Quantitative Scoring Engine v5.1 — 1 Ticker
| Ticker | Price | Verdict | Conviction | Score | Base Target | Upside | Fortress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $175.75 | YES | 7/10 | 7.2 | $220 | +25% | Decent |
Overall: ALL PASSED
| Gate | Detail |
|---|---|
| ✓ G1 Price Data | $175.75 |
| ✓ G2 Market Cap | Market Cap: $4.27T |
| ✓ G3 Price History | 251 trading days (min: 100) |
| ✓ G4 Options | Options available (24 expirations) |
| ✓ G5 Delisting | No delisting signals |
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 25% | 73.2% MEASURED | 10.0 | 2.500 |
| Gross Margin | 15% | 71.1% [+14.5pp YoY] MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.500 |
| Operating Margin | 15% | 65.0% [+15.9pp YoY] MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.500 |
| Fcf Yield | 10% | 1.4% (growth adj) MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.554 |
| Roic | 15% | ROA=51.2% (ROIC fallback) MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.500 |
| Debt Health | 10% | ND/EBITDA=-0.4x, ICR=558.1x, CR=3.90 MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.000 |
| Earnings Trajectory | 10% | EPS(T)=4.90, EPS(F)=11.12, Fwd=+127% MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.900 |
| 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 9.45 → Adjusted: 9.45 | Composite contribution: 9.45 × 0.40 = 3.780 | 3.780 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Alignment | 25% | below 50-DMA, below 200-DMA, golden cross, ADX=22 (trending) MEASURED | 4.0 | 1.000 |
| Mean Reversion | 25% | RSI=47 (neutral), %B=40 (mid-band) MEASURED | 5.5 | 1.375 |
| Momentum | 20% | MACD below signal, histogram negative, ROC=-4.0% (flat/down) MEASURED | 3.6 | 0.720 |
| Positioning Sentiment | 20% | SI=1.0% (low), P/C=N/A NO DATA | 4.0 | 0.800 |
| Volume Confirmation | 10% | RVOL=0.9x MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.500 |
| 4/5 factors have data (80%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 4.39 → Adjusted: 4.39 | Composite contribution: 4.39 × 0.15 = 0.658 | 0.658 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iv Richness | 35% | ~38% (HV, capped) MEASURED | 5.0 | 1.750 |
| Iv Vs Hv | 10% | N/A NO DATA | 4.0 | 0.400 |
| Beta Gap Risk | 10% | 2.38 MEASURED | 8.0 | 0.800 |
| Gap History | 10% | Worst day: -7.8%, >5% drops: 5 MEASURED | 6.0 | 0.600 |
| Capital Outlay | 5% | $17,575 per 100 shares MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.450 |
| Entry Timing | 10% | LEAPS available MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.550 |
| Options Liquidity | 20% | near-term OI: no data, LEAPS OI: no data NO DATA | 5.0 | 1.000 |
| IV Source: HV Fallback (capped at 5.0) 6/7 factors have data (86%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.55 → Adjusted: 5.55 | Composite contribution: 5.55 × 0.30 = 1.665 | 1.665 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward Pe | 30% | 15.8x MEASURED | 7.0 | 2.100 |
| Peg Ratio | 20% | 0.12 MEASURED | 10.0 | 2.000 |
| Ev Ebitda | 20% | 31.7x MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.800 |
| Analyst Upside | 15% | +52.6% to $268 MEASURED | 7.5 | 1.125 |
| Ps Or Pb | 15% | P/S=19.8x (asset-light) MEASURED | 6.5 | 0.975 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 7.00 → Adjusted: 7.00 | Composite contribution: 7.00 × 0.15 = 1.050 | 1.050 | |||
| Pillar | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals (40%) | 9.45 | 40% | 3.780 |
| Technicals (15%) | 4.39 | 15% | 0.658 |
| Fortress Fit (30%) | 5.55 | 30% | 1.665 |
| Valuation (15%) | 7.00 | 15% | 1.050 |
| Composite Score | 7.15 | ||
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 175.75 | yfinance/IBKR |
| Market Cap | $4.27T | yfinance |
| IV (IBKR) | — | IBKR live |
| IV (yfinance) | — | yfinance options |
| HV 30d | 38.1% | computed |
| Beta | 2.375 | yfinance |
| Revenue Growth | 73.2% | yfinance |
| Gross Margin | 71.1% | yfinance |
| Operating Margin | 65.0% | yfinance |
| FCF | $58.13B | yfinance |
| ROE (ref) | 101.5% | yfinance |
| ROA (ref) | 51.2% | yfinance |
| Total Equity | N/A | yfinance |
| D/E Ratio | 7.25 | yfinance |
| Current Ratio | 3.90 | yfinance |
| EPS Trailing | 4.90 | yfinance |
| EPS Forward | 11.12 | yfinance |
| Earnings Growth | 95.6% | yfinance |
| Fwd P/E | 15.81 | yfinance |
| PEG Ratio | 0.12 | computed |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.67 | yfinance |
| P/S Ratio | 19.78 | yfinance |
| P/B Ratio (ref) | 27.16 | yfinance |
| Analyst Target | $268.22195 | yfinance |
| Near-term ATM OI | — (closed/no chain) | ~45d chain |
| LEAPS ATM OI | — (closed/no LEAPS) | ~?d chain |
| Near-term Spread % | — | ~45d chain |
| Has LEAPS | Yes | yfinance |
| Next Earnings | 2026-05-21 | yfinance |
| Worst 1-Day Drop | -7.8% | price history |
| >5% Drop Days | 5 | price history |
| RSI 14 | 47.3 | computed |
| MACD | -3.37 | computed |
| ADX 14 | 22.00 | computed |
| Relative Volume | 0.92 | computed |
| 52W High | $212.19 | yfinance |
| 52W Low | $86.62 | yfinance |
| 1Y Return | +59.2% | yfinance |
| ⚠ yfinance IV 0.0% failed sanity check | ||
NVDA earns a YES verdict with 7/10 conviction, driven primarily by exceptional fundamentals (9.4/10) that overshadow weaker technical and fortress metrics. The company's AI-driven growth story remains intact with 73% revenue growth, expanding gross margins to 71% (up 14.5pp YoY), and explosive earnings trajectory showing 127% forward EPS growth. The valuation pillar (7.0/10) supports the thesis with a compelling 0.12 PEG ratio and analyst targets at 268 implying 53% upside. However, technical headwinds (4.4/10) and modest fortress fit (5.5/10) prevent higher conviction. The scoring engine weighs NVDA's fundamental dominance heavily, recognizing that AI infrastructure demand continues to justify premium valuations despite the stock trading below both 50-day and 200-day moving averages. With a forward P/E of just 15.8x against explosive growth rates, the quantitative model sees compelling risk-adjusted returns over the 1-2 year horizon, even accounting for high beta exposure and technical weakness.
NVDA sits in technical purgatory, trading below key moving averages with negative MACD momentum and 22 ADX indicating trending but downward conditions. The stock faces immediate resistance at 180 with stronger levels at 191 and the 52-week high at 212. Support emerges at 170, then 164, with a more significant floor at 141. RSI at 47 suggests neutral positioning without oversold bounce potential. Despite the golden cross signal, current price action shows bears maintaining control. Volume confirmation remains muted at 0.9x relative volume, suggesting lack of conviction in either direction.
| Scenario | Price Target | Timeline | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $140 | 6-12 | AI capex cycle peaks earlier than expected, China tensions escalate, or hyperscaler customers pause infrastructure spending amid macro uncertainty. |
| Base | $220 | 12-18 | Steady AI adoption continues driving data center demand while automotive and edge AI markets develop as expected, supporting current growth trajectory. |
| Bull | $280 | 18-24 | AI infrastructure becomes critical utility driving sustained hyperscaler spending, while new verticals like robotics and autonomous vehicles accelerate adoption beyond current forecasts. |
High beta exposure (2.38) means NVDA amplifies market volatility, particularly problematic during risk-off periods. Regulatory overhang from China export restrictions could limit addressable market. Single-point-of-failure risk exists if AI spending normalizes or shifts to alternative architectures. Gap risk is material with 5 drops exceeding 5% and worst single-day decline of 7.8%. Valuation remains stretched on traditional metrics with EV/EBITDA at 31.7x, making the stock vulnerable to multiple compression if growth disappoints or rates rise sharply. Competitive threats from AMD, custom chips, and emerging architectures could erode pricing power over time.
The 5.5/10 Fortress Fit score reflects mixed suitability for income-focused LEAPS strategies. Positives include reasonable capital outlay at 17,575 per 100 shares and high beta providing good premium collection potential. However, IV data quality shows 'hv_fallback' indicating significant data limitations for precise volatility assessment. Options liquidity data could not be assessed, creating uncertainty around execution quality for complex structures. The moderate gap history and high volatility profile require careful strike selection and position sizing.
Disclaimer: This report is auto-generated for informational purposes only. Verdicts and conviction scores are computed by a deterministic quantitative scoring engine (4-pillar model with hard gates). Narrative sections are generated by Anthropic Claude and may contain errors. Fundamental data from Yahoo Finance. IV data from IBKR (where available) or Yahoo Finance options. All data subject to delays. Options trading involves substantial risk. Always do your own due diligence.