RESTRUCTURE ANALYSIS: COIN (Dec 17, 2027, 527d remaining) v6-BETA

Stock: $158.63 | Contracts: 25 | Current: 500C/330P/300P
Put Spread: 100% of max loss ($232,496) | LC Delta: 0.238
Generated: 2026-07-08 23:36:25

CURRENT POSITION

LegStrikeExpiryDTEQty MidIntrinsicTime ValDeltaUnrealized
LC$500.0CDec'27527d+25$14.225$0.000$14.2250.238$-163,801
SP$330.0PDec'27527d-25$184.225$171.370$12.8550.669$-210,225
HP$300.0PDec'27527d+25$157.875$141.370$16.5050.622$186,218

RESTRUCTURE (LC_SP)

Put SpreadEXHAUSTED (100% of max loss)
LC VitalityMODERATE (delta 0.238)
SP DepthDEEP ITM (108%)
TimeSTRONG (527d remaining)
Safe Strike$563.00 (3.5x stock)
Repairs8 of 8 lens picks LOWER the safe strike (improve recovery)
AI vs HoldAI pick recovers to $0 at $275 (1.7x) · starts beating do-nothing above $217 (1.4x)

Current Max Loss: $232,496 | Current Recovery: $563.00 | 71,077 candidates evaluated

BEST FOR CREDIT

LC $480C / SP $360P / HP $300P (LC_SP)
Maximizes cash returned. You collect CR $39,375 (17% of current ML back). No new capital into the trade.
CostCR $39,375
ML Change+$35,625
Recovery$563.00 -> $527.25
Delta8.6
E[P&L]$-139,364
P(Recovery)10%
SP Assign Cushion0.87 (ELEVATED)
Margin+$9,629

Close:

Sell 25x 500C @ $11.90Buy 25x 330P @ $187.45

Open:

Buy 25x Dec 17 '27 $480C @ $16.70Sell 25x Dec 17 '27 $360P @ $208.00
P&L Scenarios (Current BE: $563.00 | Repair BE: $527.25)
StockChangeP(≥)P&LDo NothingDiff
$79.31-50%77%$-268,121$-232,496$-35,625
$158.630%50%$-268,121$-232,496$-35,625
$317.26100%23%$-224,971$-189,346$-35,625
$330.00108%21%$-193,121$-157,496$-35,625
$360.00127%19%$-118,121$-157,496$+39,375
$500.00215%11%$-68,121$-157,496$+89,375
$527.25 ◀232%10%$4$-89,371$+89,375
$634.52300%7%$268,179$178,804$+89,375
$793.15400%4%$664,754$575,379$+89,375

BEST FOR MARGIN

LC $480C / SP $350P / HP $300P (LC_SP)
Lowest ML increase among all credit candidates. ML change +$33,125 (14% increase vs current $232,496). Still collects CR $16,875.
CostCR $16,875
ML Change+$33,125
Recovery$563.00 -> $536.25
Delta8.3
E[P&L]$-141,625
P(Recovery)9%
SP Assign Cushion0.92 (ELEVATED)
Margin+$7,051

Close:

Sell 25x 500C @ $11.90Buy 25x 330P @ $187.45

Open:

Buy 25x Dec 17 '27 $480C @ $16.70Sell 25x Dec 17 '27 $350P @ $199.00
P&L Scenarios (Current BE: $563.00 | Repair BE: $536.25)
StockChangeP(≥)P&LDo NothingDiff
$79.31-50%77%$-265,621$-232,496$-33,125
$158.630%50%$-265,621$-232,496$-33,125
$317.26100%23%$-222,471$-189,346$-33,125
$330.00108%21%$-190,621$-157,496$-33,125
$350.00121%19%$-140,621$-157,496$+16,875
$500.00215%11%$-90,621$-157,496$+66,875
$536.25 ◀238%9%$4$-66,871$+66,875
$634.52300%7%$245,679$178,804$+66,875
$793.15400%4%$642,254$575,379$+66,875

BEST FOR RECOVERY

LC $300C / SP $360P / HP $300P (LC_SP)
Lowest recovery among credit candidates with ML increase under 50% of current ML. Recovery at $362.8 (2.3x stock), collects CR $375, ML change +$74,625.
CostCR $375
ML Change+$74,625
Recovery$563.00 -> $362.85
Delta13.1
E[P&L]$-102,435
P(Recovery)18%
SP Assign Cushion0.87 (ELEVATED)
Margin+$37,622

Close:

Sell 25x 500C @ $11.90Buy 25x 330P @ $187.45

Open:

Buy 25x Dec 17 '27 $300C @ $32.30Sell 25x Dec 17 '27 $360P @ $208.00
P&L Scenarios (Current BE: $563.00 | Repair BE: $362.85)
StockChangeP(≥)P&LDo NothingDiff
$79.31-50%77%$-307,121$-232,496$-74,625
$158.630%50%$-307,121$-232,496$-74,625
$317.26100%23%$-220,821$-189,346$-31,475
$330.00108%21%$-157,121$-157,496$+375
$360.00127%19%$-7,121$-157,496$+150,375
$362.85 ◀129%18%$4$-157,496$+157,500
$396.57150%16%$84,304$-157,496$+241,800
$475.89200%12%$282,604$-157,496$+440,100
$500.00215%11%$342,879$-157,496$+500,375
$634.52300%7%$679,179$178,804$+500,375
$793.15400%4%$1,075,754$575,379$+500,375
CC Income Overlay

Conservative (at SS)

$370C @ $0.01 | 8d (Jul '26) | 133% OTM
$94/mo

Normal (+5-15% above SS)

$390C @ $0.01 | 8d (Jul '26) | 146% OTM
$94/mo

Aggressive (+15%+ above SS)

$460C @ $0.01 | 8d (Jul '26) | 190% OTM
$94/mo
Best monthly: $94 | Annual ROI: 0.4% | Months to recover: N/A | Fill rate: 70%

FARTHEST ROLL (MAX RUNWAY)

LC $115C / SP $300P / HP $240P (ROLL)
Best E[P&L] per $ at risk on the farthest searched chain (Dec '28, 891d). Costs DR $179,250, ML change +109%. Recovery at $274.8 (1.7x stock). Buys 12.1 months of extra runway vs the current expiry. P(recovery by expiry) 32%.
CostDR $179,250
ML Change+$254,250
Recovery$563.00 -> $274.85
Delta23.2
E[P&L]$155,402
P(Recovery)32%
SP Assign Cushion1.23 (MODERATE)
Margin+$93,159

Close:

Sell 25x 500C @ $11.90Buy 25x 330P @ $187.45Sell 25x 300P @ $155.00

Open:

Buy 25x Dec 15 '28 $115C @ $95.30Sell 25x Dec 15 '28 $300P @ $166.95Buy 25x Dec 15 '28 $240P @ $122.80
P&L Scenarios (Current BE: $563.00 | Repair BE: $274.85)
StockChangeP(≥)P&LDo NothingDiff
$79.31-50%72%$-486,746$-232,496$-254,250
$126.90-20%57%$-456,996$-232,496$-224,500
$158.630%50%$-377,671$-232,496$-145,175
$198.2925%43%$-278,521$-232,496$-46,025
$237.9450%37%$-179,396$-232,496$+53,100
$240.0051%37%$-174,246$-232,496$+58,250
$274.85 ◀73%33%$4$-232,496$+232,500
$300.0089%30%$125,754$-232,496$+358,250
$317.26100%28%$168,904$-189,346$+358,250
$330.00108%27%$200,754$-157,496$+358,250
$396.57150%22%$367,179$-157,496$+524,675
$475.89200%18%$565,479$-157,496$+722,975
$500.00215%17%$625,754$-157,496$+783,250
$634.52300%13%$962,054$178,804$+783,250
$793.15400%9%$1,358,629$575,379$+783,250
CC payback: 8.8 months of covered calls repays this debit (writing $167.5C Jul 31 22d @ $8.50 bid ≈ $20,284/mo at 70% fill). Caution: that write strike is below this candidate's safe strike ($275); assignment there caps the recovery.
CC Income Overlay

Conservative (at SS)

$285C @ $0.15 | 36d (Aug '26) | 80% OTM
$312/mo

Normal (+5-15% above SS)

$300C @ $0.15 | 36d (Aug '26) | 89% OTM
$312/mo

Aggressive (+15%+ above SS)

