Quantitative Scoring Engine v5.1 — 3 Tickers
| Ticker | Price | Verdict | Conviction | Score | Base Target | Upside | Fortress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELL | $479.81 | CAUTIOUS YES | 5/10 | 6.6 | $503 | +5% | Good |
| MU | $1,011.75 | YES | 8/10 | 7.9 | $1,350 | +33% | Good |
| SNDK | $1,786.85 | YES | 8/10 | 7.7 | $2,100 | +18% | Decent |
Overall: ALL PASSED
| Gate | Detail |
|---|---|
| ✓ G1 Price Data | $479.81 |
| ✓ G2 Market Cap | Market Cap: $310.03B |
| ✓ G3 Price History | 251 trading days (min: 100) |
| ✓ G4 Options | Options available (18 expirations) |
| ✓ G5 Delisting | No delisting signals |
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 25% | 87.5% [volatile] MEASURED | 9.0 | 2.250 |
| Gross Margin | 15% | 19.2% [-0.5pp YoY] MEASURED | 0.7 | 0.105 |
| Operating Margin | 15% | 8.9% [+2.6pp YoY] MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.746 |
| Fcf Yield | 10% | 1.8% (growth adj) MEASURED | 6.1 | 0.613 |
| Roic | 15% | ROA=7.0% (ROIC fallback) MEASURED | 6.8 | 1.020 |
| Debt Health | 10% | ND/EBITDA=1.4x, ICR=9.2x, CR=0.95 MEASURED | 6.7 | 0.672 |
| Earnings Trajectory | 10% | EPS(T)=12.28, EPS(F)=22.21, Fwd=+81% MEASURED | 8.0 | 0.800 |
| 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 6.21 → Adjusted: 6.21 | Composite contribution: 6.21 × 0.40 = 2.484 | 2.484 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Alignment | 25% | above 50-DMA, above 200-DMA, golden cross, ADX=13 (choppy) MEASURED | 8.0 | 2.000 |
| Mean Reversion | 25% | RSI=59 (warming up), %B=79 (above mid-band) MEASURED | 3.5 | 0.875 |
| Momentum | 20% | MACD above signal, histogram positive, ROC=25.9% (strong up) MEASURED | 8.2 | 1.640 |
| Positioning Sentiment | 20% | SI=4.4% (moderate), P/C=1.06 (elevated puts) MEASURED | 6.8 | 1.360 |
| Volume Confirmation | 10% | RVOL=0.9x MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.500 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 6.38 → Adjusted: 6.38 | Composite contribution: 6.38 × 0.15 = 0.957 | 0.957 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iv Richness | 35% | 80% MEASURED | 10.0 | 3.494 |
| Iv Vs Hv | 10% | IV/HV=0.95x MEASURED | 4.5 | 0.450 |
| Beta Gap Risk | 10% | 1.40 MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.900 |
| Gap History | 10% | Worst day: -9.8%, >5% drops: 18 MEASURED | 6.0 | 0.600 |
| Capital Outlay | 5% | $47,981 per 100 shares MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.450 |
| Entry Timing | 10% | LEAPS available MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.550 |
| Options Liquidity | 20% | near-term OI 57 (illiquid), LEAPS OI 2,021 (~485d, workable), spread 7% MEASURED | 3.5 | 0.700 |
| IV Source: yFinance 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 7.14 → Adjusted: 7.14 | Composite contribution: 7.14 × 0.30 = 2.142 | 2.142 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward Pe | 30% | 21.7x MEASURED | 7.0 | 2.100 |
| Peg Ratio | 20% | 0.81 MEASURED | 8.0 | 1.600 |
| Ev Ebitda | 20% | 23.6x MEASURED | 6.0 | 1.200 |
| Analyst Upside | 15% | +4.8% to $503 MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.743 |
| Ps Or Pb | 15% | P/S=2.3x (asset-light) MEASURED | 9.5 | 1.425 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 7.07 → Adjusted: 7.07 | Composite contribution: 7.07 × 0.15 = 1.060 | 1.060 | |||
| Pillar | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals (40%) | 6.21 | 40% | 2.484 |
| Technicals (15%) | 6.38 | 15% | 0.957 |
| Fortress Fit (30%) | 7.14 | 30% | 2.142 |
| Valuation (15%) | 7.07 | 15% | 1.060 |
| Composite Score | 6.64 | ||
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 479.81 | yfinance/IBKR |
| Market Cap | $310.03B | yfinance |
| IV (IBKR) | — | IBKR live |
| IV (yfinance) | 79.5% | yfinance options |
| HV 30d | 83.8% | computed |
| Beta | 1.401 | yfinance |
| Revenue Growth | 87.5% | yfinance |
| Gross Margin | 19.2% | yfinance |
| Operating Margin | 8.9% | yfinance |
| FCF | $5.43B | yfinance |
| ROE (ref) | N/A | yfinance |
| ROA (ref) | 7.0% | yfinance |
| Total Equity | N/A | yfinance |
| D/E Ratio | N/A | yfinance |
| Current Ratio | 0.95 | yfinance |
| EPS Trailing | 12.28 | yfinance |
| EPS Forward | 22.21 | yfinance |
| Earnings Growth | 282.5% | yfinance |
| Fwd P/E | 21.67 | yfinance |
| PEG Ratio | 0.81 | yfinance |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.56 | yfinance |
| P/S Ratio | 2.31 | yfinance |
| P/B Ratio (ref) | -221.83 | yfinance |
| Analyst Target | $502.91302 | yfinance |
| Near-term ATM OI | 57 | ~45d chain |
| LEAPS ATM OI | 2,021 | ~485d chain |
| Near-term Spread % | 7.1% | ~45d chain |
| Has LEAPS | Yes | yfinance |
| Next Earnings | 2026-09-04 | yfinance |
| Worst 1-Day Drop | -9.8% | price history |
| >5% Drop Days | 18 | price history |
| RSI 14 | 58.9 | computed |
| MACD | 20.07 | computed |
| ADX 14 | 13.30 | computed |
| Relative Volume | 0.89 | computed |
| 52W High | $514.0 | yfinance |
| 52W Low | $110.22 | yfinance |
| 1Y Return | +251.8% | yfinance |
The CAUTIOUS YES verdict on DELL reflects a genuinely strong business trading into a stretched technical setup, with a composite of 6.6 driven mostly by Fortress Fit (7.1) and Valuation (7.1), while Fundamentals sit at a more modest 6.2. The fundamentals story is real but uneven: revenue growth of 87.5% is volatile and gross margins remain thin at 19.2% (hardware economics), but operating margin is expanding (+2.6pp YoY to 8.9%) and forward earnings trajectory is the standout factor at 8.0, with EPS expected to nearly double from 12.28 to 22.21. Debt health is solid (ND/EBITDA 1.4x, interest coverage 9.2x) though the sub-1.0 current ratio (0.95) is worth watching. Valuation at 7.1 is supportive rather than a warning sign: forward P/E of 21.7x and a PEG of 0.81 suggest the market is not fully pricing in the earnings growth, and P/S of 2.3x is attractive for what has become an increasingly asset-light AI infrastructure story. The drag on valuation comes from EV/EBITDA at 23.6x and thin analyst upside of only 4.8% to the 502.91 consensus target, which tells you the sell-side has largely caught up to the stock's 251.8% one-year run. The moderate conviction (5/10) despite decent pillar scores comes down to timing. The stock is MODERATELY STRETCHED UP (positioning score 4), sitting just below its 52-week high of 514 and near resistance at 485.70 after a historic run. This is a good company but not obviously a good entry point today, which is exactly what a cautious yes should look like: own the name, but respect the entry mechanics.
Trend structure is unambiguously bullish, above both the 50-DMA and 200-DMA with a golden cross in place, and momentum is strong (MACD positive, ROC +25.9%). But ADX of 13.3 signals a choppy, non-trending tape underneath the surface strength, and volume confirmation is weak (RVOL 0.9x), meaning the recent push toward highs is not being confirmed by heavy participation. RSI at 58.9 is only warming up, not overbought, but %B at 79 shows price is riding high in its Bollinger range, consistent with the stretched positioning read. Price is pinned between support at 378.04/367.54/357.68 and immediate resistance at 485.70, essentially at the top of its 52-week range (110.22 to 514.00). A clean break above 485.70 opens a retest of the 514 high, but given the stretched-up positioning score and elevated put/call ratio (1.06) suggesting some hedging demand, a pullback toward the 378-410 zone before further upside would be the healthier technical path and a better entry for new LEAPS structures.
| Scenario | Price Target | Timeline | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $375 | 6-9 months | AI server demand growth decelerates or margins compress further, sending the stock back toward the 378 support shelf as multiple compression outweighs earnings growth. |
| Base | $503 | 12 months | Earnings trajectory plays out roughly as expected (EPS toward 22.21) and the stock grinds toward the current analyst consensus target with normal volatility along the way. |
| Bull | $580 | 18-24 months | Continued AI infrastructure demand drives EPS beats above the 22.21 estimate and the market re-rates the forward multiple modestly higher on sustained margin expansion. |
The biggest structural risk is that this is a low-margin hardware business (19.2% gross margin) riding an AI infrastructure cycle, so any slowdown in enterprise capex or server demand hits both revenue growth and sentiment hard, as shown by an 18-count history of >5% single-day drops and a worst day of -9.8%. Beta of 1.4 and gap-risk history mean this stock moves violently in both directions, which matters for a LEAPS structure exposed to overnight gaps. Options liquidity is a real structural constraint: near-term open interest of 57 contracts is illiquid, and even LEAPS OI of 2,021 with a 7% bid-ask spread means execution costs will eat into returns unless entries and exits are handled patiently. Valuation, while reasonable on a PEG basis, still prices in a lot of continued growth, and analyst upside of only 4.8% suggests limited near-term re-rating room if the AI narrative pauses.
Fortress Fit scores 7.1, driven by excellent IV richness (80% IV, score 10.0) and a very favorable beta/gap profile for premium capture (score 9.0), which together make DELL a strong candidate for structures that harvest elevated implied volatility. The offsetting weaknesses are options liquidity (3.5, wide 7% spreads and thin near-term OI) and IV/HV compression (4.5, IV/HV of 0.95x means realized volatility is running almost as hot as implied, so the volatility premium is not as rich as the headline IV number suggests). Entry timing scores only 5.5 given the stretched price action. Net effect: a name worth structuring, but one where trade construction and patience on fills matter more than usual, and where waiting for a pullback improves both the entry price and the fortress economics.
Overall: ALL PASSED
| Gate | Detail |
|---|---|
| ✓ G1 Price Data | $1011.75 |
| ✓ G2 Market Cap | Market Cap: $1.14T |
| ✓ G3 Price History | 251 trading days (min: 100) |
| ✓ G4 Options | Options available (22 expirations) |
| ✓ G5 Delisting | No delisting signals |
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 25% | 345.7% [volatile] MEASURED | 9.0 | 2.250 |
| Gross Margin | 15% | 72.6% [+39.9pp YoY] MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.500 |
| Operating Margin | 15% | 80.4% [+47.7pp YoY] MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.500 |
| Fcf Yield | 10% | 0.7% (growth adj) MEASURED | 4.5 | 0.450 |
| Roic | 15% | ROA=34.9% (ROIC fallback) MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.500 |
| Debt Health | 10% | ND/EBITDA=-0.3x, ICR=297.0x, CR=3.42 MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.000 |
| Earnings Trajectory | 10% | EPS(T)=46.03, EPS(F)=154.89, Fwd=+236% MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.000 |
| 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 9.20 → Adjusted: 9.20 | Composite contribution: 9.20 × 0.40 = 3.680 | 3.680 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Alignment | 25% | above 50-DMA, above 200-DMA, golden cross, ADX=16 MEASURED | 8.5 | 2.125 |
| Mean Reversion | 25% | RSI=60 (warming up), %B=94 (near upper band) MEASURED | 2.5 | 0.625 |
| Momentum | 20% | MACD above signal, histogram positive, ROC=16.9% (strong up) MEASURED | 8.2 | 1.640 |
| Positioning Sentiment | 20% | SI=2.7% (moderate), P/C=2.37 (extreme fear) MEASURED | 6.6 | 1.320 |
| Volume Confirmation | 10% | RVOL=0.8x MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.500 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 6.21 → Adjusted: 6.21 | Composite contribution: 6.21 × 0.15 = 0.931 | 0.931 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iv Richness | 35% | 73% MEASURED | 9.8 | 3.414 |
| Iv Vs Hv | 10% | IV/HV=0.77x MEASURED | 2.5 | 0.250 |
| Beta Gap Risk | 10% | 2.21 MEASURED | 8.0 | 0.800 |
| Gap History | 10% | Worst day: -13.3%, >5% drops: 25 MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.400 |
| Capital Outlay | 5% | $101,175 per 100 shares MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.250 |
| Entry Timing | 10% | LEAPS available MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.550 |
| Options Liquidity | 20% | near-term OI 580 (thin), LEAPS OI 19,686 (~485d, deep), spread 6% MEASURED | 6.0 | 1.200 |
| IV Source: yFinance 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 6.86 → Adjusted: 6.86 | Composite contribution: 6.86 × 0.30 = 2.058 | 2.058 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward Pe | 30% | 6.5x MEASURED | 10.0 | 3.000 |
| Peg Ratio | 20% | 0.14 MEASURED | 10.0 | 2.000 |
| Ev Ebitda | 20% | 16.5x MEASURED | 6.0 | 1.200 |
| Analyst Upside | 15% | +48.5% to $1502 MEASURED | 7.5 | 1.125 |
| Ps Or Pb | 15% | P/S=12.7x (asset-light) MEASURED | 6.5 | 0.975 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 8.30 → Adjusted: 8.30 | Composite contribution: 8.30 × 0.15 = 1.245 | 1.245 | |||
| Pillar | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals (40%) | 9.20 | 40% | 3.680 |
| Technicals (15%) | 6.21 | 15% | 0.931 |
| Fortress Fit (30%) | 6.86 | 30% | 2.058 |
| Valuation (15%) | 8.30 | 15% | 1.245 |
| Composite Score | 7.91 | ||
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 1011.75 | yfinance/IBKR |
| Market Cap | $1.14T | yfinance |
| IV (IBKR) | — | IBKR live |
| IV (yfinance) | 72.6% | yfinance options |
| HV 30d | 94.9% | computed |
| Beta | 2.213 | yfinance |
| Revenue Growth | 345.7% | yfinance |
| Gross Margin | 72.6% | yfinance |
| Operating Margin | 80.4% | yfinance |
| FCF | $7.64B | yfinance |
| ROE (ref) | 66.6% | yfinance |
| ROA (ref) | 34.9% | yfinance |
| Total Equity | N/A | yfinance |
| D/E Ratio | 6.33 | yfinance |
| Current Ratio | 3.42 | yfinance |
| EPS Trailing | 46.03 | yfinance |
| EPS Forward | 154.89 | yfinance |
| Earnings Growth | 1368.5% | yfinance |
| Fwd P/E | 6.53 | yfinance |
| PEG Ratio | 0.14 | yfinance |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.46 | yfinance |
| P/S Ratio | 12.66 | yfinance |
| P/B Ratio (ref) | 11.34 | yfinance |
| Analyst Target | $1501.9767 | yfinance |
| Near-term ATM OI | 580 | ~45d chain |
| LEAPS ATM OI | 19,686 | ~485d chain |
| Near-term Spread % | 6.1% | ~45d chain |
| Has LEAPS | Yes | yfinance |
| Next Earnings | 2026-09-24 | yfinance |
| Worst 1-Day Drop | -13.3% | price history |
| >5% Drop Days | 25 | price history |
| RSI 14 | 59.5 | computed |
| MACD | 4.22 | computed |
| ADX 14 | 15.50 | computed |
| Relative Volume | 0.79 | computed |
| 52W High | $1255.0 | yfinance |
| 52W Low | $113.46 | yfinance |
| 1Y Return | +720.2% | yfinance |
The quant engine lands on a YES with high conviction (8/10, composite 7.9) primarily because Fundamentals scored a near-perfect 9.2/10, the heaviest-weighted pillar at 40%. Micron is in the middle of an extraordinary memory upcycle: revenue growth of 345.7%, gross margins up 39.9pp YoY to 72.6%, operating margins up 47.7pp YoY to 80.4%, and forward EPS expected to grow 236% (from 46.03 to 154.89). Debt health is essentially pristine (net cash position, ICR of 297x, current ratio 3.42), and ROIC proxy sits at 34.9%. This is an HBM/AI-driven earnings inflection, not a speculative re-rating. Valuation reinforces the fundamental case at 8.3/10. A forward P/E of 6.5x against 236% forward EPS growth produces a PEG of 0.14, which is screaming cheap even after a 720% one-year run. Analysts (43 strong-buy) see another 48.5% upside to a 1502 target. The drag comes from Fortress Fit (6.9/10, 30% weight) and Technicals (6.2/10, 15% weight). Fortress Fit is held back by poor gap history (a -13.3% worst day and 25 historical >5% drops) and a very high capital outlay (~101,175 per 100 shares), both of which matter for structuring LEAPS positions. Technicals are mixed: strong trend alignment and momentum are offset by a stretched mean-reversion reading (RSI 60, %B 94) and weak volume confirmation (RVOL 0.8x). Net effect: this is a fundamentally exceptional, cheaply valued name riding a real structural upcycle, but the entry point and structural mechanics (price, gap risk, compressed IV/HV) mean the Fortress Fit is good, not great. The composite score reflects a genuine conviction call driven by fundamentals and valuation, tempered by near-term technical stretch and structural cost of entry.
Price sits at 1011.75, just above the 990.95 support/resistance pivot and firmly in an uptrend (above 50-DMA and 200-DMA with a golden cross), but ADX of only 15.5 signals the trend lacks strong directional force right now. RSI at 59.5 is warming but not yet overbought, while %B at 94 shows price pressing the upper Bollinger Band, a sign of near-term stretch. MACD and ROC (16.9%) confirm positive momentum is intact, but volume confirmation is weak (RVOL 0.8x), meaning the recent move up isn't being driven by strong participation. Resistance sits close by at 1011.77 and 1089.12, with next major support layers at 891.66 and 854.22 if the stock pulls back. The options market shows a curious tension: put/call ratio of 2.37 signals extreme fear or hedging demand even as price technicals stay constructive, worth watching around the next earnings print. Given the MODERATELY STRETCHED UP positioning signal (4/10), this is not an ideal moment to chase at market, but it does not invalidate the structural bull case either, it argues for staggered entry or waiting for a pullback toward the 950-990 zone.
| Scenario | Price Target | Timeline | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $750 | 12 months | Memory pricing cycle turns down faster than expected or AI/HBM demand growth disappoints, triggering a sharp correction consistent with Micron's historical gap risk (worst single day -13.3%, 25 prior >5% drawdowns). |
| Base | $1,350 | 12-15 months | Earnings trajectory plays out roughly as forecast (EPS toward 150+), multiple compresses modestly from current cheap forward P/E but re-rates toward analyst consensus near 1500. |
| Bull | $1,750 | 18-24 months | HBM/AI memory demand accelerates further, margins stay elevated, and the market re-rates Micron's forward multiple upward given sustained hypergrowth, extending well past the current 1502 analyst target. |
Micron is a cyclical commodity semiconductor business dressed up in an AI growth narrative right now. Revenue growth of 345.7% is explicitly flagged as volatile, and memory pricing cycles have historically busted hard after booms, the gap history factor (25 historical >5% single-day drops, worst day -13.3%) is a direct quantitative echo of this risk. A beta of 2.21 means broad market drawdowns will be amplified in MU specifically. Structurally, capital outlay is high (~101,175 per 100 shares), which limits position sizing flexibility for a Fortress structure, and near-term options liquidity is thin (OI 580) even though LEAPS OI is deep (19,686 contracts around 485 days out) with a 6% spread, meaning execution costs on the shorter legs of any structure need care. The elevated put/call ratio (2.37, extreme fear) alongside a still-bullish price trend is an unusual divergence worth monitoring into the next print, as it could signal informed hedging ahead of a catalyst not fully captured in the trend/momentum scores.
Fortress Fit scores 6.9/10, good but not excellent. IV richness is strong (73% IV, scoring 9.8/10), supportive of premium-selling structures, but IV/HV of 0.77x (score 2.5/10) shows implied vol is actually running below realized volatility, so options are cheaper than the stock's actual price action would justify, a real constraint on structuring net premium capture. Gap history is the weakest link (4.0/10) given Micron's track record of double-digit single-day moves, which raises tail risk for any short-option legs. Capital outlay (5.0/10) is high in absolute dollar terms given the $1000+ share price, and options liquidity (6.0/10) is solid on the LEAPS side but thin near-term. IV data quality is yfinance-sourced with full coverage across all pillars, so there is no data reliability concern here, the moderate score is a genuine structural read, not a data gap.
Overall: ALL PASSED
| Gate | Detail |
|---|---|
| ✓ G1 Price Data | $1786.85 |
| ✓ G2 Market Cap | Market Cap: $260.88B |
| ✓ G3 Price History | 251 trading days (min: 100) |
| ✓ G4 Options | Options available (19 expirations) |
| ✓ G5 Delisting | No delisting signals |
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 25% | 371.6% [volatile] MEASURED | 9.0 | 2.250 |
| Gross Margin | 15% | 71.5% [+52.2pp YoY] MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.500 |
| Operating Margin | 15% | 78.5% [+67.3pp YoY] MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.500 |
| Fcf Yield | 10% | 3.0% (growth adj) MEASURED | 7.3 | 0.735 |
| Roic | 15% | ROA=43.9% (ROIC fallback) MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.500 |
| Debt Health | 10% | ND/EBITDA=-0.9x, ICR=48.3x, CR=2.29 MEASURED | 9.6 | 0.963 |
| Earnings Trajectory | 10% | EPS(T)=80.23, EPS(F)=264.14, Fwd=+229% MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.000 |
| 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 9.45 → Adjusted: 9.45 | Composite contribution: 9.45 × 0.40 = 3.780 | 3.780 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Alignment | 25% | above 50-DMA, above 200-DMA, golden cross, ADX=17 MEASURED | 8.5 | 2.125 |
| Mean Reversion | 25% | RSI=61 (warming up), %B=103 (near upper band) MEASURED | 2.5 | 0.625 |
| Momentum | 20% | MACD above signal, histogram positive, ROC=28.5% (strong up) MEASURED | 8.2 | 1.640 |
| Positioning Sentiment | 20% | SI=7.4% (elevated), P/C=0.91 (neutral) MEASURED | 7.1 | 1.420 |
| Volume Confirmation | 10% | RVOL=1.0x (normal) MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.550 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 6.36 → Adjusted: 6.36 | Composite contribution: 6.36 × 0.15 = 0.954 | 0.954 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iv Richness | 35% | 89% MEASURED | 10.0 | 3.500 |
| Iv Vs Hv | 10% | IV/HV=0.60x MEASURED | 1.0 | 0.100 |
| Beta Gap Risk | 10% | N/A NO DATA | 5.0 | 0.500 |
| Gap History | 10% | Worst day: -20.3%, >5% drops: 46 MEASURED | 2.0 | 0.200 |
| Capital Outlay | 5% | $178,685 per 100 shares MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.250 |
| Entry Timing | 10% | LEAPS available MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.550 |
| Options Liquidity | 20% | near-term OI 334 (illiquid), LEAPS OI 2,283 (~394d, workable), spread 6% MEASURED | 3.5 | 0.700 |
| IV Source: yFinance 6/7 factors have data (86%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.80 → Adjusted: 5.80 | Composite contribution: 5.80 × 0.30 = 1.740 | 1.740 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward Pe | 30% | 6.8x MEASURED | 10.0 | 3.000 |
| Peg Ratio | 20% | 0.03 MEASURED | 10.0 | 2.000 |
| Ev Ebitda | 20% | 20.7x MEASURED | 6.0 | 1.200 |
| Analyst Upside | 15% | +18.0% to $2108 MEASURED | 6.3 | 0.944 |
| Ps Or Pb | 15% | P/S=12.9x (asset-light) MEASURED | 6.5 | 0.975 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 8.12 → Adjusted: 8.12 | Composite contribution: 8.12 × 0.15 = 1.218 | 1.218 | |||
| Pillar | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals (40%) | 9.45 | 40% | 3.780 |
| Technicals (15%) | 6.36 | 15% | 0.954 |
| Fortress Fit (30%) | 5.80 | 30% | 1.740 |
| Valuation (15%) | 8.12 | 15% | 1.218 |
| Composite Score | 7.69 | ||
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 1786.85 | yfinance/IBKR |
| Market Cap | $260.88B | yfinance |
| IV (IBKR) | — | IBKR live |
| IV (yfinance) | 88.8% | yfinance options |
| HV 30d | 147.7% | computed |
| Beta | — | yfinance |
| Revenue Growth | 371.6% | yfinance |
| Gross Margin | 71.5% | yfinance |
| Operating Margin | 78.5% | yfinance |
| FCF | $7.74B | yfinance |
| ROE (ref) | 91.6% | yfinance |
| ROA (ref) | 43.9% | yfinance |
| Total Equity | N/A | yfinance |
| D/E Ratio | N/A | yfinance |
| Current Ratio | 2.29 | yfinance |
| EPS Trailing | 80.23 | yfinance |
| EPS Forward | 264.14 | yfinance |
| Earnings Growth | N/A | yfinance |
| Fwd P/E | 6.76 | yfinance |
| PEG Ratio | 0.03 | computed |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.72 | yfinance |
| P/S Ratio | 12.88 | yfinance |
| P/B Ratio (ref) | 19.20 | yfinance |
| Analyst Target | $2107.6956 | yfinance |
| Near-term ATM OI | 334 | ~45d chain |
| LEAPS ATM OI | 2,283 | ~394d chain |
| Near-term Spread % | 5.7% | ~45d chain |
| Has LEAPS | Yes | yfinance |
| Next Earnings | 2026-11-07 | yfinance |
| Worst 1-Day Drop | -20.3% | price history |
| >5% Drop Days | 46 | price history |
| RSI 14 | 61.1 | computed |
| MACD | -15.89 | computed |
| ADX 14 | 17.20 | computed |
| Relative Volume | 1.03 | computed |
| 52W High | $2354.39 | yfinance |
| 52W Low | $43.202 | yfinance |
| 1Y Return | +3825.4% | yfinance |
The quant engine lands on YES with 8/10 conviction largely because Fundamentals (9.4/10, 40% weight) and Valuation (8.1/10, 15% weight) are about as strong as this model produces. SNDK is riding the NAND pricing upcycle: revenue growth of 371.6%, gross margin +52.2pp YoY to 71.5%, operating margin +67.3pp YoY to 78.5%, and a forward EPS jump from 80.23 to 264.14 (+229%) all scored perfect or near-perfect. Debt health is excellent (net debt negative, ICR 48x). On valuation, forward P/E of 6.8x and a PEG of 0.03 are screaming cheap against that forward earnings ramp, even though EV/EBITDA (20.7x) and P/S (12.9x) show the market has already paid up for the cycle in absolute terms. The drag on conviction is Fortress Fit at 5.8/10 (30% weight, the second-largest pillar), which is well above the 4.0 hard-cutoff but clearly the weak link. Capital outlay is punishing ($178,685 per 100 shares at this price), near-term options are thin (OI 334) even though LEAPS OI (2,283, ~394 days out) is workable, and gap history is ugly: a worst single day of -20.3% and 46 separate >5% drops. IV/HV of 0.60x means realized volatility (147.7%) has been running well above implied (88.8%), so premium sold here has historically underpriced the actual move risk, even as IV percentile (89%) looks rich in isolation. Beta/gap-risk factor had no data and defaulted neutral (FF coverage is 86%, not a red flag, just an unmeasured input). Composite of 7.7/10 reflects a name where the earnings and valuation story is exceptional, technicals are constructive but not pristine, and the Fortress structuring math (expensive shares, historically violent drawdowns, thin front-month liquidity) is the primary reason this isn't a 9-10 conviction call despite the fundamental strength.
Trend alignment is strong, price above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages with a golden cross, but ADX of 17.2 says the trend lacks real force, it's drifting up rather than driving up. RSI at 61 and %B at 103 put the stock right at the upper Bollinger band, consistent with the STRETCHED UP positioning signal (6/10), meaning near-term chase risk is elevated. MACD histogram is still positive and ROC of 28.5% shows real momentum, but this is a stock that has already run 3825% over the past year off a $43 base, so momentum readings need to be read with that context. Price at 1786.85 sits below resistance at 1861 and well below the 52-week high of 2354.39, with support stacked at 1499.69, 1325.03 and 1277.33. Given the stretched positioning and weak ADX, chasing strength here into resistance is not ideal; a pullback toward the 1500-1600 zone would be a cleaner entry for initiating or adding to LEAPS structures, though the fundamental and valuation case supports staying involved regardless of short-term entry precision.
| Scenario | Price Target | Timeline | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $1,325 | 12-18 months | NAND pricing cycle rolls over faster than expected or a sharp market de-risking hits this extended, high-beta name, sending it back toward the 1325-1500 support shelf. |
| Base | $2,100 | 12-18 months | Earnings ramp materializes roughly as forecast (EPS toward 264), the stock grinds toward the 2108 analyst consensus target as forward multiple normalizes higher off 6.8x. |
| Bull | $2,700 | 18-24 months | Memory upcycle extends longer than expected with continued AI-storage demand tailwinds, pushing the stock through the 2354 prior high into new territory as forward earnings estimates get revised up further. |
This is a NAND memory name that has moved 3825% in a year, that kind of move is a function of a violent pricing upcycle in a historically boom-bust industry. The gap history (46 days with >5% moves, a -20.3% single-day drop) is the clearest quantitative evidence that this stock can reprice extremely fast in either direction, and IV/HV of 0.60x suggests options premium has not always compensated sellers for that realized volatility. A cyclical downturn in memory pricing, oversupply, or a slowdown in AI-driven storage demand would hit both the earnings trajectory and the multiple simultaneously. From a structuring standpoint, the $178,685 per 100 shares capital outlay and thin near-term options liquidity (OI of 334) are real constraints, LEAPS OI of ~2,283 at roughly 394 days is workable but the ~6% spread adds friction. Beta/gap-risk could not be assessed (no data, defaulted neutral) so treat the true tail-risk profile as somewhat less certain than the other factors suggest.
Fortress Fit scores 5.8/10, above the 4.0 hard-cutoff so no verdict cap applies, but it is clearly the pillar holding back higher conviction. IV richness (89th percentile) is attractive for premium selling, but that is offset by a poor IV/HV ratio (0.60x, HV running hotter than IV), a rough gap history, high capital outlay per contract, and thin near-term options liquidity even though LEAPS liquidity is workable at ~394 days out. This is a name where the fundamental and valuation case is excellent but the mechanics of building a capital-efficient, well-hedged Fortress structure are more difficult than average, largely due to price (expense per contract) and historical volatility of moves rather than options availability itself.
Disclaimer: This report is auto-generated for informational purposes only. Verdicts and conviction scores are computed by a deterministic quantitative scoring engine (4-pillar model with hard gates). Narrative sections are generated by Anthropic Claude and may contain errors. Fundamental data from Yahoo Finance. IV data from IBKR (where available) or Yahoo Finance options. All data subject to delays. Options trading involves substantial risk. Always do your own due diligence.