Stock Research Report — 22 April 2026

Ticker	Price	Verdict	Conviction	Score	Base Target	Upside	Fortress
RKLB	$88.77	NO	4/10	5.4	$75	-16%	Good

RKLB Rocket Lab Corporation Industrials NO — 4/10

Conviction

4/10

Hard Gates

Overall: ALL PASSED

Gate	Detail
✓ G1 Price Data	$88.77
✓ G2 Market Cap	Market Cap: $51.31B
✓ G3 Price History	252 trading days (min: 100)
✓ G4 Options	Options available (12 expirations)
✓ G5 Delisting	No delisting signals

Pillar Scoring

Fundamentals (40%)4.98/10

Factor	Weight	Raw Value	Score (0–10)	Contribution
Revenue Growth	25%	35.7% MEASURED	10.0	2.500
Gross Margin	15%	34.4% [+9.2pp YoY] MEASURED	4.2	0.636
Operating Margin	15%	-28.4% [+19.9pp YoY] MEASURED	2.0	0.300
Fcf Yield	10%	-0.5% (growth adj) MEASURED	2.5	0.246
Roic	15%	ROA=-8.2% (ROIC fallback) MEASURED	0.0	0.000
Debt Health	10%	ND/EBITDA=N/A, ICR=-5.9x, CR=4.08 NO DATA	4.5	0.445
Earnings Trajectory	10%	EPS(T)=-0.37, EPS(F)=0.05 MEASURED	8.5	0.850
6/7 factors have data (86%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 4.98 → Adjusted: 4.98 \| Composite contribution: 4.98 × 0.40 = 1.992				1.992

Technicals (15%)5.75/10

Factor	Weight	Raw Value	Score (0–10)	Contribution
Trend Alignment	25%	above 50-DMA, above 200-DMA, golden cross, ADX=16 MEASURED	8.5	2.125
Mean Reversion	25%	RSI=69 (getting hot), %B=101 (near upper band) MEASURED	1.0	0.250
Momentum	20%	MACD above signal, histogram positive, ROC=30.5% (strong up) MEASURED	8.2	1.640
Positioning Sentiment	20%	SI=4.3% (moderate), P/C=1.00 (neutral) MEASURED	6.2	1.240
Volume Confirmation	10%	RVOL=0.6x MEASURED	5.0	0.500
5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.75 → Adjusted: 5.75 \| Composite contribution: 5.75 × 0.15 = 0.862				0.862

Fortress Fit (30%)7.55/10

Factor	Weight	Raw Value	Score (0–10)	Contribution
Iv Richness	35%	90% MEASURED	10.0	3.500
Iv Vs Hv	10%	IV/HV=0.95x MEASURED	4.5	0.450
Beta Gap Risk	10%	2.21 MEASURED	8.0	0.800
Gap History	10%	Worst day: -12.6%, >5% drops: 30 MEASURED	4.0	0.400
Capital Outlay	5%	$8,877 per 100 shares MEASURED	9.0	0.450
Entry Timing	10%	LEAPS available MEASURED	5.5	0.550
Options Liquidity	20%	near-term OI 3,508 (workable), LEAPS OI 66,568 (~639d, deep), spread 19% (moderate) MEASURED	7.0	1.400
IV Source: IBKR Live 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 7.55 → Adjusted: 7.55 \| Composite contribution: 7.55 × 0.30 = 2.265				2.265

Valuation (15%)1.97/10

Factor	Weight	Raw Value	Score (0–10)	Contribution
Forward Pe	30%	1732.1x MEASURED	1.5	0.450
Peg Ratio	20%	N/A NO DATA	4.0	0.800
Ev Ebitda	20%	N/A NO DATA	3.0	0.600
Analyst Upside	15%	-2.5% to $87 MEASURED	3.1	0.469
Ps Or Pb	15%	P/B=28.02x MEASURED	1.0	0.150
3/5 factors have data (60%) — Coverage penalty: -0.5 Pillar score: Raw: 2.47 → Adjusted: 1.97 (-0.50) \| Composite contribution: 1.97 × 0.15 = 0.295				0.295

Composite Calculation & Verdict

5.4Composite Score

Pillar	Score	Weight	Contribution
Fundamentals (40%)	4.98	40%	1.992
Technicals (15%)	5.75	15%	0.862
Fortress Fit (30%)	7.55	30%	2.265
Valuation (15%)	1.97	15%	0.295
Composite Score			5.42

Raw Data

▶ Raw Data Fetched (click to expand)

Field	Value	Source
Price	88.77	yfinance/IBKR
Market Cap	$51.31B	yfinance
IV (IBKR)	90.3%	IBKR live
IV (yfinance)	95.4%	yfinance options
HV 30d	95.3%	computed
Beta	2.205	yfinance
Revenue Growth	35.7%	yfinance
Gross Margin	34.4%	yfinance
Operating Margin	-28.4%	yfinance
FCF	$-270.7M	yfinance
ROE (ref)	-18.8%	yfinance
ROA (ref)	-8.2%	yfinance
Total Equity	N/A	yfinance
D/E Ratio	15.39	yfinance
Current Ratio	4.08	yfinance
EPS Trailing	-0.37	yfinance
EPS Forward	0.05	yfinance
Earnings Growth	N/A	yfinance
Fwd P/E	1732.10	yfinance
PEG Ratio	N/A	yfinance
EV/EBITDA	-269.59	yfinance
P/S Ratio	85.27	yfinance
P/B Ratio (ref)	28.02	yfinance
Analyst Target	$86.562	yfinance
Near-term ATM OI	3,508	~45d chain
LEAPS ATM OI	66,568	~639d chain
Near-term Spread %	18.7%	~45d chain
Has LEAPS	Yes	yfinance
Next Earnings	2026-05-08	yfinance
Worst 1-Day Drop	-12.6%	price history
>5% Drop Days	30	price history
RSI 14	69.2	computed
MACD	4.13	computed
ADX 14	16.10	computed
Relative Volume	0.63	computed
52W High	$99.58	yfinance
52W Low	$18.55	yfinance
1Y Return	+376.0%	yfinance

▲ STRETCHED UP

STRETCHED UP positioning with score 6 suggests the stock is extended from a momentum perspective, making current levels a challenging entry point for new positions.

90-Day Price

Price

$88.77

Market Cap

$51.3B

P/E (TTM)

N/A

Fwd P/E

1732.10x

Revenue

$601.8M

Rev Growth

35.7%

Gross Margin

34.4%

EPS (TTM)

-0.37

30d IV

90.3% (58th pctl)

IV Source

IBKR Live

HV (30d)

95.3%

Beta

2.21

Worst Day

-12.6%

52W Range

$18.55-$99.58

1Y Return

+376.0%

FCF

$-270.7M

Next Earnings

2026-05-08

Investment Thesis

The quantitative engine produces a NO verdict with 4/10 conviction for RKLB, driven primarily by extreme valuation concerns that overwhelm otherwise decent fundamentals and fortress characteristics. The composite 5.4/10 score reflects a company caught between strong operational momentum and stretched pricing. Fundamentals score a middling 5.0/10 despite impressive 35.7% revenue growth, as the company remains deeply unprofitable with negative operating margins and poor capital efficiency (ROA of -8.2%). The earnings trajectory factor scores well at 8.5/10, suggesting a path toward profitability with forward EPS turning positive at 0.05. However, the valuation pillar scores just 2.0/10, reflecting astronomical forward P/E of 1732x and P/B of 28x, with analyst targets actually below current levels at 87 versus the 88.77 current price. This creates a fundamental disconnect between growth potential and current pricing that the model flags as unsustainable over a 1-2 year horizon.

Technicals

Current Price$88.77

50 DMA70.89 (above)

200 DMA60.49 (above)

RSI (14)69.2 (neutral)

Stochastic RSI98 (overbought)

MACD4.127 (signal: 1.402)

ADX (14)16 (no trend / ranging)

Bollinger (20,2)53.79 / 71.05 / 88.3

BB %B101.4%

Relative Volume0.63x

% From 52W High-10.9%

Support Levels

$66.85

$63.98

$58.41

Resistance Levels

$99.58

RKLB shows strong momentum characteristics with the stock trading above both 50-day and 200-day moving averages in a golden cross formation, contributing to the 8.5/10 trend alignment score. MACD remains bullish with positive histogram and 30.5% rate of change indicating powerful upward momentum (8.2/10 momentum score). However, mean reversion signals flash warning with RSI at 69.2 approaching overbought territory and Bollinger Band position at 101% indicating the stock is trading outside its upper band. The stock has gained 376% over the past year and sits near the top of its 52-week range of 18.55 to 99.58, with immediate resistance at the 99.58 high and support levels stepping down at 66.85, 63.98, and 58.41.

Scenario	Price Target	Timeline	Rationale
Bear	$55	6-12	Valuation compression as growth investors rotate out of expensive names, potentially targeting the 58.41 support level or lower if momentum breaks.
Base	$75	12-18	Gradual multiple compression toward more reasonable levels while maintaining growth trajectory, settling between key technical support zones.
Bull	$110	18-24	Successful transition to profitability with margin expansion justifies premium valuation as space economy thesis plays out with contract wins.

Key Risks

The primary risk is valuation compression from current stretched levels, particularly given the 1732x forward P/E multiple that leaves little room for execution missteps. With 30 days of greater than 5% drops historically and a worst single day of -12.6%, RKLB exhibits significant gap risk that could quickly erode capital. The company's high beta of 2.21 amplifies market volatility, while the transition from loss-making to profitable operations remains uncertain despite positive forward EPS projections. Current RSI levels near 69 and positioning outside Bollinger Bands suggest technical exhaustion that could trigger profit-taking.

Fortress Suitability: Good

Despite valuation concerns, RKLB scores a strong 7.5/10 for Fortress Fit, making it technically suitable for income-focused strategies. The 90% IV richness provides excellent premium collection opportunities, while the 8,877 capital outlay per 100 shares offers reasonable efficiency. LEAPS liquidity appears robust with 66,568 open interest extending roughly 639 days, though near-term options show more modest 3,508 OI with 19% spreads that are workable but not ideal. The high 2.21 beta creates substantial gap risk but also enhances premium collection potential for fortress structures.