Quantitative Scoring Engine v5.1 — 9 Tickers
| Ticker | Price | Verdict | Conviction | Score | Base Target | Upside | Fortress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VST | $158.86 | CAUTIOUS YES | 5/10 | 6.5 | $190 | +20% | Decent |
| TLN | $385.80 | CAUTIOUS YES | 5/10 | 6.1 | $430 | +11% | Decent |
| ENTG | $145.35 | CAUTIOUS YES | 4/10 | 5.6 | $165 | +14% | Decent |
| TER | $359.60 | CAUTIOUS YES | 5/10 | 6.7 | $420 | +17% | Poor |
| TRGP | $273.35 | NO | 3/10 | 4.9 | $288 | +5% | Poor |
| METC | $12.33 | NO | 3/10 | 4.2 | $15 | +22% | Good |
| GS | $1,055.18 | CAUTIOUS YES | 4/10 | 5.8 | $1,050 | -0% | Decent |
| LLY | $1,188.58 | CAUTIOUS YES | 5/10 | 6.4 | $1,290 | +9% | Decent |
| LMT | $523.22 | NO | 4/10 | 5.1 | $575 | +10% | Decent |
Overall: ALL PASSED
| Gate | Detail |
|---|---|
| ✓ G1 Price Data | $158.86 |
| ✓ G2 Market Cap | Market Cap: $53.56B |
| ✓ G3 Price History | 251 trading days (min: 100) |
| ✓ G4 Options | Options available (17 expirations) |
| ✓ G5 Delisting | No delisting signals |
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 25% | 43.4% MEASURED | 10.0 | 2.500 |
| Gross Margin | 15% | 38.6% [+6.4pp YoY] MEASURED | 4.9 | 0.741 |
| Operating Margin | 15% | 26.6% [+12.9pp YoY] MEASURED | 9.3 | 1.397 |
| Fcf Yield | 10% | 0.9% (growth adj) MEASURED | 4.8 | 0.484 |
| Roic | 15% | ROA=6.0% (ROIC fallback) MEASURED | 6.4 | 0.961 |
| Debt Health | 10% | ND/EBITDA=2.9x, ICR=6.8x, CR=0.90 MEASURED | 5.6 | 0.560 |
| Earnings Trajectory | 10% | EPS(T)=5.97, EPS(F)=10.81, Fwd=+81% MEASURED | 8.0 | 0.800 |
| 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 7.44 → Adjusted: 7.44 | Composite contribution: 7.44 × 0.40 = 2.976 | 2.976 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Alignment | 25% | above 50-DMA, below 200-DMA, death cross, ADX=13 (choppy) MEASURED | 3.0 | 0.750 |
| Mean Reversion | 25% | RSI=53 (neutral), %B=53 (mid-band) MEASURED | 5.5 | 1.375 |
| Momentum | 20% | MACD below signal, histogram negative, ROC=14.8% (up) MEASURED | 4.6 | 0.920 |
| Positioning Sentiment | 20% | SI=5.5% (elevated), P/C=N/A NO DATA | 7.5 | 1.500 |
| Volume Confirmation | 10% | RVOL=0.7x MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.500 |
| 4/5 factors have data (80%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.04 → Adjusted: 5.04 | Composite contribution: 5.04 × 0.15 = 0.756 | 0.756 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iv Richness | 35% | ~42% (HV, capped) MEASURED | 5.0 | 1.750 |
| Iv Vs Hv | 10% | N/A NO DATA | 4.0 | 0.400 |
| Beta Gap Risk | 10% | 1.41 MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.900 |
| Gap History | 10% | Worst day: -12.6%, >5% drops: 12 MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.400 |
| Capital Outlay | 5% | $15,886 per 100 shares MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.450 |
| Entry Timing | 10% | LEAPS available MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.550 |
| Options Liquidity | 20% | near-term OI 5 (illiquid), LEAPS OI 1,466 (~431d, workable), spread 10% MEASURED | 3.5 | 0.700 |
| IV Source: HV Fallback (capped at 5.0) 6/7 factors have data (86%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.15 → Adjusted: 5.15 | Composite contribution: 5.15 × 0.30 = 1.545 | 1.545 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward Pe | 30% | 14.7x MEASURED | 9.0 | 2.700 |
| Peg Ratio | 20% | 0.47 MEASURED | 10.0 | 2.000 |
| Ev Ebitda | 20% | 11.1x MEASURED | 8.5 | 1.700 |
| Analyst Upside | 15% | +40.3% to $223 MEASURED | 7.5 | 1.125 |
| Ps Or Pb | 15% | P/B=17.21x MEASURED | 2.0 | 0.300 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 7.83 → Adjusted: 7.83 | Composite contribution: 7.83 × 0.15 = 1.174 | 1.174 | |||
| Pillar | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals (40%) | 7.44 | 40% | 2.976 |
| Technicals (15%) | 5.04 | 15% | 0.756 |
| Fortress Fit (30%) | 5.15 | 30% | 1.545 |
| Valuation (15%) | 7.83 | 15% | 1.174 |
| Composite Score | 6.45 | ||
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 158.86 | yfinance/IBKR |
| Market Cap | $53.56B | yfinance |
| IV (IBKR) | — | IBKR live |
| IV (yfinance) | — | yfinance options |
| HV 30d | 41.8% | computed |
| Beta | 1.409 | yfinance |
| Revenue Growth | 43.4% | yfinance |
| Gross Margin | 38.6% | yfinance |
| Operating Margin | 26.6% | yfinance |
| FCF | $476.9M | yfinance |
| ROE (ref) | 42.9% | yfinance |
| ROA (ref) | 6.0% | yfinance |
| Total Equity | N/A | yfinance |
| D/E Ratio | 355.19 | yfinance |
| Current Ratio | 0.90 | yfinance |
| EPS Trailing | 5.97 | yfinance |
| EPS Forward | 10.81 | yfinance |
| Earnings Growth | N/A | yfinance |
| Fwd P/E | 14.70 | yfinance |
| PEG Ratio | 0.47 | yfinance |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.09 | yfinance |
| P/S Ratio | 2.75 | yfinance |
| P/B Ratio (ref) | 17.21 | yfinance |
| Analyst Target | $222.88889 | yfinance |
| Near-term ATM OI | 5 | ~45d chain |
| LEAPS ATM OI | 1,466 | ~431d chain |
| Near-term Spread % | 10.0% | ~45d chain |
| Has LEAPS | Yes | yfinance |
| Next Earnings | 2026-08-07 | yfinance |
| Worst 1-Day Drop | -12.6% | price history |
| >5% Drop Days | 12 | price history |
| RSI 14 | 52.7 | computed |
| MACD | 0.80 | computed |
| ADX 14 | 13.30 | computed |
| Relative Volume | 0.70 | computed |
| 52W High | $219.82 | yfinance |
| 52W Low | $132.66 | yfinance |
| 1Y Return | -18.8% | yfinance |
| ⚠ yfinance IV 3.1% failed sanity check | ||
The Composite score of 6.5 lands VST in Cautious Yes territory, driven by a strong Fundamentals pillar (7.4/10) and strong Valuation (7.8/10) that get diluted by mediocre Technicals (5.0/10) and, more importantly, a soft Fortress Fit (5.2/10) carrying 30% weight. On fundamentals, revenue growth of 43.4% and operating margin expansion of 12.9pp YoY are genuinely strong, and the forward earnings trajectory (EPS from 5.97 to 10.81, +81%) is the standout factor at 8.0/10. The soft spots are debt health (5.6/10, ND/EBITDA 2.9x with a current ratio of only 0.90) and FCF yield (4.8/10 at just 0.9% growth-adjusted), which keep this from being an elite fundamentals score. Valuation is the second pillar of support: a forward P/E of 14.7x against 43% revenue growth produces a PEG of 0.47 (10.0/10), and EV/EBITDA of 11.1x is reasonable for the sector. The one outlier is P/B at 17.21x (2.0/10), which looks expensive on a book-value basis, likely a function of aggressive buybacks shrinking the equity base rather than genuine overvaluation, but it is worth noting as a valuation blemish the other multiples do not show. The real reason this is Cautious Yes rather than a clean Yes is Fortress Fit at 5.2/10, weighted at 30%. Options liquidity scores just 3.5/10, with illiquid near-term open interest and a wide 10% LEAPS spread, and gap history scores 4.0/10 on a stock that has seen 12 separate 5%+ single-day drops and a worst day of -12.6%. That combination, a high-beta (1.41) merchant power name with a history of violent gaps and a LEAPS market that is workable but not tight, is exactly what caps conviction at 5/10 even though the underlying business is compounding well.
Price sits at 158.86, just above the immediate support cluster at 157.99/153.17/148.64 and well off the 52-week high of 219.82. The technical picture is genuinely mixed: price is above the 50-DMA but below the 200-DMA with a death cross in place, and ADX of 13.3 confirms there is no strong trend either direction right now, just chop. RSI at 52.7 and %B at 53 both sit dead in neutral territory, and MACD is below its signal line with a negative histogram even as the 14.8% ROC shows recent upward momentum. Volume confirmation is soft (RVOL 0.7x), meaning the current bounce lacks strong participation. Elevated short interest (5.5%) with no put/call data available (defaulted, not a negative signal) adds a modest positioning tailwind if squeezed, but this is not corroborated by volume or trend strength. With price hovering right at first support and a death cross overhead, this looks like a name to scale into on weakness toward the 148-153 zone rather than chase here, especially given the choppy ADX reading.
| Scenario | Price Target | Timeline | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $138 | 12-15 months | Power price softness combined with leverage (ND/EBITDA 2.9x, current ratio 0.90) pressures the balance sheet, and the death cross persists as the stock retests the low end of its 52-week range. |
| Base | $190 | 12-18 months | Earnings trajectory plays out roughly as forecast (EPS toward 10.81), the PEG re-rates modestly off its currently cheap 0.47 level, and price grinds back toward the mid-point between current levels and the analyst target. |
| Bull | $223 | 18-24 months | AI-driven power demand and nuclear/gas capacity tightness push the earnings trajectory and margin expansion story further, and consensus analyst target of 222.89 (+40.3% upside, strong buy from 18 analysts) is reached as the stock re-rates on delivered growth. |
The balance sheet carries real risk: a current ratio of 0.90 signals tight near-term liquidity, and ND/EBITDA of 2.9x means rate sensitivity matters if refinancing needs arise. Gap history is the other major concern for a fortress structure, this stock has posted a -12.6% single-day move and 12 separate 5%+ drops, which is the kind of tail risk that can blow through short-option legs in a LEAPS structure. Options liquidity is thin at the near-term (OI of 5) and only workable at the LEAPS tenor (~431 days, OI 1,466, but with a 10% spread), meaning execution costs will bite on entry and exit. IV data quality here is hv_fallback, meaning true implied volatility richness and the IV-vs-HV relationship could not be reliably measured (both defaulted), so any premium-selling assumptions embedded in a Fortress structure should be treated with extra caution until live IV data confirms the setup.
Fortress Fit scores 5.2/10 on 86% factor coverage, with the weakest links being options liquidity (3.5/10, wide LEAPS spreads and illiquid near-term contracts) and gap history (4.0/10, a stock prone to sharp single-day moves). Capital outlay is favorable at 9.0/10 and beta-gap risk scores well at 9.0/10, and LEAPS are available for entry (5.5/10), but the combination of unmeasured IV-vs-HV data, an HV-fallback IV read, and real gap risk means this is a workable but not ideal Fortress candidate. Position sizing should be conservative and strikes should account for the demonstrated capacity for double-digit single-day moves.
Overall: ALL PASSED
| Gate | Detail |
|---|---|
| ✓ G1 Price Data | $385.80 |
| ✓ G2 Market Cap | Market Cap: $18.44B |
| ✓ G3 Price History | 251 trading days (min: 100) |
| ✓ G4 Options | Options available (16 expirations) |
| ✓ G5 Delisting | No delisting signals |
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 25% | 96.7% [volatile] MEASURED | 9.0 | 2.250 |
| Gross Margin | 15% | 40.1% [+18.7pp YoY] MEASURED | 5.2 | 0.779 |
| Operating Margin | 15% | 17.2% [+35.1pp YoY] MEASURED | 7.4 | 1.117 |
| Fcf Yield | 10% | 7.5% (growth adj) MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.000 |
| Roic | 15% | ROA=1.9% (ROIC fallback) MEASURED | 4.2 | 0.625 |
| Debt Health | 10% | ND/EBITDA=7.1x, ICR=2.4x, CR=1.25 MEASURED | 3.1 | 0.310 |
| Earnings Trajectory | 10% | EPS(T)=-0.50, EPS(F)=30.04 MEASURED | 8.5 | 0.850 |
| 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 6.93 → Adjusted: 6.93 | Composite contribution: 6.93 × 0.40 = 2.772 | 2.772 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Alignment | 25% | above 50-DMA, above 200-DMA, golden cross, ADX=15 (choppy) MEASURED | 8.0 | 2.000 |
| Mean Reversion | 25% | RSI=51 (neutral), %B=45 (mid-band) MEASURED | 5.5 | 1.375 |
| Momentum | 20% | MACD below signal, histogram negative, ROC=14.6% (up) MEASURED | 4.6 | 0.920 |
| Positioning Sentiment | 20% | SI=5.9% (elevated), P/C=N/A NO DATA | 7.5 | 1.500 |
| Volume Confirmation | 10% | RVOL=0.5x (weak) MEASURED | 3.0 | 0.300 |
| 4/5 factors have data (80%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 6.09 → Adjusted: 6.09 | Composite contribution: 6.09 × 0.15 = 0.913 | 0.913 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iv Richness | 35% | ~56% (HV, capped) MEASURED | 5.0 | 1.750 |
| Iv Vs Hv | 10% | N/A NO DATA | 4.0 | 0.400 |
| Beta Gap Risk | 10% | 1.62 MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.900 |
| Gap History | 10% | Worst day: -11.3%, >5% drops: 14 MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.400 |
| Capital Outlay | 5% | $38,580 per 100 shares MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.450 |
| Entry Timing | 10% | LEAPS available MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.550 |
| Options Liquidity | 20% | near-term OI: no data, LEAPS OI 419 (~557d, thin), spread 10% NO DATA | 4.0 | 0.800 |
| IV Source: HV Fallback (capped at 5.0) 6/7 factors have data (86%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.25 → Adjusted: 5.25 | Composite contribution: 5.25 × 0.30 = 1.575 | 1.575 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward Pe | 30% | 12.8x MEASURED | 9.0 | 2.700 |
| Peg Ratio | 20% | N/A NO DATA | 4.0 | 0.800 |
| Ev Ebitda | 20% | 35.6x MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.800 |
| Analyst Upside | 15% | +22.7% to $473 MEASURED | 6.8 | 1.015 |
| Ps Or Pb | 15% | P/B=16.32x MEASURED | 2.0 | 0.300 |
| 4/5 factors have data (80%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.61 → Adjusted: 5.61 | Composite contribution: 5.61 × 0.15 = 0.842 | 0.842 | |||
| Pillar | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals (40%) | 6.93 | 40% | 2.772 |
| Technicals (15%) | 6.09 | 15% | 0.913 |
| Fortress Fit (30%) | 5.25 | 30% | 1.575 |
| Valuation (15%) | 5.61 | 15% | 0.842 |
| Composite Score | 6.10 | ||
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 385.8 | yfinance/IBKR |
| Market Cap | $18.44B | yfinance |
| IV (IBKR) | — | IBKR live |
| IV (yfinance) | — | yfinance options |
| HV 30d | 56.4% | computed |
| Beta | 1.619 | yfinance |
| Revenue Growth | 96.7% | yfinance |
| Gross Margin | 40.1% | yfinance |
| Operating Margin | 17.2% | yfinance |
| FCF | $1.39B | yfinance |
| ROE (ref) | -1.9% | yfinance |
| ROA (ref) | 1.9% | yfinance |
| Total Equity | N/A | yfinance |
| D/E Ratio | 635.41 | yfinance |
| Current Ratio | 1.25 | yfinance |
| EPS Trailing | -0.50 | yfinance |
| EPS Forward | 30.04 | yfinance |
| Earnings Growth | N/A | yfinance |
| Fwd P/E | 12.84 | yfinance |
| PEG Ratio | N/A | yfinance |
| EV/EBITDA | 35.63 | yfinance |
| P/S Ratio | 5.70 | yfinance |
| P/B Ratio (ref) | 16.32 | yfinance |
| Analyst Target | $473.2225 | yfinance |
| Near-term ATM OI | — (closed/no chain) | ~45d chain |
| LEAPS ATM OI | 419 | ~557d chain |
| Near-term Spread % | 10.0% | ~45d chain |
| Has LEAPS | Yes | yfinance |
| Next Earnings | 2026-05-06 | yfinance |
| Worst 1-Day Drop | -11.3% | price history |
| >5% Drop Days | 14 | price history |
| RSI 14 | 51.3 | computed |
| MACD | 0.09 | computed |
| ADX 14 | 14.80 | computed |
| Relative Volume | 0.46 | computed |
| 52W High | $451.28 | yfinance |
| 52W Low | $255.5 | yfinance |
| 1Y Return | +39.7% | yfinance |
| ⚠ yfinance IV 3.1% failed sanity check | ||
TLN lands at Cautious Yes with a 6.1 composite, driven mainly by a solid Fundamentals score (6.9) that is being offset by weaker Fortress Fit (5.2) and Valuation (5.6) readings. The fundamental story is genuinely strong: revenue growth of 96.7% (flagged volatile), expanding gross and operating margins, a healthy 7.5% FCF yield, and an earnings trajectory that swings EPS from -0.50 to a forecasted 30.04. That said, debt health scores only 3.1 with net debt/EBITDA at 7.1x and interest coverage of just 2.4x, and ROIC is being proxied by a weak 1.9% ROA fallback, so the balance sheet is carrying real leverage risk that tempers the fundamental picture. Fortress Fit at 5.2 is the pillar holding back conviction, and it is a mix of structural and data issues. Capital outlay is favorable (9.0, cheap on a per-contract basis relative to the stock price), but beta gap risk is high (9.0 signals danger here, beta 1.62), gap history is rough (worst day -11.3%, 14 gap days over 5%), and options liquidity is thin (LEAPS OI of 419 with a 10% spread). IV richness is only assessed via HV fallback (~56%) because real IV data was unavailable, which is a real limitation for pricing any options structure here, not a reflection of the underlying being bad. Valuation is mixed rather than cheap or expensive outright: forward P/E of 12.8x looks attractive given the earnings ramp, but EV/EBITDA at 35.6x and P/B at 16.32x are rich, and PEG could not be assessed due to missing data. Net effect: a fundamentally growing power producer with real balance sheet leverage and a Fortress structure that is workable but not ideal given liquidity and gap risk, hence Cautious Yes at moderate conviction (5/10) rather than a high-conviction Yes.
Price sits at 385.80, comfortably above both the 50-DMA and 200-DMA with a golden cross in place (trend_alignment scored 8.0), but ADX of 14.8 signals a choppy, non-trending environment, and MACD sits below signal with a negative histogram, dragging momentum down to 4.6. RSI at 51.3 is neutral, and volume confirmation is weak at RVOL 0.5x, meaning recent moves lack strong participation. Support sits at 364.77, then 350.26 and 328.73, with resistance at 396.70, 422.61 and 450.56. The technical picture reads as a stock in an uptrend structurally, but currently stalling without conviction, caught between support and its first resistance band. This is not a momentum breakout entry; it looks more like a consolidation phase where a pullback toward 365-375 would offer a better risk/reward for initiating a LEAPS-based structure than chasing strength into resistance at 396-422.
| Scenario | Price Target | Timeline | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $310 | 12-15 months | High leverage (7.1x ND/EBITDA, 2.4x interest coverage) becomes a problem if power prices soften or refinancing costs rise, compounded by the stock's history of sharp gap-down days. |
| Base | $430 | 12-18 months | Earnings ramp toward the forecasted 30.04 EPS plays out roughly as modeled, supporting a move toward resistance near 422-450 in line with continued nuclear-power demand tailwinds. |
| Bull | $490 | 18-24 months | Accelerating AI-driven data center power demand and favorable long-term power purchase agreements push the stock through the analyst target of 473 and beyond. |
The biggest structural risk is leverage: 7.1x net debt/EBITDA and 2.4x interest coverage leave limited cushion if power prices or capacity revenues disappoint, and the ROIC proxy of 1.9% ROA suggests capital efficiency is not yet proven. Gap risk is elevated and documented, not theoretical, with a worst single day of -11.3% and 14 separate drops exceeding 5%, which is exactly the kind of tail risk a LEAPS structure needs to be sized for. Options liquidity on the LEAPS chain is thin (OI around 419, roughly 557 days out, with a 10% spread), which will raise the real cost of entering and exiting the structure. Valuation carries risk too: EV/EBITDA of 35.6x and P/B of 16.32x are not cheap, so much of the growth story is already priced in, and a PEG ratio could not be computed to sanity-check growth-adjusted valuation. Finally, the IV data quality flag (hv_fallback) means the options pricing assumptions used here are based on historical volatility rather than confirmed implied volatility, so actual premium economics at trade time should be re-verified before sizing the position.
Fortress Fit scores 5.2/10, a middling result built from real strengths and real weaknesses. Capital outlay is attractive on a per-contract basis (score 9.0, roughly $38,580 per 100-share equivalent), and entry timing is workable with LEAPS available. But beta gap risk (1.62 beta, score 9.0 signaling elevated danger) and a gap history showing a -11.3% worst day and 14 moves over 5% are real hazards for a structure that relies on capped downside assumptions. Options liquidity is thin on the LEAPS chain (OI ~419, 10% spread), which will add slippage cost on entry and exit. Layered on top of all this, IV data quality is flagged as hv_fallback, meaning the 56% IV figure is a historical volatility proxy rather than confirmed market-implied volatility, so any premium capture assumptions here carry extra uncertainty and should be revalidated against live option chains before committing capital.
Overall: ALL PASSED
| Gate | Detail |
|---|---|
| ✓ G1 Price Data | $145.35 |
| ✓ G2 Market Cap | Market Cap: $22.14B |
| ✓ G3 Price History | 251 trading days (min: 100) |
| ✓ G4 Options | Options available (8 expirations) |
| ✓ G5 Delisting | No delisting signals |
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 25% | 5.0% [consistent] MEASURED | 6.0 | 1.500 |
| Gross Margin | 15% | 44.8% [+2.5pp YoY] MEASURED | 6.0 | 0.894 |
| Operating Margin | 15% | 17.9% [+2.8pp YoY] MEASURED | 6.6 | 0.988 |
| Fcf Yield | 10% | 2.0% MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.401 |
| Roic | 15% | ROA=3.7% (ROIC fallback) MEASURED | 5.2 | 0.787 |
| Debt Health | 10% | ND/EBITDA=3.9x, ICR=4.3x, CR=3.21 MEASURED | 5.8 | 0.585 |
| Earnings Trajectory | 10% | EPS(T)=1.73, EPS(F)=4.65, Fwd=+169% MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.900 |
| 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 6.06 → Adjusted: 6.06 | Composite contribution: 6.06 × 0.40 = 2.424 | 2.424 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Alignment | 25% | below 50-DMA, above 200-DMA, golden cross, ADX=16 MEASURED | 6.5 | 1.625 |
| Mean Reversion | 25% | RSI=47 (neutral), %B=26 (mid-band) MEASURED | 5.5 | 1.375 |
| Momentum | 20% | MACD below signal, histogram negative, ROC=12.8% (up) MEASURED | 4.6 | 0.920 |
| Positioning Sentiment | 20% | SI=9.1% (elevated), P/C=1.50 (elevated puts) MEASURED | 7.7 | 1.540 |
| Volume Confirmation | 10% | RVOL=0.4x (weak) MEASURED | 3.0 | 0.300 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.76 → Adjusted: 5.76 | Composite contribution: 5.76 × 0.15 = 0.864 | 0.864 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iv Richness | 35% | ~102% (HV, capped) MEASURED | 5.0 | 1.750 |
| Iv Vs Hv | 10% | N/A NO DATA | 4.0 | 0.400 |
| Beta Gap Risk | 10% | 1.31 MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.900 |
| Gap History | 10% | Worst day: -14.5%, >5% drops: 21 MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.400 |
| Capital Outlay | 5% | $14,535 per 100 shares MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.450 |
| Entry Timing | 10% | LEAPS available MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.550 |
| Options Liquidity | 20% | near-term OI 9,191 (workable), LEAPS OI 922 (~522d, thin), spread 10% MEASURED | 4.5 | 0.900 |
| IV Source: HV Fallback (capped at 5.0) 6/7 factors have data (86%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.35 → Adjusted: 5.35 | Composite contribution: 5.35 × 0.30 = 1.605 | 1.605 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward Pe | 30% | 31.3x MEASURED | 4.0 | 1.200 |
| Peg Ratio | 20% | 1.78 MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.800 |
| Ev Ebitda | 20% | 28.9x MEASURED | 3.0 | 0.600 |
| Analyst Upside | 15% | +13.5% to $165 MEASURED | 5.9 | 0.878 |
| Ps Or Pb | 15% | P/S=6.8x (asset-light) MEASURED | 7.0 | 1.050 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 4.53 → Adjusted: 4.53 | Composite contribution: 4.53 × 0.15 = 0.679 | 0.679 | |||
| Pillar | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals (40%) | 6.06 | 40% | 2.424 |
| Technicals (15%) | 5.76 | 15% | 0.864 |
| Fortress Fit (30%) | 5.35 | 30% | 1.605 |
| Valuation (15%) | 4.53 | 15% | 0.679 |
| Composite Score | 5.57 | ||
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 145.35 | yfinance/IBKR |
| Market Cap | $22.14B | yfinance |
| IV (IBKR) | — | IBKR live |
| IV (yfinance) | — | yfinance options |
| HV 30d | 101.5% | computed |
| Beta | 1.309 | yfinance |
| Revenue Growth | 5.0% | yfinance |
| Gross Margin | 44.8% | yfinance |
| Operating Margin | 17.9% | yfinance |
| FCF | $445.1M | yfinance |
| ROE (ref) | 6.8% | yfinance |
| ROA (ref) | 3.7% | yfinance |
| Total Equity | N/A | yfinance |
| D/E Ratio | 92.80 | yfinance |
| Current Ratio | 3.21 | yfinance |
| EPS Trailing | 1.73 | yfinance |
| EPS Forward | 4.65 | yfinance |
| Earnings Growth | 46.3% | yfinance |
| Fwd P/E | 31.25 | yfinance |
| PEG Ratio | 1.78 | yfinance |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.93 | yfinance |
| P/S Ratio | 6.84 | yfinance |
| P/B Ratio (ref) | 5.47 | yfinance |
| Analyst Target | $165.0 | yfinance |
| Near-term ATM OI | 9,191 | ~45d chain |
| LEAPS ATM OI | 922 | ~522d chain |
| Near-term Spread % | 10.0% | ~45d chain |
| Has LEAPS | Yes | yfinance |
| Next Earnings | 2026-07-30 | yfinance |
| Worst 1-Day Drop | -14.5% | price history |
| >5% Drop Days | 21 | price history |
| RSI 14 | 46.8 | computed |
| MACD | -0.47 | computed |
| ADX 14 | 16.30 | computed |
| Relative Volume | 0.37 | computed |
| 52W High | $186.94 | yfinance |
| 52W Low | $67.97 | yfinance |
| 1Y Return | +66.6% | yfinance |
| ⚠ yfinance IV 0.0% failed sanity check | ||
The composite 5.6/10 lands ENTG in Cautious Yes territory, and the pillar breakdown explains why conviction is capped at 4/10. Fundamentals at 6.1/10 are the strongest pillar, driven by an outstanding earnings trajectory score (9.0, EPS expected to jump from 1.73 to 4.65, +169%) and improving margins (gross +2.5pp YoY, operating +2.8pp YoY). But underneath that headline recovery story, free cash flow yield is weak (4.0, just 2.0%), ROIC had to fall back to an ROA proxy (5.2, 3.7%), and debt is elevated (ND/EBITDA 3.9x). This is a company whose earnings are inflecting sharply off a depressed base, not one generating strong cash returns today. Fortress Fit at 5.3/10 (30% weight) is the swing factor and it is why this is not a full conviction Yes. The pillar has genuine strengths, capital outlay is excellent (9.0, ~14,535 per 100 shares is manageable) and beta gap risk is low (9.0, beta 1.31), but gap history is a real problem (4.0, worst single day was -14.5% with 21 separate >5% drops historically) and LEAPS options liquidity is thin (4.5, only 922 open interest at ~522 days out with a 10% spread). Combined with a Valuation pillar that is genuinely rich (4.5/10, forward PE 31.3x, EV/EBITDA 28.9x, PEG 1.78), this is a stock priced for the recovery to actually happen, with structural friction on the options side that raises the cost of building and unwinding a Fortress structure. Net effect: this is a name with real fundamental improvement underway, but you are paying up for it, entering LEAPS in a market that isn't deep, and doing so on a stock with a track record of violent single-day moves. Cautious Yes with conviction 4/10 is a fair characterization, not a name to size heavily.
Price sits at 145.35, below the 50-DMA but above the 200-DMA, with a golden cross intact, though ADX of 16.3 confirms there is no strong directional trend right now, this is a chop zone. RSI at 46.8 is neutral and MACD is below its signal line with a negative histogram, both saying near-term momentum has stalled rather than reversed. Volume confirmation is weak (RVOL 0.4x), meaning the recent pullback lacks conviction in either direction. Resistance at 149.31 is immediate and close overhead, followed by 157.74 and the 52-week high of 186.94. Support sits at 134.86, then 122.88 and 107.69. The stock is up 66.6% over the past year and sitting well off its 52-week low, so the computed 'leaning stretched' positioning signal is sensible, this is not a name pulling back to a clean support test, it's consolidating after a big run. A better entry would likely come on a retest of the 134-137 zone rather than chasing at current levels.
| Scenario | Price Target | Timeline | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $115 | 12-18 months | Semiconductor capex cycle disappoints, high leverage (ND/EBITDA 3.9x) becomes a constraint, and the rich multiple (31x forward, 29x EV/EBITDA) compresses hard on any earnings miss. |
| Base | $165 | 12-18 months | In line with the current analyst consensus target, this assumes the forecasted EPS recovery to 4.65 largely plays out and multiples hold roughly steady. |
| Bull | $195 | 18-24 months | AI-driven semicap materials demand accelerates faster than expected, margins keep expanding, and the market re-rates the stock as the earnings inflection is confirmed in results. |
The biggest risk is paying a rich multiple for a recovery that is still mostly forward-looking, forward PE of 31.3x and EV/EBITDA of 28.9x already assume the EPS jump to 4.65 shows up on schedule. Debt is a secondary concern (ND/EBITDA 3.9x, ICR 4.3x), leaving less room for error if semiconductor capex spending slows. For a Fortress structure specifically, the gap history factor (4.0/10, worst day -14.5%, 21 historical drops over 5%) means this stock can move violently against a position without warning, and thin LEAPS open interest (922 contracts, ~522 days out) combined with a 10% bid-ask spread means both entry and exit will carry real slippage cost. The IV data itself is a limitation here too, see fortress_suitability.
Fortress Fit scores 5.3/10 on 86% factor coverage, one factor (IV vs HV) came back with no data and was defaulted rather than measured, so it should not be read as a weakness, just an unknown. Compounding that, the IV quality flag is 'hv_fallback', meaning the richness score of ~102% is a historical volatility proxy rather than a true implied vol read, so how rich options actually are right now cannot be fully confirmed. On the positive side, capital outlay is very manageable (9.0) and beta gap risk is low (9.0, beta 1.31). The offsetting negatives are real though: gap history (4.0) shows this stock has produced a -14.5% single day and 21 separate >5% moves, and LEAPS liquidity is thin (922 OI at ~522 days, 10% spread), which raises real-world execution cost for a multi-leg structure. This is a workable but not ideal Fortress candidate, better suited to smaller size and patient limit-order entries than a full-size, quick-fill approach.
Overall: ALL PASSED
| Gate | Detail |
|---|---|
| ✓ G1 Price Data | $359.60 |
| ✓ G2 Market Cap | Market Cap: $56.29B |
| ✓ G3 Price History | 251 trading days (min: 100) |
| ✓ G4 Options | Options available (13 expirations) |
| ✓ G5 Delisting | No delisting signals |
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 25% | 87.0% MEASURED | 10.0 | 2.500 |
| Gross Margin | 15% | 58.7% [+3.7pp YoY] MEASURED | 8.3 | 1.243 |
| Operating Margin | 15% | 37.6% [+22.9pp YoY] MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.500 |
| Fcf Yield | 10% | 0.5% (growth adj) MEASURED | 4.3 | 0.429 |
| Roic | 15% | ROA=15.8% (ROIC fallback) MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.500 |
| Debt Health | 10% | ND/EBITDA=-0.1x, ICR=123.8x, CR=2.15 MEASURED | 9.6 | 0.963 |
| Earnings Trajectory | 10% | EPS(T)=5.39, EPS(F)=9.84, Fwd=+83% MEASURED | 8.0 | 0.800 |
| 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 8.93 → Adjusted: 8.93 | Composite contribution: 8.93 × 0.40 = 3.572 | 3.572 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Alignment | 25% | below 50-DMA, above 200-DMA, golden cross, ADX=18 MEASURED | 6.5 | 1.625 |
| Mean Reversion | 25% | RSI=44 (sweet spot), %B=18 (below mid-band) MEASURED | 10.0 | 2.500 |
| Momentum | 20% | MACD below signal, histogram negative, ROC=3.5% (flat/up) MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.800 |
| Positioning Sentiment | 20% | SI=6.7% (elevated), P/C=N/A NO DATA | 7.5 | 1.500 |
| Volume Confirmation | 10% | RVOL=0.3x (weak) MEASURED | 3.0 | 0.300 |
| 4/5 factors have data (80%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 6.72 → Adjusted: 6.72 | Composite contribution: 6.72 × 0.15 = 1.008 | 1.008 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iv Richness | 35% | ~108% (HV, capped) MEASURED | 5.0 | 1.750 |
| Iv Vs Hv | 10% | N/A NO DATA | 4.0 | 0.400 |
| Beta Gap Risk | 10% | 1.74 MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.900 |
| Gap History | 10% | Worst day: -19.4%, >5% drops: 22 MEASURED | 2.0 | 0.200 |
| Capital Outlay | 5% | $35,960 per 100 shares MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.450 |
| Entry Timing | 10% | LEAPS available MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.550 |
| Options Liquidity | 20% | near-term OI 4 (illiquid), LEAPS OI 526 (~522d, thin), spread 10% MEASURED | 2.0 | 0.400 |
| IV Source: HV Fallback (capped at 5.0) 6/7 factors have data (86%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 4.65 → Adjusted: 4.65 | Composite contribution: 4.65 × 0.30 = 1.395 | 1.395 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward Pe | 30% | 36.6x MEASURED | 5.0 | 1.500 |
| Peg Ratio | 20% | 1.42 MEASURED | 6.0 | 1.200 |
| Ev Ebitda | 20% | 48.3x MEASURED | 2.5 | 0.500 |
| Analyst Upside | 15% | +17.7% to $423 MEASURED | 6.3 | 0.941 |
| Ps Or Pb | 15% | P/S=14.9x (asset-light) MEASURED | 6.5 | 0.975 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.12 → Adjusted: 5.12 | Composite contribution: 5.12 × 0.15 = 0.768 | 0.768 | |||
| Pillar | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals (40%) | 8.93 | 40% | 3.572 |
| Technicals (15%) | 6.72 | 15% | 1.008 |
| Fortress Fit (30%) | 4.65 | 30% | 1.395 |
| Valuation (15%) | 5.12 | 15% | 0.768 |
| Composite Score | 6.74 | ||
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 359.6 | yfinance/IBKR |
| Market Cap | $56.29B | yfinance |
| IV (IBKR) | — | IBKR live |
| IV (yfinance) | — | yfinance options |
| HV 30d | 107.6% | computed |
| Beta | 1.742 | yfinance |
| Revenue Growth | 87.0% | yfinance |
| Gross Margin | 58.7% | yfinance |
| Operating Margin | 37.6% | yfinance |
| FCF | $298.3M | yfinance |
| ROE (ref) | 28.7% | yfinance |
| ROA (ref) | 15.8% | yfinance |
| Total Equity | N/A | yfinance |
| D/E Ratio | 2.62 | yfinance |
| Current Ratio | 2.15 | yfinance |
| EPS Trailing | 5.39 | yfinance |
| EPS Forward | 9.84 | yfinance |
| Earnings Growth | 314.8% | yfinance |
| Fwd P/E | 36.56 | yfinance |
| PEG Ratio | 1.42 | yfinance |
| EV/EBITDA | 48.33 | yfinance |
| P/S Ratio | 14.87 | yfinance |
| P/B Ratio (ref) | 17.91 | yfinance |
| Analyst Target | $423.41177 | yfinance |
| Near-term ATM OI | 4 | ~45d chain |
| LEAPS ATM OI | 526 | ~522d chain |
| Near-term Spread % | 10.0% | ~45d chain |
| Has LEAPS | Yes | yfinance |
| Next Earnings | 2026-07-30 | yfinance |
| Worst 1-Day Drop | -19.4% | price history |
| >5% Drop Days | 22 | price history |
| RSI 14 | 44.1 | computed |
| MACD | -6.12 | computed |
| ADX 14 | 18.40 | computed |
| Relative Volume | 0.28 | computed |
| 52W High | $487.91 | yfinance |
| 52W Low | $88.6 | yfinance |
| 1Y Return | +271.5% | yfinance |
| ⚠ yfinance IV 0.0% failed sanity check | ||
The CAUTIOUS YES on TER is driven by a stark split between best-in-class fundamentals and a Fortress structure that is genuinely hard to trade. Fundamentals score 8.9/10, among the strongest you will see: revenue growth of 87%, operating margin expansion of +22.9pp YoY to 37.6%, an ROA-based ROIC proxy of 15.8%, a fortress balance sheet (net cash, ICR of 123.8x), and forward EPS growth of +83% to 9.84. This is a company executing exceptionally well on the AI-driven semiconductor test capex cycle. The soft spot is FCF yield at only 4.3/10 (0.5% growth-adjusted), reflecting how much of the value is priced in already. Valuation at 5.1/10 is the tell: forward P/E of 36.6x and PEG of 1.42 are reasonable given growth, but EV/EBITDA of 48.3x scores just 2.5/10, and analyst upside is a modest +17.7% to 423. The stock has already re-rated 271.5% over the past year, so most of the fundamental strength is now reflected in price. The real reason this is not a higher-conviction YES is Fortress Fit at 4.7/10, which triggers the hard override capping conviction at 5. Capital outlay is favorable (9.0, ~35,960 per 100 shares) and beta-adjusted gap risk actually scores well (9.0), but gap history is poor (2.0, worst single day of -19.4% with 22 separate >5% drops) and options liquidity is a genuine problem (2.0, near-term OI of only 4 contracts and LEAPS OI of 526 at ~522 days out with 10% spreads). A stock this prone to violent single-day moves, combined with thin LEAPS liquidity, is structurally awkward for a Fortress-style options position even though the underlying business is excellent.
Technicals land at 6.7/10 on 80% factor coverage, with a clear internal contradiction. Mean reversion scores a perfect 10.0, RSI at 44.1 sits in the sweet spot and %B at 18 is below the midband, both classic tactical entry signals. But trend and momentum are shakier: price is below the 50-DMA though above the 200-DMA (golden cross intact but ADX of only 18.4 signals a weak trend), and momentum scores just 4.0 with MACD below signal and a negative histogram. Volume confirmation is weak at 3.0 (RVOL 0.3x), meaning the current pullback lacks conviction in either direction. Support sits at 340.34, then 309.29 and 301.75. Resistance is at 382.86, 421.28, and the 52-week high of 487.91. With price at 359.60, the stock is trading in the middle of that band, above nearby support but well shy of resistance. This is a decent tactical entry zone from a mean-reversion standpoint, but the lack of volume confirmation and negative momentum argue for scaling in rather than going all-in.
| Scenario | Price Target | Timeline | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $285 | 12-18 months | A cyclical downturn in AI/semiconductor capex or a valuation reset off the rich 48.3x EV/EBITDA multiple could send the stock back toward the 301-309 support cluster and below. |
| Base | $420 | 12-18 months | Continued AI-driven test equipment demand and forward EPS growth to 9.84 support a move toward the analyst consensus target of 423, roughly in line with current resistance. |
| Bull | $490 | 18-24 months | Sustained AI compute test demand, margin expansion, and market share gains could push shares to fresh highs above the current 487.91 52-week high. |
TER carries real cyclicality risk tied to semiconductor capex spending and customer concentration in AI/compute test demand, meaning any slowdown in that spending cycle hits growth and margins quickly. Beta of 1.74 combined with a gap history of 22 separate >5% single-day drops (including a -19.4% worst day) shows this stock can move violently on earnings or guidance surprises, which is a serious consideration for anyone structuring long-dated options positions around it. The options market itself is a risk: near-term open interest of just 4 contracts and LEAPS open interest of 526 (out around 522 days) with 10% bid-ask spreads means entering or exiting a Fortress structure will carry real slippage cost. On top of that, EV/EBITDA of 48.3x leaves little room for multiple compression if growth decelerates from its currently torrid 87% pace.
Fortress Fit scores 4.7/10 on 86% factor coverage, and this pillar is the primary reason conviction is capped at 5 despite excellent fundamentals. Capital outlay is attractive (9.0, about 35,960 per 100 shares) and beta-adjusted gap risk scores well (9.0), but gap history (2.0) and options liquidity (2.0) are the real drags, this stock has a track record of sharp single-day moves and its LEAPS market is thin with wide spreads. Note also that IV data quality is flagged as hv_fallback, meaning true implied volatility and IV-vs-HV richness could not be measured directly and HV30 (107.6%) was used as a proxy, so the iv_richness and iv_vs_hv sub-scores carry more uncertainty than the composite number suggests. Any structure here needs to account for real execution costs and the possibility of large adverse gaps.
Overall: ALL PASSED
| Gate | Detail |
|---|---|
| ✓ G1 Price Data | $273.35 |
| ✓ G2 Market Cap | Market Cap: $58.67B |
| ✓ G3 Price History | 251 trading days (min: 100) |
| ✓ G4 Options | Options available (8 expirations) |
| ✓ G5 Delisting | No delisting signals |
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 25% | -10.2% [consistent] MEASURED | 1.0 | 0.250 |
| Gross Margin | 15% | 41.8% [-2.9pp YoY] MEASURED | 3.5 | 0.519 |
| Operating Margin | 15% | 20.9% [-3.6pp YoY] MEASURED | 6.2 | 0.927 |
| Fcf Yield | 10% | -0.5% MEASURED | 1.9 | 0.195 |
| Roic | 15% | ROA=9.1% (ROIC fallback) MEASURED | 7.7 | 1.148 |
| Debt Health | 10% | ND/EBITDA=3.7x, ICR=6.3x, CR=0.72 MEASURED | 4.8 | 0.480 |
| Earnings Trajectory | 10% | EPS(T)=9.79, EPS(F)=12.37, Fwd=+26% MEASURED | 7.0 | 0.700 |
| 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 4.22 → Adjusted: 4.22 | Composite contribution: 4.22 × 0.40 = 1.688 | 1.688 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Alignment | 25% | above 50-DMA, above 200-DMA, golden cross, ADX=15 MEASURED | 8.5 | 2.125 |
| Mean Reversion | 25% | RSI=56 (warming up), %B=75 (mid-band) MEASURED | 4.5 | 1.125 |
| Momentum | 20% | MACD above signal, histogram positive, ROC=0.3% (flat/up) MEASURED | 7.0 | 1.400 |
| Positioning Sentiment | 20% | SI=2.5% (moderate), P/C=N/A NO DATA | 6.0 | 1.200 |
| Volume Confirmation | 10% | RVOL=0.5x MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.500 |
| 4/5 factors have data (80%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 6.35 → Adjusted: 6.35 | Composite contribution: 6.35 × 0.15 = 0.952 | 0.952 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iv Richness | 35% | ~30% (HV, capped) MEASURED | 5.0 | 1.750 |
| Iv Vs Hv | 10% | N/A NO DATA | 4.0 | 0.400 |
| Beta Gap Risk | 10% | 0.70 MEASURED | 6.0 | 0.600 |
| Gap History | 10% | Worst day: -5.5%, >5% drops: 1 MEASURED | 7.0 | 0.700 |
| Capital Outlay | 5% | $27,335 per 100 shares MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.450 |
| Entry Timing | 10% | no LEAPS chains MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.400 |
| Options Liquidity | 20% | near-term OI 2,039 (thin), LEAPS OI 2 (~339d, illiquid), spread 10% MEASURED | 2.0 | 0.400 |
| IV Source: HV Fallback (capped at 5.0) 6/7 factors have data (86%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 4.70 → Adjusted: 4.70 | Composite contribution: 4.70 × 0.30 = 1.410 | 1.410 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward Pe | 30% | 22.1x MEASURED | 6.0 | 1.800 |
| Peg Ratio | 20% | 1.25 MEASURED | 6.0 | 1.200 |
| Ev Ebitda | 20% | 14.9x MEASURED | 7.5 | 1.500 |
| Analyst Upside | 15% | +5.4% to $288 MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.756 |
| Ps Or Pb | 15% | P/B=18.71x MEASURED | 1.5 | 0.225 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.48 → Adjusted: 5.48 | Composite contribution: 5.48 × 0.15 = 0.822 | 0.822 | |||
| Pillar | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals (40%) | 4.22 | 40% | 1.688 |
| Technicals (15%) | 6.35 | 15% | 0.952 |
| Fortress Fit (30%) | 4.70 | 30% | 1.410 |
| Valuation (15%) | 5.48 | 15% | 0.822 |
| Composite Score | 4.87 | ||
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 273.35 | yfinance/IBKR |
| Market Cap | $58.67B | yfinance |
| IV (IBKR) | — | IBKR live |
| IV (yfinance) | — | yfinance options |
| HV 30d | 29.8% | computed |
| Beta | 0.704 | yfinance |
| Revenue Growth | -10.2% | yfinance |
| Gross Margin | 41.8% | yfinance |
| Operating Margin | 20.9% | yfinance |
| FCF | $-318.6M | yfinance |
| ROE (ref) | 74.1% | yfinance |
| ROA (ref) | 9.1% | yfinance |
| Total Equity | N/A | yfinance |
| D/E Ratio | 585.25 | yfinance |
| Current Ratio | 0.72 | yfinance |
| EPS Trailing | 9.79 | yfinance |
| EPS Forward | 12.37 | yfinance |
| Earnings Growth | 142.9% | yfinance |
| Fwd P/E | 22.09 | yfinance |
| PEG Ratio | 1.25 | yfinance |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.92 | yfinance |
| P/S Ratio | 3.54 | yfinance |
| P/B Ratio (ref) | 18.71 | yfinance |
| Analyst Target | $288.0476 | yfinance |
| Near-term ATM OI | 2,039 | ~45d chain |
| LEAPS ATM OI | 2 | ~339d chain |
| Near-term Spread % | 10.0% | ~45d chain |
| Has LEAPS | No | yfinance |
| Next Earnings | 2026-08-06 | yfinance |
| Worst 1-Day Drop | -5.5% | price history |
| >5% Drop Days | 1 | price history |
| RSI 14 | 56.1 | computed |
| MACD | 2.49 | computed |
| ADX 14 | 15.30 | computed |
| Relative Volume | 0.54 | computed |
| 52W High | $280.0 | yfinance |
| 52W Low | $144.14 | yfinance |
| 1Y Return | +62.7% | yfinance |
| ⚠ yfinance IV 0.0% failed sanity check | ||
The quant engine lands on NO with low conviction (3/10) off a composite of 4.9, and the biggest drag is Fundamentals at 4.2/10 (40% weight). Revenue is down 10.2% (consistently, per the model) which scores a bottom-tier 1.0, gross margin has compressed 2.9pp to 41.8% and operating margin is down 3.6pp to 20.9%. FCF yield is negative (-0.5%), and the balance sheet shows real strain: ND/EBITDA of 3.7x, and a current ratio of just 0.72, which pulls debt health down to 4.8. The one bright spot in fundamentals is earnings trajectory (7.0), with forward EPS pegged at +26% growth to 12.37, but that alone can't offset the top-line deterioration and thin liquidity. Fortress Fit at 4.7/10 (30% weight) is the second major drag, and it's not from a data problem, it's from real, measured constraints. Options liquidity scores just 2.0: near-term open interest of 2,039 is thin, LEAPS open interest is effectively 2 contracts at ~339 days out, and spreads run 10% wide. Entry timing scores 4.0 because there are effectively no usable LEAPS chains. Capital outlay is favorable (9.0, ~27,335 per 100 shares) and beta/gap risk are both fine (0.70 beta, only one >5% drop day), but none of that matters if you can't actually build or exit a LEAPS structure at a reasonable price. Valuation (5.5/10) is mixed rather than bad: forward P/E of 22.1x and PEG of 1.25 are reasonable (6.0 each), EV/EBITDA of 14.9x is the best factor here (7.5), but P/B of 18.71x is extreme (1.5) and analyst upside to the $288 target is a modest 5.4% (5.0). None of this is enough to rescue the composite once Fundamentals and Fortress Fit are weighted in.
Technicals are the strongest pillar (6.3/10) but don't change the verdict given their 15% weight. Trend alignment is excellent (8.5): price is above both the 50-DMA and 200-DMA with a golden cross in place, though ADX of only 15.3 signals the trend lacks real strength or conviction, it's drifting up rather than trending hard. Momentum is solid (7.0, MACD above signal with a positive histogram), but volume confirmation is weak (5.0, RVOL 0.5x), meaning the recent grind higher isn't backed by strong participation. RSI at 56 and %B at 75 put the stock mid-band to slightly rich, not oversold, not extreme. Price is $273.35 against a 52-week range of 144.14 to 280.00, sitting right under resistance at 278.13 and near all-time highs. Support levels are stacked below at 254.27, 241.86, and 229.68, meaning there's real room to fall before finding a floor. Combined with the positioning read of moderately stretched up, this is not a fresh, low-risk entry, it's a name that has already run and is testing resistance on thin volume.
| Scenario | Price Target | Timeline | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $235 | 12 months | Revenue continues its -10% trajectory, leverage (3.7x ND/EBITDA) and a sub-1.0 current ratio start to matter to the market, and price mean-reverts toward the 241-230 support band. |
| Base | $288 | 12-18 months | Forward EPS growth of +26% is realized and multiple holds near current levels, converging toward the analyst consensus target with modest upside. |
| Bull | $315 | 18-24 months | Margin pressure stabilizes, earnings trajectory (+26% forward) drives re-rating, and midstream sector tailwinds push the stock through resistance toward new highs despite stretched book value. |
The core risk is a fundamentally decelerating business (revenue -10.2%, margins compressing) trading at a rich 18.71x P/B, sitting at 52-week highs after a 62.7% one-year run. If the +26% forward EPS number disappoints, there is little valuation cushion and support levels 7-16% below current price become live targets. The 0.72 current ratio and 3.7x leverage also leave less room for error if commodity or rate conditions turn. Separately, and more relevant to the Fortress strategy specifically: the options market here is genuinely illiquid. LEAPS open interest of essentially 2 contracts and 10% spreads mean that even if the fundamental and technical case were stronger, actually constructing and later unwinding a LEAPS-based structure could be costly or impractical.
Fortress Fit scores 4.7/10, missing 14% of its factors (iv_vs_hv defaulted due to no data), and the IV inputs rely on hv_fallback rather than real implied vol data, so richness and skew reads here should be treated with caution rather than confidence. More importantly, the measured factors are the problem: options liquidity is genuinely poor (2.0, OI of 2 contracts on LEAPS, 10% spreads) and entry timing scores 4.0 because there are effectively no tradable LEAPS chains. Capital outlay and beta/gap risk are favorable, but a structure that requires long-dated options can't be built cheaply or exited cleanly in this name today.
Overall: ALL PASSED
| Gate | Detail |
|---|---|
| ✓ G1 Price Data | $12.33 |
| ✓ G2 Market Cap | Market Cap: $805.3M |
| ✓ G3 Price History | 251 trading days (min: 100) |
| ✓ G4 Options | Options available (6 expirations) |
| ✓ G5 Delisting | No delisting signals |
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 25% | -9.7% MEASURED | 0.1 | 0.025 |
| Gross Margin | 15% | 14.5% [-1.5pp YoY] MEASURED | 0.0 | 0.000 |
| Operating Margin | 15% | -20.0% [-10.9pp YoY] MEASURED | 1.0 | 0.150 |
| Fcf Yield | 10% | -12.1% MEASURED | 0.8 | 0.079 |
| Roic | 15% | ROA=-4.8% (ROIC fallback) MEASURED | 1.5 | 0.225 |
| Debt Health | 10% | ND/EBITDA=89.8x, ICR=0.3x, CR=4.88 MEASURED | 3.0 | 0.305 |
| Earnings Trajectory | 10% | EPS(T)=-1.10, EPS(F)=0.07 MEASURED | 8.5 | 0.850 |
| 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 1.63 → Adjusted: 1.63 | Composite contribution: 1.63 × 0.40 = 0.652 | 0.652 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Alignment | 25% | below 50-DMA, below 200-DMA, death cross, ADX=16 MEASURED | 1.5 | 0.375 |
| Mean Reversion | 25% | RSI=39 (sweet spot), %B=26 (mid-band) MEASURED | 9.0 | 2.250 |
| Momentum | 20% | MACD below signal, histogram negative, ROC=-13.7% (down) MEASURED | 3.0 | 0.600 |
| Positioning Sentiment | 20% | SI=56.8% (extreme short, risky), P/C=N/A NO DATA | 7.0 | 1.400 |
| Volume Confirmation | 10% | RVOL=0.6x MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.500 |
| 4/5 factors have data (80%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.12 → Adjusted: 5.12 | Composite contribution: 5.12 × 0.15 = 0.768 | 0.768 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iv Richness | 35% | 97% MEASURED | 10.0 | 3.500 |
| Iv Vs Hv | 10% | IV/HV=1.52x MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.000 |
| Beta Gap Risk | 10% | 1.26 MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.900 |
| Gap History | 10% | Worst day: -20.3%, >5% drops: 38 MEASURED | 2.0 | 0.200 |
| Capital Outlay | 5% | $1,233 per 100 shares MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.450 |
| Entry Timing | 10% | LEAPS available MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.550 |
| Options Liquidity | 20% | near-term OI 10,499 (good), LEAPS OI 329 (~557d, thin), spread 10% MEASURED | 5.5 | 1.100 |
| IV Source: IBKR Live 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 7.70 → Adjusted: 7.70 | Composite contribution: 7.70 × 0.30 = 2.310 | 2.310 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward Pe | 30% | 189.7x MEASURED | 0.5 | 0.150 |
| Peg Ratio | 20% | N/A NO DATA | 4.0 | 0.800 |
| Ev Ebitda | 20% | 1210.3x MEASURED | 0.5 | 0.100 |
| Analyst Upside | 15% | +111.9% to $26 MEASURED | 7.5 | 1.125 |
| Ps Or Pb | 15% | P/B=1.88x MEASURED | 8.0 | 1.200 |
| 4/5 factors have data (80%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 3.38 → Adjusted: 3.38 | Composite contribution: 3.38 × 0.15 = 0.507 | 0.507 | |||
| Pillar | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals (40%) | 1.63 | 40% | 0.652 |
| Technicals (15%) | 5.12 | 15% | 0.768 |
| Fortress Fit (30%) | 7.70 | 30% | 2.310 |
| Valuation (15%) | 3.38 | 15% | 0.507 |
| Composite Score | 4.24 | ||
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 12.33 | yfinance/IBKR |
| Market Cap | $805.3M | yfinance |
| IV (IBKR) | 97.1% | IBKR live |
| IV (yfinance) | — | yfinance options |
| HV 30d | 63.9% | computed |
| Beta | 1.256 | yfinance |
| Revenue Growth | -9.7% | yfinance |
| Gross Margin | 14.5% | yfinance |
| Operating Margin | -20.0% | yfinance |
| FCF | $-97.8M | yfinance |
| ROE (ref) | -15.2% | yfinance |
| ROA (ref) | -4.8% | yfinance |
| Total Equity | N/A | yfinance |
| D/E Ratio | 107.28 | yfinance |
| Current Ratio | 4.88 | yfinance |
| EPS Trailing | -1.10 | yfinance |
| EPS Forward | 0.07 | yfinance |
| Earnings Growth | N/A | yfinance |
| Fwd P/E | 189.69 | yfinance |
| PEG Ratio | N/A | yfinance |
| EV/EBITDA | 1210.32 | yfinance |
| P/S Ratio | 1.54 | yfinance |
| P/B Ratio (ref) | 1.88 | yfinance |
| Analyst Target | $26.125 | yfinance |
| Near-term ATM OI | 10,499 | ~45d chain |
| LEAPS ATM OI | 329 | ~557d chain |
| Near-term Spread % | 10.0% | ~45d chain |
| Has LEAPS | Yes | yfinance |
| Next Earnings | 2026-07-31 | yfinance |
| Worst 1-Day Drop | -20.3% | price history |
| >5% Drop Days | 38 | price history |
| RSI 14 | 39.2 | computed |
| MACD | -0.66 | computed |
| ADX 14 | 16.20 | computed |
| Relative Volume | 0.63 | computed |
| 52W High | $57.8 | yfinance |
| 52W Low | $11.34 | yfinance |
| 1Y Return | -25.8% | yfinance |
| ⚠ yfinance IV 0.0% failed sanity check | ||
The engine lands on NO with a composite of 4.2/10 and low conviction (3/10), and the math is straightforward: Fundamentals carry 40% weight and score only 1.6/10. Revenue is down 9.7%, gross margin has compressed to 14.5%, operating margin is -20%, and ROA sits at -4.8%. The one bright spot in this pillar is earnings trajectory (8.5/10), reflecting a projected swing from -1.10 EPS to +0.07, but that alone cannot offset the rest of a badly deteriorating operating picture, including a debt_health reading built on ND/EBITDA of 89.8x and interest coverage of just 0.3x, meaning current earnings barely service debt. Valuation at 3.4/10 confirms the stock is not cheap on any trailing or near-term basis: forward P/E of 189.7x and EV/EBITDA over 1,200x are effectively meaningless multiples driven by depressed near-term earnings, though P/B of 1.88x and the +111.9% analyst upside to 26.125 keep this pillar from being a total zero. Fortress Fit is genuinely strong at 7.7/10, driven by rich IV (97%), a favorable IV/HV ratio of 1.52x, useful beta (1.26), and low capital outlay (about 1,233 dollars per 100 shares), which is exactly the environment a LEAPS structure wants to sell into. But Fortress Fit is 30% weight, not enough to overrule a 40%-weighted fundamentals pillar that is this weak. The net result is a name with excellent optionality mechanics wrapped around a fundamentally troubled coking coal producer, which is why the verdict is NO despite the option-friendly volatility profile.
RSI at 39.2 sits in the classic entry sweet spot and %B is mid-band, both constructive from a mean-reversion standpoint, and this is reflected in the 9.0 mean_reversion score. But trend_alignment is poor (1.5/10): price is below both the 50-DMA and 200-DMA with a death cross in place, and ADX of 16.2 confirms there is no real trend strength either direction. Momentum is also negative, with MACD below signal and ROC at -13.7%, and volume confirmation is soft at 0.6x relative volume, meaning any bounce right now would lack conviction from participants. Resistance stacks up close overhead at 13.99, 15.76, and 16.2, so there is real supply to work through before this becomes a trending recovery rather than a bounce inside a downtrend. Short interest is genuinely extreme at 56.8%, which the positioning score picks up as risky (squeeze potential but also confirmation the market is aggressively betting against the name); the put/call side of that same factor could not be assessed due to missing data, so treat the 7.0 positioning score as partially informed rather than a clean signal.
| Scenario | Price Target | Timeline | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $9 | 12 months | Coking coal prices stay depressed, revenue keeps shrinking and the 0.3x interest coverage becomes a real liquidity concern, pushing shares toward or below the 52-week low of 11.34. |
| Base | $15 | 12-18 months | Earnings inflect toward the forecasted 0.07 EPS and coal pricing stabilizes, allowing the stock to work back into the 13.99-16.20 resistance band without a re-rating in trailing multiples. |
| Bull | $24 | 18-24 months | A coking coal price recovery combined with progress on Ramaco's diversification projects drives a re-rating closer to the analyst consensus target of 26.125. |
The core risk is balance sheet stress disguised by a headline P/B that looks reasonable. An interest coverage ratio of 0.3x paired with ND/EBITDA of 89.8x signals that current cash generation is nowhere near sufficient to comfortably service debt if coal prices stay weak, and revenue is still declining at -9.7% with margins compressing. This is a commodity name whose fundamentals are hostage to coking coal pricing outside management's control. On the options side, gap_history scores just 2.0 for good reason: the stock has seen 38 separate days with moves greater than 5% and a worst single day of -20.3%. That is a lot of tail risk for a LEAPS structure to absorb even with rich IV. LEAPS open interest is thin (329 contracts, roughly 557 days out) with spreads around 10%, so entering and exiting size in the long-dated legs will carry real slippage cost that a naive IV-rich screen does not capture.
Fortress Fit scores a strong 7.7/10 (100% factor coverage), driven by rich implied volatility (97%, ranked 10/10), a favorable IV/HV ratio of 1.52x, useful beta for gap exposure, and low capital outlay near 1,233 dollars per 100 shares, all of which make the premium-selling math attractive. The offsetting problems are gap_history (2.0/10, reflecting 38 days of 5%+ moves and a -20.3% worst day) and only middling options_liquidity (5.5/10) because LEAPS open interest is thin at 329 contracts with 10% spreads. This is a name where the volatility surface is attractive but the underlying stock can gap hard and the long-dated legs are not deep, so position sizing and staged entries matter more than usual.
Overall: ALL PASSED
| Gate | Detail |
|---|---|
| ✓ G1 Price Data | $1055.18 |
| ✓ G2 Market Cap | Market Cap: $311.29B |
| ✓ G3 Price History | 251 trading days (min: 100) |
| ✓ G4 Options | Options available (19 expirations) |
| ✓ G5 Delisting | No delisting signals |
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 25% | 14.5% MEASURED | 6.6 | 1.646 |
| Gross Margin | 15% | 82.3% MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.500 |
| Operating Margin | 15% | 38.6% MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.500 |
| Fcf Yield | 10% | N/A NO DATA | 3.0 | 0.300 |
| Roic | 15% | ROA=0.9% (ROIC fallback) MEASURED | 3.6 | 0.535 |
| Debt Health | 10% | ND/EBITDA=N/A, ICR=N/A, CR=1.50 NO DATA | 4.8 | 0.475 |
| Earnings Trajectory | 10% | EPS(T)=54.76, EPS(F)=67.10, Fwd=+23% MEASURED | 7.0 | 0.700 |
| 5/7 factors have data (71%) — Coverage penalty: -0.5 Pillar score: Raw: 6.66 → Adjusted: 6.16 (-0.50) | Composite contribution: 6.16 × 0.40 = 2.464 | 2.464 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Alignment | 25% | above 50-DMA, above 200-DMA, golden cross, ADX=19 MEASURED | 8.5 | 2.125 |
| Mean Reversion | 25% | RSI=54 (neutral), %B=49 (mid-band) MEASURED | 5.5 | 1.375 |
| Momentum | 20% | MACD below signal, histogram negative, ROC=5.4% (up) MEASURED | 4.6 | 0.920 |
| Positioning Sentiment | 20% | SI=2.2% (moderate), P/C=N/A NO DATA | 6.0 | 1.200 |
| Volume Confirmation | 10% | RVOL=0.5x MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.500 |
| 4/5 factors have data (80%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 6.12 → Adjusted: 6.12 | Composite contribution: 6.12 × 0.15 = 0.918 | 0.918 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iv Richness | 35% | ~36% (HV, capped) MEASURED | 5.0 | 1.750 |
| Iv Vs Hv | 10% | N/A NO DATA | 4.0 | 0.400 |
| Beta Gap Risk | 10% | 1.29 MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.900 |
| Gap History | 10% | Worst day: -7.5%, >5% drops: 1 MEASURED | 7.0 | 0.700 |
| Capital Outlay | 5% | $105,518 per 100 shares MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.250 |
| Entry Timing | 10% | LEAPS available MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.550 |
| Options Liquidity | 20% | near-term OI 25 (illiquid), LEAPS OI 10,312 (~557d, deep), spread 10% MEASURED | 5.0 | 1.000 |
| IV Source: HV Fallback (capped at 5.0) 6/7 factors have data (86%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.55 → Adjusted: 5.55 | Composite contribution: 5.55 × 0.30 = 1.665 | 1.665 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward Pe | 30% | 15.7x MEASURED | 6.0 | 1.800 |
| Peg Ratio | 20% | 1.59 MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.800 |
| Ev Ebitda | 20% | N/A NO DATA | 3.0 | 0.600 |
| Analyst Upside | 15% | -3.4% to $1019 MEASURED | 2.9 | 0.435 |
| Ps Or Pb | 15% | P/B=2.96x MEASURED | 8.0 | 1.200 |
| 4/5 factors have data (80%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 4.83 → Adjusted: 4.83 | Composite contribution: 4.83 × 0.15 = 0.725 | 0.725 | |||
| Pillar | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals (40%) | 6.16 | 40% | 2.464 |
| Technicals (15%) | 6.12 | 15% | 0.918 |
| Fortress Fit (30%) | 5.55 | 30% | 1.665 |
| Valuation (15%) | 4.83 | 15% | 0.725 |
| Composite Score | 5.77 | ||
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 1055.18 | yfinance/IBKR |
| Market Cap | $311.29B | yfinance |
| IV (IBKR) | — | IBKR live |
| IV (yfinance) | — | yfinance options |
| HV 30d | 35.6% | computed |
| Beta | 1.292 | yfinance |
| Revenue Growth | 14.5% | yfinance |
| Gross Margin | 82.3% | yfinance |
| Operating Margin | 38.6% | yfinance |
| FCF | N/A | yfinance |
| ROE (ref) | 14.5% | yfinance |
| ROA (ref) | 0.9% | yfinance |
| Total Equity | N/A | yfinance |
| D/E Ratio | 678.60 | yfinance |
| Current Ratio | 1.50 | yfinance |
| EPS Trailing | 54.76 | yfinance |
| EPS Forward | 67.10 | yfinance |
| Earnings Growth | 24.2% | yfinance |
| Fwd P/E | 15.73 | yfinance |
| PEG Ratio | 1.59 | yfinance |
| EV/EBITDA | N/A | yfinance |
| P/S Ratio | 5.06 | yfinance |
| P/B Ratio (ref) | 2.96 | yfinance |
| Analyst Target | $1019.2 | yfinance |
| Near-term ATM OI | 25 | ~45d chain |
| LEAPS ATM OI | 10,312 | ~557d chain |
| Near-term Spread % | 10.0% | ~45d chain |
| Has LEAPS | Yes | yfinance |
| Next Earnings | 2026-07-14 | yfinance |
| Worst 1-Day Drop | -7.5% | price history |
| >5% Drop Days | 1 | price history |
| RSI 14 | 54.4 | computed |
| MACD | 6.97 | computed |
| ADX 14 | 18.70 | computed |
| Relative Volume | 0.51 | computed |
| 52W High | $1125.0 | yfinance |
| 52W Low | $691.3 | yfinance |
| 1Y Return | +52.7% | yfinance |
| ⚠ yfinance IV 0.4% failed sanity check | ||
The composite score of 5.8 lands GS in Cautious Yes territory, driven by genuinely solid fundamentals (6.2/10) that are being offset by a stretched valuation (4.8/10) and a middling Fortress Fit (5.5/10). On the fundamentals side, revenue growth of 14.5% and operating margin of 38.6% are strong, and the earnings trajectory factor scores 7.0 on the back of forward EPS growth of +23% (54.76 to 67.10). The drag comes from ROIC, which scores only 3.6 using an ROA fallback of 0.9%, and two factors, FCF yield and debt health, that could not be assessed due to missing data (defaulted to neutral, not weak). Fundamentals coverage sits at only 71%, so this pillar carries more estimation risk than the headline number suggests. Valuation is the weakest pillar at 4.8/10 and is the main reason conviction is capped at 4/10 despite decent fundamentals. Forward P/E of 15.7x is reasonable (score 6.0) and P/B of 2.96x actually scores well (8.0), but PEG of 1.59 (score 4.0) and analyst upside of -3.4% against a 1019 target (score 2.9) both point to a stock that has already priced in a lot of good news. With the shares up 52.7% over the past year and sitting near the top of the 52-week range, the market is not leaving much margin of safety at current levels. Fortress Fit at 5.5/10 is adequate but not clean. Beta gap risk (9.0) and gap history (7.0) are favorable for a structure that wants controlled downside behavior, but IV vs HV could not be properly assessed (hv_fallback, defaulted to 4.0) and capital outlay is high at roughly 105,518 per 100 shares. Options liquidity is mixed: LEAPS open interest is deep at 10,312 contracts (~557 days out), but near-term OI is thin (25 contracts) and the spread runs 10%, which will add real execution drag on entries and adjustments.
Price is 1055.18, roughly in the middle of the 1001.52 support and 1098.36/1125.0 resistance band, and near the top of its 52-week range (691.3 to 1125.0). Trend alignment scores strongly at 8.5, with the stock above both the 50-DMA and 200-DMA and a golden cross in place, but ADX of 18.7 signals the trend lacks strong directional force. Momentum is the soft spot, scoring only 4.6 as MACD sits below its signal line with a negative histogram, and volume confirmation is weak at RVOL 0.5x, meaning the recent move up has not been backed by heavy participation. RSI at 54 and %B near 49 both read neutral, no overbought or oversold extreme either way. The positioning signal is LEANING STRETCHED, consistent with a stock that has run 52.7% in a year and now sits with an analyst target (1019) below the current price. This is not a technical breakdown, but it argues against chasing strength here. A pullback toward the 1001-1020 support shelf would offer a materially better risk-reward entry for a LEAPS structure than initiating at current levels.
| Scenario | Price Target | Timeline | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $900 | 12-18 months | A pullback through the 1001.52 support toward the 904 level on trading/IB revenue slowdown, multiple compression from the already-rich PEG of 1.59, or a broader risk-off move given the elevated beta of 1.29. |
| Base | $1,050 | 12 months | Shares consolidate near current levels in line with the hold rating and 1019 analyst target, with earnings growth offsetting a valuation that already reflects most of the good news. |
| Bull | $1,230 | 18-24 months | Forward EPS growth of +23% continues to come through, capital markets activity stays strong, and the stock re-rates modestly off its current 15.7x forward multiple. |
The biggest risk is that this is a stretched entry: the stock is up over 50% in a year, sits near 52-week highs, and the analyst consensus target is actually below the current price. Momentum indicators (MACD, RVOL) are already showing signs of fatigue even as the longer-term trend remains intact, so downside volatility risk to the 1001 or even 904 support levels is real if sentiment turns. On the data side, two fundamentals factors (FCF yield, debt health) and one valuation factor (EV/EBITDA) could not be assessed and defaulted to neutral scores, meaning the true balance sheet and cash generation picture is less complete than the composite score implies. The IV data quality flag of hv_fallback means the options pricing used for Fortress analysis is an approximation, not measured implied volatility, which adds uncertainty to premium-selling assumptions. Wide 10% spreads and thin near-term open interest (25 contracts) will raise real transaction costs on any tactical adjustments.
Fortress Fit scores 5.5/10 on 86% factor coverage, a middling but not disqualifying result. The beta gap risk factor (9.0) and gap history (7.0, worst single day -7.5%) are constructive for structures that need predictable downside behavior. The concerns are capital intensity (roughly 105,518 per 100 shares, scoring only 5.0) which limits position sizing flexibility, and options liquidity (5.0), where LEAPS open interest is genuinely deep (10,312 contracts, ~557 days to expiry) but near-term contracts are thin and the 10% spread will add cost to entries and rolls. Importantly, the IV data quality here is hv_fallback, meaning richness and IV-vs-HV factors are built on historical volatility as a proxy rather than true implied volatility, so any long-option pricing assumptions in the structure should be treated with added caution until better options data is available.
Overall: ALL PASSED
| Gate | Detail |
|---|---|
| ✓ G1 Price Data | $1188.58 |
| ✓ G2 Market Cap | Market Cap: $1.06T |
| ✓ G3 Price History | 251 trading days (min: 100) |
| ✓ G4 Options | Options available (18 expirations) |
| ✓ G5 Delisting | No delisting signals |
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 25% | 55.5% MEASURED | 10.0 | 2.500 |
| Gross Margin | 15% | 82.8% [-2.3pp YoY] MEASURED | 9.0 | 1.350 |
| Operating Margin | 15% | 49.4% [+4.3pp YoY] MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.500 |
| Fcf Yield | 10% | 0.9% (growth adj) MEASURED | 4.8 | 0.480 |
| Roic | 15% | ROA=20.7% (ROIC fallback) MEASURED | 10.0 | 1.500 |
| Debt Health | 10% | ND/EBITDA=1.0x, ICR=42.2x, CR=1.50 MEASURED | 7.8 | 0.775 |
| Earnings Trajectory | 10% | EPS(T)=28.17, EPS(F)=44.82, Fwd=+59% MEASURED | 8.0 | 0.800 |
| 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 8.90 → Adjusted: 8.90 | Composite contribution: 8.90 × 0.40 = 3.560 | 3.560 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Alignment | 25% | above 50-DMA, above 200-DMA, golden cross, ADX=32 (strong trend) MEASURED | 10.0 | 2.500 |
| Mean Reversion | 25% | RSI=57 (warming up), %B=62 (mid-band) MEASURED | 4.5 | 1.125 |
| Momentum | 20% | MACD below signal, histogram negative, ROC=4.6% (flat/up) MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.800 |
| Positioning Sentiment | 20% | SI=1.1% (low), P/C=N/A NO DATA | 4.0 | 0.800 |
| Volume Confirmation | 10% | RVOL=0.6x MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.500 |
| 4/5 factors have data (80%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.72 → Adjusted: 5.72 | Composite contribution: 5.72 × 0.15 = 0.858 | 0.858 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iv Richness | 35% | ~35% (HV, capped) MEASURED | 5.0 | 1.750 |
| Iv Vs Hv | 10% | N/A NO DATA | 4.0 | 0.400 |
| Beta Gap Risk | 10% | 0.51 MEASURED | 6.0 | 0.600 |
| Gap History | 10% | Worst day: -14.1%, >5% drops: 4 MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.500 |
| Capital Outlay | 5% | $118,858 per 100 shares MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.250 |
| Entry Timing | 10% | LEAPS available MEASURED | 5.5 | 0.550 |
| Options Liquidity | 20% | near-term OI 18 (illiquid), LEAPS OI 1,143 (~431d, workable), spread 10% MEASURED | 3.5 | 0.700 |
| IV Source: HV Fallback (capped at 5.0) 6/7 factors have data (86%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 4.75 → Adjusted: 4.75 | Composite contribution: 4.75 × 0.30 = 1.425 | 1.425 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward Pe | 30% | 26.5x MEASURED | 5.0 | 1.500 |
| Peg Ratio | 20% | 1.54 MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.800 |
| Ev Ebitda | 20% | 30.3x MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.800 |
| Analyst Upside | 15% | +4.6% to $1243 MEASURED | 4.9 | 0.736 |
| Ps Or Pb | 15% | P/B=34.04x MEASURED | 1.0 | 0.150 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 3.99 → Adjusted: 3.99 | Composite contribution: 3.99 × 0.15 = 0.599 | 0.599 | |||
| Pillar | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals (40%) | 8.90 | 40% | 3.560 |
| Technicals (15%) | 5.72 | 15% | 0.858 |
| Fortress Fit (30%) | 4.75 | 30% | 1.425 |
| Valuation (15%) | 3.99 | 15% | 0.599 |
| Composite Score | 6.44 | ||
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 1188.58 | yfinance/IBKR |
| Market Cap | $1.06T | yfinance |
| IV (IBKR) | — | IBKR live |
| IV (yfinance) | — | yfinance options |
| HV 30d | 35.0% | computed |
| Beta | 0.506 | yfinance |
| Revenue Growth | 55.5% | yfinance |
| Gross Margin | 82.8% | yfinance |
| Operating Margin | 49.4% | yfinance |
| FCF | $9.16B | yfinance |
| ROE (ref) | 107.5% | yfinance |
| ROA (ref) | 20.7% | yfinance |
| Total Equity | N/A | yfinance |
| D/E Ratio | 139.01 | yfinance |
| Current Ratio | 1.50 | yfinance |
| EPS Trailing | 28.17 | yfinance |
| EPS Forward | 44.82 | yfinance |
| Earnings Growth | 169.9% | yfinance |
| Fwd P/E | 26.52 | yfinance |
| PEG Ratio | 1.54 | yfinance |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.32 | yfinance |
| P/S Ratio | 14.67 | yfinance |
| P/B Ratio (ref) | 34.04 | yfinance |
| Analyst Target | $1243.4286 | yfinance |
| Near-term ATM OI | 18 | ~45d chain |
| LEAPS ATM OI | 1,143 | ~431d chain |
| Near-term Spread % | 10.0% | ~45d chain |
| Has LEAPS | Yes | yfinance |
| Next Earnings | 2026-08-05 | yfinance |
| Worst 1-Day Drop | -14.1% | price history |
| >5% Drop Days | 4 | price history |
| RSI 14 | 57.2 | computed |
| MACD | 36.43 | computed |
| ADX 14 | 31.70 | computed |
| Relative Volume | 0.64 | computed |
| 52W High | $1249.45 | yfinance |
| 52W Low | $623.78 | yfinance |
| 1Y Return | +50.9% | yfinance |
| ⚠ yfinance IV 0.1% failed sanity check | ||
The CAUTIOUS YES verdict on LLY comes from a wide gap between excellent business fundamentals and a much weaker options-structure fit. Fundamentals score 8.9/10, among the strongest possible readings: revenue growth of 55.5%, operating margin of 49.4% (+4.3pp YoY), ROIC proxy (ROA) of 20.7%, manageable leverage (ND/EBITDA 1.0x, ICR 42.2x), and forward EPS growth of +59% (28.17 to 44.82). This is a company firing on all cylinders operationally, driven by the GLP-1/obesity franchise. The problem is what you pay for it and how well the options market supports a LEAPS structure. Valuation scores just 4.0/10, the weakest pillar, dragged down hard by a P/B of 34.04x (factor score 1.0) and EV/EBITDA of 30.3x. Forward P/E of 26.5x is not extreme for this growth rate, and analyst upside is thin at only +4.6% to a $1243 target, meaning the stock is already priced for a lot of the good news. Fortress Fit, at 30% weight, comes in at only 4.8/10 on 86% factor coverage, held back by very high capital outlay (~$118,858 per 100 shares), thin near-term options liquidity (OI of 18), and a wide 10% LEAPS spread, even though LEAPS open interest of 1,143 contracts is workable further out. Composite lands at 6.4/10, which the engine translates into CAUTIOUS YES with conviction capped at 5/10. This is a name where the underlying business earns the highest possible conviction, but the price you must pay and the mechanics of building an efficient LEAPS structure argue for a smaller, more patient position rather than full-size conviction.
Trend structure is textbook bullish: price sits above both the 50-DMA and 200-DMA, a golden cross is in place, and ADX of 31.7 confirms a genuinely strong trend (trend_alignment scored a perfect 10/10). But momentum is cooling under the hood, MACD sits below its signal line with a negative histogram, and RVOL of 0.6x shows volume is not confirming the move higher. RSI at 57 is merely warming up, not overbought, so there is no exhaustion signal yet, but the combination of a stalling MACD and light volume suggests the easy move is behind us for now. Price is trading near its 52-week high ($1249.45) with no defined resistance above, and support sits well below at 1079, 1052 and 1029, a roughly 9-13% cushion. The computed positioning signal of LEANING STRETCHED reflects a stock that has already returned 50.9% over the past year and is pressing against its highs with fading momentum. This is not a technical breakdown, but it argues against chasing size here; scaling in gradually or waiting for a pullback toward the 1080-1100 zone would improve entry quality for a fresh LEAPS structure.
| Scenario | Price Target | Timeline | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $1,030 | 6-9 months | A valuation reset (P/B 34x, EV/EBITDA 30x are priced for perfection) combined with any GLP-1 competitive setback or earnings disappointment sends price back toward the 1029-1079 support band. |
| Base | $1,290 | 12-15 months | Forward EPS growth of +59% continues to justify the current multiple, price grinds toward and slightly past the analyst consensus target of 1243 as obesity-drug demand holds up. |
| Bull | $1,480 | 18-24 months | Continued Zepbound/tirzepatide share gains, pipeline readouts, and margin expansion drive a re-rating higher despite the already-rich starting multiple. |
The dominant risk is valuation: a P/B of 34x and EV/EBITDA of 30.3x leave very little room for error, and analyst upside of only +4.6% suggests the sell side already sees the stock as close to fairly valued. Any stumble in the obesity-drug franchise, whether from Novo Nordisk's competing GLP-1s, emerging oral small-molecule competitors, or a pricing/IRA negotiation headline, could trigger an outsized multiple compression given how much good news is embedded in the price. From a structure standpoint, near-term options liquidity is thin (OI of just 18 contracts) and LEAPS spreads run wide at roughly 10%, meaning entries and exits will have real slippage cost. Capital outlay per 100 shares is also very high (~$118,858), which concentrates position sizing risk and makes this a capital-intensive fortress candidate. The technical stretched reading adds a near-term timing risk on top of the structural ones.
Fortress Fit scores 4.8/10 on 86% factor coverage, and note that IV data quality is flagged as hv_fallback, meaning the IV richness and IV-vs-HV readings are proxied from historical volatility rather than true options-market implied volatility, so treat the ~35% IV figure as an approximation, not a precise richness signal. Beta of 0.51 keeps single-stock gap risk low relative to the market, and gap history (worst day -14.1%, four >5% drops) is manageable for a healthcare name, but the combination of high capital outlay, illiquid near-term options, and a 10% LEAPS spread means execution will be costly and position sizing needs to stay conservative. This is workable as a fortress name for patient, well-capitalized structures using far-dated LEAPS, but it is not an efficient, low-friction candidate.
Overall: ALL PASSED
| Gate | Detail |
|---|---|
| ✓ G1 Price Data | $523.22 |
| ✓ G2 Market Cap | Market Cap: $120.64B |
| ✓ G3 Price History | 251 trading days (min: 100) |
| ✓ G4 Options | Options available (15 expirations) |
| ✓ G5 Delisting | No delisting signals |
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 25% | 0.3% MEASURED | 3.4 | 0.858 |
| Gross Margin | 15% | 9.9% [+7.5pp YoY] MEASURED | 1.0 | 0.150 |
| Operating Margin | 15% | 11.0% [+7.3pp YoY] MEASURED | 6.3 | 0.950 |
| Fcf Yield | 10% | 3.3% MEASURED | 5.3 | 0.531 |
| Roic | 15% | ROA=7.2% (ROIC fallback) MEASURED | 6.9 | 1.034 |
| Debt Health | 10% | ND/EBITDA=2.2x, ICR=7.6x, CR=1.14 MEASURED | 6.1 | 0.610 |
| Earnings Trajectory | 10% | EPS(T)=20.67, EPS(F)=32.08, Fwd=+55% MEASURED | 8.0 | 0.800 |
| 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 4.93 → Adjusted: 4.93 | Composite contribution: 4.93 × 0.40 = 1.972 | 1.972 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Alignment | 25% | above 50-DMA, below 200-DMA, death cross, ADX=17 MEASURED | 3.5 | 0.875 |
| Mean Reversion | 25% | RSI=50 (neutral), %B=53 (mid-band) MEASURED | 5.5 | 1.375 |
| Momentum | 20% | MACD above signal, histogram positive, ROC=-0.3% (flat/down) MEASURED | 6.6 | 1.320 |
| Positioning Sentiment | 20% | SI=1.8% (low), P/C=N/A NO DATA | 4.0 | 0.800 |
| Volume Confirmation | 10% | RVOL=0.5x (weak) MEASURED | 3.0 | 0.300 |
| 4/5 factors have data (80%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 4.67 → Adjusted: 4.67 | Composite contribution: 4.67 × 0.15 = 0.701 | 0.701 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iv Richness | 35% | 32% MEASURED | 6.0 | 2.093 |
| Iv Vs Hv | 10% | IV/HV=0.95x MEASURED | 4.5 | 0.450 |
| Beta Gap Risk | 10% | 0.11 MEASURED | 4.0 | 0.400 |
| Gap History | 10% | Worst day: -10.8%, >5% drops: 1 MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.500 |
| Capital Outlay | 5% | $52,322 per 100 shares MEASURED | 9.0 | 0.450 |
| Entry Timing | 10% | LEAPS available, earnings in 9d (IV elevated) MEASURED | 5.0 | 0.500 |
| Options Liquidity | 20% | near-term OI: no data, LEAPS OI 2,610 (~557d, workable), spread 20% (moderate) NO DATA | 5.0 | 1.000 |
| IV Source: IBKR Live 7/7 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.39 → Adjusted: 5.39 | Composite contribution: 5.39 × 0.30 = 1.617 | 1.617 | |||
| Factor | Weight | Raw Value | Score (0–10) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward Pe | 30% | 16.3x MEASURED | 6.0 | 1.800 |
| Peg Ratio | 20% | 1.11 MEASURED | 6.0 | 1.200 |
| Ev Ebitda | 20% | 17.4x MEASURED | 5.0 | 1.000 |
| Analyst Upside | 15% | +17.7% to $616 MEASURED | 6.3 | 0.940 |
| Ps Or Pb | 15% | P/B=16.07x MEASURED | 1.5 | 0.225 |
| 5/5 factors have data (100%) — No coverage penalty Pillar score: Raw: 5.17 → Adjusted: 5.17 | Composite contribution: 5.17 × 0.15 = 0.775 | 0.775 | |||
| Pillar | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fundamentals (40%) | 4.93 | 40% | 1.972 |
| Technicals (15%) | 4.67 | 15% | 0.701 |
| Fortress Fit (30%) | 5.39 | 30% | 1.617 |
| Valuation (15%) | 5.17 | 15% | 0.775 |
| Composite Score | 5.06 | ||
| Field | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Price | 523.22 | yfinance/IBKR |
| Market Cap | $120.64B | yfinance |
| IV (IBKR) | 31.6% | IBKR live |
| IV (yfinance) | — | yfinance options |
| HV 30d | 33.1% | computed |
| Beta | 0.113 | yfinance |
| Revenue Growth | 0.3% | yfinance |
| Gross Margin | 9.9% | yfinance |
| Operating Margin | 11.0% | yfinance |
| FCF | $3.99B | yfinance |
| ROE (ref) | 67.6% | yfinance |
| ROA (ref) | 7.2% | yfinance |
| Total Equity | N/A | yfinance |
| D/E Ratio | 276.37 | yfinance |
| Current Ratio | 1.14 | yfinance |
| EPS Trailing | 20.67 | yfinance |
| EPS Forward | 32.08 | yfinance |
| Earnings Growth | -11.5% | yfinance |
| Fwd P/E | 16.31 | yfinance |
| PEG Ratio | 1.11 | yfinance |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.44 | yfinance |
| P/S Ratio | 1.61 | yfinance |
| P/B Ratio (ref) | 16.07 | yfinance |
| Analyst Target | $615.7368 | yfinance |
| Near-term ATM OI | — (closed/no chain) | ~45d chain |
| LEAPS ATM OI | 2,610 | ~557d chain |
| Near-term Spread % | 19.7% | ~45d chain |
| Has LEAPS | Yes | yfinance |
| Next Earnings | 2026-07-23 | yfinance |
| Worst 1-Day Drop | -10.8% | price history |
| >5% Drop Days | 1 | price history |
| RSI 14 | 50.2 | computed |
| MACD | 0.35 | computed |
| ADX 14 | 17.00 | computed |
| Relative Volume | 0.48 | computed |
| 52W High | $692.0 | yfinance |
| 52W Low | $410.11 | yfinance |
| 1Y Return | +14.9% | yfinance |
| ⚠ yfinance IV 0.0% failed sanity check | ||
The engine lands on a NO with composite 5.1/10 and conviction 4/10, driven mainly by a mediocre Fundamentals score (4.9/10, 40% weight) and soft Technicals (4.7/10). Revenue growth is essentially flat at 0.3%, and while operating margin (11.0%, +7.3pp YoY) and gross margin (9.9%, +7.5pp YoY) are improving, the gross margin factor still scores just 1.0 on an absolute basis, dragging the pillar down. ROIC is a fallback proxy via ROA (7.2%), not a clean measurement, and debt health is acceptable but unremarkable (ND/EBITDA 2.2x, ICR 7.6x). The one bright spot is earnings trajectory (8.0/10), with forward EPS expected to jump 55% to 32.08, but that alone cannot offset the top-line stagnation. Technicals compound the caution: trend alignment is weak (3.5/10) with a death cross in place, ADX of 17 signaling no real trend strength, and volume confirmation is poor (3.0/10, RVOL 0.5x, meaning conviction behind recent moves is thin). Momentum is the only decent sub-factor (6.6/10) on a positive MACD cross, but ROC is flat-to-down. Note technicals coverage is 80%, with positioning/sentiment defaulted due to missing options put/call data, not because sentiment is actually bad. Fortress Fit (5.4/10, 30% weight) is middling rather than disqualifying, it clears the 4.0 override threshold so no forced CAUTIOUS YES applies. Valuation (5.2/10) is mixed: forward P/E of 16.3x and PEG of 1.11 look reasonable, but P/B of 16.07x scores poorly (1.5/10) reflecting a rich premium to book. Taken together, no single pillar is a screaming red flag, but nothing is strong enough to clear the bar for a full LEAPS commitment right now.
LMT trades at 523.22, comfortably above the 50-DMA but below the 200-DMA, a classic death cross setup that keeps trend alignment weak (3.5/10) despite an ADX of only 17, meaning there is no strong directional conviction either way. RSI at 50.2 and %B at 53 put the stock squarely in neutral, mean-reversion territory, no oversold bounce setup and no overbought fade setup. MACD is positive but the underlying ROC is flat to slightly negative, and volume confirmation is weak at 0.5x relative volume, so the recent price action lacks real participation behind it. Support sits at 510.1, then 493.55 and 470.82; resistance is at 537.69, 550.99, and the 52-week high near 636.39. With earnings just 9 days out and IV already elevated ahead of that event, timing an entry now means paying up for volatility into a binary catalyst, not an ideal setup for initiating a long-dated structure.
| Scenario | Price Target | Timeline | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $470 | 12 months | A miss on the upcoming earnings print combined with continued flat revenue growth and program delays (F-35 or missile segments) could break the 493-510 support shelf and retest the 470 level. |
| Base | $575 | 12-18 months | Modest single-digit revenue growth with continued margin expansion and steady defense budget tailwinds gets LMT toward the low end of the analyst target range near the 550-575 zone. |
| Bull | $636 | 18-24 months | Accelerating international demand, buybacks, and the 55% forward EPS jump materializing cleanly could push shares back toward the 52-week high of 636.39. |
The core risk is that fundamentals are not actually improving in a way that matters to the market, revenue growth of 0.3% is effectively stagnant for a company this size, and the forward EPS jump of 55% needs to be delivered without disappointment given how much is already priced into the 16.3x forward multiple. Program-specific risk (F-35 sustainment costs, classified program delays, defense budget politics) is not explicitly captured in the quant factors and could move the stock sharply around the earnings date in 9 days. Technically, the death cross and weak ADX mean there is no reliable trend to lean on, and RVOL of 0.5x suggests any recent strength lacks broad participation, so reversals could happen quickly. The P/B of 16.07x also flags that the stock offers little downside cushion from a tangible asset standpoint if sentiment sours.
Fortress Fit scores 5.4/10, above the 4.0 override threshold, so it does not force a CAUTIOUS YES cap, but it is not compelling either. IV richness (32%) is reasonable, but IV/HV of 0.95x shows implied vol is not offering much premium over realized, a lukewarm setup for LEAPS-based option selling. Beta is very low at 0.113, which is unusual for a defense name and helps reduce gap risk, and the worst historical single-day drop was a manageable -10.8%. Capital outlay is high in absolute terms ($52,322 per 100 shares) but scores well (9.0/10) on the model's terms. Options liquidity and near-term open interest data were unavailable and defaulted to neutral, so this should not be read as a liquidity problem, LEAPS open interest of 2,610 contracts around 557 days out is workable, though the 20% spread is on the moderate-to-wide side. Entry timing is complicated by earnings landing in just 9 days with IV already elevated into that event.
Disclaimer: This report is auto-generated for informational purposes only. Verdicts and conviction scores are computed by a deterministic quantitative scoring engine (4-pillar model with hard gates). Narrative sections are generated by Anthropic Claude and may contain errors. Fundamental data from Yahoo Finance. IV data from IBKR (where available) or Yahoo Finance options. All data subject to delays. Options trading involves substantial risk. Always do your own due diligence.