Portfolio Risk & Liquidation Cockpit

Tue 25 Aug 2026 00:52 SGT (ET 2026-08-24) · live IBKR account summary + positions + greeks, TIMS-race liquidation model (margin shrinks as prices fall). Read-only. Betas and margin intervals are the measured Risk Navigator values; each account's t0 margin is calibrated to the broker's own number.
Main   3.9x
NLV $1,736,589 · excess $782,978
PM floor ~-34% to ~-37%
Neville   4.8x
NLV $677,554 · excess $316,363
PM floor ~-29% to not within -60%
Joint   3.6x
NLV $823,618 · excess $357,382
PM floor ~-44% to ~-47%
Retired   3.4x
NLV $395,525 · excess $164,436
PM floor ~-21% to ~-25%

Cross-account roll-up

AccountNet LiqMaint marginExcess LiqCushionCash / loanGross positionBeta Delta $Leverage
Main$1,736,589$951,015$782,9780.45$851,674$3,291,107$6,704,9823.86x
Neville$677,554$361,114$316,3630.47$294,150$1,240,646$3,255,8854.81x
Joint$823,618$466,197$357,3820.43-$331,630$1,705,566$2,939,3313.57x
Retired$395,525$231,089$164,4360.42$483,727$643,273$1,336,8233.38x
TOTAL$3,633,286$2,009,415$1,621,159$1,297,922$6,880,592$14,237,0223.92x
Every 1% move in the S&P is worth about $142,370 to the book (Beta Delta $ / 100). Leverage is Beta Delta $ over Net Liq: the book behaves like $14,237,022 of S&P-equivalent exposure on $3,633,286 of equity.

Liquidation distance and scenario grid (corrected TIMS-race model)

AccountNLV nowNLV -10%-20%-30%-40%Excess -20%Excess -30%IBKR liquidation (flat / crash-vol)~$100k PM floor (flat / crash-vol)
Main$1,736,589$1,064,095 (-39%)$489,081 (-72%)$156,002 (-91%)$59,721 (-97%)$137,497-$8,369-30% / -33%~-34% / ~-37%
Neville$677,554$383,544 (-43%)$176,092 (-74%)$94,763 (-86%)$105,875 (-84%)$64,498$30,891none within -50% / none within -50%~-29% / not within -60%
Joint$823,618$535,854 (-35%)$304,411 (-63%)$168,244 (-80%)$111,869 (-86%)$156,769$104,637none within -50% / none within -50%~-44% / ~-47%
Retired$395,525$245,841 (-38%)$107,076 (-73%)$33,924 (-91%)$16,499 (-96%)$38,155$11,736none within -50% / none within -50%~-21% / ~-25%
TOTAL$3,633,286$2,229,334$1,076,660 (-70%)$452,932 (-88%)$293,964$396,918$138,895
Moves are beta-weighted: an S&P -20% is a ~-55% move in the crypto/miner names at their betas. "Liquidation" is the first move where excess liquidity hits zero (crash-vol spikes IV as prices fall with put skew (puts ramp harder than calls, crypto hardest), which is realistic. Flat holds IV constant (a crash with no vol spike, which cannot happen), so for this net-long-volatility book it UNDERSTATES survivability; the truth sits between the two, nearer crash-vol for the well-hedged accounts. The PM floor is where NLV drops below ~$100k and IBKR reverts the account to Reg-T, which force-reduces it regardless of the crossover; it is the effective liquidation point for the thin accounts. Both liquidation and PM-floor columns now share the same vol assumption (flat / crash-vol), so read each as a range. House margin hikes on volatile names in a real crash pull both ends closer.

Beta Delta $ concentration (all accounts)

NameBeta Delta $% of bookLoss at S&P -20% (linear)
BMNR$2,545,80818%-$509,162
MU$1,702,59312%-$340,519
MARA$1,305,6879%-$261,137
IREN$1,015,4757%-$203,095
GLXY$901,9256%-$180,385
COIN$837,9906%-$167,598
SPY$659,1295%-$131,826
GOOG$641,0345%-$128,207
MSTR$415,9003%-$83,180
SNDK$405,3353%-$81,067
IBIT$382,5273%-$76,505
RKLB$341,7892%-$68,358
ETHA$239,9282%-$47,986
META$238,8212%-$47,764
Other (28 names, table below)$2,603,08118%-$520,616
Total$14,237,022100%-$2,847,404

The other 28 names

NameBeta Delta $% of bookLoss at S&P -20% (linear)
TSLA$218,5822%-$43,716
COPX$210,3251%-$42,065
DELL$199,7931%-$39,959
AMD$196,7581%-$39,352
AMZN$179,8571%-$35,971
NVDA$172,7581%-$34,552
SPCX$158,2331%-$31,647
QCOM$131,4581%-$26,292
HIMS$130,1731%-$26,035
IGV$123,3271%-$24,665
NOW$115,2251%-$23,045
GLD$111,1301%-$22,226
CRWV$104,4761%-$20,895
INTC$103,7981%-$20,760
CLSK$76,5421%-$15,308
PATH$74,6081%-$14,922
ENPH$65,9080%-$13,182
SBET$51,9170%-$10,383
APP$46,0070%-$9,201
NEM$26,1250%-$5,225
QUBT$25,0970%-$5,019
MSTX$24,8020%-$4,960
BTBT$19,5310%-$3,906
BTCS$15,3690%-$3,074
CAN$11,9030%-$2,381
EOSE$9,3610%-$1,872
ECHO$190%-$4
OPEN1$00%+$0
Other subtotal$2,603,08118%-$520,616

Assignment radar (short puts near early exercise)

AccountShort putContractsMarkTime value / shCarry / sh / yrCushion (tv/carry)Cash if assignedAccount cashStatus
JointOPEN1 10P356.80-3.200.40-8.0x$35,000-$331,630exercise rational now
JointEOSE 15P1011.650.070.600.1x$15,000-$331,630exercise rational now
JointBTBT 4P1002.510.080.160.5x$40,000-$331,630exercise rational now
NevilleSPCX 195P565.976.887.800.9x$97,500$294,150exercise rational now
NevilleGOOG 405P573.4016.1416.201.0x$202,500$294,150exercise rational now
JointQUBT 22P2514.600.880.881.0x$55,000-$331,630watch
RetiredAPP 540P1263.3024.8921.601.2x$54,000$483,727watch
RetiredRKLB 135P673.457.865.401.5x$81,000$483,727watch
A deep-in-the-money put with less time value than the interest on its strike (cushion < 1.0x) is rational for the holder to exercise early; you would be assigned the stock at the strike and must fund it in cash (red = the account cannot, so it goes on a margin loan). Roll it down or buy it back to remove the overhang on your timing.

Shares-as-margin-valve (the fallback lever)

AccountStockSharesValue nowMaint freed if sold nowif sold at -20%at -40%
JointBMNR8,800$215,952$110,136$45,376$2,203
MainBMNR7,500$184,050$93,866$38,673$1,877
JointIBIT5,000$224,200$58,292$41,504$24,716
JointMSTR1,000$123,430$53,075$24,096$1,061
MainMARA10,000$115,600$33,524$13,208$670
NevilleRKLB1,000$69,410$20,129$8,011$403
MainMSTR300$37,029$15,922$7,229$318
MainSBET3,000$24,960$9,235$5,393$1,552
Total$994,631$394,178$183,490$32,800
Selling stock frees roughly its margin interval times its value, and the position carries no convexity, so it is the cleanest maintenance lever. But the valve shrinks in the drawdown where you would pull it (a stock worth half as much frees half as much margin); it is a cushion, not a rescue, and it does nothing for the PM floor since it converts stock to cash without moving NLV.

Recovery tracker (whole-book, all accounts)

IBIT   spot 44.84 · unrealized on the book -$282,705 · breakeven vs today $44.84 · vs basis $83.55

IBIT price$45$60$80$120
Change vs today+$955+$99,205+$253,198+$608,609
vs original basis-$281,751-$183,501-$29,507+$325,904

COIN   spot 184.46 · unrealized on the book -$203,699 · breakeven vs today $2213.52 · vs basis $2213.52

COIN price$200$300$400$600
Change vs today+$20,116-$33,324-$127,503-$259,508
vs original basis-$183,583-$237,023-$331,202-$463,207

MARA   spot 11.56 · unrealized on the book -$2,006 · breakeven vs today $11.56 · vs basis $11.61

MARA price$15$20$25$40$100
Change vs today+$134,047+$344,853+$567,595+$1,271,833+$4,227,417
vs original basis+$132,041+$342,847+$565,589+$1,269,826+$4,225,411

BMNR   spot 24.54 · unrealized on the book -$537,992 · breakeven vs today $24.54 · vs basis $38.96

BMNR price$25$30$50$70$100$150
Change vs today+$16,283+$196,968+$984,393+$1,840,859+$3,179,737+$5,461,602
vs original basis-$521,709-$341,024+$446,402+$1,302,867+$2,641,745+$4,923,610
Instant reval (if the name gapped to that price today), Black-Scholes at each leg's implied vol, all accounts, shares plus every option leg. "Breakeven vs today" is the price at which holding neither gains nor loses from here; it drifts up over time as near-ATM long calls burn time value. "Vs basis" adds back the unrealized loss already on the book (approximate; uses IBKR average cost).
Model: module_risk_cockpit (tested). Betas and intervals measured from the 2026-08-16 Risk Navigator exports; refresh occasionally. Off-RTH marks are FROZEN/DELAYED and greeks are Black-Scholes fallbacks; re-run in RTH for live greeks. Not licensed advice; read-only, no orders.