Quantitative Scoring Engine v5.1 — 1 Ticker
| Ticker | Price | Verdict | Conviction | Score | Base Target | Upside | Fortress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $233.95 | YES | 8/10 | 7.9 | $275 | +18% | Good |
Overall: ALL PASSED
| Gate | Detail |
|---|---|
| ✓ G1 Price Data | $233.95 |
| ✓ G2 Market Cap | Market Cap: $5.65T |
| ✓ G3 Price History | 251 trading days (min: 100) |
| ✓ G4 Options | Options available (20 expirations) |
| ✓ G5 Delisting | No delisting signals |
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 25% | 105.9% [consistent] MEASURED | 10.0 | 2.500 |
| Gross Margin | 15% | 74.7% [+1.6pp YoY] vs Technology 15/45/75 MEASURED | 9.9 | 1.492 |
| Operating Margin | 15% | 66.2% [+3.1pp YoY] MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.500 |
| Fcf Yield | 10% | 0.7% (growth adj) MEASURED | 4.6 | 0.461 |
| Roic | 15% | ROA=53.6% (ROIC fallback) MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.500 |
| Debt Health | 10% | ND/EBITDA=-0.1x, ICR=505.2x, CR=4.59 MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.000 |
| Earnings Trajectory | 10% | EPS(T)=7.91, EPS(F)=15.70, Fwd=+98% MEASURED | 8.0 | 0.800 |
| 7/7 applicable factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 9.25 → Adjusted: 9.25 | Composite contribution: 9.25 × 0.40 = 3.700 | 3.700 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Alignment | 25% | above 50-DMA, above 200-DMA, golden cross, ADX=16 MEASURED | 8.5 | 2.125 |
| Mean Reversion | 25% | RSI=63 (warming up), %B=91 (near upper band) MEASURED | 2.5 | 0.625 |
| Momentum | 20% | MACD above signal, histogram positive, ROC=2.5% (flat/up) MEASURED | 7.0 | 1.400 |
| Positioning Sentiment | 20% | SI=1.3% (low), P/C=0.63 (bullish sentiment) MEASURED | 4.6 | 0.920 |
| Volume Confirmation | 10% | RVOL=1.2x (normal) MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.550 |
| 5/5 applicable factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.62 → Adjusted: 5.62 | Composite contribution: 5.62 × 0.15 = 0.843 | 0.843 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iv Richness | 35% | 37% MEASURED | 7.4 | 2.583 |
| Iv Vs Hv | 10% | IV/HV=0.96x MEASURED | 4.5 | 0.450 |
| Beta Gap Risk | 10% | 2.22 MEASURED | 8.0 | 0.800 |
| Gap History | 10% | Worst day: -6.2%, >5% drops: 2 MEASURED | 7.0 | 0.700 |
| Capital Outlay | 5% | $23,395 per 100 shares MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.450 |
| Entry Timing | 10% | LEAPS available MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.550 |
| Options Liquidity | 20% | near-term OI 656,049 (deep), LEAPS OI 207,975 (~438d, deep), spread 2% (tight) MEASURED | 9.5 | 1.900 |
| IV Source: yFinance 7/7 applicable factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 7.43 → Adjusted: 7.43 | Composite contribution: 7.43 × 0.30 = 2.229 | 2.229 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward Pe | 30% | 14.9x MEASURED | 9.0 | 2.700 |
| Peg Ratio | 20% | 0.29 MEASURED | 10.0 | 2.000 |
| Ev Ebitda | 20% | 27.9x MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.800 |
| Analyst Upside | 15% | +40.1% to $328 MEASURED | 7.5 | 1.125 |
| Ps Or Pb | 15% | P/S=18.6x (asset-light) MEASURED | 6.5 | 0.975 |
| 5/5 applicable factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 7.60 → Adjusted: 7.60 | Composite contribution: 7.60 × 0.15 = 1.140 | 1.140 | |||
| Pillar | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals (40%) | 9.25 | 40% | 3.700 |
| Technicals (15%) | 5.62 | 15% | 0.843 |
| Fortress Fit (30%) | 7.43 | 30% | 2.229 |
| Valuation (15%) | 7.60 | 15% | 1.140 |
| Composite Score | 7.91 | ||
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 233.95 | yfinance/IBKR |
| Market Cap | $5.65T | yfinance |
| IV (IBKR) | — | IBKR live |
| IV (yfinance) | 36.9% | yfinance options |
| HV 30d | 38.5% | computed |
| Beta | 2.217 | yfinance |
| Revenue Growth | 105.9% | yfinance |
| Gross Margin | 74.7% | yfinance |
| Operating Margin | 66.2% | yfinance |
| FCF | $41.81B | yfinance |
| ROE (ref) | 117.2% | yfinance |
| ROA (ref) | 53.6% | yfinance |
| Total Equity | N/A | yfinance |
| D/E Ratio | 16.97 | yfinance |
| Current Ratio | 4.59 | yfinance |
| EPS Trailing | 7.91 | yfinance |
| EPS Forward | 15.70 | yfinance |
| Earnings Growth | 127.8% | yfinance |
| Fwd P/E | 14.91 | yfinance |
| PEG Ratio | 0.29 | yfinance |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.90 | yfinance |
| P/S Ratio | 18.65 | yfinance |
| P/B Ratio (ref) | 24.67 | yfinance |
| Analyst Target | $327.7 | yfinance |
| Near-term ATM OI | 656,049 | ~45d chain |
| LEAPS ATM OI | 207,975 | ~438d chain |
| Near-term Spread % | 2.0% | ~45d chain |
| Has LEAPS | Yes | yfinance |
| Next Earnings | 2026-11-18 | yfinance |
| Worst 1-Day Drop | -6.2% | price history |
| >5% Drop Days | 2 | price history |
| RSI 14 | 63.0 | computed |
| MACD | 3.54 | computed |
| ADX 14 | 16.00 | computed |
| Relative Volume | 1.23 | computed |
| 52W High | $237.88 | yfinance |
| 52W Low | $164.27 | yfinance |
| 1Y Return | +25.0% | yfinance |
The engine returns YES at 8/10 conviction (composite 7.9) and the driver is fundamentals. Fundamentals scores 9.2/10 on 105.9% revenue growth, a 74.7% gross margin (up 1.6pp YoY), a 66.2% operating margin (up 3.1pp YoY), net cash with interest coverage above 500x, and a current ratio of 4.59. Those are exceptional numbers for a company of this size. The earnings trajectory component is the one to watch: trailing EPS is 7.91 against forward EPS of 15.70, an implied +98% jump. That estimate is doing a lot of work, and it is the main reason the score is high rather than maximal. Valuation (7.6) is supportive but not cheap on every lens. Forward P/E of 14.9x and a PEG of 0.29 look very attractive, and the Street target of $327.7 implies roughly 40% upside. EV/EBITDA of 27.9x and P/S of 18.6x are much less compelling, and the trailing P/E of 29.6x is only reasonable if the forward earnings ramp actually arrives. The engine is effectively betting that forward numbers are credible. Fortress Fit (7.4) clears the 4.0 override threshold comfortably, so no cap applies. Options liquidity is the strongest sub-factor (near-term OI of 656,049, LEAPS OI of 207,975, 2% spread), and beta gap risk (2.22) and capital outlay ($23,395 per 100 shares) are the main drags. Technicals are the weakest pillar at 5.6 and carry only 15% weight, so they lower the composite a little without changing the verdict.
Price at $233.95 sits just under the 52-week high of $237.88 and well above the 50-day and 200-day averages, with a golden cross in place and MACD above its signal line with a positive histogram. Trend alignment (8.5) and momentum (7.0) are solid. The issue is extension. RSI is 63, which is warming but not overbought, while %B at 91 means price is pressed against the upper Bollinger band. Mean reversion scores just 2.5, which is the lowest technical sub-factor and the clearest signal that the stock is stretched short term. ADX of 16 says the trend itself is weak, so this is a drift higher rather than a powerful directional move. Volume is normal (RVOL 1.2x), which is not a strong confirmation. Positioning is moderately stretched up (score 4). Short interest is low at 1.3%, and the put/call ratio of 0.63 shows bullish sentiment. Those readings support the trend but also suggest that good news is already priced in. Nearby support sits at $208.08, then $197.05 and $189.69, and there is no overhead resistance identified. For a LEAPS entry, the better setup is probably a pullback toward the $208 area, where the trend is still intact and the stock is no longer pressed against its upper band. Entering at current levels is acceptable for a long-dated position, but it is not the cleanest timing.
| Scenario | Price Target | Timeline | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $180 | 12 | If the AI capex cycle slows or the forward EPS ramp (EPS(F) of 15.70) is cut sharply, the multiple would compress toward the low end of the 52-week range and test the $189.69 support. A 180 level would reflect both lower earnings and a derating from the current 14.9x forward multiple. |
| Base | $275 | 15 | Base case assumes the forward earnings trajectory is broadly delivered and the stock re-rates modestly while still trading below the Street target. That implies roughly 18% upside from current levels, with some drawdowns along the way given the 2.2 beta. |
| Bull | $330 | 20 | Bull case assumes estimates are beaten and the market keeps paying for growth, pushing the stock to the Street consensus target of roughly 328. That requires sustained AI demand and no major export or competitive disruption. |
The biggest risk is estimate risk. The fundamentals score (9.2) and the low forward P/E both rest on EPS rising from 7.91 to 15.70. If that forecast is cut, the forward P/E stops looking cheap and the valuation case weakens quickly. The 105.9% revenue growth rate is also unlikely to persist at that pace, so the market will be watching for deceleration. Concentration in a small set of large hyperscale and AI infrastructure customers means that any slowdown in their capex would hit the top line directly. Price and volatility risk is also significant. Beta is 2.22, and the stock has had at least two daily drops above 5%, with the worst at -6.2%. Realized volatility (HV30 of 38.5%) is nearly as high as implied volatility (36.9%), so the options market is not pricing a large premium for event risk. Geopolitical and export control risk, including restrictions on China sales, can produce sudden gaps that the model captures only through beta and gap history. Competition from custom AI accelerators built by major customers is a structural risk the numbers do not show directly.
Fortress Fit scores 7.4, above the 4.0 override threshold, so the verdict stands without a cap. The strongest component is options liquidity (9.5), with deep near-term and LEAPS open interest and a tight 2% spread, which makes entry and exit practical for a LEAPS structure. Capital outlay scores 9.0, though at about $23,395 per 100 shares it is a large commitment for a Fortress position and sizing should reflect that. IV richness scores 7.4 with IV at 36.9%, but IV/HV is 0.96x, meaning options are not pricing a large premium over realized movement, which limits the income edge from selling against the position. Beta gap risk (8.0 at 2.22) and gap history (7.0) are acceptable but not comfortable for a deep-in-the-money structure, so any income overlay should assume large moves can occur. Entry timing scores 5.5 because LEAPS are available but the stock is extended, so waiting for a pullback toward $208 would improve the structure. Implied volatility data came from yfinance, not a secondary source, so treat the IV reading as a reasonable but not verified input. Overall this is a good fit for a long-dated, liquid, high-quality name, with sizing and entry discipline doing most of the risk management.
Disclaimer: This report is auto-generated for informational purposes only. Verdicts and conviction scores are computed by a deterministic quantitative scoring engine (4-pillar model with hard gates). Narrative sections are generated by Anthropic Claude and may contain errors. Fundamental data from Yahoo Finance. IV data from IBKR (where available) or Yahoo Finance options. All data subject to delays. Options trading involves substantial risk. Always do your own due diligence.