cap now $-1,469 · spot $36.05
NO HIGH-CONVICTION PICK: no candidate clears 65% survival with a viable credit. See table for trade-offs.
ALL CANDIDATES (17) · Nov 27 '26 / Dec 18 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $49.00C · Nov 20 '26 · 39d · cap now $-1,469 · spot $36.05
HARVEST Stock $36.05 fell below your $49.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 13 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $40.00 at +$3,230 (70% surv, T:66%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 20× | $44.00C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-9,282 if capped) | $0.21 | 0.09 | 93% T:15% | $-1,300 | $-25,200 | $-11,430 | ⚠ locks in $9,282 ($4.64/sh) loss if capped |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~8% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 20× | $46.50C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-4,385 if capped) | $0.12 | 0.05 | 96% T:8% | $-1,480 | $-25,380 | $-7,279 | ⚠ locks in $4,385 ($2.19/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ ● BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 20× | $45.00C Nov 20 '26 · 39d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 05 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-6,410 if capped) | $1.33 | 0.25 | 83% T:37% | +$960.00 | $-22,940 | $-7,437 | ⚠ locks in $6,410 ($3.21/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (26) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +1 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
loading...
⚠ STRETCH · 5 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $4,360 · riskier, your call
loading...
✓ SKIP CC OTM IREN · 20c · Joint:1782
⚠️
OPEN CC SPANS EARNINGS
2026-11-05 (Thu)
in 24 days
Your open $49.00 Nov 20 '26 CC is still live on the report date. Consider buying it back before 2026-11-05 to sidestep the gap, or confirm you want the exposure.
MARKET
STOCK$36.05Joint: 20centry ~$45.00 · -19.9%
CURRENT CC$49.00Nov 20 '26 · 39d · mark 0.85 (0.80 / 0.91)
CC STATUSOTM 35.9%89% survT:24%hist 85%hist 29%
1.23σ · extrinsic 0.85
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$44.00-22.1% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$49.23-36.6% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-23,900
CC BUYBACK-$1,710
CLOSE P/L$-25,610
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-23,900
STOCK @ $49.00$-1,469
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.87
CC INC/MO$1,315
CALLS NET 90D$1.7k/mokeep 17% · 39 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$25.00C / -$47.00P / +$35.00P / -$49.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $49.00 is 35.9% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.85/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-23,900 · at cap $-1,469. Weekly gate: PULLBACK. Reference 20W MA (bounce target) at $43.18. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $55.00C Dec 18 '26 (67d) · +$6/sh room · net +$190.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $65.00C Feb 19 '27 (130d) · +$16/sh room · net +$1,040
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d) · Dec 18 '26 (67d)
⚠ No roll is CC-safe — the CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so a cap anywhere locks a from-entry loss if assigned. That loss is already locked by the current CC, so recommendations below rank roll-ups against the current cap instead (every strike up improves P/L @ CAP — see CAP GAIN). All rows tagged ✕CC-safe for reference.
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $49.00C · Nov 20 '26 · 39d · cap now $-1,469 · spot $36.05
NO HIGH-CONVICTION PICK: no candidate clears 65% survival with a viable credit. See table for trade-offs.
ALL CANDIDATES (17) · Nov 27 '26 / Dec 18 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $49.00C · Nov 20 '26 · 39d · cap now $-1,469 · spot $36.05
HARVEST Stock $36.05 fell below your $49.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 13 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $40.00 at +$3,230 (70% surv, T:66%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 20× | $44.00C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-9,282 if capped) | $0.21 | 0.09 | 93% T:15% | $-1,300 | $-25,200 | $-11,430 | ⚠ locks in $9,282 ($4.64/sh) loss if capped |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~8% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 20× | $46.50C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-4,385 if capped) | $0.12 | 0.05 | 96% T:8% | $-1,480 | $-25,380 | $-7,279 | ⚠ locks in $4,385 ($2.19/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ ● BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 20× | $45.00C Nov 20 '26 · 39d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 05 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-6,410 if capped) | $1.33 | 0.25 | 83% T:37% | +$960.00 | $-22,940 | $-7,437 | ⚠ locks in $6,410 ($3.21/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (26) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +1 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
loading...
⚠ STRETCH · 5 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $4,360 · riskier, your call
loading...
✓ SKIP CC OTM CRCL · 5c · Neville:0865
MARKET
STOCK$83.23Neville: 5centry ~$90.85 · -8.4%
CURRENT CC$98.00Oct 23 '26 · 11d · mark 0.72 (0.55 / 0.88)
CC STATUSOTM 17.7%90% survT:20%hist 95%hist 29%
1.29σ · extrinsic 0.72
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$87.00-4.5% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$90.94-9.3% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-4,013
CC BUYBACK-$357.50
CLOSE P/L$-4,370
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-4,013
STOCK @ $98.00$3,859
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$33/pt+0.07δ/sh
CC INC/MO$975.00
CALLS NET 90D$690/mokeep 95% · 2 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$45.00C / -$65.00P / +$40.00P / -$98.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $98.00 is 17.7% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.72/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-4,013 · at cap $3,859. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $101.23. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $103.00C Oct 30 '26 (18d) · +$5/sh room · net +$85.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $140.00C Mar 19 '27 (158d) · +$42/sh room · net +$1,698
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $98.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 11d · cap now $3,859 · spot $83.23
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $120.00C Nov 27 '26 | roll to 5× | $104.00C Oct 30 '26 · 18d ✓ CC-safe | $0.81 | 0.13 | 93% T:15% | +$47.50 | $-3,965 | $7,106 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$203.57/mo of added tenor vs $975.00/mo run rate at trip: ~+$0.47/sh |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~7% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 5× | $110.00C Oct 30 '26 · 18d ✓ CC-safe | $0.53 | 0.08 | 96% T:8% | $-90.00 | $-4,103 | $10,167 | at trip: ~-$0.99/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $98.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 25); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.16/sh now → $7.20 mid-life (likely $7.41–$10.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,142 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 12 of 25, at $101 (overshoots $2.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$98 | 13 Nov 2026 | 20d left | -$1.80/sh | -$901 cycle +$399 [-$1,487…-$757] · 6% credit | 67% surv 53% | +$4,083 SAFE cap gain +$8,095 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$105 | 20 Nov 2026 | 26d left | -$2.02/sh | -$1,011 cycle +$289 [-$1,598…-$946] · 4% credit | 77% surv 68% | +$7,549 SAFE cap gain +$11,561 |
| budget: banked $1,300 debit $1,011 (78% used) → whole cycle still +$289 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,984/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $105.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 25); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.89/sh now → $7.71 mid-life (likely $6.98–$10.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 738 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 14 of 25, at $108 (overshoots $3.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$109 | 27 Nov 2026 | 34d left | -$1.47/sh | -$734 cycle +$6 [-$1,274…-$185] · 19% credit | 72% surv 61% | +$9,374 SAFE cap gain +$13,386 |
| budget: banked $740 debit $734 (99% used) → whole cycle still +$6 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,754/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$105 | 13 Nov 2026 | 20d left | -$2.23/sh | -$1,113 cycle -$373 [-$1,583…-$599] · 10% credit | 66% surv 53% | +$7,022 SAFE cap gain +$11,035 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $125.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 25); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $12.96/sh now → $9.18 mid-life (likely $6.69–$10.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 152 simulated challenges: the $125 strike is typically first touched on day 18 of 25, at $128 (overshoots $3.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$125 | 13 Nov 2026 | 20d left | -$3.66/sh | -$1,830 cycle -$1,715 [-$1,816…-$640] · 12% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$16,203 SAFE cap gain +$20,215 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $115.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 25); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $11.93/sh now → $8.44 mid-life (likely $6.25–$10.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.57/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 343 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 17 of 25, at $118 (overshoots $3.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$115 | 13 Nov 2026 | 20d left | -$2.90/sh | -$1,451 cycle -$1,166 [-$1,622…-$520] · 12% credit | 66% surv 53% | +$11,505 SAFE cap gain +$15,518 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $98C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$1,155 82% T:39% flat -$2,858 · cap +$5,014 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 04 ✓ CC-safe | — | = ★ | $100C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$1,467 81% T:42% flat -$2,545 · cap +$6,393 -1pp surv for +14d · +43% better outcome vs ≤20d · +14d | = |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $105C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$527.50 89% T:23% flat -$3,485 · cap +$8,119 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 04 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$1.84/sh | — | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $125C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn -$127.50 98% T:5% flat -$4,140 · cap +$18,127 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 04 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$1.92/sh | — | = ★ | $140C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn -$112.50 98% T:5% flat -$4,125 · cap +$26,139 ≈ same touch for +14d | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $115C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$72.50 95% T:11% flat -$3,940 · cap +$12,995 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 04 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~-$0.57/sh | — | = ★ | $130C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$17.50 96% T:8% flat -$3,995 · cap +$20,938 cap +$15 for +14d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (80) · Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 / Nov 20 '26 +1 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $98.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 11d · cap now $3,859 · spot $83.23
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ ● BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 5× | $92.00C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✓ CC-safe | $1.85 | 0.30 | 81% T:40% | +$567.50 | $-3,445 | $1,228 | — |
ALL CANDIDATES (6) · Oct 23 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
loading...
