If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.65/share ($10,567 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $19.49.
| Door | New strike | Tenor | Est credit/sh | P25-P75 | POP | Survival |
|---|
| Credit Out | $19.00 | 14d | +$0.22 | $0.18 to $0.39 | 67% | 52% |
| Up And Out | $19.12 | 14d | +$0.16 | $0.10 to $0.33 | 67% | 55% |
| Ss Escape | $22.62 | 42d | +$0.02 | $-0.19 to $0.22 | 83% | 80% |
| Reliable Up | $21.62 | 42d | +$0.24 | $0.07 to $0.44 | 80% | 75% |
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.