Quantitative Scoring Engine v5.1 — 1 Ticker
| Ticker | Price | Verdict | Conviction | Score | Base Target | Upside | Fortress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCOM | $230.22 | CAUTIOUS YES | 5/10 | 6.5 | $245 | +6% | Good |
Overall: ALL PASSED
| Gate | Detail |
|---|---|
| ✓ G1 Price Data | $230.22 |
| ✓ G2 Market Cap | Market Cap: $242.66B |
| ✓ G3 Price History | 252 trading days (min: 100) |
| ✓ G4 Options | Options available (16 expirations) |
| ✓ G5 Delisting | No delisting signals |
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 25% | -3.5% MEASURED | 2.2 | 0.542 |
| Gross Margin | 15% | 54.8% [-1.8pp YoY] MEASURED | 6.6 | 0.995 |
| Operating Margin | 15% | 22.1% [-4.9pp YoY] MEASURED | 6.4 | 0.962 |
| Fcf Yield | 10% | 4.0% MEASURED | 6.0 | 0.595 |
| Roic | 15% | ROA=12.7% (ROIC fallback) MEASURED | 9.1 | 1.362 |
| Debt Health | 10% | ND/EBITDA=0.4x, ICR=20.6x, CR=2.37 MEASURED | 9.2 | 0.922 |
| Earnings Trajectory | 10% | EPS(T)=9.31, EPS(F)=10.64, Fwd=+14% MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.550 |
| 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.93 → Adjusted: 5.93 | Composite contribution: 5.93 × 0.40 = 2.372 | 2.372 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Alignment | 25% | above 50-DMA, above 200-DMA, golden cross, ADX=41 (strong trend) MEASURED | 10.0 | 2.500 |
| Mean Reversion | 25% | RSI=64 (warming up), %B=78 (above mid-band) MEASURED | 3.5 | 0.875 |
| Momentum | 20% | MACD above signal, histogram positive, ROC=53.5% (strong up) MEASURED | 8.2 | 1.640 |
| Positioning Sentiment | 20% | SI=5.3% (elevated), P/C=0.56 (bullish sentiment) MEASURED | 6.7 | 1.340 |
| Volume Confirmation | 10% | RVOL=0.5x MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.500 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 6.86 → Adjusted: 6.86 | Composite contribution: 6.86 × 0.15 = 1.029 | 1.029 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iv Richness | 35% | 82% MEASURED | 10.0 | 3.500 |
| Iv Vs Hv | 10% | IV/HV=0.89x MEASURED | 2.5 | 0.250 |
| Beta Gap Risk | 10% | 1.49 MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.900 |
| Gap History | 10% | Worst day: -11.5%, >5% drops: 6 MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.400 |
| Capital Outlay | 5% | $23,022 per 100 shares MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.450 |
| Entry Timing | 10% | LEAPS available MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.550 |
| Options Liquidity | 20% | near-term OI 59,759 (deep), LEAPS OI 9,699 (~385d, good), spread 3% (tight) MEASURED | 9.0 | 1.800 |
| IV Source: IBKR Live 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 7.85 → Adjusted: 7.85 | Composite contribution: 7.85 × 0.30 = 2.355 | 2.355 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward Pe | 30% | 21.6x MEASURED | 6.0 | 1.800 |
| Peg Ratio | 20% | 1.06 MEASURED | 6.0 | 1.200 |
| Ev Ebitda | 20% | 20.6x MEASURED | 5.0 | 1.000 |
| Analyst Upside | 15% | -22.8% to $178 MEASURED | 0.0 | 0.000 |
| Ps Or Pb | 15% | P/S=5.5x (asset-light) MEASURED | 7.0 | 1.050 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.05 → Adjusted: 5.05 | Composite contribution: 5.05 × 0.15 = 0.757 | 0.757 | |||
| Pillar | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals (40%) | 5.93 | 40% | 2.372 |
| Technicals (15%) | 6.86 | 15% | 1.029 |
| Fortress Fit (30%) | 7.85 | 30% | 2.355 |
| Valuation (15%) | 5.05 | 15% | 0.757 |
| Composite Score | 6.51 | ||
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 230.22 | yfinance/IBKR |
| Market Cap | $242.66B | yfinance |
| IV (IBKR) | 81.8% | IBKR live |
| IV (yfinance) | 80.9% | yfinance options |
| HV 30d | 92.1% | computed |
| Beta | 1.493 | yfinance |
| Revenue Growth | -3.5% | yfinance |
| Gross Margin | 54.8% | yfinance |
| Operating Margin | 22.1% | yfinance |
| FCF | $9.59B | yfinance |
| ROE (ref) | 36.1% | yfinance |
| ROA (ref) | 12.7% | yfinance |
| Total Equity | N/A | yfinance |
| D/E Ratio | 55.98 | yfinance |
| Current Ratio | 2.37 | yfinance |
| EPS Trailing | 9.31 | yfinance |
| EPS Forward | 10.64 | yfinance |
| Earnings Growth | 173.0% | yfinance |
| Fwd P/E | 21.65 | yfinance |
| PEG Ratio | 1.06 | yfinance |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.60 | yfinance |
| P/S Ratio | 5.45 | yfinance |
| P/B Ratio (ref) | 8.94 | yfinance |
| Analyst Target | $177.8125 | yfinance |
| Near-term ATM OI | 59,759 | ~45d chain |
| LEAPS ATM OI | 9,699 | ~385d chain |
| Near-term Spread % | 3.0% | ~45d chain |
| Has LEAPS | Yes | yfinance |
| Next Earnings | 2026-07-30 | yfinance |
| Worst 1-Day Drop | -11.5% | price history |
| >5% Drop Days | 6 | price history |
| RSI 14 | 64.1 | computed |
| MACD | 20.20 | computed |
| ADX 14 | 40.90 | computed |
| Relative Volume | 0.52 | computed |
| 52W High | $258.0 | yfinance |
| 52W Low | $121.99 | yfinance |
| 1Y Return | +58.5% | yfinance |
QCOM presents a measured opportunity with our scoring engine delivering a CAUTIOUS YES verdict on a 6.5/10 composite score. The modest conviction level (5/10) reflects mixed fundamentals (5.9/10) dragged down by revenue contraction (-3.5%) and margin compression, though the company maintains exceptional balance sheet health (9.2/10 debt score) and solid profitability metrics. The technical picture (6.9/10) shows strong trend alignment with price above both moving averages in a golden cross formation, supported by robust momentum indicators and a 53.5% rate of change, though positioning appears moderately stretched after the stock's 58.5% annual run. The standout element is QCOM's excellent Fortress Fit (7.8/10), driven by rich implied volatility at 82 percentile and deep options liquidity supporting income generation strategies. However, valuation concerns (5.0/10) persist with the stock trading at 21.6x forward earnings while analysts see 23% downside to their 178 target, creating a risk-reward dynamic that justifies the cautious stance despite the company's quality characteristics.
QCOM exhibits strong technical momentum with ADX at 41 signaling a robust trending environment, while MACD remains constructively above its signal line with positive histogram readings. The golden cross formation and position above key moving averages support the bullish structure, though RSI at 64 suggests the stock is warming up toward overbought territory. Key support levels sit at 191 and 170, while immediate resistance emerges near 248. The moderately stretched positioning (score=3) indicates some near-term consolidation risk after the substantial rally, though the underlying trend remains intact. Volume confirmation is neutral at 0.5x relative volume, suggesting neither strong accumulation nor distribution at current levels.
| Scenario | Price Target | Timeline | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $180 | 6-12 | Semiconductor cyclical downturn deepens with smartphone demand remaining weak and China tensions escalating, compressing margins further while multiple contracts toward analyst consensus. |
| Base | $245 | 12-18 | AI infrastructure demand accelerates 5G adoption while automotive design wins materialize, supporting modest earnings growth and sustaining current valuation multiples. |
| Bull | $280 | 18-24 | AI smartphone upgrade cycle drives licensing revenue surge while automotive and IoT segments hit inflection points, expanding margins and justifying premium valuations. |
The primary concern centers on QCOM's exposure to smartphone cyclicality amid weakening consumer demand, particularly in China which represents a significant revenue source. Geopolitical tensions could impact both licensing arrangements and supply chain access, while the company faces ongoing regulatory scrutiny over its licensing practices. The current valuation appears demanding given near-term growth headwinds, with analysts forecasting material downside that could pressure the equity despite strong technical momentum. Additionally, the semiconductor sector faces inventory normalization pressures and potential margin compression as competitive dynamics intensify in key end markets. QCOM's high beta of 1.49 amplifies both upside and downside moves, creating elevated portfolio volatility during uncertain market conditions.
QCOM scores exceptionally well for Fortress strategies with a 7.8/10 Fortress Fit driven by several key advantages. The 82 percentile implied volatility ranking provides rich premium collection opportunities, while deep options liquidity (59,759 near-term open interest, 9,699 LEAPS open interest) ensures efficient execution. The reasonable capital outlay of $23,022 per 100 shares makes position sizing manageable, and tight 3% bid-ask spreads minimize transaction costs. The high beta profile creates attractive volatility for income generation, though gap risk exists with six instances of 5%+ single-day drops historically.
Disclaimer: This report is auto-generated for informational purposes only. Verdicts and conviction scores are computed by a deterministic quantitative scoring engine (4-pillar model with hard gates). Narrative sections are generated by Anthropic Claude and may contain errors. Fundamental data from Yahoo Finance. IV data from IBKR (where available) or Yahoo Finance options. All data subject to delays. Options trading involves substantial risk. Always do your own due diligence.