⚠ STRETCH · 1 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $670.00 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE | NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● $91.00 ✓ CC-safe | Oct 23 '26 · 11d | $670.00 | 78% | 45% |
✓ SKIP CC OTM AMD · 2c · Main:1299
MARKET
STOCK$595.07Main: 2centry ~$656.00 · -9.3%
CURRENT CC$665.00Oct 23 '26 · 11d · mark 2.37 (2.23 / 2.50)
CC STATUSOTM 11.8%91% survT:18%hist 95%hist 19%
1.35σ · extrinsic 2.37
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$649.20-9.1% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$660.87-11.1% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-12,840
CC BUYBACK-$473.00
CLOSE P/L$-13,313
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-12,840
STOCK @ $665.00$993.29
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.99
CC INC/MO$1,290
CALLS NET 90D$3.0k/mokeep 95% · 6 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$410.00C / -$550.00P / +$470.00P / -$665.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $665.00 is 11.8% OTM. Safe. Earning $2.37/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-12,840 · at cap $993.29. Weekly gate: EXTENDED. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $632.77. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $690.00C Nov 13 '26 (32d) · +$25/sh room · net +$1,704✓ DEEPEST FREE · $840.00C Dec 18 '26 (67d) · +$175/sh room · net +$489.00
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 12 '26 (0d) · Oct 14 '26 (2d) · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 19 '26 (7d) · Oct 21 '26 (9d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 26 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $665.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 11d · cap now $993.29 · spot $595
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~20% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $760.00C Nov 27 '26 | roll to 2× | $690.00C Oct 30 '26 · 18d ✓ CC-safe | $3.01 | 0.11 | 92% T:16% | +$129.00 | $-12,711 | $6,068 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$552.86/mo of added tenor vs $1,290/mo run rate at trip: ~+$2.91/sh |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 2× | $710.00C Oct 30 '26 · 18d ✓ CC-safe | $1.79 | 0.07 | 95% T:10% | $-114.00 | $-12,954 | $9,781 | at trip: ~-$2.54/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $665.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 25); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $41.70/sh now → $29.50 mid-life (likely $29.40–$42.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $12.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$16.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,155 simulated challenges: the $665 strike is typically first touched on day 12 of 25, at $677 (overshoots $12.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$670 | 20 Nov 2026 | 26d left | +$4.24/sh | +$848 cycle +$3,418 [+$265…+$1,236] · 96% credit | 70% surv 55% | +$4,640 SAFE cap gain +$17,480 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$680 | 27 Nov 2026 | 34d left | +$1.39/sh | +$278 cycle +$2,848 [-$586…+$652] · 43% credit | 71% surv 59% | +$6,086 SAFE cap gain +$18,926 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$665 | 13 Nov 2026 | 20d left | +$0.23/sh | +$45 cycle +$2,615 [-$480…+$366] · 39% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$2,942 SAFE cap gain +$15,782 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$720 | 27 Nov 2026 | 34d left | -$12.64/sh | -$2,528 cycle +$42 [-$3,832…-$2,400] · 2% credit | 79% surv 74% | +$11,910 SAFE cap gain +$24,750 |
| budget: banked $2,570 debit $2,528 (98% used) → whole cycle still +$42 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $2,976/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $700.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 25); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $43.90/sh now → $31.06 mid-life (likely $27.10–$41.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$23.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 652 simulated challenges: the $700 strike is typically first touched on day 15 of 25, at $712 (overshoots $12.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$705 | 20 Nov 2026 | 26d left | +$2.69/sh | +$539 cycle +$1,969 [+$167…+$1,467] · 85% credit | 69% surv 55% | +$10,691 SAFE cap gain +$23,531 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$710 | 27 Nov 2026 | 34d left | +$1.13/sh | +$227 cycle +$1,657 [-$403…+$1,200] · 60% credit | 69% surv 57% | +$11,365 SAFE cap gain +$24,205 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$700 | 13 Nov 2026 | 20d left | -$1.27/sh | -$255 cycle +$1,175 [-$596…+$541] · 44% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$8,951 SAFE cap gain +$21,791 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$730 | 27 Nov 2026 | 34d left | -$6.02/sh | -$1,205 cycle +$225 [-$1,978…-$454] · 18% credit | 74% surv 65% | +$14,252 SAFE cap gain +$27,092 |
| budget: banked $1,430 debit $1,205 (84% used) → whole cycle still +$225 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $4,418/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $780.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 25); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $48.91/sh now → $34.60 mid-life (likely $24.48–$40.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.74/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$32.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 147 simulated challenges: the $780 strike is typically first touched on day 18 of 25, at $793 (overshoots $13.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$785 | 20 Nov 2026 | 26d left | -$1.55/sh | -$309 cycle +$39 [-$87…+$1,697] · 74% credit | 69% surv 54% | +$25,970 SAFE cap gain +$38,810 |
| budget: banked $348 debit $309 (89% used) → whole cycle still +$39 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $7,629/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$780 | 13 Nov 2026 | 20d left | -$5.27/sh | -$1,053 cycle -$705 [-$870…+$753] · 44% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$24,221 SAFE cap gain +$37,061 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $760.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 25); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $47.66/sh now → $33.72 mid-life (likely $25.07–$39.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$31.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 248 simulated challenges: the $760 strike is typically first touched on day 18 of 25, at $775 (overshoots $15.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$765 | 27 Nov 2026 | 34d left | +$0.88/sh | +$176 cycle +$676 [+$345…+$2,102] · 81% credit | 68% surv 55% | +$22,254 SAFE cap gain +$35,094 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$770 | 27 Nov 2026 | 34d left | -$2.09/sh | -$417 cycle +$83 [-$379…+$1,469] · 62% credit | 69% surv 57% | +$22,738 SAFE cap gain +$35,578 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$760 | 13 Nov 2026 | 20d left | -$4.19/sh | -$839 cycle -$339 [-$671…+$737] · 51% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$20,297 SAFE cap gain +$33,137 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $665C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$2,147 80% T:42% flat -$10,693 · cap +$3,140 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 03 ✓ CC-safe | — | = ★ | $670C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$2,977 78% T:46% flat -$9,863 · cap +$4,959 -2pp surv for +14d | $665C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$3,727 76% T:50% flat -$9,113 · cap +$4,720 -2pp surv for +7d · +26% better outcome vs ≤20d · +21d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $700C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$1,002 88% T:25% flat -$11,838 · cap +$8,919 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 03 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$9.75/sh | — | = ★ | = ★ | $720C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$1,692 88% T:26% flat -$11,148 · cap +$13,565 -0pp surv for +21d |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $780C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn -$78.00 97% T:7% flat -$12,918 · cap +$23,664 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 03 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$6.77/sh | — | = ★ | $800C Nov 13 '26 (32d) ⚠ earn -$75.00 97% T:6% flat -$12,915 · cap +$27,623 ≈ same touch for +7d | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $760C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$53.00 95% T:9% flat -$12,787 · cap +$19,839 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 03 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~-$4.04/sh | — | = ★ | $810C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$26.00 96% T:7% flat -$12,814 · cap +$29,703 cap +$50 for +14d | $820C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$122.00 97% T:7% flat -$12,718 · cap +$31,777 cap +$10 for +7d |
ALL CANDIDATES (171) · Oct 26 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +2 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $665.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 11d · cap now $993.29 · spot $595
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~18% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 2× | $660.00C Oct 21 '26 · 9d ✓ CC-safe | $2.31 | 0.10 | 93% T:14% | $-10.00 | $-12,850 | $-5.79 | — |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 2× | $635.00C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-4,040 if capped) | $6.38 | 0.24 | 81% T:39% | +$802.00 | $-12,038 | $-4,139 | ⚠ locks in $4,040 ($20.20/sh) loss if capped |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE ▸ if challenged | roll down to 2× | $622.50C Oct 16 '26 · 4d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-6,723 if capped) | $4.38 | 0.24 | 81% T:38% | +$402.00 | $-12,438 | $-7,012 | ⚠ locks in $6,723 ($33.62/sh) loss if capped |
| ⚠ RISKY HARVEST ▸ if challenged | roll down to 2× | $625.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-6,323 if capped) | $3.88 | 0.22 | 83% T:34% | +$302.00 | $-12,538 | $-6,617 | ⚠ locks in $6,323 ($31.61/sh) loss if capped |
SAFEST VIABLE · $622.5 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $16.93/sh now → $11.98 mid-life (likely $12.39–$21.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 782 simulated challenges: the $622 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $632 (overshoots $9.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$622 | 19 Oct 2026 | 5d left | -$9.39/sh | -$1,878 cycle -$1,018 [-$3,575…-$1,938] | 54% surv 51% | -$8,722 NOT cap gain +$4,118 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
RISKY HARVEST · $625.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $17.00/sh now → $12.02 mid-life (likely $12.24–$20.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 657 simulated challenges: the $625 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $634 (overshoots $8.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (2 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$625 | 19 Oct 2026 | 5d left | -$9.44/sh | -$1,887 cycle -$1,127 [-$3,394…-$1,901] | 54% surv 51% | -$8,330 NOT cap gain +$4,510 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ALL CANDIDATES (38) · Oct 12 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 19 '26 / Oct 21 '26 +1 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
loading...
⚠ STRETCH · 12 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $8,364 · riskier, your call
loading...
✓ SKIP CC OTM QCOM · 5c · RetireInc:7291
⚠️
OPEN CC SPANS EARNINGS
2026-11-04 (Wed)
in 23 days
Your open $220.00 Nov 20 '26 CC is still live on the report date. Consider buying it back before 2026-11-04 to sidestep the gap, or confirm you want the exposure.
MARKET
STOCK$173.93RetireInc: 5centry ~$228.00 · -23.7%
CURRENT CC$220.00Nov 20 '26 · 39d · mark 1.61 (1.39 / 1.83)
CC STATUSOTM 26.5%92% survT:17%hist 95%hist 19%
1.41σ · extrinsic 1.61
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$224.00-28.8% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$227.30-30.7% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-28,012
CC BUYBACK-$805.00
CLOSE P/L$-28,818
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-28,012
STOCK @ $220.00$-3,055
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$42/pt+0.08δ/sh
CC INC/MO$619.23
CALLS NET 90D$913/mokeep 87% · 5 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$190.00C / -$210.00P / +$100.00P / -$220.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $220.00 is 26.5% OTM. Safe. Earning $1.61/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-28,012 · at cap $-3,055. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $218.93. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $240.00C Jan 15 '27 (95d) · +$20/sh room · net +$487.50✓ DEEPEST FREE · $280.00C Feb 19 '27 (130d) · +$60/sh room · net +$165.00
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d) · Dec 18 '26 (67d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $220.00C · Nov 20 '26 · 39d · cap now $-3,055 · spot $174
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤67d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $220C Dec 18 '26 (67d) ⚠ earn +$732.50 88% T:25% flat -$27,280 · cap -$2,323 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 04 ⚠ locks $2,602 if capped | — | — | — | = ★ |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $260C Dec 18 '26 (67d) ⚠ earn -$360.00 97% T:7% flat -$28,372 · cap +$18,251 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 04 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$3.01/sh | — | — | — | = ★ |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $230C Dec 18 '26 (67d) ⚠ earn +$235.00 92% T:18% flat -$27,778 · cap +$2,596 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 04 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$4.32/sh | — | — | — | = ★ |
ALL CANDIDATES (28) · Nov 27 '26 / Dec 18 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $220.00C · Nov 20 '26 · 39d · cap now $-3,055 · spot $174
HARVEST Stock $173.93 fell below your $220.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 7 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $190.00 at +$2,083 (73% surv, T:56%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~15% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 5× | $205.00C Oct 30 '26 · 18d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-11,389 if capped) | $0.56 | 0.07 | 94% T:12% | $-525.00 | $-28,538 | $-11,705 | ⚠ locks in $11,389 ($22.78/sh) loss if capped |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~7% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 5× | $210.00C Oct 30 '26 · 18d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-8,807 if capped) | $0.40 | 0.05 | 96% T:8% | $-607.50 | $-28,620 | $-9,080 | ⚠ locks in $8,807 ($17.61/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 5× | $200.00C Nov 20 '26 · 39d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 04 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-12,752 if capped) | $3.60 | 0.23 | 82% T:38% | +$995.00 | $-27,018 | $-12,894 | ⚠ locks in $12,752 ($25.50/sh) loss if capped |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 5× | $195.00C Nov 06 '26 · 25d ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 04 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-15,385 if capped) | $3.39 | 0.23 | 81% T:39% | +$890.00 | $-27,122 | $-15,707 | ⚠ locks in $15,385 ($30.77/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (23) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 +2 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
loading...
⚠ STRETCH · 4 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $3,052 · riskier, your call
loading...
✓ SKIP CC OTM HOOD · 10c · Joint:1782
MARKET
STOCK$108.28Joint: 10centry ~$119.00 · -9.0%
CURRENT CC$120.00Oct 16 '26 · 4d · mark 0.27 (0.25 / 0.29)
CC STATUSOTM 10.8%94% survT:12%hist 95%hist 19%
1.55σ · extrinsic 0.27
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$114.95-6.2% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$119.63-10.5% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-11,325
CC BUYBACK-$270.00
CLOSE P/L$-11,595
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-11,325
STOCK @ $120.00$386.45
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 1.00
CC INC/MO$2,025
CALLS NET 90D$1.9k/mokeep 95% · 4 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$65.00C / -$95.00P / +$80.00P / -$120.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $120.00 is 10.8% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.27/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-11,325 · at cap $386.45. Next round in 4d: sell ~$112.00 (~0.49/sh). Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $126.54. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $124.00C Oct 23 '26 (11d) · +$4/sh room · net +$350.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $170.00C Mar 19 '27 (158d) · +$50/sh room · net +$3,815
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $120.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 4d · cap now $386.45 · spot $108
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~18% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $145.00C Nov 20 '26 | roll to 10× | $125.00C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✓ CC-safe | $0.55 | 0.11 | 93% T:14% | +$285.00 | $-11,040 | $5,669 | at trip: ~+$0.51/sh |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 10× | $128.00C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✓ CC-safe | $0.38 | 0.07 | 95% T:10% | +$105.00 | $-11,220 | $8,488 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$450.00/mo of added tenor vs $1,157/mo run rate at trip: ~-$0.24/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $120.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.11/sh now → $5.74 mid-life (likely $6.19–$8.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.96/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,283 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 18, at $123 (overshoots $2.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$125 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | +$1.26/sh | +$1,261 cycle +$4,221 [+$195…+$1,428] · 87% credit | 73% surv 62% | +$8,686 SAFE cap gain +$20,011 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$120 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.59/sh | +$594 cycle +$3,554 [+$75…+$852] · 83% credit | 68% surv 53% | +$3,398 SAFE cap gain +$14,723 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$122 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.07/sh | +$67 cycle +$3,027 [-$448…+$239] · 35% credit | 71% surv 57% | +$4,677 SAFE cap gain +$16,002 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$128 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | +$0.16/sh | +$161 cycle +$3,121 [-$1,053…+$172] · 29% credit | 76% surv 67% | +$10,819 SAFE cap gain +$22,144 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$137 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | -$2.76/sh | -$2,756 cycle +$204 [-$4,410…-$2,993] · 1% credit | 84% surv 81% | +$17,661 SAFE cap gain +$28,986 |
| budget: banked $2,960 debit $2,756 (93% used) → whole cycle still +$204 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,980/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $129.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.72/sh now → $6.17 mid-life (likely $5.51–$8.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 657 simulated challenges: the $129 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 18, at $132 (overshoots $2.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$129 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.26/sh | +$263 cycle +$1,683 [-$11…+$1,166] · 73% credit | 68% surv 52% | +$11,050 SAFE cap gain +$22,375 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$130 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.20/sh | +$199 cycle +$1,619 [-$49…+$1,052] · 73% credit | 69% surv 54% | +$11,748 SAFE cap gain +$23,073 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$135 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | +$0.50/sh | +$504 cycle +$1,924 [-$223…+$1,448] · 65% credit | 74% surv 64% | +$17,172 SAFE cap gain +$28,497 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$136 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | +$0.15/sh | +$151 cycle +$1,571 [-$640…+$1,021] · 49% credit | 75% surv 65% | +$17,897 SAFE cap gain +$29,222 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$140 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | -$1.19/sh | -$1,188 cycle +$232 [-$2,261…-$468] · 19% credit | 78% surv 71% | +$20,869 SAFE cap gain +$32,194 |
| budget: banked $1,420 debit $1,188 (84% used) → whole cycle still +$232 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,036/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $130.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $5.84/sh now → $4.13 mid-life (likely $3.09–$5.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 209 simulated challenges: the $130 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $132 (overshoots $2.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$130 | 30 Oct 2026 | 12d left | +$2.28/sh | +$2,276 cycle +$2,556 [+$2,246…+$2,925] · 100% credit | 68% surv 52% | +$13,101 SAFE cap gain +$24,426 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$135 | 30 Oct 2026 | 12d left | +$0.12/sh | +$116 cycle +$396 [-$79…+$698] · 68% credit | 75% surv 65% | +$15,947 SAFE cap gain +$27,272 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$145 | 27 Nov 2026 | 40d left | +$0.16/sh | +$161 cycle +$441 [-$263…+$1,202] · 65% credit | 81% surv 76% | +$26,457 SAFE cap gain +$37,782 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $120C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$2,735 77% T:48% flat -$8,590 · cap +$3,121 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 27 ✓ CC-safe | $120C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$820.00 87% T:28% flat -$10,505 · cap +$1,206 | $120C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$3,505 75% T:52% flat -$7,820 · cap +$3,891 -11pp surv for +14d | $120C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$4,830 73% T:58% flat -$6,495 · cap +$5,216 -3pp surv for +14d | $120C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$5,305 72% T:59% flat -$6,020 · cap +$5,691 -1pp surv for +7d · +53% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $129C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$1,170 89% T:24% flat -$10,155 · cap +$10,552 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 27 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$1.74/sh | $122C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$560.00 90% T:21% flat -$10,765 · cap +$2,946 | $134C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$1,155 90% T:21% flat -$10,170 · cap +$15,535 +1pp surv for +14d | $131C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$1,485 88% T:25% flat -$9,840 · cap +$12,866 -2pp surv for +0d | $140C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$1,640 90% T:22% flat -$9,685 · cap +$22,017 +2pp surv for +21d |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) + ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $130C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$20.00 96% T:7% flat -$11,305 · cap +$10,402 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~-$0.62/sh | = ★ | $150C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$215.00 97% T:7% flat -$11,110 · cap +$30,587 ≈ same touch for +14d | $160C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$290.00 97% T:6% flat -$11,035 · cap +$40,658 -1pp touch for +14d | $165C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$285.00 97% T:6% flat -$11,040 · cap +$45,650 ≈ same touch for +7d |
ALL CANDIDATES (128) · Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +2 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $120.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 4d · cap now $386.45 · spot $108
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~18% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 10× | $119.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-258.00 if capped) | $0.39 | 0.11 | 93% T:14% | +$120.00 | $-11,205 | $-493.07 | ⚠ locks in $258.00 ($0.26/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ ● BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 10× | $115.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-3,834 if capped) | $0.91 | 0.23 | 84% T:33% | +$635.00 | $-10,690 | $-3,976 | ⚠ locks in $3,834 ($3.83/sh) loss if capped |
| ⚠ RISKY HARVEST | roll down to 10× | $117.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-2,110 if capped) | $0.59 | 0.17 | 89% T:22% | +$320.00 | $-11,005 | $-2,292 | ⚠ locks in $2,110 ($2.11/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (5) · Oct 16 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
loading...
⚠ STRETCH · 1 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $830.00 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE | NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● $114.00 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-4,639 if capped) | Oct 16 '26 · 4d | $830.00 | 80% | 40% |
✓ SKIP CC OTM AMZN · 5c · Joint:1782
✓ GREEKS RECOVERED (SP): IBKR initial fetch returned no modelGreeks for the above leg; retry pass resolved cleanly. Data is reliable.
MARKET
STOCK$262.79Joint: 5centry ~$269.00 · -2.3%
CURRENT CC$277.50Oct 16 '26 · 4d · mark 0.29 (0.27 / 0.31)
CC STATUSOTM 5.6%94% survT:12%hist 95%hist 19%
1.55σ · extrinsic 0.29
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$267.92-2.0% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$271.11-3.2% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-4,492
CC BUYBACK-$145.00
CLOSE P/L$-4,637
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-4,492
STOCK @ $277.50$3,739
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$59/pt+0.12δ/sh
CC INC/MO$1,088
CALLS NET 90D$2.9k/mokeep 83% · 8 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$200.00C / -$250.00P / +$215.00P / -$277.50CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $277.50 is 5.6% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.29/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-4,492 · at cap $3,739. Next round in 4d: sell ~$270.00 (~1.18/sh). Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $276.26. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $285.00C Nov 06 '26 (25d) · +$8/sh room · net +$1,860✓ DEEPEST FREE · $350.00C Dec 18 '26 (67d) · +$72/sh room · net +$150.00
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 12 '26 (0d) · Oct 14 '26 (2d) · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 19 '26 (7d) · Oct 21 '26 (9d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 26 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $277.50C · Oct 16 '26 · 4d · cap now $3,739 · spot $263
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $315.00C Nov 27 '26 | roll to 5× | $282.50C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✓ CC-safe | $0.49 | 0.09 | 93% T:15% | +$100.00 | $-4,392 | $6,636 | at trip: ~+$0.77/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $277.5 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.94/sh now → $7.73 mid-life (likely $8.66–$11.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,387 simulated challenges: the $278 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 18, at $281 (overshoots $3.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$280 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | +$3.29/sh | +$1,645 cycle +$3,895 [+$911…+$1,716] · 100% credit | 69% surv 55% | +$8,303 SAFE cap gain +$12,796 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$278 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.45/sh | +$226 cycle +$2,476 [-$301…+$205] · 38% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$5,753 SAFE cap gain +$10,246 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$285 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$0.50/sh | +$250 cycle +$2,500 [-$526…+$177] · 32% credit | 72% surv 62% | +$9,813 SAFE cap gain +$14,305 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$280 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.24/sh | +$120 cycle +$2,370 [-$326…+$89] · 32% credit | 69% surv 56% | +$6,915 SAFE cap gain +$11,408 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$300 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | -$3.85/sh | -$1,923 cycle +$327 [-$3,101…-$2,191] · 1% credit | 83% surv 79% | +$16,136 SAFE cap gain +$20,629 |
| budget: banked $2,250 debit $1,923 (85% used) → whole cycle still +$327 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,945/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $290.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $11.43/sh now → $8.08 mid-life (likely $7.22–$10.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 649 simulated challenges: the $290 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 18, at $294 (overshoots $3.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$297 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | +$0.76/sh | +$381 cycle +$1,441 [-$136…+$1,001] · 67% credit | 72% surv 62% | +$15,805 SAFE cap gain +$20,298 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$290 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.05/sh | +$25 cycle +$1,085 [-$311…+$495] · 52% credit | 65% surv 52% | +$11,490 SAFE cap gain +$15,983 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$297 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$0.02/sh | +$10 cycle +$1,070 [-$481…+$550] · 47% credit | 72% surv 62% | +$15,472 SAFE cap gain +$19,964 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$302 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | -$1.72/sh | -$862 cycle +$198 [-$1,489…-$403] · 16% credit | 76% surv 68% | +$17,411 SAFE cap gain +$21,903 |
| budget: banked $1,060 debit $862 (81% used) → whole cycle still +$198 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,180/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $310.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $12.22/sh now → $8.64 mid-life (likely $5.87–$10.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 190 simulated challenges: the $310 strike is typically first touched on day 13 of 18, at $314 (overshoots $3.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$312 | 13 Nov 2026 | 23d left | +$0.26/sh | +$131 cycle +$411 [+$273…+$1,403] · 83% credit | 68% surv 55% | +$23,238 SAFE cap gain +$27,730 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$317 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | -$0.20/sh | -$101 cycle +$179 [-$24…+$1,287] · 74% credit | 72% surv 62% | +$25,709 SAFE cap gain +$30,202 |
| budget: banked $280 debit $101 (36% used) → whole cycle still +$179 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,421/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$310 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | -$0.67/sh | -$334 cycle -$54 [-$226…+$782] · 62% credit | 65% surv 51% | +$21,579 SAFE cap gain +$26,071 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $277.5C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$2,218 73% T:55% flat -$2,275 · cap +$5,956 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe | $277.5C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$320.00 87% T:27% flat -$4,172 · cap +$4,059 | $280C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$2,468 74% T:53% flat -$2,025 · cap +$7,605 -13pp surv for +14d | $280C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$3,180 72% T:59% flat -$1,312 · cap +$8,318 -2pp surv for +14d | $280C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$3,580 71% T:60% flat -$912.50 · cap +$8,718 -1pp surv for +7d · +3119% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $290C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$952.50 86% T:30% flat -$3,540 · cap +$11,685 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$3.09/sh | — | = ★ | $295C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$1,555 84% T:33% flat -$2,937 · cap +$15,085 -1pp surv for +21d | = |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) + ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $310C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$157.50 95% T:9% flat -$4,335 · cap +$22,080 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$0.74/sh | $285C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$30.00 94% T:11% flat -$4,462 · cap +$7,965 | $315C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$202.50 96% T:9% flat -$4,290 · cap +$24,923 -2pp touch for +14d | $325C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$240.00 96% T:8% flat -$4,252 · cap +$30,555 ≈ same touch for +14d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (93) · Oct 19 '26 / Oct 21 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 26 '26 +5 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $277.50C · Oct 16 '26 · 4d · cap now $3,739 · spot $263
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~17% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 5× | $272.50C Oct 14 '26 · 2d ✓ CC-safe | $0.23 | 0.07 | 93% T:13% | $-30.00 | $-4,522 | $911.36 | — |
| ▶ ● ⚠ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + SAFEST VIABLE + RISKY HARVEST | roll down to 5× | $270.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-135.00 if capped) | $0.97 | 0.20 | 80% T:40% | +$342.50 | $-4,150 | $-114.89 | ⚠ locks in $135.00 ($0.27/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (7) · Oct 12 '26 / Oct 14 '26 / Oct 16 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
loading...
