Quantitative Scoring Engine v5.1 — 1 Ticker
| Ticker | Price | Verdict | Conviction | Score | Base Target | Upside | Fortress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOG | $379.68 | CAUTIOUS YES | 5/10 | 6.5 | $350 | -8% | Decent |
Overall: ALL PASSED
| Gate | Detail |
|---|---|
| ✓ G1 Price Data | $379.68 |
| ✓ G2 Market Cap | Market Cap: $4.59T |
| ✓ G3 Price History | 252 trading days (min: 100) |
| ✓ G4 Options | Options available (19 expirations) |
| ✓ G5 Delisting | No delisting signals |
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 25% | 18.0% [consistent] MEASURED | 8.2 | 2.042 |
| Gross Margin | 15% | 59.7% [+0.1pp YoY] MEASURED | 7.4 | 1.116 |
| Operating Margin | 15% | 31.6% [-2.4pp YoY] MEASURED | 9.3 | 1.397 |
| Fcf Yield | 10% | 0.8% MEASURED | 2.8 | 0.283 |
| Roic | 15% | ROA=15.4% (ROIC fallback) MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.500 |
| Debt Health | 10% | ND/EBITDA=-0.3x, ICR=245.5x, CR=2.00 MEASURED | 9.6 | 0.963 |
| Earnings Trajectory | 10% | EPS(T)=13.09, EPS(F)=13.53, Fwd=+3% MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.550 |
| 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 7.85 → Adjusted: 7.85 | Composite contribution: 7.85 × 0.40 = 3.140 | 3.140 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Alignment | 25% | above 50-DMA, above 200-DMA, golden cross, ADX=36 (strong trend) MEASURED | 10.0 | 2.500 |
| Mean Reversion | 25% | RSI=82 (overbought), %B=114 (near upper band) MEASURED | 0.0 | 0.000 |
| Momentum | 20% | MACD above signal, histogram positive, ROC=28.7% (strong up) MEASURED | 8.2 | 1.640 |
| Positioning Sentiment | 20% | SI=N/A, P/C=0.70 (bullish sentiment) NO DATA | 5.5 | 1.100 |
| Volume Confirmation | 10% | RVOL=1.7x (strong) MEASURED | 7.0 | 0.700 |
| 4/5 factors have data (80%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.94 → Adjusted: 5.94 | Composite contribution: 5.94 × 0.15 = 0.891 | 0.891 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iv Richness | 35% | 31% MEASURED | 5.8 | 2.040 |
| Iv Vs Hv | 10% | IV/HV=0.79x MEASURED | 2.5 | 0.250 |
| Beta Gap Risk | 10% | 1.13 MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.900 |
| Gap History | 10% | Worst day: -7.5%, >5% drops: 1 MEASURED | 7.0 | 0.700 |
| Capital Outlay | 5% | $37,968 per 100 shares MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.450 |
| Entry Timing | 10% | LEAPS available MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.550 |
| Options Liquidity | 20% | near-term OI 168,568 (deep), LEAPS OI 18,752 (~412d, deep), spread 9% MEASURED | 9.0 | 1.800 |
| IV Source: yFinance 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 6.69 → Adjusted: 6.69 | Composite contribution: 6.69 × 0.30 = 2.007 | 2.007 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward Pe | 30% | 28.1x MEASURED | 4.0 | 1.200 |
| Peg Ratio | 20% | 8.39 MEASURED | 1.0 | 0.200 |
| Ev Ebitda | 20% | 27.6x MEASURED | 3.0 | 0.600 |
| Analyst Upside | 15% | -4.1% to $364 MEASURED | 2.7 | 0.408 |
| Ps Or Pb | 15% | P/S=11.4x (asset-light) MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.825 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 3.23 → Adjusted: 3.23 | Composite contribution: 3.23 × 0.15 = 0.484 | 0.484 | |||
| Pillar | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals (40%) | 7.85 | 40% | 3.140 |
| Technicals (15%) | 5.94 | 15% | 0.891 |
| Fortress Fit (30%) | 6.69 | 30% | 2.007 |
| Valuation (15%) | 3.23 | 15% | 0.484 |
| Composite Score | 6.52 | ||
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 379.68 | yfinance/IBKR |
| Market Cap | $4.59T | yfinance |
| IV (IBKR) | — | IBKR live |
| IV (yfinance) | 31.1% | yfinance options |
| HV 30d | 39.4% | computed |
| Beta | 1.128 | yfinance |
| Revenue Growth | 18.0% | yfinance |
| Gross Margin | 59.7% | yfinance |
| Operating Margin | 31.6% | yfinance |
| FCF | $38.09B | yfinance |
| ROE (ref) | 35.7% | yfinance |
| ROA (ref) | 15.4% | yfinance |
| Total Equity | N/A | yfinance |
| D/E Ratio | 16.13 | yfinance |
| Current Ratio | 2.00 | yfinance |
| EPS Trailing | 13.09 | yfinance |
| EPS Forward | 13.53 | yfinance |
| Earnings Growth | 31.1% | yfinance |
| Fwd P/E | 28.07 | yfinance |
| PEG Ratio | 8.39 | computed |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.58 | yfinance |
| P/S Ratio | 11.40 | yfinance |
| P/B Ratio (ref) | 11.05 | yfinance |
| Analyst Target | $364.00223 | yfinance |
| Near-term ATM OI | 168,568 | ~45d chain |
| LEAPS ATM OI | 18,752 | ~412d chain |
| Near-term Spread % | 8.9% | ~45d chain |
| Has LEAPS | Yes | yfinance |
