Portfolio Risk & Liquidation Cockpit
Tue 25 Aug 2026 00:52 SGT (ET 2026-08-24) · live IBKR account summary + positions + greeks, TIMS-race liquidation model (margin shrinks as prices fall). Read-only. Betas and margin intervals are the measured Risk Navigator values; each account's t0 margin is calibrated to the broker's own number.
Main 3.9x
NLV $1,736,589 · excess $782,978
PM floor ~-34% to ~-37%
Neville 4.8x
NLV $677,554 · excess $316,363
PM floor ~-29% to not within -60%
Joint 3.6x
NLV $823,618 · excess $357,382
PM floor ~-44% to ~-47%
Retired 3.4x
NLV $395,525 · excess $164,436
PM floor ~-21% to ~-25%
Cross-account roll-up
| Account | Net Liq | Maint margin | Excess Liq | Cushion | Cash / loan | Gross position | Beta Delta $ | Leverage |
| Main | $1,736,589 | $951,015 | $782,978 | 0.45 | $851,674 | $3,291,107 | $6,704,982 | 3.86x |
| Neville | $677,554 | $361,114 | $316,363 | 0.47 | $294,150 | $1,240,646 | $3,255,885 | 4.81x |
| Joint | $823,618 | $466,197 | $357,382 | 0.43 | -$331,630 | $1,705,566 | $2,939,331 | 3.57x |
| Retired | $395,525 | $231,089 | $164,436 | 0.42 | $483,727 | $643,273 | $1,336,823 | 3.38x |
| TOTAL | $3,633,286 | $2,009,415 | $1,621,159 | | $1,297,922 | $6,880,592 | $14,237,022 | 3.92x |
Every 1% move in the S&P is worth about $142,370 to the book (Beta Delta $ / 100). Leverage is Beta Delta $ over Net Liq: the book behaves like $14,237,022 of S&P-equivalent exposure on $3,633,286 of equity.
Liquidation distance and scenario grid (corrected TIMS-race model)
| Account | NLV now | NLV -10% | -20% | -30% | -40% | Excess -20% | Excess -30% | IBKR liquidation (flat / crash-vol) | ~$100k PM floor (flat / crash-vol) |
| Main | $1,736,589 | $1,064,095 (-39%) | $489,081 (-72%) | $156,002 (-91%) | $59,721 (-97%) | $137,497 | -$8,369 | -30% / -33% | ~-34% / ~-37% |
| Neville | $677,554 | $383,544 (-43%) | $176,092 (-74%) | $94,763 (-86%) | $105,875 (-84%) | $64,498 | $30,891 | none within -50% / none within -50% | ~-29% / not within -60% |
| Joint | $823,618 | $535,854 (-35%) | $304,411 (-63%) | $168,244 (-80%) | $111,869 (-86%) | $156,769 | $104,637 | none within -50% / none within -50% | ~-44% / ~-47% |
| Retired | $395,525 | $245,841 (-38%) | $107,076 (-73%) | $33,924 (-91%) | $16,499 (-96%) | $38,155 | $11,736 | none within -50% / none within -50% | ~-21% / ~-25% |
| TOTAL | $3,633,286 | $2,229,334 | $1,076,660 (-70%) | $452,932 (-88%) | $293,964 | $396,918 | $138,895 | |
Moves are beta-weighted: an S&P -20% is a ~-55% move in the crypto/miner names at their betas. "Liquidation" is the first move where excess liquidity hits zero (crash-vol spikes IV as prices fall with put skew (puts ramp harder than calls, crypto hardest), which is realistic. Flat holds IV constant (a crash with no vol spike, which cannot happen), so for this net-long-volatility book it UNDERSTATES survivability; the truth sits between the two, nearer crash-vol for the well-hedged accounts. The PM floor is where NLV drops below ~$100k and IBKR reverts the account to Reg-T, which force-reduces it regardless of the crossover; it is the effective liquidation point for the thin accounts. Both liquidation and PM-floor columns now share the same vol assumption (flat / crash-vol), so read each as a range. House margin hikes on volatile names in a real crash pull both ends closer.
Beta Delta $ concentration (all accounts)
| Name | Beta Delta $ | % of book | Loss at S&P -20% (linear) |
| BMNR | $2,545,808 | 18% | -$509,162 |
| MU | $1,702,593 | 12% | -$340,519 |
| MARA | $1,305,687 | 9% | -$261,137 |
| IREN | $1,015,475 | 7% | -$203,095 |
| GLXY | $901,925 | 6% | -$180,385 |
| COIN | $837,990 | 6% | -$167,598 |
| SPY | $659,129 | 5% | -$131,826 |
| GOOG | $641,034 | 5% | -$128,207 |
| MSTR | $415,900 | 3% | -$83,180 |
| SNDK | $405,335 | 3% | -$81,067 |
| IBIT | $382,527 | 3% | -$76,505 |
| RKLB | $341,789 | 2% | -$68,358 |
| ETHA | $239,928 | 2% | -$47,986 |
| META | $238,821 | 2% | -$47,764 |
| Other (28 names, table below) | $2,603,081 | 18% | -$520,616 |
| Total | $14,237,022 | 100% | -$2,847,404 |
The other 28 names
| Name | Beta Delta $ | % of book | Loss at S&P -20% (linear) |
| TSLA | $218,582 | 2% | -$43,716 |
| COPX | $210,325 | 1% | -$42,065 |
| DELL | $199,793 | 1% | -$39,959 |
| AMD | $196,758 | 1% | -$39,352 |
| AMZN | $179,857 | 1% | -$35,971 |
| NVDA | $172,758 | 1% | -$34,552 |
| SPCX | $158,233 | 1% | -$31,647 |
| QCOM | $131,458 | 1% | -$26,292 |
| HIMS | $130,173 | 1% | -$26,035 |
| IGV | $123,327 | 1% | -$24,665 |
| NOW | $115,225 | 1% | -$23,045 |
| GLD | $111,130 | 1% | -$22,226 |
| CRWV | $104,476 | 1% | -$20,895 |
| INTC | $103,798 | 1% | -$20,760 |
| CLSK | $76,542 | 1% | -$15,308 |
| PATH | $74,608 | 1% | -$14,922 |
| ENPH | $65,908 | 0% | -$13,182 |
| SBET | $51,917 | 0% | -$10,383 |
| APP | $46,007 | 0% | -$9,201 |
| NEM | $26,125 | 0% | -$5,225 |
| QUBT | $25,097 | 0% | -$5,019 |
| MSTX | $24,802 | 0% | -$4,960 |
| BTBT | $19,531 | 0% | -$3,906 |
| BTCS | $15,369 | 0% | -$3,074 |
| CAN | $11,903 | 0% | -$2,381 |
| EOSE | $9,361 | 0% | -$1,872 |
| ECHO | $19 | 0% | -$4 |
| OPEN1 | $0 | 0% | +$0 |
| Other subtotal | $2,603,081 | 18% | -$520,616 |
Assignment radar (short puts near early exercise)
| Account | Short put | Contracts | Mark | Time value / sh | Carry / sh / yr | Cushion (tv/carry) | Cash if assigned | Account cash | Status |
| Joint | OPEN1 10P | 35 | 6.80 | -3.20 | 0.40 | -8.0x | $35,000 | -$331,630 | exercise rational now |
| Joint | EOSE 15P | 10 | 11.65 | 0.07 | 0.60 | 0.1x | $15,000 | -$331,630 | exercise rational now |
| Joint | BTBT 4P | 100 | 2.51 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.5x | $40,000 | -$331,630 | exercise rational now |
| Neville | SPCX 195P | 5 | 65.97 | 6.88 | 7.80 | 0.9x | $97,500 | $294,150 | exercise rational now |
| Neville | GOOG 405P | 5 | 73.40 | 16.14 | 16.20 | 1.0x | $202,500 | $294,150 | exercise rational now |
| Joint | QUBT 22P | 25 | 14.60 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 1.0x | $55,000 | -$331,630 | watch |
| Retired | APP 540P | 1 | 263.30 | 24.89 | 21.60 | 1.2x | $54,000 | $483,727 | watch |
| Retired | RKLB 135P | 6 | 73.45 | 7.86 | 5.40 | 1.5x | $81,000 | $483,727 | watch |
A deep-in-the-money put with less time value than the interest on its strike (cushion < 1.0x) is rational for the holder to exercise early; you would be assigned the stock at the strike and must fund it in cash (red = the account cannot, so it goes on a margin loan). Roll it down or buy it back to remove the overhang on your timing.
Shares-as-margin-valve (the fallback lever)
| Account | Stock | Shares | Value now | Maint freed if sold now | if sold at -20% | at -40% |
| Joint | BMNR | 8,800 | $215,952 | $110,136 | $45,376 | $2,203 |
| Main | BMNR | 7,500 | $184,050 | $93,866 | $38,673 | $1,877 |
| Joint | IBIT | 5,000 | $224,200 | $58,292 | $41,504 | $24,716 |
| Joint | MSTR | 1,000 | $123,430 | $53,075 | $24,096 | $1,061 |
| Main | MARA | 10,000 | $115,600 | $33,524 | $13,208 | $670 |
| Neville | RKLB | 1,000 | $69,410 | $20,129 | $8,011 | $403 |
| Main | MSTR | 300 | $37,029 | $15,922 | $7,229 | $318 |
| Main | SBET | 3,000 | $24,960 | $9,235 | $5,393 | $1,552 |
| Total | $994,631 | $394,178 | $183,490 | $32,800 |
Selling stock frees roughly its margin interval times its value, and the position carries no convexity, so it is the cleanest maintenance lever. But the valve shrinks in the drawdown where you would pull it (a stock worth half as much frees half as much margin); it is a cushion, not a rescue, and it does nothing for the PM floor since it converts stock to cash without moving NLV.
Recovery tracker (whole-book, all accounts)
IBIT spot 44.84 · unrealized on the book -$282,705 · breakeven vs today $44.84 · vs basis $83.55
| IBIT price | $45 | $60 | $80 | $120 |
| Change vs today | +$955 | +$99,205 | +$253,198 | +$608,609 |
| vs original basis | -$281,751 | -$183,501 | -$29,507 | +$325,904 |
COIN spot 184.46 · unrealized on the book -$203,699 · breakeven vs today $2213.52 · vs basis $2213.52
| COIN price | $200 | $300 | $400 | $600 |
| Change vs today | +$20,116 | -$33,324 | -$127,503 | -$259,508 |
| vs original basis | -$183,583 | -$237,023 | -$331,202 | -$463,207 |
MARA spot 11.56 · unrealized on the book -$2,006 · breakeven vs today $11.56 · vs basis $11.61
| MARA price | $15 | $20 | $25 | $40 | $100 |
| Change vs today | +$134,047 | +$344,853 | +$567,595 | +$1,271,833 | +$4,227,417 |
| vs original basis | +$132,041 | +$342,847 | +$565,589 | +$1,269,826 | +$4,225,411 |
BMNR spot 24.54 · unrealized on the book -$537,992 · breakeven vs today $24.54 · vs basis $38.96
| BMNR price | $25 | $30 | $50 | $70 | $100 | $150 |
| Change vs today | +$16,283 | +$196,968 | +$984,393 | +$1,840,859 | +$3,179,737 | +$5,461,602 |
| vs original basis | -$521,709 | -$341,024 | +$446,402 | +$1,302,867 | +$2,641,745 | +$4,923,610 |
Instant reval (if the name gapped to that price today), Black-Scholes at each leg's implied vol, all accounts, shares plus every option leg. "Breakeven vs today" is the price at which holding neither gains nor loses from here; it drifts up over time as near-ATM long calls burn time value. "Vs basis" adds back the unrealized loss already on the book (approximate; uses IBKR average cost).
Model: module_risk_cockpit (tested). Betas and intervals measured from the 2026-08-16 Risk Navigator exports; refresh occasionally. Off-RTH marks are FROZEN/DELAYED and greeks are Black-Scholes fallbacks; re-run in RTH for live greeks. Not licensed advice; read-only, no orders.