⚠ STRETCH · 1 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $252.50 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE | NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● $267.50 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-1,553 if capped) | Oct 14 '26 · 2d | $252.50 | 78% | 44% |
✓ SKIP CC OTM SNDK · 1c · Neville:0865
MARKET
STOCK$1520.96Neville: 1centry ~$1636.00 · -7.0%
CURRENT CC$1,700.00Oct 16 '26 · 4d · mark 3.70 (3.50 / 3.90)
CC STATUSOTM 11.8%94% survT:12%hist 95%hist 19%
1.55σ · extrinsic 3.70
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$1620.00-6.5% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$1628.77-7.1% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-11,296
CC BUYBACK-$370.00
CLOSE P/L$-11,666
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-11,296
STOCK @ $1,700.00$7,805
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$7/pt+0.07δ/sh
CC INC/MO$2,775
CALLS NET 90D$4.1k/mokeep 96% · 4 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$1,200.00C / -$1,380.00P / +$810.00P / -$1,700.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $1700.00 is 11.8% OTM. Safe. Earning $3.70/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-11,296 · at cap $7,805. Next round in 4d: sell ~$1565.00 (~6.84/sh). Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $2167.47. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $1,755.00C Oct 23 '26 (11d) · +$55/sh room · net +$248.50✓ DEEPEST FREE · $2,420.00C Mar 19 '27 (158d) · +$720/sh room · net +$5,004
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $1,700.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 4d · cap now $7,805 · spot $1,521
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~20% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $2,070.00C Nov 20 '26 | roll to 1× | $1785.00C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✓ CC-safe | $4.95 | 0.07 | 92% T:16% | +$125.00 | $-11,171 | $16,999 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$535.71/mo of added tenor vs $1,586/mo run rate at trip: ~+$10.06/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $1700.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $92.87/sh now → $65.69 mid-life (likely $66.12–$96.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $27.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$38.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 932 simulated challenges: the $1,700 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 18, at $1,732 (overshoots $31.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,700 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$8.55/sh | +$855 cycle +$3,575 [+$194…+$1,161] · 89% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$10,865 SAFE cap gain +$22,162 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,784 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | +$11.73/sh | +$1,173 cycle +$3,893 [-$284…+$1,378] · 65% credit | 72% surv 64% | +$19,879 SAFE cap gain +$31,175 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,724 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.43/sh | +$43 cycle +$2,763 [-$923…+$95] · 28% credit | 68% surv 57% | +$12,594 SAFE cap gain +$23,891 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,824 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | +$0.00/sh | +$0 cycle +$2,720 [-$1,614…+$117] · 27% credit | 75% surv 68% | +$22,924 SAFE cap gain +$34,220 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,944 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | -$26.36/sh | -$2,636 cycle +$84 [-$4,616…-$2,647] · 3% credit | 83% surv 80% | +$32,901 SAFE cap gain +$44,197 |
| budget: banked $2,720 debit $2,636 (97% used) → whole cycle still +$84 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,189/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $1865.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $101.88/sh now → $72.07 mid-life (likely $57.89–$92.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$61.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 255 simulated challenges: the $1,865 strike is typically first touched on day 13 of 18, at $1,902 (overshoots $37.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,865 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$2.87/sh | +$287 cycle +$1,297 [+$97…+$1,582] · 79% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$25,981 SAFE cap gain +$37,277 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,869 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.96/sh | +$96 cycle +$1,106 [-$120…+$1,336] · 72% credit | 67% surv 53% | +$26,214 SAFE cap gain +$37,511 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,954 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | +$4.99/sh | +$499 cycle +$1,509 [-$359…+$1,888] · 67% credit | 72% surv 64% | +$35,375 SAFE cap gain +$46,671 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,969 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | +$0.70/sh | +$70 cycle +$1,080 [-$827…+$1,394] · 59% credit | 73% surv 66% | +$36,518 SAFE cap gain +$47,814 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$2,004 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | -$9.07/sh | -$907 cycle +$103 [-$1,925…+$300] · 33% credit | 75% surv 69% | +$39,205 SAFE cap gain +$50,502 |
| budget: banked $1,010 debit $907 (90% used) → whole cycle still +$103 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $5,108/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $1830.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $61.18/sh now → $43.27 mid-life (likely $35.03–$58.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$40.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 147 simulated challenges: the $1,830 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $1,866 (overshoots $35.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,830 | 30 Oct 2026 | 12d left | +$22.19/sh | +$2,219 cycle +$2,539 [+$2,506…+$3,153] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$23,602 SAFE cap gain +$34,898 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$2,044 | 27 Nov 2026 | 40d left | +$7.38/sh | +$738 cycle +$1,058 [+$89…+$1,537] · 78% credit | 80% surv 76% | +$44,343 SAFE cap gain +$55,639 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,889 | 30 Oct 2026 | 12d left | +$1.45/sh | +$145 cycle +$465 [-$38…+$681] · 69% credit | 73% surv 65% | +$27,731 SAFE cap gain +$39,027 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$2,074 | 27 Nov 2026 | 40d left | +$0.93/sh | +$93 cycle +$413 [-$610…+$884] · 52% credit | 82% surv 79% | +$46,831 SAFE cap gain +$58,127 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$2,094 | 27 Nov 2026 | 40d left | -$2.58/sh | -$258 cycle +$62 [-$1,033…+$499] · 38% credit | 83% surv 80% | +$48,567 SAFE cap gain +$59,863 |
| budget: banked $320 debit $258 (81% used) → whole cycle still +$62 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $3,052/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) · $1825.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $61.02/sh now → $43.15 mid-life (likely $29.59–$57.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$39.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 157 simulated challenges: the $1,825 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $1,859 (overshoots $34.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (1 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,825 | 30 Oct 2026 | 12d left | +$22.30/sh | +$2,230 cycle +$2,560 [+$2,587…+$3,421] · 100% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$23,097 SAFE cap gain +$34,393 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$2,039 | 27 Nov 2026 | 40d left | +$7.47/sh | +$747 cycle +$1,077 [+$84…+$1,886] · 76% credit | 80% surv 76% | +$43,840 SAFE cap gain +$55,136 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,884 | 30 Oct 2026 | 12d left | +$1.55/sh | +$155 cycle +$485 [-$35…+$864] · 71% credit | 73% surv 65% | +$27,226 SAFE cap gain +$38,523 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$2,069 | 27 Nov 2026 | 40d left | +$1.04/sh | +$104 cycle +$434 [-$632…+$1,238] · 55% credit | 82% surv 79% | +$46,330 SAFE cap gain +$57,626 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$2,094 | 27 Nov 2026 | 40d left | -$3.17/sh | -$317 cycle +$13 [-$1,121…+$822] · 48% credit | 83% surv 81% | +$48,518 SAFE cap gain +$59,815 |
| budget: banked $330 debit $317 (96% used) → whole cycle still +$13 cash · rolled 1 ct earn ≈ $2,999/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $1700C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$2,550 78% T:46% flat -$8,746 · cap +$10,355 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe | $1700C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$640.00 86% T:29% flat -$10,656 · cap +$8,445 | $1700C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$3,800 76% T:51% flat -$7,496 · cap +$11,605 -10pp surv for +14d | $1700C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$5,475 73% T:57% flat -$5,821 · cap +$13,280 -2pp surv for +14d | $1700C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$6,200 73% T:59% flat -$5,096 · cap +$14,005 -1pp surv for +7d · +102% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $1865C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$825.00 90% T:20% flat -$10,471 · cap +$26,235 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$19.33/sh | — | $1910C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$1,170 90% T:21% flat -$10,126 · cap +$31,381 | $1950C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$1,845 89% T:24% flat -$9,451 · cap +$36,323 -1pp surv for +14d | $1940C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$1,920 88% T:24% flat -$9,376 · cap +$35,331 -0pp surv for +0d |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) | $1830C Oct 23 '26 (11d) -$5.00 94% T:11% flat -$11,301 · cap +$21,670 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~-$0.06/sh | = ★ | $2140C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$250.00 96% T:8% flat -$11,046 · cap +$55,000 -3pp touch for +14d | = | = |
| ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $1825C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$5.00 94% T:12% flat -$11,291 · cap +$21,147 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$0.93/sh | = ★ | $2140C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$250.00 96% T:8% flat -$11,046 · cap +$55,000 cap +$315 for +14d | = | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (386) · Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +2 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $1,700.00C · Oct 16 '26 · 4d · cap now $7,805 · spot $1,521
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 1× | $1695.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d ✓ CC-safe | $2.65 | 0.06 | 92% T:15% | $-105.00 | $-11,401 | $7,167 | — |
| ▶ ● ⚠ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + SAFEST VIABLE + RISKY HARVEST | roll down to 1× | $1615.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-669.00 if capped) | $7.85 | 0.15 | 81% T:39% | +$415.00 | $-10,881 | $-848.26 | ⚠ locks in $669.00 ($6.69/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (17) · Oct 16 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
loading...
⚠ STRETCH · 4 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $2,274 · riskier, your call
loading...
✓ SKIP CC OTM SPCX · 5c · Neville:0865
MARKET
STOCK$162.18Neville: 5centry ~$178.00 · -8.9%
CURRENT CC$195.00Oct 30 '26 · 18d · mark 0.54 (0.51 / 0.57)
CC STATUSOTM 20.2%95% survT:10%hist 95%hist 19%
1.64σ · extrinsic 0.54
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$186.00-14.7% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$189.46-16.8% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-15,137
CC BUYBACK-$270.00
CLOSE P/L$-15,407
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-15,137
STOCK @ $195.00$3,035
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$54/pt+0.11δ/sh
CC INC/MO$450.00
CALLS NET 90D$1.8k/mokeep 87% · 13 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$150.00C / -$195.00P / +$135.00P / -$195.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $195.00 is 20.2% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.54/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-15,137 · at cap $3,035. ⚠ LC has 158d left. Plan rebuild within 3 months.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $205.00C Nov 06 '26 (25d) · +$10/sh room · net +$15.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $245.00C Dec 18 '26 (67d) · +$50/sh room · net +$142.50
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 12 '26 (0d) · Oct 14 '26 (2d) · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 19 '26 (7d) · Oct 21 '26 (9d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 26 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $195.00C · Oct 30 '26 · 18d · cap now $3,035 · spot $162
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $195.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 16 of 32); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $12.33/sh now → $8.72 mid-life (likely $7.02–$11.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 544 simulated challenges: the $195 strike is typically first touched on day 20 of 32, at $198 (overshoots $3.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$195 | 20 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$1.15/sh | -$577 cycle +$278 [-$867…-$14] · 24% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$3,327 SAFE cap gain +$18,465 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$198 | 20 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$1.46/sh | -$731 cycle +$124 [-$973…-$305] · 16% credit | 70% surv 57% | +$4,883 SAFE cap gain +$20,021 |
| budget: banked $855 debit $731 (85% used) → whole cycle still +$124 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,737/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $205.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 25); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $11.01/sh now → $7.79 mid-life (likely $4.93–$8.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 118 simulated challenges: the $205 strike is typically first touched on day 19 of 25, at $208 (overshoots $3.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$208 | 27 Nov 2026 | 34d left | +$0.61/sh | +$303 cycle +$568 [+$365…+$1,402] · 90% credit | 69% surv 57% | +$11,354 SAFE cap gain +$26,492 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$205 | 13 Nov 2026 | 20d left | -$0.07/sh | -$34 cycle +$231 [+$71…+$818] · 82% credit | 67% surv 52% | +$9,342 SAFE cap gain +$24,479 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$208 | 20 Nov 2026 | 26d left | +$0.01/sh | +$7 cycle +$272 [+$78…+$979] · 81% credit | 70% surv 57% | +$11,053 SAFE cap gain +$26,190 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $195C Nov 13 '26 (32d) ⚠ earn +$615.00 90% T:22% flat -$14,522 · cap +$3,650 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 03 ✓ CC-safe | — | $195C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$252.50 92% T:16% flat -$14,885 · cap +$3,288 | = ★ | = ★ |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) + ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $205C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$22.50 96% T:9% flat -$15,115 · cap +$8,595 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 03 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$0.55/sh | — | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ |
ALL CANDIDATES (38) · Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 / Nov 20 '26 / Nov 27 '26 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $195.00C · Oct 30 '26 · 18d · cap now $3,035 · spot $162
HARVEST Stock $162.18 fell below your $195.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 5 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $170.00 at +$1,382 (71% surv, T:59%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~20% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 5× | $180.00C Oct 21 '26 · 9d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-5,125 if capped) | $0.47 | 0.09 | 92% T:16% | $-35.00 | $-15,172 | $-5,305 | ⚠ locks in $5,125 ($10.25/sh) loss if capped |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 5× | $187.50C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-848.00 if capped) | $0.36 | 0.06 | 95% T:10% | $-87.50 | $-15,225 | $-1,205 | ⚠ locks in $848.00 ($1.70/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 5× | $177.50C Oct 30 '26 · 18d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-6,022 if capped) | $2.02 | 0.09 | 81% T:38% | +$742.50 | $-14,395 | $-5,912 | ⚠ locks in $6,022 ($12.04/sh) loss if capped |
| ● ⚠ SAFEST VIABLE + RISKY HARVEST ▸ if challenged | roll down to 5× | $172.50C Oct 21 '26 · 9d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-8,812 if capped) | $1.73 | 0.21 | 82% T:38% | +$592.50 | $-14,545 | $-8,831 | ⚠ locks in $8,812 ($17.62/sh) loss if capped |
SAFEST VIABLE · $172.5 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $9.28/sh now → $6.56 mid-life (likely $6.42–$10.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 857 simulated challenges: the $172 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $175 (overshoots $2.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$172 | 23 Oct 2026 | 6d left | -$5.50/sh | -$2,748 cycle -$2,238 [-$4,237…-$2,665] | 55% surv 51% | -$11,971 NOT cap gain +$3,167 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ALL CANDIDATES (23) · Oct 12 '26 / Oct 14 '26 / Oct 19 '26 / Oct 21 '26 +3 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
loading...
⚠ STRETCH · 7 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $4,578 · riskier, your call
loading...
✓ SKIP CC OTM NVDA · 10c · Main:1299
MARKET
STOCK$227.98Main: 10centry ~$228.00 · -0.0%
CURRENT CC$250.00Oct 23 '26 · 11d · mark 0.25 (0.24 / 0.26)
CC STATUSOTM 9.7%96% survT:8%hist 95%hist 6%
1.73σ · extrinsic 0.25
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$264.80-16.2% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$230.47-1.1% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-1,450
CC BUYBACK-$250.00
CLOSE P/L$-1,700
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-1,450
STOCK @ $250.00$16,057
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$0/ptsynth Δ 0.80
CC INC/MO$681.82
CALLS NET 90D$1.6k/mokeep 99% · 4 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$215.00C / -$225.00P / +$200.00P / -$250.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $250.00 is 9.7% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.25/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-1,450 · at cap $16,057. Weekly gate: EXTENDED. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $238.79. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $260.00C Nov 13 '26 (32d) · +$10/sh room · net +$355.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $320.00C Jan 15 '27 (95d) · +$70/sh room · net +$285.00
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 12 '26 (0d) · Oct 14 '26 (2d) · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 19 '26 (7d) · Oct 21 '26 (9d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 26 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $250.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 11d · cap now $16,057 · spot $228
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~18% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $270.00C Nov 27 '26 | roll to 10× | $255.00C Nov 06 '26 · 25d ✓ CC-safe | $0.62 | 0.08 | 93% T:14% | +$375.00 | $-1,075 | $20,408 | at trip: ~+$1.94/sh |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~7% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 10× | $265.00C Nov 13 '26 · 32d ✓ CC-safe | $0.41 | 0.05 | 96% T:8% | +$160.00 | $-1,290 | $28,143 | ⚠ protection, not income: ~$228.57/mo of added tenor vs $681.82/mo run rate at trip: ~-$0.22/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $250.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 25); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.00/sh now → $5.66 mid-life (likely $4.47–$7.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 577 simulated challenges: the $250 strike is typically first touched on day 16 of 25, at $252 (overshoots $2.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$257 | 27 Nov 2026 | 34d left | +$0.66/sh | +$660 cycle +$1,660 [+$91…+$1,302] · 79% credit | 72% surv 63% | +$21,707 SAFE cap gain +$23,157 |
| SS $265 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$250 | 13 Nov 2026 | 20d left | -$0.29/sh | -$293 cycle +$707 [-$676…+$472] · 42% credit | 65% surv 51% | +$15,510 SAFE cap gain +$16,960 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$257 | 20 Nov 2026 | 26d left | -$0.16/sh | -$158 cycle +$842 [-$667…+$338] · 36% credit | 74% surv 65% | +$21,200 SAFE cap gain +$22,650 |
| budget: banked $1,000 debit $158 (16% used) → whole cycle still +$842 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $6,345/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $250.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 19 of 39); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $11.87/sh now → $8.40 mid-life (likely $8.13–$11.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,071 simulated challenges: the $250 strike is typically first touched on day 19 of 39, at $253 (overshoots $2.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$250 | 27 Nov 2026 | 26d left | -$0.68/sh | -$682 cycle +$2,418 [-$1,495…-$410] · 17% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$16,595 SAFE cap gain +$18,045 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$257 | 27 Nov 2026 | 26d left | -$3.07/sh | -$3,066 cycle +$34 [-$4,068…-$3,045] · 1% credit | 73% surv 65% | +$20,081 SAFE cap gain +$21,531 |
| budget: banked $3,100 debit $3,066 (99% used) → whole cycle still +$34 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $6,151/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $260.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 12 of 25); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.32/sh now → $5.88 mid-life (likely $4.31–$6.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 220 simulated challenges: the $260 strike is typically first touched on day 18 of 25, at $263 (overshoots $2.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$267 | 27 Nov 2026 | 34d left | +$0.26/sh | +$262 cycle +$642 [-$103…+$1,257] · 70% credit | 72% surv 63% | +$29,216 SAFE cap gain +$30,666 |
| reaches SS ✓ | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$260 | 13 Nov 2026 | 20d left | -$0.68/sh | -$682 cycle -$302 [-$732…+$419] · 44% credit | 65% surv 51% | +$22,885 SAFE cap gain +$24,335 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $250C Nov 06 '26 (25d) +$775.00 89% T:22% flat -$675.00 · cap +$16,832 ✓ CC-safe | — | = ★ | $250C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$2,900 81% T:38% flat +$1,450 · cap +$18,957 -8pp surv for +14d | $250C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$3,400 80% T:42% flat +$1,950 · cap +$19,457 -2pp surv for +7d · +357% better outcome vs ≤20d · +21d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $250C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$2,900 81% T:38% flat +$1,450 · cap +$18,957 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 17 ✓ CC-safe | — | — | = ★ | = ★ |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) + ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $260C Nov 06 '26 (25d) +$145.00 95% T:9% flat -$1,305 · cap +$24,153 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~+$0.41/sh | — | = ★ | $265C Nov 13 '26 (32d) +$160.00 96% T:8% flat -$1,290 · cap +$28,143 -1pp touch for +7d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (45) · Oct 26 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 +2 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $250.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 11d · cap now $16,057 · spot $228
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 10× | $245.00C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✓ CC-safe | $0.45 | 0.08 | 92% T:15% | +$200.00 | $-1,250 | $12,282 | — |
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | roll down to 10× | $240.00C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✓ CC-safe | $0.96 | 0.16 | 85% T:30% | +$715.00 | $-735.00 | $8,822 | — |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE ▸ if challenged | roll down to 10× | $235.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d ✓ CC-safe | $0.82 | 0.19 | 82% T:36% | +$570.00 | $-880.00 | $4,701 | — |
SAFEST VIABLE · $235.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.34/sh now → $2.36 mid-life (likely $2.43–$4.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 675 simulated challenges: the $235 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $237 (overshoots $2.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (10 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$235 | 19 Oct 2026 | 5d left | -$1.83/sh | -$1,830 cycle -$1,020 [-$3,354…-$1,870] | 54% surv 51% | +$2,727 SAFE cap gain +$4,177 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ALL CANDIDATES (17) · Oct 12 '26 / Oct 14 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 19 '26 +2 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
loading...
⚠ STRETCH · 4 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $3,635 · riskier, your call
loading...
✓ SKIP CC EXPIRING WORTHLESS MU · 5c · Main:1299
MARKET
STOCK$989.48Main: 5centry ~$1050.00 · -5.8%
CURRENT CC$1,075.00Oct 14 '26 · 2d · mark 1.19 (1.12 / 1.26)
CC STATUSOTM 8.6%96% survT:8%hist 95%hist 6%
1.74σ · extrinsic 1.19
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$1028.60-4.0% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$1039.76-5.1% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-27,160
CC BUYBACK-$595.00
CLOSE P/L$-27,755
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-27,160
STOCK @ $1,075.00$20,119
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$53/pt+0.11δ/sh
CC INC/MO$8,925
CALLS NET 90D$14.2k/mokeep 81% · 21 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$880.00C / -$1,010.00P / +$340.00P / -$1,075.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $1075.00 is 8.6% OTM with 2d left. Expiring worthless. Touch odds 8% before expiry. Next round: sell ~$1020.00 CC (~4.45/sh ≈ $2,225 for 5 ct). Confirm strike/premium in TWS. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $1148.73. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $1,095.00C Oct 16 '26 (4d) · +$20/sh room · net +$290.00✓ DEEPEST FREE · $1,530.00C Mar 19 '27 (158d) · +$455/sh room · net +$10,648
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 12 '26 (0d) · Oct 14 '26 (2d) · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 19 '26 (7d) · Oct 21 '26 (9d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 26 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $1,075.00C · Oct 14 '26 · 2d · cap now $20,119 · spot $989
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 5× | $1250.00C Nov 27 '26 · 46d ✓ CC-safe mid capped $10.25 → $10.18 (above the lower strike) | $10.18 | 0.11 | 93% T:15% | +$4,493 | $-22,668 | $121,358 | at trip: ~+$6.06/sh |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~8% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 5× | $1320.00C Nov 27 '26 · 46d ✓ CC-safe mid capped $6.12 → $6.05 (above the lower strike) | $6.05 | 0.06 | 96% T:9% | +$2,430 | $-24,730 | $157,995 | at trip: ~-$1.84/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $1075.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $50.33/sh now → $35.60 mid-life (likely $35.12–$51.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $14.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$21.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 976 simulated challenges: the $1,075 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 18, at $1,090 (overshoots $15.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,106 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$4.90/sh | +$2,451 cycle +$9,451 [-$602…+$3,471] · 65% credit | 72% surv 61% | +$43,520 SAFE cap gain +$70,680 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,075 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$3.21/sh | +$1,603 cycle +$8,603 [-$541…+$2,365] · 62% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$26,710 SAFE cap gain +$53,870 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,081 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$1.10/sh | +$552 cycle +$7,552 [-$1,605…+$1,264] · 42% credit | 67% surv 54% | +$28,646 SAFE cap gain +$55,806 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,126 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | +$1.25/sh | +$625 cycle +$7,625 [-$3,115…+$1,574] · 37% credit | 74% surv 66% | +$52,238 SAFE cap gain +$79,398 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,186 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | -$13.88/sh | -$6,942 cycle +$58 [-$11,767…-$6,558] · 5% credit | 82% surv 79% | +$76,992 SAFE cap gain +$104,152 |
| budget: banked $7,000 debit $6,942 (99% used) → whole cycle still +$58 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $8,804/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $1140.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $53.38/sh now → $37.75 mid-life (likely $29.16–$47.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$31.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 391 simulated challenges: the $1,140 strike is typically first touched on day 12 of 18, at $1,156 (overshoots $16.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,171 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$2.48/sh | +$1,242 cycle +$4,317 [-$468…+$5,105] · 70% credit | 72% surv 61% | +$73,431 SAFE cap gain +$100,591 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,140 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$1.07/sh | +$535 cycle +$3,610 [-$671…+$3,584] · 66% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$56,807 SAFE cap gain +$83,967 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,141 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.81/sh | +$406 cycle +$3,481 [-$801…+$3,441] · 63% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$56,958 SAFE cap gain +$84,118 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,186 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | +$0.43/sh | +$216 cycle +$3,291 [-$1,850…+$4,138] · 58% credit | 73% surv 65% | +$80,225 SAFE cap gain +$107,385 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$1,206 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | -$5.30/sh | -$2,651 cycle +$424 [-$5,000…+$983] · 30% credit | 76% surv 69% | +$88,096 SAFE cap gain +$115,256 |
| budget: banked $3,075 debit $2,651 (86% used) → whole cycle still +$424 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $13,156/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $1110.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $26.11/sh now → $18.47 mid-life (likely $14.46–$23.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$17.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 53 simulated challenges: the $1,110 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 4, at $1,123 (overshoots $13.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$1,110 | 19 Oct 2026 | 5d left | +$3.28/sh | +$1,638 cycle +$2,268 [+$1,811…+$3,272] · 96% credit | 66% surv 51% | +$39,992 SAFE cap gain +$67,152 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$1,221 | 20 Nov 2026 | 37d left | +$4.65/sh | +$2,326 cycle +$2,956 [+$1,212…+$4,501] · 83% credit | 82% surv 78% | +$98,899 SAFE cap gain +$126,059 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$1,116 | 19 Oct 2026 | 5d left | +$0.80/sh | +$400 cycle +$1,030 [+$322…+$1,871] · 79% credit | 68% surv 55% | +$41,727 SAFE cap gain +$68,887 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$1,251 | 27 Nov 2026 | 44d left | +$1.00/sh | +$498 cycle +$1,128 [-$916…+$2,623] · 66% credit | 84% surv 82% | +$112,891 SAFE cap gain +$140,051 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $1075C Oct 30 '26 (18d) +$6,818 79% T:43% flat -$20,343 · cap +$26,936 ✓ CC-safe | $1075C Oct 26 '26 (14d) +$4,318 83% T:35% flat -$22,843 · cap +$24,436 | $1075C Nov 06 '26 (25d) +$10,130 76% T:50% flat -$17,030 · cap +$30,249 -7pp surv for +11d | $1080C Nov 20 '26 (39d) +$14,105 74% T:55% flat -$13,055 · cap +$36,988 -2pp surv for +14d | $1075C Nov 27 '26 (46d) +$17,268 72% T:58% flat -$9,893 · cap +$37,386 -2pp surv for +7d · +130% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $1140C Oct 30 '26 (18d) +$2,680 90% T:20% flat -$24,480 · cap +$58,733 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$9.68/sh | $1100C Oct 26 '26 (14d) +$2,843 88% T:24% flat -$24,318 · cap +$36,782 | $1160C Nov 06 '26 (25d) +$3,743 90% T:21% flat -$23,418 · cap +$70,853 +2pp surv for +11d | $1160C Nov 13 '26 (32d) +$5,493 88% T:26% flat -$21,668 · cap +$72,603 -2pp surv for +7d | = |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) + ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $1110C Oct 16 '26 (4d) +$47.50 97% T:7% flat -$27,113 · cap +$39,516 ✓ CC-safe ⚠ protection, not income at trip: ~-$0.84/sh | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ |
ALL CANDIDATES (316) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 19 '26 / Oct 21 '26 / Oct 23 '26 +6 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $1,075.00C · Oct 14 '26 · 2d · cap now $20,119 · spot $989
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~18% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 5× | $1055.00C Oct 14 '26 · 2d ✓ CC-safe | $1.81 | 0.09 | 93% T:14% | +$310.00 | $-26,850 | $9,372 | — |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~8% · hist surv ~95% | roll down to 5× | $1070.00C Oct 14 '26 · 2d ✓ CC-safe | $1.14 | 0.06 | 96% T:9% | $-27.50 | $-27,188 | $17,327 | — |
| ▶ ● BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 5× | $1025.00C Oct 14 '26 · 2d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-5,519 if capped) | $4.95 | 0.21 | 81% T:38% | +$1,880 | $-25,280 | $-5,643 | ⚠ locks in $5,519 ($11.04/sh) loss if capped |
| ⚠ RISKY HARVEST | roll down to 5× | $1035.00C Oct 14 '26 · 2d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-828.00 if capped) | $3.50 | 0.15 | 86% T:27% | +$1,155 | $-26,005 | $-839.73 | ⚠ locks in $828.00 ($1.66/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (13) · Oct 12 '26 / Oct 14 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
loading...
⚠ STRETCH · 2 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $2,868 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE | NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● $1,020.00 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-7,792 if capped) | Oct 14 '26 · 2d | $2,310 | 78% | 45% |
| $1,005.00 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-17,579 if capped) | Oct 12 '26 · 0d | $557.50 | 79% | 43% |
✓ SKIP CC OTM CRWV · 5c · Neville:0865
MARKET
STOCK$79.98Neville: 5centry ~$128.00 · -37.5%
CURRENT CC$100.00Oct 23 '26 · 11d · mark 0.20 (0.16 / 0.23)
CC STATUSOTM 25.0%97% survT:7%hist 95%hist 6%
1.84σ · extrinsic 0.20
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$125.45-56.8% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$128.44-60.6% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-25,638
CC BUYBACK-$97.50
CLOSE P/L$-25,735
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-25,638
STOCK @ $100.00$-14,663
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$48/pt+0.10δ/sh
CC INC/MO$265.91
CALLS NET 90D$602/mokeep 88% · 4 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$105.00C / -$120.00P / +$40.00P / -$100.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $100.00 is 25.0% OTM. Safe. Earning $0.20/sh time value. Normal operations. Hold-to-expiry: stock flat $-25,638 · at cap $-14,663. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $110.97. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $105.00C Oct 30 '26 (18d) · +$5/sh room · net +$55.00 · under CC-SS✓ DEEPEST FREE · $130.00C Mar 19 '27 (158d) · +$30/sh room · net +$2,145
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $100.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 11d · cap now $-14,663 · spot $79.98
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~20% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll to 5× | $99.00C Oct 30 '26 · 18d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-15,322 if capped) | $0.64 | 0.10 | 92% T:16% | +$222.50 | $-25,415 | $-14,989 | ⚠ locks in $15,322 ($30.64/sh) loss if capped |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~8% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll to 5× | $104.00C Oct 30 '26 · 18d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-12,806 if capped) | $0.35 | 0.07 | 96% T:9% | +$77.50 | $-25,560 | $-12,393 | ⚠ locks in $12,806 ($25.61/sh) loss if capped at trip: ~+$1.38/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $100.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.20/sh now → $4.39 mid-life (likely $3.10–$5.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 250 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 13 of 18, at $102 (overshoots $1.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$100 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.51/sh | +$257 cycle +$522 [+$251…+$667] · 99% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$14,628 NOT cap gain +$11,010 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$101 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.10/sh | +$51 cycle +$316 [-$29…+$417] · 71% credit | 69% surv 56% | -$14,292 NOT cap gain +$11,345 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$110 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | +$0.19/sh | +$93 cycle +$358 [-$141…+$566] · 63% credit | 78% surv 72% | -$9,578 NOT cap gain +$16,060 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$112 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | -$0.37/sh | -$184 cycle +$81 [-$455…+$266] · 38% credit | 80% surv 74% | -$8,790 NOT cap gain +$16,847 |
| budget: banked $265 debit $184 (69% used) → whole cycle still +$81 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,629/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $110.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 16 of 32); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.65/sh now → $7.54 mid-life (likely $5.76–$9.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 312 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 22 of 32, at $113 (overshoots $2.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$112 | 27 Nov 2026 | 30d left | -$0.89/sh | -$444 cycle +$41 [-$608…+$220] · 36% credit | 70% surv 58% | -$8,831 NOT cap gain +$16,807 |
| budget: banked $485 debit $444 (92% used) → whole cycle still +$41 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,324/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$110 | 20 Nov 2026 | 23d left | -$1.64/sh | -$822 cycle -$337 [-$999…-$198] · 18% credit | 66% surv 53% | -$10,244 NOT cap gain +$15,393 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $106.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.57/sh now → $4.65 mid-life (likely $3.08–$5.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 110 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 14 of 18, at $108 (overshoots $2.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$106 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.27/sh | +$137 cycle +$257 [+$196…+$738] · 92% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$11,700 NOT cap gain +$13,938 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$106 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | +$0.27/sh | +$136 cycle +$256 [+$195…+$736] · 92% credit | 68% surv 52% | -$11,691 NOT cap gain +$13,947 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$115 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | +$0.29/sh | +$145 cycle +$265 [-$70…+$765] · 70% credit | 77% surv 70% | -$7,013 NOT cap gain +$18,625 |
| SS $125 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder | |||||||
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$116 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | -$0.02/sh | -$8 cycle +$112 [-$237…+$606] · 65% credit | 78% surv 71% | -$6,634 NOT cap gain +$19,003 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $100C Oct 30 '26 (18d) +$185.00 93% T:14% flat -$25,452 · cap -$14,478 ⚠ locks $14,827 if capped | — | = ★ | $100C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$1,148 84% T:34% flat -$24,490 · cap -$13,516 -9pp surv for +21d | $100C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$1,368 83% T:36% flat -$24,270 · cap -$13,296 -1pp surv for +7d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $110C Nov 13 '26 (32d) ⚠ earn +$455.00 93% T:15% flat -$25,182 · cap -$8,726 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 11 ⚠ locks $9,317 if capped at trip: ~+$2.33/sh | — | — | = ★ | = ★ |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) + ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $106C Oct 30 '26 (18d) +$40.00 96% T:7% flat -$25,598 · cap -$11,334 ⚠ locks $11,780 if capped at trip: ~+$0.75/sh | — | = ★ | $130C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$132.50 97% T:6% flat -$25,505 · cap +$1,915 -1pp touch for +21d | = |
ALL CANDIDATES (102) · Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 / Nov 20 '26 +1 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $100.00C · Oct 23 '26 · 11d · cap now $-14,663 · spot $79.98
HARVEST Stock $79.98 fell below your $100.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 4 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $85.00 at +$825.00 (72% surv, T:58%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~19% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 5× | $95.00C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-17,522 if capped) | $0.42 | 0.09 | 93% T:15% | +$110.00 | $-25,528 | $-17,294 | ⚠ locks in $17,522 ($35.04/sh) loss if capped |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~9% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 5× | $98.00C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-16,005 if capped) | $0.26 | 0.06 | 95% T:10% | +$30.00 | $-25,608 | $-15,730 | ⚠ locks in $16,005 ($32.01/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ ● BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 5× | $86.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-22,150 if capped) | $0.65 | 0.19 | 84% T:33% | +$227.50 | $-25,410 | $-22,111 | ⚠ locks in $22,150 ($44.30/sh) loss if capped |
| ⚠ RISKY HARVEST | roll down to 5× | $88.00C Oct 16 '26 · 4d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-21,215 if capped) | $0.39 | 0.12 | 90% T:21% | +$97.50 | $-25,540 | $-21,144 | ⚠ locks in $21,215 ($42.43/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (13) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
loading...
⚠ STRETCH · 2 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $890.00 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE | NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $87.00 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-21,301 if capped) | Oct 23 '26 · 11d | $587.50 | 78% | 46% |
| ● $85.00 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-22,599 if capped) | Oct 16 '26 · 4d | $302.50 | 80% | 41% |
✓ SKIP CC EXPIRING WORTHLESS INTC · 5c · Neville:0865
MARKET
STOCK$101.93Neville: 5centry ~$116.50 · -12.5%
CURRENT CC$114.00Oct 14 '26 · 2d · mark 0.11 (0.05 / 0.16)
CC STATUSOTM 11.8%97% survT:6%hist 95%hist 6%
1.85σ · extrinsic 0.11
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$114.00-11.8% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$115.24-13.1% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-7,158
CC BUYBACK-$52.50
CLOSE P/L$-7,210
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT$-7,158
STOCK @ $114.00$-532.21
Δ ABOVE CAP / PT$49/pt+0.10δ/sh
CC INC/MO$787.50
CALLS NET 90D$930/mokeep 66% · 7 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$85.00C / -$100.00P / +$35.00P / -$114.00CLC / SP / HP / CC
REASON
CC $114.00 is 11.8% OTM with 2d left. Expiring worthless. Touch odds 6% before expiry. Next round: sell ~$105.00 CC (~0.46/sh ≈ $230.00 for 5 ct). Confirm strike/premium in TWS. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $133.55. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
📈 UPSIDE HATCH · buy cap headroom
(≤180d)
✓ EARLIEST FREE · $117.00C Oct 16 '26 (4d) · +$3/sh room · net +$22.50✓ DEEPEST FREE · $180.00C Mar 19 '27 (158d) · +$66/sh room · net +$1,250
loading...
CC SUGGESTIONS · CAPPED → ROLL + ROLL-DOWN SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 12 '26 (0d) · Oct 14 '26 (2d) · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d) · Nov 06 '26 (25d) · Nov 13 '26 (32d) · Nov 20 '26 (39d) · Nov 27 '26 (46d)
Forward roll suggestions· rolling from $114.00C · Oct 14 '26 · 2d · cap now $-532.21 · spot $102
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ BEST BALANCE hist touch ~15% · hist surv ~95% richer door past earnings: $140.00C Nov 27 '26 | roll to 5× | $120.00C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✓ CC-safe | $0.44 | 0.09 | 94% T:12% | +$167.50 | $-6,990 | $2,930 | at trip: ~+$0.58/sh |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~8% · hist surv ~95% | roll to 5× | $122.00C Oct 23 '26 · 11d ✓ CC-safe | $0.34 | 0.07 | 96% T:9% | +$117.50 | $-7,040 | $3,978 | at trip: ~+$0.11/sh |
BEST EV (≥65% SURV) · $127.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $8.76/sh now → $6.20 mid-life (likely $4.81–$8.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.99/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 405 simulated challenges: the $127 strike is typically first touched on day 12 of 18, at $130 (overshoots $3.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$130 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$0.56/sh | +$280 cycle +$775 [+$88…+$993] · 82% credit | 72% surv 59% | +$8,600 SAFE cap gain +$15,758 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$132 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | +$0.32/sh | +$158 cycle +$653 [-$80…+$859] · 69% credit | 73% surv 63% | +$9,527 SAFE cap gain +$16,684 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$127 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | -$0.18/sh | -$91 cycle +$404 [-$170…+$556] · 58% credit | 68% surv 52% | +$6,629 SAFE cap gain +$13,786 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$136 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | -$0.98/sh | -$492 cycle +$3 [-$850…+$170] · 30% credit | 77% surv 69% | +$11,004 SAFE cap gain +$18,161 |
| budget: banked $495 debit $492 (99% used) → whole cycle still +$3 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,114/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
SAFEST VIABLE · $132.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $9.11/sh now → $6.44 mid-life (likely $4.99–$7.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 245 simulated challenges: the $132 strike is typically first touched on day 13 of 18, at $135 (overshoots $2.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$135 | 20 Nov 2026 | 30d left | +$0.32/sh | +$158 cycle +$488 [+$152…+$993] · 84% credit | 72% surv 59% | +$10,974 SAFE cap gain +$18,131 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$137 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | +$0.06/sh | +$29 cycle +$359 [-$44…+$822] · 73% credit | 73% surv 63% | +$11,891 SAFE cap gain +$19,049 |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$132 | 6 Nov 2026 | 16d left | -$0.41/sh | -$205 cycle +$125 [-$132…+$510] · 60% credit | 68% surv 52% | +$9,014 SAFE cap gain +$16,172 |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$139 | 27 Nov 2026 | 37d left | -$0.64/sh | -$321 cycle +$9 [-$439…+$439] · 45% credit | 75% surv 66% | +$12,602 SAFE cap gain +$19,759 |
| budget: banked $330 debit $321 (97% used) → whole cycle still +$9 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,351/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell | |||||||
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) · $117.0 · if this call is challenged
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.88/sh now → $2.75 mid-life (likely $2.22–$4.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 138 simulated challenges: the $117 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $119 (overshoots $2.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv of new CC | If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$117 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$1.46/sh | +$728 cycle +$803 [+$692…+$1,044] · 99% credit | 66% surv 52% | +$1,718 SAFE cap gain +$8,875 |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$120 | 23 Oct 2026 | 9d left | +$0.15/sh | +$76 cycle +$151 [-$83…+$327] · 67% credit | 72% surv 63% | +$2,709 SAFE cap gain +$9,867 |
| Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%) | ~$138 | 27 Nov 2026 | 44d left | +$0.41/sh | +$204 cycle +$279 [-$167…+$482] · 64% credit | 85% surv 82% | +$12,342 SAFE cap gain +$19,499 |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$140 | 27 Nov 2026 | 44d left | +$0.11/sh | +$57 cycle +$132 [-$343…+$331] · 49% credit | 86% surv 84% | +$13,255 SAFE cap gain +$20,412 |
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤30d | ≤45d | ≤60d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $127C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$465.00 92% T:17% flat -$6,693 · cap +$7,071 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$1.20/sh | $120C Oct 23 '26 (11d) +$167.50 94% T:12% flat -$6,990 · cap +$2,930 | $114C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$1,710 76% T:50% flat -$5,448 · cap +$1,178 -18pp surv for +14d | $115C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$2,160 74% T:55% flat -$4,998 · cap +$2,177 -2pp surv for +14d | $114C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$2,510 73% T:58% flat -$4,648 · cap +$1,978 -1pp surv for +7d · +48% better outcome vs ≤20d · +28d |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $132C Oct 30 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$300.00 94% T:11% flat -$6,858 · cap +$9,651 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS OCT 29 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$0.30/sh | — | $116C Nov 06 '26 (25d) ⚠ earn +$1,498 79% T:44% flat -$5,660 · cap +$2,063 | $135C Nov 20 '26 (39d) ⚠ earn +$697.50 92% T:18% flat -$6,460 · cap +$11,696 +12pp surv for +14d | $135C Nov 27 '26 (46d) ⚠ earn +$830.00 91% T:20% flat -$6,328 · cap +$11,828 -1pp surv for +7d |
| ↗ ESCAPE (MIN TOUCH) + ↗ FREE ESCAPE (CREDIT) | $117C Oct 16 '26 (4d) +$30.00 97% T:6% flat -$7,128 · cap +$1,145 ✓ CC-safe at trip: ~+$0.15/sh | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ | = ★ |
ALL CANDIDATES (150) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 / Nov 06 '26 +3 · FORWARD ROLLS · new expiry past current CC
loading...
Roll-down suggestions· rolling from $114.00C · Oct 14 '26 · 2d · cap now $-532.21 · spot $102
HARVEST Stock $101.93 fell below your $114.00 call. Roll DOWN to a closer strike to harvest more premium while it stays likely to expire worthless. Each step toward spot pays more but raises touch odds — pick the survival / income tradeoff. All below CC-Safe (a rally to assignment would lock a from-entry loss), so shown flagged, not refused. 1 closer strike(s) held back: touch odds ≥50%, more likely than not to re-present this decision inside the cycle. (The 40-50% band is not hidden: see STRETCH below.) The richest was $105.00 at +$532.50 (74% surv, T:53%) — still listed in the FORWARD roll menu above, where a near-money call is priced as fresh risk rather than harvest.
| PICK | ACTION | EXPIRY · STRIKE | MID | Δ | SURV% | NET CREDIT | FLAT | CAP | NOTES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ ⚠ BEST BALANCE + RISKY HARVEST hist touch ~16% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 5× | $110.00C Oct 14 '26 · 2d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-2,678 if capped) | $0.28 | 0.11 | 94% T:13% | +$85.00 | $-7,073 | $-2,643 | ⚠ locks in $2,678 ($5.36/sh) loss if capped |
| ◆ SAFER hist touch ~8% · hist surv ~95% · not CC-safe | roll down to 5× | $111.00C Oct 14 '26 · 2d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-2,172 if capped) | $0.21 | 0.09 | 95% T:9% | +$52.50 | $-7,105 | $-2,127 | ⚠ locks in $2,172 ($4.34/sh) loss if capped |
| ▶ ● BEST EV (≥65% SURV) + SAFEST VIABLE | roll down to 5× | $107.00C Oct 14 '26 · 2d ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-4,094 if capped) | $0.68 | 0.24 | 84% T:31% | +$285.00 | $-6,873 | $-4,091 | ⚠ locks in $4,094 ($8.19/sh) loss if capped |
ALL CANDIDATES (7) · Oct 14 '26 · ROLL-DOWN · same or earlier expiry, lower strike
loading...
⚠ STRETCH · 2 roll-down(s) at touch 40-50% · up to $520.00 · riskier, your call
These clear the 70% survival floor but sit
above the 40% touch
ceiling, so they are not harvests: each carries a roughly
two-in-five chance you face this decision again before expiry. They
pay more for exactly that reason. Shown so the trade is yours to
judge, deliberately excluded from the markers above, from the summary
chip, and from the portfolio harvest total.
| STRIKE | EXPIRY · DTE | NET CREDIT | SURV | TOUCH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● $106.00 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-4,526 if capped) | Oct 14 '26 · 2d | $385.00 | 80% | 41% |
| $104.00 ✗ NOT CC-safe ($-5,846 if capped) | Oct 12 '26 · 0d | $135.00 | 77% | 46% |
✓ SKIP UNCAPPED IREN · 20c · Neville:0865
MARKET
STOCK$36.05Neville: 20centry ~$58.25 · -38.1%
CURRENT CCNO CCuncapped · gear mode
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$56.50-56.7% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$57.94-60.7% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-49,890
CLOSE P/L$-49,890
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT—
STOCK @ CAP—
CALLS NET 90D$1.7k/mokeep 17% · 39 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$45.00C / -$65.00P / +$21.00PLC / SP / HP
REASON
No CC sold. Position is riding uncapped (gear mode). LC delta=0.61, theta=$-0.015/d. Cheapest directional exposure you own. Weekly gate: PULLBACK. Reference 20W MA (bounce target) at $43.18. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
CC SUGGESTIONS · UNCAPPED → CC SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d)
⚠ No CC-safe candidate. The CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so any new CC would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe option per expiry is shown below for reference (tagged NOT CC-safe); the rest are collapsed.
New CC suggestions
⚠ NO VIABLE ABOVE-SS PICK: Stock ($36.05) is below Safe Strike ($56.50) and no candidate in this table reaches SS within the delta band. Selling ANY of the below-SS strikes would cap the fortress below breakeven. Consider: (1) ride uncapped until stock recovers, (2) rebuild with a lower LC, or (3) close and re-enter at current levels. Below-SS rows shown for reference only.
ALL CANDIDATES (3) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 · CC CANDIDATES
loading...
⚠ 34 more near-money roll(s) hidden — all below the CC-Safe Strike, each would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe few are shown (tagged NOT CC-safe) for reference.
✓ SKIP UNCAPPED APP · 1c · RetireInc:7291
MARKET
STOCK$281.55RetireInc: 1centry ~$601.00 · -53.2%
CURRENT CCNO CCuncapped · gear mode
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$588.00-108.8% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$611.59-117.2% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-35,440
CLOSE P/L$-35,440
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT—
STOCK @ CAP—
CALLS NET 90D$1.0k/mokeep 84% · 9 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$460.00C / -$540.00P / +$185.00PLC / SP / HP
REASON
No CC sold. Position is riding uncapped (gear mode). LC delta=0.42, theta=$-0.096/d. Cheapest directional exposure you own. Weekly gate: PULLBACK. Reference 20W MA (bounce target) at $381.10. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
CC SUGGESTIONS · UNCAPPED → CC SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d)
⚠ No CC-safe candidate. The CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so any new CC would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe option per expiry is shown below for reference (tagged NOT CC-safe); the rest are collapsed.
New CC suggestions
⚠ NO VIABLE ABOVE-SS PICK: Stock ($281.55) is below Safe Strike ($588.00) and no candidate in this table reaches SS within the delta band. Selling ANY of the below-SS strikes would cap the fortress below breakeven. Consider: (1) ride uncapped until stock recovers, (2) rebuild with a lower LC, or (3) close and re-enter at current levels. Below-SS rows shown for reference only.
ALL CANDIDATES (3) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 · CC CANDIDATES
loading...
⚠ 41 more near-money roll(s) hidden — all below the CC-Safe Strike, each would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe few are shown (tagged NOT CC-safe) for reference.
✓ SKIP UNCAPPED IREN · 20c · RetireInc:7291
MARKET
STOCK$36.05RetireInc: 20centry ~$65.00 · -44.5%
CURRENT CCNO CCuncapped · gear mode
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$63.43-76.0% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$66.41-84.2% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-68,300
CLOSE P/L$-68,300
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT—
STOCK @ CAP—
CALLS NET 90D$1.7k/mokeep 17% · 39 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$50.00C / -$70.00P / +$23.00PLC / SP / HP
REASON
No CC sold. Position is riding uncapped (gear mode). LC delta=0.56, theta=$-0.015/d. Cheapest directional exposure you own. Weekly gate: PULLBACK. Reference 20W MA (bounce target) at $43.18. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
CC SUGGESTIONS · UNCAPPED → CC SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d)
⚠ No CC-safe candidate. The CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so any new CC would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe option per expiry is shown below for reference (tagged NOT CC-safe); the rest are collapsed.
New CC suggestions
⚠ NO VIABLE ABOVE-SS PICK: Stock ($36.05) is below Safe Strike ($63.43) and no candidate in this table reaches SS within the delta band. Selling ANY of the below-SS strikes would cap the fortress below breakeven. Consider: (1) ride uncapped until stock recovers, (2) rebuild with a lower LC, or (3) close and re-enter at current levels. Below-SS rows shown for reference only.
ALL CANDIDATES (3) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 · CC CANDIDATES
loading...
⚠ 34 more near-money roll(s) hidden — all below the CC-Safe Strike, each would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe few are shown (tagged NOT CC-safe) for reference.
✓ SKIP UNCAPPED COPX · 20c · Joint:1782
MARKET
STOCK$85.30Joint: 20centry ~$93.00 · -8.3%
CURRENT CCNO CCuncapped · gear mode
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$93.40-9.5% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$96.13-12.7% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-21,800
CLOSE P/L$-21,800
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT—
STOCK @ CAP—
CALLS NET 90D$2.1k/mokeep 85% · 7 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$65.00C / -$90.00P / +$68.00PLC / SP / HP
REASON
No CC sold. Position is riding uncapped (gear mode). LC delta=0.81, theta=$-0.018/d. Cheapest directional exposure you own. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $96.02. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
CC SUGGESTIONS · UNCAPPED → CC SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d)
New CC suggestions
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤20d |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $96C Oct 30 '26 (18d) +$1,250 89% T:23% flat -$20,550 · cap +$1,259 ✓ CC-safe | — | = ★ |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $98.5C Oct 30 '26 (18d) +$1,000 92% T:15% flat -$20,800 · cap +$6,104 ✓ CC-safe | — | = ★ |
ALL CANDIDATES (14) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 · CC CANDIDATES
loading...
⚠ 48 more near-money roll(s) hidden — all below the CC-Safe Strike, each would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe few are shown (tagged NOT CC-safe) for reference.
✓ SKIP UNCAPPED GLXY · 125c · Main:1299BBC
⚠️
EARNINGS IN YOUR SELL WINDOW
2026-10-20 (Tue)
in 8 days
Any fresh CC you sell that expires on or after 2026-10-20 carries the earnings gap. Prefer an expiry before the print, or size down.
MARKET
STOCK$20.09Main: 125centry ~$37.00 · -45.7%
CURRENT CCNO CCuncapped · gear mode
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$39.71-97.7% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$35.77-78.0% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-162,938
CLOSE P/L$-162,938
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT—
STOCK @ CAP—
CALLS NET 90D$4.4k/mokeep 74% · 9 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$37.50C / -$37.50P / +$17.50PLC / SP / HP
REASON
No CC sold. Position is riding uncapped (gear mode). LC delta=0.45, theta=$-0.009/d. Cheapest directional exposure you own. Weekly gate: PULLBACK. Reference 20W MA (bounce target) at $24.43. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
CC SUGGESTIONS · UNCAPPED → CC SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d)
⚠ No CC-safe candidate. The CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so any new CC would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe option per expiry is shown below for reference (tagged NOT CC-safe); the rest are collapsed.
New CC suggestions
⚠ NO VIABLE ABOVE-SS PICK: Stock ($20.09) is below Safe Strike ($39.71) and no candidate in this table reaches SS within the delta band. Selling ANY of the below-SS strikes would cap the fortress below breakeven. Consider: (1) ride uncapped until stock recovers, (2) rebuild with a lower LC, or (3) close and re-enter at current levels. Below-SS rows shown for reference only.
ALL CANDIDATES (3) · Oct 16 '26 / Oct 23 '26 / Oct 30 '26 · CC CANDIDATES
loading...
⚠ 19 more near-money roll(s) hidden — all below the CC-Safe Strike, each would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe few are shown (tagged NOT CC-safe) for reference.
✓ SKIP UNCAPPED MU · 2c · Neville:0865
MARKET
STOCK$989.48Neville: 2centry ~$1235.00 · -19.9%
CURRENT CCNO CCuncapped · gear mode
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$1220.00-23.3% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$1228.05-24.1% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-51,414
CLOSE P/L$-51,414
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT—
STOCK @ CAP—
CALLS NET 90D$14.2k/mokeep 81% · 21 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$970.00C / -$1,110.00P / +$390.00PLC / SP / HP
REASON
No CC sold. Position is riding uncapped (gear mode). LC delta=0.67, theta=$-0.273/d. Cheapest directional exposure you own. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $1148.73. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
CC SUGGESTIONS · UNCAPPED → CC SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Oct 12 '26 (0d) · Oct 14 '26 (2d) · Oct 16 '26 (4d) · Oct 19 '26 (7d) · Oct 21 '26 (9d) · Oct 23 '26 (11d) · Oct 26 '26 (14d) · Oct 30 '26 (18d)
⚠ No CC-safe candidate. The CC-Safe Strike is above every available strike, so any new CC would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe option per expiry is shown below for reference (tagged NOT CC-safe); the rest are collapsed.
New CC suggestions
NO HIGH-CONVICTION PICK: no candidate clears 65% survival with a viable credit. See table for trade-offs.
ALL CANDIDATES (8) · Oct 12 '26 / Oct 14 '26 / Oct 16 '26 / Oct 19 '26 +4 · CC CANDIDATES
loading...
⚠ 173 more near-money roll(s) hidden — all below the CC-Safe Strike, each would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe few are shown (tagged NOT CC-safe) for reference.
⏸ EXCLUDED BY CSV: 8 fortress row(s)
These carry the Skip; directive in the CSV Comments column (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, not fetched, no routing verdict, no roll or CC suggestions. This is NOT the router's SKIP verdict — these rows were never routed at all. Remove the tag to bring them back; an explicit --tickers request also overrides it.
| TICKER | ACCOUNT | CT | LC | LC EXPIRY | WHY EXCLUDED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR | Joint:1782 | 150c | $23.00 | Jan 21 '28 (466d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR | Main:1299 | 50c | $25.00 | Jan 21 '28 (466d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv · also tagged: Half Max |
| BMNR | Main:1299 | 75c | $23.00 | Jan 21 '28 (466d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv · also tagged: Half Max |
| CLSK | RetireInc:7291 | 25c | $17.00 | Jan 21 '28 (466d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv |
| ENPH | RetireInc:7291 | 10c | $45.00 | Jan 21 '28 (466d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv |
| IBIT | Joint:1782 | 50c | $75.00 | Dec 17 '27 (431d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv |
| MARA | Main:1299 | 400c | $13.00 | Jan 21 '28 (466d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv |
| MARA | RetireInc:7291 | 500c | $40.00 | Jan 21 '28 (466d) | Skip; in active_fortresses.csv |
Safe Strike = max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2)
Decisions driven by CC status + LC runway + sigma survival + proactive rolls (v1.2)
Read-only — review each action in TWS before trading
python3 fortress_rebuild.py --help