Quantitative Scoring Engine v5.1 — 1 Ticker
| Ticker | Price | Verdict | Conviction | Score | Base Target | Upside | Fortress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $225.01 | CAUTIOUS YES | 5/10 | 6.9 | $270 | +20% | Decent |
Overall: ALL PASSED
| Gate | Detail |
|---|---|
| ✓ G1 Price Data | $225.01 |
| ✓ G2 Market Cap | Market Cap: $5.45T |
| ✓ G3 Price History | 251 trading days (min: 100) |
| ✓ G4 Options | Options available (21 expirations) |
| ✓ G5 Delisting | No delisting signals |
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 25% | 85.2% [consistent] MEASURED | 10.0 | 2.500 |
| Gross Margin | 15% | 74.1% [+2.5pp YoY] MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.500 |
| Operating Margin | 15% | 65.6% [+4.8pp YoY] MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.500 |
| Fcf Yield | 10% | 0.9% (growth adj) MEASURED | 4.8 | 0.478 |
| Roic | 15% | ROA=52.7% (ROIC fallback) MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.500 |
| Debt Health | 10% | ND/EBITDA=-0.2x, ICR=647.6x, CR=3.44 MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.000 |
| Earnings Trajectory | 10% | EPS(T)=6.53, EPS(F)=12.80, Fwd=+96% MEASURED | 8.0 | 0.800 |
| 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 9.28 → Adjusted: 9.28 | Composite contribution: 9.28 × 0.40 = 3.712 | 3.712 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Alignment | 25% | below 50-DMA, below 200-DMA, death cross, ADX=nan MEASURED | 1.5 | 0.375 |
| Mean Reversion | 25% | RSI=63 (warming up) MEASURED | 4.5 | 1.125 |
| Momentum | 20% | MACD above signal, histogram positive, ROC=nan% (strong down) MEASURED | 5.4 | 1.080 |
| Positioning Sentiment | 20% | SI=1.3% (low), P/C=N/A NO DATA | 4.0 | 0.800 |
| Volume Confirmation | 10% | RVOL=0.7x MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.500 |
| 4/5 factors have data (80%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 3.88 → Adjusted: 3.88 | Composite contribution: 3.88 × 0.15 = 0.582 | 0.582 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iv Richness | 35% | ~39% (HV, capped) MEASURED | 5.0 | 1.750 |
| Iv Vs Hv | 10% | N/A NO DATA | 4.0 | 0.400 |
| Beta Gap Risk | 10% | 2.21 MEASURED | 8.0 | 0.800 |
| Gap History | 10% | Worst day: -6.2%, >5% drops: 2 MEASURED | 7.0 | 0.700 |
| Capital Outlay | 5% | $22,501 per 100 shares MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.450 |
| Entry Timing | 10% | LEAPS available, earnings in 8d (IV elevated) MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.500 |
| Options Liquidity | 20% | near-term OI: no data, LEAPS OI: no data NO DATA | 5.0 | 1.000 |
| IV Source: HV Fallback (capped at 5.0) 6/7 factors have data (86%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.60 → Adjusted: 5.60 | Composite contribution: 5.60 × 0.30 = 1.680 | 1.680 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward Pe | 30% | 17.5x MEASURED | 7.0 | 2.100 |
| Peg Ratio | 20% | 0.62 MEASURED | 8.0 | 1.600 |
| Ev Ebitda | 20% | 32.7x MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.800 |
| Analyst Upside | 15% | +34.6% to $303 MEASURED | 7.5 | 1.125 |
| Ps Or Pb | 15% | P/S=21.5x (asset-light) MEASURED | 4.5 | 0.675 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 6.30 → Adjusted: 6.30 | Composite contribution: 6.30 × 0.15 = 0.945 | 0.945 | |||
| Pillar | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals (40%) | 9.28 | 40% | 3.712 |
| Technicals (15%) | 3.88 | 15% | 0.582 |
| Fortress Fit (30%) | 5.60 | 30% | 1.680 |
| Valuation (15%) | 6.30 | 15% | 0.945 |
| Composite Score | 6.92 | ||
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 225.01 | yfinance/IBKR |
| Market Cap | $5.45T | yfinance |
| IV (IBKR) | — | IBKR live |
| IV (yfinance) | — | yfinance options |
| HV 30d | 39.3% | computed |
| Beta | 2.215 | yfinance |
| Revenue Growth | 85.2% | yfinance |
| Gross Margin | 74.1% | yfinance |
| Operating Margin | 65.6% | yfinance |
| FCF | $46.34B | yfinance |
| ROE (ref) | 114.3% | yfinance |
| ROA (ref) | 52.7% | yfinance |
| Total Equity | N/A | yfinance |
| D/E Ratio | 6.55 | yfinance |
| Current Ratio | 3.44 | yfinance |
| EPS Trailing | 6.53 | yfinance |
| EPS Forward | 12.80 | yfinance |
| Earnings Growth | 214.5% | yfinance |
| Fwd P/E | 17.53 | yfinance |
| PEG Ratio | 0.62 | yfinance |
| EV/EBITDA | 32.66 | yfinance |
| P/S Ratio | 21.50 | yfinance |
| P/B Ratio (ref) | 27.88 | yfinance |
| Analyst Target | $302.82758 | yfinance |
| Near-term ATM OI | — (closed/no chain) | ~45d chain |
| LEAPS ATM OI | — (closed/no LEAPS) | ~?d chain |
| Near-term Spread % | — | ~45d chain |
| Has LEAPS | Yes | yfinance |
| Next Earnings | 2026-08-27 | yfinance |
| Worst 1-Day Drop | -6.2% | price history |
| >5% Drop Days | 2 | price history |
| RSI 14 | 63.0 | computed |
| MACD | 5.28 | computed |
| ADX 14 | N/A | computed |
| Relative Volume | 0.68 | computed |
| 52W High | $236.54 | yfinance |
| 52W Low | $164.07 | yfinance |
| 1Y Return | +nan% | yfinance |
| ⚠ yfinance IV 0.0% failed sanity check | ||