| Next Earnings | 2026-07-24 | yfinance |
| Worst 1-Day Drop | -7.5% | price history |
| >5% Drop Days | 1 | price history |
| RSI 14 | 82.0 | computed |
| MACD | 14.03 | computed |
| ADX 14 | 35.60 | computed |
| Relative Volume | 1.74 | computed |
| 52W High | $381.0 | yfinance |
| 52W Low | $149.49 | yfinance |
| 1Y Return | +136.8% | yfinance |
The CAUTIOUS YES verdict (conviction 5/10) reflects a fundamentally strong company trading at stretched valuations with mixed technical signals. GOOG's fundamentals pillar scored 7.8/10, driven by exceptional operational metrics including 18% revenue growth, 59.7% gross margins, and stellar debt health (net cash position with -0.3x ND/EBITDA). The company's ROIC proxy of 15.4% ROA demonstrates efficient capital allocation, though FCF yield remains modest at 0.8%. However, the investment case is significantly constrained by valuation concerns, with the valuation pillar scoring just 3.2/10 due to a forward P/E of 28.1x and analyst targets implying -4.1% downside to 364. The Fortress Fit score of 6.7/10 provides moderate support for the structure, with strong options liquidity (168K near-term OI, 18K LEAPS OI) and reasonable capital requirements of $37,968 per 100 shares. However, the IV environment is suboptimal, with 31% IV trading below 30-day HV of 39.4% (IV/HV ratio of 0.79x), limiting premium collection potential. The beta of 1.13 offers reasonable gap protection without excessive market sensitivity.
GOOG exhibits strong trending behavior with ADX at 36 and price above both 50-day and 200-day moving averages in a golden cross formation. Momentum remains robust with MACD above signal and 28.7% rate of change, though the trend is clearly stretched. The critical concern is extreme overbought conditions with RSI at 82 and Bollinger Band positioning at 114%, indicating price has extended well beyond normal ranges. Volume confirmation at 1.7x relative volume supports the move but doesn't alleviate overextension concerns. Support levels sit at 319, 309, and 296, representing potential 16-24% drawdowns from current levels. With no meaningful resistance above and the stock near 52-week highs, technical risk-reward appears unfavorable for new positions.
| Scenario | Price Target | Timeline | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $295 | 6-12 | Valuation multiple compression amid AI investment concerns drives price to key technical support, representing fair value at lower P/E ratios. |
| Base | $350 | 12-18 | Modest pullback followed by fundamental growth supporting gradual appreciation, though below current analyst consensus targets. |
| Bull | $420 | 18-24 | AI monetization accelerates beyond expectations while search dominance remains intact, justifying premium valuations through earnings growth. |
The primary risk is valuation compression, with GOOG trading at 28x forward earnings despite decelerating growth expectations (forward EPS growth of only 3%). The company sits at extremely overbought technical levels, suggesting vulnerability to any disappointment in AI progress or advertising market softness. Additionally, regulatory overhang remains persistent, with antitrust actions potentially affecting core search and advertising businesses. From a Fortress perspective, the compressed IV environment (IV/HV of 0.79x) limits income generation potential, while the stretched entry point increases the probability of assignment on cash-secured puts. The 1.13 beta also means the position will participate fully in any broader market correction.
The Fortress Fit score of 6.7/10 reflects mixed conditions for the structure. Positives include excellent options liquidity across both near-term and LEAPS contracts, reasonable capital requirements, and manageable beta exposure. The gap risk profile appears contained with worst single-day drop of -7.5% and only one >5% decline recently. However, the IV environment is suboptimal for premium collection, with current IV at 31% trading below recent HV of 39.4%. This compressed volatility reduces the income generation potential that makes Fortress structures attractive.
Disclaimer: This report is auto-generated for informational purposes only. Verdicts and conviction scores are computed by a deterministic quantitative scoring engine (4-pillar model with hard gates). Narrative sections are generated by Anthropic Claude and may contain errors. Fundamental data from Yahoo Finance. IV data from IBKR (where available) or Yahoo Finance options. All data subject to delays. Options trading involves substantial risk. Always do your own due diligence.