RECOMMENDED ROLL
SP $65P Jan'28 -> $35P Jan'28
Cheapest roll that reaches cushion 1.21x (target 1.00). Assignment price drops $65 to $35; early-assignment risk HIGH to MODERATE.
Roll Cost$439,500
Per Share$+29.30
New Safe Strike$29.9
Max Loss$188,550 -> $178,050
Cushion1.21x
Margin-$36,311
Close:
Buy 150x Jan'28 $65POpen:
Sell 150x Jan'28 $35PCandidate lower strikes (Jan'28, 596d)
Plain English: Extrinsic = time value the put holder GIVES UP by exercising early. Carry = interest they GAIN by cashing in the strike now. Cushion = give-up / gain; above 1 they would rather hold (you are safe), below 1 they exercise (you get assigned at the strike). Compare each New ML against current $188,550.
| New SP | Roll Cost | Extrinsic
(give up) | Carry
(gain) | Cushion | Safe? | Gap | New SS | New ML | Net Δ | Margin |
|---|
| $60P | $91,500 | $1.15 | $3.79 | 0.30x | no | $35 | $30.8 | $205,050 | 152 | -$3,464 |
| $55P | $166,500 | $0.69 | $3.48 | 0.20x | no | $30 | $30.8 | $205,050 | 147 | -$7,544 |
| $50P | $234,750 | $1.02 | $3.16 | 0.32x | no | $25 | $30.6 | $198,300 | 141 | -$12,521 |
| $47P | $288,750 | $1.34 | $2.97 | 0.45x | no | $22 | $30.9 | $207,300 | 137 | -$16,310 |
| $45P | $302,250 | $1.52 | $2.85 | 0.53x | no | $20 | $30.4 | $190,800 | 134 | -$18,990 |
| $43P | $335,250 | $1.77 | $2.72 | 0.65x | no | $18 | $30.5 | $193,800 | 132 | -$21,800 |
| $40P | $372,000 | $2.29 | $2.53 | 0.91x | no | $15 | $30.2 | $185,550 | 126 | -$26,561 |
| $38P | $397,500 | $2.40 | $2.40 | 1.00x | no | $13 | $30.0 | $181,050 | 123 | -$30,340 |
| $35P ◀ | $439,500 | $2.67 | $2.21 | 1.21x | YES | $10 | $29.9 | $178,050 | 117 | -$36,311 |
| $33P | $463,500 | $3.02 | $2.09 | 1.45x | YES | $8 | $29.7 | $172,050 | 117 | -$40,476 |
| $30P | $500,250 | $3.54 | $1.90 | 1.87x | YES | $5 | $29.5 | $163,800 | 107 | -$47,900 |
| $28P | $525,000 | $4.02 | $1.77 | 2.27x | YES | $3 | $30.6 | $158,550 | 103 | -$53,106 |
NOTES:
• Extrinsic (time value): the part of the put price above its intrinsic value (strike minus stock). It is what the holder loses if they exercise early. Near zero = they lose almost nothing by exercising now.
• Carry: the interest the holder earns by exercising now and banking the strike cash until expiry (= strike x (1 - e^-rT)). Bigger strike = bigger carry.
• Cushion = extrinsic / carry = give-up vs gain. >= 1 means the holder gives up more than they gain, so they hold and you are safe. Below 1, exercising pays them and you get assigned at the strike.
• Roll Cost = buy back the current short put (at ask) minus sell the new one (at bid), times shares. A debit; it pays down the short-put obligation.
• New SS / New ML / Gap recomputed with the new SP strike and the added debit (LC and HP unchanged). Current Max Loss is $188,550. Gap = new SP - HP; kept > 0 so the structure stays a valid spread.
• * = estimated price (deep ITM / after hours); verify during RTH. Read-only / advisory; no orders are placed.