If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.67/share ($10,968 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $19.49.
| Door | New strike | Tenor | Est credit/sh | P25-P75 | POP | Survival |
|---|
| Credit Out | $19.00 | 14d | +$0.23 | $0.21 to $0.42 | 67% | 52% |
| Up And Out | $19.20 | 14d | +$0.14 | $0.09 to $0.32 | 69% | 56% |
| Ss Escape | $21.70 | 42d | +$0.23 | $0.05 to $0.44 | 80% | 75% |
| Safety Up | $22.70 | 42d | -$0.03 | $-0.25 to $0.19 | 84% | 81% |
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.