If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.51/share ($8,309 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $16.88.
| Door | New strike | Tenor | Est credit/sh | P25-P75 | POP | Survival |
|---|
| Credit Out | $16.50 | 13d | +$0.33 | $0.27 to $0.38 | 68% | 53% |
| Up And Out | $16.94 | 13d | +$0.13 | $0.03 to $0.17 | 72% | 61% |
| Ss Escape | $20.44 | 41d | +$0.02 | $-0.21 to $0.03 | 85% | 83% |
| Safety Up | $20.94 | 34d | -$0.18 | $-0.43 to $-0.18 | 89% | 88% |
| Reliable Up | $19.44 | 41d | +$0.23 | $0.04 to $0.26 | 82% | 78% |
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.