RESTRUCTURE ANALYSIS: COIN (Dec 17, 2027, 527d remaining) v6-BETA

Stock: $157.79 | Contracts: 25 | Current: 500C/330P/300P
Put Spread: 100% of max loss ($232,496) | LC Delta: 0.237
Generated: 2026-07-08 23:33:23

CURRENT POSITION

LegStrikeExpiryDTEQty MidIntrinsicTime ValDeltaUnrealized
LC$500.0CDec'27527d+25$14.225$0.000$14.2250.237$-163,801
SP$330.0PDec'27527d-25$184.225$172.210$12.0150.672$-210,225
HP$300.0PDec'27527d+25$157.875$142.210$15.6650.622$186,218

RESTRUCTURE (LC_SP)

Put SpreadEXHAUSTED (100% of max loss)
LC VitalityMODERATE (delta 0.237)
SP DepthDEEP ITM (109%)
TimeSTRONG (527d remaining)
Safe Strike$563.00 (3.6x stock)
Repairs8 of 8 lens picks LOWER the safe strike (improve recovery)
AI vs HoldAI pick recovers to $0 at $283 (1.8x) · starts beating do-nothing above $234 (1.5x)

Current Max Loss: $232,496 | Current Recovery: $563.00 | 71,077 candidates evaluated

BEST FOR CREDIT

LC $480C / SP $360P / HP $300P (LC_SP)
Maximizes cash returned. You collect CR $39,375 (17% of current ML back). No new capital into the trade.
CostCR $39,375
ML Change+$35,625
Recovery$563.00 -> $527.25
Delta8.6
E[P&L]$-140,783
P(Recovery)9%
SP Assign Cushion0.83 (ELEVATED)
Margin+$9,598

Close:

Sell 25x 500C @ $11.90Buy 25x 330P @ $187.45

Open:

Buy 25x Dec 17 '27 $480C @ $16.70Sell 25x Dec 17 '27 $360P @ $208.00
P&L Scenarios (Current BE: $563.00 | Repair BE: $527.25)
StockChangeP(≥)P&LDo NothingDiff
$78.89-50%77%$-268,121$-232,496$-35,625
$157.790%50%$-268,121$-232,496$-35,625
$315.58100%23%$-229,171$-193,546$-35,625
$330.00109%21%$-193,121$-157,496$-35,625
$360.00128%18%$-118,121$-157,496$+39,375
$500.00217%10%$-68,121$-157,496$+89,375
$527.25 ◀234%9%$4$-89,371$+89,375
$631.16300%7%$259,779$170,404$+89,375
$788.95400%4%$654,254$564,879$+89,375

BEST FOR MARGIN

LC $480C / SP $350P / HP $300P (LC_SP)
Lowest ML increase among all credit candidates. ML change +$33,125 (14% increase vs current $232,496). Still collects CR $16,875.
CostCR $16,875
ML Change+$33,125
Recovery$563.00 -> $536.25
Delta8.3
E[P&L]$-143,002
P(Recovery)9%
SP Assign Cushion0.88 (ELEVATED)
Margin+$7,037

Close:

Sell 25x 500C @ $11.90Buy 25x 330P @ $187.45

Open:

Buy 25x Dec 17 '27 $480C @ $16.70Sell 25x Dec 17 '27 $350P @ $199.00
P&L Scenarios (Current BE: $563.00 | Repair BE: $536.25)
StockChangeP(≥)P&LDo NothingDiff
$78.89-50%77%$-265,621$-232,496$-33,125
$157.790%50%$-265,621$-232,496$-33,125
$315.58100%23%$-226,671$-193,546$-33,125
$330.00109%21%$-190,621$-157,496$-33,125
$350.00122%19%$-140,621$-157,496$+16,875
$500.00217%10%$-90,621$-157,496$+66,875
$536.25 ◀240%9%$4$-66,871$+66,875
$631.16300%7%$237,279$170,404$+66,875
$788.95400%4%$631,754$564,879$+66,875

BEST FOR RECOVERY

LC $300C / SP $360P / HP $300P (LC_SP)
Lowest recovery among credit candidates with ML increase under 50% of current ML. Recovery at $362.8 (2.3x stock), collects CR $375, ML change +$74,625.
CostCR $375
ML Change+$74,625
Recovery$563.00 -> $362.85
Delta13.1
E[P&L]$-104,467
P(Recovery)18%
SP Assign Cushion0.83 (ELEVATED)
Margin+$37,321

Close:

Sell 25x 500C @ $11.90Buy 25x 330P @ $187.45

Open:

Buy 25x Dec 17 '27 $300C @ $32.30Sell 25x Dec 17 '27 $360P @ $208.00
P&L Scenarios (Current BE: $563.00 | Repair BE: $362.85)
StockChangeP(≥)P&LDo NothingDiff
$78.89-50%77%$-307,121$-232,496$-74,625
$157.790%50%$-307,121$-232,496$-74,625
$315.58100%23%$-229,221$-193,546$-35,675
$330.00109%21%$-157,121$-157,496$+375
$360.00128%18%$-7,121$-157,496$+150,375
$362.85 ◀130%18%$4$-157,496$+157,500
$394.47150%16%$79,054$-157,496$+236,550
$473.37200%12%$276,304$-157,496$+433,800
$500.00217%10%$342,879$-157,496$+500,375
$631.16300%7%$670,779$170,404$+500,375
$788.95400%4%$1,065,254$564,879$+500,375
CC Income Overlay

Conservative (at SS)

$370C @ $0.01 | 8d (Jul '26) | 134% OTM
$94/mo

Normal (+5-15% above SS)

$410C @ $0.01 | 8d (Jul '26) | 160% OTM
$94/mo

Aggressive (+15%+ above SS)

$460C @ $0.01 | 8d (Jul '26) | 192% OTM
$94/mo
Best monthly: $94 | Annual ROI: 0.4% | Months to recover: N/A | Fill rate: 70%

FARTHEST ROLL (MAX RUNWAY)

LC $145C / SP $300P / HP $240P (ROLL)
Best E[P&L] per $ at risk on the farthest searched chain (Dec '28, 891d). Costs DR $146,250, ML change +95%. Recovery at $283.2 (1.8x stock). Buys 12.1 months of extra runway vs the current expiry. P(recovery by expiry) 32%.
CostDR $146,250
ML Change+$221,250
Recovery$563.00 -> $283.25
Delta21.8
E[P&L]$148,273
P(Recovery)32%
SP Assign Cushion1.20 (MODERATE)
Margin+$91,356

Close:

Sell 25x 500C @ $11.90Buy 25x 330P @ $187.45Sell 25x 300P @ $155.00

Open:

Buy 25x Dec 15 '28 $145C @ $82.40Sell 25x Dec 15 '28 $300P @ $167.00Buy 25x Dec 15 '28 $240P @ $122.55
P&L Scenarios (Current BE: $563.00 | Repair BE: $283.25)
StockChangeP(≥)P&LDo NothingDiff
$78.89-50%72%$-453,746$-232,496$-221,250
$157.790%50%$-421,771$-232,496$-189,275
$197.2425%43%$-323,146$-232,496$-90,650
$236.6950%37%$-224,521$-232,496$+7,975
$240.0052%37%$-216,246$-232,496$+16,250
$283.25 ◀80%32%$4$-232,496$+232,500
$300.0090%30%$83,754$-232,496$+316,250
$315.58100%28%$122,704$-193,546$+316,250
$330.00109%27%$158,754$-157,496$+316,250
$394.47150%23%$319,929$-157,496$+477,425
$473.37200%18%$517,179$-157,496$+674,675
$500.00217%17%$583,754$-157,496$+741,250
$631.16300%13%$911,654$170,404$+741,250
$788.95400%9%$1,306,129$564,879$+741,250
CC payback: 7.5 months of covered calls repays this debit (writing $167.5C Jul 31 22d @ $8.15 bid ≈ $19,449/mo at 70% fill). Caution: that write strike is below this candidate's safe strike ($283); assignment there caps the recovery.
CC Income Overlay

Conservative (at SS)

$285C @ $0.15 | 36d (Aug '26) | 81% OTM
$312/mo

Normal (+5-15% above SS)

$300C @ $0.15 | 36d (Aug '26) | 90% OTM
$312/mo

Aggressive (+15%+ above SS)

$370C @ $0.01 | 8d (Jul '26) | 134% OTM
$94/mo
Best monthly: $312 | Annual ROI: 0.8% | Months to recover: N/A | Fill rate: 70%

BEST ROLL (for ROI)

Same trade as FARTHEST ROLL (MAX RUNWAY) above: LC $145C / SP $300P / HP $240P

REBUILD (FRESH ATM)

LC $145C / SP $135P / HP $110P (ROLL)
Closes the whole structure and re-opens near the money on the farthest chain (Dec '28) — a brand-new fortress instead of a repair anchored to the old strikes. Costs DR $228,375, ML change +93%. Recovery at $299.3 (1.90x stock, the lowest philosophy of any lens). P(recovery by expiry) 30%.
CostDR $228,375
ML Change+$215,875
Recovery$563.00 -> $299.35
Delta20.7
E[P&L]$140,530
P(Recovery)30%
SP Assign Cushion4.01 (LOW)
Margin+$74,554

Close:

Sell 25x 500C @ $11.90Buy 25x 330P @ $187.45Sell 25x 300P @ $155.00

Open:

Buy 25x Dec 15 '28 $145C @ $82.40Sell 25x Dec 15 '28 $135P @ $47.90Buy 25x Dec 15 '28 $110P @ $36.30
P&L Scenarios (Current BE: $563.00 | Repair BE: $299.35)
StockChangeP(≥)P&LDo NothingDiff
$78.89-50%72%$-448,371$-232,496$-215,875
$126.23-20%57%$-407,796$-232,496$-175,300
$135.00-14%55%$-385,871$-232,496$-153,375
$157.790%50%$-353,896$-232,496$-121,400
$197.2425%43%$-255,271$-232,496$-22,775
$236.6950%37%$-156,646$-232,496$+75,850
$299.35 ◀90%30%$4$-232,496$+232,500
$300.0090%30%$1,629$-232,496$+234,125
$315.58100%28%$40,579$-193,546$+234,125
$330.00109%27%$76,629$-157,496$+234,125
$394.47150%23%$237,804$-157,496$+395,300
$473.37200%18%$435,054$-157,496$+592,550
$500.00217%17%$501,629$-157,496$+659,125
$631.16300%13%$829,529$170,404$+659,125
$788.95400%9%$1,224,004$564,879$+659,125
CC payback: 11.7 months of covered calls repays this debit (writing $167.5C Jul 31 22d @ $8.15 bid ≈ $19,449/mo at 70% fill). Caution: that write strike is below this candidate's safe strike ($299); assignment there caps the recovery.
CC Income Overlay

Conservative (at SS)

$300C @ $0.15 | 36d (Aug '26) | 90% OTM
$312/mo

Normal (+5-15% above SS)

$320C @ $0.01 | 8d (Jul '26) | 103% OTM
$94/mo

Aggressive (+15%+ above SS)

$370C @ $0.01 | 8d (Jul '26) | 134% OTM
$94/mo
Best monthly: $312 | Annual ROI: 0.8% | Months to recover: N/A | Fill rate: 70%

AI TOP PICK (= Best Roll (for ROI))

Same trade as FARTHEST ROLL (MAX RUNWAY) above: LC $145C / SP $300P / HP $240P

AI ALTERNATIVE (CREDIT)

LC $480C / SP $380P / HP $320P (ROLL)
Best E[P&L]/capital among meaningful credits. It collects CR $3,500 (2% of ML), ML increase +$71,500 (31%), recovery at $542 (3.4x stock). shown because AI Top Pick costs DR $146,250 — this is the best E[P&L]-per-$ candidate with a meaningful credit (>= 1% of ML), for traders who prefer not to add capital to the repair.
CostCR $3,500
ML Change+$71,500
Recovery$563.00 -> $541.60
Delta10.4
E[P&L]$-92,088
P(Recovery)12%
SP Assign Cushion0.74 (ELEVATED)
Margin+$29,584

Close:

Sell 25x 500C @ $11.90Buy 25x 330P @ $187.45Sell 25x 300P @ $155.00

Open:

Buy 25x Jun 16 '28 $480C @ $25.35Sell 25x Jun 16 '28 $380P @ $231.00Buy 25x Jun 16 '28 $320P @ $183.70
P&L Scenarios (Current BE: $563.00 | Repair BE: $541.60)
StockChangeP(≥)P&LDo NothingDiff
$78.89-50%74%$-303,996$-232,496$-71,500
$157.790%50%$-303,996$-232,496$-71,500
$315.58100%26%$-303,996$-193,546$-110,450
$320.00103%25%$-303,996$-182,496$-121,500
$330.00109%25%$-278,996$-157,496$-121,500
$380.00141%21%$-153,996$-157,496$+3,500
$500.00217%14%$-103,996$-157,496$+53,500
$541.60 ◀243%12%$4$-53,496$+53,500
$631.16300%10%$223,904$170,404$+53,500
$788.95400%7%$618,379$564,879$+53,500

BUDGET FRONTIER — the menu of efficient trade-offs

Every row is undominated: no other candidate is at least as good on cost, max-loss change, break-even AND expected P&L per dollar at once. Whatever budget or priority you apply, the answer comes from this list. The grey notes price each step up the ladder. Sorted cheapest first.
StructureExpiryCostML ChgRecoveryP(Rec)E[P&L]E/CapTIMS
LC $500 / SP $360 / HP $300Dec'27CR $39,750$35,250$547 (3.47x)9%$-145,846-0.545-
LC $310 / SP $360 / HP $300Dec'27CR $7,250$67,750$370 (2.35x)18%$-103,508-0.345-
↑ +$32,500 cash buys -$177 break-even and +$42,338 E[P&L]
LC $450 / SP $330 / HP $300Dec'27DR $15,250$15,250$519 (3.29x)10%$-126,223-0.509-
↑ +$22,500 cash buys +$149 break-even and -$22,715 E[P&L]
LC $240 / SP $320 / HP $260Dec'27DR $37,625$112,625$319 (2.02x)22%$-93,925-0.272-
↑ +$22,375 cash buys -$200 break-even and +$32,298 E[P&L]
LC $200 / SP $300 / HP $240Dec'27DR $68,750$143,750$295 (1.87x)25%$-85,237-0.227-
↑ +$31,125 cash buys -$24 break-even and +$8,688 E[P&L]
LC $160 / SP $270 / HP $210Dec'27DR $104,625$179,625$267 (1.69x)28%$-69,958-0.170-
↑ +$35,875 cash buys -$28 break-even and +$15,279 E[P&L]
LC $430 / SP $150 / HP $145Jun'28DR $130,000$67,500$545 (3.45x)12%$-95,686-0.319-
↑ +$25,375 cash buys +$278 break-even and -$25,728 E[P&L]
LC $400 / SP $195 / HP $190Dec'28DR $155,000$92,500$525 (3.33x)16%$14,6590.045-
↑ +$25,000 cash buys -$20 break-even and +$110,345 E[P&L]
LC $100 / SP $240 / HP $180Dec'27DR $178,500$253,500$237 (1.50x)33%$-47,748-0.098-
↑ +$23,500 cash buys -$288 break-even and -$62,407 E[P&L]
LC $170 / SP $85 / HP $80Dec'27DR $200,000$137,500$313 (1.98x)23%$-79,196-0.214-
↑ +$21,500 cash buys +$76 break-even and -$31,448 E[P&L]
LC $115 / SP $155 / HP $110Dec'28DR $231,500$269,000$271 (1.71x)33%$156,0990.311-
↑ +$31,500 cash buys -$42 break-even and +$235,295 E[P&L]
LC $35 / SP $220 / HP $160Dec'27DR $292,250$367,250$217 (1.38x)36%$-21,633-0.036-
↑ +$60,750 cash buys -$53 break-even and -$177,732 E[P&L]
LC $25 / SP $330 / HP $300Dec'27DR $320,250$320,250$246 (1.56x)31%$3,1410.006-
↑ +$28,000 cash buys +$29 break-even and +$24,774 E[P&L]
LC $40 / SP $135 / HP $130Dec'27DR $370,875$308,375$251 (1.59x)31%$-30,624-0.057-
↑ +$50,625 cash buys +$5 break-even and -$33,765 E[P&L]

NOTES: