Quantitative Scoring Engine v5.1 — 3 Tickers
| Ticker | Price | Verdict | Conviction | Score | Base Target | Upside | Fortress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM | $213.01 | CAUTIOUS YES | 5/10 | 6.4 | $190 | -11% | Good |
| CIFR | $17.88 | CAUTIOUS YES | 5/10 | 6.9 | $22 | +23% | Good |
| MRVL | $164.54 | CAUTIOUS YES | 5/10 | 6.4 | $140 | -15% | Good |
Overall: ALL PASSED
| Gate | Detail |
|---|---|
| ✓ G1 Price Data | $213.01 |
| ✓ G2 Market Cap | Market Cap: $226.22B |
| ✓ G3 Price History | 252 trading days (min: 100) |
| ✓ G4 Options | Options available (18 expirations) |
| ✓ G5 Delisting | No delisting signals |
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 25% | 26.3% MEASURED | 8.6 | 2.138 |
| Gross Margin | 15% | 97.5% [-0.2pp YoY] MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.500 |
| Operating Margin | 15% | 15.4% [-17.7pp YoY] MEASURED | 5.1 | 0.761 |
| Fcf Yield | 10% | 0.4% MEASURED | 2.4 | 0.236 |
| Roic | 15% | ROA=5.9% (ROIC fallback) MEASURED | 6.4 | 0.953 |
| Debt Health | 10% | ND/EBITDA=-2.8x, ICR=N/A, CR=5.43 NO DATA | 7.9 | 0.790 |
| Earnings Trajectory | 10% | EPS(T)=0.75, EPS(F)=2.14, Fwd=+186% MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.900 |
| 6/7 factors have data (86%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 7.28 → Adjusted: 7.28 | Composite contribution: 7.28 × 0.40 = 2.912 | 2.912 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Alignment | 25% | above 50-DMA, above 200-DMA, golden cross, ADX=37 (strong trend) MEASURED | 10.0 | 2.500 |
| Mean Reversion | 25% | RSI=67 (getting hot), %B=85 (above mid-band) MEASURED | 2.0 | 0.500 |
| Momentum | 20% | MACD above signal, histogram positive, ROC=37.4% (strong up) MEASURED | 8.2 | 1.640 |
| Positioning Sentiment | 20% | SI=11.5% (elevated), P/C=1.56 (high fear, contrarian) MEASURED | 8.1 | 1.620 |
| Volume Confirmation | 10% | RVOL=0.6x MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.500 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 6.76 → Adjusted: 6.76 | Composite contribution: 6.76 × 0.15 = 1.014 | 1.014 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iv Richness | 35% | 82% MEASURED | 10.0 | 3.500 |
| Iv Vs Hv | 10% | IV/HV=0.90x MEASURED | 2.5 | 0.250 |
| Beta Gap Risk | 10% | 3.34 MEASURED | 6.0 | 0.600 |
| Gap History | 10% | Worst day: -13.4%, >5% drops: 11 MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.400 |
| Capital Outlay | 5% | $21,301 per 100 shares MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.450 |
| Entry Timing | 10% | LEAPS available, EARNINGS IN 5d (IV crush risk) MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.400 |
| Options Liquidity | 20% | near-term OI 35,903 (good), LEAPS OI 5,338 (~412d, good), spread 13% (moderate) MEASURED | 7.5 | 1.500 |
| IV Source: IBKR Live 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 7.10 → Adjusted: 7.10 | Composite contribution: 7.10 × 0.30 = 2.130 | 2.130 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward Pe | 30% | 99.3x MEASURED | 2.5 | 0.750 |
| Peg Ratio | 20% | 2.39 MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.800 |
| Ev Ebitda | 20% | 194.8x MEASURED | 1.5 | 0.300 |
| Analyst Upside | 15% | -19.8% to $171 MEASURED | 0.0 | 0.000 |
| Ps Or Pb | 15% | P/S=48.4x (asset-light) MEASURED | 3.0 | 0.450 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 2.30 → Adjusted: 2.30 | Composite contribution: 2.30 × 0.15 = 0.345 | 0.345 | |||
| Pillar | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals (40%) | 7.28 | 40% | 2.912 |
| Technicals (15%) | 6.76 | 15% | 1.014 |
| Fortress Fit (30%) | 7.10 | 30% | 2.130 |
| Valuation (15%) | 2.30 | 15% | 0.345 |
| Composite Score | 6.40 | ||
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 213.01 | yfinance/IBKR |
| Market Cap | $226.22B | yfinance |
| IV (IBKR) | 82.2% | IBKR live |
| IV (yfinance) | 83.0% | yfinance options |
| HV 30d | 91.6% | computed |
| Beta | 3.338 | yfinance |
| Revenue Growth | 26.3% | yfinance |
| Gross Margin | 97.5% | yfinance |
| Operating Margin | 15.4% | yfinance |
| FCF | $824.8M | yfinance |
| ROE (ref) | 11.3% | yfinance |
| ROA (ref) | 5.9% | yfinance |
| Total Equity | N/A | yfinance |
| D/E Ratio | 5.91 | yfinance |
| Current Ratio | 5.43 | yfinance |
| EPS Trailing | 0.75 | yfinance |
| EPS Forward | 2.14 | yfinance |
| Earnings Growth | -12.3% | yfinance |
| Fwd P/E | 99.35 | yfinance |
| PEG Ratio | 2.39 | yfinance |
| EV/EBITDA | 194.79 | yfinance |
| P/S Ratio | 48.43 | yfinance |
| P/B Ratio (ref) | 29.01 | yfinance |
| Analyst Target | $170.83861 | yfinance |
| Near-term ATM OI | 35,903 | ~45d chain |
| LEAPS ATM OI | 5,338 | ~412d chain |
| Near-term Spread % | 13.2% | ~45d chain |
| Has LEAPS | Yes | yfinance |
| Next Earnings | 2026-05-07 | yfinance |
| Worst 1-Day Drop | -13.4% | price history |
| >5% Drop Days | 11 | price history |
| RSI 14 | 67.2 | computed |
| MACD | 19.19 | computed |
| ADX 14 | 37.30 | computed |
| Relative Volume | 0.64 | computed |
| 52W High | $237.68 | yfinance |
| 52W Low | $100.02 | yfinance |
| 1Y Return | +86.8% | yfinance |
The scoring engine delivers a CAUTIOUS YES verdict on ARM with moderate 5/10 conviction, driven by a solid fundamental profile offset by extreme valuation concerns. The 7.3/10 fundamentals score reflects ARM's exceptional 97.5% gross margins, robust 26.3% revenue growth, and spectacular forward earnings trajectory showing 186% EPS growth ahead. However, the devastating 2.3/10 valuation score caps enthusiasm, with the stock trading at 99x forward P/E, 195x EV/EBITDA, and 48x price-to-sales, while analyst targets sit 20% below current levels at 171. The technical picture (6.8/10) shows strong trend alignment with golden cross formation and 37% momentum, though RSI at 67 signals overbought conditions. For a 1-2 year LEAPS horizon, ARM presents a classic growth-at-any-price dilemma where exceptional business fundamentals must overcome nosebleed valuations.
ARM exhibits strong bullish momentum with price above both 50-day and 200-day moving averages in a golden cross formation, supported by a robust ADX of 37 indicating strong trending conditions. The 37.4% rate of change confirms powerful upward momentum, though RSI at 67 and Bollinger Band positioning at 85% suggest the stock is entering overbought territory. Key support levels sit at 161, 141, and 138, providing potential entry points on any pullback.
| Scenario | Price Target | Timeline | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $140 | 12-18 | Valuation compression hits as AI hype fades and growth inevitably slows from current unsustainable levels. |
| Base | $190 | 12-18 | Stock treads water as strong fundamentals battle rich valuation, with modest gains as earnings grow into the multiple. |
| Bull | $280 | 18-24 | AI infrastructure boom sustains premium valuations while ARM's architecture dominance drives continued explosive growth. |
The primary risk is severe valuation compression if growth disappoints or AI enthusiasm wanes, given metrics that suggest the stock has priced in perfection. Earnings in 5 days present immediate IV crush risk for options positions. High beta of 3.34 means ARM will amplify any semiconductor sector weakness, while the 11 historical single-day drops exceeding 5% highlight gap-down risks that could devastate structured positions.
ARM scores an impressive 7.1/10 Fortress Fit, driven primarily by exceptional 82% implied volatility that creates rich premium collection opportunities. The moderate capital outlay of $21,301 per 100 shares makes position sizing manageable, while decent LEAPS liquidity supports longer-term structures. However, the high 3.34 beta and history of gap moves create meaningful tail risks that require careful strike selection and position management.
Overall: ALL PASSED
| Gate | Detail |
|---|---|
| ✓ G1 Price Data | $17.88 |
| ✓ G2 Market Cap | Market Cap: $7.26B |
| ✓ G3 Price History | 252 trading days (min: 100) |
| ✓ G4 Options | Options available (16 expirations) |
| ✓ G5 Delisting | No delisting signals |
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 25% | 41.4% (crypto-adj) MEASURED | 9.1 | 2.285 |
| Price Momentum | 25% | +527.4% 1Y MEASURED | 10.0 | 2.500 |
| Cash Position | 20% | Cash/MCap=8.7%, D/Cash=4.4x (high leverage) MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.995 |
| Gross Margin | 15% | 28.4% MEASURED | 5.4 | 0.808 |
| Analyst Sentiment | 15% | strong_buy, +57% upside MEASURED | 8.5 | 1.275 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 7.86 → Adjusted: 7.86 | Composite contribution: 7.86 × 0.40 = 3.144 | 3.144 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Alignment | 25% | above 50-DMA, above 200-DMA, golden cross, ADX=12 (choppy) MEASURED | 8.0 | 2.000 |
| Mean Reversion | 25% | RSI=55 (warming up), %B=60 (mid-band) MEASURED | 4.5 | 1.125 |
| Momentum | 20% | MACD below signal, histogram negative, ROC=41.5% (strong up) MEASURED | 5.2 | 1.040 |
| Positioning Sentiment | 20% | SI=16.8% (very high, contrarian fuel), P/C=0.46 (bullish sentiment) MEASURED | 7.6 | 1.520 |
| Volume Confirmation | 10% | RVOL=0.4x (weak) MEASURED | 3.0 | 0.300 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.99 → Adjusted: 5.99 | Composite contribution: 5.99 × 0.15 = 0.898 | 0.898 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iv Richness | 35% | 104% MEASURED | 10.0 | 3.500 |
| Iv Vs Hv | 10% | IV/HV=1.11x MEASURED | 7.5 | 0.750 |
| Beta Gap Risk | 10% | 3.03 MEASURED | 6.0 | 0.600 |
| Gap History | 10% | Worst day: -17.5%, >5% drops: 40 MEASURED | 2.0 | 0.200 |
| Capital Outlay | 5% | $1,788 per 100 shares MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.450 |
| Entry Timing | 10% | LEAPS available, EARNINGS IN 3d (IV crush risk) MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.400 |
| Options Liquidity | 20% | near-term OI 82,956 (deep), LEAPS OI 1,677 (~595d, workable), spread 146% (wide) MEASURED | 6.5 | 1.300 |
| IV Source: IBKR Live 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 7.20 → Adjusted: 7.20 | Composite contribution: 7.20 × 0.30 = 2.160 | 2.160 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ps Ratio | 25% | 32.4x MEASURED | 1.5 | 0.375 |
| Analyst Upside | 25% | +56.6% to $28 MEASURED | 10.0 | 2.500 |
| Range Position | 25% | -30% from 52W high MEASURED | 5.6 | 1.390 |
| Mc Rev Ratio | 15% | 32.4x MCap/Rev MEASURED | 3.0 | 0.452 |
| Ev Revenue | 10% | 40.3x MEASURED | 1.5 | 0.150 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 4.87 → Adjusted: 4.87 | Composite contribution: 4.87 × 0.15 = 0.731 | 0.731 | |||
| Pillar | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals (40%) | 7.86 | 40% | 3.144 |
| Technicals (15%) | 5.99 | 15% | 0.898 |
| Fortress Fit (30%) | 7.20 | 30% | 2.160 |
| Valuation (15%) | 4.87 | 15% | 0.731 |
| Composite Score | 6.93 | ||
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 17.88 | yfinance/IBKR |
| Market Cap | $7.26B | yfinance |
| IV (IBKR) | 103.6% | IBKR live |
| IV (yfinance) | 103.5% | yfinance options |
| HV 30d | 93.2% | computed |
| Beta | 3.028 | yfinance |
| Revenue Growth | 41.4% | yfinance |
| Gross Margin | 28.4% | yfinance |
| Operating Margin | 236.1% | yfinance |
| FCF | $-1.52B | yfinance |
| ROE (ref) | -108.3% | yfinance |
| ROA (ref) | 0.9% | yfinance |
| Total Equity | N/A | yfinance |
| D/E Ratio | 331.04 | yfinance |
| Current Ratio | 3.79 | yfinance |
| EPS Trailing | -2.15 | yfinance |
| EPS Forward | 0.54 | yfinance |
| Earnings Growth | N/A | yfinance |
| Fwd P/E | 33.11 | yfinance |
| PEG Ratio | N/A | yfinance |
| EV/EBITDA | 38.15 | yfinance |
| P/S Ratio | 32.41 | yfinance |
| P/B Ratio (ref) | 8.99 | yfinance |
| Analyst Target | $28.0 | yfinance |
| Near-term ATM OI | 82,956 | ~45d chain |
| LEAPS ATM OI | 1,677 | ~595d chain |
| Near-term Spread % | 146.5% | ~45d chain |
| Has LEAPS | Yes | yfinance |
| Next Earnings | 2026-05-05 | yfinance |
| Worst 1-Day Drop | -17.5% | price history |
| >5% Drop Days | 40 | price history |
| RSI 14 | 55.1 | computed |
| MACD | 0.75 | computed |
| ADX 14 | 12.50 | computed |
| Relative Volume | 0.43 | computed |
| 52W High | $25.52 | yfinance |
| 52W Low | $2.875 | yfinance |
| 1Y Return | +527.4% | yfinance |
The scoring engine delivers a CAUTIOUS YES verdict with 5/10 conviction, reflecting CIFR's position as a high-beta Bitcoin mining play with compelling fundamentals but stretched positioning. The 7.9/10 Fundamentals score captures crypto-adjusted revenue growth of 41.4% and exceptional analyst sentiment (strong buy rating with 57% upside to 28), while the massive 527% one-year price surge demonstrates Bitcoin correlation strength. However, the weak 4.9/10 Valuation score reflects extreme multiples (32.4x P/S, 40.3x EV/Revenue) that even crypto-adjusted models find stretched. The solid 7.2/10 Fortress Fit score stems from rich 104% implied volatility and manageable 1,788 capital outlay per 100 shares, though high beta of 3.03 and frequent gap risk (40 drops >5%) create structural volatility. The composite 6.9/10 score positions this as a conviction play on Bitcoin's continued strength rather than traditional equity metrics. With cash representing only 8.7% of market cap and debt-to-cash at 4.4x, CIFR carries meaningful leverage to crypto moves. The 28.4% gross margin suggests operational efficiency in mining economics, while the strong analyst backing (14 analysts, strong buy consensus) indicates institutional confidence in the Bitcoin thesis despite valuation concerns.
CIFR shows mixed technical signals with the 6.0/10 Technicals score reflecting decent trend alignment (above both 50-day and 200-day moving averages with golden cross) but momentum concerns. The RSI at 55 signals warming up conditions, while MACD below signal line and negative histogram suggest near-term consolidation. The stock trades 30% below its 52-week high of 25.52, providing some relief from peak momentum. Key support levels at 15.04, 14.52, and 14.07 offer downside structure, while resistance at 18.03, 19.70, and 20.24 caps immediate upside. Volume confirmation remains weak at 0.4x relative volume, though high short interest of 16.8% provides contrarian fuel for any Bitcoin-driven rally. The positioning score of 1 (LEANING STRETCHED) suggests the recent 527% run has created extended conditions that favor patient entry over aggressive chasing.
| Scenario | Price Target | Timeline | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $12 | 6-9 months | Bitcoin correction below 40,000 triggers mining stock selloff, with high leverage and stretched valuation creating downside acceleration toward 2024 lows. |
| Base | $22 | 12-15 months | Gradual Bitcoin appreciation supports mining economics while revenue growth continues, though valuation multiple compression limits upside to modest gains. |
| Bull | $35 | 18-24 months | Bitcoin breakthrough above 100,000 drives institutional mining demand while CIFR's operational leverage and efficiency gains justify premium valuation multiples. |
Earnings announcement in 3 days creates immediate IV crush risk for any Fortress structure initiated now, potentially eroding the rich 104% implied volatility that makes this attractive. Bitcoin correlation cuts both ways, with the 3.03 beta amplifying any crypto weakness, while the company's high leverage (debt-to-cash 4.4x) creates balance sheet vulnerability during mining profitability downturns. The gap history shows 40 instances of >5% daily drops with worst single day at -17.5%, indicating structural volatility that can overwhelm Fortress protection. Valuation remains the primary concern even under crypto-adjusted models, with 32.4x sales and 40.3x EV/revenue multiples requiring sustained Bitcoin strength and operational execution. The stretched positioning after 527% gains suggests any Bitcoin disappointment or mining difficulty increases could trigger significant multiple compression, while the company's limited cash position (8.7% of market cap) provides little buffer during crypto winter scenarios.
The 7.2/10 Fortress Fit score reflects excellent IV richness at 104% and reasonable capital outlay of 1,788 per 100 shares, making this viable for income generation despite high volatility. LEAPS options show workable liquidity with 1,677 open interest at 595 days, though wide 146% spreads increase transaction costs. The high beta and extensive gap history require careful strike selection and position sizing, while the immediate earnings catalyst demands post-announcement entry to avoid IV crush. Live IV data quality supports accurate fortress construction.
Overall: ALL PASSED
| Gate | Detail |
|---|---|
| ✓ G1 Price Data | $164.54 |
| ✓ G2 Market Cap | Market Cap: $143.88B |
| ✓ G3 Price History | 252 trading days (min: 100) |
| ✓ G4 Options | Options available (19 expirations) |
| ✓ G5 Delisting | No delisting signals |
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 25% | 22.1% [consistent] MEASURED | 8.9 | 2.213 |
| Gross Margin | 15% | 51.0% [+1.5pp YoY] MEASURED | 6.0 | 0.901 |
| Operating Margin | 15% | 18.7% [+5.0pp YoY] MEASURED | 7.7 | 1.160 |
| Fcf Yield | 10% | 1.0% MEASURED | 3.0 | 0.300 |
| Roic | 15% | ROA=3.9% (ROIC fallback) MEASURED | 5.4 | 0.805 |
| Debt Health | 10% | ND/EBITDA=0.5x, ICR=21.4x, CR=2.01 MEASURED | 9.2 | 0.922 |
| Earnings Trajectory | 10% | EPS(T)=3.07, EPS(F)=5.42, Fwd=+77% MEASURED | 8.0 | 0.800 |
| 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 7.10 → Adjusted: 7.10 | Composite contribution: 7.10 × 0.40 = 2.840 | 2.840 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Alignment | 25% | above 50-DMA, above 200-DMA, golden cross, ADX=47 (strong trend) MEASURED | 10.0 | 2.500 |
| Mean Reversion | 25% | RSI=77 (overbought), %B=83 (above mid-band) MEASURED | 0.5 | 0.125 |
| Momentum | 20% | MACD above signal, histogram positive, ROC=54.3% (strong up) MEASURED | 8.2 | 1.640 |
| Positioning Sentiment | 20% | SI=3.9% (moderate), P/C=1.29 (elevated puts) MEASURED | 6.8 | 1.360 |
| Volume Confirmation | 10% | RVOL=0.4x (weak) MEASURED | 3.0 | 0.300 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.92 → Adjusted: 5.92 | Composite contribution: 5.92 × 0.15 = 0.888 | 0.888 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iv Richness | 35% | 82% MEASURED | 10.0 | 3.500 |
| Iv Vs Hv | 10% | IV/HV=1.29x MEASURED | 7.5 | 0.750 |
| Beta Gap Risk | 10% | 1.82 MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.900 |
| Gap History | 10% | Worst day: -18.6%, >5% drops: 11 MEASURED | 2.0 | 0.200 |
| Capital Outlay | 5% | $16,454 per 100 shares MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.450 |
| Entry Timing | 10% | LEAPS available MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.550 |
| Options Liquidity | 20% | near-term OI 85,703 (deep), LEAPS OI 200 (~412d, illiquid), spread 16% (moderate) MEASURED | 4.5 | 0.900 |
| IV Source: IBKR Live 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 7.25 → Adjusted: 7.25 | Composite contribution: 7.25 × 0.30 = 2.175 | 2.175 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward Pe | 30% | 30.3x MEASURED | 4.0 | 1.200 |
| Peg Ratio | 20% | 1.80 MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.800 |
| Ev Ebitda | 20% | 52.9x MEASURED | 1.5 | 0.300 |
| Analyst Upside | 15% | -22.0% to $128 MEASURED | 0.0 | 0.000 |
| Ps Or Pb | 15% | P/S=17.6x (asset-light) MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.825 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 3.12 → Adjusted: 3.12 | Composite contribution: 3.12 × 0.15 = 0.468 | 0.468 | |||
| Pillar | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals (40%) | 7.10 | 40% | 2.840 |
| Technicals (15%) | 5.92 | 15% | 0.888 |
| Fortress Fit (30%) | 7.25 | 30% | 2.175 |
| Valuation (15%) | 3.12 | 15% | 0.468 |
| Composite Score | 6.37 | ||
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 164.54 | yfinance/IBKR |
| Market Cap | $143.88B | yfinance |
| IV (IBKR) | 81.7% | IBKR live |
| IV (yfinance) | 81.1% | yfinance options |
| HV 30d | 63.1% | computed |
| Beta | 1.822 | yfinance |
| Revenue Growth | 22.1% | yfinance |
| Gross Margin | 51.0% | yfinance |
| Operating Margin | 18.7% | yfinance |
| FCF | $1.44B | yfinance |
| ROE (ref) | 19.3% | yfinance |
| ROA (ref) | 3.9% | yfinance |
| Total Equity | N/A | yfinance |
| D/E Ratio | 33.48 | yfinance |
| Current Ratio | 2.01 | yfinance |
| EPS Trailing | 3.07 | yfinance |
| EPS Forward | 5.42 | yfinance |
| Earnings Growth | 106.3% | yfinance |
| Fwd P/E | 30.33 | yfinance |
| PEG Ratio | 1.80 | yfinance |
| EV/EBITDA | 52.88 | yfinance |
| P/S Ratio | 17.56 | yfinance |
| P/B Ratio (ref) | 9.74 | yfinance |
| Analyst Target | $128.36064 | yfinance |
| Near-term ATM OI | 85,703 | ~45d chain |
| LEAPS ATM OI | 200 | ~412d chain |
| Near-term Spread % | 16.5% | ~45d chain |
| Has LEAPS | Yes | yfinance |
| Next Earnings | 2026-05-29 | yfinance |
| Worst 1-Day Drop | -18.6% | price history |
| >5% Drop Days | 11 | price history |
| RSI 14 | 76.7 | computed |
| MACD | 16.35 | computed |
| ADX 14 | 47.10 | computed |
| Relative Volume | 0.43 | computed |
| 52W High | $170.84 | yfinance |
| 52W Low | $53.78 | yfinance |
| 1Y Return | +182.7% | yfinance |
