| 24 Aug–30 Aug | +$8,720 |
| 17 Aug–23 Aug | +$23,931 |
| 10 Aug–16 Aug | +$20,905 |
| 3 Aug–9 Aug | +$5,001 |
| 27 Jul–2 Aug | +$30,151 |
| 20 Jul–26 Jul | +$19,967 |
| Ticker | Realized | Pipeline | Next Month Forecast | Total | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | — | $2,052 | $13,784 | $15,836 | |
| SNDK | — | — | $5,794 | $5,794 | |
| COIN | $3,989 | — | -$520 | $3,469 | |
| GOOG | $1,685 | — | $510 | $2,195 | |
| AMD | $1,030 | $930 | — | $1,960 | |
| IREN | -$40 | $1,680 | -$160 | $1,480 | |
| GLXY | — | $1,300 | — | $1,300 | |
| BMNR | $1,100 | — | — | $1,100 | |
| RKLB | — | $1,040 | — | $1,040 | |
| QCOM | — | $920 | — | $920 | |
| SPCX | $320 | $505 | — | $825 | |
| AMZN | $310 | $410 | — | $720 | |
| SPY | $696 | — | — | $696 | |
| NVDA | — | $670 | — | $670 | |
| INTC | $226 | $375 | — | $601 | |
| CRWV | — | $430 | — | $430 | |
| APP | — | $250 | — | $250 | |
| COPX | — | $220 | — | $220 | |
| PATH | -$70 | — | — | -$70 | |
| NEM | — | -$200 | — | -$200 | |
| HIMS | — | -$450 | — | -$450 | |
| NOW | — | — | -$1,130 | -$1,130 | |
| DELL | — | -$1,446 | — | -$1,446 |
| Ticker | Contracts | Entry Price (u) | Today's Price | Safe Strike | Cost (Debit) | Invested Capital | Max Loss | Odds of Max Lossfinishing below barrier | Risk Mult | Notional Exposure | Leverage | Income (Monthly)forward est. | Income (Monthly)historical avg | ROI on IC | ROI on ML | Max Loss % of Total | Recovery (months) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHORT TERM · income / covered-call book · 24 fortresses | |||||||||||||||||
| MU | 5 | $1,050 | $1,016.59 | $1,028.60 | $148.60 | $74,300 | $419,300 | — | 5.64x | $525,000 | 7.07x | $10,350 | $16,982 | 167.16% | 29.62% | 9.84% | 40.5 |
| GLD | 10 | $465 | $406.77 | $456.00 | $136.00 | $136,000 | $256,000 | — | 1.88x | $465,000 | 3.42x | $412 CHECK | $3,366 | 3.63% | 1.93% | 6.01% | 622.0 |
| MU | 2 | $1,235 | $1,016.59 | $1,220.00 | $250.00 | $50,000 | $198,000 | — | 3.96x | $247,000 | 4.94x | $1,024 CHECK | $7,206 | 24.58% | 6.21% | 4.65% | 193.3 |
| COIN | 8 | $211 | $184.64 | $210.90 | $16.80 | $13,440 | $137,440 | — | 10.23x | $168,800 | 12.56x | $1,672 | $1,015 | 149.25% | 14.59% | 3.23% | 82.2 |
| META | 3 | $604 | $616.77 | $601.50 | $73.00 | $21,900 | $117,900 | — | 5.38x | $181,200 | 8.27x | $2,732 | $2,292 | 149.72% | 27.81% | 2.77% | 43.1 |
| IREN | 20 | $65 | $44.68 | $63.43 | $6.85 | $13,700 | $107,700 | — | 7.86x | $130,000 | 9.49x | $1,327 REALIZED | $1,327 | 116.27% | 14.79% | 2.53% | 81.1 |
| SNDK | 1 | $1,636 | $1,740.00 | $1,620.00 | $420.00 | $42,000 | $99,000 | — | 2.36x | $163,600 | 3.90x | $6,480 | $4,493NEW | 185.14% | 78.55% | 2.32% | 15.3 |
| IREN | 20 | $58 | $44.68 | $56.50 | $3.00 | $6,000 | $94,000 | — | 15.67x | $116,500 | 19.42x | $236 CHECK | $1,325 | 47.28% | 3.02% | 2.21% | 397.6 |
| DELL | 3 | $408 | $524.14 | $398.00 | $58.00 | $17,400 | $89,400 | 12%●<$150 by Jan'28 | 5.14x | $122,400 | 7.03x | $5,516 | $3,215 | 380.40% | 74.04% | 2.10% | 16.2 |
| QCOM | 5 | $228 | $168.74 | $224.00 | $34.00 | $17,000 | $77,000 | — | 4.53x | $114,000 | 6.71x | $2,758 REALIZED | $2,758 | 194.71% | 42.99% | 1.81% | 27.9 |
| RKLB | 6 | $148 | $64.26 | $141.55 | $26.55 | $15,930 | $69,930 | 49%●<$45 by Jan'28 | 4.39x | $88,800 | 5.57x | $8,511 REALIZED | $8,511 | 641.10% | 146.04% | 1.64% | 8.2 |
| MSTR | 4 | $163 | $142.80 | $161.00 | $12.00 | $4,800 | $56,800 | — | 11.83x | $65,200 | 13.58x | $724 | $449 | 180.90% | 15.29% | 1.33% | 78.5 |
| IREN | 20 | $45 | $44.68 | $44.00 | $16.00 | $32,000 | $56,000 | — | 1.75x | $90,000 | 2.81x | $977 | $1,595 | 36.65% | 20.94% | 1.31% | 57.3 |
| IREN | 20 | $45 | $44.68 | $44.00 | $16.00 | $32,000 | $56,000 | — | 1.75x | $90,000 | 2.81x | $977 | $1,595 | 36.65% | 20.94% | 1.31% | 57.3 |
| ETHASKIP | 50 | $18 | $18.52 | $17.33 | $4.33 | $21,650 | $51,650 | 32%●<$10 by Jan'28 | 2.39x | $88,400 | 4.08x | $120DEFERRED | $120 | SKIP | SKIP | 1.21% | 431.0 |
| AMZN | 5 | $269 | $258.51 | $267.92 | $67.92 | $33,960 | $51,460 | — | 1.52x | $134,500 | 3.96x | $630 | $2,124NEW | 22.26% | 14.69% | 1.21% | 81.7 |
| CRWV | 5 | $128 | $89.36 | $125.45 | $20.45 | $10,225 | $50,225 | 33%●<$40 by Jan'28 | 4.91x | $64,000 | 6.26x | $1,530 REALIZED | $1,530 | 179.54% | 36.55% | 1.18% | 32.8 |
| MU | 1 | $805 | $1,016.59 | $792.36 | $114.72 | $11,472 | $49,472 | — | 4.31x | $80,500 | 7.02x | $3,852 | $1,451 | 402.93% | 93.43% | 1.16% | 12.8 |
| APP | 1 | $601 | $320.56 | $588.00 | $128.00 | $12,800 | $48,300 | — | 3.77x | $60,100 | 4.70x | $1,351 REALIZED | $1,351 | 126.65% | 33.56% | 1.13% | 35.8 |
| NOW | 10 | $108 | $141.26 | $108.93 | $27.85 | $27,850 | $47,850 | — | 1.72x | $108,000 | 3.88x | $1,852 CHECK | $135 | 79.78% | 46.44% | 1.12% | 25.8 |
| ENPHSKIP | 10 | $59 | $36.37 | $56.15 | $7.30 | $7,300 | $47,300 | 39%●<$20 by Jan'28 | 6.48x | $59,000 | 8.08x | $524DEFERRED | $524 | SKIP | SKIP | 1.11% | 90.3 |
| INTC | 5 | $116 | $95.80 | $114.00 | $29.00 | $14,500 | $47,000 | — | 3.24x | $58,250 | 4.02x | $232 CHECK | $2,439 | 19.17% | 5.91% | 1.10% | 202.9 |
| AMD | 2 | $494 | $477.57 | $489.91 | $69.82 | $13,964 | $41,964 | — | 3.01x | $98,800 | 7.08x | $1,123 | $3,666NEW | 96.47% | 32.10% | 0.98% | 37.4 |
| NEM | 5 | $117 | $128.09 | $114.54 | $27.04 | $13,520 | $28,520 | — | 2.11x | $58,500 | 4.33x | $514 | $358 | 45.64% | 21.64% | 0.67% | 55.5 |
| Short subtotal | 221 | — | — | — | — | $643,711 | $2,298,211 | — | 3.57x | $3,377,550 | 5.25x | $54,780 +$644 deferred |
$69,830 | 106.93% | 29.89% | 54.22% | 40.1 |
| LONG TERM · structural — capital gains, not CC income · 19 fortresses | |||||||||||||||||
| GLXY | 125 | $37 | $26.33 | $39.71 | $2.21 | $27,625 | $277,625 | 53%●<$17.5 by Jan'28 | 10.05x | $462,500 | 16.74x | $3,268 CHECK | $271 | 141.94% | 14.12% | 6.52% | 85.0 |
| COIN | 25 | $330 | $184.64 | $563.00 | $63.00 | $157,500 | $232,500 | — | 1.48x | $825,000 | 5.24x | $3,171 REALIZED | $3,171 | 24.16% | 16.37% | 5.46% | 73.3 |
| BMNRSKIPHALF MAX | 50 | $22 | $24.97 | $65.83 | $40.83 | $204,150 | $219,150 | — | 1.07x | $110,000 | 0.54x | $90DEFERRED | $90 | SKIP | SKIP | 5.14% | 2,432.2 |
| BMNRSKIPHALF MAX | 75 | $17 | $24.97 | $53.26 | $30.26 | $226,950 | $174,450 | — | 0.77x | $127,500 | 0.56x | $135DEFERRED | $135 | SKIP | SKIP | 4.09% | 1,290.8 |
| GOOG | 15 | $335 | $335.31 | $373.00 | $73.00 | $109,500 | $162,000 | — | 1.48x | $502,500 | 4.59x | $4,012 | $4,151 | 43.96% | 29.72% | 3.80% | 40.4 |
| MARASKIP | 400 | $10 | $11.31 | $16.75 | $3.75 | $150,000 | $150,000 | BREACHED●28% back >$13 by Jan'28 | 1.00x | $420,000 | 2.80x | N/A | $0NEW | SKIP | SKIP | 3.52% | N/A |
| SPY | 12 | $695 | $770.19 | $764.00 | $124.00 | $148,800 | $148,800 | — | 1.00x | $834,000 | 5.60x | $4,166 | $1,195 | 33.60% | 33.60% | 3.49% | 35.7 |
| COPX | 20 | $93 | $90.66 | $93.40 | $28.40 | $56,800 | $100,800 | — | 1.77x | $186,000 | 3.27x | $1,286 | $2,109 | 27.16% | 15.31% | 2.37% | 78.4 |
| BMNRSKIPHALF MAX | 150 | $17 | $24.97 | $36.42 | $13.42 | $201,300 | $96,300 | — | 0.48x | $255,000 | 1.27x | $270DEFERRED | $270 | SKIP | SKIP | 2.26% | 356.3 |
| NVDA | 10 | $228 | $230.36 | $264.80 | $49.80 | $49,800 | $74,800 | — | 1.50x | $228,000 | 4.58x | $3,060 | $0NEW | 73.73% | 49.09% | 1.76% | 24.4 |
| MSTR | 10 | $395 | $142.80 | $233.00 | $53.00 | $53,000 | $53,000 | — | 1.00x | $395,000 | 7.45x | $2,025 CHECK | $228 | 45.85% | 45.85% | 1.24% | 26.2 |
| MARASKIP | 500 | $10 | $11.31 | $41.04 | $1.04 | $52,000 | $52,000 | BREACHED●5% back >$40 by Jan'28 | 1.00x | $515,000 | 9.90x | $40DEFERRED | $40 | SKIP | SKIP | 1.22% | 1,309.7 |
| GOOG | 5 | $369 | $335.31 | $398.00 | $51.00 | $25,500 | $48,000 | — | 1.88x | $184,500 | 7.24x | $126 CHECK | $1,402 | 5.93% | 3.15% | 1.13% | 381.0 |
| SPCX | 5 | $178 | $147.95 | $186.00 | $27.00 | $13,500 | $43,500 | — | 3.22x | $89,000 | 6.59x | $268 CHECK | $2,208 | 23.79% | 7.38% | 1.02% | 162.6 |
| GOOG | 5 | $335 | $335.31 | $392.50 | $82.50 | $41,250 | $41,250 | — | 1.00x | $167,500 | 4.06x | $1,337 | $1,384 | 38.91% | 38.91% | 0.97% | 30.8 |
| IGV | 12 | $85 | $104.57 | $96.50 | $26.50 | $31,800 | $31,800 | — | 1.00x | $102,000 | 3.21x | $756 | $397 | 28.53% | 28.53% | 0.75% | 42.1 |
| HIMS | 15 | $20 | $27.71 | $17.47 | $4.93 | $7,395 | $29,895 | 13%●<$5 by Jan'28 | 4.04x | $30,000 | 4.06x | $887 | $542 | 144.00% | 35.62% | 0.70% | 33.7 |
| CLSKSKIP | 25 | $17 | $12.69 | $20.74 | $3.74 | $9,350 | $26,850 | 57%●<$10 by Jan'28 | 2.87x | $42,500 | 4.55x | N/A | $-751 | SKIP | SKIP | 0.63% | N/A |
| IBITSKIP | 50 | $68 | $45.23 | $70.58 | $4.42 CR | $22,100 CR | $-22,100 | — | 1.00x | $337,500 | -15.27x | N/A | — | SKIP | SKIP | N/A | N/A |
| Long subtotal | 1509 | — | — | — | — | $1,544,120 | $1,940,620 | 10% under hedge | 1.26x | $5,813,500 | 3.76x | $24,361 +$535 deferred |
$16,841 | 40.46% | 23.50% | 45.78% | 51.1 |
| TOTAL | 1730 | — | — | — | — | $2,187,831 | $4,238,831 | 5% under hedge | 1.94x | $9,191,050 | 4.20x | $79,141* +$1,179 deferred |
$86,671 | 71.02%* | 27.58%* | 100.00% | 43.5 |
| Cluster | Forts | Tickers | Max Loss | % of Book | ML Under Hedge (now) | ML Likely | Under / Likely / Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto beta | 17 | MARA×2GLXYCLSKETHACRWVBMNR×3COIN×2IREN×4MSTR×2 | $1,891,690 | 45% | $202,000 · 2 | $304,475 · 2 | |
| Space / defense | 2 | RKLBSPCX | $113,430 | 3% | — | — | |
| Clean energy | 1 | ENPH | $47,300 | 1% | — | — | |
| Semis / AI infra | 8 | DELLMU×3QCOMNVDAINTCAMD | $996,936 | 24% | — | — | |
| Software / apps | 3 | HIMSAPPNOW | $126,045 | 3% | — | — | |
| Precious metals | 2 | GLDNEM | $284,520 | 7% | — | — | |
| Mega-cap tech | 5 | GOOG×3METAAMZN | $420,610 | 10% | — | — | |
| Index ETF | 2 | SPYIGV | $180,600 | 4% | — | — | |
| Materials | 1 | COPX | $100,800 | 2% | — | — | |
| Other | 2 | SNDKIBIT | $76,900 | 2% | — | — |
| Ticker | Entry | Exit | Price | Notional MTM | CC Income | HP Rolls | DBB Cost | Net P&L | Recovery | Ann. ROI / Mths to Recover | Structure | IC / ML |
|---|
| Month | Fortresses | Capital (IC) | Capital (ML) | CC Income | ROI on IC | ROI on ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb'26 | 21 | $1,315,041 | $2,159,966 | +$115,167 | 114% | 70% |
| Mar'26 | 23 | $1,708,008 | $2,704,159 | +$99,190 | 68% | 43% |
| Apr'26 | 44 | $1,914,207 | $3,192,137 | +$65,000 | 41% | 25% |
| May'26 | 53 | $1,886,764 | $3,281,519 | +$26,465 | 17% | 9% |
| Jun'26 | 51 | $1,997,447 | $3,934,010 | +$85,163 | 52% | 26% |
| Jul'26 | 43 | $2,028,391 | $4,105,328 | +$127,640 | 74% | 37% |
| Aug'26 | 45 | $2,102,503 | $4,226,627 | +$61,410 | 34% | 17% |
| Sep'26 (MTD) | 42 | $2,190,011 | $4,231,011 | +$9,246 | 31% | 16% |
| BLENDED (since Feb 1) | — | — | — | +$589,281 | 53% | 29% |
| ACTIVE, RECENT (60d) | 42 | $2,029,021 | $4,012,871 | +$186,182 | 56% | 28% |
| Ticker | MTM (live P&L) | Net CC Premium | Cushion (net CC ÷ drawdown) |
|---|---|---|---|
| COIN×2UNDERWATER | −$253,588 | +$19,390 | 8% |
| GLXYUNDERWATER | −$133,375 | +$3,525 | 3% |
| IBITUNDERWATER | −$111,350 | −$632 | -1% |
| IREN×4UNDERWATER | −$69,060 | +$32,340 | 47% |
| MSTR×2UNDERWATER | −$61,080 | +$5,008 | 8% |
| GLDUNDERWATER | −$58,230 | +$22,780 | 39% |
| RKLBRECOVERING | −$50,244 | +$27,120 | 54% |
| MU×3RECOVERED | −$39,228 | +$63,297 | 161% |
| QCOMUNDERWATER | −$29,630 | +$8,790 | 30% |
| APPUNDERWATER | −$28,044 | +$4,305 | 15% |
| ENPHUNDERWATER | −$22,630 | +$1,670 | 7% |
| CRWVUNDERWATER | −$19,320 | +$4,875 | 25% |
| GOOG×3RECOVERED | −$16,225 | +$28,830 | 178% |
| SPCXUNDERWATER | −$15,025 | +$5,730 | 38% |
| CLSKUNDERWATER | −$10,775 | −$1,950 | -18% |
| INTCRECOVERING | −$10,350 | +$9,136 | 88% |
| AMZNUNDERWATER | −$5,245 | +$1,675 | 32% |
| COPXRECOVERED | −$4,680 | +$6,720 | 144% |
| AMDRECOVERING | −$3,286 | +$2,770 | 84% |
| NVDAPROFIT | +$2,360 | +$0 | ✓ in profit |
| METAPROFIT | +$3,831 | +$7,305 | ✓ in profit |
| ETHAPROFIT | +$4,200 | +$500 | ✓ in profit |
| NEMPROFIT | +$5,545 | +$1,660 | ✓ in profit |
| SNDKPROFIT | +$10,400 | +$3,247 | ✓ in profit |
| HIMSPROFIT | +$11,565 | +$2,580 | ✓ in profit |
| IGVPROFIT | +$23,484 | +$2,232 | ✓ in profit |
| NOWPROFIT | +$33,260 | +$850 | ✓ in profit |
| DELLPROFIT | +$34,842 | +$7,500 | ✓ in profit |
| MARA×2PROFIT | +$82,900 | +$120 | ✓ in profit |
| SPYPROFIT | +$90,228 | +$5,652 | ✓ in profit |
| BMNR×3PROFIT | +$194,175 | +$2,442 | ✓ in profit |
| Ticker | Jan'26 | Feb'26 | Mar'26 | Apr'26 | May'26 | Jun'26 | Jul'26 | Aug'26 | Sep'26 | Total | W/L |
|---|
model_ledger.jsonl; grade matured windows with sheet_to_pf.py --score-model — after a month it starts answering "which tickers stood up to their predictions", including whether the exclusions were right.
Built for: capital preservation · all-weather income · diversification · ROIC. Not financial advice.| Constituent | Role | Cluster | Max Loss alloc | Weight | Invested Capital | Exp. Income /mo | ROI on ML | ROI on IC | V27 Fwd /moexpected value | FIGHT /mo@ -25% drawdown · ceiling |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | BALLAST | Precious metals | $150,000 | 15% | $79,688live | $1,972 | 16% | 30% | — | — |
| MU | CORE | Semis / AI infra | $150,000 | 15% | $30,544live | $5,768 | 46% | 227% | — | — |
| RKLBCAPPED | YIELD | Space / defense | $150,000 | 15% | $34,170live | $12,500 | 100% | 439% | — | — |
| INTC | YIELD | Semis / AI infra | $103,616 | 10% | $31,967live | $5,378 | 62% | 202% | — | — |
| SPY | BALLAST | Index ETF | $98,275 | 10% | $98,275live | $789 | 10% | 10% | — | — |
| SPCX | YIELD | Space / defense | $93,779 | 9% | $29,104live | $4,760 | 61% | 196% | — | — |
| IREN | CRYPTO | Crypto beta | $80,000 | 8% | $21,345live | $1,490 | 22% | 84% | — | — |
| GOOG | CORE | Mega-cap tech | $76,107 | 8% | $53,388live | $2,101 | 33% | 47% | — | — |
| DELL | CORE | Semis / AI infra | $35,278 | 4% | $6,866live | $1,269 | 43% | 222% | — | — |
| IGV | BALLAST | Index ETF | $32,681 | 3% | $32,681live | $408 | 15% | 15% | — | — |
| QCOM | CORE | Semis / AI infra | $30,264 | 3% | $6,682live | $1,084 | 43% | 195% | — | — |