Quantitative Scoring Engine v5.1 — 1 Ticker
| Ticker | Price | Verdict | Conviction | Score | Base Target | Upside | Fortress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | $495.52 | CAUTIOUS YES | 5/10 | 6.8 | $480 | -3% | Good |
Overall: ALL PASSED
| Gate | Detail |
|---|---|
| ✓ G1 Price Data | $495.52 |
| ✓ G2 Market Cap | Market Cap: $808.00B |
| ✓ G3 Price History | 252 trading days (min: 100) |
| ✓ G4 Options | Options available (20 expirations) |
| ✓ G5 Delisting | No delisting signals |
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 25% | 37.8% MEASURED | 10.0 | 2.500 |
| Gross Margin | 15% | 53.1% [+13.0pp YoY] MEASURED | 7.3 | 1.101 |
| Operating Margin | 15% | 14.4% [+16.1pp YoY] MEASURED | 6.9 | 1.035 |
| Fcf Yield | 10% | 0.9% (growth adj) MEASURED | 4.8 | 0.483 |
| Roic | 15% | ROA=3.6% (ROIC fallback) MEASURED | 5.2 | 0.778 |
| Debt Health | 10% | ND/EBITDA=-1.0x, ICR=54.6x, CR=2.73 MEASURED | 9.6 | 0.963 |
| Earnings Trajectory | 10% | EPS(T)=3.02, EPS(F)=12.96, Fwd=+329% MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.000 |
| 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 7.86 → Adjusted: 7.86 | Composite contribution: 7.86 × 0.40 = 3.144 | 3.144 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Alignment | 25% | above 50-DMA, above 200-DMA, golden cross, ADX=47 (strong trend) MEASURED | 10.0 | 2.500 |
| Mean Reversion | 25% | RSI=74 (overbought), %B=88 (above mid-band) MEASURED | 0.5 | 0.125 |
| Momentum | 20% | MACD above signal, histogram positive, ROC=53.3% (strong up) MEASURED | 8.2 | 1.640 |
| Positioning Sentiment | 20% | SI=2.2% (moderate), P/C=0.91 (neutral) MEASURED | 6.2 | 1.240 |
| Volume Confirmation | 10% | RVOL=0.5x (weak) MEASURED | 3.0 | 0.300 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.80 → Adjusted: 5.80 | Composite contribution: 5.80 × 0.15 = 0.870 | 0.870 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iv Richness | 35% | 69% MEASURED | 9.6 | 3.375 |
| Iv Vs Hv | 10% | IV/HV=0.81x MEASURED | 2.5 | 0.250 |
| Beta Gap Risk | 10% | 2.40 MEASURED | 8.0 | 0.800 |
| Gap History | 10% | Worst day: -17.3%, >5% drops: 12 MEASURED | 2.0 | 0.200 |
| Capital Outlay | 5% | $49,552 per 100 shares MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.450 |
| Entry Timing | 10% | LEAPS available MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.550 |
| Options Liquidity | 20% | near-term OI 51,605 (deep), LEAPS OI 8,490 (~477d, good), spread 2% (tight) MEASURED | 9.0 | 1.800 |
| IV Source: IBKR Live 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 7.43 → Adjusted: 7.43 | Composite contribution: 7.43 × 0.30 = 2.229 | 2.229 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward Pe | 30% | 38.2x MEASURED | 5.0 | 1.500 |
| Peg Ratio | 20% | 1.21 MEASURED | 6.0 | 1.200 |
| Ev Ebitda | 20% | 109.4x MEASURED | 1.5 | 0.300 |
| Analyst Upside | 15% | -4.7% to $472 MEASURED | 2.6 | 0.386 |
| Ps Or Pb | 15% | P/S=21.6x (asset-light) MEASURED | 4.5 | 0.675 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 4.06 → Adjusted: 4.06 | Composite contribution: 4.06 × 0.15 = 0.609 | 0.609 | |||
| Pillar | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals (40%) | 7.86 | 40% | 3.144 |
| Technicals (15%) | 5.80 | 15% | 0.870 |
| Fortress Fit (30%) | 7.43 | 30% | 2.229 |
| Valuation (15%) | 4.06 | 15% | 0.609 |
| Composite Score | 6.85 | ||
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 495.52 | yfinance/IBKR |
| Market Cap | $808.00B | yfinance |
| IV (IBKR) | 69.3% | IBKR live |
| IV (yfinance) | 71.0% | yfinance options |
| HV 30d | 86.0% | computed |
| Beta | 2.399 | yfinance |
| Revenue Growth | 37.8% | yfinance |
| Gross Margin | 53.1% | yfinance |
| Operating Margin | 14.4% | yfinance |
| FCF | $7.17B | yfinance |
| ROE (ref) | 8.1% | yfinance |
| ROA (ref) | 3.6% | yfinance |
| Total Equity | N/A | yfinance |
| D/E Ratio | 6.00 | yfinance |
| Current Ratio | 2.73 | yfinance |
| EPS Trailing | 3.02 | yfinance |
| EPS Forward | 12.96 | yfinance |
| Earnings Growth | 91.2% | yfinance |
| Fwd P/E | 38.24 | yfinance |
| PEG Ratio | 1.21 | yfinance |
| EV/EBITDA | 109.44 | yfinance |
| P/S Ratio | 21.57 | yfinance |
| P/B Ratio (ref) | 12.53 | yfinance |
| Analyst Target | $472.16666 | yfinance |
| Near-term ATM OI | 51,605 | ~45d chain |
| LEAPS ATM OI | 8,490 | ~477d chain |
| Near-term Spread % | 2.5% | ~45d chain |
| Has LEAPS | Yes | yfinance |
| Next Earnings | 2026-08-05 | yfinance |
| Worst 1-Day Drop | -17.3% | price history |
| >5% Drop Days | 12 | price history |
| RSI 14 | 74.1 | computed |
| MACD | 47.01 | computed |
| ADX 14 | 46.90 | computed |
| Relative Volume | 0.45 | computed |
| 52W High | $510.21 | yfinance |
| 52W Low | $108.62 | yfinance |
| 1Y Return | +332.6% | yfinance |
AMD earns a CAUTIOUS YES with 5/10 conviction, driven by exceptional fundamentals (7.9/10) but held back by stretched valuation (4.1/10). The company demonstrates powerful operating leverage with 37.8% revenue growth, gross margins expanding 13pp YoY to 53.1%, and forward EPS growth of 329%. The balance sheet is fortress-like with net cash position and 54.6x interest coverage. However, the forward P/E of 38.2x and EV/EBITDA of 109.4x reflect aggressive expectations, while analyst targets suggest limited upside at current levels. The Fortress Fit score of 7.4/10 supports income generation strategies despite valuation concerns.
AMD exhibits strong trend characteristics with golden cross formation and ADX at 47 signaling robust momentum, supported by MACD remaining above signal line. However, RSI at 74 indicates overbought conditions while Bollinger Band positioning at 88% suggests the stock is extended above its mean. Momentum remains positive with 53.3% rate of change, though volume confirmation is weak at 0.5x relative volume. Key support levels sit at 393 and 225, providing defined risk parameters for structured positions.
| Scenario | Price Target | Timeline | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $350 | 6-9 | Semiconductor cycle downturn or AI demand normalization triggers multiple compression, pulling stock back toward 393 support level with further decline possible. |
| Base | $480 | 12-18 | Steady execution on data center and AI chip roadmap maintains current premium valuation as earnings growth justifies forward multiples. |
| Bull | $650 | 18-24 | AI infrastructure buildout accelerates beyond expectations while market share gains in server CPUs drive sustained 30%+ revenue growth. |
Primary risk lies in valuation vulnerability, with 109.4x EV/EBITDA leaving little room for execution missteps or demand softening. High beta of 2.4 amplifies market volatility exposure, while gap history shows 12 instances of 5%+ single-day drops including a 17.3% worst-case scenario. Competition from NVIDIA in AI chips and Intel's foundry ambitions could pressure market share assumptions embedded in current multiples.
Strong Fortress candidate with 7.4/10 fit score, driven by rich 69% IV levels enabling attractive premium collection and excellent options liquidity with 51,605 near-term OI and tight 2% spreads. The 49,552 capital requirement per 100 shares is reasonable for the income potential, though the 2.4 beta and significant gap history require careful strike selection and position sizing to manage downside exposure.
Disclaimer: This report is auto-generated for informational purposes only. Verdicts and conviction scores are computed by a deterministic quantitative scoring engine (4-pillar model with hard gates). Narrative sections are generated by Anthropic Claude and may contain errors. Fundamental data from Yahoo Finance. IV data from IBKR (where available) or Yahoo Finance options. All data subject to delays. Options trading involves substantial risk. Always do your own due diligence.