$320C @ $0.01 | 8d (Jul '26) | 102% OTM
$94/mo
Best monthly: $312 | Annual ROI: 0.8% | Months to recover: N/A | Fill rate: 70%

BEST ROLL (for ROI)

Same trade as FARTHEST ROLL (MAX RUNWAY) above: LC $115C / SP $300P / HP $240P

REBUILD (FRESH ATM)

LC $150C / SP $135P / HP $110P (ROLL)
Closes the whole structure and re-opens near the money on the farthest chain (Dec '28) — a brand-new fortress instead of a repair anchored to the old strikes. Costs DR $226,250, ML change +92%. Recovery at $303.5 (1.91x stock, the lowest philosophy of any lens). P(recovery by expiry) 30%.
CostDR $226,250
ML Change+$213,750
Recovery$563.00 -> $303.50
Delta20.5
E[P&L]$133,785
P(Recovery)30%
SP Assign Cushion4.01 (LOW)
Margin+$73,900

Close:

Sell 25x 500C @ $11.90Buy 25x 330P @ $187.45Sell 25x 300P @ $155.00

Open:

Buy 25x Dec 15 '28 $150C @ $81.50Sell 25x Dec 15 '28 $135P @ $47.85Buy 25x Dec 15 '28 $110P @ $36.30
P&L Scenarios (Current BE: $563.00 | Repair BE: $303.50)
StockChangeP(≥)P&LDo NothingDiff
$79.31-50%72%$-446,246$-232,496$-213,750
$126.90-20%57%$-403,996$-232,496$-171,500
$135.00-15%55%$-383,746$-232,496$-151,250
$158.630%50%$-362,171$-232,496$-129,675
$198.2925%43%$-263,021$-232,496$-30,525
$237.9450%37%$-163,896$-232,496$+68,600
$300.0089%30%$-8,746$-232,496$+223,750
$303.50 ◀91%30%$4$-223,746$+223,750
$317.26100%28%$34,404$-189,346$+223,750
$330.00108%27%$66,254$-157,496$+223,750
$396.57150%22%$232,679$-157,496$+390,175
$475.89200%18%$430,979$-157,496$+588,475
$500.00215%17%$491,254$-157,496$+648,750
$634.52300%13%$827,554$178,804$+648,750
$793.15400%9%$1,224,129$575,379$+648,750
CC payback: 11.2 months of covered calls repays this debit (writing $167.5C Jul 31 22d @ $8.50 bid ≈ $20,284/mo at 70% fill). Caution: that write strike is below this candidate's safe strike ($303); assignment there caps the recovery.
CC Income Overlay

Conservative (at SS)

$305C @ $0.02 | 15d (Jul '26) | 92% OTM
$100/mo

Normal (+5-15% above SS)

$320C @ $0.01 | 8d (Jul '26) | 102% OTM
$94/mo

Aggressive (+15%+ above SS)

$370C @ $0.01 | 8d (Jul '26) | 133% OTM
$94/mo
Best monthly: $100 | Annual ROI: 0.3% | Months to recover: N/A | Fill rate: 70%

AI TOP PICK (= Best Roll (for ROI))

Same trade as FARTHEST ROLL (MAX RUNWAY) above: LC $115C / SP $300P / HP $240P

AI ALTERNATIVE (CREDIT)

LC $460C / SP $390P / HP $330P (ROLL)
Best E[P&L]/capital among meaningful credits. It collects CR $2,500 (1% of ML), ML increase +$72,500 (31%), recovery at $522 (3.3x stock). shown because AI Top Pick costs DR $179,250 — this is the best E[P&L]-per-$ candidate with a meaningful credit (>= 1% of ML), for traders who prefer not to add capital to the repair.
CostCR $2,500
ML Change+$72,500
Recovery$563.00 -> $522.00
Delta10.7
E[P&L]$-84,667
P(Recovery)13%
SP Assign Cushion0.73 (ELEVATED)
Margin+$30,887

Close:

Sell 25x 500C @ $11.90Buy 25x 330P @ $187.45Sell 25x 300P @ $155.00

Open:

Buy 25x Jun 16 '28 $460C @ $26.80Sell 25x Jun 16 '28 $390P @ $240.00Buy 25x Jun 16 '28 $330P @ $191.65
P&L Scenarios (Current BE: $563.00 | Repair BE: $522.00)
StockChangeP(≥)P&LDo NothingDiff
$79.31-50%74%$-304,996$-232,496$-72,500
$158.630%50%$-304,996$-232,496$-72,500
$317.26100%26%$-304,996$-189,346$-115,650
$330.00108%25%$-304,996$-157,496$-147,500
$390.00146%20%$-154,996$-157,496$+2,500
$475.89200%15%$-115,271$-157,496$+42,225
$500.00215%14%$-54,996$-157,496$+102,500
$522.00 ◀229%13%$4$-102,496$+102,500
$634.52300%10%$281,304$178,804$+102,500
$793.15400%7%$677,879$575,379$+102,500

BUDGET FRONTIER — the menu of efficient trade-offs

Every row is undominated: no other candidate is at least as good on cost, max-loss change, break-even AND expected P&L per dollar at once. Whatever budget or priority you apply, the answer comes from this list. The grey notes price each step up the ladder. Sorted cheapest first.
StructureExpiryCostML ChgRecoveryP(Rec)E[P&L]E/CapTIMS
LC $500 / SP $360 / HP $300Dec'27CR $39,750$35,250$547 (3.45x)9%$-144,504-0.540-
LC $480 / SP $390 / HP $330Jun'28CR $6,125$68,875$541 (3.41x)13%$-88,783-0.295-
↑ +$33,625 cash buys -$7 break-even and +$55,721 E[P&L]
LC $240 / SP $360 / HP $300Dec'27DR $19,500$94,500$335 (2.11x)21%$-79,953-0.244-
↑ +$25,625 cash buys -$205 break-even and +$8,830 E[P&L]
LC $370 / SP $370 / HP $310Dec'28DR $41,750$116,750$450 (2.83x)19%$39,1590.112-
↑ +$22,250 cash buys +$114 break-even and +$119,112 E[P&L]
LC $200 / SP $290 / HP $230Dec'27DR $73,875$148,875$293 (1.84x)25%$-85,662-0.225-
↑ +$32,125 cash buys -$157 break-even and -$124,821 E[P&L]
LC $160 / SP $270 / HP $210Dec'27DR $104,625$179,625$267 (1.69x)28%$-67,125-0.163-
↑ +$30,750 cash buys -$25 break-even and +$18,537 E[P&L]
LC $130 / SP $250 / HP $190Jan'28DR $133,000$208,000$248 (1.56x)32%$-29,664-0.067-
↑ +$28,375 cash buys -$19 break-even and +$37,461 E[P&L]
LC $300 / SP $195 / HP $190Jun'28DR $160,000$97,500$427 (2.69x)18%$-53,439-0.162-
↑ +$27,000 cash buys +$179 break-even and -$23,775 E[P&L]
LC $115 / SP $290 / HP $230Dec'28DR $185,250$260,250$271 (1.71x)33%$151,1110.307-
↑ +$25,250 cash buys -$156 break-even and +$204,550 E[P&L]
LC $115 / SP $210 / HP $155Dec'28DR $206,250$268,750$260 (1.64x)34%$153,8130.307-
↑ +$21,000 cash buys -$11 break-even and +$2,702 E[P&L]
LC $115 / SP $155 / HP $110Dec'28DR $231,500$269,000$271 (1.71x)33%$154,0440.307-
↑ +$25,250 cash buys +$10 break-even and +$231 E[P&L]
LC $40 / SP $220 / HP $160Dec'27DR $282,250$357,250$218 (1.37x)36%$-19,958-0.034-
↑ +$50,750 cash buys -$53 break-even and -$174,002 E[P&L]
LC $25 / SP $330 / HP $300Dec'27DR $320,250$320,250$246 (1.55x)32%$6,3670.011-
↑ +$38,000 cash buys +$28 break-even and +$26,325 E[P&L]
LC $5 / SP $135 / HP $80Dec'27DR $390,750$453,250$224 (1.41x)35%$-2,452-0.004-
↑ +$70,500 cash buys -$22 break-even and -$8,819 E[P&L]

NOTES: