RESTRUCTURE ANALYSIS: COIN (Dec 17, 2027, 527d remaining) v6-BETA

Stock: $157.94 | Contracts: 25 | Current: 500C/330P/300P
Put Spread: 100% of max loss ($232,496) | LC Delta: 0.238
Generated: 2026-07-08 23:22:58

CURRENT POSITION

LegStrikeExpiryDTEQty MidIntrinsicTime ValDeltaUnrealized
HP$300.0PDec'27527d+25$157.875$142.060$15.8150.621$188,951
SP$330.0PDec'27527d-25$184.225$172.060$12.1650.671$-212,532
LC$500.0CDec'27527d+25$14.225$0.000$14.2250.238$-164,619

RESTRUCTURE (LC_SP)

Put SpreadEXHAUSTED (100% of max loss)
LC VitalityMODERATE (delta 0.238)
SP DepthDEEP ITM (109%)
TimeSTRONG (527d remaining)
Safe Strike$563.00 (3.6x stock)
Repairs8 of 8 lens picks LOWER the safe strike (improve recovery)
AI vs HoldAI pick recovers to $0 at $308 (1.9x) · starts beating do-nothing above $215 (1.4x)

Current Max Loss: $232,496 | Current Recovery: $563.00 | 71,077 candidates evaluated

BEST FOR CREDIT

LC $480C / SP $360P / HP $300P (LC_SP)
Maximizes cash returned. You collect CR $39,375 (17% of current ML back). No new capital into the trade.
CostCR $39,375
ML Change+$35,625
Recovery$563.00 -> $527.25
Delta8.7
E[P&L]$-140,137
P(Recovery)9%
SP Assign Cushion0.84 (ELEVATED)
Margin+$9,588

Close:

Sell 25x 500C @ $11.90Buy 25x 330P @ $187.45

Open:

Buy 25x Dec 17 '27 $480C @ $16.70Sell 25x Dec 17 '27 $360P @ $208.00
P&L Scenarios (Current BE: $563.00 | Repair BE: $527.25)
StockChangeP(≥)P&LDo NothingDiff
$78.97-50%77%$-268,121$-232,496$-35,625
$157.940%50%$-268,121$-232,496$-35,625
$315.88100%23%$-228,421$-192,796$-35,625
$330.00109%21%$-193,121$-157,496$-35,625
$360.00128%19%$-118,121$-157,496$+39,375
$500.00217%11%$-68,121$-157,496$+89,375
$527.25 ◀234%9%$4$-89,371$+89,375
$631.76300%7%$261,279$171,904$+89,375
$789.70400%4%$656,129$566,754$+89,375

BEST FOR MARGIN

LC $480C / SP $350P / HP $300P (LC_SP)
Lowest ML increase among all credit candidates. ML change +$33,125 (14% increase vs current $232,496). Still collects CR $16,875.
CostCR $16,875
ML Change+$33,125
Recovery$563.00 -> $536.25
Delta8.3
E[P&L]$-142,369
P(Recovery)9%
SP Assign Cushion0.89 (ELEVATED)
Margin+$7,033

Close:

Sell 25x 500C @ $11.90Buy 25x 330P @ $187.45

Open:

Buy 25x Dec 17 '27 $480C @ $16.70Sell 25x Dec 17 '27 $350P @ $199.00
P&L Scenarios (Current BE: $563.00 | Repair BE: $536.25)
StockChangeP(≥)P&LDo NothingDiff
$78.97-50%77%$-265,621$-232,496$-33,125
$157.940%50%$-265,621$-232,496$-33,125
$315.88100%23%$-225,921$-192,796$-33,125
$330.00109%21%$-190,621$-157,496$-33,125
$350.00122%19%$-140,621$-157,496$+16,875
$500.00217%11%$-90,621$-157,496$+66,875
$536.25 ◀240%9%$4$-66,871$+66,875
$631.76300%7%$238,779$171,904$+66,875
$789.70400%4%$633,629$566,754$+66,875

BEST FOR RECOVERY

LC $300C / SP $360P / HP $300P (LC_SP)
Lowest recovery among credit candidates with ML increase under 50% of current ML. Recovery at $362.8 (2.3x stock), collects CR $375, ML change +$74,625.
CostCR $375
ML Change+$74,625
Recovery$563.00 -> $362.85
Delta13.1
E[P&L]$-103,620
P(Recovery)18%
SP Assign Cushion0.84 (ELEVATED)
Margin+$37,221

Close:

Sell 25x 500C @ $11.90Buy 25x 330P @ $187.45

Open:

Buy 25x Dec 17 '27 $300C @ $32.30Sell 25x Dec 17 '27 $360P @ $208.00
P&L Scenarios (Current BE: $563.00 | Repair BE: $362.85)
StockChangeP(≥)P&LDo NothingDiff
$78.97-50%77%$-307,121$-232,496$-74,625
$157.940%50%$-307,121$-232,496$-74,625
$315.88100%23%$-227,721$-192,796$-34,925
$330.00109%21%$-157,121$-157,496$+375
$360.00128%19%$-7,121$-157,496$+150,375
$362.85 ◀130%18%$4$-157,496$+157,500
$394.85150%16%$80,004$-157,496$+237,500
$473.82200%12%$277,429$-157,496$+434,925
$500.00217%11%$342,879$-157,496$+500,375
$631.76300%7%$672,279$171,904$+500,375
$789.70400%4%$1,067,129$566,754$+500,375
CC Income Overlay

Conservative (at SS)

$370C @ $0.01 | 8d (Jul '26) | 134% OTM
$94/mo

Normal (+5-15% above SS)

$410C @ $0.01 | 8d (Jul '26) | 160% OTM
$94/mo

Aggressive (+15%+ above SS)

$460C @ $0.01 | 8d (Jul '26) | 191% OTM
$94/mo
Best monthly: $94 | Annual ROI: 0.4% | Months to recover: N/A | Fill rate: 70%

FARTHEST ROLL (MAX RUNWAY)

LC $115C / SP $370P / HP $310P (ROLL)
Best E[P&L] per $ at risk on the farthest searched chain (Dec '28, 891d). Costs DR $173,875, ML change +107%. Recovery at $307.5 (1.9x stock). Buys 12.1 months of extra runway vs the current expiry. P(recovery by expiry) 29%.
CostDR $173,875
ML Change+$248,875
Recovery$563.00 -> $307.55
Delta22.9
E[P&L]$156,426
P(Recovery)29%
SP Assign Cushion0.79 (ELEVATED)
Margin+$93,614

Close:

Sell 25x 500C @ $11.90Buy 25x 330P @ $187.45Sell 25x 300P @ $155.00

Open:

Buy 25x Dec 15 '28 $115C @ $95.30Sell 25x Dec 15 '28 $370P @ $227.30Buy 25x Dec 15 '28 $310P @ $181.00
P&L Scenarios (Current BE: $563.00 | Repair BE: $307.55)
StockChangeP(≥)P&LDo NothingDiff
$78.97-50%72%$-481,371$-232,496$-248,875
$126.35-20%57%$-452,996$-232,496$-220,500
$157.940%50%$-374,021$-232,496$-141,525
$197.4325%43%$-275,296$-232,496$-42,800
$236.9150%37%$-176,596$-232,496$+55,900
$300.0090%30%$-18,871$-232,496$+213,625
$307.55 ◀95%29%$4$-213,621$+213,625
$308.7795%29%$3,054$-210,571$+213,625
$310.0096%29%$6,129$-207,496$+213,625
$315.88100%28%$35,529$-192,796$+228,325
$330.00109%27%$106,129$-157,496$+263,625
$370.00134%24%$306,129$-157,496$+463,625
$394.85150%23%$368,254$-157,496$+525,750
$473.82200%18%$565,679$-157,496$+723,175
$500.00217%17%$631,129$-157,496$+788,625
$631.76300%13%$960,529$171,904$+788,625
$789.70400%9%$1,355,379$566,754$+788,625
CC payback: 9.4 months of covered calls repays this debit (writing $167.5C Jul 31 22d @ $7.75 bid ≈ $18,494/mo at 70% fill). Caution: that write strike is below this candidate's safe strike ($309); assignment there caps the recovery.
CC Income Overlay

Conservative (at SS)

$320C @ $0.01 | 8d (Jul '26) | 103% OTM
$94/mo

Normal (+5-15% above SS)

No strikes available

Aggressive (+15%+ above SS)

$370C @ $0.01 | 8d (Jul '26) | 134% OTM
$94/mo
Best monthly: $94 | Annual ROI: 0.2% | Months to recover: N/A | Fill rate: 70%

BEST ROLL (for ROI)

Same trade as FARTHEST ROLL (MAX RUNWAY) above: LC $115C / SP $370P / HP $310P

REBUILD (FRESH ATM)

LC $150C / SP $140P / HP $110P (ROLL)
Closes the whole structure and re-opens near the money on the farthest chain (Dec '28) — a brand-new fortress instead of a repair anchored to the old strikes. Costs DR $220,500, ML change +95%. Recovery at $301.2 (1.91x stock, the lowest philosophy of any lens). P(recovery by expiry) 30%.
CostDR $220,500
ML Change+$220,500
Recovery$563.00 -> $301.20
Delta20.7
E[P&L]$139,442
P(Recovery)30%
SP Assign Cushion4.05 (LOW)
Margin+$74,271

Close:

Sell 25x 500C @ $11.90Buy 25x 330P @ $187.45Sell 25x 300P @ $155.00

Open:

Buy 25x Dec 15 '28 $150C @ $81.50Sell 25x Dec 15 '28 $140P @ $50.15Buy 25x Dec 15 '28 $110P @ $36.30
P&L Scenarios (Current BE: $563.00 | Repair BE: $301.20)
StockChangeP(≥)P&LDo NothingDiff
$78.97-50%72%$-452,996$-232,496$-220,500
$126.35-20%57%$-412,121$-232,496$-179,625
$140.00-11%54%$-377,996$-232,496$-145,500
$157.940%50%$-358,146$-232,496$-125,650
$197.4325%43%$-259,421$-232,496$-26,925
$236.9150%37%$-160,721$-232,496$+71,775
$300.0090%30%$-2,996$-232,496$+229,500
$301.20 ◀91%30%$4$-229,496$+229,500
$315.88100%28%$36,704$-192,796$+229,500
$330.00109%27%$72,004$-157,496$+229,500
$394.85150%23%$234,129$-157,496$+391,625
$473.82200%18%$431,554$-157,496$+589,050
$500.00217%17%$497,004$-157,496$+654,500
$631.76300%13%$826,404$171,904$+654,500
$789.70400%9%$1,221,254$566,754$+654,500
CC payback: 11.9 months of covered calls repays this debit (writing $167.5C Jul 31 22d @ $7.75 bid ≈ $18,494/mo at 70% fill). Caution: that write strike is below this candidate's safe strike ($301); assignment there caps the recovery.
CC Income Overlay

Conservative (at SS)

$305C @ $0.02 | 15d (Jul '26) | 93% OTM
$100/mo

Normal (+5-15% above SS)

$320C @ $0.01 | 8d (Jul '26) | 103% OTM
$94/mo

Aggressive (+15%+ above SS)

$370C @ $0.01 | 8d (Jul '26) | 134% OTM
$94/mo
Best monthly: $100 | Annual ROI: 0.3% | Months to recover: N/A | Fill rate: 70%

AI TOP PICK (= Best Roll (for ROI))

Same trade as FARTHEST ROLL (MAX RUNWAY) above: LC $115C / SP $370P / HP $310P

AI ALTERNATIVE (CREDIT)

LC $480C / SP $380P / HP $320P (ROLL)
Best E[P&L]/capital among meaningful credits. It collects CR $3,500 (2% of ML), ML increase +$71,500 (31%), recovery at $542 (3.4x stock). shown because AI Top Pick costs DR $173,875 — this is the best E[P&L]-per-$ candidate with a meaningful credit (>= 1% of ML), for traders who prefer not to add capital to the repair.
CostCR $3,500
ML Change+$71,500
Recovery$563.00 -> $541.60
Delta10.4
E[P&L]$-91,052
P(Recovery)12%
SP Assign Cushion0.74 (ELEVATED)
Margin+$29,534

Close:

Sell 25x 500C @ $11.90Buy 25x 330P @ $187.45Sell 25x 300P @ $155.00

Open:

Buy 25x Jun 16 '28 $480C @ $25.35Sell 25x Jun 16 '28 $380P @ $231.00Buy 25x Jun 16 '28 $320P @ $183.70
P&L Scenarios (Current BE: $563.00 | Repair BE: $541.60)
StockChangeP(≥)P&LDo NothingDiff
$78.97-50%74%$-303,996$-232,496$-71,500
$157.940%50%$-303,996$-232,496$-71,500
$315.88100%26%$-303,996$-192,796$-111,200
$320.00103%25%$-303,996$-182,496$-121,500
$330.00109%25%$-278,996$-157,496$-121,500
$380.00141%21%$-153,996$-157,496$+3,500
$500.00217%14%$-103,996$-157,496$+53,500
$541.60 ◀243%12%$4$-53,496$+53,500
$631.76300%10%$225,404$171,904$+53,500
$789.70400%7%$620,254$566,754$+53,500

BUDGET FRONTIER — the menu of efficient trade-offs

Every row is undominated: no other candidate is at least as good on cost, max-loss change, break-even AND expected P&L per dollar at once. Whatever budget or priority you apply, the answer comes from this list. The grey notes price each step up the ladder. Sorted cheapest first.
StructureExpiryCostML ChgRecoveryP(Rec)E[P&L]E/CapTIMS
LC $500 / SP $360 / HP $300Dec'27CR $39,750$35,250$547 (3.46x)9%$-145,229-0.542-
LC $480 / SP $380 / HP $320Jun'28CR $3,500$71,500$542 (3.43x)12%$-91,052-0.299$29,534
↑ +$36,250 cash buys -$6 break-even and +$54,177 E[P&L]
LC $380 / SP $380 / HP $320Jun'28DR $18,000$93,000$450 (2.85x)16%$-68,640-0.211-
↑ +$21,500 cash buys -$91 break-even and +$22,412 E[P&L]
LC $390 / SP $370 / HP $310Dec'28DR $40,875$115,875$469 (2.97x)19%$34,1760.098-
↑ +$22,875 cash buys +$19 break-even and +$102,816 E[P&L]
LC $200 / SP $290 / HP $230Dec'27DR $73,875$148,875$293 (1.85x)25%$-87,271-0.229-
↑ +$33,000 cash buys -$177 break-even and -$121,447 E[P&L]
LC $210 / SP $370 / HP $310Dec'28DR $101,000$176,000$342 (2.16x)26%$111,6360.273-
↑ +$27,125 cash buys +$49 break-even and +$198,907 E[P&L]
LC $140 / SP $250 / HP $190Jan'28DR $127,500$202,500$254 (1.61x)31%$-40,263-0.093-
↑ +$26,500 cash buys -$88 break-even and -$151,899 E[P&L]
LC $150 / SP $300 / HP $240Dec'28DR $150,250$225,250$287 (1.81x)31%$141,0860.308-
↑ +$22,750 cash buys +$33 break-even and +$181,349 E[P&L]
LC $115 / SP $360 / HP $300Dec'28DR $177,375$252,375$304 (1.93x)30%$154,1770.318-
↑ +$27,125 cash buys +$18 break-even and +$13,091 E[P&L]
LC $90 / SP $230 / HP $170Dec'27DR $197,000$272,000$232 (1.47x)34%$-44,378-0.088-
↑ +$19,625 cash buys -$73 break-even and -$198,555 E[P&L]
LC $115 / SP $195 / HP $155Dec'28DR $233,500$258,500$271 (1.72x)33%$153,7320.313-
↑ +$36,500 cash buys +$40 break-even and +$198,110 E[P&L]
LC $115 / SP $145 / HP $125Dec'28DR $270,125$245,125$286 (1.81x)31%$147,9680.310-
↑ +$36,625 cash buys +$15 break-even and -$5,764 E[P&L]
LC $10 / SP $360 / HP $300Dec'27DR $301,375$376,375$254 (1.61x)30%$460.000-
↑ +$31,250 cash buys -$33 break-even and -$147,922 E[P&L]
LC $45 / SP $135 / HP $130Dec'27DR $360,875$298,375$252 (1.60x)31%$-31,155-0.059-
↑ +$59,500 cash buys -$1 break-even and -$31,201 E[P&L]

NOTES: