FORTRESS ROLLSLifecycle Manager v1.3
⚠️
Earnings conflicts · 2
income being sold or held into an upcoming report · click to jump
PORTFOLIO ROLLUP6 fortress(es)
CAPITAL LOCKED$992,888
CLOSE P/L−$36,418
STOCK FLAT−$36,418
STOCK @ CAP−$36,418
CC INC/MO$0.00
CALLS NET 90D /MO+$4,930
BY UNDERLYING · 2 ticker(s) held more than once
What this answers: if one of these names
rips, how much of the move do you actually keep? Each card below shows
ONE fortress; this shows the whole holding. Chips are the CC strikes in
the order a rally hits them: distance from spot, contracts capped
there, survival, nearest expiry, and how many contracts are still
free above that rung. A ticker whose first cap is 6% away with
0c free above is a different position from one whose first cap is 28%
away with three quarters of the size still uncapped, and no per-card
view can tell you which you own. Reference only: no recommendation,
no new model, built from metrics the cards already computed.
QQQ $685.67 · 2 fortresses · 11c total · no caps written · CC inc/mo $0.00
11c UNCAPPED · open-ended upside
SPY $755.26 · 2 fortresses · 16c total · no caps written · CC inc/mo $0.00
16c UNCAPPED · open-ended upside
Summary · sorted by urgency · click any header to sort
| TICKER · CT | STOCK | CURRENT CC | CC RISK | OUTLOOK | CLOSE P/L | STOCK FLAT | STOCK @ CAP | ROLL-DOWN OPTIONSALLSAFESTRETCHSHORTERLINEAGE | DECISION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ · 8c Joint:1782LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $698.21-1.8% idle 207d |
$685.67▼ -0.7% CC-SS $701.29 |
— — |
NO CC | — | −$7,552 | −$7,552 | — | — | ✓ SKIP → UNCAPPED |
| SPY · 12c Joint:1782LEAPBUILDER ENTRY $763.14-1.0% $1.9k/mo 90d |
$755.26▼ -0.1% CC-SS $765.15 |
— — |
NO CC | — | −$6,870 | −$6,870 | — | — | ✓ SKIP → UNCAPPED |
| MARA · 500c ⚠ earn 7d Neville:0865LEAPBUILDERHALF MAX ENTRY $6.80-4.9% $467/mo 90d · idle 82d |
$6.47▼ -4.4% CC-SS $6.84 |
— — |
NO CC | — | −$5,250 | −$5,250 | — | — | ✓ SKIP → UNCAPPED |
| BMNR · 250c ⚠ earn 18d Neville:0865LEAPBUILDERHALF MAX ENTRY $20.67-4.3% $2.6k/mo 90d |
$19.78▼ -2.0% CC-SS $20.75 |
— — |
NO CC | — | −$10,125 | −$10,125 | — | — | ✓ SKIP → UNCAPPED |
| SPY · 4c Joint:1782 ENTRY $762.55-1.0% $1.9k/mo 90d |
$755.26▼ -0.1% CC-SS $762.55 |
— — |
NO CC | — | −$2,916 | −$2,916 | — | — | ✓ SKIP → UNCAPPED |
| QQQ · 3c Joint:1782 ENTRY $698.02-1.8% idle 207d |
$685.67▼ -0.7% CC-SS $698.02 |
— — |
NO CC | — | −$3,705 | −$3,705 | — | — | ✓ SKIP → UNCAPPED |
CALIBRATION · predicted vs realized (646 of 733 resolved, since 2026-07-03)
| PRED SURV BUCKET | N | PREDICTED | REALIZED OTM | GAP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-60% | 40 | 53% | 82% | +30pp |
| 60-70% | 44 | 66% | 80% | +13pp |
| 70-80% | 118 | 76% | 81% | +4pp |
| 80-90% | 284 | 85% | 89% | +3pp |
| 90-100% | 160 | 93% | 96% | +3pp |
Touch odds: predicted 36% vs realized 32% (n=645, 630/645 from daily highs (exact); the rest from spot samples, which undercount intraday touches).
Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.39x (W43) to 1.40x (W32) over 14 weeks; last week 0.66x. The line above is the average of those weeks, not a forecast for the next one.
Same forecasts, split by the position's own
IV. The single gap above is an average of opposite signals:
the model is close to calibrated on the high-IV names that carry most
of this book's risk, and conservative only on the quiet ones. Reading
the book-level number as "sell closer everywhere" would borrow a quiet
stock's safety margin and spend it on the most volatile position.
Split by IV rather than by ticker because IV is what actually drives
the error, and because per-ticker is unusable here (31 tickers over
646 resolutions, median n=3). Display only: no gate and no
correction reads this.
| IV BAND | N | PRED SURV | REALIZED OTM | GAP | TOUCH P→R | BREACHES |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IV < 45% | 159 | 80% | 84% | +4pp | 41% → 44% | 25 |
| IV 45-75% | 202 | 81% | 88% | +7pp | 39% → 31% | 24 |
| IV ≥ 75% | 285 | 84% | 90% | +6pp | 32% → 27% | 28 |
MEASURED, NOT ARMED · the gaps above are recorded but are not correcting survival or touch yet. Factors arm only once the graded sample has seen varied tape: ≥30 contracts, ≥6 distinct expiry weeks, ≥60 days of calendar span, ≥10 actual breaches. That gate exists because implied vol sits structurally above realized (the variance risk premium IS why selling calls pays), so a pass over one quiet or one falling stretch will always claim the model is too pessimistic and beg it to sell closer. Obeying that would strip the margin exactly when vol returns.
✓ SKIP UNCAPPED QQQ · 8c · Joint:1782 LEAPS-ONLY
MARKET
STOCK$685.67Joint: 8centry ~$698.21 · -1.8%
CURRENT CCNO CCuncapped · gear mode
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$816.94-19.1% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$701.29-2.3% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-7,552
CLOSE P/L$-7,552
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT—
STOCK @ CAP—
CALLS NET 90Dnonelast sold 207d ago
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$675.00CLEAPS-only · LC
REASON
No CC sold. Position is riding uncapped (gear mode). LC delta=0.69, theta=$-0.100/d. Cheapest directional exposure you own. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $752.97. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
CC SUGGESTIONS · UNCAPPED → CC SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Nov 02 '26 (0d) · Nov 03 '26 (1d) · Nov 04 '26 (2d) · Nov 05 '26 (3d) · Nov 06 '26 (4d) · Nov 09 '26 (7d) · Nov 10 '26 (8d) · Nov 11 '26 (9d) · Nov 12 '26 (10d) · Nov 13 '26 (11d) · Nov 16 '26 (14d) · Nov 20 '26 (18d)
New CC suggestions
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤20d |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $701C Nov 20 '26 (18d) +$8,444 66% T:70% flat +$892.00 · cap +$9,297 ✓ CC-safe | $700C Nov 16 '26 (14d) +$7,012 66% T:68% flat -$540.00 · cap +$7,317 | = ★ |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $722C Nov 20 '26 (18d) +$2,992 84% T:33% flat -$4,560 · cap +$15,359 ✓ CC-safe | $714C Nov 13 '26 (11d) +$2,860 82% T:37% flat -$4,692 · cap +$10,841 | = ★ |
ALL CANDIDATES (268) · Nov 02 '26 / Nov 03 '26 / Nov 04 '26 / Nov 05 '26 +8 · CC CANDIDATES
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⚠ 27 more near-money roll(s) hidden — all below the CC-Safe Strike, each would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe few are shown (tagged NOT CC-safe) for reference.
✓ SKIP UNCAPPED SPY · 12c · Joint:1782 LEAPS-ONLY
MARKET
STOCK$755.26Joint: 12centry ~$763.14 · -1.0%
CURRENT CCNO CCuncapped · gear mode
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$869.30-15.1% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$765.15-1.3% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-6,870
CLOSE P/L$-6,870
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT—
STOCK @ CAP—
CALLS NET 90D$1.9k/mokeep 81% · 10 legs · ticker-wide
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$735.00CLEAPS-only · LC
REASON
No CC sold. Position is riding uncapped (gear mode). LC delta=0.70, theta=$-0.099/d. Cheapest directional exposure you own. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $785.20. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
CC SUGGESTIONS · UNCAPPED → CC SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Nov 02 '26 (0d) · Nov 03 '26 (1d) · Nov 04 '26 (2d) · Nov 05 '26 (3d) · Nov 06 '26 (4d) · Nov 13 '26 (11d) · Nov 20 '26 (18d)
New CC suggestions
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤20d |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $766C Nov 20 '26 (18d) +$8,358 66% T:69% flat +$1,488 · cap +$10,555 ✓ CC-safe | $764C Nov 13 '26 (11d) +$6,780 66% T:69% flat -$90.00 · cap +$7,289 | = ★ |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $773C Nov 20 '26 (18d) +$4,968 76% T:48% flat -$1,902 · cap +$13,075 ✓ CC-safe | $768C Nov 13 '26 (11d) +$4,776 73% T:54% flat -$2,094 · cap +$8,662 | = ★ |
ALL CANDIDATES (153) · Nov 02 '26 / Nov 03 '26 / Nov 04 '26 / Nov 05 '26 +3 · CC CANDIDATES
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⚠ 17 more near-money roll(s) hidden — all below the CC-Safe Strike, each would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe few are shown (tagged NOT CC-safe) for reference.
✓ SKIP UNCAPPED MARA · 500c · Neville:0865HALF MAX LEAPS-ONLY
⚠️
EARNINGS IN YOUR SELL WINDOW
2026-11-09 (Mon)
in 7 days
Any fresh CC you sell that expires on or after 2026-11-09 carries the earnings gap. Prefer an expiry before the print, or size down.
MARKET
STOCK$6.47Neville: 500centry ~$6.80 · -4.9%
CURRENT CCNO CCuncapped · gear mode
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$26.31-306.6% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$6.84-5.7% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-5,250
CLOSE P/L$-5,250
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT—
STOCK @ CAP—
CALLS NET 90D$467/mokeep 100% · 1 leg
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$25.00CLEAPS-only · LC
REASON
No CC sold. Position is riding uncapped (gear mode). LC delta=0.37, theta=$-0.002/d. Cheapest directional exposure you own. Weekly gate: OVERSOLD. Reference 20W MA (bounce target) at $10.63. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
CC SUGGESTIONS · UNCAPPED → CC SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Nov 06 '26 (4d) · Nov 13 '26 (11d) · Nov 20 '26 (18d)
New CC suggestions
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤20d |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $7C Nov 20 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$23,750 67% T:73% flat +$18,500 · cap +$28,175 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 09 ✓ CC-safe | $7C Nov 13 '26 (11d) ⚠ earn +$18,250 68% T:69% flat +$13,000 · cap +$22,675 | = ★ |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $8.5C Nov 20 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$7,500 88% T:26% flat +$2,250 · cap +$39,306 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 09 ✓ CC-safe | $8C Nov 13 '26 (11d) ⚠ earn +$7,250 86% T:30% flat +$2,000 · cap +$29,929 | = ★ |
ALL CANDIDATES (21) · Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 / Nov 20 '26 · CC CANDIDATES
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✓ SKIP UNCAPPED BMNR · 250c · Neville:0865HALF MAX LEAPS-ONLY
⚠️
EARNINGS IN YOUR SELL WINDOW
2026-11-20 (Fri)
in 18 days
Any fresh CC you sell that expires on or after 2026-11-20 carries the earnings gap. Prefer an expiry before the print, or size down.
MARKET
STOCK$19.78Neville: 250centry ~$20.67 · -4.3%
CURRENT CCNO CCuncapped · gear mode
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$45.53-130.2% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$20.75-4.9% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-10,125
CLOSE P/L$-10,125
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT—
STOCK @ CAP—
CALLS NET 90D$2.6k/mokeep 100% · 5 legs
STRUCTURE
LEGS+$40.00CLEAPS-only · LC
REASON
No CC sold. Position is riding uncapped (gear mode). LC delta=0.50, theta=$-0.006/d. Cheapest directional exposure you own. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $29.24. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
CC SUGGESTIONS · UNCAPPED → CC SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Nov 06 '26 (4d) · Nov 13 '26 (11d) · Nov 20 '26 (18d)
New CC suggestions
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤20d |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $21C Nov 20 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$24,875 66% T:72% flat +$14,750 · cap +$30,061 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 20 ✓ CC-safe | $21C Nov 13 '26 (11d) +$17,500 69% T:66% flat +$7,375 · cap +$22,686 | = ★ |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $24C Nov 20 '26 (18d) ⚠ earn +$8,000 87% T:27% flat -$2,125 · cap +$50,837 ⚠ CROSSES EARNINGS NOV 20 ✓ CC-safe | $23C Nov 13 '26 (11d) +$6,250 87% T:28% flat -$3,875 · cap +$36,537 | = ★ |
ALL CANDIDATES (34) · Nov 06 '26 / Nov 13 '26 / Nov 20 '26 · CC CANDIDATES
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✓ SKIP UNCAPPED SPY · 4c · Joint:1782 LEAPS-ONLY
MARKET
STOCK$755.26Joint: 4centry ~$762.55 · -1.0%
CURRENT CCNO CCuncapped · gear mode
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$762.55-1.0% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$762.55-1.0% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-2,916
CLOSE P/L$-2,916
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT—
STOCK @ CAP—
CALLS NET 90D$1.9k/mokeep 81% · 10 legs · ticker-wide
REASON
No CC sold. Position is riding uncapped (gear mode). LC delta=1.00, theta=$0.000/d. Cheapest directional exposure you own. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $785.20. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
CC SUGGESTIONS · UNCAPPED → CC SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Nov 02 '26 (0d) · Nov 03 '26 (1d) · Nov 04 '26 (2d) · Nov 05 '26 (3d) · Nov 06 '26 (4d) · Nov 13 '26 (11d) · Nov 20 '26 (18d)
New CC suggestions
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤20d |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $766C Nov 20 '26 (18d) +$2,786 66% T:69% flat -$130.00 · cap +$4,166 ✓ CC-safe | $764C Nov 13 '26 (11d) +$2,260 66% T:69% flat -$656.00 · cap +$2,840 | = ★ |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $773C Nov 20 '26 (18d) +$1,656 76% T:48% flat -$1,260 · cap +$5,836 ✓ CC-safe | $768C Nov 13 '26 (11d) +$1,592 73% T:54% flat -$1,324 · cap +$3,772 | = ★ |
ALL CANDIDATES (152) · Nov 02 '26 / Nov 03 '26 / Nov 04 '26 / Nov 05 '26 +3 · CC CANDIDATES
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⚠ 18 more near-money roll(s) hidden — all below the CC-Safe Strike, each would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe few are shown (tagged NOT CC-safe) for reference.
✓ SKIP UNCAPPED QQQ · 3c · Joint:1782 LEAPS-ONLY
MARKET
STOCK$685.67Joint: 3centry ~$698.02 · -1.8%
CURRENT CCNO CCuncapped · gear mode
SAFE STRIKE
BE SAFE STRIKE$698.02-1.8% vs spot
CC-SAFE STRIKE$698.02-1.8% vs spot
P&L
FORTRESS P/L (EX-CC)$-3,705
CLOSE P/L$-3,705
SCENARIOS
STOCK FLAT—
STOCK @ CAP—
CALLS NET 90Dnonelast sold 207d ago
REASON
No CC sold. Position is riding uncapped (gear mode). LC delta=1.00, theta=$0.000/d. Cheapest directional exposure you own. Weekly gate: NEUTRAL. Reference Upper BB (CC ceiling) at $752.97. See BB ZONE in roll table below.
CC SUGGESTIONS · UNCAPPED → CC SUGGESTIONS
Expiries scanned · Nov 02 '26 (0d) · Nov 03 '26 (1d) · Nov 04 '26 (2d) · Nov 05 '26 (3d) · Nov 06 '26 (4d) · Nov 09 '26 (7d) · Nov 10 '26 (8d) · Nov 11 '26 (9d) · Nov 12 '26 (10d) · Nov 13 '26 (11d) · Nov 16 '26 (14d) · Nov 20 '26 (18d)
New CC suggestions
DOORS · INTENT × TENOR · ★ = the pick per lens · columns = best door per tenor budget · "= ★" that budget's best IS the pick · "=" nothing longer beats the shorter door · every cell also appears in the ladder below
| LENS | ★ PICK | ≤15d | ≤20d |
|---|---|---|---|
| ▶ BEST EV (≥65% SURV) | $701C Nov 20 '26 (18d) +$3,166 66% T:70% flat -$538.50 · cap +$4,061 ✓ CC-safe | $700C Nov 16 '26 (14d) +$2,630 66% T:68% flat -$1,076 · cap +$3,224 | = ★ |
| ● SAFEST VIABLE | $722C Nov 20 '26 (18d) +$1,122 84% T:33% flat -$2,583 · cap +$8,316 ✓ CC-safe | $714C Nov 13 '26 (11d) +$1,072 82% T:37% flat -$2,633 · cap +$5,867 | = ★ |
ALL CANDIDATES (263) · Nov 02 '26 / Nov 03 '26 / Nov 04 '26 / Nov 05 '26 +8 · CC CANDIDATES
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⚠ 32 more near-money roll(s) hidden — all below the CC-Safe Strike, each would lock a loss if capped. The closest-to-safe few are shown (tagged NOT CC-safe) for reference.
Safe Strike = max(LC+ND, (LC+SP+ND)/2)
Decisions driven by CC status + LC runway + sigma survival + proactive rolls (v1.2)
Read-only — review each action in TWS before trading
python3 fortress_rebuild.py --help