NVIDIA's composite score of 6.9 lands it in Cautious Yes territory, driven by a split between exceptional fundamentals and weaker technical and fortress readings. The Fundamentals pillar scores 9.3, near perfect, on the back of 85.2% revenue growth, 74.1% gross margin (+2.5pp YoY), 65.6% operating margin (+4.8pp YoY), pristine balance sheet health (ND/EBITDA of -0.2x, interest coverage of 647.6x), and forward EPS growth of 96%. This is one of the strongest fundamental profiles you will find in mega cap tech. Valuation at 6.3 is reasonable rather than cheap, forward P/E of 17.5x and a PEG of 0.62 look attractive given the growth rate, but EV/EBITDA of 32.7x and P/S of 21.5x show the market has already priced in a lot of the growth story. The drag comes from Technicals (3.9) and Fortress Fit (5.6). Technicals are weak because price sits below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with a death cross formed, trend alignment scores just 1.5. Momentum and mean reversion are middling (RSI 63, MACD positive but ROC data unreliable). Fortress Fit at 5.6 is held down by unmeasured IV-vs-HV context (defaulted, not a negative signal) and mediocre entry timing given earnings in 8 days with elevated IV. Per the hard override rule, Fortress Fit under a stronger threshold caps the verdict at Cautious Yes and conviction at 5, which is exactly what happened here despite the fundamentals being nearly best-in-class. Bottom line: this is a fundamentally excellent company trading into a technically messy and event-risk-laden setup. The scoring reflects a real tension: you want to own NVDA for the long term, but the near-term technical picture and impending earnings volatility argue against rushing into a large structure right now.
Price is at $225.01, comfortably within the 52-week range of $164.07 to $236.54 but has broken below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a death cross confirmed, this is the primary reason the Technicals pillar sits at just 3.9/10. RSI of 63 suggests the stock is warming up rather than oversold or overbought, and MACD is positive with a positive histogram, hinting at emerging short-term momentum, but ADX and ROC data were unavailable (nan), reducing confidence in trend strength readings. No clean support or resistance levels were identified in the data. The positioning signal reads Leaning Stretched, and combined with earnings in 8 days and elevated IV, this is not an ideal moment to initiate a large LEAPS structure. Volume confirmation is unremarkable (RVOL 0.7x, below average), suggesting the current price action lacks strong conviction from participants either direction. Waiting for post-earnings clarity or a better technical setup (reclaiming the 50-DMA) would improve entry quality.
| Scenario | Price Target | Timeline | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $165 | 12-18 months | A guidance disappointment or margin compression from competitive pressure (custom silicon, AI capex slowdown) could see the stock retest the low end of its 52-week range. |
| Base | $270 | 12-18 months | Continued execution on datacenter and AI demand supports EPS growth toward the $12.80 forward estimate, with multiple expansion modest given already-rich EV/EBITDA. |
| Bull | $320 | 18-24 months | Sustained hyperscaler capex, new product cycles (Blackwell successors), and margin durability push the stock past the current analyst average target of $302.83. |
The biggest near-term risk is the earnings event in 8 days combined with an already technically weak chart, a death cross plus a miss or soft guidance could trigger a sharp drawdown given the stock's high beta of 2.215 and history of gap moves (worst single day was -6.2%). Valuation, while not extreme, leaves little room for error at 32.7x EV/EBITDA and 21.5x P/S. Structurally, NVDA's fundamentals depend heavily on continued AI capex from a concentrated set of hyperscaler customers, any slowdown or diversification away from NVIDIA's silicon (custom ASICs from Google, Amazon, Meta) represents a longer-term competitive risk not fully captured in the backward-looking margin and growth numbers.
Fortress Fit scores 5.6/10, a middling result driven by strong capital efficiency (capital outlay scores 9.0, cost is high in absolute dollars per 100 shares but efficient relative to price) and gap history (7.0) offset by weak entry timing (5.0, earnings in 8 days with elevated IV) and two factors that defaulted due to missing data: IV-vs-HV (4.0) and options liquidity (5.0), both of which could not be properly assessed rather than being measured as poor. Note that IV data quality is flagged as hv_fallback, meaning implied volatility figures are being approximated from historical volatility rather than live options market data, this is a meaningful data limitation that reduces confidence in the fortress structure pricing and should be independently verified against live option chains before sizing a position. Beta gap risk (8.0) reflects NVDA's high beta of 2.21, which cuts both ways for LEAPS structures, elevated premium income potential but also elevated tail risk around earnings.
Disclaimer: This report is auto-generated for informational purposes only. Verdicts and conviction scores are computed by a deterministic quantitative scoring engine (4-pillar model with hard gates). Narrative sections are generated by Anthropic Claude and may contain errors. Fundamental data from Yahoo Finance. IV data from IBKR (where available) or Yahoo Finance options. All data subject to delays. Options trading involves substantial risk. Always do your own due diligence.