MRVL receives a CAUTIOUS YES rating driven by strong fundamentals (7.1/10) and excellent Fortress structure potential (7.2/10), though severely constrained by poor valuation (3.1/10) that caps conviction at 5/10. The semiconductor giant demonstrates robust operational execution with 22.1% consistent revenue growth, impressive operating margin expansion of 500bp year-over-year to 18.7%, and stellar earnings trajectory showing 77% forward EPS growth. The balance sheet remains fortress-like with only 0.5x net debt to EBITDA and pristine liquidity metrics. However, the market has clearly gotten ahead of fundamentals, with shares trading at 30.3x forward earnings and 52.9x EV/EBITDA, while analysts see 22% downside to their 128 consensus target. Technical momentum (8.2/10) supports the growth narrative, but mean reversion signals flash warning with RSI at 77 in overbought territory. The elevated 82% implied volatility creates exceptional premium harvesting opportunities for Fortress builders, though LEAPS liquidity presents execution challenges.
MRVL exhibits classic momentum extension characteristics with price riding well above both 50-day and 200-day moving averages in a confirmed golden cross pattern. The ADX reading of 47 confirms strong trending conditions, while MACD remains constructively above its signal line with positive histogram momentum. However, the RSI at 77 and Bollinger Band position at 83% suggest the rally has reached stretched levels requiring consolidation. Volume confirmation remains weak at just 0.4x relative volume, indicating institutional participation has waned during this final push higher. Support levels emerge at 86, 81, and 79 should profit-taking materialize.
| Scenario | Price Target | Timeline | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $95 | 6-9 months | Semiconductor cycle downturn combined with valuation reset drives shares toward 20x forward earnings amid slowing AI infrastructure spending. |
| Base | $140 | 12-18 months | Continued data center and AI chip demand supports earnings growth while valuation compresses modestly to 25x forward multiple. |
| Bull | $200 | 18-24 months | MRVL becomes dominant AI infrastructure play with sustained 25%+ growth rates justifying premium valuation through 2026. |
Semiconductor cyclicality represents the primary structural risk, as AI infrastructure spending could decelerate faster than anticipated, pressuring both growth rates and premium valuations. Competition from hyperscaler in-house chip development threatens MRVL's data center positioning. Geopolitical tensions around China trade restrictions could disrupt supply chains or limit market access. Technical risk centers on the severely overbought condition with multiple momentum indicators suggesting consolidation pressure ahead.
MRVL scores an impressive 7.2/10 for Fortress applications, anchored by exceptional 82% implied volatility that generates substantial premium income. The 1.82 beta provides meaningful upside participation while gap risk remains manageable despite 11 historical drops exceeding 5%. Capital efficiency looks attractive at 16,454 per 100 shares for protective structures. However, LEAPS liquidity constraints with only 200 open interest at 412 days present execution challenges for longer-term structures, while 16% bid-ask spreads increase transaction costs.
Disclaimer: This report is auto-generated for informational purposes only. Verdicts and conviction scores are computed by a deterministic quantitative scoring engine (4-pillar model with hard gates). Narrative sections are generated by Anthropic Claude and may contain errors. Fundamental data from Yahoo Finance. IV data from IBKR (where available) or Yahoo Finance options. All data subject to delays. Options trading involves substantial risk. Always do your own due diligence.